- Rays GM Erik Neander admitted to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that the decision to designate Corey Dickerson for assignment was “very difficult and something he didn’t deserve in that way.” However, the presence of so many corner options on the market were dragging out the Rays’ efforts to trade him, and the DFA served as a means of putting a clock on the process for interested trade parties, which ultimately accelerated the process. “With the market and how many guys were out there, we felt that the best way to try to accomplish something was to put a timer on it and expedite the process,” said Neander.
Rays Rumors
Pirates Acquire Corey Dickerson From Rays
1:17pm: The Pirates are sending the Rays $1MM as part of the trade, reports Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic (Twitter link). In essence, then, they’ll spend an additional $1.45MM to turn Hudson into Dickerson, while the Rays will add a reliever to their ’pen, a prospect to the lower levels of their farm system, and trim $1.45MM from their 2018 payroll.
12:24pm: The Pirates announced that they’ve acquired outfielder Corey Dickerson from the Rays in exchange for reliever Daniel Hudson, minor league infielder Tristan Gray and cash.
Tampa Bay recently designated Dickerson, 28, for assignment in a move that came as a surprise to many. Dickerson posted solid overall numbers in 2017, hitting .282/.325/.490 with 27 homers in 629 trips to the plate. Dickerson, though, faded badly after a strong start to the season.
Though Dickerson hit .326/.369/.570 with 17 homers through the season’s first three months, that production was supported by a .374 BABIP that he didn’t seem especially likely to maintain. That number came back down to earth from July through season’s end as Dickerson’s strikeout rate rose to nearly 29 percent, and he batted just .232/.273/.397 with 10 homers and an 82-to-16 K/BB ratio in the final three months of the season.
That said, Dickerson still has an overall track record as a quality bat, as evidenced by a lifetime .280/.325/.504 slash and 119 OPS+. He’ll earn $5.95MM in 2018 and is controllable for one more year via arbitration before he can reach free agency.
The Pirates desperately needed some outfield help following this offseason’s trade of former face of the franchise Andrew McCutchen, and Dickerson should slot into the organization as the team’s new everyday left fielder. Defensive metrics aren’t exactly bullish on his glovework in the outfield, though he’s graded out as generally average or slightly above-average in left field over the past two seasons after drawing poor marks early in his career with the Rockies. He’ll be joined in the outfield by Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco, each of whom is looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2017 season.
[Related: Updated Pittsburgh Pirates depth chart]
Though Dickerson isn’t likely to recreate the massive performance he rode to his first career All-Star appearance in the first half last season, he should nonetheless serve as an offensive upgrade over the Pirates’ internal options in left field. Adam Frazier and Jordan Luplow were two of the main candidates for that gig on the 40-man roster, while veterans Michael Saunders and Daniel Nava are in camp as non-roster invitees to Spring Training. Certainly, the Dickerson pickup places a significant roadblock to either veteran making the roster, and it’s fair to wonder if they’ll ultimately be allowed to seek other opportunities.
In Hudson, the Rays will pick up a hard-throwing veteran reliever looking for a rebound season of his own. Hudson’s contract calls for him to earn $5.5MM this season, so the two contracts nearly cancel each other out. However, the Pirates are also sending cash to the Rays in the deal, so it appears that Tampa Bay will come out ahead, financially speaking, in the swap.
Hudson, 31 early next month, posted a 4.38 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9 and a 43.3 percent ground-ball rate while averaging 95.6 mph on his fastball through 61 2/3 innings last year. A converted starter that has twice undergone Tommy John surgery in his career, Hudson has a 4.59 ERA in the ’pen over the past three-plus seasons since making the switch, but secondary metrics have been considerably more optimistic based on his strikeout rates and, outside of last season, his control. In 192 1/3 frames as a reliever, Hudson has a 3.84 FIP and 3.78 SIERA.
Tampa Bay executives Erik Neander and Chaim Bloom recently downplayed the possibility of the Rays trading closer Alex Colome before the season begins, so it seems that Hudson will pair with recently re-signed Sergio Romo to give the Rays another experienced arm in their setup corps.
The addition of that pair of veteran arms will allow the Rays to lean less heavily on what had looked to be a largely inexperienced group of relievers outside of Colome and southpaw Dan Jennings. Andrew Kittredge, Chaz Roe, Austin Pruitt, Ryne Stanek, Jose Alvarado and Chih-Wei Hu wiill be among the names vying for the remaining bullpen spots with the Rays this spring now that Hudson is on board.
[Related: Updated Tampa Bay Rays depth chart]
Gray, meanwhile, was Pittsburgh’s 13th-round pick in last year’s draft and posted a .269/.329/.486 slash with seven homers and five steals in 53 games for the Pirates’ short-season Class-A affiliate last year. The second baseman was an honorable mention on Fangraphs’ list of the Pirates’ Top 25 prospects, with Eric Longenhagen pointing to a long track record of production as an amateur but also labeling his overall offensive profile as “middling.”
All told, it’s a fairly underwhelming return for Dickerson, though that’s largely indicative of the manner in which bat-first corner outfielders have been devalued in the current economic climate of baseball. The Rays surely tried to trade Dickerson for much of the winter but seemingly found no takers before designating him for assignment, and even in this swap it seems that Tampa Bay had to agree to take on some salary to work out a deal. Jay Bruce managed to score a three-year, $39MM pact with a similar, albeit superior overall profile at the plate, but both the trade and free-agent markets for good-not-great corner outfielders have been rather tepid over the past couple of seasons.
It seems plausible that the Rays simply felt they could utilize a full season of Mallex Smith in a corner outfield spot without losing much in the way of overall value, and elected to turn Dickerson into an alternative Major League asset. The surprising trade of Steven Souza that followed Dickerson’s DFA, as the Rays’ front office told it recently, was more or less a function of an unexpected and aggressive pursuit of Souza by the Diamondbacks, who promised a prospect package the Rays felt they could not afford to turn away. The Rays were then able to capitalize on a weak free-agent market and bring in Carlos Gomez at a bargain rate — a move that further reflects the dwindling value of above-average offensive outfielders that aren’t premium defensive assets.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rays’ Top Prospect Brent Honeywell Diagnosed With Forearm Strain, Undergoing Further Tests
Rays top pitching prospect Brent Honeywell exited today’s workout with an arm injury that is of “potential major concern” to the team, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (all Twitter links). Per Topkin, Honeywell threw eight to 10 pitches before cursing loudly and walking off the mound with a trainer. Manager Kevin Cash tells Topkin that the early diagnosis is a forearm strain, and Honeywell is set to undergo further evaluations.
Honeywell, 22, is considered among the game’s elite minor leaguers, ranking among baseball’s top 20 or so overall prospects on virtually every major publication. The former No. 72 overall draft pick enjoyed a terrific season in Triple-A against older competition in 2017, tossing 123 2/3 innings with 11.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a 41.2 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 3.64 ERA, a 2.84 FIP and a 2.77 xFIP.
While most consider Honeywell to be ready for Major League action, or at least very close to MLB readiness, Tampa Bay wasn’t expected to break camp with Honeywell in the rotation. Rather, he figured to open the season in Triple-A — both to finish off his development and also to buy the Rays an additional year of club control by delaying his service clock, as many teams tend to do with their top young talent. The forearm issue could well delay his start to the season and, of course, could be a portent to a more severe injury.
Tampa Bay recently thinned out its rotation mix by trading Jake Odorizzi to the Twins, though they quickly replenished the lost depth by picking up Anthony Banda — another largely MLB-ready young starter — in the Steven Souza trade with the D-backs and Yankees. Any lengthy absence for Honeywell would deprive the organization of its highest-upside minor league arm, but the Rays do possess a considerably deep stock of big-league-ready starters, even if many of them are lacking in Major League experience.
[Related: Tampa Bay Rays depth chart]
The Rays are set to open the season with Chris Archer, Blake Snell, Jake Faria and Nathan Eovaldi in a four-man rotation, Topkin recently reported, with Matt Andriese beginning the year as a multi-inning reliever and eventually sliding into the fifth spot in the rotation. Looming in the upper minors are Banda, Jose De Leon, Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos, each of whom has had a full season of Triple-A work under his belt at this point. Both Yarbrough and Chirinos enjoyed particularly strong years in the rotation for the Rays’ Triple-A affiliate last year, and each of that group is already on the 40-man roster. Righties Jose Mujica and Hunter Wood have less experience and success in the upper levels, but each is on the 40-man roster and could plausibly see MLB time in 2018.
Rays Unlikely To Further Tear Down Roster
The recent string of subtractions by the Rays — Jake Odorizzi, Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza have all been moved in the past five days — has fans of other clubs hoping for a full rebuild and, thus, trades of Chris Archer, Alex Colome and/or Kevin Kiermaier. However, Tampa Bay GM Erik Neander and senior vice president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom both strongly suggested that such moves are unlikely tonight in separate interviews. (Neander spoke with with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, while Bloom’s chat with Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM can be heard on Twitter.)
Tonight’s trade of Souza was a tough one for Rays faithful to absorb, given the amount of payroll that previous moves involving Evan Longoria, Odorizzi and Dickerson had already saved and given Souza’s modest $3.55MM salary. However, Bloom suggested that the trade of Souza had far less to do with cutting payroll than it did with the fact that the D-backs aggressively pursued Souza as a fallback after losing J.D. Martinez to the Red Sox. (Tampa Bay received MLB-ready left-hander Anthony Banda, second base prospect Nick Solak and a pair of players to be named later who, according to ESPN’s Keith Law, are “more than just throw-ins,” though their identities are not yet known.)
“We feel this move, just the way the Diamondbacks came after Steven, that it was something that we couldn’t walk past,” said Bloom before going on to suggest that the Rays may now add some pieces. “And knowing that it does take a chunk out of our lineup, we still feel good about the talent we have on hand. … We want to spend the rest of the spring looking for ways we can support this group, knowing that we’re going to be young, we’re going to be interesting and we want to give this group as much of a chance as possible to succeed.”
Neander had similar sentiments, calling the Souza trade a “pure baseball decision” based on a package “we felt we couldn’t pass up.” Bloom, in his interview, repeatedly speaks about supporting the group of core pieces already on the roster (e.g. Archer, Kiermaier) as well as the emerging wave of talent that is on the cusp of the Majors. (While Bloom doesn’t specify names, the Rays could very well see right-hander Brent Honeywell join a largely homegrown rotation this season and also have position players such as Willy Adames and Jake Bauers on the cusp of the Majors.) To that end, he flatly denied any plans of moving further core pieces.
“As far as Archer and Colome, that’s not our plan,” said Bloom when asked by Bowden about that pair specifically. “…We recognize, again, that we’re in a little bit of a transition phase as we focus on building up that young core, but we don’t want to ignore that we have a pretty dynamic group.” Neander’s message was the same.
“I would say extremely unlikely,” said the GM when asked about further tearing down the club (via Topkin). “Our focus at this point is we’d like to add a little bit. We’re not looking to pull this thing back.”
Neander went on to state that there’s “work to do” when it comes to finding a replacement from Souza, which seems likely to come from outside the organization. As Topkin points out, the Rays currently project to have an all-left-handed-hitting outfield of Denard Span, Kiermaier and Mallex Smith. Generally speaking, the team has a fairly obvious need for right-handed offense after trading Longoria and Souza and, thus far, adding only C.J. Cron as a right-handed bat this offseason.
As always, there are multiple avenues for the Rays to explore when determining how to address that need. The free-agent market isn’t exactly teeming with options, though Carlos Gomez remains available and is still capable of holding down a regular role in the outfield. A roll of the dice on a veteran like Jose Bautista may not excite many fans, though it’d come at a minimal cost given his recent struggles. The trade market would present further options, with Milwaukee’s Domingo Santana standing out as a particularly logical name to pursue given Milwaukee’s outfield surplus and desire for controllable starters. (To be clear, all of those names are merely speculative to this point.)
More broadly, while neither Neander nor Bloom proclaimed themselves definitive contenders for the division, both expressed a belief that the Rays, with some (presumably modestly priced) additions around the periphery of the roster can be a largely competitive unit in 2018. Bloom acknowledged that the Rays aren’t yet among the “upper-echelon” teams in the American League but voiced a desire to get there and optimism about being able to do so with a number of the young pieces that’re already in the organization.
“With respect to the quality of our pitching and the quality of our defense, we’re going to be competitive,” Neander added.
Rays To Open Season With Four-Man Rotation
- Following the trade of Jake Odorizzi to the Twins, the Rays plan to use a four-man rotation of Chris Archer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jake Faria and Blake Snell for the first six weeks of the season or so, manager Kevin Cash tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The increased amount of off-days in the schedule this year due to the season’s earlier start will allow the club to use fifth starter Matt Andriese as a multi-inning reliever. The Rays, unsurprisingly, plan to keep top prospects like Brent Honeywell in the minors to begin the season, which will allow them to gain extra control and avoid Super Two status for arbitration purposes.
Yankees Acquire Brandon Drury, D-Backs Acquire Steven Souza In Three-Team Trade With Rays
The Rays, Yankees and D-backs have agreed to a significant three-team trade that will send outfielder Steven Souza from Tampa Bay to Arizona, infielder/outfielder Brandon Drury from Arizona to New York and prospects to Tampa Bay. The Rays will receive left-hander Anthony Banda and two players to be named later from the D-backs as well as minor league second baseman Nick Solak from the Yankees. Additionally, the Yankees will send right-hander Taylor Widener to the Diamondbacks. The teams have announced the trade.
The acquisition of Souza will be the second notable outfield pickup for the D-backs in as many days, as the Snakes added Jarrod Dyson on a two-year deal yesterday just minutes after losing out on J.D. Martinez, who signed a five-year deal with the Red Sox. Souza is a solid consolation price to that failed pursuit, as he’ll give the D-backs a right-handed bat with lesser power but superior defense to Martinez — and it’s certainly notable that he’s coming off a 30-homer season himself.
Souza, set to turn 29 in late April, hit .239/.351/.459 with 21 doubles, a pair of triples and 16 stolen bases in addition to his 30 home runs last season. While he can’t make up for the loss of Martinez’s bat on his own, he’s long shown plenty of pop at the plate and last season walked at a career-best 13.6 percent clip as well. He is, of course, not without red flags. Even if he’s able to sustain the uptick in walks, Souza figures to continue to hit for a questionable batting average so long as he continues to struggle with his overall contact skills. Souza whiffed at a 29 percent rate in 2017, and that actually represented an improvement over 2016’s alarming 34 percent strikeout rate.
That said, he comes to the D-backs with three years of club control remaining, meaning he’ll be a fairly long-term option for them in an outfield mix that also includes Dyson, impending free agent A.J. Pollock, David Peralta and Yasmany Tomas (though the D-backs would surely love to escape the remainder of Tomas’ onerous financial commitment).
Arizona will also add a former 12th-round pick, Widener, that turned in a strong season in Class-A Advanced last season when he tossed 119 1/3 innings of 3.39 ERA ball with a 129-to-50 K/BB ratio over the life of 27 starts. He’s had some durability issues in the past, with Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com noting last summer that he had ulnar transposition surgery in 2015 and dealt with back and knee injuries in college. There’s starter potential for Widener, but he’ll need to prove capable of handling a regular workload in the rotation.
[Updated Depth Charts: Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks]
The 25-year-old Drury, meanwhile, will give the Yankees the infield depth they’ve been seeking as they currently make evaluations of Miguel Andujar at third base and Gleyber Torres at second base. After trading Chase Headley and Starlin Castro this offseason, the Yanks lacked certainty at both of those positions, but Drury presents a more experienced option than any of their infield prospect that has seen plenty of Major League action at both slots. If Andujar and/or Torres prove ready to handle a full workload in 2018, then Drury can shift into a super-utility role and provide depth at a number of spots around the diamond.
Drury is fresh off a solid, if unspectacular .267/.317/.447 slash with 13 homers through 480 plate appearances this past season. Since establishing himself as a regular in the D-backs’ infield/corner outfield rotation in 2016, Drury has batted .275/.323/.453 with 29 home runs. He’s controllable for another four seasons and should factor into the Yankees’ Opening Day lineup, though which position he plays will likely be determined over the course of Spring Training.
Drury, a rumored target for the Yankees dating back to December, comes to the Yankees with more than 1000 innings of MLB experience at second base and more than 300 innings at third base; that division of labor was flipped during his minor league career, as he logged more than 3000 innings at the hot corner in the minors and just 620 at second base prior to reaching the Majors.
He drew above-average marks from Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating for his work in 947 innings at second base this past season, though both metrics feel his limited big league work at third base has been below average. Drury also has 700 innings of corner outfield work under his belt (where he’s drawn below-average marks as well) and has even played six innings at shortstop in the Majors.
The acquisition of Drury likely puts an end to the oft-speculated possibility of a Mike Moustakas signing for the Yankees. And, because he’s not eligible for arbitration until next winter, Drury allows the Yankees to maintain plenty of financial flexibility, leaving room for in-season moves, which was reported to be a priority for GM Brian Cashman.
As for the Rays, the trade sends the latest of several signals that the team is looking to retool its current group and scale back payroll. Souza avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $3.55MM deal earlier this winter, and he’ll now join Corey Dickerson ($5.95MM) and Jake Odorizzi ($6.3MM) as arbitration-eligible players whom the Rays have shipped out in recent days. The subtractions of Odorizzi and Souza leave the Rays with a projected payroll of just $78.77MM, and that’ll further drop once it’s determined how much (if any) of Dickerson’s salary they’ll need to pay in 2018. The Rays would owe Dickerson 30 days of his non-guaranteed arbitration salary for the 2018 season if he clears waivers and is released — roughly $975K — so this trio of moves should dip their payroll into the $73MM range.
Cost savings notwithstanding, the Rays also look to have bolstered their farm system in a meaningful way with today’s trade. Baseball America rated Banda second among D-backs farmhands (albeit in a weak minor league system), while the publication considered Solak to be the 10th-best second base prospect in the game.
The 24-year-old Banda entered the 2017 season as BA’s No. 88 overall prospect, but he struggled through a down year in 2017, pitching to a 5.39 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a 42 percent ground-ball rate in 122 innings in the extremely hitter-friendly confines of Triple-A Reno. The former 10th-rounder also made his MLB debut in 2017, allowing 17 runs in 25 2/3 innings with a 25-to-10 K/BB ratio. Even with that rough run in Triple-A and the Majors, Banda still has a potential future as a mid-rotation starter, per BA, whose scouting report also noted that he also showed the skills to be a quality late-inning reliever.
Solak, meanwhile, batted .297/.384/.452 with 12 homers and 14 steals through 130 games / 538 plate appearances split between Class-A Advanced and Double-A in his first full season in 2017. He also displayed strong K/BB ratios, striking out at an 18.5 percent pace to go along with a quality 11.7 percent walk rate.
It remains to be seen whether the trades of Souza, Odorizzi and Dickerson will serve as the catalyst for a full-scale fire sale in St. Petersburg, where the Rays still have highly appealing assets such as Chris Archer and Alex Colome. Technically speaking, the Rays have MLB-ready assets that can plausibly step into the fold in the place of Odorizzi, given the presence of pitching prospects like Brent Honeywell, Jose De Leon, Banda and Ryan Yarbrough, among others. Mallex Smith, meanwhile, is an option to step into the outfield in place of Souza or Dickerson, while veteran Denard Span can handle another outfield spot.
But, it’s also true that the Rays face an uphill battle in a competitive AL East — especially following the subtraction of two of their better hitters from 2017 and a rotation mainstay in Odorizzi. Viewed through that lens, there’s good sense for the Rays to continue to at least explore trade possibilities for the likes of Archer and Colome as they look to bolster their farm, improve their draft/international pools for the 2019 season and establish a new wave of controllable, pre-arbitration assets that can help their lower-revenue organization form a core in the next competitive cycle.
That type of thinking has drawn the ire of agents and the Major League Baseball Players Association this offseason, given the diminished number of teams that are even entertaining the thought of signing veteran free agents. But, it’s also factual that the system, as currently constructed in the latest CBA, favors aggressive tear-downs more than it does trying to walk the line between rebuilding and contending — a reality that could conceivably push the Rays into further action on the trade market.
FanRag’s Robert Murray got the ball rolling on the story by reporting that Solak was headed to the Rays for an unknown return (via Twitter). FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweeted that Drury had been traded to the Yankees. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic broke the three-team nature of the swap, including that Souza was going to the D-backs (Twitter link). Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Banda was coming to the Rays in the deal. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported Widener’s inclusion in the deal (Twitter link). MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert added that there were a pair of PTBNLs going to the Rays in the swap as well (via Twitter).
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Erik Neander Discusses Rays' Saturday Moves
- The Rays would’ve been the biggest story in baseball last night if not for the Hosmer news, having designated outfielder Corey Dickerson for assignment in an eye-opening move, acquired first baseman C.J. Cron from the Angels and traded righty Jake Odorizzi to the Twins. It wasn’t at all surprising that the Rays dealt Odorizzi, who had been in trade rumors for months, but it was unexpected that they only received a borderline top 30 Twins prospect (Single-A shortstop Jermaine Palacios) in return. General manager Erik Neander addressed that, telling Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times and other reporters that the Rays “probably have him valued quite a bit higher than some of the public publications.” Ultimately, with the Rays set to begin full-squad workouts on Monday, parting with Odorizzi and Dickerson was something they had to do, according to Neander. “You just don’t want a cloud of uncertainty hanging over our group,” he said. “It was time to move forward.” Even if the Rays end up cutting Dickerson and getting nothing back, they’ll justify it as essentially trading two years of control over him for three of Cron and saving money in the process, per Topkin. After parting with Odorizzi and Dickerson, the club could use its added “financial flexibility” to “reinvest” in free agency, Neander said Sunday (Twitter link via Topkin).
- A Dickerson trade was not imminent as of last night, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported (Twitter link), but a deal could come together with the AL East rival Orioles, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun suggests. The Orioles, who have been on the lookout for a lefty-hitting outfielder for months, “will undoubtedly inquire about Dickerson,” Encina writes. Dickerson has impressed Orioles manager Buck Showalter in the past, relays Encina, who adds that being in the same division hasn’t stopped the Rays and O’s from swinging deals at previous points (Baltimore acquired infielder Tim Beckham from Tampa Bay last season, for instance).
Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi
The Twins have acquired right-hander Jake Odorizzi from the Rays, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (Twitter link). Shortstop prospect Jermaine Palacios is going back to the Rays in return, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports. Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reported earlier tonight that the two clubs had agreed to some sort of a trade. In a corresponding move, Michael Pineda has been placed on the 60-day DL to create space for Odorizzi on the Twins’ roster.
Odorizzi has been widely mentioned in trade rumors this winter, with such teams as the Orioles, Brewers, Yankees, Angels, Phillies, and Nationals also noted as having some interest in his services. It’s probably fair to assume that just about every team in baseball with a need for starting pitching checked in on Odorizzi given his solid track record and his two remaining years of control. Odorizzi recently defeated the Rays in an arbitration hearing and will earn $6.3MM in 2018, making him a particularly affordable asset for a smaller-market team like Minnesota. The Rays and Twins had been talking pitching deals for much of the winter, with Minnesota focusing on both Odorizzi and Chris Archer, who carried a significantly higher asking price due to his team-friendly contract and four years of control.
[Updated Twins and Rays depth charts on Roster Resource]
Minnesota has been connected to virtually every available pitcher in the sport on both the trade and free agent fronts this winter, and in Odorizzi, the Twins have landed an arm that could be on the mound for them come Opening Day. Rotation help was a key need for a Twins team that had a lot of youth and question marks beyond Ervin Santana, and even his frontline status took a hit with the news that Santana will miss some time at the start of the season due to finger surgery. Odorizzi and Jose Berrios will now sit atop the Twins’ rotation until Santana returns, with Adalberto Mejia and Kyle Gibson lined up for jobs, Tyler Duffey and Anibal Sanchez battling for a fifth starter’s role and Phil Hughes also expected to return at some point during the season after recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.
There’s still a lot of uncertainty within that pitching mix, and it isn’t out the question that the Twins make another pitching acquisition (a signing or another notable trade) to further supplement the rotation. Conversely, the club could just make another depth signing or two, such as another veteran like Sanchez on a minor league contract.
More pitching reinforcements could be an option for Minnesota because it can’t be ignored that Odorizzi’s performance took a big step backwards in 2017. He was limited to 143 1/3 IP due to two separate DL stints for hamstring and back problems, and he posted a 4.14 ERA, 2.08 K/BB rate, and 7.97 K/9. While these numbers seem solid, ERA predictors (5.43 FIP, 5.10 xFIP, 4.90 SIERA) had a much more pessimistic view of Odorizzi’s performance, as a .227 BABIP likely helped keep his actual ERA in check. While he delivered a career-best 11.2% swinging-strike rate, Odorizzi also delivered the worst hard-hit ball (36.8%), home run rate (15.5%) and BB/9 (3.83) numbers of his four full MLB seasons. Baseball Reference actually judged Odorizzi as below-replacement level (-0.1 bWAR) last season, while Fangraphs rated him barely higher with 0.1 fWAR.
Since Odorizzi has been the subject of trade speculation for well over a year now, Tampa Bay could well face criticism that they waited too long to move the righty, especially given the fact that Palacios is a fairly lightly-regarded prospect within Minnesota’s farm system. ESPN’s Keith Law ranked the infielder 24th on his list of Twins prospects, with MLB.com rating Palacios 27th amongst Minnesota farmhands. The 21-year-old Venezuela native was signed in 2013 and he has a .290/.345/.426 slash line over 1303 pro plate appearances, 263 of those PA coming at high-A ball last season. MLB.com’s scouting report described him as “an offensive-minded middle infielder whose bat is a little bit ahead of his glove….He has some potential at the plate to hit for average and good extra-base pop.” Palacios’s defense got solid reviews, though the assumption was that he would eventually have to change positions due to the number of other good shortstops ahead of him in the Twins’ system; the same could be true for him in Tampa given Willy Adames’ rep as the Rays’ shortstop of the future.
Between the Odorizzi deal and designating Corey Dickerson for assignment earlier tonight, the Rays have now moved roughly $11.2MM off their books, and that number could jump to $12.25MM if another team claims Dickerson or makes a trade for his services. With their projected payroll still in franchise-high territory even after those moves and the Evan Longoria trade, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the likes of Denard Span, Alex Colome, Brad Miller, Adeiny Hechavarria, and the newly-acquired C.J. Cron all shopped before Opening Day.
Even without Odorizzi, however, the Rays still boast a pretty strong pitching staff — Archer, Blake Snell, Jake Faria, Matt Andriese, and Nathan Eovaldi are the projected starting five, with top prospect Brent Honeywell waiting for a call-up at Triple-A. Some more work is likely necessary for the lineup and bullpen, however, and it will be challenging to both save dollars and add enough talent to remain competitive in a tough AL East.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Rays Acquire C.J. Cron, Designate Corey Dickerson
The Rays have acquired first baseman C.J. Cron from the Angels for a player to be named later, both teams annonuced. In a surprising corresponding move, Tampa also announced that outfielder Corey Dickerson has been designated for assignment to create roster space.
Cron had been noted as a potential trade candidate for much of the winter, especially after the Angels signed Shohei Ohtani and Zack Cozart. Ohtani’s presence in the DH mix meant more planned first base time for Albert Pujols, and Cozart’s installation as the everyday third baseman left Luis Valbuena floating between third and first. With Cron’s departure, the Halos can now use Pujols at DH and Valbuena at first base, with Pujols shifting to first a couple of times per week to give Ohtani a chance to hit. Jefry Marte is also on hand as inexpensive corner infield depth.
“With the construction of our roster and the personnel we have in place for this upcoming season, we have to place a premium on flexibility and maneuverability within our position player group,” Angels GM Billy Eppler told reporters, including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Cron is only a first baseman and was out of options, leaving him the odd man out on a three-man Angels bench (necessitated by the likelihood of the team carrying 13 pitchers).
Never quite a regular in the Angels lineup over his four MLB seasons, Cron has hit .262/.307/.449 with 59 homers over 1475 career plate appearances. As per Fangraphs’ wRC+ metric, Cron has created seven percent more runs (107 wRC+) than the average hitter over that same stretch, despite a lack of on-base ability. He is also something of a reverse-splits hitter from the right side of the plate, with a career .772 OPS against right-handers and only a .716 OPS against southpaws.
[Updated Angels and Rays depth charts at Roster Resource]
These splits make Cron a something less-than-ideal platoon partner with Brad Miller, the Rays’ incumbent first baseman, given the left-handed Miller’s struggles against same-sided pitching. Cron could receive regular duty as either a first baseman or a designated hitter, though the Rays would have to be confident that Cron’s 2017 season (the worst of his career) was just an aberration due to foot injuries. Cron did increase his hard-hit ball rate to a career-best 35.8% last season, though his main issue was simply making putting the bat on the ball at all, as evidenced lowered contact rates and a career-worst 25.7% strikeout rate.
Perhaps the bigger headline here is that the Rays are prepared to entirely cut ties with Dickerson, who made the AL All-Star team just last summer. Dickerson hit .282/.325/.490 with 27 homers over 629 PA in 2017, though the large majority of that damage came in the first half of the season. Dickerson posted a .903 OPS in 370 PA before the break, and only a .690 OPS in 259 PA after the break. That dropoff notwithstanding, Dickerson was a 2.6 fWAR player last season, posted respectable defensive numbers in left field (+4.5 UZR/150, -1 Defensive Runs Saved), is still just 28 years old and is under team control for two more seasons.
As always with the Rays, financial elements played a key role. It was widely expected that the Rays were going to cut payroll this winter, with Dickerson and the team’s other priciest arbitration-eligible players standing out as the likeliest candidates to be traded. (Not to mention the Rays moving their biggest contract in Evan Longoria.) Dickerson is slated to earn $5.95MM in 2018 after avoiding arbitration with the team, while Cron is set to earn $2.3MM in 2018 and has two more arb-eligible years before reaching free agency after the 2020 season.
Dickerson’s salary is not guaranteed since he is an arbitration-eligible player, so the Rays would only owe him 30 days’ worth of termination pay if he ends up being released after the 10-day DFA period. A team that claims Dickerson or works out a trade with the Rays during the next 10 days would take on his full $5.95MM salary. If the Rays were willing to go to this extent to unload Dickerson’s salary, it wouldn’t be a shock to see other players (perhaps Miller or Adeiny Hechevarria, not more valuable trade chips like Jake Odorizzi or Alex Colome) also let go before their arbitration salaries become guaranteed.
Under normal circumstances, you’d think Dickerson would draw a lot of interest from several teams, though his market could be somewhat muted given the large number of power bats still available on the free agent market. One can assume the Rays have been shopping Dickerson for much of the winter and couldn’t find any takers, though it’s possible any interested teams could also swoop in now they could simply claim him without having to give up anything in return. A team could also hope that nobody else acquires Dickerson over the 10 days in the hopes of signing him to a cheaper contract.
Jake Odorizzi Wins Arbitration Hearing
Jake Odorizzi won his arbitration hearing against the Rays and will be paid $6.3MM in 2018 as opposed to the $6.05MM figure submitted by the team, reports Marc Tokpin of the Tampa Bay Times (on Twitter). It’s a $2.2MM raise overall for the right-hander, who earned $4.1MM in 2017. Odorizzi recently hired Excel Sports Management as his new representation after leaving CSE following the scandal involving former agent Jason Wood.
Odorizzi, 28 next month, has now topped the Rays in arbitration hearings in consecutive years, though his 2017 performance was not nearly as strong as his 2016 showing. This past season, Odorizzi worked to a 4.14 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9 in 143 1/3 innings — a step back from 2016’s 187 2/3 frames of 3.69 ERA ball with an identical K/9 mark and a vastly superior 2.6 BB/9 rate.
Odorizzi’s name has come up frequently in trade rumors this offseason even with Spring Training underway, as the Rays are reportedly still looking to shed some payroll before the season begins. He’s been connected to the Twins, Brewers and Orioles, among other teams, in recent weeks.
