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2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Cardinals Activate Miles Mikolas

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The Cardinals announced Friday that right-hander Miles Mikolas has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list and will start tonight’s game. St. Louis placed right-hander Ryan Helsley on the 10-day injured list with a stress reaction in his right elbow, opening a spot on the active roster. Meanwhile, lefty Brandon Waddell has been placed on the Covid-19 injured list, tweets Zachary Silver of MLB.com, which opens a spot on the 40-man roster.

Tonight’s start is not only just Mikolas’ second appearance of the season — it’s second appearance overall dating back to the 2019 season. The right-hander parlayed an excellent three-year stint in Japan into a two-year, $15.5MM deal with the Cardinals, and he showed well enough in his return to MLB that the Cards signed him to a four-year, $68MM extension that spanned the 2020-23 seasons. Forearm surgery wiped out Mikolas’ entire 2020 season, however, and he’s spent the bulk of the current season on the injured list with continued forearm troubles.

Since returning to the Major Leagues in 2018, Mikolas has pitched quite well, logging a collective 3.45 earned run average with an 18.4 percent strikeout rate, a minuscule 3.9 percent walk rate and an above-average 48.4 percent ground-ball rate. Mikolas made the 2018 All-Star team and pitched well enough that season to land a sixth-place finish in National League Cy Young voting.

He’ll return to a Cardinals rotation that has been hammered by injuries throughout the summer but is now getting as close to full strength as it’s been in quite some time. Jack Flaherty returned to the staff a week ago after missing two months with an oblique tear, and the Cards hope to get Kwang Hyun Kim back from the 10-day injured list sooner than later. He made a rehab start just yesterday.

Flaherty and Mikolas join cornerstone Adam Wainwright and trade deadline newcomers J.A. Happ and Jon Lester in the rotation for now as the Cardinals do their best to chase down the second National League Wild Card spot. St. Louis has won seven of its past ten games to trim its deficit to three and a half games.

Cardinals, Yadier Molina Discussing Extension

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Aug. 20: Both Molina and the team are encouraged by the recent talks, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who adds that they’re making progress toward a deal.

Aug. 19: The Cardinals and catcher Yadier Molina are in talks on a one-year extension that would cover the 2022 season, per Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). Molina is earning $9MM on his current one-year contract and is eyeing a guarantee of at least that same amount for next season.

Molina has spoken in the past of playing through his age-40 season, which would be the 2022 campaign. Re-signing him for the 2022 campaign would allow the Cards to use Molina and Andrew Knizner as bridges to catching prospect Ivan Herrera, who’s playing in Double-A as a 21-year-old this season.

Of course, a Molina extension would mean another year of rather sparse usage for the 26-year-old Knizner, who was a fairly well-regarded prospect himself but hasn’t had much of a look in the big leagues thanks to Molina’s heavy workload. Knizner is hitting .177/.295/.257 in 132 plate appearances this year and has just 207 total plate appearances since debuting in 2019.

The 39-year-old Molina, meanwhile, has racked up 353 plate appearances on the season and turned in a .256/.303/.378 batting line with eight home runs and 16 doubles, and he’s even gone 3-for-3 in stolen-base attempts — his first steals since the 2019 campaign. It’s a far cry from his peak production back in 2012, when he turned in an outstanding .315/.373/.501 slash and a career-high 22 home runs in 563 plate appearances, but this year’s production is more or less in line with Molina’s output in 2019-20. Molina’s 86 wRC+ indicates he’s been about 14 percent worse than a league-average hitter over that period of two-plus seasons, but his production is about in line with that of an average Major League catcher.

As usual, Molina has drawn standout marks for his defensive work this season. His 43 percent caught-stealing rate is 17 percent better than the 26 percent league average, and Defensive Runs Saved values him at plus-5 overall. Statcast and FanGraphs feel his framing work has dipped below average, but Molina rates about average in that category over at Baseball Prospectus and has a long track record of excellence in that regard.

Moreover, the Cardinals would surely value Molina’s influence over what can only be a younger pitching staff in 2022. The Cards have relied on a cast of mid- or late-30s starters this summer, due in part to injuries, but next year’s rotation ought to include Jack Flaherty, a returning Dakota Hudson (who’s been out all year after Tommy John surgery) and perhaps touted young arms like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson. Molina’s experience and general receiving skills would be an obvious bonus to any collection of young arms.

From a payroll vantage point, a contract worth $9MM-plus for Molina shouldn’t hamper the Cards’ ability to add this offseason. They currently have about $90MM in guaranteed contracts on the books, which is nearly $80MM shy of their current payroll. That mark doesn’t include forthcoming arbitration raises for Jack Flaherty, Harrison Bader, Alex Reyes, Jordan Hicks, Giovanny Gallegos, Tyler O’Neill or the aforementioned Hudson, but even with those salary boosts the Cardinals will have tens of million in separation from their current payroll level.

It stands to reason that if the Cardinals are serious about hammering out another one-year deal with one franchise cornerstone, they’ll look to do so with the other franchise icon currently on the roster: Adam Wainwright. The 39-year-old right-hander is in the midst of a brilliant season and seemingly showing no signs of slowing down. If he wants to continue his career beyond the current season, the front office will surely explore the possibility of keeping him a lifelong Cardinal.

Outrighted: Hurst, Paulino, Morimando

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A trio of players have been passed through outright waivers:

  • Cardinals outfielder Scott Hurst will remain at Triple-A Memphis after he cleared waivers. Hurst made his first five big league plate appearances in April but he’s spent the past few months with Memphis. It’s been a difficult season for the lefty-hitting Hurst, who has just a .186/.289/.270 line over 251 plate appearances with the Redbirds.
  • The Phillies have sent right-hander David Paulino to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The former Astro and Blue Jay was selected to Philadelphia’s big league club last week. He got into a major league game for the first time since 2018, allowing two runs in as many innings during a loss to the Reds before being designated for assignment. The 27-year-old Paulino has spent the bulk of the year with the IronPigs, working to a 4.35 ERA over 51 2/3 innings.
  • Marlins left-hander Shawn Morimando has been outrighted to Triple-A Jacksonville, according to the MLB.com transactions tracker. He has the right to elect free agency but has seemingly accepted the assignment, as he’s listed on the Jumbo Shrimp active roster. That’s not especially surprising, as Morimando had twice previously accepted outright assignments after being waived earlier in the year. The 28-year-old southpaw has a 9.58 ERA over 10 1/3 innings with the Fish this season.

Injury Notes: Hoskins, Galvis, Boyd, LeBlanc, Kim

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Rhys Hoskins isn’t expected to come off the injured list when first eligible, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. The minimum 10-day stint will have elapsed by Tuesday, but Hoskins still hasn’t tested his injured groin by running. The first baseman just received a cortisone injection to try and aid his recovery and is still aiming to be activated at some point this week. Every game is crucial for the Phillies as they are in the thick of a three-team race for the AL East crown. They are currently tied with Atlanta for the top spot, with the Mets just 1 1/2 games behind. Hoskins is having another fine season at the plate, slashing .244/.332/.509, which is 23% better than league average by wRC+.

Salisbury also notes that Freddy Galvis has started taking batting practice and is progressing towards a rehab stint. The infielder was on the injured list with a quad strain when the Orioles traded him to the Phillies before the deadline. Before getting hurt, he was slashing .249/.306/.414. That amounts to a wRC+ of 97, which is below league average but a career high for Galvis. Despite never being a huge offensive threat, he’s long been a valuable contributor because of his excellent glovework.

Other notes from around the league…

  • Matthew Boyd is rehabbing and hoping to return before the end of August, reports Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. The lefty was placed on the IL in mid-June with a triceps issue but now potentially a few weeks away from returning. Boyd has a year of team control remaining before reaching free agency and figures to be an important part of the Tigers’ 2022 rotation as they look to move from rebuilding to contending. If he stays on track with his rehab, he could get more than a month’s worth of work in before the offseason. Prior to the injury, Boyd had an ERA of 3.44 on the year through 70 2/3 innings.
  • Neither Wade LeBlanc nor Kwang Hyun Kim are expected to come off the IL as soon as they are eligible, according to Cardinals manager Mike Shildt, per Jeff Jones of MLB.com. Kim, who has a 3.36 ERA in 91 innings this season, has been out since August 9th with elbow inflammation. LeBlanc, who also is dealing with an elbow issue, has an ERA of 3.61 in 42 1/3 innings for St. Louis this year. However, the rotation just welcomed Jack Flaherty back into the fold and could soon see a return of Miles Mikolas, who is currently on a rehab assignment. The club is currently 4 1/2 games behind a slumping Padres club for the final NL playoff spot, but with three teams in between them.

Cardinals Designate Scott Hurst For Assignment

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The Cardinals have activated Brandon Waddell from the IL and designated Scott Hurst for assignment, per a club announcement. Waddell was optioned and placed on the COVID-IL in mid-July. He will remain with the Triple-A club in Memphis. Hurst’s designation was required to open up a spot on the 40-man roster. (Players on the COVID-IL do not use a roster spot.)

Hurst, a 25-year-old outfielder, had his contract selected by the club in mid-April. He got into just seven games with only five hitless plate appearances before being optioned. His Triple-A performance has been less than ideal on the season, producing a slash line of .186/.289/.270 in 251 plate appearances across 59 games.

Despite those numbers, it’s possible he could be claimed off waivers by a team with an eye on the future. He is still young, can be optioned to the minors and comes with years of team control. However, if he clears waivers, he would not have enough service time to reject an outright assignment and would stay in the Cardinals organization.

Cardinals Activate Jack Flaherty

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3:39 pm: St. Louis announced that Flaherty has been activated from the IL, as expected. LeBlanc landed on the 10-day IL to create an active roster spot. To create space on the 40-man roster, St. Louis placed minor league right-hander Johan Quezada on the 60-day injured list earlier this week, notes Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (Twitter link).

10:50 am: After more than ten weeks on the injured list due to a severe oblique strain, Jack Flaherty is slated to make his return to the Cardinals tonight, as recently noted by multiple reports (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). He’ll take the mound to open the Cards’ series against the Royals. The Cardinals will need to make 26-man and 40-man roster moves to accommodate Flaherty’s reinstatement.

Flaherty told reporters last week that he planned to pitch during the just-completed series against the Pirates, but he’ll instead take the mound a day later. His return gives the Cards their best starter after a couple months of patching the rotation in piecemeal fashion, together with journeyman pickups and a heavy reliance on some young arms that may need more development time (e.g. Johan Oviedo).

Prior to his injury, Flaherty was in the midst of a strong bounceback effort following a down year in 2020. He’d made 11 starts, tallied 62 frames and pitched to a 2.90 ERA with better-than-average strikeout and walk rates (26.3 percent and 7.8 percent, respectively). He’s made three rehab starts and built up to as many as 75 pitches in his most recent outing.

Since Flaherty went on the injured list, Cardinals starters rank 17th in the Majors with a 4.54 ERA and 21st with a 4.71 FIP. Those numbers have actually improved recently with excellent work from the seemingly ageless Adam Wainwright and June signee Wade LeBlanc. However, LeBlanc just exited yesterday’s start with left elbow pain and is headed back to St. Louis for imaging work to evaluate the injury, per Katie Woo of The Athletic (Twitter link). The Cards also recently lost Kwang Hyun Kim to another injured list stint — this one for inflammation in his left elbow. Kim has twice missed time this season due to back troubles.

Flaherty’s return should pair him with Wainwright and deadline pickups J.A. Happ and Jon Lester in the rotation while the team awaits word on LeBlanc’s elbow and hopes for a swift return for Kim. It’s also possible that right-hander Miles Mikolas, who has made just one appearance in 2020-21 thanks to a series of forearm injuries, could return within the next week. He’s been progressing through a minor league rehab assignment of his own.

While the Cardinals’ pitching injuries and the questionable depth they carried into the season look to have sunk their division hopes — St. Louis is 11 games back from the division-leading Brewers — they’re still at least on the periphery of the NL Wild Card scene. The Cards are six and a half games back from the second Wild Card and would need to leapfrog each of the Braves, Mets, Reds and Padres in order to seize that spot.

That’s obviously a tall order, but it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility. The Cardinals play each of those clubs at least three times between now and season’s end, and they also have another seven games apiece against stripped-down Cubs and Pirates rosters. They’re a clear playoff long shot, but this is the healthiest their rotation has looked in months.

Cardinals Notes: LeBlanc, Carlson, Hudson

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The Cardinals are on the verge of reinstating Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas after both pitchers spent extended time on the injured list. Just as those two rejoin the rotation, St. Louis could be dealing with another loss on the starting staff. Veteran left-hander Wade LeBlanc left this afternoon’s start against the Pirates in the third inning after experiencing elbow pain. He’s now slated to undergo further testing to determine the issue’s severity, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

LeBlanc wasn’t the only Cardinals player to make an early exit from today’s contest. Rookie outfielder Dylan Carlson was removed with soreness in his right wrist. The 22-year-old has been playing through some pain in the area for a few days, according to Brenden Schaeffer of KMOV. He’s now slated to undergo an MRI.

The switch-hitting Carlson has been a bright spot in what’s overall been a bit of a disappointing season in St. Louis. A longtime top prospect, he struggled in his first crack at the majors last year but has somewhat quietly had a nice 2021 campaign. Carlson is hitting .261/.341/.419 over 478 plate appearances, logging a decent amount of action at all three outfield spots. Defensive metrics suggest he’s a better fit in the corner outfield than center — a sentiment public prospect evaluators have long shared — but he’s shown quite a bit of promise offensively.

Carlson’s approach at the plate has been particularly impressive for a player so young. He’s already one of the game’s more patient hitters, chasing just 25.8% of pitches outside the strike zone (league average is 31.1%). Yet he’s still been aggressive enough on offerings in the zone to do some damage, hitting twelve homers and showing the ability to hit to all fields. Carlson hasn’t necessarily produced at an eye-popping level, but he already looks like an above-average hitter and has certainly done enough to guarantee himself a regular role on the club for 2022 and beyond.

In better health news for the Cards, injured right-hander Dakota Hudson continues to progress in his rehab from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Goold writes that St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak was impressed with Hudson’s form after watching the 26-year-old throw this week. Goold reiterates that Hudson and the team remain optimistic about his chances to pitch in the big leagues this season.

Presumably, that’d come in short relief stints given his lack of time to build arm strength during a lengthy minor league rehab assignment, but any contribution from Hudson in 2021 would be a welcome development. Tommy John surgeries often require a recovery period of fourteen months or more. Hudson, who underwent the procedure at the end of last September, would be back in almost exactly one calendar year were to make it onto a big league mound. At 58-56, the Cardinals look unlikely to be serious factors in the postseason race. Nevertheless, getting Hudson back (if possible) could allow him to log a few innings and have a more or less regular offseason in preparation for a return to the rotation in 2022.

Cardinals Place Kwang Hyun Kim On 10-Day Injured List

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The Cardinals placed left-hander Kwang Hyun Kim on the 10-day injured list yesterday due to left elbow inflammation.  The placement is retroactive to August 8.  Right-hander Daniel Ponce de Leon was activated from his own 10-day IL stint after missing close to seven weeks with shoulder discomfort.

This is the third time Kim has visited the IL this season, following two previous absences caused by a bad back.  The southpaw has been dealing with a sore elbow for over a week, which led the Cards to give him some extra time between starts.  After Kim was touched up for five runs over 2 2/3 innings against the Indians on July 28, his next start was held off until August 7 — another less-than-successful outing, as Kim allowed two runs and threw 83 pitches over four innings against the Royals.

It isn’t known if Kim could return after just a 10-day break, or if his elbow issues will require more recovery time.  In the short term, St. Louis can fill the rotation spot with ace Jack Flaherty, who is expected to return from the IL this week.  Miles Mikolas is also getting closer to a return after spending almost the entire season on the injured list.

Despite all the injuries and only a 18.3% strikeout rate, Kim has been effective when he has been on the mound this season, posting a 3.36 ERA over 91 innings.  Now with 130 innings of Major League work to his name after two seasons, Kim has a 2.84 ERA but also with a 4.85 SIERA that reflects the lack of strikeouts and only a slightly above-average walk rate.  On the plus side, Kim is good at limiting hard contact and at keeping the ball on the ground (47.1% grounder rate), making him a particularly good fit on the defensively-strong Cardinals.

Another injury absence, however, won’t help Kim’s free agent stock heading into the offseason.  There was some trade buzz surrounding Kim heading into the trade deadline, though St. Louis ultimately opted against selling and made some modest rotation additions in J.A. Happ and Jon Lester.  Adam Wainwright , Kim, Happ, and Lester will all be free agents, while the Cardinals aren’t expected to exercise their $17MM club option on Carlos Martinez.  With all this rotation uncertainty heading into 2022, one would assume the Cardinals would have interest in re-signing Kim after his solid results of the last two years.

Latest On Flaherty, Mikolas

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  • “I’m going to pitch in Pittsburgh,” Jack Flaherty told Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other reporters, indicating that he plans to return from the 60-day IL during the Cardinals’ upcoming series with the Pirates from August 10-12.  A left oblique strain put Flaherty on the IL on June 1, leaving the Cards without their ace for a big chunk of the season.  Miles Mikolas is also tentatively scheduled to return for next weekend’s series against the Royals, as Mikolas is working through a minor league rehab assignment of his own.  Mikolas missed the entire 2020 season due to flexor tendon surgery, then made just one start in May before heading back to the IL due to forearm tightness.
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