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Notes On Greg Holland’s Showcase

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Free agent righty Greg Holland took the hill for scouts yesterday as he sets the stage for his return to action. The former Royals closer missed all of 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he’ll play an interesting role in the market with multiple big-payroll clubs among those seeking power arms at the back of their respective bullpens. Despite the long injury layoff, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes rates Holland 23rd in earning power among free agents, noting that a wide variety of organizations could pursue him. Joel Sherman of the New York Post covered the showcase, and we’ve also heard additional reports about which teams were represented.

Here’s the latest:

  • The most important aspect of the appearance was Holland’s health, and Sherman writes that scouts came away feeling optimistic in that regard after seeing 35 pitches. Though the typically fireballing righty sat in the 89 to 90 mph range with his fastball, he’s obviously still building up arm strength. One scout explained that Holland worked with “good extension” in showing off his heater and ballyhooed slider, suggesting he’s ready to continue working back to his prior form.
  • Agent Scott Boras argued that his client, who’ll soon turn 31, represents a great value for teams unwilling or unable to sign top closers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon. He predicted a multi-year deal, with a two-year arrangement laden with incentives possibly making sense for all involved. It remains to be seen just how much cash teams will be willing to promise Holland, who had faltered in 2015 while pitching through the elbow problems that ultimately resulted in surgery. But the upside is undeniable: from 2011 through 2014, he compiled 256 1/3 innings of 1.86 ERA pitching with 12.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.
  • All told, about sixty scouts were on hand to watch, says Sherman, with about 18 clubs putting eyes on the righty. We had previously heard that the Giants, Red Sox, Rangers, and Yankees would be joined by the Twins in attendance. Sherman notes that GM Bobby Evans and a top scouting exec were on hand for the closing-needy Giants, with the Yankees also sending top talent evaluators. He also lists the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Phillies as organizations that sent reps. The Royals, too, were watching their former hurler, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets, as were the division-rival Tigers, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (Twitter link). And the two top NL East clubs — the Nationals and Mets — were also intrigued enough to send scouts, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter) and ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin.

Edwin Encarnacion Drawing Strong Early Interest

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Free agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion will hit the market in search of as many as five guaranteed years at as much as $25MM annually, his agent Paul Kinzer tells TSN. Clubs have already been in touch about the first baseman and DH, who ranks second on MLBTR’s list of the top fifty free agents.

As Kinzer notes, the market will dictate Encarnacion’s ultimate price. One major factor could be whether National League teams will join their American League competitors in pursuing him. “He proved this year that he is a solid first baseman and I think that will make him attractive to National League teams as well,” said Kinzer. Of course, it’s fair to wonder whether those organizations will believe he can man the position over the life of such a lengthy contract.

The agent opined that there could be 11 teams in pursuit of Encarnacion. We’ve already heard that the Blue Jays are making a play to retain him, and Kinzer tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford that he also sees the division-rival Red Sox as a great fit. Encarnacion loves hitting in Boston, says Kinzer, and also likes the idea of stepping into the sizable shoes of fellow Dominican David Ortiz. The Astros and Rangers are at least two other hypothetical landing spots, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports notes on Twitter.

It’s possible that things could move quickly, Kinzer also tells Bradford, with some teams having already shown a willingness to make an early splash. “Last year moved pretty quick on a lot of higher guys, so we’ll see,” he said. “The only thing this time is the collective bargaining agreement [defining the luxury tax threshold], how that works out.” Encarnacion, too, is ready to make a decision if the terms are to his liking. “If he feels comfortable and he feels like he’s treated fairly, he can pull the trigger fairly rapidly,” said Kinzer.

Since he’s obviously set to reject the Jays’ qualifying offer, any team signing Encarnacion will need to sacrifice a draft pick to add him — even Toronto, which would otherwise add a selection — but it’s certainly arguable that he’s a big enough piece that it won’t impact his earning power too significantly. Kinzer trumpets Encarnacion’s quiet but positive clubhouse presence, hard-working approach, conditioning and health. Teams will weigh all of these factors, along with his outstanding track record at the plate (.272/.367/.544 over his last five seasons), against his age and defensive limitations in deciding just how hard to push.

Ten Players To Receive Qualifying Offers

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Major League teams had until 5pm ET today to extend qualifying offers to their impending free agents — a decision that could significantly impact the market for a number of players this winter. For those unfamiliar with the process, the collective bargaining agreement stipulates that teams can make a “qualifying offer” to free agents that spent the entire season on the roster — midseason trades and signings are ineligible — if they wish to secure draft pick compensation for the loss of that player. The QO is a set one-year value determined by averaging the salaries of the top 125 players in the league. This year, the value of that sum comes to $17.2MM.

A player will have one week to survey the market and determine whether he wishes to accept the QO or reject in search of a more lucrative free-agent deal. If a player accepts the offer — something that has happened only three times since the system’s implementation in 2012 (Matt Wieters, Colby Rasmus and Brett Anderson) — that player is considered signed for the following season at $17.2MM. The contract is considered a free-agent deal, and as such, that player is not allowed to be traded without his consent until June 15.

If the player rejects a QO, he’s free to sign with any team for any amount (including the team from which he rejected the QO). However, whichever team signs a player that has rejected a QO must surrender its top unprotected pick in the upcoming draft (unless the player re-signs with the team that made the QO). The first 10 selections are protected, so those clubs would only be required to part with their second-highest pick. A team that signs multiple players that have rejected a QO continues to forfeit its top unprotected pick for each subsequent signing. The team that lost the free agent in question, meanwhile, will receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round. The order of comp picks, like the draft order itself, is determined based upon the previous year’s standings.

Last year there were a record 20 players to receive QOs (valued at $15.8MM based on 2015 salaries). There should be fewer this year, given the weak free-agent market, but there should still be a double-digit total of QOs extended. Here’s a list of who will reportedly receive qualifying offers thus far, and we’ll update this throughout the day and include the full list when the 5:00pm deadline has passed:

For a more in-depth explanation of the qualifying offer system, you can reference back to our post Explaining The Qualifying Offer System from last October. In the past, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has also spoken to both agents and general managers about the importance of avoiding the qualifying offer and the impact it has on teams’ decisions. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd, meanwhile, penned a pair of insightful posts in an effort to contextualize and assess the QO system and its purposes on the heels of the 2013-14 offseason.

Rangers To Decline Derek Holland’s Option

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NOVEMBER 7: Texas has not been able to find a trade partner and will officially decline Holland’s option today, per MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (via Twitter).

OCTOBER 31, 8:45pm: Texas has informed Holland that his option won’t be picked up — at least, not to play with the Rangers, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. It isn’t clear at this point what kinds of scenarios the Rangers are weighing with regard to the southpaw.

Holland could conceivably be moved for another veteran with a reasonably hefty salary or instead be cashed in for some prospect value. It’s also possible that Texas could contribute cash to boost the return. While there isn’t an immense amount of surplus value in Holland’s contract, interested rivals will surely be intrigued at the possibility of getting him for a one-year commitment with another available option year rather than possibly being forced to promise more to woo him via free agency.

7:11pm: The Rangers are willing to trade left-hander Derek Holland, over whom they hold an $11MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Heyman hears that Holland may have played his final game as a member of the Rangers, writing that they’d prefer to move him rather than keep him on the books. Furthermore, he tweets that a few teams are showing interest in Holland, and a trade would happen “soon” if it were to take place. The timing component of that followup isn’t much of a surprise, as teams have until five days after the conclusion of the World Series to decide on the options for their players, but it’s certainly notable that teams are expressing interest.

While Holland may not appear like a highly appealing trade candidate on the heels of a disappointing season, there are a few reasons to believe that clubs would be willing to take him on at $11MM next year. First and foremost, the free-agent market for starting pitching is a veritable wasteland this offseason, with the top names available including Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson and Ivan Nova. Sheer supply and demand should lead to interest in Holland, especially if the Rangers are willing to pick up a bit of the tab or to take on another fairly notable contract in return.

At 30 years old, Holland is still young enough to believe that there could be a rebound in his bottom-line results, which admittedly weren’t pretty in 2016. Holland had his healthiest season since 2013 this year — he’s missed time previously due to shoulder and knee injuries — but he pitched his way out of the rotation and ultimately finished the year with a 4.95 ERA in 107 1/3 innings. His average fastball velocity was 93.6 mph during a terrific 2013 season, but injuries and aging caused that mark to dip to 91.7 mph this past season. Accordingly, Holland’s K/9 rate has dipped from 8.0 to 5.6, and his ground-ball rate fell south of 40 percent this season as well.

None of that paints a very good picture, of course, but Holland’s unsightly ERA would be nearly a full run lower were it not for an 11-run drubbing that was handed out by the Blue Jays in Toronto back on May 5. He went on to post a 4.42 ERA from that point forth and at one point went through a stretch of 10 outings where he delivered seven quality starts and posted a 3.65 ERA. While the overall season was one to forget, there were glimpses of the pitcher that once looked to be developing into a Rangers rotation mainstay. It’s not uncommon for rebound candidates to get several million dollars in free agency anyway, and Holland’s contract comes with the upside of a club option for the 2018 season. If he’s able to rebound even to the point where he pitches like a solid fourth starter, Holland would prove to be a nice value with that extra year of club control.

The lack of quality hurlers on the market was one of the primary reasons that I recently examined a number of borderline club options for starting pitchers, including Holland, and opined that teams would be wise to exercise the options even if the ultimate outcome was that those arms would be traded. Based on Heyman’s report, it sounds like the Rangers could potentially move Holland even before that decision is due, and it’s certainly not out of the question that others such as Jaime Garcia and Clay Buchholz could find themselves in a similar boat. Certainly, teams with club options over borderline players are feeling out the trade market right now in similar fashion to the Rangers, as evidenced by Ken Rosenthal’s report from earlier today that the likes of Pat Neshek, Fernando Rodney and Carlos Ruiz are all available in trade talks.

Carlos Gomez Expected To Seek Multi-Year Deal

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Oufielder Carlos Gomez is expected to seek a multi-year contract in free agency, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. In fact, per the report, Gomez may attempt to receive as many as five guaranteed years.

That length of contract would be a surprise for someone who’ll soon turn 31 years of age and hasn’t played at his typical levels over the past two seasons. But multiple years certainly seem achievable if that is what Gomez prefers.

The question was — and, perhaps, still is — whether Gomez will be able to secure enough guaranteed money to take a multi-year pact rather than accepting a one-year deal with hopes of boosting his value. Agent Scott Boras has pursued pillow contracts in the past (e.g., Edwin Jackson) rather than settling for disappointing offers, and even took a qualifying offer last year with Matt Wieters before fully testing his market value.

One notable factor is that Gomez is not eligible to be hit with a qualifying offer from the Rangers because he spent the first half of the season with another organization. That distinguishes him from Dexter Fowler and Ian Desmond, the other top center field-capable outfielders available, and could help open his market up to some teams that are loath to part with a draft pick.

It’s also fair to wonder whether Gomez has greater incentive to max out his earnings than would some other free agents. He previously took a three-year, $24MM extension with the Brewers — a healthy sum, no doubt, but also far less than he would have been able to command on the open market.

In the final analysis, teams and Gomez will be faced with some tough calls. At base, they’ll relate to the same question: is he still capable of providing significant value up the middle and at the plate? Or is he just a passable defensive outfielder who is no longer a big power or on-base threat?

Gomez has shown both sides of late, of course. In 126 games with the Astros, he managed only a .221/.277/.342 slash with nine home runs (but also 23 stolen bases). But he seemed to be rejuvenated after joining the Rangers, slashing .284/.362/.543 and hitting eight dingers over 130 plate appearances. And Boras suggests to Heyman that the team also helped him improve his vision — lending some credence to the idea that there was a real turnaround rather than a sample blip.

Giants, Red Sox, Rangers, Yankees Among Teams Set To Watch Greg Holland Showcase

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SATURDAY: The Yankees will also send representatives to watch Holland on Monday, according to George A. King III of the New York Post.

FRIDAY: The Red Sox are also showing some interest and will attend the showcase, which is scheduled for Monday, per WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Likewise, the Rangers will be on hand, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan tweets.

THURSDAY: The Giants are “legitimately intrigued” by former Royals closer Greg Holland and will scout his upcoming showcase, Andrew Baggarly of the Bay Area News Group tweets. Holland’s agent, Scott Boras, recently said Holland was throwing in the low 90s and would hold a showcase within the next week.

Holland missed the 2016 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery near the end of the 2015 season. He understandably struggled somewhat that year while pitching through a UCL tear, posting a 3.83 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and a too-high 5.2 BB/9 while throwing his fastball an average of about two MPH slower than the mid-90s heater he’d thrown previously. Before that, though, he was dominant, posting a combined 1.86 ERA, 12.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 from 2011 through 2014.

If Holland is now mostly or fully healthy, it’s for the first time in awhile. But it’s easy to see why the Giants (and, surely, many other teams) would have significant interest. He has an extremely impressive track record, and he’ll be far enough removed from surgery by next March that it’s easy to imagine he could reemerge as an effective, or even terrific, reliever if everything goes well. The Royals have also been connected to Holland, and it seems likely other teams besides San Francisco and Kansas City will enter the fray too.

Rangers Could Distribute Levine's Duties To Other Front Office Employees

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  • With assistant Thad Levine departing to become GM of the Twins, Rangers GM Jon Daniels says his team could replace Levine with an outside hire but could also distribute his duties to other members of the front office, as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets.

Rangers Select Drew Robinson's Contract

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  • The Rangers have announced that they’ve selected the contract of IF/OF Drew Robinson, preventing him from becoming a minor league free agent. The 24-year-old had a solid season with Triple-A Round Rock in 2016, batting .257/.350/.480 with 20 home runs in 539 plate appearances. Robinson has struck out in more than a quarter of his career minor league plate appearances and typically doesn’t hit for good averages, but his walk-heavy offensive game has been resilient as he’s moved through the Rangers’ system, and his ability to play six positions (first, second, third and all three outfield spots) could help make him useful at the big-league level.

Rangers Prefer To Have Joey Gallo Start 2017 In Minors

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The Rangers’ plans for first base in 2017 aren’t entirely clear, but it appears Joey Gallo does not top their list of potential starters at the position, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News notes. “We think Joey is going to be a very good player in this league, but when is still too early to say,” says GM Jon Daniels. “Ideally, he’d probably get a little more time, unless there is a big jump like Ryan Rua took last year.” Daniels cites Jurickson Profar and Rua as candidates for playing time at first.

Incumbent first baseman Mitch Moreland is a free agent this winter, and Gallo is a talented minor league slugger with a long history of hitting for incredible power — he’s hit 152 home runs, many of the light-tower variety, in parts of five minor league seasons. He’s a third baseman by trade, but he played 32 games at first base in for Triple-A Round Rock last season and would appear to be an obvious candidate to take over the position now that there’s a vacancy. The Rangers could also have playing time available at DH, depending on how this offseason shakes out.

Gallo also has obvious weaknesses, however. He struck out in nearly 35% of his plate appearances last year at Round Rock, and has whiffed a ridiculous 76 times in 153 plate appearances in the big leagues. He would likely have a hard time posting batting averages above the Mendoza Line without improvements in that category, and the Rangers might feel Round Rock is the best place to address his deficiencies. Gallo went to Venezuela this offseason to work on his game in winter ball, but has been sidelined by a hamstring injury.

Rangers Will Make Qualifying Offer To Ian Desmond

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The Rangers will make a $17.2MM qualifying offer to outfielder Ian Desmond, general manager Jon Daniels told reporters today (Twitter link via MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan). He’ll be the only Rangers free agent to receive one, though that’s not a surprise, as their other QO-eligible players (Colby Lewis and Mitch Moreland) have never been viewed as candidates.

The decision to extend a qualifying offer to Desmond was fairly straightforward, as the shortstop-turned-center-fielder had a terrific season in his lone year with Texas. Signed to a one-year, $8MM deal this past offseason after the multi-year deal he sought failed to materialize, Desmond proved to be one of the best bargains in all of baseball. Although Desmond, who turned 31 in September, tailed off in terms of productivity late in the season, he still finished out the year with a .285/.335/.446 batting line to go along with 22 homers, 21 stolen bases and respectable defensive marks in the outfield considering his lack of experience there. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating both pegged Desmond as above average in left field in his time there early in the season, and while he drew slightly negative marks in center field from both metrics, there’s reason to believe that a player of his athleticism can post superior marks in 2017 with a year of experience now under his belt.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that Desmond will exclusively market himself as an outfielder. The former Nationals star, who switched agencies earlier this week and is now represented by CAA, is only a year removed from playing shortstop and could conceivably be viewed by teams as an option at other infield positions as well. From that standpoint, his new representatives could pitch him as a jack of all trades that needn’t be locked into one position, and that versatility could prove lucrative.

Even though rejecting a qualifying offer after the 2015 season undoubtedly played a role in Desmond’s struggles to find a significant multi-year deal last winter, it’d still be a surprise if he accepted the offer. Qualifying offers are formally due on Monday of next week, and from that point, players have one week to decide whether they’ll accept or reject. Coming off a much stronger 2016 season and with newfound defensive versatility to pitch to interested parties, Desmond should be able to land a nice multi-year deal in free agency — one of at least four years in length, in my view.

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