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Rays, Rangers, Diamondbacks Interested In Catchers

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With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, there are still many moving pieces. Joel Sherman of The New York Post (Twitter links) reports that the Rays, Marlins, Rangers and Diamondbacks are in the catching market, with Austin Hedges of the Pirates a speculative fit. It was reported in June that the Marlins were keeping an eye on the catching market.

Hedges, 30, has never provided much offensively, with a career batting line of .189/.247/.323 dating back to 2015. This year’s line of .180/.237/.230 is even lower than his career output. But he’s always garnered attention as a glove-first backstop. He has career tallies of 83 Defensive Runs Saved and a grade of 77.3 from the FanGraphs framing metric. The former figure is tops in the majors for that stretch while the latter places him third.

Despite that strong defensive work, there would be logic in the Pirates moving on. They are currently nine games out of a playoff spot with a record of 47-58. Hedges is on a one-year, $5MM deal and is an impending free agent. They have already traded another impending free agent in Carlos Santana and reportedly have a deal in place to send Rich Hill and Ji Man Choi to the Padres as they approach the open market as well. With catching prospects Henry Davis and Endy Rodríguez already at the big league level, it makes sense to send Hedges elsewhere and let those two take the reins.

The listed suitors all make sense due to recent injuries. The Rays lost Francisco Mejía to a left knee MCL sprain about two weeks ago, leaving them with Christian Bethancourt and René Pinto as the only healthy backstops on their 40-man roster. The Diamondbacks are in a similar position after placing Gabriel Moreno on the IL about a week ago due to shoulder inflammation, leaving them with Carson Kelly and José Herrera. The Rangers recently lost Jonah Heim to the injured list due to a wrist issue and surgery is still possible, leaving them with Mitch Garver and Sam Huff as their health options on the roster.

Any of those clubs would be a sensible addition for extra catching help, as they are each currently in possession of a playoff spot. Apart from Hedges, some catchers that could be available include Yasmani Grandal, Elias Díaz, Joey Bart, Víctor Caratini, Iván Herrera, Tom Murphy and Omar Narváez.

Rays Acquire Adrian Sampson, Manuel Rodriguez From Cubs

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The Rays announced they have acquired pitchers Adrian Sampson and Manuel Rodriguez and international free agent bonus pool space from the Cubs for minor league pitcher Josh Roberson. Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic first reported the deal.

Sampson, 31, joined the Cubs’ rotation in late June last year as the team dealt with injuries to Marcus Stroman, Drew Smyly, and Wade Miley.  The journeyman righty was surprisingly able to stick, putting together 19 starts with a 3.28 ERA.  Sampson’s low strikeout rate suggested that level of success was unsustainable, but it was enough for the Cubs to retain him on a $1.9MM arbitration deal.

After losing the Cubs’ fifth starter battle out of camp this year to Hayden Wesneski, Sampson was optioned to Triple-A.  In May he hit the IL after a meniscal debridement procedure on his right knee and was bounced from the team’s 40-man roster once he recovered.  To retain his career-best salary, Sampson could not reject the Cubs’ outright.  Sampson has struggled mightily in his 23 innings at Triple-A this year, but the Cubs were able to clear his remaining $633K salary by including Rodriguez and the international free agent bonus pool space.

The Rays are the next stop for Sampson, who pitched in KBO in 2020 and was with the Rangers, Mariners, and Pirates before that.  Until the Rays decide to add Sampson to their 40-man roster, he’ll head to the Triple-A Durham Bulls to serve as extra depth.  Yesterday, the Rays picked up Aaron Civale in a trade with the Guardians, sending Taj Bradley back to Triple-A as a result.

Though Sampson has nearly 300 big league innings to his name, Rodriguez could be the bigger get for Tampa Bay.  Rodriguez, a 26-year-old righty reliever, logged a total of 31 1/3 innings out of the Cubs’ bullpen in 2021-22 to limited success.  The Cubs bumped him from the 40-man roster in January to make room for Julian Merryweather, and Rodriguez cleared waivers and was sent outright to Iowa.

The Cubs have been unable to find room for Rodriguez back on their 40-man or in their big league bullpen this year, despite a relief corps that has struggled at times.  Rodriguez worked around 96-97 miles per hour in the Majors, and this year at Triple-A he’s posted interesting numbers despite a BABIP-inflated 4.42 ERA.  In 38 2/3 innings, Rodriguez has managed to punch out nearly a third of batters faced, though he’s walked more than 10%.  He also sports a groundball rate of 58.4%, which has resulted in only two home runs allowed all year.  Like so many Rays relief pickups, this could be an underrated move.

The Cubs add Roberson, a 27-year-old righty reliever who has toiled in the minors since being drafted in the 12th round out of University of North Carolina Wilmington back in 2017.  The Rays picked Roberson up as the player to be named later to complete the deal that sent Louis Head to Miami in November 2021.  Roberson reached Triple-A for the first time this year, and has posted a 4.50 ERA, 25.7 K%, 13.2% BB%, and 41.1% groundball rate in 36 innings.

Statistically at least, Rodriguez is having a better year at Triple-A than Roberson.  Perhaps the Cubs have a good scouting report on Roberson; before the season Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote of “slam dunk big league stuff undercut by 20-grade command.”  The salary relief the Cubs are getting on Sampson is likely a factor here in this low-profile deadline day trade.

Rays Option Taj Bradley

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The Rays are optioning right-hander Taj Bradley to Triple-A Durham, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). Reliever Ryan Thompson will be recalled to take his roster spot for now, though a spot will soon be required for Aaron Civale, having been acquired from the Guardians earlier today. The Rays have now announced the moves. The club also selected righty Erasmo Ramírez yesterday, optioning righty Calvin Faucher in a corresponding move.

Tampa has dealt with a number of injuries to its rotation this year, with Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen both out for the remainder of the season due to their injuries. Josh Fleming is also on the 60-day injured list and has an uncertain timeline. That has seen them roll with a rotation of Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, Zach Eflin and Bradley of late. Eflin recently required an MRI on his left knee, which was an ominous development given his history of knee issues, but he’s been cleared to start Tuesday.

Around that foursome, the Rays have been occasionally deploying some bullpen games, but they added Civale into the mix with a trade today. That could have still left room for Bradley to stick around, but it seems that Tampa would prefer to send him to Durham to get some work in there. He came into this season as one of the top prospects in the league but hasn’t quite made a smooth transition to the big leagues. He has allowed 5.67 earned runs per nine innings through 16 starts so far, though there seems to be a lot of bad luck in there. He’s striking out 30% of opponents while walking 7.9%, both of those numbers being better than league average, but his .342 batting average on balls in play and 64.8% strand rate and both on the unlucky side.

ERA estimators such as his 4.15 FIP and 3.53 SIERA paint a nicer picture of Bradley’s debut season thus far, but he will be bumped off the active roster nonetheless. This won’t impact him from a service time perspective, as he had already been optioned a few times earlier in the season and wasn’t going to get a full year of service time here in 2023 even before this move. With tomorrow’s trade deadline looming, there’s still a chance for the Rays to add another starter, with hurlers like Jack Flaherty, Michael Lorenzen and Eduardo Rodriguez just some of those thought to be available.

But for now, it seems the rotation spot will go to Zack Littell, as Topkin relays the righty will start on Friday. Littell had been working as a reliever earlier in the year but recently made some starts as an opener, with his workload gradually increasing. Seven of his last eight outings have been longer than a single inning and he tossed five frames in yesterday’s contest, allowing two earned runs on eight hits, striking out four while walking none.

He was a starter in the minors earlier in his career but has been a primary reliever since 2019. It’s unclear if the Rays plan on him moving to a starter’s role permanently, but it wouldn’t be the first time they went down this road. Both Springs and Rasmussen were working out of the bullpen before the Rays started stretching them out, successfully moving them both to rotation jobs before their current injuries. On the season as a whole, Littell has a 4.85 ERA in 29 2/3 innings, though with a .376 BABIP, 22.7% strikeout rate, 3.8% walk rate and 46.9% ground ball rate.

Ramírez, 33, signed a one-year deal with the Nationals in the offseason. But he posted a 6.33 ERA though 23 appearances and got released, landing with the Rays on a minor league deal. He worked a multi-inning role for the Bulls, tossing 23 innings over nine appearances with a 5.87 ERA. His .383 BABIP and 68% strand rate point to some bad luck while his peripherals were strong, with a 28.7% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 45.2% ground ball rate.

Guardians Trade Aaron Civale To Rays

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3:30pm: The Guardians and Rays have both formally announced the trade. It’s a straight one-for-one swap.

2:33pm: The Rays and Guardians are in agreement on a trade sending right-hander Aaron Civale from Cleveland to Tampa Bay, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Top first base prospect Kyle Manzardo is headed back to Cleveland in the deal.

Civale, 28, is in the midst of a fine season and earning just $2.6MM with another two years of club control remaining beyond the 2023 season. The Guardians have been mulling the idea of shopping him, given their need for offense, their rich stockpile of pitching talent, and the general demand for rotation help throughout the league.

The Rays, needing rotation help with Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen falling to season-ending injuries — Tommy John surgery and flexor surgery, respectively — have been in the market for rotation help throughout the month. They previously had interest in Jordan Montgomery before his trade to the Rangers and in Cubs righty Marcus Stroman before Chicago won eight straight games and went from expected seller to potential buyer.

Civale will fill that need for the Rays, stepping into the rotation alongside Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Taj Bradley. The Rays have been regularly deploying bullpen games and using openers since Springs and Rasmussen went down, but Civale will give them a conventional — and quite strong — five-man rotation moving forward. He’s sitting on a 2.34 ERA in 77 innings this season, and while the right-hander’s below-average 19% strikeout rate, tiny .242 average on balls in play and huge 82.7% strand rate all make that ERA seem bound for some regression, he’s nonetheless a solid big league starter.

In 433 career innings, Civale touts a 3.77 ERA, 21.1% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 42.4% ground-ball rate. While he doesn’t throw hard, averaging just 91.8 mph on his heater, Civale has long boasted excellent command, limited hard contact well enough and posted enough swinging-strikes with his versatile repertoire to find plenty of success. He uses a cutter as his primary fastball but also has a traditional four-seamer and a sinker in his quiver.

Civale’s go-to breaking pitch has been a curveball that has graded as an excellent offering throughout his career. Opponents have batted just .182/.215/.299 in the 358 times the right-hander has finished off a plate appearance with that pitch — including a .186/.205/.302 showing in 2023. A hefty 36.3% of those plate appearances have yielded a strikeout.  Civale will throw very occasional sliders and changeups as well, but his curve functions as far and away his most frequent offspeed/breaking offering.

Civale is a clear upgrade to the Rays’ staff and could help them through the 2025 season, but he’s not without his own red flags and durability concerns. He’s avoided major injury and hasn’t had any surgeries, but Civale has never topped the 164 2/3 innings he pitched in the minors back in 2017 — his first full season as a professional. Since that time, he’s been on the injured list (minors and majors alike) with a litany of issues, including a lat strain, shoulder tightness, a wrist sprain, a finger sprain, forearm inflammation and an oblique strain (earlier this season).

There’s little doubting that he’s a quality performer when healthy, but Civale has only reached 100 innings in one Major League season and has only twice reached 20 starts. On the other hand, Civale’s frequent trips to the injured list have stunted his earning power in arbitration. He’s earning just $2.6MM this season, and his subsequent pair of arbitration raises will be based off that sum, which should tamp down his earnings a bit further (at least relative to other starters throughout the game).

In exchange for those two and a half seasons of affordable control, the Rays will  part with one of the top bats in their system. Manzardo, 23, was Tampa Bay’s second-round pick in 2021 and quickly hit his way onto top-100 prospect rankings throughout the sport. He’s had a rough go in his first run at Triple-A as a 22-year-old, hitting just .238/.342/.442 with 11 homers in 313 plate appearances. Manzardo is walking at a huge 13.4% clip, however, and has a lower-than-average 20.8% strikeout rate despite facing older and more experienced competition. He’s also just one season removed from hitting a combined .327/.426/.617 with nearly as many walks (59) as strikeouts (65) between High-A and Double-A.

Manzardo entered the season as a consensus top-100 prospect, and even with a lackluster showing in Triple-A so far he’s still quite highly touted. He ranks as the game’s No. 31 prospect at FanGraphs, No. 37 prospect at MLB.com and No. 69 at Baseball America on each publications midseason, post-draft rankings. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen writes in his scouting report that “every aspect” of Manzardo’s profile at the plate is plus, with the exception of his raw power, which is closer to average. He’s lauded for keen strike zone knowledge, consistent hard contact, an all-fields approach, his bat control and a potentially plus-plus hit tool that should allow him to hit for a high average with high-end on-base percentages.

It’s not yet clear when Manzardo will get his first big league opportunity, but it won’t be immediately. He’s been on the minor league injured list since early this month with a shoulder issue, though Cleveland clearly doesn’t believe it to be a major concern. He’ll be a candidate for a call-up late in the season and certainly will have a chance to break the Opening Day roster for the Guardians in 2024.

Since Cleveland isn’t getting an immediate big leaguer in return, there’s little doubting that this move hurts their chances of squeaking out a postseason berth in 2023. The American League Central has been the game’s most feeble division all year, and Cleveland made this trade of one of its best starters despite the fact that Shane Bieber was recently placed on the 60-day injured list and despite the fact that the Guards are only a half-game behind the Twins in the standings. That speaks volumes about how the front office views the club’s chances of faring in a potential postseason series even if they’d managed to overtake a middling and de facto first-place Twins club.

With Civale out of the picture, the Guardians’ rotation will consist of Noah Syndergaard and rookies Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen. The latter trio has all found immediate success in the Majors, and each is generally living up to his own top prospect billing. The hope for Cleveland will be that righty Cal Quantrill can return from his current bout of shoulder inflammation sooner than later. Both Bieber and right-hander Triston McKenzie are on the 60-day IL and aren’t expected back anytime soon. Depth options in Triple-A include Cody Morris, Joey Cantillo, Hunter Gaddis and Chris Vallimont — all of whom are on the 40-man roster.

The acquisition of Manzardo also has some implications for breakout Guardians star Josh Naylor, who’s turned in an excellent .308/.347/.504 slash and 15 homers this year. Naylor has spent the bulk of his time at first base, but he could well be pushed to an outfield corner whenever Manzardo is called up for his debut. Manzardo is widely regarded as a first-base-only prospect, whereas Naylor has his share of experience in the outfield. It’s possible the two could eventually split the first base and designated hitter duties, but Cleveland also has veteran Josh Bell currently playing on a two-year deal. Bell can turn down a player option for 2024 and return to free agency this winter, but his underwhelming .233/.319/.385 slash makes that feel rather unlikely.

Positional alignment to the side, the Guardians have clearly been focused on adding a controllable bat to their system for some time now, just as the Rays have been looking for some quality, affordable innings to round out the rotation behind a strong quartet. In that sense, today’s one-for-one swap fills a goal for both parties and allows each to deal from a position of depth in order to satiate that need. The Rays get the more immediate boost to their roster, but the hope among Cleveland brass is surely that Manzardo will be holding down a key spot in the lineup long after Civale would’ve otherwise reached free agency in the 2025-26 offseason.

Zach Eflin Avoids Injured List, Cleared To Start Tuesday

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Rays fans were bracing for bad news when righty Zach Eflin exited his most recent start after four innings and went for an MRI on his left knee, but Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that he’s expected to avoid the injured list entirely. Eflin threw a 25-pitch bullpen session over the weekend and is now slated to start Tuesday against the Yankees. He’s not expected to have any limitations on his workload tomorrow.

It’s a sigh of relief for a Rays club that already lost Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen for the season. A third major injury would’ve surely accelerated Tampa Bay’s pursuit for rotation help, which has been ongoing, but it seems Eflin has avoided an injury of any real note. The right-hander’s chronic knee issues are well known; he’s spoken openly about them in the past, underwent surgery on both knees in 2016 and had a second surgery on his right knee in 2021.

That history of knee issues didn’t dissuade the Rays from making an aggressive bid to sign Eflin in free agency, ultimately inking him on a three-year, $40MM contract. He’s in the midst of perhaps the finest season of his career, tossing 116 1/3 innings of 3.64 ERA ball with a strong 25.2% strikeout rate, a masterful 3.7% walk rate and a career-high 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’ll remain in the rotation alongside Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow and Taj Bradley.

The Rays were in the market for starting pitching help even before Eflin’s injury scare, and it stands to reason they’ll still be poking around that market, albeit with less urgency than if Eflin had endured a significant injury. Tampa Bay has been connected to the Cardinals’ available starters, and while Jordan Montgomery has since been traded to the Rangers, righty Jack Flaherty remains on the block. They were also tied to Marcus Stroman a few weeks ago, but that was before the Cubs rattled off an eight-game winning streak that thrust them back into the competition in the NL Central. He’s now unlikely to be moved. Lance Lynn, another Rays target, has since been traded to the Dodgers.

Even with those misses, there are still several names available. Michael Lorenzen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Aaron Civale and old friend Rich Hill are just some of the many pitchers whose names have been bandied about the rumor circuit over the past week or so.

Cardinals Rumors: Montgomery, Flaherty, Bullpen, Outfield

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The Cardinals are perhaps the most intriguing seller of this trade deadline. The preseason favorite for the NL Central expected to build upon a 93-win campaign in 2022, the team has failed to live up to expectations with a brutal 46-60 record that leaves them in last place in the division and ahead of only the Rockies and Nationals in the NL. With the club’s eyes turned toward the future, speculation has run rampant regarding many of the club’s interesting pieces, both those who are set to hit free agency after the season and those who are under team control longer-term.

Despite their status as the league’s premiere seller, the Cardinals have largely been quiet to this point with the trade deadline just over 48 hours away. While reports earlier in the week hinted at the possibility of a blockbuster involving third baseman Nolan Arenado, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly shut those rumors down yesterday. While Arenado may not be on the move, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently discussed a bevy of other rumors regarding the club’s options ahead of the trade deadline.

Most clearly positioned to move over the next two days are the club’s duo of mid-rotation rental starters: left-hander Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Jack Flaherty. Goold notes that both players, along with closer Jordan Hicks, are generating interest throughout the league, though the returns on each of those players, if traded by themselves, would reportedly not fit the mold of the Cardinals’ preferred return: controllable, major-league ready starting pitching.

That’s hardly a surprise, given controllable starters are typically regarded as some of the most valuable commodities in the sport. Given this, Goold indicates that the club could get creative and pair rental players with younger, controllable pieces would yield their desired return. In particular, Goold name-checks outfielders Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson alongside relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley as longer-term pieces who could be moved. In terms of potential Cardinals targets, Goold references both Yankees prospect Clayton Beeter and Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, though Goold cautions that Gilbert would require a “high-ceiling return.”

Recent reporting had previously indicated trade interest in Burleson from multiple clubs, and Goold reaffirms the Yankees’ previously reported interest in Carlson. Goold adds that, in addition to Carlson, the Yankees have interest in Hicks, who has also drawn interest from the Rangers. Additionally, Goold notes that the market for Flaherty and Montgomery includes the Marlins, who have scouted Flaherty in person this trade season, while the Rays are noted to have interest in St. Louis’s available pitchers more generally.

While Miami is seemingly focused on Flaherty among the club’s duo of rental starters, Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported last night that talks surrounding Montgomery were “gaining momentum” and that a deal was becoming increasingly likely. While Morosi didn’t specify which team the Cardinals were discussing Montgomery with, he noted that both the Diamondbacks and Orioles have engaged in discussions with St. Louis in recent days.

Rays, Diamondbacks Showing Interest In Jordan Hicks

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The D-Backs and Rays are among the clubs with interest in Cardinals reliever Jordan Hicks, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). The Rangers were tied to the hard-throwing righty this afternoon. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this afternoon that the Yankees also had some interest in Hicks.

Hicks has seemed a likely trade candidate for a while. He’s an impending free agent on a St. Louis club that is openly turning its attention to 2024. He’s having a good season, posting a 3.67 ERA through 41 2/3 innings and climbing back to a high-leverage role. Hicks offers a rare blend of strikeouts (31.2%) and grounders (58.3%). Even with below-average control, his power arsenal is obviously appealing to clubs.

A few days ago, it seemed as if Hicks might surprisingly come off the market. The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported that his camp was in talks with the Cardinals about a potential multi-year extension. However, Goold reported yesterday those conversations hadn’t gained much traction.

Feinsand suggests an extension hasn’t entirely been ruled out. However, Woo echoed Goold’s reporting this afternoon, writing that talks have stalled and a trade seems probable.

Virtually any team with postseason aspirations this season could be a viable suitor. Even clubs that don’t need back-end bullpen help could add a reliever to the middle innings. Arizona has a stronger need than Tampa Bay on paper. The D-Backs rank 23rd in bullpen ERA (4.57) and 19th in strikeout rate (23.2%). The Rays are seventh in ERA (3.74) and 26th in strikeout percentage (22.1%). The Rays’ overall bullpen numbers are dragged down a bit by how often they rely on relievers and bulk pitchers following openers. Only the A’s and Giants have used their bullpen for more innings, which will naturally weigh down their dominance on a rate basis.

Of course, there’s no indication the bidding for Hicks is down to Texas, New York, Arizona and Tampa Bay. The Cardinals’ front office is presumably in conversations with a number of clubs about their trade candidates. Hicks joins Chris Stratton as impending free agent relievers on the St. Louis roster. Starters Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are also headed to the open market and likely to be dealt this summer. Their markets are mostly unreported, but each of Texas, Arizona and Tampa Bay is also known to be looking for rotation help. Shortstop Paul DeJong figures to move as well.

Those short-term assets — paired with Dylan Carlson, who has gotten increasingly squeezed out of the outfield picture — have seemed St. Louis’ most likely trade pieces. Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman have drawn interest from other clubs, but Woo unsurprisingly writes the Cardinals aren’t interested in trading them. That’s also true of power-hitting second baseman Nolan Gorman, who has five seasons of club control beyond this one.

Eduardo Rodriguez Drawing Widespread Trade Interest

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With the trade deadline now just a few days away, Tigers starter Eduardo Rodriguez is drawing plenty of trade interest. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that scouts from several rival clubs having been keeping an eye on him, with the Rangers, Rays, Reds, Phillies and Diamondbacks among those keeping tabs.

It’s unsurprising that Rodriguez, 30, is garnering attention around the league. He’s been a solid major league starter for many years and is having arguably his best season to date. Coming into this year, he had thrown 947 2/3 innings with a 4.15 earned run average, striking out 23.9% of batters faced while walking 8.1% of them and keeping the ball on the ground at a 41.2% clip. Here in 2023, he has a 2.95 ERA, nudging his strikeout rate to 25.9% and lowering his walk rate to 6%, that latter number being a career best by a full point.

Those numbers would fit great in just about every rotation around the league. What makes his situation unique is his contract. He’s not a rental in a strict sense but will be treated similarly to one. The Tigers signed him to a five-year, $77MM deal going into 2022, but that deal gave him the ability to opt out after the second year. That opt-out opportunity is now just a few months away, when he will have to decide between hanging onto the three years and $49MM left on his contract versus returning to the open market.

The last time he was a free agent, he was coming off a season in which he had a 4.74 ERA and had rejected a qualifying offer. This time, it seems like he will have the ability to return to free agency with a stronger platform year and no QO attached, since players aren’t allowed to receive more than one in their careers. He will be two years older and the underlying numbers of his 2021 season were still strong, but all the factors taken into consideration would seem to point to him having a strong shot of getting past that $49MM guarantee in free agency. The most recent offseason saw mid-rotation pitchers like Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon get between $63MM and $72MM, with Rodriguez having an argument for being in that range as well.

With that being the case, it makes sense for the Tigers to consider moving him for talent that can help them in future seasons. Their record is currently 46-55, which only puts them 6.5 games off the lead in the weak AL Central, but FanGraphs only gives them a 1.7% chance of making the playoffs with Baseball Prospectus at 0.3%.

The tricky thing is that, unlike other rental players, there’s more downside for the acquiring club. Although Rodriguez is trending towards opting out, there’s a chance he could experience a downturn in results or suffer an injury that causes him to take the bird in the hand. That’s something that other clubs would have to take into consideration when discussing deals, and it’s possible the Tigers get a lesser return than if Rodriguez were simply in the final year of his contract. The injury question mark is always a factor with pitchers and certainly with Rodriguez, who has only once topped 160 innings in a season.

Complications aside, each of the listed clubs would surely love to have Rodriguez in their rotation for the stretch run. The Rangers have lost Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi to season-ending injuries, which has put a couple of dents in their depth. Dane Dunning has stepped up and has an ERA of 3.18 this year, but a 15.4% strikeout rate that casts some doubt on its sustainability. Martín Pérez and Andrew Heaney are each having lackluster seasons as well, with their respective ERAs hovering just under 5.00. They are still leading the AL West but the Astros are only two games back, with the Angels also aggressively making a push. They’ve already been connected to starters, with reported interest in Lance Lynn of the White Sox.

The Rays have some strong elements to their rotation with Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Taj Bradley and Zach Eflin in four spots, but Eflin has dealt with persistent knee issues in his career and underwent an MRI on his left knee yesterday. It’s unclear if that will be a serious problem, but they are already without Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen for the rest of the season, with Josh Fleming on the 60-day IL as well. Like the Rangers, they’ve also been connected to Lynn in their pursuit of more starting pitching. They have slipped behind Baltimore in the East but still hold the top Wild Card spot in the American League.

The Reds have known for some time to be in the market for pitching, which makes plenty of sense. They were hoping to have their rotation fronted by Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo but both have been on the IL for a while now with at least a few more weeks until their expected returns. Other starters like Justin Dunn and Connor Overton are on the IL with them. Luke Weaver is still clinging to a rotation spot despite his 7.20 ERA on the year, leaving plenty of room for an upgrade. They are currently holding a Wild Card spot and are just a game and a half behind the Brewers in the Central division.

The Phillies have a solid group of five in Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez, but their depth has been weakened by the Tommy John surgery of Andrew Painter and the struggles of Bailey Falter. The only member of their current rotation than can be optioned is Sanchez, who has a 2.98 ERA but a 4.06 FIP. But perhaps someone could wind up in the bullpen or they simply use a six-man rotation for a while. They currently hold one of the Wild Card spots in the tight NL race.

The Diamondbacks have a top-heavy rotation with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly at the front. Brandon Pfaadt was one of the top pitching prospects in the league coming into the year but has an 8.81 ERA through his first seven starts. Tommy Henry has a 4.01 ERA but with uninspiring peripherals and a 5.14 FIP. Ryne Nelson’s ERA is is 4.97. General manager Mike Hazen has already admitted the club will pursue pitching upgrades. It remains to be seen how aggressive they will be since they’ve been struggling lately, but they are still just half a game out of the playoff picture.

Zach Eflin Headed For MRI On Left Knee

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Rays right-hander Zach Eflin exited today’s game after just four innings, and he’s now headed for an MRI after experiencing discomfort in his left knee, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. It’s an ominous development both for a pitcher with chronic knee issues and a Rays rotation that has already been clobbered by injuries in 2023.

Eflin, 29, signed a three-year deal worth a guaranteed $40MM in Tampa Bay this offseason — the largest free-agent expenditure (though not the largest overall contract) in Rays history. He entered play with a 3.36 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and sensational 3.6% walk rate in 112 1/3 innings — already his highest total since 2019. However, Eflin was hit hard today, yielding five runs on seven hits and a walk, and he departed after four innings.

Eflin has spoken openly about his battles with knee problems that date back to before he was even drafted. He underwent surgery to repair the patellar tendon in both knees back in 2016, and in 2021 he underwent a second surgery on his right knee. Further problems in that right knee sidelined Eflin for more than two months last summer.

That Eflin’s current issue is in his left knee and not his twice-repaired right knee isn’t likely to be a source of much comfort for the Rays and their fans. The team was surely wary of the risk of renewed knee problems when signing Eflin, though his performance to this point in the season does plenty to highlight why the Tampa Bay front office was willing to take that gamble.

The Rays are already dealing with several notable injuries in the rotation. Shane Baz had Tommy John surgery last September and isn’t expected to pitch in 2023. Jeffrey Springs underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year and won’t return until 2024. Drew Rasmussen’s season is also over, owing to surgery to repair a flexor tear. Lefty Josh Fleming is on the 60-day injured list due to an elbow issue.

Tampa Bay is already known to be on the hunt for rotation upgrades, and any absence of note for Eflin would only hasten their pursuits. They’ve been linked to the Cardinals’ rental starters and were reported this morning to be in talks with the White Sox on right-hander Lance Lynn.

With sudden uncertainty regarding Eflin’s health, the Rays’ only three healthy starters are Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow and rookie Taj Bradley. It’s a talented trio, but injuries have thinned out the team’s depth and contributed to the Rays’ slide in the standings after a dominant start to the season. President of baseball operations Erik Neander, GM Peter Bendix and the rest of the staff seem all but certain to augment the rotation between now and next Tuesday’s trade deadline.

White Sox Discussing Lance Lynn With Rays, Dodgers

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11:53am: The Sox and Rays are indeed discussing Lynn, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets, but a deal between the two parties is not yet seen as imminent. The Rays have interest in a number of starters and are in active talks on multiple starting pitchers.

Likewise, the White Sox aren’t locked in on the Rays alone as a potential trade partner for Lynn. Nightengale follows up by tweeting that the Dodgers remain interested in both Lynn and right-hander Lucas Giolito and continue to discuss both with the ChiSox.

With Dustin May out for the season and each of Clayton Kershaw, Ryan Pepiot, Noah Syndergaard and Walker Buehler on the injured list, the Dodgers have a trio of rookies (Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove) behind Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin in the rotation at the moment. All of the Dodgers’ Opening Day rotation members have been on the injured list at some point this season, so it’s only natural for them to explore upgrades — particularly as their collection of young starters continues to push their workloads to previously unreached levels.

9:49am: The White Sox and Rays are in active discussions on a trade regarding right-hander Lance Lynn, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The two teams have been exchanging names of potential minor leaguers in the swap.

Tampa Bay is one of the 10 teams on Lynn’s no-trade list, but talks have apparently advanced to the point where the White Sox have already approached him about the possibility of approving the deal. Nightengale adds that Lynn has informed the team he would waive that no-trade protection for a chance to pitch for a contending Rays club.

Lynn, 36, is in the second season of a two-year, $38MM extension he signed with the White Sox two years ago. The veteran right-hander was a durable an excellent pitcher for the Rangers and ChiSox from 2019-22, pitching to a combined 3.42 ERA with plus strikeout and walk rates in 571 innings during that time, but the 2023 season has been a struggle.

While Lynn is still missing bats at a high level (27.3% strikeout rate, 14% swinging-strike rate), he’s been more homer-prone this season that any point in his lengthy Major League career. The 6’5″ righty has yielded an average of 2.19 homers per nine innings pitched, which has contributed to what would be a career-worst 6.18 ERA on the season.

That mark is unsightly, of course, but Lynn has seen what’s surely an anomalous 21.5% of his fly-balls turn into home runs. That’s more than double his 10.1% career mark and nearly nine percentage points higher than the league average of 12.4%. Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize over larger samples, and any team acquiring Lynn would surely be hoping there’s regression in that regard. That seems inevitable; Lynn’s current 21.5% homer-to-flyball rate would be the fourth-highest mark of any pitcher in the past decade. Furthermore, one can imagine that getting out of the homer-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field would help to alleviate those home run woes.

The Rays didn’t look like a team that’d need to acquire outside help for the rotation early in the year. Tampa Bay began the season in dominant fashion, but the Rays have seen Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) and Drew Rasmussen (flexor surgery) go down with season-ending injuries. Depth starter Josh Fleming is on the 60-day IL due to an elbow issue.

At present, the Rays are running out a strong quartet of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and top prospect Taj Bradley. Lynn would slot into that group and give the Rays an upside play for the final spot in the rotation. At worst, he’d be a durable innings eater who could spare the bullpen and round out the rotation. At best, he could become the Rays’ latest pitching reclamation. Tampa Bay has a reputation for getting the best out of its pitchers — thanks to a combination of its renowned analytics department, advance scouting, coaching and player development — and if the Rays can get Lynn back into his 2019-22 form, he’d be a bona fide playoff-caliber starter.

Lynn’s contract contains an $18MM option for the 2024 season. There’s a $1MM buyout on that provision, making it a net $17MM decision. As it stands, he’s clearly trending toward a buyout, but with a big finish to the season it’s conceivable he could yet play his way into having that option picked up.

That’d be a steep price for the Rays of all teams, but Tampa Bay has shown increased willingness to spend in recent years. The Rays made a legitimate run at signing Freddie Freeman in free agency, reportedly putting forth a six-year offer in the $150MM range. They also extended Glasnow on a deal that’ll pay him $25MM next year and signed shortstop Wander Franco to an 11-year, $182MM deal. Even this past offseason’s signing of Eflin at three years and $40MM was a notable departure from the team’s typical stinginess on the open market.

Lynn is owed about $6.8MM of this year’s $18.5MM salary between now and the end of the season, plus at least that $1MM buyout on the option. Between that salary and his struggles with home runs, his trade value certainly isn’t close to where it might’ve been entering the season, but the Sox could sweeten their return by offering to pay down some or all of the remaining money he’s guaranteed in 2023.

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