Rangers, Ian Kennedy Agree To Deal
The Rangers are re-signing Ian Kennedy, the veteran reliever announced on Instagram this afternoon. Presumably, it’ll be a minor league deal for the Boras Corporation client.
Kennedy spent the first half of the 2021 season in Arlington. Those months were among the best of his past four seasons as a full-time reliever. After cracking the MLB roster following an offseason minors deal, Kennedy quickly pitched his way into the closer’s role. He saved 16 games through 32 appearances while posting a 2.51 ERA over 32 1/3 frames. At that summer’s deadline, the then-rebuilding Texas club packaged Kennedy with veteran starter Kyle Gibson to Philadelphia for righty Spencer Howard.
The 16-year MLB veteran fanned almost 27% of opponents with the Phils but surrendered a staggering seven homers in 24 innings. In spite of the poor finish, Kennedy landed a $4.75MM guarantee from the Diamondbacks last winter. He made 57 appearances during his second stint in the desert but struggled. Kennedy managed only a 5.36 ERA over 50 1/3 innings. He continued to battle the longball, allowing nearly two home runs per nine innings, while his strikeout percentage plummeted to a 19% clip. At season’s end, the D-Backs made the fairly easy call to buy out a mutual option on his services for 2023.
Kennedy carries a 4.30 ERA in 190 appearances since making his bullpen conversion during the 2019 campaign. He’s shown the ability to miss bats at an above-average rate while throwing a decent number of strikes at his best. The 38-year-old will look to recapture some of his early-2021 success in a second crack as a Ranger.
Rangers, Reyes Moronta Agree To Minor League Deal
The Rangers have agreed to a minor league deal with right-hander Reyes Moronta, tweets Levi Weaver of The Athletic. Moronta, a client of L.A. Sports Management, will reunite with his former manager in San Francisco, Bruce Bochy.
Moronta, who turned 30 earlier this month, has spent his entire career up to this point in the National League West, logging a decade with San Francisco and splitting the 2022 campaign between L.A. and Arizona. He’s coming off a 4.30 ERA in a combined 37 2/3 innings between the Dodgers and D-backs, during which time he punched out 23.6% of his opponents against an 11% walk rate. The D-backs, however, non-tendered him in November.
The 2022 season marked Moronta’s healthiest campaign since undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder late in the 2019 season. Moronta didn’t pitch with the Giants in 2020 and tallied just 22 innings between Triple-A and the big leagues in 2021 while finishing off the rehab from that procedure.
Prior to his injury, Moronta held the potential to become a mainstay in the Giants’ bullpen. From 2017-19, he piled up 128 1/3 innings of 2.66 ERA ball with a hefty 29.8% strikeout rate and a heater that averaged 97.1 mph. Command has long been an issue for the big righty, evidenced by a bloated 13.6% walk rate even during that peak. At his best, however, he mitigated those free passes by avoiding home runs (0.63 HR/9) and ranking among the game’s best at limiting hard contact (86.4 mph average exit velocity, 30.6% hard-hit rate).
Moronta has yet to fully regain the life on his fastball post-surgery. He sat at 95.3 mph in 2022 — still well above the league-average — although it’s perhaps worth pointing out that his velocity crept up to an average of 96.1 mph over the season’s final month. The Rangers will hope that a reunion with Bochy, plus some further distance from that 2019 shoulder procedure, can get him closer to his 2017-19 form.
Beyond the fact that it reunites him with his old skipper, the deal with Texas puts Moronta in a relatively good landing spot for a reliever looking to reestablish himself. Texas has a talented bullpen but is lacking in established relievers, outside of its top names. Jose Leclerc is likely to reprise his role as the team’s closer. Fellow righty Joe Barlow has a spot locked up after posting a 2.81 ERA through his first 64 big league frames, and lefty Brock Burke posted what could be the quietest sub-2.00 ERA in the Majors last year.
Elsewhere, Jonathan Hernandez notched a 2.97 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery but did so with some command issues. Taylor Hearn was better as a reliever than a starter but is still looking to cement himself in that role. John King proved himself to be a ground-ball machine but didn’t miss many bats. Veteran Jake Odorizzi appears ticketed for long relief or sixth starter work.
Suffice it to say, there’s room for Moronta to work his way back into the mix, particularly given a still-thin slate of fellow non-roster invitees to camp. Jacob Barnes and Zack Littell are among the minor league free agents the Rangers have also picked up this winter.
Latest On Market For Left-Handed Relievers
With less than three weeks to go until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, most of the top free agents have already signed with clubs for the upcoming season. One segment of the market that’s been strangely quiet, however, is left-handed relief. Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore and Zack Britton are some of the noteworthy southpaws still unattached, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Rangers, Angels, Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs and Mets are interested in their services.
Those three relievers bring varying levels of appeal to the interested clubs. Britton, 35, was arguably the best reliever in the league for an extended stretch though he entered free agency on a down note after a couple of seasons lost to injury. Moore, 34 in June, is in effectively the opposite position of Britton, as he has a lengthy track record of disappointing results but hit the open market on the upswing. Chafin, 33 in June, has been fairly consistent in recent years, apart from a small-sample blip in the shortened 2020 season.
Britton posted an incredible 1.84 ERA over a seven-year stretch from 2014 to 2020, thanks to a bowling ball sinker that bordered on unhittable. He got grounders on a ludicrous 76.2% of balls in play over that time, almost double a typical league average of about 43%. He was limited to just 18 1/3 innings in 2021 before requiring surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow. During that procedure, it was determined that he would also need Tommy John surgery, which put him out of action until late in 2022. He did make it back to the hill last year but his velocity was down and his control was all over the place. He finished the season on the injured list for shoulder fatigue. He would be a risky acquisition at this point given his uncertain health but he recently held a showcase for clubs and will surely entice one of them to take a gamble based on his previous excellence.
Moore was once one of the top prospects in the game and seemed like a rotation building block for the Rays a decade ago. However, Tommy John surgery in 2014 put him out of action for an extended stretch and he struggled once back on the mound. He bounced around to various different clubs for years, including a stint in Japan, but never really got things back on track. But a full-time move to the bullpen last year has seemingly given him a second act, as he posted a 1.95 ERA over 74 innings for the Rangers. His 12.5% walk rate was certainly concerning, but he also struck out 27.3% of batters faced and got grounders at a healthy 43.9% clip.
Chafin has posted a 3.05 ERA from 2017 to the present, even with his rough 2020 campaign. He’s been even better recently, with a 2.29 ERA over the past couple of seasons, striking out 25.7% of batters faced, walking just 7.5% of them and keeping the ball on the ground at a 47.9% clip.
All three pitchers will surely interest clubs to some degree but Rosenthal hears from one executive that the Matt Strahm signing has slowed things down. The Phillies signed him to a two-year, $15MM deal back in December, despite a somewhat shaky track record. He got some good results in his first few seasons, working mostly in relief but with the occasional start. He had an unusual season with the Padres in 2019 as he attempted to become a starter. He made 16 starts that year but posted a 5.29 ERA in that role against a 3.27 mark in 30 relief appearances. Back in the bullpen in 2020, he registered a 2.61 ERA in the shortened season but only got into six games in 2021 due to various injuries. He bounced back with the Red Sox in 2022 with a 3.83 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 36.8% ground ball rate. Each of Moore and Chafin are coming off a stronger 2022 season than Strahm while Britton has a more impressive career overall. Strahm is younger than the rest of them but not by too much, having recently turned 31. Perhaps the free agents are trying to match or top the $15MM guarantee that Strahm secured and has yet to convince a team to pull the trigger on that.
Despite lingering on the market, it doesn’t seem like there’s any shortage of interest. Just about any team with designs on contending could fit another arm into their bullpen and it seems like they’re all keeping tabs here. The Rangers’ southpaw contingent took a blow recently as Brett Martin required shoulder surgery and will likely miss most of the upcoming campaign. They still have Brock Burke, Taylor Hearn and John King in the mix but it wouldn’t hurt to bolster that group. The Angels have Aaron Loup and José Quijada lined up as their primary southpaw relievers but Loup is now 35 and Quijada has control issues. The Astros are a fairly logical fit since their only lefty relievers on the 40-man are Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski, both of whom have fairly limited track records.
The Red Sox have Joely Rodríguez as their only obvious southpaw reliever, though Chris Sale or James Paxton could move from the rotation at some point since they have each hardly pitched in the past three years. Their various injuries have severely limited their innings recently and they might struggle to handle a starter’s workload for a full season. The Jays have Tim Mayza and Matt Gage as left-handed options in their relief corps, though Yusei Kikuchi spent some time there last year after getting bumped from the rotation, a situation that could play out again this year.
The Brewers have Hoby Milner as their most straightforward lefty reliever, though Wade Miley and Aason Ashby could spend some time there if they get nudged out of a crowded rotation. The Cardinals have Genesis Cabrera slated to be the go-to guy but their other choices are optionable and have limited experience, including Packy Naughton, JoJo Romero and Zack Thompson. The Cubs make a lot of sense for adding a lefty reliever, as they currently only have Brandon Hughes on the 40, who could be in line for a closer’s role as opposed to a situational lefty job.
The Yankees recently let Lucas Luetge go, designating him for assignment and flipping him to Atlanta. That has left Wandy Peralta as the club’s only option from the left side in their bullpen. Adding even a modest contract to their books might be an issue, however, as they are reportedly concerned about crossing the final tier of the competitive balance tax. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT figure at $292.3MM, just a hair under the final line of $293MM. Making any external addition without making up that difference will be a challenge. Trading the contract of someone like Josh Donaldson or Aaron Hicks would give them some more breathing room but the Yanks haven’t been able to find a deal so far.
The interest of the Mets might be complicated as well, as Rosenthal reports that they are hesitant to add another out-of-options pitcher to the mix and reduce their roster flexibility. All players with more than five years of service time cannot be optioned without their consent, meaning that all of these veterans are in that category. None of Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino, David Robertson or Brooks Raley can be optioned to the minors either.
For clubs that miss out on Chafin, Britton and Moore, some of the other lefties still available include Will Smith, Brad Hand and Justin Wilson.
Rangers Sign Jacob Barnes To Minor League Deal
The Rangers announced four minor league deals today, with three of them being the previously reported deals for catcher Sandy León as well as right-handers Kyle Funkhouser and Zack Littell. The fourth deal is with right-hander Jacob Barnes. All four players will receive invitations to major league Spring Training.
Barnes, 33 in April, is a veteran that has appeared in the big leagues in each season since 2016. However, the 2022 campaign was strange for him in a couple of ways. For one thing, he bounced around quite a bit. He signed a minor league deal with the Tigers and made their Opening Day roster. He was designated for assignment in June and signed a minor league deal with the Mariners. The M’s selected him to their roster in July but designated him for assignment the next day without Barnes getting into a game. That was followed by another minor league deal with the Tigers, a release, a minors deal with the Yankees, cracking the Yankee roster in October, getting into a single game before being designated for assignment yet again.
Amid all those travels, he had an odd split in his strikeouts. Coming into 2022, he had punched out 24.4% of batters faced in his major league career. But last year, it was just 12.4% in 22 1/3 big league innings but a huge 32.9% rate in 18 Triple-A frames. Those diminished strikeout totals in the majors led to a 5.64 ERA on the season.
Strange year aside, Barnes has appeared in 252 MLB games to this point in his career with a 4.70 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 49% ground ball rate. The club’s projected relievers on the 40-man roster are all in their 20s, though 32-year-old Jake Odorizzi could wind up in the bullpen as a long man. Aside from him, José Leclerc is the only other reliever to have surpassed four years in service time. If Barnes can crack the club’s roster, he no longer has options, meaning he would have to retain his spot or else be given the DFA treatment again. If he manages to hang on through the end of the season, the Rangers would have the option of retaining Barnes for 2024 via arbitration.
Rangers, Marlins Among Teams Interested In Jurickson Profar
Outfielder Jurickson Profar is one of the top free agents that still remains unsigned and he is drawing plenty of interest around the league. He’s already been connected to the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox at various points throughout the winter and it seems there are a few more teams involved. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the teams interested in Bryan Reynolds are keeping tabs on Profar, a group which includes the Marlins and Rangers.
Reynolds has been consistently in trade rumors for quite some time, which is fairly logical given that he’s emerged as a very good player on a rebuilding Pirates team. He won’t be a free agent until after 2025 and the team could find itself back in contention in that time, but there would also be sense in exchanging his final years of control for younger players that can continue to help the club beyond that timeframe. The Bucs could prolong their relationship with Reynolds by extending him, but recent reporting indicates the sides have been about $50MM apart in their discussions, suggesting a deal isn’t likely to get done anytime soon.
Various teams have tried to free Reynolds from Pittsburgh’s clutches over the past year or two and the player himself has even asked for a trade, but all reports have indicated that the Bucs have been sticking to a high asking price in any trade talks. Jon Heyman of The New York Post recently reported that they are looking for a return analogous to what the Nationals got in the Juan Soto deal. Given the difficulty in working something out with the Pittsburgh front office, it’s understandable that clubs would look to alternatives like Profar.
There are some similarities between the two players as both are switch-hitting outfielders. They’re actually not terribly far apart in age, despite Profar debuting all the way back in 2012. He was only 19 years old then and is now about to turn 30 next month. Reynolds is a couple of years younger, turning 28 in just over a week.
They are also both outfielders, though Reynolds has decidedly more value on defense given that he’s a passable center fielder. Teams will likely have varying views over exactly how passable he is there, since the advanced defensive metrics are split on how to grade his work up the middle. He’s accrued 4 Outs Above Average in his career at that spot but has -16 Defensive Runs Saved and a -7.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Profar, meanwhile, began his career as an infielder but has gradually spent more and more time in the outfield. Since 2019, he’s made brief appearances at second and first base but hasn’t appeared at shortstop or third base. Last year, the Padres kept him exclusively in left field. He did spend 156 2/3 innings in center field over 2020 and 2021 but wasn’t graded well there and is likely considered a corner outfielder by most clubs.
At the plate, Reynolds and Profar have admirable qualities, but in different ways. Both players are good at getting on base, with Reynolds posting a .345 OBP last year and .361 mark for his career. Profar is slightly behind in that regard, with a .331 OBP in 2022 and .322 overall. Reynolds is also ahead in the power department, hitting 27 home runs last year and 74 in his career thus far. Profar hit 15 last year and has only 78 in his career, despite more than 1,000 extra plate appearances compared to Reynolds. Profar’s work was enough for a 110 wRC+ last year, 10% better than league average, but behind the 125 that Reynolds managed.
There’s little doubting that Reynolds is a more enticing option than Profar but the latter option will cost only money, allowing the acquiring club to hang onto the pile of prospects they would theoretically send to Pittsburgh in a Reynolds deal. MLBTR predicted Profar could secure a two-year, $20MM deal at the start of the offseason. That was before the market really got going and surpassed the expectations of many observers, though Profar lingering on the market suggests no team has been eager to blow him away by surging beyond that vicinity.
The Rangers currently have a competitive balance tax calculation of $219MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. Signing someone like Profar to about $10MM per year would start pushing them close to the $233MM luxury tax threshold. It’s unclear if that’s any kind of barrier for the club, but it’s something they would have to consider if they decide to bring Profar into the fold. The Marlins, meanwhile, are nowhere near the luxury tax but are in somewhat uncharted spending territory for them. Roster Resource has their payroll currently at $103MM. That’s well beyond last year’s $79MM mark, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and the highest since the Bruce Sherman-led group bought the team from Jeffrey Loria in 2017. It’s unknown how much more they have to work with but any further spending would continue to stretch them beyond comfort zone of the past few years.
Regardless of the final cost, there are logical reasons for both teams to pursue outfield upgrades. The Rangers have Adolis García in right field and Leody Taveras as a glove-first option in center. They’ve been on the hunt for left field upgrades, given that their current choices make up a mixed bag of imperfect options. Brad Miller, Josh Smith, Ezequiel Durán and Mark Mathias are on the roster, though they’ve all spent more time on the infield than the outfield in their careers. Furthermore, all but Mathias are coming off poor seasons at the plate. Bubba Thompson is a more straightforward solution since he’s an outfielder and can at least steal some bases, but he strikes out a ton and hit .265/.302/.312 in his major league debut.
The Marlins have been seeking outfield upgrades for quite some time but added a few options into the corners last year by signing Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler. Both players had disappointing seasons in 2022 but are still under contract for 2023, with Soler seemingly ticketed for plenty of time as the designated hitter after he dealt with back spasms in the later parts of last season. That could leave one corner available for someone like Profar, though they also have Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and JJ Bleday currently lined up to battle for the two spots next to Garcia. None of those three are truly established and an external addition could bump them all down the depth charts until they take steps forward in cementing themselves. De La Cruz hits right-handed and the other two from the left side, which could allow them to form a platoon in center with one player getting nudged to the bench or the minors.
Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023
News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.
Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.
Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.
Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021
Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.
Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021
Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022 season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.
José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively
Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.
Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021
Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.
James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021
Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.
Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021
May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.
Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021
Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.
Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021
Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.
Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021
Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.
Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021
Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.
Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022
Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.
Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022
Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.
John Means, Orioles — April 2022
Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.
Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022
Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.
Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022
Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.
Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022
Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.
Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022
Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.
Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022
Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.
Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022
Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.
September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper
These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.
Rangers Sign Yoshi Tsutsugo To Minor League Deal
The Rangers announced that first baseman/outfielder Yoshi Tsutsugo has been signed to a minor league contract. Tsutsugo’s deal contains an invitation to the Rangers’ big league Spring Training camp.
Tsutsugo came to the majors in the 2019-20 offseason, but Texas will be the fifth different organization Tsutsugo has suited up during his relatively brief time in North American baseball. A well-regarded slugger during his NPB career, Tsutsugo has only shown brief flashes of that form in MLB, hitting .197/.291/.339 over 640 plate appearances with the Rays, Dodgers, and Pirates.
Most of Tsutsugo’s offensive production came over a 43-game, 144-PA stint with Pittsburgh in 2021, which led the Bucs to re-sign him to a one-year, $4MM deal last offseason. Unfortunately for both sides, Tsutsugo managed only a .478 OPS over 193 PA in 2022, and he generated a sub-replacement level -1.3 fWAR. The Pirates released Tsutsugo in August and he caught on with the Blue Jays on a minor league deal, but Toronto never gave Tsutsugo a call back up to the majors.
Now entering his age-31 season, Tsutsugo will look for a fresh start as he tries to break camp with Texas. Tsutsugo offers a left-handed bat, a decent walk rate amidst his overall offensive struggles, and the ability to play first base and both corner outfield slots (though the Bucs only used Tsutsugo as a first baseman and DH in 2022). It makes for something of an imperfect fit on the Rangers roster, however, since starting first baseman Nathaniel Lowe and first-choice DH Brad Miller are also both left-handed hitters. The Rangers could see Tsutsugo as another depth option for its unsettled left field picture, even if Texas might prefer to see what it has in its younger players — assuming a much more established veteran than Tsutsugo isn’t ultimately acquired to take over the everyday left field job.
Notable International Signings: 1/15/2023
Major League Baseball’s international signing period for 2023 has officially opened up today, with many of the big names signing almost immediately. Teams have long since agreed to verbal agreements with newly eligible teenage players, and today’s signings largely represent confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon the start of their professional careers.
As previously mentioned, most of the agreements have been known for a while, with Baseball America‘s Ben Badler and MLB.com‘s Jesse Sanchez having listed each player’s expected landing spot. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Here are a few key deals:
- Ethan Salas, C, Venezuela — Padres ($5.6MM): Ranked as the top prospect by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, the 16-year-old is considered by MLB Pipeline as “one of the best catching prospects in recent history” and is lauded for his strike zone control, power, and defense. Scouts have specifically highlighted his swing and soft hands. Born in June 2006, the backstop is the youngest player in MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 International Prospect Rankings. The young switch-hitter is no stranger to high-level baseball, with his grandfather, father, and uncle all playing professionally, and his older brother Jose Salas signed by the Marlins in 2019. Salas’ $5.6MM deal will comprise almost all of the Padres’ base signing pool of $5.825,000.
- Felnin Celesten, SS, Dominican Republic — Mariners ($4.7MM): MLB Pipeline’s second-best prospect and Baseball America’s third-best, Celesten has been heralded as having “the highest ceiling of any international shortstop prospect in a decade” by MLB Pipeline. Scouts have noted the switch-hitter’s plus speed, arm, and raw power. However, Baseball America reports that Celesten has “an aggressive approach” and “might need to become a more selective hitter.“
- Brando Mayea, OF, Cuba — Yankees ($4.4MM): Baseball America’s second-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s ninth-best, Mayea has drawn praise for his bat speed, power, and approach to the plate, with one scout going as far as to describe the 17-year-old as a “mini Gary Sheffield.” Scouts have praised the righty’s strong arm, with some expecting an eventual move to a corner outfield position.
- Alfredo Duno, C, Venezuela — Reds (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fourth-best prospect and Baseball America’s seventh-best, Duno is a 17-year-old catcher that boasts three above-average tools — his fielding, arm, and power. Scouts have praised his “elite bat speed” and defensive ability. MLB Pipeline and Baseball America both predict that Duno will remain behind the plate, but both also cite his swing-and-miss tendencies as a result of his aggressive approach.
- Emmanuel Bonilla, OF, Dominican Republic — Blue Jays ($4.1MM): Baseball America’s fourth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s seventh-best, Bonilla profiles as a slugging outfielder that has a chance to remain in centerfield but will likely move to a corner position as the 16-year-old matures. Scouts have praised the righty’s bat speed and swing, with Baseball America reporting that some scouts believe Bonilla has “one of the best combinations of hitting ability and power in the class.”
- Luis Morales, RHP, Cuba — Athletics (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fifth-best prospect and Baseball America’s ninth-best, Morales is a hard-throwing righty with a fastball that sits between 94-97 MPH with a slider, changeup, and curveball as secondary pitches. Born in Cuba, Morales was considered the best U-18 pitcher on the island, setting a record for strikeouts (161) in 82 2/3 innings between 2019 and 2020. He defected in 2021 while playing for Cuba’s U-23 team in Mexico. Morales, 20, is one of the oldest high-profile international prospects and thus may be potentially fast-tracked through the A’s system.
- Sebastian Walcott, SS, Bahamas — Rangers (Unknown): Baseball America’s sixth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s eighth-best, Walcott is a 6’3, 170 lbs (6’4, 190 lbs, per Baseball America) 16-year-old that has impressed scouts with high raw power and bat speed. Despite being 6’3, Walcott has drawn praise for his contact skills, hand-eye coordination, and his fluid swing. Baseball America projects that as Walcott matures, he will outgrow the shortstop position and transition to third base.
Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2M or more, with the specifics provided by Sanchez:
- Brailer Guerrero, OF, D.R., Rays ($3.7MM) [MLB Pipeline #12, BA #5]
- Jesus Caba, SS, D.R., Phillies ($3MM) [MLB Pipeline #11, BA #8]
- Ariel Castro, OF, Cuba, Twins ($2.5MM) [MLB Pipeline #11, BA#13]
- Rayner Arias, OF, D.R., Giants ($2.8MM) [MLB Pipeline #15, BA #8]
- Camilo Diaz, OF, D.R., Astros ($2.25MM) [MLB Pipeline #17, BA #19]
- Luis Almeyda, SS, D.R., Orioles ($2.3MM) [MLB Pipeline #20, BA #17]
- Roberto Calaz, OF, D.R., Rockies ($2.5MM) [MLB Pipeline #24, BA #14]
Brett Martin To Undergo Shoulder Surgery
Rangers reliever Brett Martin will undergo shoulder surgery, as first reported by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link). A specific timeline will become clearer after the operation but Grant writes he’s likely to miss most of the 2023 campaign.
It’s an unfortunate development for the left-hander, who ended last year on the injured list thanks to a shoulder strain. While it seemed he and the club were hopeful the issue would subside with a non-surgical treatment plan, that won’t wind up being the case. Levi Weaver of the Athletic tweets that Martin’s surgery is scheduled for next week.
The 27-year-old has pitched for Texas in each of the past four seasons. He’s been one of their more trusted southpaws for the past two years, combining for a 3.61 ERA through 112 1/3 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign. He posted a 4.14 mark over 55 appearances last season. Martin only struck out 18.9% of opponents but kept the ball on the ground at a quality 50.7% clip. He held same-handed hitters to a .194/.242/.290 line over 67 plate appearances.
Despite the injury, Martin and the club agreed to a $1.275MM contract for the upcoming season. That buys out his first of three would-be arbitration years, and he remains under club control through the 2025 campaign. Under the new collective bargaining agreement, eligible players who avoid a hearing with an arbitration settlement are entitled to full termination pay if released. In previous years, teams could cut players before Opening Day and only owe a portion of the agreed-upon salary. Texas’ outlay in this case is rather modest but suggests the front office still has faith in Martin to bounce back after his rehab and contribute, either down the stretch or in future seasons.
With Martin likely out for an extended period, Texas is dealt a hit to their lefty relief depth. Brock Burke somewhat quietly posted a 1.97 ERA over 82 1/3 innings as a rookie last season, earning himself a high-leverage role in the process. Former highly-regarded prospect Taylor Hearn has been hit around as a starter but posted a 3.51 ERA while limiting opponents to a .208/.276/.318 line over 41 innings of relief. John King is a similar low-strikeout grounder specialist to Martin and a generally solid matchup option.
The Rangers could consider that trio a strong enough group to handle the workload for new skipper Bruce Bochy, even with Martin injured and Matt Moore hitting free agency. Moore is still unsigned, as are Andrew Chafin and Will Smith. That provides some potential options for GM Chris Young and his front office if they’re interested in further adding to the bullpen.
Rangers, Zack Littell Agree To Minor League Deal
The Rangers and free-agent righty Zack Littell are in agreement on a minor league contract, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The CAA client will be invited to Major League camp with Texas this spring.
Littell has appeared in parts of five big league seasons, all with either the Twins or Giants. The 27-year-old has had something of a rollercoaster career, with wild year-to-year swings in his ERA. He’s twice posted a sub-3.00 mark, however, most recently with the 2021 Giants, for whom he logged a 2.92 earned run average with a 25% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate and 46.9% ground-ball rate while averaging 95 mph on his heater.
Unfortunately, Littell wasn’t able to replicate that success in 2022. He logged 44 1/3 innings out of the Giants’ bullpen but was tagged for a 5.08 ERA with noticeable drops in strikeout rate (20.5%) and fastball velocity (94.4 mph).
Littell’s struggles boiled over into a late-season incident where he had some words for manager Gabe Kapler upon being pulled from a relief appearance, which prompted a heated conversation between the two in the dugout tunnel shortly thereafter. Littell apologized for the behavior, noting that he was more frustrated with himself for his performance than anything else. Nonetheless, that proved his final game with the Giants, who optioned him to Triple-A the next day and outrighted him off the 40-man roster following the season. He elected to become a minor league free agent.
All in all, Littell has pitched 169 2/3 innings in the Majors with a 4.08 ERA, 21% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 42.8% ground-ball rate. He has 3.067 years of Major League service time, so if the Rangers select his contract to the big league roster at any point, he’ll be controllable through at least the 2025 season (and, depending on the timing of that promotion, perhaps through the 2026 campaign). He’d need to find the consistency that has eluded him to this point in his career for those additional years of control to prominently come into play, but Littell has shown at multiple points in the past that he has the potential to be a quality bullpen arm.