The Rays Have Some Roster Decisions On The Horizon
The Rays’ decision to waive C.J. Cron on the heels of a 30-homer campaign in the offseason raised plenty of eyebrows — particularly when it became apparent that the plan to replace him was to entrust the bulk of first base/designated hitter duties to Ji-Man Choi, Yandy Diaz and reclamation project Avisail Garcia. To this point in the season, that trio has been reasonably productive.
Through 294 plate appearances, Choi has batted .257/.348/.410 with nine homers, nine doubles and a triple. He’s walked at a healthy 11.4 percent clip against a 20.4 percent strikeout rate and done so while playing for less than $1MM as a pre-arbitration player. Up until recently, Choi was even more productive. The endpoint here is arbitrary, admittedly, but Choi carried a .287/.363/.467 line as recently as June 14. Since that time, he’s floundered with a .160/.306/.220 slash line in 62 plate appearances. He’s drawn 10 walks in that time against 11 strikeouts, so he’s maintained his discipline. However, Choi has been plagued by a .179 average on balls in play over that stretch, and the swoon has tarnished his season line.
A slump of that nature is never welcome for any hitter, but Choi’s downturn in performance is of particular concern for him given the offensive explosion of rookie/top prospect Nate Lowe. Since being summoned back for his second stint of big league work this season (when Choi landed on the IL due to an ankle injury), Lowe has obliterated big league pitching. It’s only 41 plate appearances, but the former 13th-round pick has belted five homers and three doubles with a .371/.463/.886 slash that’s impossible for the Rays to ignore. Overall, Lowe is hitting .315/.386/.589 in 75 plate appearances in his debut season.
Choi (who was activated from the IL two days ago) and Lowe can coexist in the same lineup for now, but as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times mentions in his latest Rays notebook, the organization could soon have to choose between the two. The Rays will get Brandon Lowe back from the IL in the near future, which muddies the roster. His return will push Joey Wendle back to a utility/bench role, where he’ll join another hot-hitting rookie, Mike Brosseau, and whichever of Travis d’Arnaud or Mike Zunino isn’t starting on a given day. Choi is out of minor league options, so he can’t be sent to the minors without being exposed to waivers.
Wendle does have a minor league option remaining, which is of note given that he hasn’t hit well at all since returning from a fractured wrist (.198/.272/.253). However, he’s capable of playing virtually any position on the diamond, whereas Choi is a first baseman only. Optioning Wendle to accommodate the return of Lowe (Brandon, that is) wouldn’t leave manager Kevin Cash with much in the way of defensive flexibility. An in-game injury to Willy Adames in that scenario would prove particularly problematic, given that Wendle is the only real alternative to him at shortstop.
The Rays could delay any potential decision by dropping a reliever and going back to a four-man bench, but if they go that route, the preferred choice could be to bring outfielder Guillermo Heredia back up to the Majors. Cash called the decision to option Heredia the “toughest send-down” of the season earlier this week. Heredia rejoined the team as the 26th man for yesterday’s doubleheader but has since been sent back to Triple-A Durham.
As if that didn’t present enough options for a limited number of roster spots, the Rays will soon see infielder/outfielder Daniel Robertson and third baseman Matt Duffy embark on minor league rehab assignments, as Topkin reported last weekend (Twitter links). Both have minor league options remaining, but their impending returns only add another variable to the equation.
Certainly, the upcoming trade deadline could alter the roster construction and resolve some of these issues. It’s possible, too, that additional injuries will arise and render some of the decisions moot for an additional period of time. But as things currently stand, the Rays seem like they’ll have a tough call on their hands in the not-too-distant future.
Rays Have Asked About Zack Wheeler
Mets right-hander and prime trade candidate Zack Wheeler went on the injured list Monday with shoulder fatigue – an issue that may damage or destroy his value. However, if Wheeler makes it back in the next couple weeks, the Rays could be among the teams competing for him around the July 31 trade deadline. They’ve asked about Wheeler, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.
Tampa Bay’s rotation currently has a notable omission of its own in righty Tyler Glasnow, who has been down since the beginning of May with a flexor strain. Rays manager Kevin Cash announced Monday that Glasnow may not make it back this season, which could intensify their efforts to acquire pitching before the deadline.
At 56-40, two games up on the American League’s No. 1 wild-card spot and five behind the AL East-leading Yankees, the Rays are in position to buy. The success the Rays have achieved this year is all the more impressive when considering their dearth of traditional starters. Charlie Morton, Blake Snell and Yonny Chirinos are all the team has right now in that regard, though Brendan McKay has performed well in the first three starts of his career and could return from Triple-A Durham soon.
In acquiring Wheeler, the low-budget Rays would be getting one of baseball’s hardest-throwing starters on a salary even they could afford ($5.975MM). But Wheeler’s not under control past 2019, which would make him a pure rental for Tampa Bay, and has had a difficult time preventing runs this year.
In spite of his 97 mph-plus fastball, the 29-year-old Wheeler has pitched to a below-average 4.69 ERA across 119 innings. While a subpar Mets defense has undermined Wheeler’s efforts, he has further hindered his cause by yielding home runs on a career-worst 13.7 percent of fly balls. FIP (3.66), xFIP (3.84), SIERA (3.99) and fWAR (2.6) all suggest Wheeler has deserved far better this season, though, and his 9.83 K/9 against 2.57 BB/9 presents another reason for bullishness. Of course, if Wheeler’s still out of commission by the deadline, his production could prove to be meaningless to the Rays and other July buyers.
Angels Acquire Anthony Bemboom
The Angels announced that they’ve acquired catcher Anthony Bemboom from the Rays for cash considerations.
This is the second transaction of the day involving Bemboom, whom the Rays designated for assignment in the afternoon. The 29-year-old had been on the 60-day injured list for two-plus months before then because of a knee issue, but his return led to his departure from Tampa Bay.
Bemboom is now reuniting with the Angels, who spent a 22nd-round pick on him in the 2012 draft. He was with the club until Colorado grabbed him in the 2016 Rule 5 Draft, though Bemboom never reached the majors in two seasons in the Rockies organization. He debuted in MLB earlier this year with the Rays, who signed him to a minor league deal in the offseason, logging just five plate appearances prior to his injury. Over a far larger sample size of 636 PA at the minors’ highest level, Bemboom has slashed .250/.341/.381 with 11 home runs.
The Angels’ acquisition of Bemboom comes on the verge of surgery for starting catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who will undergo a procedure to repair a nasal fracture Tuesday. Lucroy last played June 7, when he was involved in a gruesome collision at home plate with Astros outfielder Jake Marisnick, and will miss at least three more weeks. The Angels have turned to Dustin Garneau and Kevan Smith in his absence. Bemboom will provide further insurance as Lucroy recovers.
Latest On Tyler Glasnow
Rays righty Tyler Glasnow will not be allowed to throw for at least two weeks after his latest MRI, manager Kevin Cash told reporters including MLB.com’s Juan Toribio (Twitter link). The skipper says he doesn’t know whether the young righty will have time to ramp back up in order to return this season.
That’s not terribly encouraging news for the Tampa Bay organization, which is battling to stay within shouting distance of the division lead while holding on to Wild Card position. Glasnow has been sidelined for more than two months with forearm issues. He had raised hopes recently of a valiant return down the stretch, but the hour is beginning to get late.
With Glasnow reaching new performance levels early this year, the Rays had the makings of a three-headed monster in the rotation with veteran Charlie Morton and reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell. Though Morton has been an exceptional performer, Glasnow has been on the shelf since his eighth start of the year and Snell has failed to match his 2018 effort (in terms of earned run average, at least).
Understandably, the Rays are taking a cautious path with a key player-asset. Glasnow is set up for arbitration eligibility in the offseason as a Super Two, meaning he won’t be a free agent until 2024. That makes him an important piece in the long-term puzzle.
Glasnow’s long-term future remains bright, so long as he’s able to put this nebulous forearm problem behind him. He followed up a strong 2018 effort with 48 1/3 innings of 1.86 ERA ball to open the current campaign. Best of all, Glasnow averaged 10.2 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 with a 51.7% groundball rate. With a 97+ mph heater, 12.0% swinging-strike rate, and increasing ability to start batters off with strikes and stay in the zone, the talented righty has threatened to establish himself as a front-line starter.
Rays Designate Anthony Bemboom For Assignment
The Rays have reinstated catcher Anthony Bemboom from the 60-day injured list and designated him for assignment, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).
Bemboom, 29, made his MLB debut earlier this season after grinding through seven years in the minors. Unfortunately, in the same game that saw Bemboom collect his first two MLB hits, he also sustained a knee injury that sidelined him for two-plus months. Because he’d been on the 60-day IL, the Rays would’ve had to designate someone else for assignment in order to bring Bemboom back into the mix; instead, they opted to designate Bemboom himself now that he is apparently recovered from injury.
It’s a tough series of events for Bemboom, although if there’s a silver lining, it’s that he received MLB pay and service time while on the injured list. Tampa Bay will have a week to trade Bemboom, a career .250/.341/.381 hitter in Triple-A, or pass him through outright waivers. If he clears waivers, he can be retained without requiring a 40-man roster spot.
East Notes: Thor, Lowe, Bundy, Richard
The Mets’ struggles have mounted to the point that their general manager acknowledges having “low expectations” for the season’s second half. Despite the organization’s dumpster fire start, their young flamethrower has no hope of going elsewhere. “I love being a Met,” Noah Syndergaard told reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday. “If something were to ever change, it’d be definitely bittersweet just because of New York City itself, the fan base and just the guys in this clubhouse have a special place in my heart.” As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explored yesterday in a ranking of the top 60 trade candidates, the time might not be optimal to move Thor, who comes with two additional years of team control and is currently amidst a career-worst, albeit still more than adequate, season.
As we await the Mets’ next move, let’s check in on some injury notes from the East divisions:
- Rays infielder Brandon Lowe might not return from the 10-day injured list until the club’s next homestand, which begins Friday against the White Sox, manager Kevin Cash told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Lowe, who leads AL rookies with 2.5 fWAR, was placed on the IL July 4 with a right shin contusion, sustained when he fouled a ball off his leg. Lowe’s .276/.339/.523 line isn’t quite sustainable so long as he continues to strike out in a third of his plate appearances, but there’s little question getting his bat back in the lineup will be a boon for a team looking to augment its roster in the coming weeks.
- While Lowe will take more than the minimum to recover from his injury, Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy hopes to be more fortunate. Bundy was placed on the IL yesterday with right knee tendinitis, but he tells Roch Kubatko of MASN (via Twitter) he’s confident he can return when first eligible on July 23. It’s been more of the same this year for the former fourth overall pick; despite a solid 24% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate, an inability to keep the ball in the yard has Bundy’s ERA above 5.00 for the second consecutive season. Given his performance, he seems unlikely to be much of a trade chip this summer, even if he does return to the field in short order.
- The Blue Jays announced they’ve placed Clayton Richard on the 10-day injured list with a left lat strain, activating Edwin Jackson from an IL stint of his own in a corresponding move. Richard departed yesterday’s start against the Yankees after just two innings, leaving the bullpen to handle a hefty workload. The IL stint seems to foreclose any chance the Jays can flip Richard before the trade deadline, but he wouldn’t have been in high demand regardless, as he’s managed only a 5.96 ERA with a woeful 11% strikeout rate over ten starts. The 35-year-old is playing out the final months of a two-year/$6MM contract and is likely headed for a minor-league deal this winter.
Rays Intend To Buy At The Deadline
With just over two weeks until the trade deadline, the Rays are scouring the market for upgrades, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. “What we think of this group and the way they’ve played so far it certainly motivates us to want to help them out however we can,” front office head Chaim Bloom told Topkin. “We want to make sure we do that responsibly, that we’re staying true to our goal of competing sustainably and be able to do this consistently over a number of years. Anything we can do to help them out is something we’re certainly going to look at.”
That the Rays are looking to add comes as little surprise, given the team’s position in the standings. At 54-40, Tampa holds possession of the AL’s top wild card slot, 1.5 games up on Oakland. Following a scorching start to the season, the Rays have fallen off the pace somewhat over the past month, dropping six games behind the Yankees in the AL East. While that deficit isn’t insurmountable with almost half the season remaining, it seems the Rays’ most plausible path to October is via a wild card. Fangraphs’ playoff odds, for instance, give Tampa just an 8.5% chance of claiming the division crown. How far the small-market club is willing to push for, in all likelihood, a one-game playoff, will be interesting to monitor.
The franchise has never been one to set the market, typically hoarding long-term affordable control at the expense of headline-grabbing acquisitions. Given the organization’s historical reluctance to mortgage the future, Topkin cautions against anticipating they make a splash. Nevertheless, as he notes, the time might be right for them to do so.
Tampa Bay’s loaded farm system should force the organization’s hand sooner than later. With myriad prospects nearing Rule V eligibility, the Rays may need to start consolidating high-minors assets. Unlike many 40-man roster crunches, where a team moves a middle reliever or bench bat to clear space, Tampa seems open to dealing high-upside talent. Notably, vaunted middle infielder Vidal Brujan might not be off limits, as Topkin includes him among a list of prospects whom the Rays might consider moving this summer rather than committing a 40-man roster spot to after the season.
To be clear, there’s no indication the Rays are actively shopping Brujan (or any other specific farmhand), but that it seemingly remains under consideration is notable. A 21-year-old switch-hitter, Brujan’s blend of bat control, strike zone feel and athleticism make him one of baseball’s best young talents. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel and Keith Law of ESPN (subscription required) each place Brujan among the game’s 25 best prospects, in fact, with Fangraphs projecting him as a plus hitter and defender at second base who should offer a high-OBP skillset at his peak. MLB Pipeline and Baseball America are a little less bullish, questioning the amount of impact available in Brujan’s 5’9″, 155 pound frame, but the publications universally laud his hit tool and athleticism.
Unsurprisingly, the specifics of any deal remain up in the air. The Rays have previously been tied to bullpen upgrades, right-handed hitters and starting pitching (specifically, the top starter on the market, Matthew Boyd), all of which remain potential areas to upgrade, per Topkin. It’s not clear exactly how things will play out, but it’s nonetheless notable the organization has positioned itself as a buyer, especially in light of recent comments from GM Erik Neander indicating they might take things slower if they fell too far back in the division. With a farm system replete with talent across all levels of the minors and some hint of a willingness to push forward, the possibilities in St. Petersburg are endless.
Rays, Rangers Swap Nick Solak, Peter Fairbanks
The Rangers have acquired INF/OF Nick Solak from Tampa for righty Peter Fairbanks, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
Solak, 24, has slugged 17 homers for Triple-A Durham so far this season, though his .266/.353/.485 line checks in just 11 percent above the league average in the rocket-powered International League. The utility man sits at #93 on FanGraphs’ latest update of the game’s top prospects, with the site especially lauding his makeup, versatility, and power/speed combo. An addition to the 40-man roster would have been necessary for the former Yankee farmhand this offseason, and with the club already possessing of Joey Wendle, rookie-of-the-year candidate Brandon Lowe, Christian Arroyo, Willy Adames, Daniel Robertson, Matt Duffy, Mike Brosseau, Yandy Diaz, and up-and-comer Vidal Brujan in roles that would mirror Solak’s eventual place on the roster, a move did seem prudent.
Fairbanks, 25, brought his super-charged fastball to Arlington for the first time this season. The 6’6 righty struggled big-time with command in his short Ranger stint, walking seven in just 8 2/3 IP, to go with four homers allowed, but did flash world-beating stuff over that span (15 K, 97.2 MPH average fastball velocity). The two-time Tommy John survivor has logged just 43 minor-league innings since a transition to the bullpen in 2017, a sample which hasn’t held back plaudits from evaluators around the game. FanGraphs describes the flame-thrower as an “impact relief piece,” grading his fastball/slider combo as one of the best for burgeoning relief prospects across the minors.
Fairbanks’ll head to Triple-A Durham, per Topkin, where he’ll bolster an already-staunch register of high-leverage pieces in the Tampa ‘pen. Even without effective seasons from lynchpins Diego Castillo and Jose Alvarado, the Tampa ‘pen reigns FIP-supreme in MLB this season, with an AL-best 45.5% grounder rate.
The assignment for Solak is as-yet unclear, but he’d seem to represent a perfect right-side complement to Nomar Mazara, Shin-Soo Choo, or Asdrubal Cabrera, all of whom have slumped badly against southpaws this season. Rougned Odor, he of the dreadful 63 wRC+, has actually been far better against same-side hurlers this season, so perhaps the club pans to slot in Solak full-time at the keystone in his place.
Rays Activate Ji-Man Choi, Option Ian Gibaut
The Tampa Bay Rays activated first baseman Ji-Man Choi ahead of today’s action, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Ian Gibaut has been optioned back to Durham.
Choi missed the minimum ten games for a sprained left ankle. He is a key cog in the middle of the Rays lineup. With little margin for error in a top-heavy American League, the Rays could stand to get a little more production from him after a .266/.351/.423 first half.
For now, manager Kevin Cash will rotate Choi with Nate Lowe, tweets Topkin. Lowe would most naturally be used as a roster replacement for Choi, but Cash is also prepared to use Lowe at third base, where he’s spent time in the minors. For now, they simply don’t want to take Lowe out of the lineup as the 24-year-old has hit .291/.355/.509 with 3 home runs in 15 games. That kind of production out of the first base spot would go a long way in helping the Rays secure a spot in this year’s playoffs.
With the Rays, however, everything is fluid, and one day’s cleanup hitter could be back in Triple-A the next. Yandy Diaz also figures to play a prominent role in the corner infield rotation as the regular starter at third now that he’s discovered a power stroke (.278/.351/.477 on the year). Two other third base options remain on the shelf: Matt Duffy and Daniel Robertson are close enough to returning that each of them could be on rehab assignments by next week, per Topkin (Twitter links).
Gibaut has a fairly high ceiling as a bullpen piece, but his first taste of the majors was short: one appearance, two innings, two earned runs, two walks, two strikeouts, one hit.
A Breakout Reliever Emerges For Rays
Rays reliever Emilio Pagan was not the headliner in a three-team offseason trade featuring Tampa Bay, Oakland and Texas. That honor went to infielder Jurickson Profar, whom the Athletics acquired from the Rangers in the swap. However, between Pagan and Profar – the two major leaguers involved in the deal – it’s the former who has been the more valuable player so far in 2019.
Although Pagan just debuted in the majors in 2017, he’s already something of a journeyman. Pagan spent his rookie season as a useful piece of the Mariners’ bullpen before going to the Athletics in a trade prior to the 2018 campaign. While Pagan wasn’t that effective in his lone year with the A’s, he has emerged as one of the Rays’ go-to relievers since they recalled him from the minors in mid-April.
Pagan, a 28-year-old right-hander, has recorded a 1.75 ERA with 11.75 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 in 36 frames, making him one of the majors’ premier relievers in the run prevention and K/BB categories. Pagan also ranks 11th among all pitchers in weighted on-base average against (.221) and an even better third in xwOBA (.220), trailing only elite relievers Josh Hader and Kirby Yates in the latter department.
Pagan’s transformation into a great reliever, at least this year, has come with a change in pitch mix. He has always leaned on two offerings – a four-seam fastball and a slider – but the usage of each has changed significantly since last year. Pagan’s throwing his four-seamer 55.5 percent of the time, down from 64.5 in 2018, and has upped his slider usage from 29.4 percent to 40.6 in the same span. Both pitches have produced excellent results to this point, especially his fastball. Hitters have mustered an awful .200 wOBA/.156 xwOBA against it, thanks in part to an increase in velocity. The pitch averaged 93.8 mph in 2018, but it has shot to 95.4 this season. Unsurprisingly, the whiff percentage on Pagan’s four-seamer has risen substantially since 2018, having gone from 25.8 to 34.9 percent.
As you’d expect, with his strikeout rate and velocity at an all-time high, Pagan has fooled more hitters this year. Pagan’s chase rate is almost 4 percent better than his career mark, hitters have made 4-plus percent less contact against him than usual, and his swinging-strike rate is roughly 2.5 percent superior to his lifetime mean. While the average reliever has drawn swings and misses at an 11.8 percent clip this season, Pagan’s at 17.1 – good for ninth in the majors.
When batters have made contact against Pagan this season, it hasn’t been as easy to elevate the ball. At a piddly 24.9 percent, Pagan posted the majors’ last-ranked groundball rate among relievers from 2017-18. That number has elevated to an even 40.0 since he joined the Rays. With help from his uptick in grounders, home runs have become rarer against Pagan, who rated last among relievers in HRs per nine (1.60) over his first two seasons. He’s now surrendering just one per nine, which checks in well south of the league average (1.34).
It’s true Pagan is benefiting from a .224 batting average on balls in play and a 90.2 percent strand rate, two figures that could be difficult to sustain. But he’s handling both same-handed and lefty hitters, and Statcast is quite bullish on his work. At this point, Pagan looks like one of the majors’ most underrated additions of last winter and someone who could help pitch the playoff-contending Rays to the postseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.