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Rangers Acquire Carson Kelly

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The Rangers are acquiring catcher Carson Kelly from the Tigers to fortify their catching corps. In return, Texas will ship catching prospect Liam Hicks and right-handed pitching prospect Tyler Owens to Detroit. Both teams have announced the deal.

Kelly, 30, was signed by the Tigers back in August of last year after he was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks earlier that month. A second-round pick by the Cardinals in 2012, Kelly was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport when he was shipped to Arizona as part of the return for then-franchise face Paul Goldschmidt prior to the 2019 season. The first three years of Kelly’s tenure in Arizona went solidly enough, as he paired strong work behind the plate with a collective .239/.333/.435 slash line that was good for a league average wRC+ of 100. Kelly took a step back in 2022, however, and his 2023 season with the Diamondbacks was nothing short of abysmal as he hit just .226/.283/.298 in 32 games backing up Gabriel Moreno before being DFA’d.

While Kelly did not immediately show signs of improvement upon joining the Tigers for the stretch run last year, instead hitting a paltry .173/.271/.269 in 18 games, Detroit brass still saw fit to pick up a $3.5MM club option on his services for the 2024 campaign back in November. That decision has since proven to be a wise one, as Kelly has emerged as the club’s primary catcher this year. At the plate, he’s slashed a solid .242/.327/.393 (106 wRC+) with a 19.3% strikeout rate that would be his best in a full season. Meanwhile, he’s received excellent marks from Statcast for his work behind the plate this year including elite grades for his blocking and control of the running game in addition to above-average framing numbers. That strong all-around profile combined with the low financial cost of his remaining salary figured to make Kelly one of the more attractive catching options on the market this summer.

For the Rangers, the addition of Kelly should fortify a position that has been somewhat disappointing for the club this year. After an All-Star campaign in 2023, Jonah Heim has taken a step back offensively this year and is hitting just .234/.281/.346 (75 wRC+) in 90 games, while backup Andrew Knizner has been nothing short of disastrous offensively. In 37 games with the Rangers this year, Knizner has slashed just .167/.183/.211 with a wRC+ of 4, indicating he’s been 96% worse than the league average hitter this year. The addition of Kelly should provide the club with a substantial upgrade over Knizner in their catching tandem while simultaneously allowing the Rangers to lighten the workload of Heim as he works through his struggles and looks to recapture the form that made him one of the league’s most valuable backstops last year.

In order to add Kelly to their lineup, the Rangers are parting with a pair of prospects playing at the Double-A level this year. Owens is perhaps the more notable name of the two, as it’s the second time he’s been traded this year. The righty was acquired by the Rangers back in January as part of the deal that sent outfielder J.P. Martinez to Atlanta. The Braves’ 13th-round pick in the 2019 draft, Owens sports an upper-90’s fastball alongside a slider and a cutter but has typically struggled with command throughout his career. A strong 2024 may be helping to assuage some of those concerns, however, as the righty has pitched to a strong 2.80 ERA in 35 1/3 innings of work as a multi-inning reliever for the Rangers at the Double-A level. He’s struck out a respectable 24.5% of batters faced while walking just 6.5%, and it’s not hard to imagine the 23-year-old pitching in Triple-A for the Tigers before the season comes to an end.

Alongside Owens, the Tigers are also adding Hicks, a Double-A catcher who has shown considerable on-base ability at every level throughout his career. After tearing up the Arizona Fall League to the tune of a .449/.553/.522 slash line in 85 trips to the plate last autumn, Hicks has kicked off his age-25 season by posting a solid .364 on-base percentage in 80 games in a return to the Double-A level. A career .264/.380/.360 hitter in Double-A, Hicks’s lack of power production and lackluster grades from scouts behind the plate have tended to keep him on the fringes of most organizational top 30 lists, but it’s not hard to imagine him being useful catching depth for the big league club in the near future.

Kelly’s departure likely opens up a big league catching job for Dillon Dingler, the club’s #10 prospect according to Baseball America. Dingler receives strong grades for his work behind the plate and has flashed 20-homer power in the minor leagues but entered the 2024 season with serious questions about his contact abilities after striking out 30.7% of the time across parts of three seasons at the Double-A level. Dingler struggled badly in a brief promotion to Triple-A late last year but returned to the level in 2024 and has looked much better at the plate, posting an excellent .308/.379/.559 slash line with a 137 wRC+ and a 20.3% strikeout rate against a 10% walk rate. Dingler’s improved offensive numbers should be enough to earn him considerable playing time in the majors behind the plate as part of a tandem with Jake Rogers, who has struggled to a 68 wRC+ in 64 games this year but has posted excellent defensive numbers.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first broke the news of Kelly’s trade to the Rangers. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported the return of Hicks and Owens headed to Detroit.

Image Courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Rangers’ Deadline Plans

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The Rangers made their first move of the summer earlier this evening by dealing a pair of prospects to the Tigers in exchange for catcher Carson Kelly, who figures to replace Andrew Knizner in the club’s catching tandem alongside 2023 All-Star Jonah Heim. The move confirms that the reigning World Series champs won’t be full-blown sellers despite a lackluster 51-55 record that leaves them 4.5 games back of the Astros and Mariners in the AL West, but that doesn’t mean the club necessarily plans to buy exclusively in the coming days, either.

As noted by Joel Sherman of the New York Post in a report this evening, the Rangers are making right-hander Michael Lorenzen available on the trade market. The news comes after The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested that Lorenzen (as well as right-hander Jon Gray) could be made available prior to the deadline earlier this week. The 32-year-old Lorenzen has pitched solidly as a back-of-the-rotation option for Texas this year with a 3.87 ERA in 18 starts, though the veteran’s 5.26 FIP and 11.9% walk rate could be worrisome to prospective buyers.

In a sellers’ market starved for pitching options, it’s easy to imagine how a pitcher like Lorenzen who has plenty of experience both as a starter and as a reliever could be an attractive trade target even in spite of worrisome peripheral numbers. Meanwhile, dealing Lorenzen would allow the Rangers to recoup some long-term value for a pending free agent who could be forced out of his current role on the team by the impending returns of Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom, and Cody Bradford from injury.

That doesn’t mean that Lorenzen is a lock to be moved, however, as Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today writes that the Rangers could opt to take the right-hander off the market in the aftermath of Gray exiting his start today without throwing a pitch due to a groin injury. As noted by Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News, Gray is set to undergo imaging to determine the severity of the issue. With none of Mahle, Bradford, nor deGrom likely to be ready to step into the club’s rotation just yet, a significant absence for Gray could complicate the club’s plans to deal Lorenzen by leaving them with only Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, and Andrew Heaney as active members of the starting rotation.

Wilson goes on to suggest, however, the Lorenzen isn’t the only name the club could consider shopping in the coming days. Wilson reports that first baseman Nathaniel Lowe’s “name has surfaced” as a potential trade chip for the Rangers this summer amid an excellent July that has boosted his overall season slash line to .266/.361/.390 (114 wRC+). While Lowe could certainly be a potentially valuable addition for certain teams, two of the most obvious suitors for a first baseman this deadline are the Rangers’ own division rivals in Houston and Seattle. Even in an age where intradivisional trading has become more common, its hard to imagine the Rangers helping either the Astros or Mariners improve in the short terms as they look to chase them down for the AL West title this year. Still, it’s possible the Rangers are able to find a suitor for Lowe’s services elsewhere, such as in Pittsburgh where the Pirates could look to upgrade over Rowdy Tellez at first base.

The loss of Lowe from the lineup would further weaken a beleaguered Rangers offense, but Wilson goes on to suggest that dealing Lowe could open up a spot in the club’s lineup for Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz. Diaz is currently on the restricted list due to an undisclosed personal matter, but the Rangers were connected to him earlier this week. Diaz has slashed just .272/.327/.400 (111 wRC+) this year following a slow start to the season but is just one year removed from a sixth-place finish in AL MVP voting with the Rays last season.

The 32-year-old is controllable through the 2026 season just like Lowe is, and it’s theoretically possible that the Rangers could look to upgrade first base while retaining the same amount of team control should they manage to land Diaz while shipping Lowe elsewhere. Alternatively, it’s certainly feasible that the club could retain both players and utilize one as their primary DH for the remainder of the 2024 campaign before looking to trade one this winter should the club decide to commit fully to buying this summer. Such a move would provide an undeniable boost to the Texas offense, which has gotten an MLB-worst 57 wRC+ from the DH spot in the lineup this year.

Rangers Interested In Isaac Paredes

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With Randy Arozarena and Zach Eflin traded in the last two days, the Rays have already gotten a jump on retooling and cutting payroll even as the team still has a respective .500 (52-52) record.  Isaac Paredes is another name who has gotten a lot of attention in the trade market, and ESPN’s Buster Olney (via X) reports that the Rangers have talked to the Rays about Paredes, in addition to their previously reported interest in Yandy Diaz.

Both the Astros and Mariners have also been linked to Paredes’ market, so the All-Star infielder is generating a lot of interest within the AL West alone now that the Rangers have also joined the mix.  It isn’t surprising that clubs around baseball are checking in on a player with Paredes’ combination of age (25), affordability, team control, and obvious ability on the diamond.

Paredes has blossomed over his three seasons in Tampa, including his 16 homers and .249/.356/.441 slash line over 421 plate appearances this season.  The translates to a 132 wRC+, only a touch below Paredes’ 137 mark over 571 PA in 2023.  Beyond the offense, Paredes has primarily played third base with generally around average fielding grades depending on your metric of choice, but he has also gotten a good chunk of time at first base and (prior to this season) time at second base.

It is safe to say Paredes would primarily stick to the hot corner if he landed with the Rangers, as regular third baseman Josh Jung has missed almost the entire season due to wrist surgery, and then a subsequent shutdown from a minor league rehab assignment due to continued soreness.  Jung restarted a new rehab stint just yesterday (going 1-for-3 with Double-A Frisco) but is still likely a week or two away from rejoining the lineup, given how he’ll need some space to get his timing back after such a long layoff.

Josh Smith’s excellent play at third base has helped Texas manage Jung’s absence to some extent, and the left-handed hitting Smith pairs nicely with the right-handed hitting Paredes.  That same platoon factor could give Paredes some time at first base when a left-handed starter is on the mound, thus giving the Rangers opportunity to sit Nathaniel Lowe.  Even if Jung did return relatively soon in August, that still doesn’t create any real playing time crunch, since the Rangers could rotate any of these players into the DH spot to everyone playing on more or less an everyday basis.

Paredes is a Super Two player, and is earning $3.4MM this season in the first of four arbitration-eligible seasons.  Adding Paredes would therefore bring another long-term option into a Rangers lineup that already has a lot of pieces locked into place.  Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are signed to mega-deals, while Lowe, Adolis Garcia, and Jonah Heim are arb-controlled through 2026.  Leody Taveras is arb-controlled through 2027, Jung and Smith through 2028, and star prospects Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford are both still rookies.  Justin Foscue is another notable prospect in his rookie season, and shortstop prospect Sebastian Walcott is at least a couple of years away from his MLB debut but still falls within this broader timeframe.

If the Rangers feel this creates any kind of a longjam or if they feel Jung is making good progress, they could pursue a rental player type of infielder instead of Paredes.  Such a move would also naturally come at a much lower prospect cost, as Tampa Bay is surely demanding a ton in any Paredes trade.  Given his years of control and the fact that the Rays are planning to contend again in 2025, Tampa isn’t facing any pressure to trade Paredes immediately, as even a healthy arb raise this winter should still fit him comfortably within the Rays’ limited payroll parameters.

Rangers Among Clubs With Interest In Yandy Díaz

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Rays infielder Yandy Díaz has been on the restricted list for almost a week while attending to an undisclosed personal matter, but the Rays announced that they reinstated him today. They already had three vacancies on their 40-man roster, so this move brings their count to 38. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed on X earlier that the club was hopeful of Díaz returning tonight. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last night that the Rangers are interested in adding him to their lineup. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com says on X that the Astros, Mariners and Pirates are possible suitors, though it’s unclear if any of those clubs have engaged with the Rays.

Díaz, now 32, has been a fixture of the Rays for many years. He came to Tampa from Cleveland heading into 2019 as part of the three-team trade and quickly worked his way into being a regular for the Rays. From the start of 2019 to the present, he has drawn walks in 11.6% of his plate appearances while only striking out 14.5% of the time. His .288/.375/.439 batting line translates to a 133 wRC+, indicating he’s been 33% better than league average overall.

That offense is his best attribute. He’s not a burner on the basepaths and his third base defense was poorly regarded, though he’s been closer to average at first base and has been more or less permanently moved to that side of the diamond. But the 133 wRC+ that Díaz has put up from 2019 to the present is one of the top 15 marks in baseball among qualified hitters, highlighting that such consistently above-average production is hard to find.

Here in 2024, his season-long stats look mildly disappointing, a .273/.329/.396 line and 111 wRC+, but that’s mostly due to a brutal start that he has put behind him. He hit .211/.279/.276 through May 1 but his line of .302/.354/.453 since that time leads to a 134 wRC+, right in line with his overall track record.

The Rays don’t strictly have to move him but their behavior suggests he’s available. Going into 2023, he and the Rays signed an extension that runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He’ll make $10MM next year with the option valued at $12MM.

Tampa could certainly keep him but they have shown, both recently and in the past, that they are generally unafraid to move players nearing free agency. Although they are 52-51 this year and just four games out of a playoff spot, they have already traded Aaron Civale, Phil Maton and Randy Arozarena in recent weeks.

Some recent reporting suggested the Rays were more likely to trade arbitrations players than those signed to long-term deals, but that contradicts their past behavior. Players like Evan Longoria, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot have all signed extensions and then been traded before those contracts ended, so there’s no real reason to believe the Rays won’t be open to trade offers on Díaz.

Doing so wouldn’t even be a signal that the club is giving up on 2024, as players like Isaac Paredes and Curtis Mead could fill in at first base. Jonathan Aranda is currently hurt but could be in the mix later. Infielders like Junior Caminero, Austin Shenton and Osleivis Basabe could be called up to fill in elsewhere around the infield. In the long term, Xavier Isaac is a first baseman and considered one of the top 50 prospects in the league, though he’s yet to reach Double-A.

For the Rangers, Rosenthal relays that they are looking for “either a left-handed hitting outfielder/DH or a platoon-neutral right-handed hitter.” Díaz is better against lefties but isn’t a liability without the platoon advantage. He has a 148 wRC+ against southpaws in his career and a 121 wRC+ against righties. It’s a far wider split of 151 and 99 this year, though in a much smaller sample size.

Texas hitters have a collective line of .237/.309/.378 against right-handed pitching, with that line leading to a 93 wRC+, putting them ahead of just seven clubs in that split. They have Nathaniel Lowe at first base but don’t really have a regular designated hitter and should be able to fit both him and Díaz into the same lineup.

The Rays and Mariners already lined up on one deal, sending the aforementioned Arozarena to Seattle as the M’s look for more offense. Díaz could further augment their lineup, especially with the struggling Ty France have been recently designated for assignment and leaving an opening at first base. They have plugged Tyler Locklear into that spot but he has only 40 major league plate appearances thus far.

The Astros also cut ties with a struggling first baseman, releasing José Abreu earlier this year. They have mostly used Jon Singleton to fill that hole but he’s hitting just .231/.319/.343 this year for a 93 wRC+.

The Pirates have a bit less of a dire need as they held onto their struggling first baseman and were rewarded with a bounceback. Rowdy Tellez was hitting .177/.239/.223 through the end of May but has a line of .328/.364/.588 since the calendar flipped to June. His season-long line is still subpar thanks to that early slump but the Pirates probably feel less inclined to replaced Tellez on the heels of his hot streak this summer. They have Andrew McCutchen in the designated hitter spot most days, which makes the lineup fit a bit less clean unless they plan on moving on from Tellez, who is a free agent at season’s end.

Both the Astros and Rangers are set to pay the competitive balance tax at season’s end, so they may have to consider the taxes involved in taking on the Díaz contract. The Astros are set to be a first-time payor and have a base rate of 20% but RosterResource has their CBT number at $256MM. Crossing over the $257MM second tier would increase their tax rate to 32% for spending beyond that line. Recent reporting suggested they are trying to move Rafael Montero’s contract to lessen their tax burden but doing so will be difficult given his poor results of late. RosterResource has the Rangers at $249MM but they are set to be a second-time payor and have a base tax rate of 30%.

Latest On Rangers’ Rotation, Trade Possibilities

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The Rangers have patched together their rotation for much of the season as they anticipate the returns of veterans Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom. Scherzer has already returned. Mahle is set to make his fifth minor league rehab start today and should make his Rangers debut before long. It’ll be a bit longer before deGrom makes it back, but he tossed a 40-pitch bullpen just yesterday, per Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com. Left-hander Cody Bradford is on a minor league rehab assignment and expected to return soon, though Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that he’ll work out of the bullpen upon his return. Texas reinstated righty Dane Dunning from the injured list earlier today, too. He’s in the ’pen for now but could move back to a starting role depending on how the next week goes.

What once was a starting pitching hodgepodge looks increasingly enviable. If Mahle is cleared to return after today’s start, he’ll join Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney and Dunning as viable rotation options, with Bradford in the bullpen and deGrom looming on the horizon. That’s nine MLB-caliber starters, to say nothing of veteran starter Jose Ureña (who started six games but is in the bullpen presently).

With so many options suddenly at their fingertips, there’s been plenty of speculation about the Rangers trading from that stockpile of arms — even as they narrow the deficit in the postseason hunt. Texas has won four straight games. The Mariners have lost three straight. The Rangers now sit only three games back of the first-place Astros in the West and are just 5.5 games out in the Wild Card hunt. They’re not going to operate as a pure seller, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests that Lorenzen or perhaps even Gray could be moved before Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Lorenzen, 32, signed with the Rangers on a one-year, $4.5MM deal in spring training. It was a bargain price for a veteran righty coming off a solid season, and he’s proven to be well worth the investment. He’s pitched 97 innings over the course of 17 starts and turned in a 3.53 ERA. Lorenzen’s 18.5% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate both leave plenty to be desired and point to some likely ERA regression, but he’s been precisely the type of veteran rotation stabilizer the Rangers hoped to be acquiring when signing him.

As of deadline day, Lorenzen will have just $1.5MM of that base salary yet to be paid out. He’s already picked up $800K of innings-based incentives and will get another $200K when he reaches 100 innings, likely in his next start. Assuming that comes with the Rangers — he’s their probable starter Saturday — a new team would be on the hook for the remaining portion of his base and additional incentives he’d unlock by reaching 120 innings ($300K), 140 innings ($350K), 160 innings ($400K) and 180 innings ($450K). He’s on pace to barely reach that final milestone.

At most, a team adding Lorenzen would pay around $1.5MM in base salary and an additional $1.5MM worth of incentives. If Lorenzen is pitching well enough to reach that 180-inning mark, it’d be considered money well spent. If nothing else, a budget-conscious team looking to add a stable starter (e.g. Twins, Guardians) could view Lorenzen as an affordable option.

Gray would be a more surprising trade candidate. He’s in the third season of a four-year, $56MM contract that’s paying $13MM both this year and next. Thus far, he’s posted 94 innings of 3.73 ERA ball on the season. While Gray’s 19.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career (aside from the shortened 2020 season), his 5.8% walk rate is a career-best mark. He’s still averaging 95 mph with his heater, while his opponents’ chase rate and swinging-strike rate are roughly in line with his 2022-23 marks.

Rosenthal also cites a pair of names the Rangers would prefer to hang onto even as they ponder trading from their rotation depth: Eovaldi and Heaney. The former is well on his way to vesting a $20MM player option for the 2025 season. That option would decrease his trade value — a new team would be stuck with the $20MM in the event of a major, post-trade injury. Beyond that, Eovaldi has been one of the team’s best arms this season, notching a 3.31 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate in 106 innings. He’d likely be ticketed for their playoff rotation, should they get there. And, even if they don’t, the Rangers might simply hope Eovaldi stays healthy and enjoys pitching in his home state enough that he’d pick up that player option for the 2025 season.

As for Heaney, he’s turned things around after a shaky first season in Texas. The veteran southpaw boasts a 3.60 ERA, 23.5% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate in exactly 100 innings. He’s a free agent at season’s end, so one would imagine he’s an on-paper trade candidate in this scenario where Texas deals from its excess. However, the Rangers don’t have an established left-hander in their bullpen. Brock Burke was excellent in 2022 but took a step back in ’23 and was optioned earlier this season after being shelled through 9 2/3 innings. Rookie Jacob Latz has a solid 3.68 ERA in 36 2/3 innings, but he’s walked 13.5% of his opponents. Bradford could possibly fill that role, but he’s yet to return from a stress reaction in his ribcage.

Heaney has experience pitching both as a starter and reliever, including during his time with Texas. He’s throwing well right now but would likely be pushed out of a theoretical postseason rotation. In that setting, he could slide into the bullpen and match up against tough lefties and/or provide multiple innings in long relief.

Giants Claim Derek Hill From Rangers

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The Giants are claiming outfielder Derek Hill off waivers from the Rangers, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. Texas designated the speedster for assignment over the weekend. San Francisco already had an opening on their 40-man roster, so they won’t need to make a corresponding move until Hill reports to the team.

Texas signed Hill, a former first-round pick of the Tigers, to a minor league deal over the winter. They gave him a pair of stints on the big league roster. He connected on three home runs in 16 games, though he also struck out 14 times while drawing only two walks. The 28-year-old has had an excellent season in Triple-A, hitting .350/.415/.631 with eight home runs through 176 plate appearances.

Hill can play all three outfield positions. He hasn’t hit much at the MLB level, running a .232/.280/.334 line over parts of five seasons. He’s a career .300/.360/.502 hitter over 224 Triple-A contests, making him an intriguing depth piece. Hill has exhausted his minor league options, so the Giants will need to keep him on the big league roster or designate him for assignment themselves moving forward.

Rangers Designate Derek Hill For Assignment

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The Rangers announced that outfielder Derek Hill has been designated for assignment.  The move opens up roster space for Texas to call up infield prospect Justin Foscue from Triple-A.

Hill has been DFA’ed multiple times during his pro career, and this is the second time the Rangers have designated him in as many months.  The previous designation in June saw Hill clear waivers and then choose free agency rather than an outright assignment, but he quickly re-signed with the Rangers on a new minors contract.  Hill’s deal was selected again to the Texas roster last month, and overall he has hit .256/.289/.465 with three home runs over 45 plate appearances and 16 games this season.

While Hill provided a bit of extra pop during his brief stints on the 26-man roster, he’ll again be exposed to the DFA wire since he is out of minor league options, and thus can’t be just cleanly sent down to Triple-A.  Since Hill has been outrighted in the past, he has the right to again elect free agency if he clears waivers and Texas again tries to outright him off the 40-man, or we could see a repeat of the earlier scenario where Hill just rejoins the organization as Triple-A depth.

Appearing in each of the last five MLB seasons, Hill has a career .232/.280/.334 slash line in 349 plate appearances with the Rangers, Nationals, and Tigers.  The lack of hitting has limited Hill’s playing time, but the 28-year-old can provide solid glovework at all three outfield positions and outstanding speed, making him an interesting bench option.  Selected 23rd overall by Detroit in the 2014 draft, Hill has also crushed Triple-A pitching in his minor league career, including an 1.045 OPS in 176 PA with Triple-A Round Rock this year.

Foscue made his Major League debut this season and appeared in two games for the Rangers before suffering an oblique strain that has sidelined him for over three and a half months.  A highly-touted hitter during his college days at Mississippi State, Foscue was picked 14th overall in the 2020 draft, and delivered big numbers during his time in the Texas farm system.  His excellent contact skills and decent power hint that Foscue’s bat may be ready for the Show, even if it isn’t yet clear which position (if any) will be his eventual landing spot.  Since Marcus Semien is blocking Foscue’s natural second base position and Nathaniel Lowe has first base covered, Foscue could be used as a DH or as a third baseman with Josh Jung still injured.

Rangers GM: Hoping To Be In Buyer Position

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The Rangers are the defending World Series champions but they currently sport a record of 46-50 that has them 7.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. They’re five games out in the AL West, where they trail the Mariners and Astros. With less than two weeks until the trade deadline, general manager Chris Young will have some decisions to make but is currently hoping his players make the decision for him.

“We are going to do everything we can to win this year,” Young tells Joel Sherman of The New York Post, though he also left some ambiguity by adding that he “wants to take as much time as possible to make a choice and hope in the next week [the results] make it clear we are buyers.”

The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs currently give them a 12.3% chance at cracking the postseason while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are slightly more optimistic at 18.2%. Young and his staff will presumably be discussing all kinds of trade scenarios with other clubs in the coming days, as the Rangers host the Orioles for three games, the White Sox for four and then cross the northern border to play three in Toronto. They will then start a three-game set in St. Louis but the deadline will be on July 30, after just one game against the Cardinals.

It’s an interesting spot for Young and the Rangers to be in, with potential arguments for buying, selling or some kind of combination. The argument in favor of buying would largely hinge on the club having much better health in the second half than in the first.

On the position player side, both Evan Carter and Josh Jung are currently on the injured list. Carter struggled over the first two months of the season, hitting just .188/.272/.361 while battling back tightness that eventually put him on the shelf. Manager Bruce Bochy later described it as a stress reaction, per Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News, with the timeline still unclear. Jung has only played four games this year before being hit by a pitch and suffering a wrist fracture that required surgery. His rehab assignment was shut down a few weeks ago due to continued discomfort and his ramp-up is also somewhat murky.

On the pitching side, Andrew Heaney has been the only consistent rotation member. Each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Lorenzen and Jon Gray spent some time on the injured list, though each is currently active. Max Scherzer had offseason back surgery and began the season on the IL, then had his return delayed by a thumb injury. He has missed most of this season so far but returned in recent weeks and has taken the ball five times this year.

The rotation could be getting further reinforcements, with both Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle working back from Tommy John surgeries they underwent last summer. Dane Dunning and Cody Bradford are also on the IL and could return later in the year.

That theoretically stronger rotation and the possible returns of Carter and/or Jung could perhaps inspire the club to push hard at the deadline, hoping to gain steam for a strong second half. But it could also be an argument for doing some selling. Hypothetically, if everyone were to be healthy at some point in the coming months, the club would have nine rotation candidates in deGrom, Scherzer, Eovaldi, Gray, Mahle, Heaney, Lorenzen, Bradford and Dunning.

The club probably doesn’t want to bank on all of them being healthy at the same time, so they wouldn’t necessarily need to trim the number to five. Dunning has often pitched in relief and can be kept there. Bradford has a 1.40 ERA this year but in a small sample of three starts. Despite the strong results, the Rangers would be justified in optioning him to the minors if he were blocked by their more established guys.

But that still leaves seven solid veteran options that could all be healthy in the weeks to come. Perhaps the club will feel they could trade an impending free agent or two without really “selling” here in 2024 or hurting themselves too much in the future, something that MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at in a piece for Front Office subscribers. Lorenzen is on a one-year deal and set to return to the open market at season’s end. Heaney is in the final season of his two-year deal.

Scherzer is also slated for free agency at season’s end but has a full no-trade clause. He was recently asked on Foul Territory about waiving it again, as he did to come to the Rangers from the Mets, with that show relaying video on X. Scherzer said “I’m not gonna do that” before elaborating that he thought the club would play better and make it a moot point.

Eovaldi is in the final guaranteed year of his deal though there’s a vesting player option for 2025 he could potentially unlock. There were three ways for him to unlock that player option, though one of them involved making the 2024 All-Star team. Since he wasn’t chosen, he’s down to two paths. His best chance is to get to 300 combined innings pitched over 2023 and 2024. He’s currently at 238 and therefore 62 shy of the line, which he should be able to cross if he stays healthy the rest of the year. His other path to unlocking the player option is to finish in the top five in Cy Young voting. That option muddies any trade the Rangers might consider and he has limited trade protection on his deal as well.

Gray and Mahle each have one year left of their deals, making them at least somewhat plausible trade candidates, though moving them would hurt the club’s chances next year. With Scherzer, Heaney and Lorenzen slated for free agency after 2024, the Rangers might want to keep Gray and Mahle in the mix for 2025 alongside deGrom, Bradford, Dunning and maybe Eovaldi.

If the Rangers end up more firmly in the seller camp, they would have those aforementioned pitchers to market, as well as impending free agents David Robertson, José Leclerc, Kirby Yates, José Ureña, Travis Jankowski and Robbie Grossman. Based on Young’s comments, it sounds like it would take a rough performance in the coming weeks for them to sell, but those would be the options. Sherman also floats the possibility of Adolis García or Nathaniel Lowe being available, though each is arbitration controlled through 2026 and it doesn’t seem as though something that drastic is on the table, though it could always come about if some club comes in with an offer that can’t be refused.

Like many other clubs around the league, the Rangers are set for a pseudo postseason push in the weeks to come. With the buyer and seller paths both seemingly on the table, the Texas season will be on the line in the coming weeks, at least to an extent. As Young and his crew have to decide how hard to push in one direction or the other, the upcoming part of the schedule could perhaps define the team for the months that follow.

Poll: Who Will Win The 2024 Home Run Derby?

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The 2024 All-Star break festivities are already well underway, with the Futures Game in the books and the second of three draft days currently taking place. Tonight, the Home Run Derby will take center stage at 7pm Central time, with these participants:

The winner will get $1MM, with $500K for the runner-up and $150K for everyone else in the field. There’s also a $100K bonus for the player who hits the longest home run. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won last year but opted not to defend his title, so there will be a new champion, though Alonso has two previous titles from 2019 and 2021 and will be looking for a third.

This year’s format will be different from previous versions, with Cole Jacobson of MLB.com providing a rundown. The primary change is that there will be no head-to-head matchups in the first round, as the four players with the most home runs will advance. If two players tie, the longest home run will be a tiebreaker. Previously, the knockout-style bracket system started right away but this year’s version won’t see that until the field has been narrowed to four. Once the knockout stage begins, ties will be settled by 60 seconds of extra time. If the players are still tied, they will engage in three-swing showdowns until they are no longer tied.

In the first two rounds, players with have three minutes, which drops to two minutes in the final round. The three-minute rounds will now have a 40-pitch maximum while the two-minute round will feature a 27-pitch maximum.

The bonus time is also different. Previous versions featured 30 seconds of automatic extra time, which jumped to 60 seconds if the player hit two or more home runs 440 feet or longer. This year, the bonus time will continue until a player record three “outs,” which is a swing that doesn’t result in a home run. If a player hits a home run 425 feet or longer in the bonus period, he will get a fourth out.

Of the eight players competing this year, Henderson has the most homers this year with 28. He is followed by Ozuna at 26, Ramírez at 23, Alonso and Hernández at 19, García at 17, Witt at 16 and Bohm at 11.

Who do you want to win and who do you think will win? Have you say in the polls below!

Rockies Claim Antoine Kelly, Designate Josh Rogers

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The Rockies announced Monday that they’ve claimed left-hander Antoine Kelly off waivers from the Rangers, who’d previously designated him for assignment. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Colorado designated fellow lefty Josh Rogers for assignment.

Kelly, 24, was a second-round pick by the Brewers in 2019 and went to the Rangers alongside utilityman Mark Mathias in the 2022 deadline deal that sent righty Matt Bush from Texas to Milwaukee. Kelly pitched in the 2022 Futures Game and enjoyed a standout 2023 season split the Rangers’ Double-A and Triple-A bullpens: 57 1/3 innings, 11 saves, 2.04 ERA, 32.1% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate.

That promising trajectory has gone off the rails in 2024, however. Kelly has missed significant time with a forearm injury this season and been ineffective when healthy, yielding 17 earned runs in a span of 16 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level. His strikeout rate has dropped considerably, though at 25%, it’s still better than average. However, Kelly has issued nearly as many walks as he has recorded strikeouts, with a glaring 22.9% of his opponents reaching via base on balls. Add in the two batters he’s plunked, and he’s at a combined 24 walks/HBP — the same number of strikeouts he’s yielded this season.

Command troubles — albeit not to this extent — are nothing new for Kelly. Even prior to this season, he’d walked 13% of his career opponents. Last year’s strong K-BB profile represented a significant step forward for the southpaw, and the Rockies will hope they can get him back to that form down the stretch and into future seasons. Kelly is in the first of three minor league option seasons, so the Rox will be able to freely option him not only this year but also in 2025 and 2026 if they keep him on the roster for that long.

The 30-year-old Rogers signed minor league deals with Colorado in each of the past two offseasons. He didn’t pitch for the Rockies in ’23 but has appeared in five games this season, logging 9 1/3 innings out of the bullpen and surrendering seven runs on a dozen hits and two walks with two strikeouts. The Rockies selected Rogers to the MLB roster in late May but placed him on the injured list barely two weeks later, owing to a strain in his left rotator cuff. Rogers was reinstated from the injured list and optioned to Triple-A just yesterday. He’ll now spend up to a week in DFA limbo as he waits to learn whether he’s been traded, claimed by another club, passed through outright waivers or released.

Originally an 11th-round pick by the 2015 Yankees, Rogers went to the Orioles as part of the Zack Britton trade in 2018. He pitched parts of two seasons with the O’s and another two with the Nats after being released and signing a minor league deal in Washington. Overall, he’s pitched 97 1/3 innings in the majors between three teams and yielded a 5.55 ERA with a 10.9% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate. He’s pitched 496 innings in Triple-A as well but had similar struggles there: 5.72 ERA, 15% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate.

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