Pitcher Notes: Nova, Bumgarner, Cashner, Miller
Free agent right-hander Ivan Nova has received offers in the three-year, $36MM range, agent Greg Genske told MLB Network Radio on Sunday (Twitter link). Genske didn’t indicate whether richer proposals have come in, but 3/36 seems seems light for Nova – who MLBTR predicts will land a four-year, $52MM deal in a weak market. The former run-of-the-mill Yankees starter was highly effective down the stretch in 2016 as a member of the Pirates, with whom he logged a 3.06 ERA, 7.29 K/9 and .42 BB/9 in 64 2/3 innings.
More pitcher-related news and notes:
- Thanks to the extension they signed left-hander Madison Bumgarner to in 2012, the Giants have the ace under control at eminently reasonable prices through the 2019 season, during which he’ll turn 30. But San Francisco wants to lock up Bumgarner beyond then, as “solidifying that relationship long-term is a real priority for them,” Genske said (Twitter link). That jibes with what Giants CEO Larry Baer stated last month: “[Bumgarner has] been a tremendous asset for us. He’s done historic things. But, look, obviously, we want to make Madison a Giant for a long, long time to come – well-beyond his current contract.”
- The Indians’ Andrew Miller has turned into one of baseball’s most dominant late-game weapons, but his emergence as a reliever only came after he failed as a starter. With that in mind, Mike Petriello of MLB.com sees three struggling starters – the Yankees’ Michael Pineda, free agent Andrew Cashner and the Padres’ Jarred Cosart – as candidates to eventually follow in Miller’s footsteps. While Petriello acknowledges that a role change in 2017 is unlikely for Pineda, he argues that turning the hard-throwing 27-year-old into a reliever who relies on a fastball/slider combo would serve him well. Cashner also features a high-velocity fastball and a slider, but he has posted disappointing numbers as a starter while dealing with durability issues. Cosart, meanwhile, has difficulty in longer appearances. Opposing hitters have posted a .359 wOBA against him the third time through the order, up from .301 and .290 the first two trips, according to Petriello.
- Like Petriello, ESPN’s Keith Law is a proponent of moving Cashner to the bullpen (Insider required and recommended). While Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon will collect the most money among this offseason’s class of free agent closers, Law regards Cashner, Daniel Hudson, Greg Holland and Luke Hochevar as bargain alternatives to the high-profile trio. Going the trade route for bullpen help is also possible, of course, and Law wonders if the Indians will shop Miller – on whom they relied heavily this past season. Miller is due a palatable $18MM through 2018, but that’s not a pittance for a low-payroll club.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/13/16
The latest minor moves from around the sport, all of which come courtesy of Matt Eddy of Baseball America:
- Infielder Josh Rutledge, whom the Red Sox outrighted Nov. 3, has elected free agency. Rutledge has seen major league action in each of the past five seasons, hitting .262/.312/.397 with 23 home runs and 20 steals across 1,088 plate appearances with Colorado and Boston.
- Like Rutledge, Reds utilityman Ivan De Jesus has also elected free agency in lieu of an outright assignment. De Jesus picked up 465 PAs with the Reds during the previous two seasons and garnered playing time in the infield and outfield, but he batted just .249/.311/.341 along the way. Cincinnati also released right-hander Soid Marquez, who threw 186 2/3 innings with low-level Reds affiliates from 2012-16 and posted a 5.26 ERA, 6.7 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9.
- The Cubs have added right-hander Jose Rosario to their 40-man roster and re-signed righty Nick Sarianides and catcher Gioskar Amaya to minor league contracts. The 26-year-old Rosario has been with the Cubs throughout his professional career, which began in 2009, and logged a combined 2.50 ERA, 7.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 at three minor league levels in 2016. Sarianides, formerly with Cleveland and Arizona, threw 25 innings with the Cubs’ Double-A affiliate this year and put up a 3.60 ERA, 10.08 K/9 and 3.24 BB/9. Amaya, 23, has hit .274/.356/.388 in seven seasons with various Cubs minor league affiliates.
- The Cardinals have added shortstop Breyvic Valera to their 40-man roster and re-signed catcher Alberto Rosario and righty Robby Rowland to minor league deals. Valera, 24, slashed an outstanding .341/.417/.415 in 257 PAs with Triple-A Memphis this year. The 29-year-old Rosario made his major league debut in 2016, hitting .184/.225/.237 in 41 trips to the plate with the Cardinals. Rowland spent the season with three of St. Louis’ minor league affiliates and registered a 3.92 ERA, 9.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in just 20 2/3 innings.
- The Royals have released catcher Chad Johnson and six pitchers – Alex Close, Daniel Concepcion, Jason Freeman, Nick Andros, Christian Flecha and Cole Way. Kansas City drafted all but two of those players, Freeman and Andros. The club also re-signed righty Roman Colon and second baseman Ramon A. Castro to to minor league agreements. Colon tossed 187 1/3 major league innings from 2004-12, including 60 1/3 with the Royals, but hasn’t pitched in an affiliated minor league since 2013.
- The Orioles are bringing back right-handed reliever Richard Rodriguez on a minor league pact. He’ll now enter his third year as a member of the Orioles, with whom he has pitched 123 1/3 innings between the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Rodriguez, 26, recorded 2.53 ERA, 8.93 K/9 and 2.76 BB/9 with Triple-A Norfolk this past season.
- The Padres have signed righties Trey McNutt and Bryan Rodriguez to minors contracts. McNutt, once a well-regarded Cubs prospect, nearly went to Boston in 2011 in a deal for now-Chicago president Theo Epstein. He remained with the Cubs through 2015, though, before latching on with the Padres this past season. The 27-year-old threw a mere 7 1/3 minor league innings in his first season with the Friars organization. Rodriguez combined for 145 1/3 innings between the Padres’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, totaling a 4.46 ERA, 5.1 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9.
- The Braves have re-signed catcher Braeden Schlehuber to a minor league deal. The 28-year-old has been a member of the Atlanta organization since it selected him in the fourth round of the 2010 draft, but he hasn’t gotten past the Triple-A level. Schlehuber collected 116 plate appearances with Triple-A Gwinnett in 2016 and hit .236/.254/.300.
- The Giants have re-signed 27-year-old shortstop Ali Castillo to a minor league agreement. Castillo hit .313/.351/.374 in 411 PAs between the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2016.
- The Blue Jays have signed right-hander Felipe Castenada and shortstop Shane Opitz to minor league contracts. Opitz has been with the Toronto organization since it chose him in the 11th round of the 2010 draft. He primarily played with Double-A New Hampshire in 2016 and batted .217/.280/.300 in 258 PAs.
- The Indians have re-signed righty reliever Enosil Tejada to a minor league accord. Tejada, 27, didn’t pitch at all in 2016, but he amassed impressive numbers with the organization from 2010-15 (1.94 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 in 296 1/3 minor league innings).
Cafardo’s Latest: CBA, BoSox, Bautista, Votto, Tigers, Yanks, Hoyer
The absence of a new collective bargaining agreement has representatives for top free agents like Yoenis Cespedes and Edwin Encarnacion concerned, and could lead to delays in signing, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The current CBA, set to expire Dec. 1, includes a $189MM luxury tax threshold. Big-spending teams that are near the $189MM figure could hold off on adding high-end free agents (Cespedes and Encarnacion, to name a couple) until the CBA situation is resolved because they might face penalties under the next agreement if the luxury tax number doesn’t increase. One club it will affect is the Red Sox, according to Cafardo, who expects them to pursue Encarnacion if the threshold rises. Otherwise, they’re likely settle for a less expensive bat like Carlos Beltran.
More from Cafardo:
- Free agent outfielder/designated hitter Jose Bautista “loves” both Boston and Fenway Park, making the Red Sox a potential fit for the longtime Blue Jay, per Cafardo. Further, Bautista has fans in Red Sox manager John Farrell and third base coach Brian Butterfield, both of whom were previously in Toronto. If the 36-year-old doesn’t end up rejoining them in Boston, the Rangers, Astros, Orioles, Cardinals, Giants and Braves are also possibilities (the DH-less National League doesn’t seem ideal, though). First things first, Bautista will have to reject Toronto’s qualifying offer by Monday – which seems like a formality.
- Reds first baseman Joey Votto could waive his no-trade clause if his hometown team – the Blue Jays – attempts to acquire him, Cafardo suggests, but he adds that a deal is unlikely. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier this week that the Reds have “no intention” of trading Votto, who is owed $179MM over the next seven seasons.“We’ve traded away a lot of players we’ve drafted and developed. He’s one of the few that remains,” said GM Dick Williams. “There’s a sentimental connection with fans no doubt. But it doesn’t have anything to do with attendance and draw. It’s about performance. He delivers.” The 33-year-old Votto did indeed deliver in 2016, slashing a remarkable .326/.434/.550 with 29 home runs in 677 plate appearances.
- The Tigers’ plan to get younger and cut payroll is “probably going to be a three-year process,” general manager Al Avila told Cafardo. Avila revealed that he isn’t worried about the luxury tax, saying, “I don’t know what [the luxury tax threshold is] going to be. We’re going to make this change in our business philosophy. We were just trying to get younger and whatever that ends up being, it ends up being. The market will decide what will happen.” The Tigers are reportedly willing to discuss trades involving some of their biggest names, including first baseman Miguel Cabrera, ace Justin Verlander and second baseman Ian Kinsler, and Avila has made it clear that he’s “open-minded in listening.”
- Yankees left fielder Brett Gardner is a good bet to draw trade interest, reports Cafardo. He’s coming off a 2.4-fWAR season, his fourth consecutive campaign with at least that total. Depending on what happens with his 2019 club option, the 33-year-old Gardner will collect either $25MM or $35.5MM over the next three seasons.
- Having signed a five-year extension in September, Cubs GM Jed Hoyer is clearly content as a prominent member of the World Series champions’ front office. However, president Theo Epstein’s second-in-command would like autonomy over a baseball department someday. “At some point I would relish [being in charge] again. I aspire to that,” Hoyer said. “But I’m in no hurry. I’ve had opportunities to have that role and I turned them down to stay in Chicago.” Hoyer was previously with the Padres as their GM from 2009-11, but he left San Diego to reunite with Epstein, his former Boston colleague.
Giants Sign Jose Dominguez To Minor League Deal
The Giants have signed righty reliever Jose Dominguez to a minor league deal, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy tweets. Dominguez split his time between the Padres’ bullpen and that of Triple-A El Paso in 2016, posting a 5.05 ERA, 5.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 35 2/3 innings in the big leagues. He also struggled with his control at El Paso, with 25 walks in 35 2/3 innings there. He previously pitched for the Dodgers and Rays, heading from Los Angeles to Tampa Bay in the deal two years ago that sent Adam Liberatore and Joel Peralta to the Dodgers.
Despite his underwhelming numbers in 2016, the 26-year-old Dominguez will surely continue to get chances, since he throws extremely hard (reaching into the upper 90s with his fastball) and has a 90-MPH slider. He’ll provide the Giants with what would appear to be significant upside should he solve his control issues, although his chances of doing so are probably limited.
NL West Notes: D-Backs, Giants Pen, Kendrick, Dodgers, Holliday, Pads
The Diamondbacks expect to enter 2017 with approximately the same payroll level that they carried last year, GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link). With about $60MM in obligations and another $30MM or so in projected arbitration salaries, it wouldn’t appear that Arizona will have a lot of free cash to work with this winter after opening 2016 with just under $100MM on the books. While it’s always possible that trades could shift things around, indications from the front office are that players such as Zack Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt, and Yasmany Tomas aren’t likely to be moved. All said, then, the odds appear to favor a fairly quiet approach to the free agent market from the D-Backs.
Here’s more from the NL West:
- The Giants feel confident they will land one of the three major closers available in free agency this winter, a club official told Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). We’ve already heard the team linked to Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon (who they met with today), though as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, the organization is considering alternatives as well. GM Bobby Evans called rehabbing righty Greg Holland a “very good option,” and there are always trade routes to consider. But the expectation has long been that San Francisco would go shopping on the open market to address the ninth inning, and the club seems a strong favorite to land one of those premium arms.
- Meanwhile, it’s rather unlikely that the Giants will make a splash at third base, Shea further reports. Evans left little doubt as to how the club sees things after already acquiring Eduardo Nunez over the summer. “You try to stay nimble and flexible,” Evans said. “If something comes along, you can always adjust. We’re very comfortable with Nuñez. He’s our third baseman.”
- Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi addressed his club’s decision today to ship Howie Kendrick to the Phillies, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports. “Financial flexibility” was a motivating factor, he said, and the organization also liked the idea of adding Darin Ruf — who Zaidi said was pursued over the summer. Addressing second base, which Kendrick could conceivably have played, Zaidi noted that the Dodgers could go with players already on hand — Enrique Hernandez, Micah Johnson, and Chris Taylor — but added that there’s ample time “to bring in a more experienced player.” Free agent Chase Utley still seems an option, though Zaidi did not discuss him specifically, and there are certainly a variety of interesting trade candidates that might be considered. Kendrick had occupied left field in 2016 for Los Angeles, and his departure leaves an opening there, but Zaidi said that’s “not a position we are targeting right now.” He expressed confidence in existing players such as Andre Ethier, Andrew Toles, Trayce Thompson and Scott Van Slyke in the corner outfield. Of course, right field is also up for grabs, though the team could yet rely on Yasiel Puig along with those other options.
- The idea of the Rockies bringing back Matt Holliday may not be an unreasonable one, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. The veteran slugger has expressed interest in the concept, and Saunders notes that Holliday could see time both at first and in the outfield — which currently features three left-handed hitters.
- The Padres will look to make a few targeted veteran additions this winter, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune recently explored. GM A.J. Preller spoke of finding one or two “guys who have good makeup, guys who are in it for the team, guys who are willing to work, guys who aren’t selfish.” That could be outfielder Jon Jay, who the team is still interested in. Preller spoke highly of the versatile outfielder, but noted that preserving opportunities for a variety of younger players ill be a consideration “as we’re talking to Jon and determining an offer, the term and length.” Shortstop is perhaps a greater priority, with Preller noting that it’s “still an area we’re looking to address.” The team still isn’t sure whether Luis Sardinas is prepared to be an everyday player, Preller suggested. Jose Rondon will also receive consideration, but the organization certainly seems open to pursuing alternatives via trade or free agency.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/10/16
Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league…
- The Giants have agreed to a minor league deal with first baseman/outfielder Chris Marrero, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). The 28-year-old is a former first-round pick (Nationals, 2006) that spent the 2016 campaign with Boston’s Triple-A affiliate and hit quite well, slashing .284/.344/.494 with 23 homers and 30 doubles in 544 plate appearances. Marrero appeared in the Majors with the Nats back in 2011 and 2013 but batted a disappointing .232/.256/.272 in 133 PAs across those two stints. He’s a consistently solid bat in the minors though and could provide San Francisco with some depth both at first base and in left field.
- The Mariners announced yesterday that catcher Steven Baron has been released following last week’s DFA. The No. 33 overall pick in the 2009 draft, Baron has just 11 big league plate appearances under his belt but has hit for respectable average and gotten on base at a solid clip in the upper minors. He’ll turn 26 next month and could serve as a depth piece for clubs that are seeking a relatively young catcher to pick up some playing time in Triple-A next year.
- The Orioles announced that left-hander Jed Bradley has been outrighted off their 40-man roster yesterday. Baltimore claimed the former first-round pick and top prospect off waivers from the Braves last month, though his stay on the 40-man roster didn’t last long. Bradley made his Major League debut with Atlanta this season, yielding four runs on seven hits and six walks (two intentional) with four strikeouts in seven innings. He also posted a 3.09 earned run average with 108 strikeouts against 40 walks in 107 2/3 innings between the rotation and bullpen at Triple-A this year (13 starts, 22 relief appearances).
- Outfielder Noel Cuevas has re-signed a minor league deal with the Rockies, the team announced. Cuevas, who turned 25 a month ago, began his pro career with the Dodgers but has spent the past two seasons in the Rockies organization and enjoyed one of his most productive minor league seasons to date in 2016. Splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A — his first action at the Triple-A level — the Puerto Rican center fielder hit .296/.331/.414 across 360 plate appearances.
Reliever Notes: Chapman, Jansen, Melancon, Giants, Holland, Marlins
The Giants met this week with representatives of top free agent relievers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter) and Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link) report. Finding a solution for the ninth inning is perhaps the top priority for Giants GM Bobby Evans, so it’s not surprising to hear that he’s looking into the three best options on the open market. It’s far from clear at this point whether the Giants are particularly interested in any of these pitchers. It will certainly be interesting to see the strategic approaches of the players and teams in the market for premium closers. There are plenty of suitors circling, but they’ll surely be somewhat cautious in doling out potentially record-setting contracts.
- We took a look yesterday at the latest on Greg Holland, who’s a risky but intriguing alternative to the three major options just noted, but there’s more ground to cover today. The Cubs are among many organizations that have real interest in Holland, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. They certainly aren’t alone, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports that clubs including the Rays, Indians, and Mariners — in addition to the many others who were reportedly on hand for his recent showcase — could still be involved.
- While the Marlins‘ priority is in the rotation, the club may consider bolstering its relief corps as an alternative, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. President of baseball operations Michael Hill suggests that the team will allow the market to “dictate[] the direction” that’s ultimately taken, at least to some extent, and that the Fish will explore all free agent and trade possibilities. But if the price for a worthwhile rotation addition proves too steep, the organization may perhaps pivot a bit. “You see the trends now, and the analytics, and they may say you don’t want to face guys a third time through the lineup,” Hill said. “It puts more of an emphasis to have a stronger bullpen. A lot of our success this year was because of our strong bullpen.” Frisaro notes that the Marlins have long been interested in Chapman, though it would seemingly be a big surprise were the club to enter his market in earnest.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/9/16
Time to catch up on some recent 40-man roster moves:
- The Brewers outrighted righties Yhonathan Barrios and Ben Rowen as well as catcher Josmil Pinto, per MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert and Adam McCalvy. Barrios cracked the bigs briefly in 2015 but missed all of 2016 with shoulder issues. The 27-year-old Rowen has minimal major league experience, but did put up a strong 2.33 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 58 minor league frames last year. As for Pinto, who’s also 27, he’s still waiting for another shot at the majors. His .308/.362/.517 batting line over 315 plate appearances could warrant interest.
- Recently-claimed lefty Jed Bradley has been shipped to Triple-A and off of the Orioles‘ 40-man, the team announced. Plucked from the Braves, where he briefly debuted last year, Bradley will be a useful stashed arm if a need arises.
- The Indians announce that catcher Adam Moore was outrighted. He has one of the more interesting Baseball-Reference pages you’ll ever see. Since receiving significant time in 2010 with the Mariners, he has bounced around quite a bit but managed to appear in the majors in every seasons since. Yet Moore has accumulated just fifty total MLB plate appearances in that six-year span. He’ll surely land as a depth piece somewhere, if he doesn’t return to Cleveland.
- Righty Dustin Molleken elected free agency after being outrighted by the Tigers. The 32-year-old finally reached the majors in 2016, allowing four earned runs on 12 hits and five walks against eight strikeouts over his 8 1/3 innings. Otherwise, he has spent the last five years pitching in Japan or the highest level of the minors.
- The Twins outrighted right-hander Alex Wimmers, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press tweets. Wimmers threw his first 17 1/3 major league innings last year, putting up a 4.15 ERA with 14 strikeouts and 11 walks. In his 56 2/3 Triple-A frames on the year, he worked to a 3.97 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9.
- The Dodgers dropped righty Chin-hui Tsao from their 40-man roster, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick tweets. Now 35, Tsao has made just seven appearances over the last two seasons. All of his prior major league action came between 2003 and 2007.
- Catcher A.J. Jimenez had his contract selected by the Blue Jays, per a club announcement. He had been removed from the 40-man last spring, but will now be added to prevent him from departing as a minor league free agent. Jimenez has been in Toronto’s system since 2008, but has yet to reach the majors. he posted a .241/.290/.377 batting line over 248 plate appearances at Triple-A last year.
- The Giants added righty Ian Gardeck to their 40-man roster, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. He missed all of last year due to Tommy John surgery. Gardeck’s most recent showing came at the High-A level in 2015, when he pitched to a 3.54 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 86 1/3 innings.
Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
It turns out an even year had nothing to do with the Giants winning a World Championship. The secret formula all along had been a combination of great starting pitching, timely hitting and a reliable bullpen. While they did win 87 games and clinch a Wild Card berth before losing to the Cubs in the NLDS, it was clear that the “reliable bullpen” portion was a missing ingredient in 2016.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Buster Posey, C: $110MM through 2021. Contract includes a $22MM club option in 2022 with a $3MM buyout.
- Johnny Cueto, SP: $115MM through 2021. Cueto can opt out after the 2017 World Series. Contract includes a $22MM club option in 2022 with a $5MM buyout.
- Brandon Belt, 1B: $72.8MM through 2021.
- Brandon Crawford, SS: $69MM through 2021.
- Jeff Samardzija, SP: $79.2MM through 2020.
- Hunter Pence, OF: $37MM through 2018.
- Denard Span, OF: $28MM through 2018. Contract includes a $12MM mutual option in 2019 with a $4MM buyout.
- Matt Cain, SP: $28.1MM through 2017. Contract includes a $21MM club option in 2018 with a $7.5MM buyout.
- Madison Bumgarner, SP: $13MM through 2017. Contract includes a $12MM club option in 2018 with a $1.5MM buyout and a $12MM club option in 2019.
- Matt Moore, SP: $8.75MM through 2017. Contract includes a $9MM club option in 2018 with a $1MM buyout and a $10MM club option in 2019 with a $750K buyout.
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)
- Eduardo Nuñez, IF/OF (5.090) – $4.4MM
- Conor Gillaspie, 3B (4.028) – $900K
- George Kontos, RP (3.171) – $1.7MM
- Will Smith, RP (3.155) – $2.3MM
- Cory Gearrin, RP (3.136) -$1.1MM
- Ehire Adrianza, INF (2.131) – $513K
- Non-tender candidates: Gearrin
Free Agents
San Francisco Giants Depth Chart; San Francisco Giants Payroll Information
The Giants’ offseason needs are pretty obvious. Closer is priority number one. Left field, although not nearly as urgent, would be the other void that general manager Bobby Evans will likely fill this offseason. Other than that, they’re still in very good shape.
Future Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy is entering his 23rd season as a Major League manager—2017 will be his 11th season with the Giants—and closing in on 1800 regular season victories to go along with his three World Series titles and four National League Championships. He’ll lead a group of talented players with a ton of playoff experience and still in the prime of their career.
The starting rotation remains the strength of their roster. Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto might form the best 1-2 punch in baseball. Jeff Samardzija gave the team over 200 quality innings in year one of his five-year, $90MM contract. Matt Moore was very good after he was acquired on August 1st, especially when it counted the most. The 27-year-old lefty was dominant over his last three starts (23.2 IP, 3 ER, 11 H, 4 BB, 27 K), including Game Four of the NLDS.
Matt Cain should get the first shot at filling the No. 5 spot in the rotation, mostly because he’s making close to $21MM in 2017. The three-time All-Star, who averaged 32 starts from 2006-2013, has been on the disabled list more often than not over the past three seasons. When healthy enough to take the mound, he’s nowhere near as effective as he once was. While the walk and strikeout rates haven’t changed much, his WHIP and ERA have skyrocketed. It’s unclear how much the injuries have to do with his decline and whether he can bounce back at age 32. Fortunately, the Giants have plenty of depth and several young candidates who could step in if necessary.
Chris Heston, who missed most of 2016 with an oblique injury after an impressive rookie season, could be Cain’s top competitor. Clayton Blackburn, Ty Blach and Chris Stratton have nothing left to prove at the Triple-A level and figure to get a long look in Spring Training. None of the three, as is the case with Heston, has more than mid-rotation potential, but won’t be asked to be more than a No. 5 in the Giants’ rotation.
Top pitching prospect Tyler Beede, the 14th pick in the 2014 draft, could also force himself into the picture after posting a 2.81 ERA with 3.2 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 24 Double-A starts in 2016. Former Marlins ace Josh Johnson, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2013 because of injuries and will turn 33 in January, will also be in MLB camp.
Despite the struggles of the bullpen in 2016, the group of pitchers expected to bridge the gap to the yet-to-be-acquired closer can be quite good. Lefty Will Smith, another August 1st trade acquisition, is one of the top lefty setup men in the league, though he wasn’t necessarily treated that way upon arriving in San Francisco. Fellow lefty Steven Okert has the potential to be one of the best rookie relievers in 2017. Derek Law and Hunter Strickland, while not able to step in and solidify the closer role once Santiago Casilla floundered late in 2016, were still very good overall and should be more than adequate in late-inning setup roles. George Kontos has a 2.49 ERA in 154 relief appearances over the past three seasons and the versatile Albert Suarez should also contribute.
With three of the best closers in baseball available on the free agent market, the Giants are expected to pounce on one as quickly as possible. However, they’ll have to outbid several teams that also have a need at the closer position. The Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Nationals and Yankees could all make aggressive bids for Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon. Even if the closer market is limited to those six teams — which is no sure thing with other organizations possibly looking to bolster their pens –three of them will be left to choose between Greg Holland, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, and a long list of much less appealing former closers, including Jonathan Papelbon, Fernando Rodney and Koji Uehara. Jeremy Jeffress, who was an effective closer for the Brewers before a mid-season trade to the Rangers, is a potential trade candidate. The Orioles and Royals could also shop their respective closers, Zach Britton and Wade Davis, albeit with lofty price tags that would likely scare off any suitors that weren’t absolutely desperate.
The 2017 Opening Day lineup will look a lot like the 2016 version—Denard Span, Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik are all penciled into starting spots once again—aside from a new third baseman and, unless Pagan is re-signed, a new left fielder.
Late-season hero Conor Gillaspie, who went 7-for-14 with a homer and two doubles in his last five regular season games and 8-for-19 in the post-season, including a game-winning homer in the Giants’ Wild Card game victory, probably did enough to put him in the mix at third base in 2017. Eduardo Nuñez, an All-Star in 2016 before he was acquired from the Twins in late July, could prove to be the better option, though. Regardless of whether he wins the starting job at third base, his speed (40 SB), power (16 HR) and versatility (he can play 2B, 3B, SS, LF and RF) will ensure he’s in the lineup on a regular basis.
A platoon in left field with Jarrett Parker (.942 OPS in 151 career plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers) and either Gorkys Hernandez or Mac Williamson isn’t out of the question, but there are several proven options on the free agent market that the Giants could sign.
If the Giants are willing to pay top dollar and significantly increase their payroll, Yoenis Cespedes could be on their radar. The cost of finding a good closer likely decreases those chances, though, which would make Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler and Josh Reddick more likely targets. If the plan is to not increase their payroll significantly, Jon Jay or Matt Joyce could be more cost-efficient options, as would bringing back free agent Angel Pagan. The trade market should also present some options with Jorge Soler one of the notable players expected to be shopped.
Keeping this veteran core of talent together isn’t cheap. Even with the salaries of Casilla, Javier Lopez, Jake Peavy, Sergio Romo and Pagan coming off the books, the Giants are projected to be very close to the 2016 payroll total before making a move. My current projection has them around $170MM, the fifth highest total in baseball. Signing one of the top free agents this offseason would require either a payroll increase, creative contract structuring or a trade. If Evans can make it happen, though, the Giants will enter the 2017 season with one of the most talented and well-balanced rosters in the league.
Free Agent Rumors: Hill, Dodgers, Napoli, Logan, Braves, Hwang
There’s a flurry of offseason rumors flying about Twitter in the early stages of free agency and with the General Managers Meetings taking place in Arizona at the moment. Much of the talk is preliminary at this juncture, and many of the names connected to teams in the early-going won’t ultimately be targets in the long run. That said, the GM Meetings can certainly provide a forum to lay the groundwork for future free-agent deals and trades, and we even see the occasional big-name signing there (as was the case with Victor Martinez re-signing with the Tigers prior to the 2015 season). Here’s a rundown of all the latest free-agent chatter…
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters that he plans to reach out to the representatives for free agent left-hander Rich Hill (Twitter link via NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty). Cashman stressed that he’s planning to meet with the reps for a large number of free agents, but the Yankees have been an oft-speculated landing spot for Hill, who seems likely to cash in on a significant free agent deal this winter less than 18 months removed from a stint pitching for the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League. MLBTR ranked Hill 14th among free agents and pegged him for a three-year, $50MM deal.
- The Dodgers will also be in the mix for Hill, tweets Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times, and they’re having dialogue with his representatives as well as those for free agents Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner. The Dodgers already made qualifying offers to both Jansen and Turner, though it’s a no-brainer for each to reject in search of a more lucrative deal. It’d be somewhat of a surprise if the Dodgers let all three of their big-name free agents sign elsewhere this winter, although re-signing all three doesn’t seem to be an especially likely outcome, either.
- Mike Napoli is drawing early interest from the Mariners, tweets Jon Morosi of the MLB Network. As Morosi points out, Napoli has a good history with Seattle manager Scott Servais dating back to his Rangers days. Napoli would be a logical fit for the M’s, who project to have the unproven Dan Vogelbach as their starting first baseman next year. However, the possibility of an eventual timeshare situation developing between the two may not be palatable from Napoli’s vantage point, I wouldn’t think. And it would seem strange for the Mariners to part with a controllable lefty like Mike Montgomery to acquire Vogelbach only to block him a few months later by giving Napoli the everyday first base gig.
- Morosi also tweets that left-hander Boone Logan is generating some early interest, and FanRag’s Jon Heyman hears the same. Morosi notes that the Blue Jays and Giants both had interest in Logan at the non-waiver trade deadline this summer, though the Rockies elected not to trade him. Toronto, in particular, could probably use some left-handed relief help, as it was an area of weakness for them for much of the 2016 and they now stand to lose Brett Cecil to the open market. The 32-year-old Logan is probably best deployed as a lefty specialist, which may limit his market a bit, but he excels in that area. Logan held lefties to a putrid .142/.222/.255 slash in 2016 and a .225/.349/.254 slash in 2015.
- MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes that if the Braves are to sign a new catcher this winter, the likeliest targets are Jason Castro and Nick Hundley. Bowman tabs Wilson Ramos as a long shot and says he’d only land in Atlanta if his asking price declined significantly. Also per Bowman, Atlanta has never seemed all that interested in pursuing former Georgia Tech star Matt Wieters. Castro would give the Braves another strong defender and a left-handed bat to complement the right-handed bat of Tyler Flowers. Hundley, meanwhile, would be more of an offensive-minded backstop for the Braves.
- Korean third-baseman Jae-gyun Hwang will host a showcase for interested teams in Florida on Nov. 21, tweets Morosi. The 29-year-old didn’t draw a bid when posted last offseason but delivered another very strong season in the KBO this year. Hwang hit a career-best 27 homers and posted a .335/.394/.570 line with dramatically improved K/BB numbers in 2016 and could be a relatively low-cost option at the hot corner this winter.