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Giants Release Nick Ahmed

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The Giants have released shortstop Nick Ahmed, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The club had designated him for assignment earlier this week. He’s now a free agent and can sign with any club.

Coming into 2024, San Francisco seemed committed to moving on from the Brandon Crawford era, something the longtime Giant discussed back in March. The plan was to give more playing time to younger options like Marco Luciano and Casey Schmitt, but Ahmed was brought in as a veteran fallback plan and eventually won the job out of camp.

Ahmed has long served as a glove-first shortstop in the big leagues, but his subpar offense dropped even lower last year. The Giants were surely hoping for a bit of a bounceback this year but didn’t quite get it.

He had hit .241/.299/.401 from 2018 to 2022, with that production translating to an 83 wRC+. But that dropped to a line of .212/.257/.303 and a 51 wRC+ last year. It has climbed a bit here in 2024 but only slightly, as he hit .232/.278/.303 for a wRC+ of 68 prior to being designated for assignment.

On top of that, his elite defense has been declining as well. From 2015 to 2021, he racked up 81 Defensive Runs Saved, second only to the now-retired Andrelton Simmons at shortstop. His 102 Outs Above Average in that time frame tied Francisco Lindor for the best in baseball, though Ahmed accumulated that total in far fewer innings than Lindor.

But DRS has him closer to league average over the past three years, with a total of -1 here in 2024. OAA still likes him quite a bit, with a tally of +4 this season, but that’s still a drop from his previous levels.

Given those trends, the Giants decided to move on. Luciano and Schmitt still working on things in Triple-A but the club is rolling with Brett Wisely and Tyler Fitzgerald at shortstop for now. Ahmed has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment while retaining his salary, which the Associated Press lists as $1.5MM, a bit north of this year’s $740K league minimum. The Giants skipped over that formality by releasing Ahmed.

The Giants will now remain on the hook for that salary while any club could sign Ahmed and only have to pay him the prorated version of that league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Giants pay. His declining results will likely limit him to minor league deals but he’s still a fairly capable defender and clubs like the Dodgers, Tigers, Braves, Guardians and Red Sox have some uncertainty at shortstop.

Giants’ Zaidi Downplays Need For Major Deadline Acquisition

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At 45-47, the Giants sit ten games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. They’re two and a half games back in the race for the final NL Wild Card spot, with three teams (including division-rival San Diego and Arizona) in order to claim that spot. The Pirates sit just a half-game behind San Francisco in the standings. The Cubs are only one game behind. It’s a tightly contested bunch of fringe contenders, but president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi isn’t publicly broadcasting an urgency to make a splash to separate his club from the pack.

“When I look at our team, we have pretty solid players at every spot in the field,” Zaidi said last night (link via Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle). “We have a rotation that’s getting healthier and a bullpen that’s done a nice job. So nothing jumps out as a spot where we need an emergency plug in.”

The rotation health to which Zaidi is referring includes not only reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell, who returned from the IL and made his best start of the season last night, but also veteran hurlers Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb. Ray, acquired in an offseason swap with the Mariners, is on the mend from 2023 Tommy John surgery. Cobb, whose $10MM option was exercised following the 2023 season, has had a longer-than-expected recovery from hip surgery. Both veterans are currently on minor league rehab assignments that could see them activated later this month.

In some respects, this was always the plan. After signing free agents Snell and Jordan Hicks to pair with ace Logan Webb, the Giants patched together the rest of their first-half rotation with a series of in-house promotions and bullpen games. Injuries to Tristan Beck, Keaton Winn  and Kyle Harrison have tested their depth at times.

The season-long results aren’t great overall. Giants starters rank dead last in the majors with 428 innings pitched and sit 22nd in each of ERA (4.48), strikeout rate (20.8%) and walk rate (8.3%). The impending returns of Ray and Cobb could well  help turn the tides, but it’s also worth noting that Hicks has significantly tailed off after a hot start — perhaps no surprise given that he’s now into uncharted waters (in terms of workload) as a reliever making the conversion to starting pitching.

While the Giants can hope to soon have a rotation of Webb, Ray, Cobb, Harrison and Hicks — a strong quintet indeed if all are healthy — the question of depth persists. Winn has been out since June 21 due to elbow inflammation and has not begun a rehab assignment. Beck has been out all season after requiring surgery to address an aneurysm in his shoulder. Rookie Mason Black has been hit hard in three starts. Fellow debut hurler Hayden Birdsong has fared a bit better but hardly been dominant through three trips to the hill. Top prospect Carson Whisenhunt has started 18 games in Triple-A but has a 5.79 ERA and 11.7% walk rate.

Similarly, the bullpen has its own slate of questions. San Francisco relievers have thrown more innings (383 1/3) than any team in MLB, as one would naturally expect for a team with the game’s fewest rotation innings. Part of that is attributable to their frequent use of bullpen games — a strategy that can take its toll on a relief corps over time. The Giants have received strong work from Ryan Walker, Sean Hjelle, Taylor Rogers and Tyler Rogers this season. Closer Camilo Doval has been less effective than in the past, with a pedestrian 4.04 ERA and worrisome 14.2% walk rate (the worst mark of his career). Rookie right-hander Randy Rodriguez has been decent in middle relief, but fellow rookie Landen Roupp and veteran Luke Jackson have struggled. As is the case with the rotation, the bullpen has a talented core group but could certainly stand to be deepened.

On the position player side of things, the Giants have received strong production from each of catcher, first base and third base. Patrick Bailey has emerged as a cornerstone piece behind the dish. Veteran OBP machine LaMonte Wade Jr. is a sound option at first base. Matt Chapman is hitting well and playing plus defense at the hot corner.

In the outfield, the Giants have seen former top prospect Heliot Ramos break out as an All-Star. Michael Conforto’s recent hot streak (.289/.391/.658 over his past 15 games) has pulled him back to above-average offensive production on the whole. Mike Yastrzemski has underwhelmed thus far and will presumably platoon with Luis Matos for the time being. Jorge Soler has produced average offense out of the DH spot but isn’t going anywhere in the first season of a three-year, $42MM deal.

The middle infield is far less set in stone. The recent DFA of Nick Ahmed has Tyler Fitzgerald and Brett Wisely ticketed for frequent reps there. Both are hitting well but doing so with some particularly good fortune on balls in play. Second baseman Thairo Estrada just returned from the injured list but has batted only .227/.260/.371 in 315 plate appearances when healthy — a far cry from the .266/.320/.416 he slashed from 2021-23.

Perhaps Zaidi is correct in suggesting that there’s no glaring need where the Giants are performing with disastrous results and no reinforcements on the horizon. The sixth-year president of baseball operations spoke of the importance of allowing players like Fitzgerald and Matos to come to the big leagues and feel they have an opportunity to earn playing time, just as Ramos has.

At the same time, banking on production from so many unproven assets is a risky proposition for a team that, despite a sub-.500 record, has a legitimate playoff chance. It’s always a fine line to walk, giving players like Fitzgerald and Matos chances at playing time while also striving to remain competitive. The Giants are also sitting on a club-record $208MM payroll and are presently about $16MM north of the luxury tax threshold, per RosterResource. It’s not clear just how much ownership is willing to tack onto that record spending — if they’re willing to at all.

Giants Designate Nick Ahmed For Assignment

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The Giants announced a series of roster moves today, with left-hander Blake Snell as well as infielders Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada all reinstated from the injured list. One spot on the active roster was already opened when they traded outfielder Austin Slater to the Reds. They opened two more by optioning left-hander Kolton Ingram and designating shortstop Nick Ahmed for assignment. The latter move drops the 40-man roster count to 39.

Ahmed signed with San Francisco on a minor league deal early in Spring Training. The longtime Diamondback essentially took over for Brandon Crawford as a glove-first veteran shortstop. Ahmed hit well during exhibition play and made the roster, locking in a reported $1.5MM base salary in the process. He picked up the Opening Day nod at shortstop — the first time a player other than Crawford got that honor since Miguel Tejada back in 2011 — and went on to start 50 games overall.

As is typically the case with Ahmed, virtually all of his contributions came on defense. Statcast credited him as four runs better than average across 426 innings. Defensive Runs Saved was less bullish, grading him one run below par. He hit in the bottom third of the batting order and ran a .232/.278/.303 slash line with one homer over 172 plate appearances.

Ahmed is a two-time Gold Glove winner who has been one of the sport’s preeminent defensive shortstops throughout his career. While he’s still a good defender, his numbers have taken a step back from elite levels as he has gotten into his mid 30s. Ahmed has never been much of an offensive threat and has particularly struggled over the past few seasons. Since the start of the 2021 campaign, he owns a .222/.273/.330 line in a little more than 900 trips.

Estrada’s return from the IL will likely push Brett Wisely from second base to shortstop, at least against right-handed pitching. Righty hitting Tyler Fitzgerald is in the lineup tonight against Toronto southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. While the 25-year-old Wisely is stretched defensively at shortstop, he provides a higher offensive ceiling than Ahmed brought. Wisely owns a decent .278/.313/.421 slash through 135 plate appearances in his second MLB campaign.

The Giants have five days to trade Ahmed or place him on waivers. He has well over five years of MLB service time and would retain his entire salary if he clears waivers and becomes a free agent. A release is the likeliest outcome. Once Ahmed clears waivers, he could sign with another team for the prorated portion of the $740K minimum.

Meanwhile, Snell returns for his first MLB action in nearly six weeks. San Francisco’s late signing could hardly have gone worse to this point. Snell has battled groin issues throughout the year and been limited to six starts. Opponents have teed off on the defending NL Cy Young winner for a 9.51 earned run average through 23 2/3 innings. Snell will try to get his season on track when he takes on the Blue Jays this evening.

Reds Acquire Austin Slater

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The Reds and Giants have swung a late night deal with just over three weeks to go until the trade deadline. Per an announcement from both clubs, the Reds have acquired outfielder Austin Slater from San Francisco in exchange for left-hander Alex Young. Cincinnati is also receiving cash considerations as part of the deal. The Giants optioned Young to Triple-A following the transaction.

Slater, 31, has been in the Giants organization for more than a decade. His professional career began when he was selected by the club out of Stanford in the eighth round of the 2014 draft, though he wouldn’t make his big league debut with the club until his age-24 season in 2017. Slater was largely a part-time player during his first few years in San Francisco, and he amassed just 544 plate appearances in the majors between 2017 and 2019. In that limited playing time, he posted a decent .254/.335/.368 slash line that was good for a 92 wRC+ while splitting time between all three outfield spots, first base, and even making brief cameos at both second and third base.

The shortened 2020 season saw Slater break out in a big way, as he posted an excellent 150 wRC+ for the Giants while appearing in 31 of the club’s 60 games that year while playing mostly right field and DH for the club. That offensive explosion earned Slater a larger role in the following years, and while most of his playing time still came against left-handed pitching he fashioned more of a proper platoon role for himself as opposed to the reserve outfield role he had been utilized in previously. Slater took to the increased responsibilities quite well, and between the 2020 and 2023 seasons the lefty masher hit a solid .259/.352/.421 (118 wRC+).

That line goes from solid to sensational when looking exclusively at his production against southpaws, against whom he mashed to the tune of a .285/.380/.486 line with a wRC+ of 141. That production against left-handed pitching was good for 17th-best in baseball during that four year period, on par with star hitters such as Jose Altuve and Xander Bogaerts.

While the Giants leaned heavily on Slater as a platoon partner for a primarily left-handed outfield featuring sluggers such as Mike Yastrzemski, Michael Conforto, and Joc Pederson during those years, Slater’s playing time was further cut down by injury woes. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, Slater has made seven trips to the injured list for groin, hamstring, wrist, and hand issues as well as multiple concussions. Slater also required elbow surgery last offseason to remove a bone spur and relieve nerve pain.

It’s possible that lengthy list of injury issues has helped to contribute to what has been a difficult 2024 season for the 31-year-old, as he’s hit just .200/.330/.244 in 112 trips to the plate this season surrounding a month-long stay on the IL due to a concussion earlier this year. Those struggles ultimately paved the way for youngsters Heliot Ramos and Luis Matos to squeeze Slater out of playing time in the Giants outfield, as Ramos has stepped up to become a regular fixture in center field while Matos serves as a righty complement off the bench for Yastrzemski and Conforto.

In acquiring Slater, the Reds are surely hoping they can coax some of that lefty-mashing ability he flashed in previous years out of him in order to make him a quality platoon partner for the club’s many left-handed hitting outfielders. Slater’s main competition for playing time in that role figures to be Stuart Fairchild, who has slashed a lackluster .224/.298/.347 (81 wRC+) in 189 trips to the plate this year. In the short term, however, both Fairchild and Slater figure to get plenty of reps alongside Will Benson and Spencer Steer in the club’s outfield mix thanks to the absences of Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, and Nick Martini. Fraley is currently on the family medical emergency list and will likely return within a few days, but both Friedl and Martini are on the injured list and are facing potentially lengthy absences.

In exchange for parting ways with Slater, the Giants are receiving some left-handed bullpen help in the form of Young. Once a second-round pick by the Diamondbacks in the 2015 draft, the lefty made his big league debut back in 2019 and generally struggled at the major league level in a swing role with Arizona and Cleveland. That changed in 2022, when Young was acquired by San Francisco in a cash deal with the Guardians and began pitching in a short relief role full-time. The lefty performed quite well during his first stint with the Giants and posted a 2.39 ERA and 2.96 FIP across 26 1/3 innings of work before being non-tendered by San Francisco the following November.

Young eventually caught on with the Reds on a minor league deal prior to the 2023 season and has remained with the club ever since. He posted solid results in middle relief with the club last year, pitching to a 3.86 ERA despite a lackluster 4.99 FIP. While Young’s 21.2% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate were both perfectly solid, he allowed a whopping ten homers during his 53 2/3 innings of work with the Reds last year.

Young has spent most of the 2024 season at the Triple-A level for the Reds, although he’s posted impressive numbers both in his two scoreless innings at the big league level and in his larger body of work in the minors. In 23 appearances with the club’s affiliate in Louisville this year, Young has posted a sparkling 1.19 ERA while striking out a solid 25.3% of batters faced. Unfortunately, the lefty hasn’t been able to get much playing time in the majors with the Reds this year thanks to the club’s deep bullpen, which features each of Justin Wilson, Sam Moll, and Brent Suter as quality left-handed options.

That made Young expendable enough that the Reds were willing to part ways with him, and it’s easy to see how the lefty could impact a Giants bullpen that has leaned heavily on Erik Miller to act as a secondary lefty reliever behind high-leverage arm Taylor Rogers. Miller, a 26-year-old rookie with a 3.51 ERA and 4.49 FIP in 41 innings of work this year, features a much more pronounced platoon split than Young has in recent years, and the spacious outfield of Oracle Park should be a great fit for Young that helps to curtail his proclivity for giving up homers.

San Francisco is also sending cash to Cincinnati in the deal alongside Slater, a fact that could factor into the club’s final luxury tax calculation later this year. Prior to the swap, RosterResource indicated that the Giants have a luxury tax payroll of just under $254MM, or just over $3MM below the second threshold of the luxury tax. Slater is making $4MM this year, while Young is earning a salary of $1.16MM. Depending on the amount of cash the Giants are including in the deal, it’s possible that the trade provides the additional benefit of offering the club additional financial wiggle room below the second luxury tax threshold.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Giants Activate Kyle Harrison From 15-Day IL

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The Giants officially reinstated left-hander Kyle Harrison from the 15-day injured list this afternoon, as Harrison is set to make the start in today’s game with the Guardians.  San Francisco also called up southpaw Kolton Ingram from Double-A, and right-hander Spencer Bivens and infielder David Villar were both optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding moves.

Regarded as one of baseball’s top pitching prospects, Harrison made his MLB debut last season and was slated to take a regular spot in the Giants’ rotation this season.  A sprained right ankle sent him to the IL on June 13, but before Harrison became the latest Giants hurler sidelined by injury, the results in terms of bottom-line numbers were pretty solid.  Harrison had a 3.96 ERA in 14 starts and 77 1/3 innings, as well as an above-average 6.7% walk rate.  Since control was a big question mark for Harrison in Triple-A in 2023, that decent walk rate is a very nice sign of the 22-year-old development as a big league starter.

The rest of the secondary metrics weren’t as glowing for Harrison, as he is allowing a lot of hard contact and his 20.6% strikeout rate ranks only in the 38th percentile of all pitchers.  Harrison is getting great results from the four-seamer he throws 62.5% of the time, but batters have been feasting on his secondary pitches, giving Harrison something of a predictable repertoire.

Plenty of adjustments are sure to come for a pitcher who is still so early in his pro career, as Harrison was a third-round pic in the 2020 draft.  Perhaps most importantly for the 2024 version of the Giants, Harrison was both effective and durable prior to his ankle injury, and his return allows the Giants to fill one hole in what has been another makeshift rotation for the club.  Logan Webb and reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks have been San Francisco’s other two stable starters, but the Giants have cycled multiple pitchers through the other two rotation spots with little success.

Blake Snell is expected to return from his latest IL stint this week, as the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner looks to finally get his Giants tenure on track after a horrific first three months.  Robbie Ray (Tommy John surgery) and Alex Cobb (hip surgery) should both return from their lengthy rehabs in the second half to provide some further reinforcement, so if the 44-45 Giants can at least tread water in the playoff race, they could look to be buyers at the July 30 deadline.

Ingram’s recall gives San Francisco another fresh arm in the bullpen, and it also puts Ingram in line for the first MLB action of what has been a tumultuous five months for the 27-year-old left-hander.  Since the start of February, Ingram has been a member of six different organizations due to recurring series of waiver claims, and just last week, the Cardinals’ decision to designate Ingram for assignment opened the door for the Giants to again pluck him off the waiver wire.  Ingram made his Major League last season, tossing 5 1/3 innings over five appearances with the Angels.

Guardians Acquire Spencer Howard From Giants

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The Guardians have acquired right-hander Spencer Howard from the Giants, per Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle on X. The Giants, who designated the righty for assignment recently, will receive cash considerations in return. The Guardians announced that they have designated righty Wes Parsons for assignment to open up a 40-man spot.

Howard, 27, was with the Giants on a minor league deal at the start of this year and opened the season with ten Triple-A starts. He had a 5.90 earned run average in that time, though he probably deserved better than that. His 32.2% strikeout rate was quite strong and his 9.6% walk rate only slightly on the high side. But he had a .406 batting average on balls in play and 66.1% strand rate in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, so his 4.12 FIP was almost two runs better than his ERA.

The Giants added him to their roster at the end of May and he spent just over a month with the club in a swing role. He tossed 24 innings over seven outings, two of those being starts, with a 5.63 ERA. It’s possible that luck played a role again, as his .388 BABIP in that time was well above average, but his strikeout rate also plummeted to 18.4% in the majors. His most recent outing was especially tough, as he allowed six earned runs in 2 2/3 innings. Since he’s out of options, he was bumped off the 40-man.

The Guardians are perhaps intrigued by those Triple-A strikeout numbers that Howard had earlier this year, or perhaps his past status as a notable prospect. A second-round pick of the Phillies in 2017, he was considered one of the top prospects in the league, with Baseball America giving him the #27 overall spot in 2020 and 2021. He went to the Rangers in the 2021 deadline deal that sent Kyle Gibson and Ian Kennedy the other way.

Unfortunately, Howard has never been able to find much success in the big leagues. Between his time with the Phillies, Rangers and Giants, he has 139 innings in the majors with a 6.93 ERA, 19.9% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. His work in the minors hasn’t been much better in recent years, as he’s tossed 143 1/3 innings on the farm since the start of 2021 with a 4.83 ERA, though that minor league work has come with a 31.7% strikeout rate.

Since Howard is out of options, the Guards will be hoping that he can quickly start getting punchouts at the big league level, likely in a long relief role. The rotation has lost Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery and they recently optioned a struggling Triston McKenzie, but they have a starting five of Tanner Bibee, Ben Lively, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco.

If the Guards can figure out how to get Howard on track, there could be long-term benefits. He’s out of options but can be retained via arbitration for three seasons beyond this one if he holds onto his roster spot for the rest of the year.

Parsons, 31, started the year with the Blue Jays but was designated for assignment in early April and flipped to the Guardians for international bonus pool space. He has spent most of the year in a swing role in Triple-A, with 25 2/3 innings over 12 outings, five of those being starts. He had a 4.21 ERA in that time but may have been lucky to have it that low. He struck out 29.3% of batters faced but also gave out walks at a huge 17.1% clip. Were it not for an 84.6% strand rate, he would have fared much worse, which is why he had a 6.06 FIP for Columbus.

The Guards will now have a week to trade Parsons or pass him through waivers. The recent numbers aren’t too exciting but he is in his final option year and could perhaps appeal to club bit by the injury bug that wants a bit more starting depth in the minors.

Which Other Postseason Hopefuls Might Have Arms To Spare?

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The Rays made a somewhat unconventional trade Wednesday, shipping right-hander Aaron Civale to the Brewers in exchange for infield prospect Gregory Barrios. Tampa Bay had the luxury of moving a current member of its rotation despite the fact that the team is still in the Wild Card race and still harbors postseason aspirations. That's due primarily to the organizational depth in the rotation, which was thin earlier in the season but is deepening as the year wears on and as injured arms like Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and (eventually) Drew Rasmussen reenter the fold. Baz will step into the Rays' rotation in Civale's place this Friday.

Most teams don't have that type of cushion. Starting pitching is always at a premium, and starters -- particularly those with multiple years of club control remaining -- tend to be the most coveted asset at nearly every MLB trade deadline.

And yet, the Rays aren't the only club that's poised to operate in this capacity over the next 27 days. There are a handful of teams who could walk the line of dealing from the big league roster -- specifically the rotation -- despite hoping to find themselves playing a prominent role in October baseball. Let's take a look at some possibilities.

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Checking In On 2024’s Reliever-To-Rotation Experiments: July Edition

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About a quarter of the way through the 2024 season, I took a look at how the most prominent examples of teams’ attempts to turn an established reliever into a starter had progressed. At the time, the majority of these experiments were going well, by and large. At that mid-May juncture, most of the relievers making the switch had yet to reach their innings workloads from the season prior. Now that we’re at the season’s halfway point, that’s no longer the case. Many of the pitchers striving to make this jump are now approaching or have already eclipsed their 2023 innings totals — if not their career-high workloads — so it seems a good time to check back on how they’re faring.

As a reminder, the focus here is pitchers who pitched exclusively or near-exclusively out of the bullpen last season. Someone like the Rays’ Zack Littell or Red Sox’ Kutter Crawford, who moved into the rotation last summer and continued that move this year, isn’t the focus.

Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox

Stats at quarter mark: 9 games started, 46 2/3 innings, 4.63 ERA (2.47 SIERA), 34.2 K%, 4.8 BB%, 43.8 GB%

Stats since: 9 GS, 54 2/3 innings, 1.65 ERA (2.27 SIERA), 36.3 K%, 5.2 BB%, 45.5 GB%

At the 25% mark of the season, Crochet sat on a pedestrian ERA but elite K-BB profile. His production had been skewed by a series of three straight rough outings: five runs versus the Reds, seven in Philadelphia and another five in Minnesota.

Those three starts still stand as the worst three of his season. Crochet hasn’t yielded more than three runs in a single outing since that time. He’s not only maintained his elite K-BB profile but improved upon it, slightly upping his strikeout rate while sustaining his exceptional command. No starter in baseball is striking out hitters at a higher rate than Crochet, and only 12 are limiting their walks more effectively.

At last check, Crochet had ace-like rate stats but pedestrian run-prevention numbers overall. That’s no longer the case. The only question as to whether Crochet is a bona fide No. 1 starter is one of durability. All of the pieces are there, but Crochet has never pitched a full season in the rotation. In fact, this year’s combined 101 1/3 innings not only stand as a career-high, they eclipse his combined total of professional innings pitched — majors and minors combined — since being selected in the first round of the 2020 draft.

With two and a half years of team control left, a bottom-of-the-barrel $800K salary and the worst team in baseball behind him, Crochet stands as a clear-cut trade candidate. The Sox reportedly broached the possibility of an extension with him but are now expecting to trade him after contract talks failed to progress. A new team will have to worry about how Crochet will hold up down the stretch, but there’s little doubting that he’s a front-of-the-rotation talent.

Jordan Hicks, RHP, Giants

Stats at quarter mark: 9 GS, 48 innings, 2.44 ERA (3.99 SIERA), 19.9 K%, 8.2 BB%, 56.2 GB%

Stats since: 8 GS, 37 2/3 innings, 4.54 ERA (4.29 SIERA), 22.2 K%, 10.2 BB%, 45.8 GB%

Early on, Hicks was thriving in terms of run-prevention in spite of a pedestrian strikeout rate. He’s picked up the strikeout rate a bit since that time but has seen his command, ground-ball rate and velocity all drop. After averaging 5 1/3 innings through his first nine starts, Hicks is averaging about 4 2/3 innings per outing and has seen his average sinker velocity drop by nearly two miles per hour. Since mid-May, his sinker is averaging 93.5 mph — down from the 95.5 mph at last check and even further from the 100.2 mph Hicks averaged in his time as a reliever.

Hicks has struggled to turn the lineup over multiple times. Opponents own an awful .196/.268/.348 slash when facing him the first time in a game. Unlike many pitchers, who experience a stark drop when facing opponents a third time, Hicks’ troubles begin the second trip through the order. Opponents in those settings carry a .267/.373/.382 slash. He’s only faced a hitter for the third time on a given day 57 times this season, but opponents have batted .283/.333/.434 in that small sample.

Back in May, I noted that opponents had posted an embarrassing .079/.167/.105 slash in the 42 plate appearances Hicks had finished off with a splitter. They’ve fared better against the pitch since that time, though it’d be hard to have performed much worse. And, with opponents still slashing only .160/.244/.272 against the pitch (which Statcast credits with a .270 expected wOBA), that newly implemented offering still has the look of a plus pitch.

Hicks has remained reasonably effective but hasn’t been the roaring success he was through the first quarter of the season. San Francisco signed the 27-year-old flamethrower to a four-year, $44MM deal and did so with an eye toward Hicks starting, so it’s clear this is a multi-year undertaking. Nothing Hicks has done to date suggests he decidedly can’t handle being a starter, but he’s faded from his early-season production, which is perhaps to be expected for a pitcher whose 85 2/3 innings are already a career-high mark.

The manner in which Hicks has begun to fade only further underscores the remarkable nature of Crochet’s performance to date as he navigates uncharted workload territory. That said, Hicks has an overall 3.36 ERA with a nearly average strikeout rate, a manageable walk rate and a plus ground-ball rate. There have been some roadblocks of late, but this year could serve as a launching pad to a better performance in 2025-27, when he’s more accustomed to his current workload.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Braves

Stats at quarter mark: 7 GS, 40 1/3 innings, 1.34 ERA (4.00 SIERA), 25.2 K%, 10.1 BB%, 40.2 GB%

Stats since: 7 GS, 39 innings, 2.08 ERA (3.58 SIERA), 26.1 K%, 7.0 BB%, 32.7 GB%

The Braves have been judicious with Lopez’s start-by-start workload thus far. He hasn’t topped 94 pitches in a single appearance and has only recorded four outs after the sixth inning all season. So far, that level of caution has paid off. Since last check, Lopez hasn’t lost any life of his heater and has actually tacked on 0.4 mph on average, per Statcast.

Atlanta doesn’t often give Lopez the opportunity to turn the lineup over a third time, and the opportunities he’s had haven’t gone well. Lopez has yielded a mid-.500s OPS to opponents the first or second time through the order but has been tagged for a .245/.359/.396 batting line the third time through. It’s not egregious, but it’s far less dominant than his first couple trips through a lineup.

Lopez is still running a plus strikeout rate, and he’s improved his command and his velocity as the season has worn on. As the only member of this list who’s previously worked multiple full seasons as a starter, he might have been the best-equipped to handle this transition, and so far it doesn’t appear he’s slowing down much at all.

Lopez entered the season with a career 71.1% strand rate, and he’s currently stranding 86.3% of his baserunners. His .279 average on balls in play is lower than league average but right in line with his career .281 mark. He’s allowed only 0.45 homers per nine frames, thanks in large part to a paltry 4.7% homer-to-flyball ratio that sits well shy of his career 11.3% mark. There’s some correlation there; it’s easier to strand runners if you’re almost never allowing a ball to clear the outfield fence, after all. In all likelihood, both that HR/FB and strand rate will trend toward his career marks as the season (and, more broadly, his three-year contract) wears on, but the outside-the-box bet on Lopez as a starter looks like one that will pay off for Atlanta.

Jose Soriano, RHP, Angels

Stats at quarter mark: 7 GS, 38 2/3 innings, 3.72 ERA (4.03 SIERA), 20.3 K%, 9.5 BB%, 61.5 GB%

Stats since: 5 GS, 33 2/3 innings, 3.21 ERA (3.97 SIERA), 16.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 58.6 GB%

Soriano was continuing his sharp start to the season when he was scratched from a mid-June start due to abdominal pain. The Halos discovered an infection in the young righty’s abdomen that required a trip to the injured list and was expected to sideline him a few weeks. That’s thrown a bit of a wrench into his rotation breakout, though there’s no indication it’s a serious issue and the Halos can take solace in the fact that there’s no arm issue at play. And, after pitching just 65 1/3 innings last season, Soriano is already at 72 1/3 frames this year, so perhaps it can serve as a well-timed breather for his right arm.

The 25-year-old Soriano’s first run as a starter in the big leagues this season looked promising through mid-May and continues to do so. Impressively, he hasn’t lost any life on his four-seamer or sinker despite the shift from short relief to starting work. Statcast measured his average four-seamer at 98.9 mph in both 2023 and 2024, while his sinker clocked in at an average of 97.7 mph in 2023 and is actually marginally better in 2024 at 97.8 mph.

That sinker has helped Soriano run up an elite ground-ball rate; his 60.1% grounder rate ranks third among the 145 big league pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched this year, trailing only Framber Valdez (61.4%) and Cristopher Sanchez (60.3%). That uptick in grounder rate over last year’s 51% mark correlates with a huge spike in Soriano’s sinker usage (13.3% in ’23, 40% in ’24). The extra sinker usage has come at the expense of some four-seamers (25.8% in ’23, 17.8% in ’24) and particularly Soriano’s knuckle curve (41.2% in ’23, 27.5% in ’24).

The tweak in repertoire could come down to a pursuit of efficiency as Soriano looks to work deeper into games. The right-hander fanned 30.3% of opponents last season and registered a hearty 14.8% swinging-strike rate but also required 16.6 pitches per inning pitched, on average. In 2024, his strikeout rate is down to 20.3% with a 10.2% swinging-strike rate. But he’s significantly upped his grounder rate and is now averaging just 15.1 pitches per frame. Soriano averaged 6 2/3 innings per start in the five appearances between our last check and this one, so it seems clear he’s placing an emphasis on being able to work deeper into games in his new role. Opponents are hitting .313/.421/.521 in 58 plate appearances when facing him a third time, so the results aren’t there so far, however.

Bryse Wilson, RHP, Brewers

Stats at quarter mark: 11 G (5 GS), 34 innings, 2.65 ERA (4.60 SIERA), 20.4 K%, 10.9 BB%, 39.1 GB%

Stats since: 9 G (4 GS), 44 innings, 5.52 ERA (4.27 SIERA), 17.6 K%, 6.7 BB%, 41.3 GB%

Wilson hasn’t technically “started” each of his past nine appearances, but he’s averaged five innings per outing while working as a starter and bulk reliever (on the heels of an opener). Effectively, the Brewers are using him as a starter — they’re just shielding him from the top-third of some lineups on occasion, when the matchup dictates.

This wasn’t a planned move to a longer role. The former Braves top prospect and Pirates hurler entered the season slated for a second straight season as Milwaukee’s long man, but injuries to Wade Miley, Joe Ross, Robert Gasser and DL Hall combined to not only push Wilson into this rotation-ish role but to keep him there. After pitching 76 2/3 innings of pure long relief in 2023, Wilson is already at 78 frames and counting.

As one would typically expect, Wilson’s fastball has taken a slight dip as he’s stretched out for longer stints. He averaged 94 mph through the season’s first quarter, but several of those earlier appearances were still in short relief. He’s averaging 93.2 mph since mid-May and has seen his strikeout rate drop but also seen his walk rate improve. As he’s been tasked with facing more lefties, Wilson has upped his changeup and cutter usage a bit, doing so at the expense of his four-seamer and curveball.

Wilson has been far too homer-prone this season (1.62 HR/9) and is giving up too much hard contact (45.8%, per Statcast). More so than any pitcher on this list, he’s run into troubles the third time through the order; in 45 such plate appearances, they’ve posted a Herculean .400/.467/.650 slash. Those plate appearances account for just 13.6% of Wilson’s batters faced this season but have resulted in 21.5% of his home runs allowed. Wilson seems best suited for a long relief role or a five-inning start/bulk role, but he’s pitched more than five innings six times this season and is giving Milwaukee some desperately needed innings when their rotation is in tatters.

A.J. Puk, LHP, Marlins

Stats at quarter mark: 4 GS, 13 2/3 innings, 9.22 ERA (7.13 SIERA), 15.6 K%, 22.1 BB%, 31.9 GB%

Stats since: 0  GS, 21 1/3 innings, 2.95 ERA (3.36 SIERA), 21.4 K%, 4.8 BB%, 44.3 GB%

The Marlins quickly pulled the plug on the Puk rotation experiment, and it’s worked out for all parties. The former No. 6 overall pick (A’s, 2016) turned heads as a starter in spring training but was shelled in what currently stand as the only four starts of his big league career (though Puk was a starter both for the University of Florida and in the minor leagues).

It’s unlikely that Puk would’ve continued to struggle quite so substantially had Miami continued using him as a starter, but the left-hander certainly looks more comfortable in the short relief role in which he thrived from 2022-23 (123 innings, 3.51 ERA, 19 saves, 22 holds, 29.4 K%, 6.9 BB%). He’s performing far better in his old role, and he required a three-week stint on the injured list for shoulder fatigue following his early start in the rotation.

There’s no reason to fault the Marlins for trying to stretch out a clearly talented reliever who has a track record in the rotation, but Puk is back in the bullpen and figures to draw attention over the next month from teams seeking left-handed bullpen help. He’s controllable through the 2026 season.

Tyler Alexander, LHP, Rays

Stats at quarter mark: 7 G (5 GS), 39 2/3 innings, 5.45 ERA (4.44 SIERA), 19.1 K%, 6.9 BB%, 30.4 GB%

Stats since: 3 G (1 GS), 17 innings, 7.94 ERA (3.68 SIERA), 20.3 K%, 1.4 BB%, 27.8 GB%

Alexander entered the season in the same type of role Wilson currently holds with the Brewers: occasional starter and frequent bulk reliever behind an opener. He made a handful of solid appearances early on, though the value of those was offset by some particularly rough outings versus the Yankees (six runs in seven innings) and the Royals (eight runs in five innings).

Following our last check-in, Alexander made three appearances before being optioned to Triple-A Durham, where he’s worked quite effectively out of the Bulls’ rotation: five starts, 29 2/3 innings, 3.64 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 2.4% walk rate. That should position him as a depth option in the event of a big league injury and/or trade. Tampa Bay reportedly has considered fielding offers on current members of its big league rotation — Zack Littell and Aaron Civale, most notably. Part of that is due to the looming returns of Shane Baz and Jeffrey Springs, but Alexander gives them another rotation candidate who’s performed well recently in Durham.

The Rays haven’t abandoned the Alexander starting experiment, but for the time being he’s not in their big league rotation plans. Speculatively, that could make Alexander himself a trade option for teams seeking back-of-the-rotation depth, though if the Rays do ultimately move Littell, Civale or a more expensive arm like Zach Eflin, they may not want to deplete the rotation depth much further.

Giants Claim Kolton Ingram From Cardinals

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The Giants have claimed lefty reliever Kolton Ingram off waivers from the Cardinals and optioned him to Double-A Richmond, the team announced. San Francisco also reinstated outfielder Mike Yastrzemski from the 10-day injured list and optioned right-hander Landon Roupp. The Giants had an opening on the 40-man roster after designating Spencer Howard for assignment over the weekend. St. Louis had DFA Ingram on Sunday.

So continues a nomadic year for Ingram, who hasn’t actually pitched in the majors this season. The 27-year-old southpaw has nevertheless been a part of six organizations this calendar year. Since being designated for assignment by the Angels when the Halos signed Aaron Hicks in January, he has gone to the Tigers, Mets, Rangers, Cardinals and now Giants via waivers.

Up to this point, Ingram has spent the entire season in Triple-A. He owns a 4.26 ERA across 25 1/3 innings. Teams have remained intrigued by him as a depth option despite a mediocre strikeout and walk profile. Ingram owns an average 22.8% strikeout percentage while walking a massive 16.7% of batters faced at the top minor league level this season.

The Giants will keep him out of the Pacific Coast League for the moment, sending him back to Double-A. Ingram has an excellent 2.46 earned run average in 102 1/3 career Double-A frames. He has a 3.66 mark over 59 innings in parts of three seasons in Triple-A. Ingram has only logged a cup of coffee in the big leagues, tossing 5 1/3 innings of seven-run ball with the Halos last year.

Taylor Rogers and Erik Miller are the lefty duo in Bob Melvin’s bullpen. The Giants briefly called up Raymond Burgos to make his MLB debut before sending him outright off the 40-man roster a few days ago. Ethan Small would occupy a 40-man spot when healthy, but he’s been on the injured list all season after suffering a Spring Training oblique strain.

The Risk/Reward Of Acquiring Players With Opt-Outs

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With four weeks until the trade deadline, a lot remains uncertain. Most teams still find themselves in a muddled middle and will wait until the last few days to determine how aggressively they'll buy or sell. That's especially true in the National League, where nine teams are within six games of one another as they fight for the final two Wild Card spots. The Mets, Giants and Cubs are among those borderline contenders. It wouldn't be especially surprising to see any of them wind up as sellers depending on how they play over the next few weeks.

The Mets are the NL's top non-playoff team and approaching the deadline as a buyer for the moment. Dropping a few games back in the standings by the end of the month could change that mentality. San Francisco and Chicago are a little further out and perhaps likelier sellers. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested late last week that the team would need to perform better to avoid a sell-off. Why focus on those three specifically? Each has a notable player who'd be desirable trade candidates if not for their contract structures.

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