Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners
Let’s take a look at the ’09 Mariners. They’ll have their new GM in place in time for the free agency period.
C – Kenji Johjima – $8MM
C – Jamie Burke – $435K
1B – Bryan LaHair – $400K
2B – Jose Lopez – $1.6MM
SS – Yuniesky Betancourt – $2MM
3B – Adrian Beltre – $12MM
IF – Tug Hulett – $400K
IF –
LF –
CF – Wladimir Balentien – $400K
RF – Ichiro Suzuki – $17MM
OF – Jeremy Reed – $400K+
DH – Jeff Clement – $400K
SP – Felix Hernandez – $540K+
SP – Erik Bedard – $7MM+
SP – Jarrod Washburn – $10.35MM
SP – Carlos Silva – $11MM
SP – Brandon Morrow – $400K
RP – J.J. Putz – $5MM
RP – Sean Green – $405K
RP – Mark Lowe – $400K
RP – Roy Corcoran – $400K
RP – Miguel Batista – $9MM
RP – R.A. Dickey – $400K
RP – Ryan Rowland-Smith – $400K
The Mariners have about $88MM committed, plus arbitration raises for Reed, Hernandez, and Bedard. Not 100% sure on Reed’s eligibility. We’ll estimate an additional $7MM in arb raises, bringing commitments to around $95MM. The Mariners entered the season with a $117.6MM payroll. That might mean $20MM+ to spend if they plan on being competitive in ’09.
The Mariners are 12th in OBP and 11th in SLG. They’re 12th in starters’ ERA and 9th in reliever ERA.
This could be a tough club to rebuild, with a three-year window for Felix and several hard-to-move contracts. Will a new GM step in and try to assemble a worst-to-first team for ’09?
I’m not sure why, but Johjima became a problem this year. The best baseball move would be to eat most of the $24MM he has coming and try Clement and Burke behind the plate. Not much can be done with the low-OBP middle infield; at least Lopez has been decent. It may be difficult to upgrade on Beltre, so they should keep him unless a total rebuild is in order.
In the outfield, it’d make sense to flip Ichiro and Balentien. Offensively the Ms are looking to fill the easiest positions – first base, left field, and DH. They could take draft picks for Ibanez and consider high-OBP free agents like Jason Giambi, Milton Bradley, Manny Ramirez, Brian Giles, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Bobby Abreu. Ideally, the Ms would dig up a high-OBP minor league veteran in the Dan Johnson/Brian Myrow/Josh Whitesell mold.
If you squint, you can envision a huge contract year from Bedard, more progress from Felix, and a breakout for Morrow. The last two starting jobs could be determined on merit rather than salary, and a few bargain free agent pitchers could be signed as well.
Realistically the Mariners are not built to contend next year. With Beltre, Washburn, Batista, and Bedard off the books after the ’09 season, it’d be logical to wait until then to remake the team (or trade these veterans for young players). But the Mariners do have front-rotation pitching talent. It would be interesting to see if a shrewd GM could wring a wild card out of it.
Mariners’ Top Pick Remains Unsigned
Jim Hickey of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer is reporting that the Mariners and their top pick, Josh Fields, remain about $500K apart in their negotiations. As a player that has completed his college eligibility, Fields was not subject to the August 15 deadline for picks to sign.
Fields’ agent, Scott Boras is demanding $2MM while the Mariners are said to be offering $1.5MM, which is in line with the MLB’s slotting recommendations. Hickey feels it is unlikely that Boras and Fields will move from their asking price and seem willing to let Fields pitch for an independent league team this year and re-enter the draft next June.
Bleeding Blue and Teal thinks the Mariners may be better off not signing Fields. They question the M’s need for a closer while the team is rebuilding and note that Seattle could have four of the top 50 picks next year if Fields goes unsigned.
Fields (#20 overall) is one of three first round picks that has not signed. The other two players, Aaron Crow (WAS, #9 overall) and Gerrit Cole (NYY, #28) did not sign prior to the deadline. Crow has signed with an independent league team and Cole will play for UCLA.
Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.
Odds and Ends: Hart, Ellis, Mientkiewicz, Varitek
Today’s random links…
- Ken Rosenthal discusses possible changes at various GM positions. Jon Heyman says Pat Gillick could take a high-ranking role with the Blue Jays if not the Mariners.
- Former Indians and Rangers GM John Hart is interested in the Mariners job. The Mariners hope to have their permanent GM hired by the end of October.
- A Japanese pitcher invented a new pitch called the shake.
- Eddie Bajek wonders if Mark Ellis could handle shortstop. It’s good to think out of the box given the free agent market at the position.
- Doug Mientkiewicz would like to spend another season as a Pirates clubhouse leader, but he’d also like more playing time.
- The trio of Blue Jays middle infielders react to the Angels rumor.
- DraftInfo chatted with MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo.
- Amalie Benjamin believes there’s a good chance the Red Sox re-sign Jason Varitek.
Stark’s Latest: Teixeira, Lamb, Ibanez, Blake
Hot stove highlights from Jayson Stark’s latest…
- Stark sees the Mets picking up Carlos Delgado‘s $12MM option for ’09, taking them out of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes. He sees the Yankees in the mix for Tex. Will Teixeira top the $140MM the Rangers offered him?
- The Yanks will also pursue a top flight starting pitcher, with C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets as Plans A and B.
- Stark does not see the Braves diving into megadeals for Sabathia, Sheets, or A.J. Burnett. They’ll have payroll room, but could pursue trades or mid-tier free agents.
- Stark says friends of Tom Glavine and John Smoltz indicate they both want another go at it in ’09. They’re hoping the Braves will offer low-base incentivized deals. If the Braves spurn Glavine, I wonder if he’ll sign with the Nationals.
- Mike Lamb and the Phillies have mutual interest. A trade might make more sense than awaiting his release, so that he’d be eligible for the postseason roster.
- A friend of Raul Ibanez says the Mariners are unlikely to convince him to re-sign. They’ll snag a couple of draft picks if they offer arbitration and he signs elsewhere. The prospect of losing a draft pick makes Ibanez less attractive to other teams though.
- The Dodgers are considering re-signing Casey Blake and moving Blake DeWitt to second base.
A Closer Look at Strasburg
A spot on the US Olympic team has thrown some extra attention on 20-year old San Diego State hurler Stephen Strasburg, likely to be the top pick in next year’s draft. As Thomas Boswell wrote today in the Washington Post, Strasburg’s fastball has been clocked at 101 mph and it’s not even his best pitch (that would be his curveball).
Boswell excited because his hometown Nats are so terrible, they just might be getting the No. 1 draft pick that would let them snag the 220 lb, 6’4" Strasburg. But Buster Olney rains on his parade:
Strasburg’s advisor is Scott Boras, and if the Nationals thought the asking price of Aaron Crow was high, well, they ain’t seen nothing yet.
Nonetheless, DC scribes are following the scouts’ lead and positively drooling over the big righty. In addition to his high-90s heater and his 70s curve, Strasburg has a slider in the 80s and struck out 23 batters in one game in April.
Washington has a .354 winning percentage as of right now. The only other teams under .400 are San Diego (.375) and Seattle (.367).
Sarah Green writes for UmpBump and the Boston Metro. She can be reached here.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Howard, Burrell, Burnett
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a new column up today.
- With Ryan Howard looking at maybe a $14MM salary in his second year of arbitration, the Phillies could shop him this winter. Rosenthal lays out a scenario where they trade Howard and use some of those young players to acquire Matt Holliday. In this scenario Pat Burrell could be re-signed to play first base. I was surprised to see that a club official sees the chances of retaining Burrell as better than 50-50.
- If A.J. Burnett opts out, he will again favor teams such as the Nationals, Orioles, and Cardinals. Rosenthal thinks the Yankees and Mets are possible as well. And it’s still possible the Jays convince Burnett to stay by adding to his ’09 and ’10 salaries.
- Rosenthal frowns upon the Mariners’ double-failure to unload Jarrod Washburn‘s contract.
Odds and Ends: Elias, Izzy, Silva, Colletti
Linkage for Wednesday…
- Eddie Bajek over at Detroit Tigers Thoughts has successfully reverse-engineered the Elias Type A/Type B formula. Today he assigns statuses to the American League catchers. Jason Varitek clings to Type A, while Ivan Rodriguez has slipped to Type B. Read more about how free agent compensation works here.
- Jason Isringhausen‘s season, and maybe his career, is over due to a torn flexor tendon in his elbow.
- J.C. Bradbury puts on his GM hat for the Braves. Rather than plug in free agent signings, he’d sell off most of the infield.
- MetsBlog’s Matthew Cerrone extinguishes a Carlos Silva rumor.
- ESPN’s Buster Olney grades the deadline deals. He has Ken Griffey Jr., Kyle Farnsworth, and Damaso Marte bringing up the rear.
- Tim Brown explains that Ned Colletti’s job is safe.
- Johnny Damon hopes A.J. Burnett opts out of his deal. Does he just want Burnett out of the league, or is he hoping the righty joins the Yanks’ rotation next year?
- Twins reliever Brian Bass may become a free agent, if he refuses a Triple A assignment.
Odds and Ends: Pavano, Dunn, Brocail, Washburn
Random links for the day…
- Joel Sherman notes that Carl Pavano has a chance to help his own cause if he can be mildly useful in September. Pavano will be a free agent after the season when the Yankees buy out his $13MM option.
- The Reds will free up about $30MM in payroll, and Walt Jocketty plans to be active.
- Ben Bolch notes that the Dodgers could’ve blocked the D’Backs’ waiver claim of Adam Dunn. Bolch cites the risk that caused the Dodgers to pass – Dunn’s salary and their outfield logjam. But as readers of this site have pointed out, why not claim Dunn and offer a player of no value? Would Walt Jocketty have chosen salary relief over two draft picks?
- Multiple teams put in claims on reliever Doug Brocail, but the Astros did not want to trade him. The ‘Stros are playing for a miracle, as they’re assigned less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs.
- Geoff Baker supported the Mariners’ decision not to trade Jarrod Washburn in July, but now they’ve overplayed their hand.
Post-Draft Roundup: Hosmer, Smoak, Strasburg
Below I’ve collected more interesting remaining links regarding the amateur draft.
- The Royals bumped their offer from $5MM to $6MM and signed top pick Eric Hosmer. Rany Jazayerli was surprised to see Hosmer effectively get more than #1 pick Tim Beckham. The Royals joined the Red Sox and Pirates as teams spending around $10MM on draft picks this year.
- The Rangers resisted a Major League deal for Justin Smoak, and ultimately signed him to a $3.5MM minor league deal. Owner Tom Hicks pined for a hard slot system.
- The story of pitcher Chris Gruler, picked third overall by the Reds in ’02, reminds us to temper our enthusiasm for these kids. Many will bust.
- Tim Lincecum says Buster Posey can expect other minor leaguers to treat him differently because of the bonus he received.
- The race is on for Stephen Strasburg, who is separating himself from the pack as the top talent in the ’09 draft. The Mariners, Padres, and Nationals all have a shot at him, with the Nats in the "lead." Would the Nats avoid Strasburg due to signability concerns?
Players Who Cleared Waivers
I will make this post a permanent sidebar link. This is a running list of players who have cleared waivers, based on published reports. Once a player clears waivers, he can be traded to any team (barring a no-trade clause).
Updated 8-25-08 at 9:00am. Latest to clear in red.
- Paul Byrd – Byrd cleared waivers, but then was traded to the Red Sox. They were the only team willing to pay his remaining $2MM.
- Frank Catalanotto – Catalanotto, 34, is hitting .272/.337/.389 in 267 plate appearances. He’s played first base and left field this year. He’s not helpful against lefthanded pitching. His contract is a problem – $765K this year, $4MM in ’09, and a $2MM buyout in ’10.
- Eric Gagne – Gagne has been awful this year, as his walks and home runs skyrocketed and he dealt with rotator cuff tendinitis. Understandably, no one wanted to pay the $2.15MM remaining on his contract.
- Aubrey Huff – Huff’s .909 OPS ranks 10th in the league, but surprisingly no team wanted to take on his $10.1MM commitment through ’09.
- Mark Kotsay – Ken Rosenthal says he cleared and a number of teams are interested. Kotsay clearing is a bit of a surprise since the A’s are paying most of his salary. Kotsay can block trades to eight teams. The center fielder is having a nice comeback season with a .782 OPS in 324 plate appearances.
- Greg Maddux – Maddux is earning $10MM this year and will only accept a trade to a West Coast team. The Dodgers wanted him but asked the Padres to pay more than 80% of his remaining salary according to Peter Gammons.
- Kevin Millar – Millar has been OK this year; he may reach 20 home runs. He is owed about $710K from here on out.
- Kevin Millwood – Millwood, 33, has a 5.24 ERA in 122 innings this year. He’s dealt with a groin injury for much of the season, as well as a hamstring issue in spring. Millwood will earn another $1.6MM this year and $11MM in ’09. His 2010 salary of $12MM becomes a club option unless he pitches 180 innings in ’09.
- Melvin Mora – Mora has raised his numbers and stock significantly by hitting .378/.421/.652 since the beginning of July. He has a full no-trade clause and is owed $9MM next year and $1.79MM more this year.
- Vicente Padilla – Padilla, 31 in September, has a 4.98 ERA in 148.1 innings. Home runs have been his main problem. He spent time on the DL with a strained neck. He’ll earn another $2.1MM this year and $12MM in ’09. He has a $12MM club option for ’10 with a $1.75MM buyout.
- Jay Payton – Payton is the O’s regular center fielder with Adam Jones out for the season. He is owed $1.3MM for the rest of the season. He’s been lousy offensively, though he can hit lefties and play all three outfield positions.
- David Riske – Riske is owed $860K more this year, $4.25MM in ’09, and $4.5MM in ’10 plus a $250K buyout for a total of almost $10MM. Walks have been a problem this year, as well as elbow pain.
- Dave Ross – Ross had cleared waivers prior to being designated for assignment. He is earning $2.525MM this year.
- Duaner Sanchez – His velocity is down 3.6 mph from ’06. Sanchez is under team control through ’09.
- Scott Schoeneweis – His strikeout rate is down, but so is his ERA. Apparently no team wanted to risk taking on his contract – $910K more this year, $3.6MM in ’09.
- Gary Sheffield – No surprise here. Sheff is owed around $17.5 million between this year and next.
- Jamie Walker – The 37 year-old southpaw has a 5.00 ERA in 27 innings this year. As usual, home runs have been a problem. He spent time on the DL with elbow inflammation and is set to earn $4.5MM next year.
- David Weathers – Weathers is owed only $610K on the season, and he has a 2.52 ERA and 2.78 K/BB since the beginning of June. I am quite surprised he cleared waivers.