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Will Yusei Kikuchi Choose MLB?

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Yusei Kikuchi may decide this week between Japanese baseball and MLB, according to Bobbie Dittmeier of MLB.com.  As Dittmeier says, the hard-throwing 18-year-old southpaw would "become the first high school player to bypass Japan's draft and sign with a Major League organization."

Dittmeier says the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, Tigers, Braves, Rangers, Mariners and Indians have reportedly scouted Kikuchi.  She passes along a Kyodo News quote from Kikuchi's high school coach indicating the pitcher is 50-50 on his decision.

NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman has covered Kikuchi extensively.  Back in May, Newman explained to MLBTR the differences between Kikuchi and Junichi Tazawa.

Mariners, Felix To Discuss Extension After Season

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The Mariners have agreed to sit down with Felix Hernandez's agent after the season to discuss a multiyear contract extension, according to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times.  Felix's agent, Alan Nero, stressed the lack of urgency since Hernandez is already under team control through 2011.  Nero certainly knows that Hernandez's maximum payday would come from going year-to-year two more times and then putting a 25 year-old ace on the free agent market.

Baker speculates that Hernandez's 2010 salary will shoot into the $10MM range, since it's the pitcher's second arbitration year and he's finishing a breakout season.  Baker notes:

If Hernandez and the Mariners do reach a long-term deal, buying out his final two arbitration years and extending him three to five beyond that, he could become Seattle's first $100MM player.  The Mariners say they want a deal, but have previously implied that Hernandez's camp is reluctant to sign beyond 2011. So far, the two sides have yet to even hammer out parameters for their talks.

If Baker's read is accurate, it means Hernandez is willing to sacrifice financial security and gamble that he'll remain relatively healthy for the next two seasons.  Most promising young starting pitchers have not chosen that route.  If Felix does, his free agent contract may be historic.  C.C. Sabathia owns the record free agent contract for a pitcher: $161MM over seven years, signed in December of last year when Sabathia was 28.

One positive for the Mariners is that Nero also represents Jon Lester, who signed an extension with the Red Sox in March buying out all of his arbitration years and one free agent year while giving a club option on a second. 

As for Hernandez's 2010 salary, I believe the current record for a pitcher in his second arbitration year is Cole Hamels' $6.65MM salary for 2010.  It's an imperfect comparable since Hamels was a Super Two player and that salary comes in the middle of a three-year contract.

Discussion: Felix Hernandez

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There are few young pitchers in the majors today more talented than Seattle ace Felix Hernandez, and the Mariners know it. There has been talk that the team intends to make a strong effort this offseason to sign Hernandez to an extension, but they did listen to trade offers for the right-hander in July. The M's have Hernandez under team control until 2011, when he becomes eligible for free agency for the first time.

The 23-year-old is a Cy Young candidate this season, posting a 2.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 224.1 IP, while striking out nearly a batter per inning. Considering his age, his production to date, and his affordable contract (at least for two more years), it's hard to think of many players whose trade value will be higher this winter.

This brings us to tonight's discussion question: should the Mariners be shopping Felix after the season? They're set to finish in just third place in the AL West this year, but they've made strides after winning only 61 games in 2008. The Angels potentially could lose some of their main contributors (John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Bobby Abreu, Vladimir Guerrero) via free agency, and the Rangers' ownership uncertainty raises questions about their financial flexibility for 2010. Next season could be a prime opportunity for the Mariners to make a playoff run, rather than to deal their best player for rebuilding pieces.

On the other hand, without a couple of new bats in 2010, the Mariners' offense, which this season ranks dead last in the American League in OBP and SLG, won't give Felix and the rest of the staff the support they need to contend. Plus, the haul Seattle could demand in exchange for Hernandez would be massive.

So what should the Mariners' next move be? How much do they offer Hernandez to stay in Seattle? And if he turns down their best offer, do they open the floodgates for trade proposals?

Odds & Ends: Griffey, Harden, Guzman

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Let's have a look at a few evening links….

  • John McGrath of the Tacoma News Tribune notes that the uncertainty regarding Ken Griffey Jr.'s future with the Mariners could make for an uncomfortable PR situation, given Griffey's popularity in Seattle. We've already heard that Griffey would be open to returning and that the Mariners would not reject the idea. McGrath rightly points out though that it would be a mistake to bring the 39-year-old back as the same middle-of-the-order DH he was this year, since he has hit just .214/.323/.395. If the Mariners do retain Griffey, McGrath says it has to be a pinch hitter and part-time player.
  • After earlier reports that the Cubs might not be interested in retaining Rich Harden, we get a follow-up from Keith Law at ESPN.com wondering what type of deal Harden might get. Law compares Harden to Brad Penny, suggesting that, like Penny, the Cubs righty may not be able to secure a multi-year deal because of health concerns.
  • Bill Ladson of MLB.com blogs that Cristian Guzman is still unsure about playing second base for the Nationals in 2010. GM Mike Rizzo and interim manager Jim Riggleman requested the move, feeling that Guzman "no longer has the range to play shortstop."
  • The White Sox should consider keeping Jermaine Dye, according to Matt Meyers of ESPN.com. Although he acknowledges that the outfielder's declining slugging percentage and subpar fielding make for a scary combination, Meyers contends that Dye is a better fit in Chicago than anywhere else, since he could replace the departed Jim Thome as the team's full-time DH. Dye would like to return and Ozzie wants him back too, but the Sox aren't about to pick up the $12MM option just because it's the best fit for Dye.
  • Corey Brock at MLB.com talks to San Diego Padres' GM Kevin Towers about the focus on speed for the Padres. Towers believes there is such a thing as a "PETCO Park player," and that athleticism is a crucial characteristic for playing in the spacious ballpark. Given this approach, it'll be interesting to see who the Padres might target from this offseason's free agent pool.
  • Baseball America's Ben Badler tweets that the Pittsburgh Pirates' win this afternoon once again clinched the No. 1 pick for the Washington Nationals in next June's draft. The Pirates and Baltimore Orioles are still in the mix for No. 2.

Odds & Ends: Astros, Mateo, Aurilia, Rays

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Some more links on this Sunday afternoon…

  • The Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers writes that Tim Bogar and Manny Acta are early front-runners for the Astros managerial job.  Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio could get called in for interviews by general manager Ed Wade.
  • Joe Strauss gives us an overview of the dispute the Cardinals are having with recently signed Dominican outfielder Wagner Mateo.
  • Veteran Rich Aurilia doesn't expect to be a part of the Giants' plans in 2010 according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.
  • Mike Hargrove, who last managed the Seattle Mariners, could land a job this winter, says Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com.
  • Marc Topkin tells us, via Twitter, that Rays' manager Joe Maddon will talk with his coaching staff immediately after the season, but doesn't anticipate any changes. Tampa's playoff hopes plummeted when they dropped 14 of their first 16 games in September.
  • Even at the age of 42, Omar Vizquel would still like to return for another season, according the AP. Can you think of any teams in need of the veterans services? Omar's only logged 189.2 innings at shortstop, but it's no surprise to see a tremendous 21.6 UZR/150.
  • Dejan Kovacevic checks in with the latest and greatest from Pirates' GM Neal Huntington, who once again stresses that the Buccos will not be spending money just to spend money this offseason.

Odds & Ends: Felix, Marte, Closers

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Another handful of links before the night is out….

  • Keith Law of ESPN.com is skeptical about Boston's chances of acquiring Felix Hernandez from the Mariners. Law concedes that the Red Sox could offer Clay Buchholz as the centerpiece, but doesn't think they have the necessary major-league ready hitting prospects to complete a deal.
  • Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes that Andy Marte will meet with Indians GM Mark Shapiro to figure out if Marte has a future in Cleveland. Long considered a top prospect, Marte has yet to enjoy much success at the major league level, and is starting to run out of options.
  • Erik Manning at FanGraphs takes a look at the major bullpen signings of last offseason and how they've played out. Underwhelming performances from Kerry Wood and Brian Fuentes, along with the emergence of low-priced or homegrown arms like David Aardsma and Andrew Bailey may make some teams think twice before investing heavily in a free agent closer this year.
  • Daniel Hudson made the first start of his career tonight for the White Sox, allowing just one earned run in five innings against the Twins. Nonetheless, Scot Gregor of the Daily Herald expects that given Chicago's rotation depth and the 22-year-old's power arm, Hudson will assume a bullpen role for the Sox in 2010.

Perrotto’s Latest: Cubs, White Sox, Chipper, Josh Johnson

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The latest from John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus:

  • The Cubs are trying to sign John Grabow and Reed Johnson before they reach free agency.
  • Perrotto says those that know Chipper Jones believe he would actually retire after next season if he can't perform up to his standards.
  • There's a possibility the Marlins will try to deal Josh Johnson this winter even though he won't be a free agent until after 2011. Johnson is not anticipated to take a hometown discount to stay in Florida.
  • Perrotto expects Russell Branyan will re-sign with the Mariners before he reaches free agency.
  • Seems like pure speculation, but a Jake Peavy for Carlos Zambrano deal this offseason would not surprise some in Chicago.

Cafardo’s Latest: Felix Hernandez, Red Sox

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Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has his Sunday column up. Let's have a look.

  • Cafardo expects the Red Sox to make another push for Felix Hernandez in the offseason. Hernandez's price tag could prove too high for Seattle to retain him; however, they are open to extending him. Before the deadline, the Red Sox reportedly offered a 5-for-1 deal for the ace that Seattle turned down.
  • The Indians have yet to see dividends pay for the players they received for Cliff Lee. Cafardo writes, "Righty Carlos Carrasco is 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA (six homers in 14 innings); catcher Lou Marson is hitting .154; shortstop Jason Donald went on the disabled list in Triple A; and righty Jason Knapp underwent surgery to remove fragments from his shoulder."
  • Cafardo wonders if the Nats would've dealt Cristian Guzman had they known Ian Desmond would emerge as their shortstop of the future.
  • Chiming in on the Jason Bay or Matt Holliday discussion, Cafardo quotes scouts who seem to have him leaning toward Holliday as the better option, particularly for Boston.

Rosenthal On Junior, Twins, Cardinals

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports hears the Mariners will not reject Ken Griffey Jr. if he decides to return next season. Here are the details and the rest of Rosenthal's rumors:

  • Junior will decide whether he wants to return for another season after this one ends.
  • GM Jack Zduriencik says the Mariners will wait to hear from Griffey before proceeding with the rest of their offseason plans.
  • One source tells Rosenthal that the team would bring Griffey back if the 13-time All-Star wants to return. A second source suggests Griffey may be willing to take on a reduced role for a reduced salary.
  • Rosenthal suggests the Twins will need to add a veteran starter this offseason. He mentions Randy Wolf as a possible target for the club.
  • Orlando Cabrera and Joe Crede are free agents, so the team will likely have to re-structure the left side of its infield.
  • Rosenthal wonders how Cardinals pitchers will fare if highly-regarded pitching coach Dave Duncan moves on next year. 

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Zambrano, Johnson, Fielder, Felix, Braves

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On this date 39 years ago, the Mets purchased the contract of Dean Chance from the Indians. At the time, the Mets were 1.5 games back in the NL East. The former Cy Young winner would make only three relief appearances down the stretch and the Mets finished six games back in third place. Chance would subsequently be traded in the off-season and play just one more season. With only two weeks remaining before the start of most team's off-season, let's take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…

  • Goat Riders of the Apocalypse feels the reports that Carlos Zambrano is largely responsible for the Cubs' failures this season are just PR by the Cubs to make it easier to move Zambrano this off-season.
  • Fangraphs makes a case that Nick Johnson's injury history could increase the number of teams that are interested in his services this off-season.
  • Dodgers Rumors wonders if Ned Colletti will be back next season as the Dodgers' GM and whether he deserves to be.
  • MLB Notebook breaks down the possibility of Prince Fielder being traded this off-season.
  • Jorge Says No! writes about the Mariners' inability to sign Felix Hernandez to an extension.
  • DC Sports Plus looks at some free agent starting pitchers that could help the Nationals next season, with John Lackey, Jason Marquis and Joel Pineiro at the top of the wishlist.
  • The Ghost of Midnight Graham suggests that teams avoid Pineiro this winter.
  • UmpBump takes a look at who might be playing first base for the Braves next season.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here, and followed on Twitter here.

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