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Giants’ Keaton Winn To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery

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TODAY: Winn’s surgery has a two-month recovery timeline, he told NBC Sports Bay Area’s Andrew Baggarly (X link) and other reporters today.  Winn didn’t mention the possibility of a return during the postseason if the Giants can get into October, as he instead said he’d be able to have a normal offseason in preparation for the start of Spring Training.

JULY 26: The Giants informed reporters that rookie right-hander Keaton Winn is undergoing ulnar nerve transposition surgery next week (X link via Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle). He’ll miss the rest of the season.

Winn is already on the 60-day injured list. He landed on the IL with elbow inflammation a month ago. Winn attempted to restart a throwing program but felt continued soreness, necessitating a shutdown and eventual surgery. There’s no indication that he will not be ready for the start of Spring Training.

The 26-year-old Winn opened the year in San Francisco’s rotation. That was in part due to injuries above him on the depth chart, but Winn fared well for a month. He carried a 3.18 ERA through the end of April behind a huge 60.2% ground-ball rate. The wheels came off thereafter, as Winn’s grounders plummeted and opponents began teeing off. He allowed five or more runs in five of his final six starts.

Winn surpassed the one-year service mark this season. He’s under team control for five more years and won’t be eligible for arbitration for another two seasons. Considering he was one of the better prospects in the organization entering the year, he shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot. The Giants will need to put him back on their 40-man roster within five days of the conclusion of the World Series.

Yankees, Padres Interested In Blake Snell

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The Yankees and Padres are two of the teams expressing interest in left-hander Blake Snell, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes (links to X).  Reports surfaced earlier this week that Snell was drawing interest from pitching-needy contenders, and New York and San Diego are the first clubs specifically known to gotten in touch with the Giants over Snell’s availability.

It remains to be seen if the Giants will actually move Snell, or be deadline sellers in any real capacity given that the team is still just 4.5 games out of a wild card berth.  Snell is himself a major factor in San Francisco’s renewed hopes of contention, as the southpaw has been almost untouchable since returning from the injured list.  Over his last four starts, Snell has a 0.75 ERA and a 35.7% strikeout rate, highlighted by a 15-strikeout gem of an outing against the Rockies yesterday.

This is the type of rotation-carrying production was what the Giants were hoping to receive when they signed the reigning Cy Young Award winner to a two-year, $62MM deal back in March.  However, Snell’s lengthy stint in free agency and subsequent lack of proper Spring Training work wreaked havoc on his performance, resulting in two IL stints (with an adductor strain and a groin strain) and a 9.51 ERA over his first six starts in a Giants uniform.

This recent injury history will obviously weigh on the minds of any team that does approach the Giants about a Snell trade, not to mention the fact that Snell can opt out of the second year (and $30MM salary) of his contract.  The presence of this opt-out clause means that Snell isn’t exactly a rental player, thus creating extra financial risk for an acquiring team, and some difficulty in working out an acceptable trade package with San Francisco.  Snell’s recent form increases the chances that he might exercise his player option, but if any more injury issues arise, Snell could pass on his opt-out and remain on the books for that hefty $30MM payday next year.

Snell is naturally a known quantity to the Padres after pitching with San Diego from 2021-23, but the financial aspect of a Snell trade is particularly noteworthy for a Padres team that is trying to remain under the luxury tax threshold this season, in order to reset its penalty status after two years of overages.  San Diego’s acquisition of Jason Adam from the Rays earlier today resulted in a pretty minor financial hit, though the Padres had to give up a hefty prospect package to obtain the reliever.  Payroll aside, there is also the broader fact that it seems rather unlikely that the Giants would trade Snell to a division rival.

The Bronx Bombers have long had Snell on their radar, and the six-year, $150MM offer Snell reportedly received from the Yankees in January is the highest contract known to be on the table for the left-hander during his elongated free agent market.  As Heyman notes, the luxury tax is also a factor given that New York has already topped the upper tier ($297MM) of tax penalties.  RosterResource estimates that the Yankees’ Competitive Balance Tax number is just shy of $312.9MM, and thus they would face a 110% tax on any further salaries added to their ledger.

Giants Designate Mike Baumann For Assignment

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The Giants announced they’ve designated reliever Mike Baumann for assignment. The move opens an active roster spot for Spencer Bivens, who has been recalled from Triple-A. San Francisco also appointed Hayden Birdsong as the 27th man for today’s doubleheader with the Rockies.

San Francisco just acquired Baumann in a cash deal with Seattle last week. He made one appearance in black and orange, allowing two runs while recording two outs in yesterday’s blowout win over Colorado. He’s out of options, so the Giants had to take him off the 40-man roster if they wanted to remove him from the active roster.

This is the third time this season that Baumann has been designated for assignment. The former Orioles’ third-round draftee has bounced from Baltimore to Seattle to San Francisco. He has struggled in all three stops and owns a 4.84 ERA over 35 1/3 innings. Baumann was a solid piece of Baltimore’s middle relief corps a year ago. The Jacksonville product worked to a 3.76 ERA with an average 22.3% strikeout percentage while logging 64 2/3 innings. This season hasn’t gone to plan, but he hasn’t lost any velocity off a fastball that sits north of 96 MPH.

The Giants can trade Baumann before next Tuesday’s deadline or place him on waivers within the next five days. He hasn’t made it through DFA limbo unclaimed to this point.

Mets, Giants Have Discussed Michael Conforto

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The Mets have been in contact with the Giants regarding Michael Conforto, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post (X link). The Post’s Jon Heyman wrote last night that the Mets were looking into the outfield market and preferred to add a left-handed hitter.

There aren’t many obvious options on that front. The Marlins are likely to deal center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr., but a trade with the Mets could be complicated by the division factor. The Nationals probably wouldn’t have any qualms about dealing impending free agent Jesse Winker within the NL East. Beyond that duo, the Giants might have the top pair of trade candidates among lefty-hitting outfielders in Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski.

Of course, the Mets are plenty familiar with Conforto. A former 10th overall pick, he hit .255/.356/.468 through parts of seven seasons with the team. Conforto represented the Mets in the 2017 All-Star Game and was one of the better hitters in the league between 2017-20. His production dipped in his ’21 platform season. The Mets allowed him to walk in free agency after he declined a qualifying offer. Conforto injured his shoulder while working out that offseason. He underwent surgery and missed the entire 2022 campaign. He landed in San Francisco on a two-year, $36MM free agent pact the next winter.

Conforto hasn’t recaptured his peak offensive form coming back from the injury. He has been an unexceptional hitter over his season and a half in the Bay Area. He turned in a .239/.334/.384 slash through 470 plate appearances a year ago. It’s a similar story in 2024. Conforto carries a .226/.298/.415 batting line through 80 contests. His 9% walk rate is his lowest in any full season of his career. He’s striking out at a customary 24.1% clip.

The 31-year-old has had a slight rebound in his hard contact rate and power production. He’s slugging above .400 for the first time in four years and has 10 homers across 299 plate appearances — the equivalent of a half-season of action. That uptick in power has come with a career-low OBP, however. Conforto’s overall offense is again almost exactly league average, as measured by wRC+. That’s on par with what he produced in his final season in Queens and his first year in San Francisco.

Conforto is playing this year on an $18MM salary, nearly $6.3MM of which is still to be paid out. It’s not likely that other teams would take the full freight. Not only has Conforto’s overall production been middling, he has been in a funk of late. He carried a .280/.331/.490 slash into June but owns a .165/.261/.331 line over his most recent 145 plate appearances.

The Giants may need to kick in money and accept a minimal prospect return if they’re going to move him in the next few days. The Mets are paying a 110% fee on any salary they take. Absorbing all of Conforto’s remaining money would cost them upwards of $13MM including luxury taxes. That’s probably not appealing even to an organization that has leveraged its financial might to take on a couple struggling relievers, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek, this month.

San Francisco has dropped six of its last 10 and fallen six games below .500. They’re 5.5 games back of the Padres for the last Wild Card spot with five additional teams to pass in the standings. Their mediocre play coming out of the All-Star Break seems to have them positioned as sellers.

Blake Snell Among Giants Drawing Trade Interest

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8:46pm: Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that five teams have shown some amount of interest in Snell.

10:22 am: The Giants have hovered around the National League Wild Card race for most of the year but slipped back recently, which could lead to them deciding to sell prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic took a look at some possible trade candidates, reporting that left-hander Blake Snell is drawing significant trade interest. Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic listed Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski and Wilmer Flores as bats that are available around the league. Baggarly also mentions right-hander Alex Cobb and lefty Taylor Rogers as candidates to be moved in the coming days.

San Francisco is currently 49-55, which only puts them 5.5 games back of the nearest playoff spot, but they would have to pull away from the Cubs and then pass the Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Padres in order to get into postseason position. They’re not totally buried but the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just an 11.5% shot of getting in while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even less optimistic at 5.6%. With that kind of Hail Mary window, it’s logical that the Giants would look into shifting their priorities to optimizing next year’s team, which would mean making some players available now.

It’s unsurprising that Snell would draw significant trade interest, though his trade candidacy would have complications. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball when at his best, which is why he has two Cy Young awards on his mantel. That includes getting last year’s National League trophy when he posted a 2.25 earned run average over 32 starts with the Padres.

But 2024 has been far less smooth. Despite his excellent 2023 campaign, he lingered in free agency for a long time and didn’t sign with the Giants until the middle of March. After a quick ramp-up, he made three rough starts before landing on the injured list with a left adductor strain. He returned from the IL and had three more bad outings before returning to the IL in early June with a left groin strain. At that time, he had an ERA of 9.51 in those six starts.

He has since returned and been in much better form. He shut out the Blue Jays and then the Twins before allowing two earned runs against the Dodgers. Those three better starts have reduced his ERA to 5.83 for the year.

Despite the inconsistent results this year, some clubs would surely be willing to bank on his track record and recent return to form. However, his contract adds another layer of complication. He signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants that allows him to opt-out at season’s end.

Trading players with such provisions is usually a tricky proposition, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers and it’s a situation that Giant fans are likely familiar with from the Carlos Rodón saga from a few years ago. Despite having a dominant season for a middling Giants club, Rodón wasn’t moved at the deadline as he had an upcoming opt-out that seemed to ward off potential buyers.

Players in such situations are mostly downside for the acquiring club. If the player performs well, they will leave, making them a rental in a best-case scenario. If they perform poorly or get hurt, they will stick around and keep their notable salary on the books. Surrendering notable prospects for such an arrangement is often an unattractive proposition and the selling club might not want to give up a star player for an uninspiring return.

Snell’s contract consists of a $15MM salary this year and a $17MM signing bonus that Baggarly notes is not transferable to a trade partner. There’s a $30MM player option for 2025 that Snell could trigger if he finishes the season poorly or is injured, but he could also opt-out if he finishes strong. Those complications might soften the offers but demand for pitching is expected to outstrip supply, especially in terms of front-of-the-rotation type arms, so perhaps the Giants will get some intriguing calls.

It makes sense that the Giants would listen to offers to see if they could get that contract off their books while also recouping some younger talent. Even without Snell, next year’s rotation could consist of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Robbie Ray and Jordan Hicks, with Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn perhaps back in the mix if their health allows. Prospect Carson Whisenhunt has reached Triple-A while the club also has Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp and Kai-Wei Teng on the 40-man roster.

Sticking with the rotation, Cobb is a more straightforward trade candidate in the sense that he’s an impending free agent. Even though he underwent hip surgery in October, the Giants picked up his $10MM option for this year in the hopes that he wouldn’t miss that much time. Unfortunately, his return has been slowed by some elbow and shoulder issues and still hasn’t pitched in the majors this season.

He has been rehabbing of late and tossed five shutout innings at the Triple-A level on Saturday. Baggarly notes that he could be reinstated and pitch for the Giants on Sunday, which would essentially be a pre-deadline showcase for interested clubs. The injury issues from this year will likely give clubs some hesitation but Cobb is an established veteran with a 3.85 ERA over 230 career starts. As recently as last year, he was able to toss 151 1/3 innings with a 3.87 ERA.

As for the bats, Rosenthal mentioned Flores as a trade candidate on Wednesday but the Giants put him on the IL the next day due to right knee tendonitis. Players on the IL can still be traded but he is also having a down season, hitting .206/.277/.318 for a wRC+ of 71. He’s making $6.5MM this year and then has a dual player/team option for 2025. He first has to decide on a $3.5MM player option and then, if he declines, the team would have an $8.5MM option available. Given his down season, he might be inclined to pick up his end of the deal rather than going to free agency.

Conforto is a straightforward trade candidate since he’s an impending free agent. He signed a two-year, $36MM deal going into 2023 and then declined to opt out after hitting a league-average .239/.334/.384 last year. He started out well this year but has tapered off. He was hitting .280/.331/.490 when he landed on the IL on May 12 due to a right hamstring strain. Since coming off the IL in early June, he’s hitting .165/.262/.331.

Yastrzemski can be retained via arbitration through next year, but there’s logic in considering trades now. He’ll turn 34 next month and is making $7.9MM, meaning he could be looking for an eight-figure salary in arbitration next year. He’s been a consistently solid player during his career on both sides of the ball. He has hit .241/.326/.458 for a wRC+ of 114 while racking up 35 Defensive Runs Saved and seven Outs Above Average. Per FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.6 wins above replacement in every previous season of his career and is currently at 1.3 fWAR this year.

Even without Conforto and Yastrzemski, the Giants could go into next year with an outfield mix consisting of Jung Hoo Lee, Heliot Ramos and Luis Matos with guys like Derek Hill, Tyler Fitzgerald and Wade Meckler also in the mix.

As for Rogers, he’s in the second season of a three-year, $33MM deal he signed with the Giants. He has continued to pitch well and the Giants could keep him for next year, but moving now might also make sense. He has a 2.27 ERA this year but that’s largely propped up by an unsustainable 84.1% strand rate. His 25.6% strikeout rate is his worst since 2017 and he’ll be turning 34 this winter.

Teams generally sign free agents looking for most production in the beginning of the deal, with the later years a pill they swallow as the price of doing business. If there’s a way for them to wriggle out of the last season of the Rogers pact, they might consider taking it. Such a move could potentially free up some cash, bring back some young talent or both. It would create a hole in next year’s bullpen but relievers are often viewed as volatile and fairly replaceable.

All together, the Giants make for an interesting late entry into a market that has been perceived to have a lack of sellers. As laid out by Baggarly, the club could try to duck under the competitive balance tax in the days to come but it would be difficult to do. RosterResource estimates they are currently just above $253MM, more than $16MM above the $237MM base threshold. They would effectively have to find takers for all the money owed to Snell, Rogers, Conforto, Yastrzemski and Cobb to dip under and therefore might be focused on prospect capital between now and the July 30 deadline.

Giants Agree To Terms With First-Round Pick James Tibbs

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The Giants are in agreement with first-round pick James Tibbs III on a $4.7475MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). That’s below the approximate $5.3MM slot value of the #13 pick.

Pre-draft scouting reports on Tibbs were generally aligned. He ranked between 11th and 15th at each of Baseball America, FanGraphs, Keith Law’s list at The Athletic and Kiley McDaniel’s ranking at ESPN. Tibbs is a lefty-hitting corner outfielder and first baseman from Florida State. While he doesn’t have the prototypical plus raw power associated with a corner position, he’s a well-rounded offensive player who had one of the top hit tools in the class. Law and BA each praise Tibbs’ ability to handle high-velocity offerings in particular.

The Atlanta native hit well over all three seasons at Florida State. He improved his strikeout and walk profile in each season, culminating in a .363/.488/.777 showing during his junior year. Tibbs walked 58 times against 37 strikeouts while hitting 28 home runs over 66 contests as a junior.

Giants Reinstate Robbie Ray, Option Luis Matos

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Robbie Ray is officially back from the injured list. San Francisco reinstated the southpaw from the 60-day IL to take the ball tonight against the Dodgers. The Giants also added recent waiver claim Derek Hill to their active roster. San Francisco optioned Luis Matos and Randy Rodriguez to Triple-A Sacramento in corresponding moves. To open a spot on the 40-man roster for Ray, the Giants moved Keaton Winn to the 60-day IL.

Ray makes his team debut after being acquired from the Mariners over the winter. Seattle and San Francisco lined up on an out of nowhere swap of veterans on big contracts. The Giants shipped Anthony DeSclafani and Mitch Haniger to Seattle to take a flier on Ray, who was about halfway through his rehab from last May’s Tommy John procedure. The M’s flipped DeSclafani to the Twins, with whom he suffered a Spring Training injury and underwent season-ending surgery. Haniger has underperformed for a second straight year.

The Giants hope their end of the deal yields better results. Ray is more than 14 months removed from his most recent MLB pitch. He’s one of the higher-upside pitchers in baseball when healthy. He won the American League Cy Young award when he turned in a 2.84 ERA with an MLB-best 248 strikeouts for the Blue Jays in 2021. That led the Mariners to sign him to a five-year free agent pact. Ray posted good but not elite numbers in year one, working to a 3.71 earned run average through 189 innings. He made all of one start last season before suffering the injury that sent him under the knife.

If the Giants get even the ’22 version of Ray, that’d be a major boost to their rotation. He joins last year’s Cy Young winner Blake Snell as high-risk, high-reward lefties. Logan Webb is one of the game’s best starters, while Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks round out the group. Harrison has a 3.86 ERA over 17 starts in his first full MLB season. Hicks started the season very well but has seemingly shown signs of fatigue lately in his first extended look out of the rotation.

Winn was also part of the rotation early in the season. The ground-ball specialist took the ball 12 times but struggled to a 7.16 ERA across 55 1/3 frames. He has been out for about a month with elbow inflammation. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reported earlier this week that Winn is still feeling soreness and has been shut down from throwing (X link). He’s eligible to return at the end of August, but it now seems in doubt if he’ll make it back this season.

On the position player side, Hill steps into the outfield at Matos’ expense. They’re each righty hitters with the ability to play all three positions. Matos has struggled to a .217/.238/.333 slash over 40 games. He’s also had some defensive lapses that’ll lead the Giants to send him back to Triple-A. Matos is only 22 and rates as one of the better prospects in the system. He owns a .295/.358/.536 slash over 76 career Triple-A games.

Giants Claim Derek Hill From Rangers

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The Giants are claiming outfielder Derek Hill off waivers from the Rangers, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. Texas designated the speedster for assignment over the weekend. San Francisco already had an opening on their 40-man roster, so they won’t need to make a corresponding move until Hill reports to the team.

Texas signed Hill, a former first-round pick of the Tigers, to a minor league deal over the winter. They gave him a pair of stints on the big league roster. He connected on three home runs in 16 games, though he also struck out 14 times while drawing only two walks. The 28-year-old has had an excellent season in Triple-A, hitting .350/.415/.631 with eight home runs through 176 plate appearances.

Hill can play all three outfield positions. He hasn’t hit much at the MLB level, running a .232/.280/.334 line over parts of five seasons. He’s a career .300/.360/.502 hitter over 224 Triple-A contests, making him an intriguing depth piece. Hill has exhausted his minor league options, so the Giants will need to keep him on the big league roster or designate him for assignment themselves moving forward.

Giants Acquire Mike Baumann

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The Giants have acquire right-hander Mike Baumann from the Mariners in exchange for cash considerations, per an announcement from both clubs. San Francisco’s 40-man roster now stands at 39. Baumann was designated for assignment by the Mariners earlier this week.

Baumann, 29 in September, was a third-round pick by the Orioles back in 2017 and made his big league debut for the club in 2021. He spent much of his professional career as a starter before moving to the bullpen full-time following the 2022 season and enjoyed some noteworthy success in Baltimore’s bullpen with a 3.69 ERA in 83 innings since converting to relief full time. He struck out 21.7% of batters faced during that time, but an elevated 11.7% walk rate during that time in conjunction with his lack of minor league options ultimately made him expendable in a relatively deep Orioles bullpen.

That led Baltimore to designate Baumann for assignment back in May, at which point he was promptly acquired by the Mariners alongside veteran minor league catcher Michael Perez in exchange for catching prospect Blake Hunt. Unfortunately, Baumann’s time in Seattle left something to be desired, as he struggled badly to a 5.51 ERA with a 6.04 FIP thanks in part to a massive uptick in hard contact. Baumann’s barrel rate in Seattle soared to an eye-popping 17% after sitting at just 3.6% with the Orioles this year and 8.2% from 2022 to 2023. That led Baumann to surrender a whopping four homers in just 16 1/3 innings of work, or more than two per nine innings. Those struggles left Baumann in a precarious spot in Seattle, and the club ultimately decided to part ways with the 28-year-old earlier this week when lefty Gabe Speier was ready to be activated from the IL.

Now, Baumann is headed to his third club of the season to join the San Francisco bullpen. With right-handers Sean Hjelle, Luke Jackson, and Randy Rodriguez all struggling to varying degrees in the club’s bullpen, it’s not necessarily a shock that the Giants, whose cavernous home ballpark is known for its homer-suppressing tendencies, would be interested in taking a shot on the services of a player who has gotten solid results in the past but has developed issues with the long ball. Baumann fits that description perfectly, and he’ll now look to get things back on track going forward with a Giants club that ranks bottom-five in the majors and better than only the Rockies among NL clubs with a 4.42 bullpen ERA.

Mets To Sign Logan Porter To Major League Deal

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The Mets and catcher Logan Porter are in agreement on a major league deal, according to Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 on X. The deal for the Gaeta Sports Management client is pending a physical. Porter has options and won’t necessarily be added to the active roster, but it appears he’ll get a 40-man spot. The Mets will need to open a spot there to make the move official.

Porter, 29, spent most of his career with the Royals until recently. An undrafted free agent signed by Kansas City in 2018, he got a brief look in the majors last year, getting into 13 games. He was non-tendered at season’s end and re-signed with the Royals on a minor league deal.

He was acquired by the Giants about a month ago in a cash deal, but he triggered an opt-out clause on Tuesday. The Giants could have kept him by adding him to their roster but it appears they let him go and now the Mets will be the ones to give him that roster spot.

Porter hit just .194/.324/.323 in the majors last year, though in a brief sample of 38 plate appearances. His work on the farm has been far more impressive, as he has slashed .277/.401/.466 in his 1,766 minor league plate appearances. That translates to a 131 wRC+, indicating he’s been 31% better than league average.

That includes a line of .293/.390/.500 and a 127 wRC+ this year, though in uneven fashion. He hit .319/.428/.575 with the Royals but then put up a line of .253/.329/.387 after being traded to the Giants. However, that latter line was in just 85 plate appearances and the overall work appears to have been good enough to interest his new club.

The Mets currently have a tandem of Francisco Alvarez and Luis Torrens handling their catching duties at the major league level. Alvarez was one of the top prospects in baseball not too long ago and has handled himself well in the majors thus far, having hit .231/.305/.450 in his career for a 110 wRC+ with strong defensive grades as well. Torrens joined the club six weeks ago and has been killing it in that time, with a line of .283/.333/.547 and 149 wRC+ since becoming a Met. That’s far better than his career line of .231/.292/.367 but the Mets will probably ride the hot hand for as long as they can.

But those two are the only catchers on the 40-man roster. Once Porter’s deal becomes official, they will have some optionable depth on hand if either Alvarez or Torrens suffer an injury. Porter has a full slate of options and only a handful of service days, meaning he could be a long-term piece for the Mets if he holds onto his roster spot. Porter also has some first base and third base experience, which could help him carve out a utility role at some point down the line as long as he keeps hitting.

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