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This Date In Transaction History: Cubs Sign Yu Darvish

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On February 13th, 2018 the Cubs officially announced a six-year, $126MM agreement with free agent Yu Darvish. After splitting the 2017 season between the Rangers and Dodgers, Darvish was the top free agent on MLBTR’s list of available players that winter. Little did we know at the time that Darvish would spent only half the length of that contract in a Cubs uniform.

At the time, Darvish seemed like a much-needed injection of frontline rotation talent for the Cubs. After falling to the Dodgers in the NLCS in their title defense season, swiping Darvish from the Dodgers had the potential to swing a potential rematch in seasons to come.

That rematch wouldn’t come to pass, however. Darvish would make just nine starts for the Cubs in the 2018 season. Though they won 95 games, Joe Maddon’s club stumbled into a wild card spot before losing the wild card game to the Rockies on a Tony Wolters RBI single in the 13th inning.

The timing was never quite right for Darvish and the Cubs. He was better in his second season in Chicago, but not good enough to change the fortunes of their fledgling contender. Darvish finished second for the NL Cy Young during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but they fell in the first round of the playoffs to the Marlins.

Though Darvish was incredible during that 2020 season (2.01 ERA/2.23 FIP over 76 innings), the Cubs chose to sell high on their one-time free agent prize, sending him to the Padres for a quartet of teenagers. The Cubs were largely criticized at the time of the deal, though the full impact of the move won’t be known for many years yet. There’s no doubt that Chicago needed an injection of youth for a system that had largely stagnated during their years of contention. Further, in terms of maximizing their assets, Darvish was their most valuable trade piece at the time.

And though Darvish’s arsenal is robust, and he’s among the strikeout leaders on a per batter basis year-by-year, his bottom line run prevention numbers don’t necessarily paint him as one of the best pitchers in the league.

He was certainly a touch disappointing in his first season with the Padres, posting just 1.4 rWAR/2.9 fWAR despite making 30 starts and tossing 166 1/3 innings. The 34-year-old wasn’t bad in 2021, but with a 4.22 ERA/3.90 FIP, Darvish looks more like a solid mid-rotation arm than a true frontline ace, even with an impressive 29.2 percent strikeout rate and 6.5 percent walk rate.

The fact is, outside of his tremendous 2020 season, Darvish has been closer to this 2021 self for most of his Major League career – at least since missing the 2015 season. Still, that makes for a valuable rotation arm that ought to play a valuable role for the Padres over the next two seasons, even in his age-35 and age-36 seasons.

At the same time, it’s hard to fault the Cubs now for selling when they did. MLBTR readers did not like the deal, with the most popular grades being a C and D at the time. But in retrospect, the Cubs were clearly more than a Darvish away from competing last season.

On the whole, even though they traded him halfway through the deal, the Cubs probably still feel pretty good about their decision to sign Darvish. On the field, he gave them 294 2/3 innings over three seasons with a 3.60 ERA/3.77 FIP, totaling 5.8 fWAR. Those aggregate numbers are solid, though they came in the shape of one subpar season, one stellar season, and one middle-of-the-road year in 2019.

Taking a more holistic approach, you can give Darvish credit for also netting the organization four prospects who may still provide a boost to Cubs teams down the road. As of right now, Fangraphs has the four prospects the Cubs got for Darvish ranked as their #3, #5, #37, and #48 ranked prospects in their system. Will those four prospects end up being more valuable than the final three years of Darvish’s free agent deal? That’s a question for a future date. In terms of the free agent deal that was signed four years ago today, the move didn’t turn out exactly the way the Cubs perhaps wanted, but they should count it as a win nonetheless.

Padres Could Find Themselves In Position To Deal From Catching Depth After Lockout

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As the non-tender deadline approached in late November, the Padres and Marlins lined up on a minor trade. San Diego acquired catcher Jorge Alfaro for cash considerations or a player to be named later, not long after Miami had traded for Jacob Stallings to replace Alfaro as their primary backstop.

To some extent, it was a predictable acquisition. San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has shown a continued affinity for bringing in players whom the Rangers acquired during his time as a key figure in the Texas scouting department. Alfaro, whom the Rangers signed as an amateur in 2010 and who later blossomed into a top prospect, qualifies. Yet the Marlins had clearly grown dissatisfied with his up-and-down performance at the big league level, and they seemed likely to non-tender him in lieu of paying a projected $2.7MM arbitration salary if they were unable to find a taker in trade.

Yet it also marked something of a curious move for the Friars, who already had three catchers on the 40-man roster. Alfaro is out of minor league option years, meaning he’ll need to break camp with the club or be cut loose. At first glance, however, he’d seem to be fourth on the catching depth chart. Austin Nola’s first full season in San Diego was derailed by injury, but he’s an above-average backstop on both sides of the ball when healthy. Víctor Caratini didn’t have a great showing last year, but he has a strong relationship with Yu Darvish and was behind the plate for 29 of Darvish’s 30 starts last season. Top prospect Luis Campusano doesn’t have much more to prove in the minors after hitting .295/.365/.541 across 326 plate appearances as a 22-year-old in Triple-A.

With Alfaro needing to be on the big league club or cut loose, where does he fit? Perhaps just off the roster bubble. San Diego didn’t give up much to acquire Alfaro, after all. Arbitration salaries aren’t fully guaranteed until Opening Day, with players cut loose during the first half of Spring Training only entitled to thirty days’ termination pay (around one-sixth of their full season salary). In Alfaro’s case, that’s likely to be a touch under $500K. Maybe Preller and his staff saw an opportunity to get a player they like in the building, and they’re willing to move on from him before the season starts if there’s simply no room on the roster.

That said, San Diego valued Alfaro enough to acquire him before the non-tender deadline, swooping in to grab his rights before Miami cut him loose and allowed him free rein to negotiate with all 30 teams. They did so knowing he’s out of options, so they’ve certainly contemplated scenarios where he breaks camp. It seems unlikely they’d carry each of Nola, Alfaro, Caratini and Campusano on the active roster, however.

Nola and Alfaro do each have some experience at first base and in the corner outfield; Nola can play a bit of second or third base as well. That’d perhaps give manager Bob Melvin some flexibility, but both players should spend the bulk of their time at catcher. Nola’s a solid defender behind the dish, and bouncing him to less valuable positions around the diamond to accommodate Caratini or Alfaro is probably less valuable than simply deploying Nola as the primary catcher. Alfaro could see some action rotating through the corners, but he’s spent far more time behind the plate than anywhere else (2,809 2/3 MLB innings at catcher, 144 2/3 innings in the outfield, 27 1/3 frames at first base) and probably isn’t a good enough hitter to live up to the offensive burden of regularly manning a corner.

Maybe the Padres keep Nola, Caratini and Alfaro around and option Campusano back to Triple-A to start the season. So long as he continues to perform well in El Paso, there’ll be pressure to get him major league reps. Campusano, whom Baseball America recently ranked the sport’s #53 overall prospect, arguably already warrants an everyday look. One could argue the Padres aren’t in position to provide that, and San Diego should at least consider the possibility of making him available on the trade market.

San Diego isn’t going to trade a prospect of that caliber expressly because they acquired Alfaro for a song, of course. Alfaro could be let go; the same is perhaps true of Caratini (who still has a minor league option remaining), although the organization no doubt values his rapport with Darvish. Yet having a pair of veteran depth options on hand behind Nola might give Preller and his staff more comfort in contemplating a Campusano trade, which might prove a way to bring back needed outfield help.

It wouldn’t be the first time Campusano’s name were to come up in trade talks. The Padres and Nationals discussed him last summer as part of San Diego’s (ultimately unsuccessful) efforts to land Trea Turner and Max Scherzer at the deadline. Campusano was also at least mentioned in talks about the Cubs assuming some or all of Eric Hosmer’s contract.

Shedding the money due to Hosmer would certainly still be of interest to the Padres, although it seems unlikely they’d part with Campusano solely as a way to cut payroll. We’ve seen instances of teams “buying” a prospect by taking on an undesirable contract (the Giants’ Will Wilson/Zack Cozart deal, the Red Sox/Brewers Jackie Bradley Jr. and prospects for Hunter Renfroe swap are examples), but the young players involved in those moves weren’t as highly-regarded as Campusano currently is. If there’s an opportunity to move Campusano and Hosmer in a trade that also brings back MLB help — they and the Rangers reportedly kicked around frameworks of a deal that could’ve sent Hosmer and prospect Robert Hassell III to Texas for Joey Gallo last summer — San Diego could be more amenable.

However the situation resolves itself, it seems unlikely the Padres will carry all of Nola, Campusano, Caratini and Alfaro on the 40-man roster for too long after the lockout. Perhaps they’re simply stockpiling players of interest and will cut bait with one of the veteran depth options if they’re faced with a roster squeeze. But it also seems the Friars have enough short-term depth to withstand a possible Campusano trade, and we’ve repeatedly seen Preller’s willingness to act boldly if the right opportunity presents itself.

Adrián González Announces Retirement

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Longtime big-league first baseman Adrián González, who played for the Rangers, Padres, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Mets across 15 MLB seasons, officially announced his retirement today on his personal Instagram.

Gonzalez last played in the majors in 2018, but he was active as recently as this past season, playing 43 games with the Mexican League’s Mariachis de Guadalajara and posting a .340/.412/.531 batting line in 187 trips to the plate. He also represented Mexico in the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo (held in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic), where he collected three hits and a walk in 12 plate appearances.

Selected by the Marlins with the first overall pick in the 2000 amateur draft, González was part of a three-player package dealt to the Rangers at the 2003 trade deadline in exchange for Ugueth Urbina, a key piece in the Marlins’ memorable — if unlikely — 2003 title run. González debuted in Arlington the following year but never established himself as a regular in the Rangers lineup and was dealt again (this time with Chris Young and Terrmel Sledge) to the Padres for pitchers Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka. A San Diego native who attended Eastlake High School in nearby Chula Vista, González blossomed with his hometown club, beginning a run of four consecutive All-Star selections in 2008 and five consecutive seasons garnering MVP votes in 2007.

With only a year of control remaining, the Padres traded González to the Red Sox ahead of the 2011 season, and he agreed to a seven-year, $154MM extension in April. Despite strong production in Boston — including winning a Silver Slugger and leading the majors with 213 hits in 2011 — the swooning Red Sox shipped González (along with Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Nick Punto) to the Dodgers at the 2012 trade deadline in what amounted to a salary dump. Alongside a rotation helmed by Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun Jin Ryu, González, Crawford and Beckett solidified the Dodgers’ roster and inaugurated the club’s present run as perennial contenders in the National League.  Guggenheim Baseball Management, the present Dodgers ownership group, executed a strategy of building a winner as rapidly as possibly by taking on salary from other teams after buying the club for $2.15 billion in early 2012.

After four-plus productive years in Chavez Ravine, González battled injuries in 2017, appearing in only 71 games (his first season with fewer than 156 since 2005) as he dealt with elbow and back issues that saw him land on the disabled list for the first time in his career. With a young Cody Bellinger entrenched as the Dodgers first baseman and only a year remaining on his contract, González agreed to waive his no-trade clause to facilitate one of the more creative big-money swaps in recent memory, heading to Atlanta along with Charlie Culberson, Brandon McCarthy, and Scott Kazmir in exchange for Matt Kemp. The deal enabled the Braves, nearing the end of a rebuild, to shift their payroll burden forward to 2018, while allowing the Dodgers to slip below the luxury tax threshold.

Per a pre-trade agreement, the Braves immediately designated González for assignment and released him two days later to allow him to explore other opportunities. He eventually latched on with a Mets team that rocketed to an 11-1 start but faded quickly in May and June. In what would turn out to be his final major league season, González compiled a .237/.299/.373 batting line in 187 PA across 54 games before being released by New York.

González finishes his MLB career with some very solid counting stats, (317 home runs, 2,050 hits, and 1,202 RBIs) to go along with a robust .287/.358/.485 career batting line.  He also won two Silver Sluggers and four Gold Gloves and was selected to appear in five All-Star games.  With a few truly dominant seasons amidst a thoroughly consistent level of production, González seems like a cinch to at least appear on the Hall of Fame ballot, itself a major honor that reflects a standout career.

MLB Trade Rumors congratulates González on all of his success on the field, and we wish him the best in his post-playing endeavors.

Padres Notes: Suzuki, Closer Situation, Abrams

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In a Monday mailbag, Dennis Lin of The Athletic poured cold water on pre-lockout reports that the Padres had targeted Nick Castellanos to fill an outfield/DH vacancy, but he did suggest the club might enter the sweepstakes for Japanese slugger Seiya Suzuki when free agency resumes. While fitting Suzuki into their payroll might require finding a taker for at least a portion of the salary due to Eric Hosmer or Wil Myers on the trade market, principal owner Peter Seidler has indicated the club’s budget has at least a bit of room for growth, though this could depend on luxury tax provisions in the new CBA (the Padres slightly exceeded the threshold last season, and the previous deal included escalating penalties for repeat offenders). The longtime Hiroshima Toyo Carp outfielder, who might offer the highest bang-for-the-buck potential among remaining free agent outfielders, won’t command nearly the salary sought by Castellanos or Kris Bryant (MLBTR projects Suzuki will sign for five years and $55MM). Including projections for arbitration-eligible players, the Padres are presently on the hook for just shy of $199MM in 2022 salary (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource).

Though the Giants and Mariners appear to be the industry favorites to sign Suzuki, Padres fans have learned never to put anything past GM and president of baseball operations A. J. Preller, particularly given Seidler’s repeated willingness to green-light moves that commit the club to significant years and dollars. As Lin notes, the Padres had only three above-average lineup regulars (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jake Cronenworth) in 2021. Suzuki’s bat is hardly a sure thing — Friars fans will note the significant adjustment difficulties of KBO import Ha-Seong Kim in 2021, though the versatile infielder did provide significant value with his glove — but his career .315/.414/.541 line at Japan’s highest level (.317/.433/.539 in 2021) offers plenty to dream on.

A few other Padres notes as we wait out the (rather bleak) CBA negotiations:

  • In the same mailbag, Lin discussed the Padres’ closer situation, which remains unsettled following the departure of 2021 NL saves leader Mark Melancon to the Diamondbacks. Drew Pomeranz is the obvious choice for a ninth-inning role, but he’s coming off surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon that ended his 2021 season in August. Lin notes that both Emilio Pagan and the recently signed Robert Suarez have experience in the role, but Pagan had a less-than-stellar 2021 (4.83 ERA, 5.22 FIP) and all of Suarez’s 68 career saves came in Japan, where he’s played since 2016. Should the Padres no longer view him as a starter, Dinelson Lamet could also be an option, though new manager Bob Melvin may prefer to use him in a multi-inning role. In any event, Lin expects the Padres to address lineup questions before turning to the bullpen. They could turn to one or several of low-cost options with histories of big-league success, a list that includes Brad Hand, Chris Martin, Archie Bradley, Adam Ottavino, Sergio Romo, Yusmeiro Petit, Mychal Givens, Sean Doolittle, Pedro Strop, Richard Rodriguez, and Tyler Clippard.
  • Consensus top-10 prospect CJ Abrams, who missed the second half of the 2021 season after suffering a broken tibia and torn MCL in late-June infield collision and had recently dealt with shoulder issues, has been cleared to resume baseball activities, reports Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Prior to the injury, the 21-year-old shortstop compiled a .296/.363/.420 batting line in a 42-game sample at Double-A San Antonio. As he’s not yet on the Padres’ 40-man roster, Abrams is not affected by the lockout and could play in mini-camp games in short order. Though he’s certain to begin 2022 in the minors, Abrams is a potential candidate for a late-season call-up should his bat continue to show life in the upper minors, particularly if Fernando Tatis Jr.’s shoulder issues persist or manager Bob Melvin revisits plans to deploy Tatis in the outfield.

Latest On Nick Castellanos

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The crop of unsigned corner outfielders remains strong, with Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Conforto still yet to put pen to paper. There’s a case that Castellanos is the best pure outfielder still available, although interest from what appeared to be one of his primary suitors may be more muted than expected.

Reports from before the institution of the lockout suggested the Padres were among the teams with “strong interest” in Castellanos. However, as part of a reader mailbag this week, Dennis Lin of the Athletic writes the club doesn’t seem to be “terribly high” on the 29-year-old. While San Diego was at least in contact with Castellanos’ representatives at the Boras Corporation before the lockout, Lin downplays the possibility of San Diego committing either a five-year or a nine-figure investment to Castellanos coming out of the transactions freeze.

Unsurprisingly, he and his reps came out aiming higher, reportedly seeking seven or eight guaranteed years. Something of that length (especially eight years) would register as a surprise but a strong five or six year pact would align with broader expectations; we at MLBTR predicted a five-year term at a total of $115MM on our Top 50 Free Agent rankings to begin the offseason.

No doubt part of San Diego’s reluctance to spend at that level is their already-cluttered payroll. Manny Machado ($32MM), Will Myers ($22.5MM), Eric Hosmer ($20.625MM) and Yu Darvish ($20MM) are all slated for hefty salaries in 2022, parts of a projected $199MM player payroll (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource) that’d top last season’s franchise-record mark by by around $25MM. Lin writes that some within the organization have suggested there may not be a ton of room to take on additional salary this offseason.

San Diego has tried to save some payroll room by moving Hosmer and/or Myers in trade. Shedding much or all of Hosmer’s money ($61.5MM through 2025) would likely require attaching significant young talent, further thinning a farm system that has depleted as the Padres have pushed their chips in to compete over the past few seasons. It’d probably be easier to find a taker for Myers, who’s entering the final year of his deal. Yet that would also require paying down some money or surrendering young talent, and it’d further deplete an already lacking corner outfield group.

Also complicating matters, the Padres narrowly exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. The previous collective bargaining agreement contained escalating penalties for teams that surpassed the tax in multiple consecutive seasons. Where the thresholds are set and whether escalating penalties for repeat payors will persist in the next CBA is to be determined but could affect the Padres willingness to push their payroll higher after the transactions freeze.

San Diego exceeding the tax is also relevant to their chances of pursuing a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer from his previous team, as Castellanos did from the Reds. As a tax payor, the Friars would relinquish their second-highest and fifth-highest selections in the 2022 amateur draft as well as $1MM in international signing bonus pool space were they to sign a qualified free agent.

So, if not the Padres, where might Castellanos and Boras turn? The Marlins have been reported to harbor interest in Castellanos, a Miami-area native, since before the offseason even began. The Fish already committed four years and $55MM to Avisail Garcia, but they’re still in the hunt for another bat. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote recently that Castellanos “would welcome” a homecoming deal with the Marlins … but only “if the terms were right.” Fish fans hoping for a hometown discount should probably temper their optimism.

Still, there’s reason to believe that if the Marlins are truly intent on bolstering their lineup, they could at least make the financials on a Castellanos signing work. Miami currently projects to have a payroll just shy of $69MM, and there’s only $27MM in guaranteed contracts on the books for the 2023 season. In terms of a positional fit, they’re already rife with corner outfield options, but GM Kim Ng has told reporters this winter that the team is comfortable utilizing Garcia in center field. It’s also possible, if not likely, that a designated hitter will be added to the National League, which would only give the Marlins — or any other NL club — more at-bats to give to Castellanos.

This Date In Transactions History: January 30

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Let’s take a look back at some notable moves taking place on this day in years past…

  • 2021: The Blue Jays officially announced their one-year, $18MM deal with Marcus Semien, as the two sides agreed to the contract a few days prior.  In the aftermath of a disappointing 2020 season with the A’s, Semien opted for the one-year pact with Toronto in order to rebuild his free agent value with a better performance in 2021.  This plan worked to perfection, as Semien finished third in AL MVP voting after hitting .265/.334/.538 with 45 home runs (a new single-season record for a second baseman).  Semien then cashed in during his most recent trip to the open market, signing a seven-year, $175MM contract with the Rangers signed prior to the lockout.
  • 2021: In another notable move completed one year ago, the Athletics acquired Cole Irvin from the Phillies in exchange for cash considerations.  Irvin hadn’t done much over 45 1/3 career innings with Philadelphia, but the southpaw emerged as a valuable member of Oakland’s rotation last year, posting a 4.24 ERA over 178 1/3 innings.  While the Statcast metrics weren’t kind to Irvin and questions remain as to whether or not he can stick as a reliable starting pitcher, and yet for the cost of just a minor cash outlay, the trade was already a win for the A’s.  It is possible Irvin wouldn’t have broken out without a change of scenery, and yet the deal doesn’t look great in hindsight for the Phillies, especially considering the Phils spent much of the season looking for consistency at the back of their rotation.
  • 2016: Jean Segura was traded for the second of four times in his career, as the Diamondbacks acquired Segura and right-hander Tyler Wagner from the Brewers for a package of Chase Anderson, Isan Diaz, Aaron Hill, and $5.5MM to cover part of Hill’s remaining salary.  Segura’s lone season in Arizona was the best of his career (.319/.368/.499 with 20 homers as part of a 5.0 fWAR campaign), but it wasn’t enough to keep the D’Backs from a 93-loss season.  With Mike Hazen taking over as Arizona’s GM in the aftermath of that rough season, Segura found himself on the move again in November 2016, traded to the Mariners in another notable swap that brought Ketel Marte to the desert.  From Milwaukee’s perspective, their Segura trade ended up being a nice win.  Anderson became a solid member of the rotation for four seasons, while Diaz was part of the prospect package the Brewers sent to the Marlins to land Christian Yelich.
  • 2006: Hey, remember when Mike Piazza played for the Padres?  The Hall-of-Famer spent only one season in a Friars uniform, but it was a memorable one, sparked when Piazza signed a one-year, $2MM deal (with an $8MM mutual option for 2007).  Getting the bulk of playing time as San Diego’s starting catcher, Piazza still plenty left in the tank at age 37, hitting .283/.342/.501 with 22 home runs over 439 PA.  Piazza’s big year helped the Padres win the NL West, but the team declined their end of the mutual option after the season.
  • 1954: Bobby Thomson’s legendary home run helped THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT in 1951, but it can be argued that trading Thomson helped the Giants win the World Series in 1954.  On this day 68 years ago, the then-New York Giants picked up left-handers Johnny Antonelli and Don Liddle, backup catcher Ebba St. Claire, infielder Billy Klaus and $50K in cash from the then-Milwaukee Braves in exchange for Thomson and catcher Sam Calderone.  Antonelli became a fixture of the Giants rotation for the next seven seasons, reaching six All-Star games and posting a league-best 2.30 ERA in 1954.  Liddle was also a solid arm for New York in 1954, and might be best remembered for allowing the long Vic Wertz fly ball that required Willie Mays to make “The Catch” in Game 1 of the 1954 World Series.  Brought into the game specifically to face Wertz, Liddle was removed after facing his one batter — according to legend, Liddle then wisecracked “well, I got my man” in mock-bragging fashion after leaving the game.
  • 1923: It’s not quite the most famous example of the Red Sox trading a future Hall-of-Famer to the Yankees, since it’s not like Boston fans bemoaned “The Curse Of Herb Pennock.”  Still, the Yankees never won a World Series before Pennock came to the Bronx, dealt from Boston for $50K and three players who were all gone from the Sox roster by 1925.  Pennock was already a 10-year veteran with a solid career behind him at the time of the trade, but after a couple of relative down years in 1921 and 1922, the Sox were ready to move on.  Pennock went on to pitch 11 seasons with the Yankees, posting a 3.54 ERA over 2203 1/3 innings and helping New York win four Series championships.  The southpaw was at his best in October, with a 1.95 ERA over 55 1/3 career innings in World Series play.

Recalibrating Expectations For Luis Urias

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Luis Urias was a top prospect coming up in the Padres’ system at a time when San Diego had one of the best farm systems in baseball. The Padres avoided overtures to deal Urias for more established talent year after year. After intermittent opportunities in 2018 and 2019, Urias was shipped to Milwaukee in one of the more interesting challenge trades in recent memory: the Padres sent Urias and southpaw Eric Lauer to the Brewers for outfielder Trent Grisham and righty Zach Davies.

At the time – late November of 2019 – Grisham was at a low point, fresh off ending the Brewers season with an unfortunate bounce on a Juan Soto single that knocked Milwaukee out of the wild card game. Grisham had played admirably in a 51-game stint mostly standing in for the injured Christian Yelich – not at all an easy task, given his legendary status at the time. But the way the season ended definitely left a poor impression about Grisham’s future. Of course, Grisham would go on to win a Gold Glove Award as a centerfielder the next season, reminding us that a single moment in time cannot define a player’s career. The now-25-year-old has grown his well-rounded game enough to place him among the most promising centerfielders in the sport.

A similar lesson might be taken from the first few seasons of Urias’ career. His first season with the Brewers looked a lot like his first few years in San Diego. Following the 2020 season, Urias’ career triple-slash line was a punchless .226/.315/.320, a performance 24 percent below-average. The lack of pop wasn’t shocking, as power was never his calling card. His offensive potential was built on a keen eye at the plate and bat-to-ball skills that routinely produced batting averages of .290+ while in the minor leagues.

Urias, who’s still just 24, turned it around in the 2021 campaign, posting a 111 wRC+ while slashing .249/.345/.445 with 23 home runs. Oddly, it was his power that drove the improvement as his isolated power jumped to .196, an above-average mark that helped sustain a move to the more power-expectant position of third base. If last season’s output represents a new baseline for Urias, our typical understanding of the aging curve suggests that Urias ought to have at least another 5-6 seasons of being a very good baseball player.

If the high-average, high-on-base-percentage player that Urias had been throughout his minors career re-animates for the Brewers in 2022, the Brewers might really have a star player on their hands. They might need one, too, because, somewhat ironically, where once Grisham stood in for an injured Yelich, an improved Urias helped pick up the slack for a lessened Yelich in 2021. With Yelich no longer performing at the superhuman levels of his MVP seasons, and Lorenzo Cain beginning to show his age, the Brewers had to rely on a more egalitarian approach at the plate in 2021. Urias was a big reason why the Brewers were able to weather Yelich’s decline from a 170 wRC+ superhero in 2018-19 to an all-too-mortal 105 wRC+ in 2020-21. Willy Adames carried much of the load after his arrival from Tampa, but even his transformation into a middle-of-the-order bat (135 wRC+) didn’t come close to matching the firepower of Yelich in his heyday.

Manager Craig Counsell mixes-and-matches to maximize the production of an imperfect offensive roster, and he’s done so dating back to Yelich’s MVP years. The Brewers scored 754 runs in 2018 when Yelich won the MVP, 12th-most in the Majors, then 769 runs in 2019 when Yelich finished second, 15th-most in MLB. They scored just 247 runs in the truncated 2020 season when Yelich’s production first dipped, a mark that fell to 26th overall and resulted in a 29-31 season that barely qualified them for an expanded playoffs. Last season, they made the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season while scoring 738 runs, which landed them back at 12th overall in the Majors. In other words, the Brewers offense was about as good as it’s ever been with Yelich on the roster, despite Yelich himself producing barely better than average.

The Brewers under Counsell and GM David Stearns have always been a pitching-first organization, and that’s likely to continue in 2022 behind a rotation that’s among the most well-rounded in all of baseball. Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta boast mind-bending pure stuff, but they’re buttressed by a pair of steady-eddies in Adrian Houser and Lauer, Urias’ traveling mate from San Diego. When healthy, Josh Hader, Devin Williams, and Brent Suter make up the core of a formidable bullpen, not to mention Aaron Ashby, the hard-throwing, bespectacled southpaw who appears to be the next big arm to establish himself on Counsell’s staff.

Pitching dominance, however, now more than ever, is prone to whims of injury and year-to-year variance. Less length from starters means spreading the innings load to more pitchers than in days’ past, and that means spreading the potential for variance around as well. There are plusses and minuses to meting out that responsibility to so many arms. The Brewers pitching staff has ranked among the game’s best by fWAR the past two seasons, but nothing is guaranteed on the hill. The offense will need to carry their own water.

There are paths to Milwaukee scoring enough runs to cover even an unforeseen letdown from the pitching staff, but as of right now, they’re gambles. Obviously, a bounceback season from Yelich would do wonders. A rejuvenated Cain in his age-36 season would be amazing, however unlikely. Even another season from Adames at his Milwaukee potency would register as a pleasant surprise.

The list goes on. They need Keston Hiura to find the form that made him a top prospect bat. They need Hunter Renfroe and Tyrone Taylor to make up the production left behind by the departed Avisail Garcia. They need Rowdy Tellez to maintain his role as a power force, though year-to-year consistency has eluded the southpaw slugger in the past.

Urias, now stationed at the hot corner, might be the safest best of them all. Heading into last season, the sheen had worn off of Urias, and the prospect of his realizing the potential that was once heaped upon his 5’9″ frame was as unlikely as any of Milwaukee’s annual offensive gambits, and yet here we are. The Brewers not only need Urias to be a star, but it’s not wholly unfair to expect it.

Padres Top Prospect Healthy Enough For Baseball Activities

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Padres top prospect CJ Abrams is healthy enough to return to full baseball activities, per Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter). Abrams had been dealing with a shoulder issue, but it does not appear as if the injury will be the cause of a delayed season start for Abrams. The Padres’ top-ranked prospect fractured his tibia and tore his mcl in a collision at second base that ended his 2021 season after just 42 games in Double-A. Despite the injury, Abrams remains one of MiLB’s most intriguing young talents, landing as the ninth-ranked prospect in the game per Baseball America, 11th-ranked overall by Baseball Prospectus, and currently sixth-ranked by MLB.com.

Before the injury, Abrams was impressive as a 20-year-old playing above his station in a league where players were roughly four years his elder on average. Regardless, he slashed .296/.363/.420 over 183 plate appearances prior to the injury, good for a 112 wRC+. At the dish, Abrams put forth a fairly well-rounded game with an 8.2 percent walk rate, 19.7 percent strikeout rate, and .123 ISO while also stealing 13 bases in 15 opportunities. Power isn’t his primary skillset, but Abrams showed enough pop at his age to suggest there’s more growth to come in that department.

The question for Abrams right now, beyond his return to health, is where the Padres hope to station him in the field. He has remained a shortstop, but a certain Fernando Tatis Jr. has aims on holding that spot long-term. Of course, the Padres experimented moving Tatis around the diamond in 2021, driven at least publicly by a desire to keep him from re-injuring his shoulder. Abrams played a little second base in Double-A, and maybe that’s where he ultimately ends up in order to secure a spot on the Major League roster. The first hurdle will be proving himself healthy, and if the season eventually gets underway, he’ll either be back in Double-A for a time or jumped ahead to Triple-A. Either way, the Padres will hope to see Abrams somewhere on the diamond in Petco Park before the end of the 2023 season, if not sooner.

Padres Discussed Chris Paddack As Part Of Trade Deadline Talks With Nationals

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Before the Dodgers acquired Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals at the trade deadline, the Padres were known to also be in the hunt for both players, with San Diego reportedly coming particularly close to landing Scherzer before the Nats pivoted towards the Dodgers’ offer.  Top catching prospect Luis Campusano was discussed as part of the Padres’ negotiations with Washington, and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that the Padres also “dangled” Chris Paddack as part of the Scherzer talks.

Paddack (who just turned 26 earlier this month) tossed 108 1/3 innings last season, as he was limited by three separate trips to the injured list due to COVID-19, an oblique strain, and then a slight UCL sprain that ended his season in mid-September.  The timing of that oblique strain could’ve played a role in Paddack’s deadline fate, as he pitched on July 27 but was then placed on the IL on July 31, the day after the deadline — the Padres might have taken Paddack off the table in trade talks knowing that he was about to be sidelined with an injury.

After posting a solid 3.74 ERA over 174 innings in 2019-20, Paddack took a step backwards in 2021, and it’s fair to guess that his injuries likely played some role in his lesser numbers.  Plus, Paddack’s 5.07 ERA was surely impacted by a very low 60.7% strand rate, and his 4.05 SIERA paints a more favorable impression of last season’s performance.

That said, Paddack’s Statcast metrics were decidedly subpar aside from his excellent walk rate, and his hard-contact and strikeout rates were also both troublesome in 2020.  Between these numbers and his injuries, it still isn’t quite clear after parts of three MLB seasons if Paddack can be a solid contributor to a rotation, or if he might ultimately be a fringe fifth starter or depth arm.

For this reason, San Diego could opt to keep Paddack until they know exactly what they have in a hard-throwing, controllable (through 2024) starting pitcher.  While Paddack might have been available as part of a Scherzer trade package, that doesn’t necessarily mean the right-hander would be available for just anything now, plus other teams would surely gauge Paddack a little differently given his post-deadline injury woes.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed earlier this week, the Padres technically have a rather a large surplus of rotation candidates if everyone is healthy, so Paddack or another arm could possibly be available in trade talks as San Diego looks to make other roster upgrades after the lockout.  On the other hand, “if everyone is healthy” is a big if for a Padres team that had so many pitchers sidelined with injuries last season.

Both Lin and Adams noted that the Padres might simply want to hang onto all their rotation depth until they know who or who isn’t healthy.  Paddack has also shown a degree of success at the MLB level already, so the Friars could prefer to keep such a big league-ready arm around as a rotation candidate, and instead look to move a pitcher who has little or no Major League experience.

Turning back to the deadline talks, it’s hard to compare offers since we don’t know the full scope of what exactly the Padres offered the Nationals for Scherzer and/or Turner.  The combo of Paddack and Campusano was certainly enough to get the ball rolling on talks, but obviously more was required to actually get Washington to part ways with either of its stars.  The Nats ended up accepting a four-player package (Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray and prospects Gerardo Carrillo and Donovan Casey) from L.A. for both Scherzer and Turner, headlined by big league-ready youngsters in Ruiz and Gray.

Latest On Seiya Suzuki’s Market

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TODAY: In another view of Suzuki’s market, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that “within the industry the Giants and Mariners are seen as the leading contenders” to land the outfielder.

Jan. 27: The consensus among general managers to whom Peter Gammons of The Athletic has spoken is that the Giants are perhaps the favorites to sign Suzuki (Twitter link). Again, it seems difficult to proclaim any concrete favorite when Suzuki has not yet traveled to the U.S. and is still planning multiple in-person meetings, but that bit of informed speculation is nevertheless of some note.

Elsewhere, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that the Marlins, known to be in the market for another power bat in the outfield, “appreciate” Suzuki’s skill set and have some level of interest, though he characterizes the Fish as something of a long shot to actually push a deal across the finish line.

Jan. 26: Star Nippon Professional Baseball outfielder Seiya Suzuki is set to travel to the United States in preparation for face-to-face negotiations with Major League teams once the lockout is lifted, per a report from Japan’s Nikkan Sports. Suzuki and agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman have already conducted virtual meetings with at least eight clubs, and they’ll continue prepping for advanced negotiations once the transaction freeze has thawed.

Nikkan’s report suggests that the Padres, Cubs, Mariners and Giants are “expected” to be among the finalists for Suzuki once negotiations resume. That’s not an exhaustive list, but it’s worth noting that all four host their Spring Training in Arizona, particularly given this report’s implication that teams with Spring Training camps in Florida may be at a disadvantage when it comes to negotiating with Suzuki. If that’s indeed the case, it’d be a welcome preference for the four “expected” finalists and the Rangers — who’ve also been tied to Suzuki thus far. The Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays — each of whom hosts Spring Training in Florida — have all been linked to Suzuki as well, however, and Yahoo Japan suggests the Red Sox could be an early favorite (although it seems dubious to crown any kind of front-runner after just nine days of talks and before Suzuki has had a single in-person meeting).

A 27-year-old right fielder who won his fifth NPB Gold Glove in 2021, Suzuki is regarded as the best player to jump from NPB to Major League Baseball since Shohei Ohtani. That’s not a comparison between the two, of course — far from it. Scouting reports on Suzuki peg him as a potential everyday right fielder who can hit for power and play average or better defense, however, which should generate plenty of interest around the league.

MLBTR spoke to multiple Major League evaluators prior to the point at which Suzuki was formally posted by the Hiroshima Carp, receiving generally favorable reviews and hearing at least once that Suzuki is currently the best player in Japan. Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times received a similar opinion back in August, and Sports Info Solution’s Ted Baarda took a lengthier look at Suzuki in early November.

Statistically, Suzuki checks every box. He posted a mammoth .317/.433/.636 batting line with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals in 533 plate appearances this past season in Japan, and that’s roughly in line with the type of production he’s delivered dating back to 2018. Over the past four seasons, Suzuki owns a .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances. He’s also walked nearly as often as he’s punched out, drawing a free pass in 16.1% of his plate appearances against just a 16.4% strikeout rate since 2018.

Of course, it remains to be seen just how Suzuki will fare against more advanced pitching. Major League Baseball features, in particular, considerably higher velocity than NPB hitters face on the regular. That’s often led to some struggles from NPB hitters making the jump to North American ball — including recent examples like Yoshi Tsutsugo and Shogo Akiyama — but it should be stressed that Suzuki is younger than either was upon coming to MLB and has a much better offensive skill set.

Whenever the transaction freeze lifts, Suzuki will have 21 days remaining in his 30-day posting window. He and Wolfe are free to use the entirety of that three-week window to find a new club, although given the possibility (if not the likelihood) that the start of Spring Training will be delayed, it could behoove them to act sooner than later in order to begin the process of making the already difficult transition to Major League Baseball.

As a reminder, any team that signs Suzuki will also owe a release fee to the Carp. The current iteration of the NPB/MLB posting system stipulates that an MLB team must pay a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any money spent thereafter. That’s on top of the actual value of the contract. So, for instance, a $55MM contract for Suzuki would come with a $10.125MM release fee — a total investment of $65.125MM.

Salary that can be unlocked via club/player options, performance incentives, etc. is not immediately factored in but does fall under the purview of the release fee once Suzuki reaches those thresholds. For example, in that same $55MM hypothetical, if Suzuki’s new team were to exercise a $10MM club option for an additional season, they’d owe the Carp an additional $1.5MM in release fees. Were Suzuki to unlock a $1MM bonus based on total plate appearances, another $150K of release fees would go to the Carp.

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