Cardinals Rumors

Carlos Martinez To Miss Rest Of Season

By charliewilmoth | September 26, 2015 at 3:41pm CDT

SATURDAY: Martinez has a shoulder strain and will miss the rest of the season, the Cardinals have announced. Martinez will also miss the postseason. He will not have surgery, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets.

FRIDAY: Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez left his start against the Brewers tonight after throwing just seven pitches. The team has announced that Martinez has right shoulder tightness and that his departure from the game was precautionary. He will receive an MRI tomorrow, manager Mike Matheny said.

Martinez was visibly in pain after that seventh pitch, turning his shoulder awkwardly and stepping off the mound. He then covered his face with his glove as he walked off the field. His average fastball velocity this year has been over 95 MPH, but none of his pitches tonight topped 93 MPH.

At this point in the season, losing Martinez for any significant period of time would be unfortunate for the Cardinals. Like most of the rest of the Cards’ starters, Martinez has been terrific this year. He has a 3.01 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and an excellent 54.7% ground ball rate in 179 1/3 innings, and he’s emerged as one of the National League’s top young starters.

NL Central Notes: Counsell, Happ, Marshall, Wainwright

By Steve Adams | September 24, 2015 at 1:33pm CDT

If newly minted Brewers GM David Stearns elects to keep Craig Counsell in the manager’s role, the two appear to be a very good fit with one another on the surface, writes David Laurila of Fangraphs. Laurila spoke to Counsell recently about how his time working in the Brewers’ front office gave him an appreciation of analytics and how his years working with Doug Melvin have made him receptive to input from the front office. “Part of what working in the office did for me was provide a lot of exposure to the analytics side,” said Counsell. “That was valuable, because every day it plays a part in your decision-making. You’re challenged by what your eyes are telling you, you’re challenged by what the information is telling you, and you strike a balance. That’s managing. … [A] great thing about working in the front office was that it gave me a different perspective. You see the game differently. When you’re in the forest every day, you always don’t see it.” The entire interview is well worth a read, as Counsell offers an insightful, forward-thinking take on the evolving role of a manager and the incorporation of data and analytical information into his job.

A few more notes from the league’s toughest division…

In the final minutes leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline, J.A. Happ had heard nothing about a trade, writes MLB.com’s Jack Etkin, leading to a very surprised reaction from the lefty when he learned after the deadline had passed that he’d been dealt to the Pirates in a last-minute swap. Happ’s trade didn’t make too many headlines, but he’s been a vital component to the Pirates’ stretch drive, Etkin notes, pitching to a brilliant 2.28 ERA in nine starts with Pittsburgh. Happ appears to be yet another triumph for vaunted Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage, as his ERA, along with his 10.2 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 rates, rank as the best work of his career. Happ, however, is just happy to have the opportunity to contribute to a playoff push — a sensation he hasn’t had since 2008-09 with the Phillies. “You come in and kind of realize what this team’s doing and what they’re capable of,” Happ said. “It’s been a lot of fun. It feels good to contribute.”
Sean Marshall’s career has been dramatically altered by shoulder surgeries, but the 33-year-old Reds left-hander tells C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he still hopes to play beyond the 2015 season. Marshall, who thought the surgery he underwent in May (his second shoulder operation) could be career-ending, now hopes to pitch for the Reds before the season comes to a close. He’s dropped his arm angle about four to six inches, he estimates. “I want to keep playing,” Marshall tells Rosecrans. “I’m not ready to hang ’em up yet. I still feel great.”
Adam Wainwright threw 25 pitches to teammates yesterday, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. However, the injured Cardinals ace, who hopes to return for the postseason as a reliever, said he still feels “a hair off,” even though he considers his pitches to be “game-ready.” The next step for Wainwright is a simulated game without a screen (he threw from behind a screen Wednesday) so that he can field his position. Manager Mike Matheny wouldn’t offer any definitive take on whether or not Wainwright would pitch in the playoffs, stating that the decision would come down to what’s best for the team. He did, however, note that he’s a firm believer that, come the postseason, experience is an important factor.

Latest On Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright Injuries

By Steve Adams | September 21, 2015 at 4:29pm CDT

After undergoing an MRI, Yadier Molina has been diagnosed with a slightly torn ligament in his left thumb that will sideline him for an indefinite period of time, tweets the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold. Cardinals GM John Mozeliak is “cautiously optimistic” that Molina will return for the playoffs, though, according to a tweet from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, and he’s not the only injured star that could make a postseason appearance; ace Adam Wainwright could rejoin the club in a relief capacity for October, according to Goold. Wainwright has been cleared for baseball activities.

Molina’s injury was the reason for the Cardinals’ DFA of first baseman Xavier Scruggs — as a 40-man move was required in order to recall a replacement catcher. As MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch writes, Molina sustained the injury on a swipe tag of Anthony Rizzo on a game-saving outfield assist from Jason Heyward yesterday.

The 33-year-old Molina has had a down season, hitting just .270/.310/.350 with four home runs. He’s still been excellent at controlling the running game, however, preventing 41 percent of stolen base attempts against him. He’s also drawn positive reviews for his pitch-framing skills once again, saving 5.7 runs above average per StatCorner.com and 7.4 runs per Baseball Prospectus. Even if his bat hasn’t lived up to his standards this season, the potential loss of his defense and familiarity with the pitching staff would be a huge blow for the Cardinals in the postseason should he be unable to return. He’ll be re-evaluated in five to seven days.

On the flip side of the coin, the potential return of Wainwright would be a somewhat unexpected boost to an already dangerous club (though as Nightengale tweets, Wainwright never once believed himself to be done for the season). Wainwright tossed 25 excellent innings for the Cardinals to open the season, but the longtime St. Louis ace ruptured his Achilles tendon midway through his fourth start of the season.

Goold reported yesterday that Wainwright would meet with doctors today in order to see if he could pitch this year, and while he clearly won’t have time to build up to a starter’s workload, adding that caliber of arm to the bullpen would be a boon for the Cardinals who, of course, are plenty familiar with the impact Wainwright can have on a postseason from the bullpen. Wainwright fired 9 2/3 shutout relief innings with a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio as a 24-year-old rookie in 2006, striking out Carlos Beltran to seal the NLCS and Brandon Inge to lock down the World Series.

Cardinals Designate Xavier Scruggs For Assignment

By Steve Adams | September 21, 2015 at 3:55pm CDT

The Cardinals have designated first baseman Xavier Scruggs for assignment, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). The move will clear room on the 40-man roster for catcher Travis Tartamella.

Scruggs, who’ll turn 28 in a few days, has seen minimal big league time in each of the last two seasons. He hasn’t done much damage in that minuscule sample, but does own a solid .264/.357/.456 slash at the Triple-A level since the start of 2014.

As for Tartamella, 27, he has carried rather anemic batting lines throughout his minor league career. But his glovework is held in high regard, and he’ll represent another depth option behind the dish with Yadier Molina set to miss some time.

NL Central Notes: Wainwright, Jocketty, Cubs

By Mark Polishuk | September 20, 2015 at 10:35pm CDT

The Brewers’ impending hiring of David Stearns as their new general manager is the biggest news out of the NL Central today, and here’s some more from around the division…

Adam Wainwright will meet with doctors on Monday to determine if he has a chance to pitch again this season, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. The Cardinals ace ruptured his Achillies tendon in late April, an injury that usually has a 9-12 month recovery period. Wainwright has been throwing bullpen sessions to build up his arm strength, though he has yet to practice fielding during his rehab process.
Reds GM Walt Jocketty said his team will look at add at least one veteran starting pitcher this offseason, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The interview includes Jocketty’s general overview of Cincinnati’s disappointing season, though the GM believes the Reds can rebound in 2016 with fewer injuries and possible help from an improving farm system, and “by 2017, we’ll be back up and running.”
Jocketty doesn’t regret dealing the likes of Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, as it the trades brought some needed prospect depth into the Reds’ system. The reinforcements were necessary given the overall strength of the NL Central, “so this was the time you kind of step back and rebuild it a little….not rebuild, but retool. We’re not that far away,” Jocketty said.
Twelve key decisions best outline Theo Epstein’s master plan to rebuild the Cubs, according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. The list includes everything from important draft picks to coaching changes to notable additions and subtractions, and the list even includes a mistake — Edwin Jackson’s free agent contract “served as a cautionary tale for Epstein.”

NL Notes: Lackey, D’Backs, Kimbrel, Colletti

By Jeff Todd | September 18, 2015 at 7:33pm CDT

MLBTR has learned the full details of the incentives clause negotiated last winter between the Cardinals and righty John Lackey. (Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has already reported major elements of the clause.) The provision calls for $400K payouts to Lackey for reaching each of five innings tallies. His first milestone was 100 innings, with successive markers every 25 innings thereafter. When Lackey reached 200 frames last night, he maxed out the bonus at a total of $2MM (on top of the league minimum salary that was already called for in his deal).

Here are some more notes from the National League:

The Diamondbacks face several contract questions regarding pitchers even before considering outside additions, as Zach Buchanan of AZCentral Sports writes. Whether to tender Jeremy Hellickson and Jhoulys Chacin, exercise a club option over Josh Collmenter, and pursue a reunion with free agent-to-be David Hernandez are among the matters that Arizona will need to address. Chief baseball officer Tony La Russa discussed all four pitchers with Buchanan. Most interestingly, perhaps, is the situation regarding Chacin. La Russa says that he has “seen enough from Chacin” to know that he’d be “in the competition” for the club next year. The 27-year-old looked good at Triple-A this year and has put together three nice outings for Arizona. Because of his limited MLB time this year, he is arb-eligible. Chacin had agreed to a $5.5MM deal with the Rockies before he was released in the spring before signing successive minor league deals with the Indians and D’Backs. My guess would be that the club will look to work something out with him before the tender deadline.
Padres closer Craig Kimbrel says it’s been a frustrating first season in San Diego, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. Kimbrel says that he expects the club to improve next year, citing the assembly of new faces as one factor that may have slowed down the Pads this year. Of course, as Lin writes, it’s certainly plausible to imagine a scenario where Kimbrel is dealt elsewhere to address other areas of needs or re-build the farm system.
Former Dodgers GM Ned Colletti, who now works with the organization as an adviser, is “right in the middle of everything, but nowhere near anything,” Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times writes. But as Plaschke points out, Colletti — who says it’s been “a different kind of year” — was responsible for bringing in many of the team’s key pieces. That includes not only players like Clayton Kershaw and Zach Grienke, but youngsters such as Joc Pederson and Corey Seager. All said, the piece suggests, Colletti’s nine-year tenure as the head of the organization’s baseball operations department was probably more successful than many have acknowledged.

Free Agent Stock Watch: John Lackey

By Steve Adams | September 18, 2015 at 3:09pm CDT

For all of the talk about the top names on the 2015-16 free agent market — and there are quite a few, with David Price, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann and many others seeing their contracts expire — John Lackey’s strong season has flown largely under the radar.

Perhaps due to his age — Lackey will pitch next season at age 37 — Lackey hasn’t generated the amount of fanfare that his younger peers have enjoyed, but the veteran right-hander has turned in a stellar platform campaign which can serve as the basis for perhaps one final, sizable multi-year contract.

Lackey’s contractual status for 2015 has been well-publicized; the Tommy John surgery he underwent now more than three years ago triggered a clause in his five-year, $82.5MM contract that tacked on a club option at the league minimum. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported recently that Lackey and the Cardinals agreed to add some incentives to the deal, so Lackey will take home a little more than $2MM in 2015 based on innings pitched. It’s an upgrade from his league-minimum base salary, but it’s hardly a payday that is commensurate with the outstanding results turned in by Lackey in his first full season in the National League.

Lackey has, at present, thrown an even 200 innings this season and worked to a 2.79 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a characteristically solid, if unspectacular 45.3 percent ground-ball rate. Sabermetric indicators such as FIP (3.57), xFIP (3.90) and SIERA (4.02) all feel that Lackey has benefited from some good fortune — more specifically his atypical 81.7 percent strand rate. Lackey’s stranded runners at about a 73 percent clip in his career, and abnormal strand rates — whether on the high or low side — have a tendency to regress toward a pitcher’s career rate.

Even if Lackey’s true talent is more of a mid- to upper-3.00 ERA pitcher, however, there’s unquestionably a market for durable, playoff-tested starters that can be penciled in for 30+ starts each season. Lackey looks every bit that part, even with some ERA regression. Over the past three seasons, Lackey’s averaged 30 starts/196 innings per season (those numbers, of course, will go up, as he has a few remaining turns in 2015) and worked to a cumulative 3.37 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate of roughly 45 percent. Those peripheral stats are near-mirror images of his 2015 performance, and his average fastball velocity has remained consistent as well, sitting at 91.7 mph or 91.6 mph in each of those seasons.

Lackey may not be a true ace like Price or Zack Greinke, and he may not have the ceiling of some of his second-tier peers such as Scott Kazmir or possess the pure stuff of a Jeff Samardzija. But, what he does bring to the table is a recent history of consistently above-average innings, and that ability has proven to be lucrative in recent years, even for aging pitchers.

Bronson Arroyo landed a two-year, $23.5MM contract from the D-Backs based largely on his ability to rack up league-average innings year after year. Lackey doesn’t have the string of 200+ inning seasons that Arroyo did, but he’s also turned in far better recent results and has historically been a superior pitcher. Tim Hudson landed the same type of contract heading into his age-38 season. Lackey will be a year younger and coming off a brilliant 200-inning season, whereas Hudson didn’t pitch in the final two months of the 2013 campaign due to a fractured ankle. Beyond that, the overall strength of the free agent market has grown a bit since those deals were signed.

Lackey should be able to find, at minimum, a two-year contract with a stronger average annual value than Arroyo and Hudson, but a three-year deal wouldn’t be shocking. His agents at Octagon could very well aim for the sky and seek a deal similar to Derek Lowe’s precedent-setting four-year pact at the age of 37, but that outcome seems unlikely. Barring an injury or complete meltdown in his final few starts and/or the postseason, Lackey is poised for a significant payday — perhaps one that’s larger than many would’ve expected based on his age.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Central Notes: Lackey Contract, Suarez, Nelson

By Steve Adams | September 18, 2015 at 10:32am CDT

The final inning thrown by John Lackey in his last outing brought him to 200 on the season, and that number has more meaning than just serving as a nice, round milestone, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. As Goold reports, the Cardinals and Lackey reworked his 2015 contract so that he would earn a $400K bonus upon reaching 200 innings. Of course, Lackey’s 2015 salary will still be peanuts compared to his career earnings and the previous, $16.5MM annual salary on his five-year deal. That contract contained a clause that added a club option at the league minimum in the event that Lackey suffered a serious elbow injury, which he did midway through the deal when he required Tommy John surgery. Goold previously reported that Lackey would’ve earned $1.2MM in bonuses at 150 innings, so this next bonus figures to push him slightly over $400K when factoring in his $507K base. Even at ~$2.1MM, Lackey would be among the game’s best bargains. The 36-year-old has turned in a 2.79 ERA with 7.1 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 in his 200 innings this season.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

Eugenio Suarez has done a brilliant job filling in for injured Reds shortstop Zack Cozart since being recalled midway through the year, but there won’t be many at-bats for him at shortstop in 2016 when Cozart is back up to speed. The 24-year-old Suarez, though, is more than willing to switch positions to remain in the lineup, he tells MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. “If they need me at another position, I would try to play there,” said Suarez. “For me, the important thing is to play in the big leagues.” Manager Bryan Price said that he thinks both Cozart and Suarez can be regulars for the Reds in the future. Suarez, who was acquired in the lopsided trade that sent Alfredo Simon to Detroit, has batted .284/.321/.458 with 11 homers in 81 games with the Reds this season. In my recent Three Needs piece on the Reds, I suggested that Cincinnati look to move Brandon Phillips to open playing time for Suarez at second base. Failing that, the Reds could try him in left field.
The Brewers and right-hander Jimmy Nelson received excellent news on Thursday after Nelson was struck in the head by a 108-mph line drive, writes Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. A CT scan somewhat incredibly revealed only a bruise, leaving the 26-year-old otherwise unscathed. Manager Craig Counsell wouldn’t commit to a plan of action for Nelson following the scare. Nelson has been one of Milwaukee’s most consistent starters in 2015, working to a 4.11 ERA (4.12 FIP, 4.07 xFIP) across 177 1/3 innings.

NL Central Notes: Martinez, Byrd, Heyward, Lucroy

By Steve Adams | September 16, 2015 at 9:02pm CDT

The Reds did indeed scout top Cuban outfield prospect Eddy Julio Martinez, tweets John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, but they’re not likely to sign the 20-year-old, he adds. The Reds aren’t interested in incurring maximum penalties for exceeding their international bonus pool, which they’d almost certainly need to do in order to sign Martinez. The team that signs Martinez will likely have to pay a 100 percent luxury tax for every dollar spent over their allotted pool, and they’ll also be restricted from signing future international prospects for more than $300K in each of the next two signing periods. That, of course, hasn’t deterred some clubs from spending big, but it perhaps makes it more likely that we’ll see Martinez land with a team that has already exceeded its bonus pool by a substantial margin. Interestingly, though, Fay hears that the price tag may have dropped below the previous $10MM+ expectations (Twitter link).

Here’s more from the NL Central…

Prior to being traded to the Giants, Marlon Byrd had somewhat of a “spat” with Reds bench coach Jay Bell, writes Fay in a separate column. Per Fay, Byrd became upset after Bell asked him to pinch-hit in the bottom of the eighth inning the day before he was traded, but he then sent Brayan Pena into the on-deck circle instead. Byrd ultimately wound up pinch-hitting, but only after a discussion with manager Bryan Price. “I didn’t get in a spat with Jay Bell,” said Byrd. “I had a conversation with the manager about Jay Bell. We had conversations all year about him. If you want to know more about that, you’d have to talk to him.” Byrd was traded to the Giants the next day, though he said he left on good terms with the his teammates and had generally positive things to say about the Reds in the conversation with Fay and other reporters.
Bernie Miklasz of 101 ESPN breaks down Jason Heyward’s free agent stock, adding that he expects the Cardinals to make a push to retain their right fielder. Though the outfield looks crowded in the short-term, Matt Holliday’s contract is up after 2016, as is Jon Jay’s. As such, the team could boast a future outfield of Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk and Heyward. While traditional numbers — homers, RBIs, batting average — don’t tell the full tale of Heyward’s value, Miklasz notes that more analytically inclined teams will be willing to make a big play for the 26-year-old. The Cardinals, Miklasz writes, prefer a higher annual value on a shorter-term deal than the risk of a nine- or 10-year pact, and they may even be open to including an opt-out clause, though that final point appears to be speculative in nature.
Though they’re division rivals, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny had no issues giving Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy some advice on how to handle the concussion symptoms with which he is currently dealing, writes the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak. Matheny, whose playing career ended due to a long history of concussions, recommended a specialist for Lucroy to see and urged him to take his time, noting points in his career where he believes he may have suffered a concussion then returned to the field the very next day, only to take another foul ball to the mask. “[Matheny] said it was not worth a repeat hit when you’re not healed up, because that’s when things get really, really bad in terms of not being able to drive, not being able to look at lights, throwing up and nausea and stuff like that,” said Lucroy. “He really stressed, ’Take your time.'” Dr. Micky Collins has told Lucroy that he can make a full recovery from what has been diagnosed as a vestibular concussion — or one that impacts his coordination and movement.

MLBTR Mailbag: Heyward, Murphy, Red Sox

By Mark Polishuk | September 14, 2015 at 9:08pm CDT

Thanks for all of your questions this week. Remember that you can ask about whatever is on your mind in our Tuesday afternoon chats (~2pm central) or through the Mailbag email address (mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com). On to this week’s questions…

Will the Cardinals extend Jason Heyward or not, because they did give up Shelby Miller to acquire him, and it doesn’t make much sense to let him walk after one year. — Michael P

The two sides haven’t had any serious talks about an extension yet, though there’s also some mutual interest in Heyward staying beyond 2015. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked the outfielder as having the second-most earning potential of any 2015-16 free agent, so it would take easily the largest contract in Cardinals franchise history to bring Heyward back into the fold. If Heyward did leave, the 2016 St. Louis starting outfield projects as Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty, with Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos as backups, which could leave room for another veteran outfielder to be brought in at a lower price than Heyward will command. Does a year of excellent play from Heyward, a month of Jordan Walden and a compensatory first-round draft pick (due to the qualifying offer) equal four years of control over Miller and prospect Tyrell Jenkins? That’s a question that might take a few more years to answer, though the Cards would instantly chalk it up as a win if Heyward helps them win a championship. I’d guess that St. Louis will make a strong play to re-sign Heyward this offseason, though if the bidding gets really high (into the $180MM-$200MM range), that might be too expensive for the Cards’ liking.

Care to handicap the odds that Sandy Alderson extends a QO to Daniel Murphy? If offered is there any chance that Murph becomes the first player to ever accept? I’d imagine his agent will make lots of noise that he would “love to stay in NY on a 1 year deal to finish the job” in an attempt to bluff the Mets out of hurting his market value. — Cliff P

The upcoming class of free agent second and third basemen isn’t very deep, so I’d expect Murphy would indeed reject a qualifying offer in search of a healthy multi-year deal elsewhere. He should be able to find such a deal despite the draft pick compensation attached to his services, though Cliff is probably right in thinking that Murphy’s market will take a hit from the QO. If Murphy did break precedent and accept, it wouldn’t be the worst outcome for the Mets; a one-year/$16MM deal for an everyday second baseman who can also be something of a poor man’s Ben Zobrist in his ability to fill in at multiple other positions.

Yes or No. The Red Sox will sign one of the following this offseason: David Price, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann? — Kyle R

I’m leaning towards no. Anibal Sanchez is the only notable starting pitcher Dave Dombrowski has ever acquired in free agency, and even then Sanchez was re-signed after originally coming to the Tigers in a midseason deal. Dombrowski’s past history with starting pitcher contracts (hat tip to the MLBTR Transaction Tracker) indicates that he is more likely to obtain an ace via trade. Dombrowski could change tactics given his new surroundings and input from whomever is hired as the new Red Sox GM, though my guess is that if the Sox do land a top-tier arm this winter, it will be by dealing from their deep farm system.

What is Bronson Arroyo’s current standing with the Dodgers? Will he ever be able to pitch in the majors again, this year or next? — Jack S

Arroyo underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2014. He said in June that he was hoping to return to action by mid-August, there has been no recent word on his status now that August has come and gone. As such, he’s almost certainly not going to pitch this season. The Dodgers have a $13MM club option on Arroyo for 2016 that is sure to be bought out for $4.5MM (paid by the Braves, as per a condition of the elaborate trade that brought Arroyo to Los Angeles). If Arroyo is healthy, I’d expect he will find a a minor league deal from some team this winter. Arroyo hasn’t hinted at retirement in the wake of his injury, though since he’ll turn 39 in February, you have to wonder if he’ll consider hanging up his spikes if his recovery process is taking longer than expected.

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