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Jack Flaherty Expected To Return Friday

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The Cardinals, surging toward a playoff berth with a prodigious September winning streak, will get another boost to their postseason hopes this weekend. Opening Day starter Jack Flaherty is expected to be activated from the injured list to start the second game of Friday’s doubleheader, manager Mike Shildt told reporters tonight (Twitter links via Katie Woo of The Athletic). Flaherty isn’t fully stretched and will be more of an opener than a traditional starter, but his return is a notable development for a Cardinals club that now finds itself with a commanding lead on the second Wild Card spot in the National League.

Flaherty missed more than two months this summer with a severe oblique strain, and his return to the club lasted just three games before he went back on the shelf with a shoulder strain on Aug. 25. He’ll be returning without a minor league rehab assignment, though Flaherty has been throwing bullpen sessions as he works back toward the big league roster. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat tweeted this past weekend that Flaherty had thrown around 30 fastballs in a recent session, and Shildt said just yesterday that Flaherty had warmed up in the ’pen before throwing 15 or so pitches to live hitters on the field (video link via Bally Sports Midwest).

It’d be a surprise to see Flaherty go more than a couple of innings, but Friday’s outing could help to build him up a bit more for a lengthier outing sometime next week. He may not be fully stretched out by the time a theoretical postseason series would start, but Flaherty would presumably be a multi-inning option in some capacity early on — with a chance to build up further should the Cardinals make a deep run on the heels of their recent momentum.

It’s been another strong year for Flaherty when he’s been healthy enough to take the mound. The 25-year-old owns a 3.08 ERA with sharp strikeout and walk rates — 26.1 percent and 7.7 percent, respectively — through 76 innings so far on the season.

In similarly encouraging news for Cards fans, Shildt revealed in tonight’s media session that Dakota Hudson was scratched from a scheduled rehab start in Triple-A Memphis in case the club needs to activate him from the injured list over the next 48 hours (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).

Hudson, who owns a 3.17 ERA in 241 big league innings dating back to his 2018 debut, hasn’t pitched this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery late in the 2020 campaign. He was viewed as a long shot to make it back this year, but he’s now pitched 18 2/3 innings of 0.96 ERA ball across three minor league levels. Hudson pitched five innings in each of his two most recent outings and tossed 68 pitches on Sept. 17 in his lone appearance at the Triple-A level so far. Given that workload, he’d seemingly be an option to make a more conventional spot start and work on a pitch count, if needed, although he could certainly work as a multi-inning relief option as well.

Cardinals Release Brandon Dickson

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TODAY: The Cardinals announced that Dickson has been released.

SEPTEMBER 8: The Cardinals announced that reliever Brandon Dickson has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Memphis. St. Louis designated him for assignment earlier this week.

Dickson rather remarkably made it back to the majors as a September call-up last week. The 36-year-old logged his first big league action since 2012 on Wednesday after spending the 2013-20 seasons in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Dickson’s two big league outings didn’t go as he’d intended, however, as he served up three runs on five hits in two innings.

The right-hander will now return to Memphis, where he made eleven appearances earlier in the year. Dickson only posted a 9.58 ERA over 10 1/3 innings there, coughing up four home runs in that limited time. While his return to affiliated ball hasn’t yet yielded quality results, Dickson earned his way back with a strong body of work in Japan, as well as 3 1/3 innings of one-run ball for the U.S. National Team at this year’s Summer Olympics.

Poll: Who Will Be The NL’s Second Wild Card Team?

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The Giants and Dodgers have both booked their tickets to the 2021 playoffs, though it remains to be seen which club will be NL West champions and which will have to walk the one-game tightrope that is the wild card game.  While the identity of the first NL wild card entry is an either/or situation, the battle for that second wild card slot is still completely wide-open with less than three weeks remaining in the regular season.

The Cardinals held a one-game lead in the standings heading into today’s action, and since the Cards aren’t playing today, they’ll still retain at least a half-game edge when they resume play tomorrow in a crucial three-game series against the Padres.  St. Louis wasn’t even a .500 team (53-55) on August 5, but the team has since gone 23-14 to re-establish itself as a contender.  Both Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill have been on fire at the plate since that August 5 date, while Adam Wainwright has continued to turn back the clock with an excellent season.  The Cardinals were criticized for a lack of big moves at the trade deadline, though new additions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ have been solid enough to help stabilize the rotation.  Following the three games with San Diego, the Cardinals’ remaining schedule is entirely against the Brewers and Cubs.

The Padres enter that pivotal St. Louis series going in the opposite direction.  For much of the season, it looked like both NL wild card slots would come from the West division, as San Diego battled alongside the Giants and Dodgers for supremacy.  However, San Diego’s 22-30 record since the All-Star break has left the Padres battling just to get into the postseason.  It has been more or less a team-wide funk over those 52 games, as the Padres rank 24th in baseball in both wRC+ (92) and pitching fWAR (2.5) in the second half, though the rotation at least has the excuse of multiple injuries.  It doesn’t help that the Padres also have a very tough remaining schedule — all of their remaining games are against the Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, and Braves.

Even after today’s 1-0 victory over the Pirates, the Reds still have just five wins in their last 17 games, stumbling back in the standings after a nice surge in late July and early August.  Speaking of scheduling, Cincinnati hasn’t done well to take advantage of some weaker opponents, as that 17-game window has included losing series to such weaker opponents as the Marlins, Cubs, Tigers, and Pirates (and a 2-4 record against the Cardinals).  With 10 remaining games against the Pirates and Nationals, the Reds’ schedule still offers plenty of opportunity to bank wins, and the impending return of Jesse Winker should be a major boost to the Cincinnati lineup.

The Phillies still have a shot at the NL East even if they can’t capture the wild card, but after going 2-6 in their last eight games, the bottom line is that Philadelphia needs to get hot in a hurry.  The Phils begin a three-game set against the Mets tomorrow and face the Braves in a three-game series at the end of September, but the schedule is otherwise not difficult on paper — 10 games against the Orioles, Pirates, and Marlins.  While the bullpen and the back of the rotation continue to be an issue for the Phillies, MVP candidate Bryce Harper is doing his best to try and carry this inconsistent team into the playoffs.

The old “Miracle Mets” nickname might need to be dusted off if 72-75 New York can somehow squeak into the playoffs as either a wild card or as the NL East champions.  The Mets are five games out of the division lead and 5.5 games out of the wild card entering today, leaving them with essentially no margin for error the rest of the way.  Losing this series with the Phillies might all but officially end the Mets’ chances, but nine games against the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox still loom on the upcoming schedule.

Just to cover our bases, the NL East-leading Braves will also be included in the poll just in case the Phillies or Mets do steal the division.  (Though one would imagine that in that scenario, the Braves would have to slump badly enough to take them out of wild card contention as well.)  Following a scorching hot 16-2 stretch in August, Atlanta is only 8-12 over its last 20 games, which is just enough to make things interesting in September.  The Braves end their season with six games against the Phillies and Mets, and also have a ten-game road trip featuring six games against the Padres and Giants sandwiched around a four-game set with the cellar-dwelling Diamondbacks.

Who do you think will capture that second wild card slot? (Link to poll for app users)

Carpenter: “I Definitely Want To Play” In 2022

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Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter is in the midst of the worst season of his career at the plate and will turn 36 in November, but the three-time All-Star made clear this week that he’s hoping for a chance to right the ship in 2022. The Cardinals are a lock to buy out his $18.5MM club option, but Carpenter tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch he’s not currently thinking about calling it quits. “I don’t know what the future holds for me as far as what [the Cardinals’] plans are, what the plans for me are,” says Carpenter. “I definitely want to play.”

The question then becomes one of whether Carpenter will be able return to the Cards at a (much) lower price or find an opportunity with another club. Carpenter has just 63 plate appearances since the All-Star break, and 33 of those have come as a pinch-hitter. He’s hitless since Aug. 7 — a span of 35 plate appearances — with five walks and 13 strikeouts mixed in along the way. His season batting line checks in at .169/.304/.275, and his 32.6 percent strikeout rate is a career-high.

The downturn at the plate has been pronounced but also isn’t entirely out of the blue. Rather, Carpenter has been in a steady decline since a 36-homer campaign in 2018 that netted him some stray MVP votes down the ballot and a ninth-place finish overall. He followed that with a down year in 2019 but was at least roughly average at the plate. He then hit .186/.325/.314 with 28.4 percent strikeout rate in 169 trips to the plate last season.

Over the past two seasons, Carpenter has batted just .176/.313/.292 in 396 plate appearances. His role with the Cardinals has diminished both due to his struggles and due to the presence of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Tommy Edman around the St. Louis infield. All three players will be back with St. Louis in 2022, and even a bench role might not be much of a consideration for the Cards. Edmundo Sosa has outplayed Carpenter across the board and offers more versatility in the infield. Carpenter hasn’t logged a single inning in the outfield since 2014. If a universal designated hitter is implemented, there’ll surely be calls — at least from fans — for an Albert Pujols farewell tour at that position.

It’s not out of the question that Carpenter could find another role with a new organization, however, particularly if the National League designated hitter does come into play. His 13.7 percent walk rate remains outstanding — tied for 20th-best among the 330 big league hitters with at least 200 plate appearances. Carpenter is still hitting the ball hard, too. Of the 386 hitters with at least 100 batted ball events in 2021, Carpenter is tied for 71st in average exit velocity, ranks 59th in barrel rate and sits 135th in hard-hit rate (i.e. batted balls at 95 mph or higher). It’s not a dominant profile, but it’s one that certainly looks like it should produce more than a .169 batting average and .275 slugging percentage.

Of course, Carpenter is done in both by the infrequency of his contact and by the pull-happy nature of the balls he does put into play. He’s highly susceptible to the shift, which makes his nearly 77 percent pull rate on grounders immensely problematic.  Carpenter has tried to counteract that by focusing on elevating the ball, but he isn’t pulling the ball in the air like he did during his big 2018 season. In terms of exit velocity, launch angle and hard-hit percentage, Carpenter’s 2018 and 2021 seasons are strikingly similar. However, just 16 percent of Carpenter’s fly-balls have been pulled this season — down from 29 percent in 2018. Nearly 54 percent of Carpenter’s flies are going up the middle, which at least partially explains the drop from a 19.1 percent homer-to-flyball rate in 2018 to this year’s 5.4 percent mark.

Other teams will surely draw their own theories about Carpenter’s decline and drum up some plans of attack to remedy the problems. He’s unlikely to rediscover his 2018 form thanks to the huge uptick in strikeouts, but Carpenter’s walk rate, hard-contact profile and overall track record could still seemingly generate some interest elsewhere around the league.

That’s particularly possible if, as Carpenter himself puts it to Goold, he’s willing to “do whatever I have to do to continue playing.” It’s possible that with his recent struggles, Carpenter won’t find much in the way of guaranteed big league offers. But, if he’s willing to head to Spring Training on a minor league pact, a team seeking some corner infield depth and/or a veteran left-handed bench bat might be willing to take a speculative look.

Minor MLB Transactions: 9/12/21

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Some minor moves from around the league:

  • The Marlins have released left-hander Ross Detwiler, according to the MLB.com transactions page. Detwiler had been designated for assignment on Tuesday. The release is largely a formality, as Detwiler had the ability to reject an outright assignment. The 35-year-old will now see if there are any offers available for him on the open market. He would not be eligible to appear in the playoffs with any new club, since it is after the August 31st deadline. But he could potentially help a team absorb some innings down the stretch. In 45 1/3 innings this year, he has an elevated ERA of 4.96. However, his 28% strikeout rate is a career high, though that’s also come with a career-low ground ball rate of 39.7%.
  • The Cardinals reinstated minor-league righty Johan Quezada from the 60-day injured list, according to a team announcement. Right-hander Junior Fernandez is going the other direction, landing himself on the 60-day injured list, according to Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat. Quezada was acquired from the Phillies in the offseason but hasn’t been able to pitch much this year due to injuries. The 27-year-old has thrown 16 2/3 innings between the Florida Complex League and Double-A. As for Fernandez, this IL placement will end his season. He racked up a lot of mileage shuttling between Triple-A and MLB this year, being recalled and optioned five times. He’ll finish the season with an ERA of 5.66 over 20 2/3 innings in the big leagues, along with identical strikeout and walk rates of 15.5%. In 14 1/3 Triple-A innings, his ERA is higher, 6.28, but with much better strikeout and walk rates of 33.3% and 7.6%, respectively.

NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Lester, Flaherty, Pirates, Brault

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Jon Lester is one of the most decorated active players in Major League Baseball, but his career could be nearing its end, per MLB.com’s Jeff Jones (via Twitter). Lester was evasive when asked about potentially returning to the Cardinals in 2022, implying that he could even consider hanging up his spikes. The five-time All-Star and three-time World Series champion has 198 career wins and a 3.65 ERA/3.77 FIP in 2,218 innings across 16 seasons, but he’s been little more than a back-end starter for the past three seasons for the Cubs, Nationals, and Cardinals. The 37-year-old southpaw has a 4.75 ERA/5.41 FIP in 119 1/3 innings this year.

  • In other Cardinals news, Jack Flaherty’s status remains up in the air as he tries to make his way back to the Majors before the end of the season. If he does make it back, it’s likely to be in a relief role, per The Athletic’s Katie Woo (via Twitter). That’s been the story for some time now, though it’s especially true as time runs out on the 2021 season. The Triple-A season runs longer than usual this year, Woo notes, which does give Flaherty slightly more time for a rehab assignment, should he be ready.
  • Steven Brault left his start yesterday after just two innings due to what’s being described as “tightness” in his throwing ar, per Mike Persak of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (via Twitter). The 29-year-old has made just seven starts on the year with a 5.86 ERA/4.60 FIP in 27 2/3 innings.

Quick Hits: Pujols, Harvey, Bundy, Anderson

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The idea of Albert Pujols playing one final season in a Cardinals uniform always seemed a bit fanciful, considering that Paul Goldschmidt now occupies first base in St. Louis, and that Pujols’ dropoff in production created doubt that he would even play beyond the 2021 season.  However, Pujols has had a bit of a revival as a specialist against left-handed pitching, crushing southpaws to the tune of a .302/.336/.635 slash line and 13 home runs over 134 plate appearances this season.

As Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, signing Pujols in 2022 has some baseball value to a Cardinals team that may have a DH spot to work with in next year’s lineup.  That is on top of the natural symbolism of bringing Pujols back for what would be his 22nd — and quite possibly final — MLB season in what Yadier Molina has already announced will be his own final season.  If Adam Wainwright also re-signs with the team and decides to hang it up next winter (which is no sure thing given how well Wainwright continues to pitch), the 2022 season will carry a storybook feel for an entire era of Cardinals baseball, as well as a renewed charge towards another title.

More from around baseball…

  • The Orioles placed Matt Harvey on the 10-day injured list due to inflammation in his right knee.  O’s manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including BaltimoreBaseball.com’s Rich Dubroff) that Harvey will undergo testing on the knee, and it isn’t yet known if the veteran right-hander will be able to pitch again this season.  After signing a minor league deal with the Orioles in the offseason, Harvey ended up spending the entire year on Baltimore’s big league roster, and the oft-injured righty has tossed 127 2/3 innings over 28 starts.  That is the silver lining amidst an otherwise tough season results-wise, as Harvey has a 6.27 ERA/4.84 SIERA and one of the lower (16.7%) strikeout rates in the league, not to mention some poor hard-hit ball numbers.
  • Dylan Bundy is “very confident” that he’ll be able to return to the Angels before the season is through, the right-hander told The Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher and other reporters.  Wednesday saw Bundy throw his first bullpen session since being placed on the 10-day IL with a shoulder strain back on August 25, and Bundy said the plan is for another bullpen on Saturday.  It remains to be seen if Bundy will be able to build up enough strength to make it back, or if he has already thrown his last pitch as an Angel, considering Bundy is a free agent this winter.  “As far as free agency, the only thing I’m thinking about is not being on the IL at the end of the year,” Bundy said.  Bundy has struggled to a 6.06 ERA/4.55 SIERA over 90 2/3 innings,
  • “I don’t have a lot of conversations with them on that front,” Brian Anderson told MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola and other reporters about extension talks with the Marlins.  General manager Kim Ng said last December, soon after her hiring, that she wanted a season to personally evaluate Anderson before deciding on a potential extension.  By that standard, Anderson hasn’t done much to impress, hitting only .249/.337/.378 and being limited to 264 plate appearances in an injury-riddled year.  Anderson is currently considering multiple options in regards to an ongoing shoulder problem, and surgery is a possibility, with Anderson prioritizing playing as close to a full season as possible in 2022.  The Marlins control Anderson’s rights through the 2023 season, so an extension could still be in the cards if he is able to recover and get back to his old form next year.

Wade LeBlanc To Undergo Elbow Procedure

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The Cardinals have shut left-hander Wade LeBlanc down for the remainder of the season, manager Mike Shildt announced to reporters Thursday (Twitter link via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). He’s expected to undergo some type of procedure to address the elbow pain that has sidelined him, though Shildt was not able to provide specifics. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that LeBlanc is still exploring options. Shildt noted that LeBlanc, a pending free agent, is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Originally signed back in June with the rotation in shambles, LeBlanc was viewed as little more than a flier on a veteran stopgap at the time. However, he emerged as much more than that, not only providing steady innings but giving the Cardinals his best work since the 2018 season.

LeBlanc, 37, appeared in a dozen games for St. Louis — four relief outings and eight starts — and put together 42 1/3 innings of 3.61 ERA ball. A middling 12.2 percent strikeout rate and 8.5 percent walk rate didn’t inspire much confidence in his ability to sustain that pace, but the innings he provided are in the books and came at a desperately needed time for the Cards.

Shaky strikeout-to-walk profile notwithstanding, LeBlanc’s solid showing in St. Louis ought to earn him another opportunity in 2022, even with some uncertainty regarding his health. An exact timeline on his recovery won’t be known until LeBlanc and the doctors he’s consulting pin down the extent of the procedure he’ll need, but if he’s expected to be ready come Spring Training, it’s easy to envision multiple clubs showing interest on a minor league pact. He’d be a fine depth option for the Cardinals in that regard, and he’s clearly already made a nice impression on the organization.

With LeBlanc out for the remainder of the season and Jack Flaherty again on the shelf with a shoulder strain, the Cardinals will continue relying on Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jon Lester and J.A. Happ atop the rotation. Lefty Kwang Hyun Kim and right-handers Jake Woodford and Daniel Ponce de Leon are among the other options to start games down the stretch for a Cardinals club that is buried in the NL Central but sits just three and a half games back of the second Wild Card spot in the National League.

Adam Wainwright Intends To Pitch In 2022

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The Cardinals have gotten fantastic work from Adam Wainwright for the bulk of his career, and that’s again been the case in 2021. Despite having just turned 40 years old, the veteran right-hander has been one of the better pitchers in the National League. With no signs of diminishing effectiveness, Wainwright intends to return for the 2022 season, he tells Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (Twitter link).

Wainwright was a multi-time All-Star and Cy Young award contender at his peak from 2009-14, but he looked to have lost some effectiveness in the immediate aftermath of an April 2015 Achilles tear. The veteran had his worst four seasons from 2016-19, looking as if he’d settled in as more a competent back-of-the-rotation arm than the ace-caliber hurler he’d been earlier in his career.

That changed last season, when Wainwright posted a 3.15 ERA over 65 2/3 innings. Because of the truncated nature of the 2020 campaign, it seemed easy to write that level of performance off as a sample size blip and expect Wainwright to return to something closer to the cumulative 4.58 ERA he’d managed over the prior four seasons. Even the Cardinals seemed a bit apprehensive about buying completely into Wainwright’s 2020 resurgence, as he re-signed on a lower-cost $8MM guarantee last winter.

It’s impossible to dismiss Wainwright now, though, as he’s been excellent over a full season’s worth of work. He owns a 2.91 ERA across 176 innings, the sixteenth-lowest mark among the 104 pitchers with 100+ innings pitched. Wainwright’s 22.6% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk percentage aren’t far off his best marks in those regards, and he’s induced ground-balls at a solid 46.8% clip. While he doesn’t have overpowering raw stuff, Wainwright has generally succeeded at avoiding damaging contact with pinpoint command of his sinker and more liberal usage of his signature curveball, as Ben Clemens of FanGraphs recently explored.

Wainwright is again scheduled to reach free agency this offseason, although it’s hard to envision him landing anywhere other than St. Louis. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported last week that the club intended to present a one-year extension offer to Wainwright in the near future. And after bringing back franchise catcher Yadier Molina for one final run in 2022, it stands to reason the St. Louis front office is equally motivated to work out an agreement to keep Wainwright in the fold for the seventeenth consecutive season.

Cardinals Designate Brandon Dickson For Assignment

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The Cardinals announced Monday that they’ve designated right-hander Brandon Dickson for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster for lefty Andrew Miller, who has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list.

It was a brief big league return for Dickson, who was selected to the Cardinals’ roster last week and made his first Major League appearance since 2012. The Cardinals are the only Major League organization Dickson has ever known, but he was away from the club for nearly a decade, as he spent the 2013-20 seasons pitching for the Orix Buffaloes in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He also won a Silver Medal pitching for Team USA in the Olympics earlier this summer.

Dickson, 36, pitched a total of two innings with the Cards in his return effort and has only 16 2/3 Major League innings to his name. He has a solid 3.72 ERA in parts of four career seasons in Triple-A and was a rock-solid arm in Japan, pitching to a combined 3.32 earned run average in just shy of 900 innings with the Buffaloes, for whom he started 94 games and also made 121 relief appearances. The Cardinals can now either place Dickson on outright waivers or release him within the next few days.

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