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Cardinals To Select Brandon Dickson

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The Cardinals are planning to select reliever Brandon Dickson to the big league roster, manager Mike Shildt tells reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). Active rosters will expand from 26 to 28 tomorrow, but St. Louis will need to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate Dickson’s official promotion.

It’s the culmination of one of the most remarkable journeys in recent memory. Dickson was a starting pitcher early in his career, and he reached the majors with St. Louis in 2011. He made eight big league appearances between the next two seasons, allowing ten runs in 14 2/3 innings. After the 2012 campaign, the Cardinals released Dickson so he could pursue an opportunity with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

Dickson would spend the next eight seasons in NPB. After beginning his time with the Buffaloes as a starter, the right-hander was eventually transitioned into the closer’s role. Between 2019-20, Dickson pitched to a 3.15 ERA and returned to the U.S. this winter. He signed a minor league deal with the Cardinals in mid-June and earned a spot on the U.S. national team’s Olympic roster.

St. Louis assigned Dickson to Triple-A Memphis, where he’s made eleven appearances. He’s struggled in that hitter-friendly environment, serving up thirteen runs (eleven earned) over 10 1/3 frames. Nevertheless, the 36-year-old has sufficiently impressed St. Louis brass with his current form to earn his first big league look in nearly a decade.

Cardinals Place Andrew Miller On 10-Day Injured List

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The Cardinals have placed Andrew Miller on the 10-day injured list because of a left foot blister, per the team. This will be the second time Miller misses time because of a blister on his foot. He missed the entire month of May because of a similar injury. When healthy, he has a 4.94 ERA/4.54 FIP over 31 innings.

Kodi Whitley has been recalled from Triple-A to take Miller’s roster spot. Whitley has made 12 appearances with the big league club this year, giving up seven earned runs on seven hits and seven walks while striking out eight over 10 1/3 innings.

Additionally, Dakota Hudson will head to Palm Beach for a rehab assignment in Single-A, and Mark Saxon suggests Hudson could pitch out of the Cardinals bullpen soon. Hudson has been out for the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Cardinals would love to have a healthy Hudson in their rotation next season, but this year they will focus on working his arm back into game shape. Hudson’s one full season resulted in 174 2/3 innings of 3.35 ERA baseball back in 2019.

MLBTR Poll: What Should The Cardinals Do With Alex Reyes?

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The Cardinals rotation has featured a series of guest stars and few regulars this season, with 12 different pitchers taking a turn and only 40-year-old Adam Wainwright logging enough innings to qualify. As a group, they’re 13th in the Majors in terms of starters’ innings, and 12th league-wide by measure of ERA (4.02 ERA). By measure of FIP, however, their 4.46 FIP ranks 20th in the game, and if we look ahead to 2022, there’s more than enough uncertainty to make nervous thinkers in Redbird Nation fret.

The five guys currently taking hill turns for manager Mike Shildt have an average age of 36.5, so it’s not a sprightly group. Except for Miles Mikolas, they’re all heading towards free agency at year’s end, too. In fact, of those 12 players who have started a game in 2021, six will be free agents, and John Gant has already been dealt to Minnesota. All of which is to say, the Cardinals have their work cut out for them before Opening Day 2022.

The cupboard isn’t barren, however. For starters, there will be the annual Wainwright retirement question. But with Yadier Molina coming back for one final season, isn’t it almost too perfect for Waino to do anything but follow suit?

Jack Flaherty raises the ceiling of the group, and they’ve made clear that priority one is getting their ace ready for next season, even if that means shutting it down the rest of this year. Dakota Hudson will be an interesting wildcard as he returns from Tommy John. Mikolas is also trying to get healthy, having made just three starts this season. The Cards are on the hook to pay him $17MM in each of the next two seasons, so if the 33-year-old can get healthy, he should have a rotation spot.

Not to mention, any of Jake Woodford, Johan Oviedo, T.J. Zeuch, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, or Angel Rondon could be given a look. There are definitely arms floating around in the organization that could ramp up to earn rotation minutes.

But there’s another familiar name that’s going to be given a chance to win a rotation spot: Alex Reyes.

Reyes turns 27-years-old tomorrow, and the former top prospect is in the midst of an establishing campaign. In what’s really been his first full season in the bigs, Reyes has a 2.50 ERA/3.90 FIP over 57 2/3 innings. His usage has certainly been consistent: of his 55 appearances, 50 of them have finished the game, a mark that leads the Majors. Simply put, he’s gone from a high-ceiling rotation question mark to an All-Star closer.

But next season, Reyes will follow Carlos Martinez in the Cardinal tradition of yo-yo-ing organizational expectations from starter to closer and back again. Let’s be clear, for this season, Reyes is the Cardinals closer and that’s the end of it. But next year is a different story, said Shildt on MLB Network Radio. Reyes will be given the opportunity to compete for a rotation spot in 2022.

Reyes has maintained a starter’s arsenal in the bullpen, throwing his fastball, slider, and sinker with almost equal usage rates. He’s been even more diverse against lefties, mixing in an occasional curveball or change-up as needed. His heater has averaged 96.5 mph, which is right around what he was averaging when he first came up as a starter. It might be, then, that he’d lose a tick or two if spread out to a starter’s workload.

The concern relates to his injury history and whether or not the Cards should risk losing another valuable bullpen arm by risking a move to the rotation. There’s more upside in the rotation, of course, but there’s something to be said for letting Reyes stay where he’s been successful. After all, if there’s a desire to get him more time on the mound, the Cards could ramp up his usage with multi-inning outings instead of making a full-scale switch to the rotation.

However many innings Reyes finishes with this season will be his most in a single year since the 2016 campaign. He threw between 100 and 110 innings from 2014 to 2016, which is pretty typical for a young arm on the rise. Whether one healthy season is enough to make Reyes ready for that kind of workload again is unclear.

As a starter, of course, the hope would be that he’d surpass even those totals. That said, it’s looking like only Wainwright and Kwang Hyun Kim will accumulate more than 100 innings from the Cards’ rotation this season, so there’s space to make an impact even without posting an 150-inning season.

Even tempering expectations, the Cards could expect 40-50 more innings from Reyes if he can stay healthy in the rotation. Considering his injury history, however, it’s tempting to take the money on the table now and settle in with Reyes as the closer of the next few years.

Of course, Cardinal closers haven’t been any more immune to arm injuries than their starters have, so there’s an argument to be made that whichever course they take with Reyes, there’s risk. If that’s the case, why not pursue the upside of a rotation slot?

From the beginning of the year, the Cardinals have maintained that this season would be an opportunity to inch Reyes’ workload closer to that of a starter and look ahead next season. He’s been much closer to a traditional reliever than the multi-inning firearm we might have expected, but he’s still likely to finish with something close to 70 innings.

The last consideration is timeline. Even though this will be Reyes’ first full season in the Majors, he has just two years of arbitration remaining, so it might be now or never to see if Reyes can be a starter before he hits the open market. Two years as a starter might make Reyes too pricey for the Cards, but it might also give them enough certainty to lock him up at the right rate, knowing he could be a starter moving forward.

Wainwright believes Reyes can make the jump, per Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who provides this quote from Reyes about Wainwright: “He always looks at me and tells me, ‘Hey man, you’re a starter. You know I was there, and I was able to do it. I believe you can. Just those words of encouragement, they make me feel good. And also, they give me the thought. Someone like Adam Wainwright, who has had such a long career here and has been pitching for so long, if he thinks like that of me?”

Let’s give the St. Louis brass some help and point them in the right direction.

(poll link for app users)

Martinez, LeBlanc, Helsley, Flaherty Likely Out For The Season

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  • While we’re here, we might as well check in with Jack Flaherty, who is also questionable to return this season. The Cardinals are putting him through a series of assessments now. What matters most is making sure he’s healthy for 2022, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Same story for Ryan Helsley, who will have arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and look ahead to next season.

Molina: 2022 “Will Be My Final Season”

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If there was any doubt after yesterday’s one-year contract extension, Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina confirmed in a press conference today that he plans to retire after the 2022 season. “Yes, yes it will be my final season,” Molina plainly stated (Twitter link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).

That was the expectation the moment the deal was finalized, as president of baseball operations John Mozeliak even called the 2022 campaign Molina’s final season in the team’s press release announcing the extension. Still, it’s notable to hear the player himself publicly confirm as much.

Molina, 39, is well past his peak production but is still delivering offense that falls roughly in line with that of a league-average catcher. He’s batting .259/.304/.375 with eight homers and 16 doubles so far in 2021, walking at a 5.7 percent clip and still striking out at a 15.7 percent rate that is well south of the league average. His 43 percent caught-stealing rate behind the dish is among the best in the game.

It was strange this past offseason to consider the possibility of Molina playing somewhere other than St. Louis, but he reached the free-agent market for the first time in his illustrious career and unsurprisingly drew interest from several clubs. He’ll avoid any speculation of playing for a new club this time around, cementing himself as a lifelong Cardinal with the extension and today’s announcement.

Notably, as Cardinals fans now turn their attention to Adam Wainwright, Molina touched on the subject of his longtime teammate’s future (Twitter link via Zachary Silver of MLB.com). Molina noted that Wainwright lobbied heavily for him to return to St. Louis last offseason. “Now, it’s my turn,” Molina said in reference to Wainwright, adding that he’d “love to finish my career with him.”

Wainwright is also playing the 2021 season on a one-year contract, and he’s said in the past that he’ll need to discuss the matter with his family before determining whether he’ll continue his own career into the 2022 campaign. Through 162 2/3 innings, Wainwright has a 3.10 ERA, three complete games and a shutout. He’ll turn 40 next Monday.

Cardinals Place Jack Flaherty On Injured List

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10:38am: The Cardinals have formally placed Flaherty on the 10-day injured list and recalled right-handed reliever Junior Fernandez from Triple-A Memphis in a corresponding move.

10:12am: The Cardinals are placing right-hander Jack Flaherty back on the 10-day injured list, manager Mike Shildt announced to reporters during today’s pregame session (Twitter link via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). Flaherty, who only just returned from a two-month absence due to a severe oblique strain, has now been diagnosed with a strain in his right shoulder. Shildt indicated that imaging was “mostly negative,” suggesting that there’s no major structural issue in the shoulder.

There’s no timeline on Flaherty’s return just yet, but Shildt indicated that the club can’t firmly rule out the possibility that the talented young right-hander’s season is over. There are just under six weeks remaining on the regular-season calendar, and Flaherty will need some form of down period to allow the strain to heal before he can resume throwing and build back up.

Flaherty made just three starts between IL stints, and his velocity was down noticeably last night before departing the game. He told reporters after the contest that he began feeling “less comfortable as the game went on” and voiced frustration over having another start shortened by a physical ailment (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).

With Flaherty now back on the shelf for a yet-to-be-determined period of time, the Cards are again operating at less than full strength in the rotation — just as they have throughout the entire summer. Kwang Hyun Kim recently returned from the injured list but was slated to work out of the bullpen; it’s at least possible that they’ll shift him back into a starting role now that Flaherty is out. Elsewhere in the rotation, the Cards have Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, J.A. Happ and Jon Lester. For now, that group will lead the charge as the Cards attempt to close a 4.5-game deficit in the NL Wild Card standings. The division is effectively out of reach, as Milwaukee has a commanding 13-game advantage over St. Louis (and an 8.5-game lead over second-place Cincinnati).

Flaherty has been excellent when healthy this season, as one would expect. The 25-year-old carries a 3.08 ERA, a 26.1 percent strikeout rate, a 7.7 percent walk rate and a 38.6 percent ground-ball rate through 76 innings thus far.

Cardinals Reinstate Dylan Carlson

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  • The Cardinals welcomed outfielder Dylan Carlson back from the injured list today. The 22-year-old missed just under two weeks with a right wrist issue. Carlson has had a nice rookie season, hitting .261/.341/.419 while seeing action at all three outfield spots. With Harrison Bader healthy, Carlson can stick in a corner role for which he’s better suited. St. Louis trails the Reds by four and a half games for the National League’s final playoff spot, so continued above-average offensive output from Carlson would be a boon if the Cards are to make a surprise playoff push over the season’s final few weeks.

Cardinals Sign Yadier Molina To One-Year Extension

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The Cardinals announced they’ve agreed to a one-year contract extension with Yadier Molina. The ten-time All-Star will remain in St. Louis for the 2022 season on a $10MM salary. Molina is a client of MDR Sports Management.

It’s not surprising the two sides were able to line up on terms, as they were known to be in extension discussions last week. Molina was believed to be seeking a one-year deal that matches or tops the $9MM salary on which he’s playing out the 2021 campaign, and he’s succeeded in landing exactly that. Molina didn’t sign that deal until this past January, and he’d been vocal about wanting to avoid lingering on the free agent market again this time around.

Molina’s no longer the MVP-caliber player he was at his peak, but he’s still a productive regular catcher even at age-39. This season, he’s hitting .259/.304/.376 with eight homers across 365 plate appearances, not far off the .268/.310/.388 slash line he compiled between 2019-20. That’s below-average offensive production overall, but it’s still fine work when considering the toll catching takes on players. Backstops have compiled just a .228/.307/.391 mark around the league. Molina’s offensive output is around par with the league average at the position.

That’s without considering his contributions on the other side of the ball. Molina is regarded as perhaps the best defensive catcher of his generation. As is the case with his bat, Molina’s glove has fallen off somewhat with age, but he’s still unquestionably a plus behind the dish. Molina has cut down seventeen of forty attempted base-stealers this season, a 42.5% rate that’s far better than the 24.4% league average.

In addition to neutralizing the running game, Molina has a reputation as one of the game’s best at the aspects of catching that are difficult or impossible to quantify. His once-elite framing metrics have fallen to around league average, but he still checks in as a viable receiver. And the Cardinals no doubt believe Molina brings intangible value from a leadership perspective to the pitching staff and clubhouse.

While Molina should still bring quite a bit to the table next season, it’s apparent his legacy as one of the best players in franchise history plays into the front office’s eagerness to keep him off the open market. No active player in MLB has been with their current team longer than Molina, who debuted with St. Louis in June 2004. The nine-time Gold Glove award winner was an integral part of the Cardinals’ 2006 and 2011 World Series teams. There’s plenty of reason for the club not wanting to risk a repeat of last offseason’s stalemate.

Molina recently hinted that next year could be the last of his illustrious career, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak referred to 2022 as Molina’s “final season” in the press release accompanying the announcement of today’s extension. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link) notes that the current expectation for both Molina and the Cardinals is that 2022 will indeed be his final year as a player. If that ultimately proves to be the case, he would retire as the rare one-franchise star.

With Molina wrapped up, the Cardinals figure to turn to Adam Wainwright, another impending free agent who has been in St. Louis for ages. Wainwright made his debut in 2005 and has led the St. Louis rotation for a good portion of the past fifteen years. Despite turning 40 years old this month, Wainwright has been one of the better pitchers in the National League this season. Assuming he wants to keep playing beyond this year, the Cardinals would have every reason to look to hammer out an extension with Wainwright as well.

The Molina extension will push the Cardinals’ estimated 2022 player payroll just north of $90MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Nolan Arenado ($35MM if he doesn’t opt out), Paul Goldschmidt ($25.33MM), Miles Mikolas ($17MM) and Paul DeJong ($6.17MM) join Molina as players with notable guaranteed contracts on the books. St. Louis will also have to cover arbitration raises for Jack Flaherty, Harrison Bader, Alex Reyes, Dakota Hudson, and Tyler O’Neill, among others. The Cardinals opened the 2021 season with an estimated $163MM payroll.

St. Louis could look to address the rotation and middle infield this winter. Catcher, where Andrew Knizner has struggled in limited action as Molina’s understudy, would’ve been a question mark in the unlikely event Molina went elsewhere. It seems the Cardinals are prepared to roll with a Molina-Knizner pairing again next season, and top prospect Iván Herrera could be worked into the mix midseason with an eye towards 2023. The lion’s share of playing time behind the plate at Busch Stadium will fall to Molina, as it has for the past sixteen years.

Katie Woo of the Athletic first reported the agreement and its terms.

Kwang-hyun Kim Activated To Work Out Of Cardinals’ Bullpen

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The Cardinals are activating left-hander Kwang-hyun Kim from the 10-day injured list before this afternoon’s game against the Pirates, manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). Reliever Junior Fernández is being optioned to Triple-A Memphis in a corresponding move.

Kim is moving to the bullpen, according to Shildt, who noted that the 32-year-old could immediately work as many as 45 pitches in multi-inning relief. Kim has missed a little less than two weeks with inflammation in his throwing elbow, and it seems St. Louis doesn’t want to run the risk of overworking him by plugging him back into the rotation. That means the Cardinals will continue to rely on Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jon Lester and J.A. Happ every fifth day.

The bullpen role will be an unfamiliar one for Kim, who has started 26 of his 27 appearances since signing with the Cards before the 2020 season. Kim’s work as a starting pitcher has been excellent, as he has a 2.84 ERA over 130 MLB innings in spite of a below-average 17.5% strikeout rate. He’s thrived by generally avoiding walks (8%) and inducing ground-balls (47.1%) while limiting hard contact. If he can continue to have that level of success in his new role, he’d be a key bullpen piece for a Cardinals team that trails the Reds and Padres by four and a half games in the race for the National League’s final playoff spot.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

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