Latest On Josh Donaldson
The Braves could lose third baseman Josh Donaldson in free agency, but they’re not going down without a fight. They’ve made the longtime star a four-year offer, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets. They join the Twins and Nationals as teams known to have made recent four-year proposals for Donaldson. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com said Thursday that all three teams seem willing to go to the four-year, $100MM range. The Dodgers and the Rangers can’t be counted out of the race, either, per Feinsand.
This has become an especially fascinating trip through free agency for Donaldson, who MLBTR predicted would sign a three-year, $75MM contract when the proceedings began. However, with fellow third baseman Anthony Rendon and a slew of other standout performers already off the market, the 34-year-old Donaldson is now easily the game’s premier player without a contract. And he partly controls the third base market, as teams that lose out on the Donaldson sweepstakes might pivot to a trade for the Cubs’ Kris Bryant or the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado with no other studs left in free agency.
In the Braves’ case, they could have the prospect capital to trade for Bryant or Arenado, though it remains to be seen whether they’ll go that route. The seven-year, $234MM Arenado’s still owed could prove too rich for their blood. Donaldson shouldn’t cost anywhere near that much in cash, nor would the Braves have to cough up young players for him, and they already know he can thrive in their uniform. The one-time MVP was an integral member of a 2019 Atlanta roster that took home its second consecutive NL East title.
Morosi: 50/50 Chance Of Nolan Arenado Trade
With the market showing a big appetite for star third basemen, the Rockies now appear to be increasingly likely to strike a trade involving Nolan Arenado. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports on Twitter that there’s now “roughly a 50/50 chance” of a deal coming together with one of the six teams to have expressed interest.
Oddsmaking of this sort is inherently ambiguous and non-verifiable, so skepticism is well warranted. And we heard just days ago that the Colorado organization hasn’t been especially aggressive in hammering out scenarios involving its biggest star. But if Morosi’s sources have an accurate read on the thinking of the Rockies’ leadership, then it’s at least now highly plausible that a swap could emerge. And that’d represent a notable development given the highly speculative nature of Arenado’s trade availability to this point. GM Jeff Bridich has previously made clear the team is open to considering proposals, but it has never seemed particularly likely that Arenado would be moved.
Notably, Arenado has full no-trade rights. But he has expressed a desire to win and may be willing to facilitate a deal if it means finding a better chance elsewhere. The Rox have decided against further payroll expansion and look to be in a bit of a bind when it comes to finding much-needed roster upgrades.
Even if that’s not a major complication, interested teams will be wary of giving up too much in trade capital for a contract that includes a post-2021 opt-out provision. It’d be one thing if Arenado was simply a high-cost player with two years of control, as is the case for Kris Bryant of the Cubs (another potential trade candidate, at least once his service-time grievance is wrapped up). But what’s worrisome in the Arenado deal is the combination of the threat of losing the player, in the event he performs well enough to opt out, with the fear of what it would mean if he doesn’t.
We just got open-market confirmation that the Rockies paid full boat for Arenado when they inked him last winter. Fellow star third bagger Anthony Rendon landed a seven-year, $245MM pact that just topped the $234MM promise Arenado received for the rights to the same number of would-be free agent campaigns. You could argue for days over which player is preferable — Rendon has outperformed Arenado in recent seasons, but also has had some health challenges in the past and is a bit older — but it seems fair to assess them both in the same general range of value.
Rendon’s deal includes full no-trade protection but no opt-out chances. Other than the cash required, it cost the Angels only some upcoming draft compensation. Given that, it’s a bit difficult to imagine an organization that came up short on Rendon would be particularly anxious to part with major young talent to acquire Arenado.
There is certainly some interest, though. The Rangers have perhaps been tied most closely to Arenado; the organization was highly disappointed to see Rendon land elsewhere in the division. The Braves are also said to have reached out, but it remains difficult to imagine that organization suddenly opening the books for such a massive deal. Morosi hints that the Dodgers have had some level of interest, but also says they’re not the primary suitor. It seems the Rox are not enamored of the idea of placing Arenado in the NL West. We might presume that the reputed pursuers of free agent Josh Donaldson — along with the Braves, the Twins and Nationals — are going to have at least some level of interest in Arenado. It seems there’s at least a mystery suitor or two floating around as well. Arenado is, after all, good enough to displace even a solid existing regular.
Morosi suggests (Twitter link) that the Nats have indeed spoken with the Colorado organization about Arenado. Unsurprisingly, the report indicates that the Nats aren’t keen to part with young center fielder Victor Robles for Arenado — or for the Cubs’ Kris Bryant. That more or less goes without saying, at least with regard to Arenado, for all of the reasons noted above (particularly since Rendon was the Nats’ own free agent). Robles has some things to iron out, but he’s also still just 22 years of age, can be controlled through the 2024 season, and just turned in a 2.5 fWAR / 4.1 rWAR campaign.
It’s tough to imagine a deal in which another team offers up significant assets to take on the entire Arenado contract. But the Rockies presumably won’t be interested in a deal that doesn’t feel like a win, both internally and to the fanbase. It’s interesting to ponder whether involving additional players — the Rox have a mix of surplus-value talent and underperforming contracts — might help form a more plausible structure than a classic veteran-for-prospect deal.
Remaining Needs: NL West
With the offseason almost two months old, MLBTR is going through all 30 teams’ remaining needs by division. We’ve already checked in on the NL East, AL West, AL Central, and NL Central. Next up: the National League West.
Arizona Diamondbacks [Offseason Outlook]
The Snakes have overseen quite the busy offseason effort thus far. To an extent, though, the activity to date hints at more to come. If there’s an area that’s fully set, it’s the rotation … unless the organization decides to pull the trigger on a deal sending out pending free agent lefty Robbie Ray. That would be a strategic decision to turn a win-now asset into future value. It’s unlikely but not impossible that a hypothetical return would impact the immediate roster the way last year’s Paul Goldschmidt trade did.
The position-player mix could be settled, too, though it’s also possible to imagine the club adding another piece. In the event that the D-Backs find good value on a center field-capable 4th outfielder or a second/third baseman, they could shuffle the assignments of existing players accordingly. Otherwise, the bullpen unit still feels susceptible of improvement. If the Diamondbacks don’t find other ways of investing their remaining available payroll space, they could pick up one or more of the experienced late-inning arms still waiting around in free agency.
Colorado Rockies [Offseason Outlook]
For some teams, the remaining needs are largely the same as the preexisting needs. The Rox really haven’t done much of anything this winter, picking up well-traveled veteran catcher Drew Butera and taking low-cost shots on pitchers Tyler Kinley and Jose Mujica. Adding better options in those areas remains a priority, albeit a seemingly unfunded one.
If there’s a dramatic move to be made this winter, it’ll happen on the trade side. The Rockies are at least chatting with rivals about Nolan Arenado. No doubt they’re fielding calls on Jon Gray, German Marquez, and Trevor Story as well. And it still seems plausible to imagine Charlie Blackmon being made available as a means of alleviating the team’s payroll pressures, though we’ve seen no real indication of talks on the well-compensated outfielder.
Los Angeles Dodgers [Offseason Outlook]
What do you get for the roster that has everything? A bigger star, of course. That’s what the Dodgers have reportedly set out to find, eschewing marginal upgrades and allowing Hyun-Jin Ryu to depart via free agency while stalking bigger game.
With the open market now rather picked over, the Dodgers appear to be focused on structuring complicated trades involving some of the game’s best players. Francisco Lindor? Mike Clevinger? Mookie Betts? Intriguing targets abound. Whether any will land in Chavez Ravine remains unknown.
If the Dodgers whiff on their primary objective, will the offseason be a bust? Perhaps, though there’s still ample talent on hand to sweep away the NL West for the eighth-straight time and the summer trade deadline will offer new opportunities to add. There’s an argument that the club could really use another quality late-inning arm, even after a $10MM roll of the dice on Blake Treinen, but that’s about as close to a true “need” as you get with this stacked roster.
San Diego Padres [Offseason Outlook]
If you think this offseason could be drawing to a close, look no farther than the Friars for one of several rosters that could still see major change. The club has certainly picked up some new pieces — skyrocketing reliever Drew Pomeranz, solid starter Zach Davies, outfielders Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham, and second baseman Jurickson Profar — but doesn’t look to have made overwhelming strides in advance of a critical season.
There’s certainly an argument to be made that the Padres can roll with their existing talent. There’s upside in quite a few places of the roster and more coming through the pipeline. But making a real run at the Dodgers-dominated NL West is not going to be easy, if it’s plausible at all. And the NL Wild Card figures to be tightly contested. Even breaking a nine-year run of losing records isn’t a sure thing.
With the threat of organizational change looming, the Padres should continue pushing for a blockbuster, win-now addition. And they probably ought to increase their pain tolerance for striking a deal. There’s still potential to improve in the outfield, especially in center, and at the top of the rotation. The Friars would like to upgrade behind the dish but will probably find that difficult to pull off. Finding a taker for Wil Myers is another notable possibility, with extension talks to follow during Spring Training.
San Francisco Giants [Offseason Outlook]
The Giants are in an awkward position, carrying a combination of underperforming, expensive veterans and cheaply acquired, still-not-established (but not necessarily youthful) players. President of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has made a few upside-oriented adds this winter but has yet to make any major moves.
Far more than plugging holes, Zaidi is looking for opportunities to build the organization’s talent base. But with the existing collection of established players and the team’s win-always market situation, there’s also some impetus to turn out a competitive product.
More than anything, the Giants could stand to improve at the back of the bullpen and in the outfield. Zaidi has gleefully churned through untold numbers of players at these precise areas since taking the helm. He has made a few finds but there’s plenty of work left to be done. Fortunately, there are some experienced relievers and higher-ceiling corner outfielders still floating around the open market, with trade opportunities perhaps also still alive, so the Giants could yet make more acquisitions.
Dodgers Release JT Chargois
Sunday: Chargois, as it turns out, has been acquired by the Rakuten Golden Eagles of NPB’s Pacific League, according to a report from Jim Allen of the Daily Yomiuri.
Saturday: The Dodgers have released right-handed pitcher JT Chargois in order to facilitate his signing with a team in Japan’s NPB, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times.
Chargois, 29, spent the last two years in the Dodgers organization, splitting time between the big league club and its Triple-A affiliate. In 60 games with the team, he posted a respectable 4.53 ERA over 53 2/3 innings, to go with an even better FIP (3.98). He struck out 68 batters over that same span (11.4 K/9) and was generally a fine reliever for the Dodgers, though he ran into trouble with the home run ball in 2019, allowing four in 21 1/3 innings of work.
A former second-round draft choice, Chargois broke into the Majors with the Twins after a nice collegiate career at Rice University. Since his professional debut in 2012, he’s stormed through the minors at every stop but has struggled to stick on a big league roster. The path to regular playing time would’ve again been tough in 2020, and Chargois figures to be in line for a bigger role with whichever Japanese team he’s chosen to join.
This could be the last we’ve seen of Chargois in the Majors, but then again, it’s not unheard of for American players to make pit stops abroad in hopes that their value will build with more consistent playing time. Eric Thames, Josh Lindblom, and Miles Mikolas are some recent examples of Americans who have struggled in their first crack at the Majors but parlayed their performance in Asia into another MLB contract.
NL West Notes: Samardzija, Cueto, Dodgers
We’ve already rounded up news from the American League twice today. Now, let’s take a look at the latest on a pair of bitter rivals from the Senior Circuit.
- The Giants seem likely to hold onto Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto this offseason, opines Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. That’s not particularly surprising, as San Francisco has little in the way of rotation depth. Samardzija looks like a plausible trade candidate, but any return figures to be minimal. He’ll make $18MM as a 35-year-old rental and looks like a back-end starter at this point. Cueto, meanwhile, will need to reestablish his health before another club will consider paying down some of the $46MM he’s due over the next two seasons (including a 2023 buyout). The veteran (34 in February) started just four games in September following an August 2018 Tommy John Surgery. As Schulman notes, each pitcher could see his trade value rebound with a strong first half.
- The Dodgers have had a quiet start to the offseason, observes Andy McCullough of the Athletic. Given the club’s repeated postseason disappointments in recent years, many L.A. fans have called for a roster shakeup. That sentiment is shared by some in the Dodgers’ front office, relays McCullough, although the club’s only significant acquisition thus far has been reliever Blake Treinen, who inked a one-year, $10MM deal two weeks ago. While there’s still time for the Dodgers to make a splash- they remain front and center on the latest Mike Clevinger and Francisco Lindor rumors- McCullough points out that they haven’t acted rashly under Andrew Friedman’s leadership. They may not need to so this offseason, as they again look to be the overwhelming favorites in the NL West.
Mike Clevinger Drawing Trade Interest
TODAY: The Dodgers continue to be “very aggressive in pursuit of” Clevinger and Lindor, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.
DEC. 19: Indians righty Mike Clevinger is drawing trade interest, per Robert Murray (Twitter link), although the team is said to have put a “crazy high” asking price on the soon-to-be 29-year-old. The Padres and Dodgers are among the clubs to have at least inquired on Clevinger, although there are quite likely others, given the sizable demand for starting pitching, the dwindling supply in free agency and Cleveland’s recent trade of Corey Kluber.
Interest in Clevinger isn’t much of a surprise. He enters his age-29 season with three years of club control remaining and a sterling 2.96 ERA with 10.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a 40.6 percent ground-ball rate over the past three seasons (477 2/3 innings in total). Clevinger missed about two months with a teres major strain last year but otherwise hasn’t had a notable injury since undergoing Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.
The Indians’ front office is widely believed to be working with a slimmer budget this season than in recent years, as ownership has opted to scale back spending after reaching record payroll levels in 2017-18. That payroll preference was perhaps the primary reason that Kluber was moved — as opposed to holding onto him in hopes of receiving a better offer this summer — and it’s part of the reason that the club will at least listen to proposals on players like Clevinger and superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor. But president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have repeatedly stated that they expect Lindor to be their Opening Day shortstop; Antonetti reiterated as much in an appearance on MLB Network this week (video link). And while there’s been no declaration on Clevinger’s status, he’s likely viewed as a similarly vital piece of the team’s core.
Clevinger is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.5MM in his first trip through the arbitration process this winter, so he’s nowhere near as pricey as Kluber ($17.5MM) or Lindor ($16.7MM projected salary). And, because he’s controlled for three more years and his salary isn’t yet prohibitive (relative to Paul Dolan’s apparent spending preferences), one can imagine that it would indeed take a staggering offer to pry Clevinger from the organization’s grasp.
Elite prospects like Gavin Lux and Dustin May have been frequently mentioned in trade rumblings surrounding the Dodgers and Lindor, and it stands to reason that the Indians would have a similarly high ask to consider parting ways with Clevinger. While he may not match Lindor in pure 2020 value, he’s about 25 percent as expensive and can be controlled a year longer than Lindor. Essentially, fans hoping to see their club secure a talent the caliber of Clevinger or Lindor should make a list of the young, controllable players with whom they’d be most reluctant to part … and then expect that at least one and more likely two of said group would be at center of such a deal (in addition to some lesser prospects).
Nationals, Twins Reported To Be Most Aggressive On Josh Donaldson
DEC. 19: It’s “believed” the Nationals and Twins are willing to go to four years for Donaldson, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The Dodgers and Braves are still in the hunt, per Rosenthal, though he notes both teams could be hesitant to go to the four-year length to land Donaldson.
DEC. 16: Ever since they watched star third baseman Anthony Rendon depart, the Nationals have been rumored to be pressing hard for Josh Donaldson as a replacement. The club’s willingness to spend appears to be driving the market for Donaldson, an older but still outstanding player in his own right.
Whether or not there’s a formal offer on the table isn’t known. But the Nats are “aggressive” in their pursuit of Donaldson, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Indeed, the team is prepared to bid upwards of $90MM on a four-year term, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).
MLBTR had predicted a $25MM average annual value for Donaldson, but anticipated he would only be able to secure that over a three-year guarantee. All indications are that Donaldson will have lengthier offers to consider, though it remains to be seen whether he will get to nine-figure territory.
Donaldson more than made good on his one-year deal last winter with the Braves, who are among the other pursuers. He blistered the ball (50.0% hard-hit rate, 92.9 mph average exit velocity), drew a ton of walks (15.2% BB rate), and played great defense (especially in the eyes of DRS, which had him at +15 runs). It was a compelling campaign from a player who has already proven over multiple years that he’s capable of elite production, though teams have no doubt not forgotten that Donaldson is now 34 years of age and dealt with major leg injuries in the prior two seasons.
Rangers Have Interest In Nolan Arenado
5:15PM: The Rangers’ calls about Arenado are more “due diligence” for now, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports (Twitter link), though Texas is legitimately interested in the third baseman.
4:21PM: The Rangers missed out on Anthony Rendon, and reportedly have stepped back from the race to sign Josh Donaldson. However, Texas is still on the lookout for a big-ticket addition at third base, and the club has been in talks with the Rockies about Nolan Arenado, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required).
Texas isn’t the only interested party, as the Rockies have spoken to multiple teams about Arenado’s services. While the Cardinals and Dodgers aren’t specifically cited as two of those other clubs, Rosenthal notes that St. Louis and Los Angeles each “have a longstanding interest in Arenado,” though the Dodgers are doubtful that Arenado would be sent to one of Colorado’s division rivals.
Rockies GM Jeff Bridich has unofficially confirmed that he has been listening to offers for Arenado, though of course, that is markedly different from actively exploring trades of the franchise player. As Rosenthal observes, “many in the industry are skeptical it [an Arenado trade] will happen this offseason” due to several complicating elements — Arenado has a full no-trade clause, he is owed $234MM over through the 2026 season, and Arenado has the right to opt out of that deal following the 2021 campaign.
It doesn’t make for a long list of teams that could potentially fit as a trade partner, especially since “Arenado effectively controls the process” via his no-trade clause. It can’t hurt for Bridich to listen to offers for the sake of due diligence, especially since the third base market will shift again once Donaldson comes off the board.
In the Rangers’ case, much of their offseason work has been focused on upgrading their pitching staff, adding Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson, and Jordan Lyles to join incumbents Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. More work still needs to be done on the position player side, however, and Texas has created some room by moving Nomar Mazara and Delino DeShields from its crowded outfield mix. If the Rangers are indeed no longer pursuing Donaldson, it stands to reason that they could be looking for a lower-key solution at third base (an in-house option like Nick Solak or a stopgap free agent) and instead be looking to spend on another outfield bat. Nicholas Castellanos is reportedly been on the Rangers’ list of targets, and the team also had interest in Marcell Ozuna earlier in the offseason.
Trade Rumblings: Lindor, Padres, Dodgers, Betts, Yanks, Schwarber
The Padres have at least kicked around the idea of attempting to swing a deal for Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). However, Rosenthal cautions that the superstar probably won’t end up in San Diego, which already has an enviable left side of the infield between shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and third baseman Manny Machado. In the unlikely event the Padres do wind up with Lindor, it seems they’d try to turn Tatis into a multi-position player (primarily a center fielder), though Rosenthal notes doing so could displease the 20-year-old and would likely receive pushback from his representatives. That’s important considering San Diego’s desire to extend the phenom.
On the plus side, in addition to picking up an elite player in Lindor, the Padres would keep him away from the division-rival Dodgers, who have been connected to him this winter. But the Lindor-related talks between LA and Cleveland have only been “preliminary” to this point, per Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription). The Indians, for their part, aren’t necessarily under pressure to trade Lindor right now – he still has two years’ control left and remains the best player on a team that has been a consistent playoff contender in recent seasons. That said, the Indians don’t appear to have much of a chance to extend Lindor, so perhaps they’ll be open to parting with him this winter.
Let’s check in on a couple more of baseball’s highest-profile trade candidates…
- Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier this week that the Red Sox and Dodgers have had “exploratory trade talks” in regards to Boston outfielder Mookie Betts. The Dodgers have even included shortstop Corey Seager in discussions centering on Lindor and Betts, Nightengale relays. However, even though Betts only has a year of control left (in which he should make almost $30MM via arbitration), and even though the Red Sox are working to get under the $208MM luxury tax, it doesn’t look as if there’s any hurry to part with the former AL MVP. Instead, it seems the Red Sox’s preference is to trade from their starting staff, tweets the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, who hears that they and the Dodgers “had virtually no engagement” in regards to Betts at last week’s Winter Meetings.
- More from Rosenthal, who writes that the Yankees’ years-long interest in Cubs outfielder Kyle Schwarber has continued. Nevertheless, there’s no momentum toward a deal as of now, Rosenthal adds. Schwarber has been a favorite of the Cubs’ front office, though trading him could be part of an offseason shakeup for a club that fell apart late in 2019. The 26-year-old slugger still has two seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining, and he’s coming off a pair of above-average campaigns, so he’d likely be difficult for the Yankees or anyone else to acquire.
Dodgers Sign Blake Treinen
DECEMBER 15: The signing is now official, as confirmed by Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times.
DECEMBER 11: The Dodgers will sign free-agent reliever Blake Treinen to a one-year, $10MM contract, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports. They were one of “multiple” clubs that made offers in that vicinity to the right-hander, according to Passan. Treinen’s represented by Adam Karon of Apex Baseball.
Judging by the contract he’ll receive and the multi-team interest he drew, clubs are buying into a potential bounce-back in 2020 from Treinen. He was largely a great reliever with the Nationals and Athletics from 2014-18, with the last of those seasons the highlight of his career to this point. Treinen was historically good that year, as he helped the A’s to the postseason with a microscopic .78 ERA/1.82 FIP and posted 11.2 K/9, 2.35 BB/9 and a 51.9 percent groundball rate in 80 1/3 innings of work. He added 38 saves on 43 tries for good measure.
Oakland couldn’t have expected Treinen to be that effective again in 2019, but it surely didn’t think his numbers would fall off a cliff. That’s exactly what happened, though. The 31-year-old put up a 4.91 ERA/5.14 FIP with 9.05 K/9, 5.68 BB/9 and a 42.8 percent grounder rate during an injury-limited, 58 2/3-inning showing. He also blew five saves on 23 attempts, which led the A’s to strip him of the closer role and hand it to Liam Hendriks. Furthmore, Treinen saw his swinging-strike rate fall by almost 6 percent and his home run-to-fly ball rate climb by 12 percent.
Despite Treinen’s newfound struggles, the A’s still managed to clinch another playoff berth. Treinen wasn’t a factor at that point, though, as his season ended in late September because of a stress reaction in his back. A few weeks later, the A’s decided to non-tender Treinen instead of paying him a projected $7.8MM in arbitration.
From at least a financial standpoint, it appears Treinen caught a break when the A’s cut him. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are left to hope they’ve stumbled on a potential late-game force (or at least a consistent and competent reliever). Although their overall roster is one of the envies of the league, the Dodgers did some have bullpen troubles in 2019, which ended in more playoff disappointment. Long-dominant closer Kenley Jansen had his struggles, as did big-money signing Joe Kelly. But the club will look for returns to form out of Treinen, Jansen and Kelly in 2020.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.