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AL East Notes: Upton, Escobar, Farrell, Red Sox

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As the Orioles host the Blue Jays and the Rays play at Fenway Park, here's the latest from the AL East…

  • It seems as if B.J. Upton is entering his final days with the Rays, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
  • It shouldn't be seen as a foregone conclusion that the Blue Jays will part ways with Yunel Escobar, opines MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm in a series of tweets.  The Jays aren't in the habit of selling low on players, plus Chisholm argues that Escobar is still an asset given his team-friendly contract and the Jays' need for a second baseman.
  • Also from Chisholm, the Jays were never "actively" looking to deal Escobar before the trade deadline and trade rumors about the shortstop were "drastically overblown." 
  • The Escobar controversy and the Blue Jays' poor record may hurt John Farrell's standing as the perceived favorite to become the next Red Sox manager, an unnamed baseball executive tells ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes.  The executive also suggests that Boston should hire a new manager quickly and make it clear that he is the consensus choice, as opposed to the feeling last winter that team ownership hired Bobby Valentine over GM Ben Cherington's objections.
  • Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe makes a few predictions and thoughts about what the Red Sox need to do this offseason.  Abraham guesses Farrell, Tim Bogar or Torey Lovullo will manage the Sox next year, David Ortiz and Cody Ross will re-sign and the Sox will hire a "director of pitching" to oversee pitchers throughout the organization.
  • Ichiro Suzuki's recent performance has spurred the Yankees and changed the conversation about his playing future, says Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times.  "Two weeks ago, the big talk about Ichiro was that his most likely destination next season was Japan. Now, you hear talk that the San Francisco Giants could represent a likely landing spot," writes Baker.  Though the Giants have a history of signing veteran free agents and their outfield will be in flux this winter, I'm not sure they're a good fit for Ichiro given his age and demands for playing time.
  • MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith compiled another set of AL East notes earlier today.

Cafardo On Angels, Ross, Loney, Carp, Scioscia

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In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that there could be a few interesting options for manager Terry Francona this offseason.  There could be two additional openings for the former Red Sox manager with reports indicating that the Angels' Mike Scioscia and Jim Leyland of the Tigers could be in danger of being dismissed this offseason.  Cafardo opines that either team would be ideal for Tito as both teams have the resources to improve and he would be inheriting the same kind of talent-rich team he had in Boston after the 2003 season.  Here's more from Cafardo..

  • Outfielder Cody Ross has three major-market teams – the Phillies, Yankees, and Red Sox – very interested in him.  Ross has made it clear that he would like to stay in Boston and Larry Lucchino said earlier this week that the club is beginning the process of keeping him for next season and beyond. 
  • The Red Sox are also thinking about re-signing James Loney and he is receptive to coming back, but he could pick up attention in a thin first base market.  The Rays can be expected to kick the tires on Loney as they are unlikely to re-sign Carlos Pena.
  • Mariners first baseman/outfielder Mike Carp could be expendable as the club is likely committed to Justin Smoak at first base.  Carp is starting to appear on a few teams’ wish lists and one NL scout is rather high on him.  “He’s an interesting name,” said the scout. “He’s been buried on that roster in a big ballpark, and if you take him out of there, he may break out. He’s someone you’d take a chance on.”
  • One Angels exec expects to see Scioscia back in the dugout for the Halos next season.  “It would be shocking for me,” said the executive. “I know there have been some issues, but Mike is one of the best, and that’s widely recognized. Guys like Sosh don’t come along very often, which is why he has the long-term contract that he does.“But I suppose crazier things have happened.”  Scioscia is signed to a lucrative contract through 2018.
  • The Red Sox could consider Ed Wade as they seek experienced front office help.  There has also been talk that the Sox would consider Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava, but that would require LaCava being offered a bigger title.
  • Rays bench coach Dave Martinez may now be the front-runner for the Astros job because they are using Tampa Bay as their model.  Red Sox bench coach Tim Bogar also has the Rays background and is tight with former Astros second baseman Craig Biggio, who is on the panel that will pick the next manager.

Heyman On Hamilton, Upton, Peavy, Victorino

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Earlier today, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com checked in with an American League executive to get his predictions on what kind of deals this winter's top free agents might get.  Here are some highlights..

  • The exec sees Josh Hamilton getting a five-year, $150MM deal, giving him a guaranteed average annual value of $30MM and eclipsing the record set by Alex Rodriguez's ten-year, $275MM pact.  The Rangers aren't known for giving out excessively-long deals, meaning that he would likely have to take five years to stay in Texas.  One person in the know wondered if the Rangers would even go to five to keep the outfielder.
  • Executives believe that the Rays will make the qualifying offer of around $13MM for B.J. Upton as his nice all-around season should net him at least a four-year deal elsewhere.  The exec sees $60MM over five years for Upton, but Heyman notes that it's a pretty good center field market with Michael Bourn and Shane Victorino also out there.
  • White Sox pitcher Jake Peavy could get a two year deal worth $25-30MM in the opinion of the AL exec.  Heyman adds that it isn't hard to see the Dodgers making a play for Peavy after years of watching him dominate for the Padres.
  • The executive thinks Dodgers outfielder Shane Victorino could fetch a two-year, $25MM deal and Heyman sees the Nationals, Mets, Braves, Phillies, and Giants as possible fits.  However, he'll have to lower his expectations after originally seeking a five-year deal.
  • The AL exec sees Angels pitcher Zack Greinke getting $125MM over six years.  Nats pitcher Edwin Jackson is in line for a four-year, $55MM deal, according to the exec, though Heyman thinks he'll get less. 

Olney On Price, Andrus, Leyland

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Some talent evaluators believe Rays left-hander David Price could be traded this winter, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports. Here’s the latest from Olney, who runs down potential suitors for Price in his latest column…

  • Price’s trade value will never be higher than it will be this winter, Olney writes. However, the left-hander’s salary will rise considerably from $4.35MM following his Cy Young-caliber 2012 season. This means the budget-conscious Rays will probably decide to part with Price at some point between now and when he hits free agency after the 2015 season. “There will be a day when the Rays trade him,” Olney writes. 
  • Tampa Bay could seek up-the-middle players for Price, who has extraordinary trade value as a controllable top-of-the-rotation left-hander.
  • There’s a wide expectation that the Rangers will trade Elvis Andrus this winter. But Andrus isn’t a great fit for the Rays given his salary and service time, so they’d presumably ask about shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar in talks for Price.
  • It’s hard to imagine the Royals obtaining Price from the Rays without giving up Wil Myers, Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas or Eric Hosmer, Olney writes.
  • Though the Tigers aren’t a strong defensive team their pitchers haven’t complained publicly about the glovework behind them. Olney credits Detroit’s player and manager Jim Leyland for this display of support.

Astros Notes: Martinez, Bogar, Geith

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It was on this day in 2007 that J.R. Towles set a new Astros team record by recording eight RBIs in one game, an 18-1 Houston win over the Cardinals.  The Astros had high hopes for Towles as their catcher of the future, but Towles never developed, hitting just .187/.267/.315 in 484 plate appearances from 2007-2011.  The catcher spent this season playing for the Twins' Triple-A affiliate.

Here's the latest out of Houston…

  • Rays bench coach Dave Martinez and Red Sox bench coach Tim Bogar "are [the] front runners" to become the next Astros manager, tweets Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  The Astros were known to want their new manager in place by next week, though that could be delayed if their choice was working for a team going to the postseason.  Interim manager Tony DeFrancesco, Nationals third base coach Bo Porter and Larry Bowa have all also interviewed for the job, with Bowa already dropping out of contention.
  • The Astros announced the acquisition of left-hander Theron Geith from the Rays, completing the August 31 trade that sent Ben Francisco to Tampa Bay.  Geith, 23, was a 39th-round pick for the Rays in the 2011 draft and posted a 2.98 ERA, an 8.1 K/9 and a 4.45 K/BB ratio in 31 relief appearances for high-A ball Charlotte this season.
  • You can keep up on all the breaking news out of Houston on MLBTR's Astros-specific Facebook page, Twitter and RSS feeds.

Poll: Should B.J. Upton Get A Qualifying Offer?

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B.J. Upton is in line for a multiyear contract when he hits free agency this winter, and it's not easy to envision a return to Tampa Bay. The Rays habitually operate with one of the game's lowest payrolls, which means they don’t do much of their spending on the top free agents available. 

Upton, who earns $7MM this year, will obtain a raise on his next contract. Recent estimates from general managers range from $27MM over three years to $70MM over five years, according to Jerry Crasnick. If that's Upton's market value, it's hard to see the Rays winning the bidding. After all, their best-paid player, James Shields, earns a base salary of $7.5MM in 2012.

But executive VP of baseball operations Andrew Friedman can still extend Upton a qualifying offer. Unless the Rays make Upton a qualifying offer they won’t be eligible to obtain draft pick compensation for their longtime center fielder. If they do make him an offer, he’d either accept the one-year contract or the Rays would get a draft pick in 2013. 

While $13MM-plus — the value of a qualifying offer — is likely more than a small-market team would like to spend on Upton, he’d have trade value at that salary. The Rays, who once acquired Rafael Soriano after he unexpectedly accepted arbitration, could make a similar deal involving Upton. 

From Upton’s standpoint, the open market might be preferable to a one-year qualifying offer. He figures to get multiyear contract offers, even if he’s tied to draft pick compensation in a market flush with strong alternatives in center field. So the most likely scenario has Upton declining the qualifying offer and setting his former team up for draft pick compensation. It’s a risk, but one the Rays might be willing to take. What should they do?

Should the Rays make B.J. Upton a qualifying offer after the season?
Yes 61.18% (3,683 votes)
No 38.82% (2,337 votes)
Total Votes: 6,020

East Notes: Girardi, Nationals, Rays, Bay

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Division leaders and their rivals are squaring off today in both the AL and NL East. With the Yankees looking to pad their four-game lead over the Rays in their rubber match and the Braves looking to pull within 5.5 games of the front-running Nationals with a sweep, here are the notes, quotes, and song lyrics from the East:

  • GM Brian Cashman reiterated Joe Girardi will manage the Yankees next year, according to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Cashman was specifically asked, if in his mind, Girardi will be the manager regardless of what happens. "Yup," was Cashman's reply.
  • The Nationals aren't letting the Stephen Strasburg controversy and the recent skid in Atlanta dampen their enthusiasm, according to the Washington Post's James Wagner. Mark DeRosa is the most vital presence in keeping the clubhouse loose with Wagner calling him part team dad and part team comedian.
  • The Nationals' season is of historic proportions, writes Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. With 1933 the last time a Washington franchise won a league title and the District of Columbia having seen two versions of the Senators come and go in the interim, Svrluga also gives a lesson in how to calculate magic numbers for those who might have already perfected the math behind RGIII's QB rating.
  • In addition to trying to make the playoffs, September is also about playing for awards and new contracts for the Rays, opines Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. 
  • Jason Bay told Pat Borzi of the New York Times that he doesn't believe the effects of two concussions are the cause of his disappointing season. Manager Terry Collins hinted that was the case before the Mets' series in Milwaukee. Bay responded, "Terry’s asked me that, and I have nothing to quantify that with. How do you know? I don’t feel like it has. A lot of people look for a lot of reasons as to why things may or may not have come down as they historically have. Albeit that’s a viable scenario, but I can’t tell you from one day to the next how it felt. Those things did occur, but if I knew the answer, I would have fixed it by now.”
  • There is no easy fix for the Red Sox as they begin the long task of rebuilding their roster, writes the Boston Herald's John Tomase who provided a critique of the franchise from ownership to the farm system.
  • It has been a surprising year for Bobby Valentine and Buck Showalter, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. No one could have predicted, even himself Sherman admits, the seasons the two managers have experienced.
  • In a separate article, Sherman believes starting pitching will determine the Yankees' post-season fate.
  • GM Alex Anthopoulos confirmed to reporters the Blue Jays are exploring moving their Triple-A club to Buffalo from Las Vegas, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. This would, in effect, bump the Mets, currently affiliated with Buffalo, to Las Vegas.
  • Rays' manager Joe Maddon summed up his team's offensive problems by turning to song, reports the Tampa Bay Times' Topkin. "Again, we've sang this song," Maddon said. "I'm sure we could make a nice country and western song out of this whole thing. Between your dog and your pickup, we came up short again. We came up short agin." Unfortunately, Maddon will not be eligible in the songwriting category at the Country Music Awards tomorrow night.

Rosenthal On Yankees, Playoffs, Sabermetrics

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The Yankees enter play today with a one-game lead over the Orioles and four games over the Rays. And, it's a good thing this isn't your father's Yankees, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com. If George Steinbrenner was alive today, Rosenthal believes he might have fired manager Joe Girardi after blowing a ten-game lead in the AL East and replaced him with the likes of Lou Piniella. Hal Steinbrenner is almost the polar opposite of his father. So much so that, when Rosenthal asked Brian Cashman of the potential fallout that might occur if the team fails to reach the playoffs, the Yankees' GM said, "We have objective, patient ownership." Also from Rosenthal's column:

  • The new schedule hasn't been a cure-all for small market teams like the Rays. Rosenthal suggests one way to mitigate the Rays’ disadvantage would be to scale revenue sharing so they would receive a greater percentage than a low-revenue club such as the Indians, who compete in a division with lower payrolls.
  • A criticism of the new playoff system is Wild Card teams who have better records than division winners are penalized in the seeding of the Division Series. Rosenthal's solution is to wait until after the Wild Card game to seed the Division Series.
  • The AL CY Young Award voting will be a test of how accepted advanced statistics are by the Baseball Writers Association of America. Rosenthal points out the last eight AL pitchers to either lead or tie for the lead in those categories, like the Rays' David Price this year, each have won the award. The Tigers' Justin Verlander meanwhile leads in wins above replacement and Chris Sale of the White Sox leads in ERA+. Price is tops, however, in quality of opponents faced, based on the rankings of Vince Gennaro, president of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR).
  • Larry Bowa's interview for the Astros' managerial vacancy is a good sign, as rival executives have worried that GM Jeff Luhnow is surrounding himself with too many like-minded sabermetric types rather than building a diverse baseball operations department.
  • The Marlins may have difficulty in sticking with their plan to keep Emilio Bonifacio in center field, play Donovan Solano at second, and make the acquisition of a third baseman their top priority. Rosenthal points out the market for third basemen is bare, so one alternative for the Marlins is to acquire an outfielder and move Bonifacio back to third base.
  • Look for the Rays to exercise their $2.5MM option on Fernando Rodney. Rodney is bidding to become only the second reliever in history (Dennis Eckersley in 1990) to have a season of 40 or more saves and an ERA under 1.00. Rodney leads baseball with 43 saves and his ERA is 0.66.
  • The Cubs will look again this offseason to move Alfonso Soriano, who is one home run and one RBI shy of his first 30-homer, 100-RBI season since 2005. If the Cubs fail to receive a sufficient offer, they could always bring back Soriano, owed $36MM over the next two years, and try to move him at the deadline again. Rosenthal cited the example of Carlos Lee of how it is easier to deal an overpriced player the closer he gets to the end of his contract.

Quick Hits: Pirates, Upton, Angels, Wright, Mets

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Sunday night linkage..

  • “I don’t think it’s ever fair to speculate on people’s jobs … My approach has always been to fully support the team we have in place, and when it’s time to make a change, we make a change," said Pirates owner Bob Nutting to Rob Biertempfel and Karen Price of The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review when asked if there would be any front office or coaching staff changes after the season.
  • Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com surveyed four MLB execs about B.J. Upton's free agent outlook, and their estimates varied greatly. A National League GM predicted sees a three-year, $27MM deal for Upton while the other estimates ranged from four years at $50MM to five years at $70MM. The Rangers, Nationals, Phillies, Braves, Red Sox, Yankees, Reds, Giants, and Cubs are among the teams that could be in need of outfield help this winter.
  • Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto says he is not ready to call this year's team a disappointment, writes Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Dipoto also declined to discuss what owner Arte Moreno might be feeling about this season after investing in Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson over the winter and trading for Zack Greinke in July.
  • Dave Cameron of Fangraphs believes that the Mets should exercise David Wright's option rather than extend him given his second-half slump. By picking up his reasonably-priced $16MM option, the Mets could buy themselves more time and properly evaluate whether he is worth a hefty extension.

Mike Axisa contributed to this post.

Rosenthal On Upton, Soriano, Olt, Porter

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Highlights from the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..

  • At the age of 28, B.J. Upton will be the youngest outfielder on the open market this winter.  Rosenthal believes that Upton figures to land a deal of at least five years and virtually every NL East team could pursue him.  The Marlins in particular could show strong interest as Dan Jennings was the Rays' scouting director when they drafted him in 2002.  Earlier today, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com checked in with four MLB execs who had varied opinions on what kind of deal Upton will get this offseason.
  • Rafael Soriano could opt-out of his three-year, $35MM deal at the end of this season in pursuit of a larger deal, but that might not be a wise choice.  That would call for Soriano to forfeit his $14MM salary in 2013 and the Yankees would definitely make him a qualifying offer (around $13MM) that would require a team to give up draft pick compensation to sign him.  Historically, that has hurt the value of free agent relievers.
  • The Rangers had little interest in parting with Mike Olt at the deadline but some rival execs think that they'll be more willing to move him this offseason.  While the Rangers have Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli as free agents and may like Olt to be a part of their offensive core going forward, he could have tremendous value as many teams are in search of a strong third base option. 
  • Don't be surprised if the Marlins talk to Nationals third base coach Bo Porter again in the event that they fire Ozzie Guillen.  Earlier this week, the Astros met with Porter, making him the first person to interview for the managerial vacancy.
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