Every Team’s Initial September Callups
The limit on active roster players expanded from 26 to 28 today, as the calendar flipped to September. Every team announced at least two additions to the big league club (some teams made three or more due to injured list placements). Here’s a recap of today’s spate of transactions:
- Angels: RHP Oliver Ortega (full post), INF Luis Rengifo. LHP Patrick Sandoval transferred to 60-day IL
- Astros: RHP Jose Urquidy (activated from 10-day IL), RHP Enoli Paredes
- Athletics: DH Khris Davis, C Austin Allen (full post)
- Blue Jays: RHP Nate Pearson, RHP Bryan Baker (full post)
- Braves: IF Orlando Arcia, RHP Jacob Webb
- Brewers: C Luke Maile, RHP Justin Topa, 1B Daniel Vogelbach (activated from 60-day IL). C Manny Pina placed on 10-day IL, LHP Angel Perdomo transferred to 60-day IL
- Cardinals: RHP Brandon Dickson (full post), C Ali Sanchez. RHP Ryan Helsley transferred to 60-day IL
- Cubs: RHP Adbert Alzolay (activated from 10-day IL), Dillon Maples (activated from 10-day IL)
- Diamondbacks: RHP Luke Weaver (activated from 60-day IL), OF Stuart Fairchild
- Dodgers: UTIL Zach McKinstry, RHP Ryan Meisinger. IF Sheldon Neuse, OF Luke Raley transferred to 60-day IL
- Giants: LHP Caleb Baragar, IF Thairo Estrada, RHP John Brebbia. RHP Johnny Cueto placed on 10-day IL
- Indians: RHP Triston McKenzie (activated from 10-day IL), OF Harold Ramirez (activated from 10-day IL)
- Mariners: LHP Justus Sheffield (activated from 10-day IL), IF Kevin Padlo
- Marlins: LHP Trevor Rogers (activated from restricted list), IF Joe Panik (activated from COVID-19)
- Mets: OF Albert Almora Jr., OF Khalil Lee
- Nationals: LHP Alberto Baldonado (full post), C Alex Avila (activated from 10-day IL)
- Orioles: RHP Dusten Knight, LHP Alexander Wells
- Padres: RHP Dinelson Lamet (activated from 10-day IL), RHP Taylor Williams (activated from 60-day IL). LHP Matt Strahm transferred to 60-day IL
- Phillies: RHP Cam Bedrosian, RHP Ramon Rosso (full post). 1B Rhys Hoskins transferred to 60-day IL, shortstop Didi Gregorius placed on restricted list
- Pirates: RHP Shelby Miller (full post), RHP Max Kranick
- Rangers: LHP Hyeon-jong Yang, IF Charlie Culberson (activated from COVID-19 IL), RHP Kohei Arihara (activated from 60-day IL). INF Ryan Dorow — originally selected as a COVID replacement — removed from 40-man roster and returned to Triple-A
- Rays: RHP David Robertson (full post), SS Taylor Walls
- Red Sox: RHP John Schreiber (full post), INF Jack Lopez, UTIL Danny Santana (activated from 10-day IL), RHP Ryan Brasier (activated from 60-day IL). SS Xander Bogaerts, IF Yairo Munoz placed on COVID-19 IL
- Reds: OF Delino DeShields Jr. (full post), INF Alejo Lopez
- Rockies: RHPs Antonio Santos, Justin Lawrence, Julian Fernandez (full post). Jon Gray placed on injured list
- Royals: RHP Jackson Kowar, SS Adalberto Mondesi (activated from 10-day IL), LHP Jake Brentz (activated from 10-day IL). RHP Jakob Junis placed on 10-day IL
- Tigers: RHP Wily Peralta (activated from 10-day IL), INF Niko Goodrum (activated from 10-day IL)
- Twins: RHP Randy Dobnak (activated from 60-day IL), RHP Joe Ryan (full post). RHP Kenta Maeda transferred to 60-day injured list
- White Sox: RHP Matt Foster, 1B/OF Gavin Sheets, INF/OF Romy Gonzalez (full post). Jake Lamb designated for assignment (full post), Tim Anderson placed on injured list
- Yankees: OF Estevan Florial, RHP Brooks Kriske
Mariners Extend Jerry Dipoto, Scott Servais
The Mariners announced Wednesday that they’ve promoted general manager Jerry Dipoto to president of baseball operations and signed him to a multi-year contract extension. The club has also announced a multi-year extension for manager Scott Servais. The length of the contracts were not specified.
“Jerry is a creative, passionate leader with a clear vision for our franchise,” managing partner John Stanton said in today’s press release. “Following the 2018 season, Jerry came to us with a plan for how to compete for and win championships. He was transparent on the difficulty, but also clear on the goals and milestones. In the two-and-a-half years since, he has led the baseball operations group through challenges on and off the field, while executing on the timeline he laid out.”
Stanton points out that the Mariners’ 91-76 record since the midpoint of last season ranks sixth in baseball, praises the “first-class operations and analytics team” built by Dipoto, and expresses pride in a farm system that recently topped Baseball America’s midseason rankings. The Mariners are also just three and a half games back in the American League Wild Card race, outperforming broad expectations in what most expected to be another rebuilding season.
The 2021 campaign is Dipoto’s sixth full season with the Mariners, who hired him as general manager on Sept. 28, 2015. He’d previously served as interim general manager of the Diamondbacks and spent nearly five seasons as general manager of the Angels before leaving the organization after a public rift with manager Mike Scioscia. Dipoto then served as a special assistant in the Red Sox’ front office before being tabbed as Seattle’s new head of baseball operations.
Mariners ownership brought Dipoto aboard in the midst of a win-now push. At the time, Dipoto was stepping into an organization that had a bloated long-term payroll and one of the game’s worst-ranked farm systems. Seattle posted winning records in two of Dipoto’s first three seasons (2016 and 2018) but did not reach the playoffs. With several aging veterans and little help on the immediate horizon, Dipoto set out to “reimagine” the Mariners’ roster and farm system following an 89-win 2018 season.
Over the next two seasons, he traded away the likes of Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, James Paxton, Jean Segura, Austin Nola and many others as he sought to replenish the minor league system and bring about a youth movement. His efforts continued all the way through the current deadline, when Dipoto somewhat controversially traded closer Kendall Graveman to his chief division rival for five years of control over young infielder Abraham Toro. (Toro hit a grand slam off Graveman last night.)
That youth movement has begun to arrive in Seattle, led by names such as Toro, Ty France, J.P. Crawford, Luis Torrens and others. Some of Dipoto’s early acquisitions, such as Mitch Haniger and Marco Gonzales, have become mainstays on the roster and played key roles in the team’s emergence. Free-agent additions such as Chris Flexen and Yusei Kikuchi have been vital to the team’s 2021 rotation.
A new multi-year extension gives Dipoto the opportunity to see a rebuild he initially pushed for all the way through to its culmination. While the Mariners have begun to see some of the fruits of those rebuilding efforts, the club hopes there’s more on the horizon not just via the young big leaguers who’ve struggled (e.g. Jarred Kelenic) but also the numerous top prospects still on the farm. Outfielder Julio Rodriguez, right-handers Emerson Hancock and George Kirby and infielder Noelvi Marte, among others, could all reach the Majors by 2023 — many of them as soon as next season.
The rebuilding effort has also left Seattle with a squeaky-clean payroll outlook. The Mariners have just $19MM committed to next year’s payroll (before arbitration raises and decisions on options for Kyle Seager and Kikuchi). They’ll take that minimal level of financial commitment to a free-agent market that is deeper in talent than any we’ve seen in recent memory and look to augment the young core with some veterans to take the team to a new level in 2022 and beyond.
The sheer volume of trades made by Dipoto, who has more than earned his “Trader Jerry” nickname since taking the reins in Seattle, opens him up to some criticism and has created his share of detractors. However, it’s tough to argue that the team’s farm system, payroll outlook and current big league roster paint anything other than a bright future that is largely because of its current baseball operations leader’s doing.
Servais, like Dipoto, is in his sixth season with the Mariners. He’d worked as an assistant general manager in the Angels front office during Dipoto’s time as GM there, setting up a strong foundation for the two to build upon in Seattle.
“Scott has done a terrific job in defining our team’s culture as one that is driven by process, hard work and heart,” Dipoto said in a press release announcing Servais’ new contract. “That has allowed us to bring young, talented players to the Majors over the past three years and see them adjust and succeed as we build towards a team that competes for championships on an annual basis. The resiliency our club has shown in overcoming challenges on, and off, the field over the past two years have been a direct result of Scott’s leadership of the team and coaching staff.”
The Mariners are the only club Servais has ever managed, and through his six seasons he holds a 419-422 record. That’s skewed largely by a 68-94 record in 2019 — the first season of the club’s rebuild. Servais has a pair of winning seasons on his record and ought to add a third to the ledger in 2021, barring a seismic September collapse.
The larger question isn’t whether the Mariners will finish the current season with a winning record but rather whether they’ll be able to close a 3.5-game Wild Card deficit, thereby snapping a two-decade playoff drought. Even if a return to the postseason doesn’t happen in 2021, it would surely be viewed as a disappointment among fans, the players, the front office and ownership if a return to the playoffs doesn’t come to fruition over the life of these new contracts for Dipoto and Servais. Their ability to push this club from a young, up-and-coming club on the rise to bona fide postseason contenders will determine whether future extensions are in order.
Mariners Designate Jimmy Yacabonis For Assignment
The Mariners announced Monday that they’ve designated right-hander Jimmy Yacabonis for assignment. His spot on the active roster goes to first baseman/outfielder Jose Marmolejos, who has been selected from Triple-A Tacoma.
Yacabonis, 29, hasn’t pitched in the Majors with Seattle this season and only tossed 2 1/3 innings with them last year after coming over in a cash deal with the Padres. He opted for free agency last winter after the Mariners removed him from the roster but ultimately returned to Seattle on a minor league pact. The Mariners selected him to the Major League roster just this weekend, but he didn’t appear in a game prior to being designated.
It’s been a strong season for Yacabonis down in Triple-A, where he’s logged 31 1/3 innings of 1.72 ERA ball with a 23 percent strikeout rate, a 7.1 percent walk rate and a 45.9 percent ground-ball rate. Opponents have batted just .205/.282/.286 against him through 124 plate appearances so far in 2021.
It’s a continuation of a strong Triple-A track record for Yacabonis, who carries a career 2.94 ERA in 192 2/3 innings at that level. He’s had a much tougher go in the Majors, with a 5.71 ERA through 104 frames — nearly all of which have come with the Orioles. Yacabonis hasn’t gotten much of a look with another club in the Majors to date, but it’s possible that with rosters set to expand, his strong work down in Tacoma will earn him a look with another organization once he’s placed on waivers. He’s out of minor league options, so if he does land elsewhere, his new club will have to carry him on the MLB roster or else again expose him to waivers before sending him down.
Marmolejos, 28, was outrighted off the 40-man roster earlier this season after batting .139/.266/.278 in 94 plate appearances. He’s had an absolutely mammoth season down in Tacoma, however, hitting .260/.452/.700 with 23 long balls, 13 doubles and three triples in 303 plate appearances. He’s played himself back onto the 40-man roster with that huge showing and will now have another opportunity to show whether he can carry some of that production over to the big leagues in the season’s final five weeks.
Mariners Place Jake Fraley, Anthony Misiewicz On 10-Day Injured List
The Mariners made a handful of roster moves today. They placed Jake Fraley on the 10-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation. Anthony Misiewicz was also placed on the injured list because of a left forearm strain.
Fraley has made headway this season in making himself a big league outfielder, slashing .213/.359/.388 in 220 plate appearances, making his season thus far worth 1.5 rWAR. Misiewicz, meanwhile, has made 54 appearances covering 46 1/3 innings. He has a 4.08 ERA/3.32 FIP, 24.1 percent strikeout rate, 5.6 percent walk rate, and 44.9 percent groundball rate.
To fill their roster spots, Wyatt Mills was recalled from Triple-A, and Jimmy Yacabonis had his contract selected. To make room on the 40-man roster, Shed Long was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Long went on the injured list on July 30, so he’s very likely done for the year. Keynan Middleton was also outrighted to Triple-A Tacoma.
Yacabonis will make his first appearance in the bigs since last year when he made two appearances with the Mariners. For his career, he owns a 5.71 ERA/6.05 FIP across 104 innings, mostly with the Orioles from 2017 to 2019. The 29-year-old right-hander has been sharp in Triple-A this season, tossing 31 1/3 innings with a 1.74 ERA. He will provide the Mariners with some length out of the bullpen should they need it.
Mariners Release Wyatt Mathisen, Vinny Nittoli
The Mariners have released infielder Wyatt Mathisen and right-hander Vinny Nittoli, per Triple-A director of media relations Paul Braverman (Twitter link). Both had been with the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma, and both were on the 40-man roster earlier this year before eventually being outrighted.
Mathisen, 27, began the 2021 season with the Diamondbacks, for whom he’d made his Major League debut in 2020. He posted just a .159/.298/.290 slash through 84 plate appearances in the Majors between 2020-21, but Mathisen has plenty of defensive versatility, an excellent track record in Triple-A and multiple minor league options remaining. That prompted both the Rays and the Mariners to acquire him in a pair of subsequent trades, each sending cash back the other direction.
Mathisen’s strong Triple-A production continued with the Rays before being designated for assignment and flipped to Seattle. His production at the plate unexpectedly cratered in Triple-A Tacoma, however, as Mathisen has batted just .137/.310/.225 in 129 plate appearances. Even with those struggles, he’s still a career .249/.359/.472 hitter in Triple-A, including a massive .283/.403/.601 showing through 87 games back in 2019. Mathisen has been limited to the infield corners in 2021 but also has experience at second base, at both outfield corners and even 542 innings at catcher (all coming back in 2012-13).
Nittoli, 30, made his big league debut with the Mariners at 30 years old earlier this season but appeared in just one game, allowing a pair of runs. He’d been in his second stint with the organization that originally drafted him in the 25th round back in 2014. In between Mariners stints, he pitched with the Blue Jays and D-backs in addition to stints in the independent American Association and in Mexico. He’d pitched to a 3.50 ERA with a 26-to-5 K/BB ratio through 18 innings at the time of his long-awaited call to the big leagues, but Nittoli has yielded 14 runs in 15 2/3 frames since.
Mariners Claim Sean Doolittle Off Waivers From Reds
The Mariners have claimed veteran reliever Sean Doolittle off waivers from the Reds, per a team announcement. Fellow reliever Keynan Middleton has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move. Doolittle had been designated for assignment earlier this week.
For the bulk of his career, Doolittle has been an elite reliever. After breaking into the big leagues in 2012, he posted an ERA of 3.23 or lower every year through 2018 (excluding a 2015 campaign in which he logged just 13 2/3 innings due to injury). That run of consistency earned him the closer’s role in Oakland, a job he held after being traded to the Nationals in 2017.
Doolittle has fallen on harder times over the past few seasons. While he posted strong strikeout and walk rates in 2019, an increase in home runs allowed pushed his ERA up to 4.05. The southpaw then missed most of last year’s shortened campaign due to knee and oblique issues. Upon reaching free agency, he signed a $1.5MM guarantee with the Reds over the winter.
While he has stayed healthy all year, Doolittle didn’t find enough success to stick in the Cincinnati bullpen over the entire season. His strikeout and walk rates (23.7% and 10.4%, respectively) have dipped to about league average for the first time in his career. And while Doolittle hasn’t been quite as home run prone this season as he was two years back, his 18.2% ground-ball rate is the lowest mark among the 207 relievers with 30+ innings pitched. That made for a tough fit in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Doolittle’s fly-ball heavy ways are easier to manage in Seattle’s more spacious T-Mobile Park. And while Doolittle’s strikeout and walk rates suggest he’s no longer the elite late-innings option he was at his peak, the 34-year-old still looks to be at least an average middle reliever.
Acquiring Doolittle comes with very little risk, as the M’s will simply have to assume the remainder of that modest $1.5MM deal (approximately $295K). For a Seattle club a mere two and a half games back of the final Wild Card spot in the American League, it’s a worthwhile cost to bolster the bullpen depth for the season’s final five weeks. If the Mariners do make the playoffs, Doolittle will be eligible for the postseason roster because he was acquired before August 31.
To make room for Doolittle, the Mariners do run the risk of losing Middleton. A well-regarded relief prospect during his days in the Angels’ system, Middleton broke into the majors with a very promising rookie season in 2017. By early the following year, he had assumed the closing duties in Anaheim.
Unfortunately, Middleton blew out his elbow in May 2018 and required Tommy John surgery. His stuff didn’t look the same upon his return and the Angels non-tendered last winter after he spent most of the 2020 campaign at the alternate training site. Seattle jumped in to add the righty on a one-year, $800K guarantee in free agency.
Middleton has logged significant action for Seattle this season but hasn’t recaptured his peak form. Across 31 frames, he’s managed just a 4.94 ERA with a career-low 17.1% strikeout rate and a lofty 13.6% walk percentage. Middleton has actually induced plenty of swinging strikes (14.2%) but they’ve yet to translate into consistent results.
Seattle will now place Middleton on waivers over the coming days. Another team could take a speculative flier in the hope that Middleton’s swing-and-miss stuff and still strong velocity could lead to stronger production moving forward. Any claiming team could keep him under club control through 2023 via arbitration if he figures things out down the stretch.
Outrighted: Dugger, Hess
A pair of players were passed through outright waivers today:
- The Mariners announced that right-hander Robert Dugger cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Tacoma after being designated for assignment over the weekend. Dugger has the right to reject the assignment as a player who has previously been outrighted in his career. However, he’s listed on the Rainiers’ active roster, suggesting he’s elected to accept the assignment. Dugger has a 7.39 ERA in parts of three big league seasons with the Marlins and Mariners.
- The Rays announced that righty David Hess was passed through outright waivers. Hess has also previously been outrighted, giving him the ability to elect free agency if he’d like. Hess just signed a minor league deal with Tampa Bay last week, though. He was selected to the big league roster without making an appearance with Triple-A Durham and was designated for assignment the following day after not having pitched for the big league club. Hess owns a 6.05 ERA over four big league seasons with the Orioles and Marlins.
Mariners Sign Matt Andriese To Major League Deal
The Mariners announced they’ve signed right-hander Matt Andriese to a major league contract. Robert Dugger has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Andriese signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox over the offseason. He’d spent the entire season as a multi-inning relief option in Boston, tossing 37 1/3 frames over 26 appearances. Andriese started the season well, pitching to a 1.42 ERA with an impressive 11:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 2/3 April innings. Things went south pretty shortly after the calendar flipped to May, though, and Andrise allowed at least one run in seven of his eight appearances leading up to an injured list placement on July 10.
After missing more than six weeks with right hamstring tendinitis, Andriese is seemingly near or ready for a return. He made three rehab appearances with the Sox’s top affiliate in Worcester between August 8 and 14 but was designated for assignment on Tuesday. Boston released him thereafter, but he’s found a new home in relatively short order.
Overall, Andriese pitched to a 6.03 ERA with the Red Sox. His 21.5% strikeout rate is a few points below the league average (24.3%) for relievers, as is his 8.8% swinging strike rate (11.7% league average). Andriese is a better strike-thrower than most bullpen arms, though, and he’s walked just 6.2% of opponents this season. His numbers in Boston were marred by opponents’ .407 batting average on balls in play, and the Mariners will see if more batted balls finding defenders’ gloves can allow Andriese to yet settle in as a decent long relief option for manager Scott Servais.
Dugger will find himself on waivers in the coming days. The right-hander began his career as a Mariners draftee but was shipped to the Marlins in the 2017 Dee Strange-Gordon deal. He reached the big leagues with Miami in 2019 and spent the following season there before Seattle claimed him off waivers this past offseason. The Mariners passed him through outright waivers not long after but re-selected him to the roster in April.
Over the past three years, Dugger has worked 70 2/3 innings of 7.39 ERA ball at the big league level. He’s only punched out 14.4% of opposing hitters in the majors and has been tagged for a 7.30 ERA this year with Triple-A Tacoma. Needless to say, he’s had a rough go of things in 2021, but Dugger posted fantastic numbers up through Double-A and appeared at the back half of Miami’s top 30 prospects lists at Baseball America between 2018-20. Because he’s already been outrighted in his career, Dugger would have the right to elect free agency if he again clears waivers.
Mariners Place Diego Castillo On 10-Day Injured List
The Mariners have placed Diego Castillo on the 10-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation, recalling Robert Dugger from Triple-A to fill his roster spot, per the team.
The acquisition of Castillo from the Rays at the trade deadline was a calculated gamble by GM Jerry Dipoto to gain more long-term security without suffering a drop-off from Kendall Graveman, an impending free agent who was dealt to the Astros. Castillo has more-or-less performed as expected, considering the small sample.
Castillo has one save in 10 outings since joining Seattle, tossing 9 1/3 innings and allowing four earned runs. In total on the year, Castillo has a 2.96 ERA/3.92 FIP in 45 2/3 innings with the Rays and Mariners.
Dugger has bounced back and forth between Tacoma and the bigs this season, his first with the Mariners. The results have been underwhelming at both stops, however. He has a 7.30 ERA in 37 innings in Triple-A and a 6.45 ERA in 22 1/3 innings with the Mariners.
2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates
With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.
As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.
Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.
The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.
With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.
Locks
- Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Clayton Kershaw, Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodón, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story
This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.
Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.
Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.
Likely
- Michael Conforto, Jon Gray, Yusei Kikuchi, Eduardo Rodríguez, Noah Syndergaard, Chris Taylor, Justin Verlander
Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.
The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.
Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.
Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.
Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.
Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.
The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.
Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.
Possible
The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.
San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.
Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.
Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.
Long Shots
The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.
Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.
Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.
Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.
Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.
Opt-Out Clauses
Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.
Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.
Ineligible
- Javier Báez (midseason trade), Kris Bryant (midseason trade), Alex Cobb (previous QO), Nelson Cruz (previous QO/midseason trade), Danny Duffy (midseason trade), Eduardo Escobar (midseason trade), Kevin Gausman (previous QO), Kendall Graveman (midseason trade), Zack Greinke (previous QO), Kenley Jansen (previous QO), Starling Marte (midseason trade), Anthony Rizzo (midseason trade), Max Scherzer (previous QO/midseason trade), Kyle Schwarber (midseason trade), Marcus Stroman (previous QO)