Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag News & Rumors

This week's mailbag gets into the Giants' rotation, why Framber Valdez remains unsigned, a thorough look at where Eugenio Suarez could land, the Tigers and Nationals, and more collective bargaining thoughts.

Paul asks:

Who makes sense for the Giants to add to their rotation?

Daryn asks:

Why is Framber Valdez not signed yet? He is the best starting pitcher in the market. Is it his age and asking for a lot of years, or it is the clubhouse thing we hear about?

At present, the Giants' rotation looks like this:

• Logan Webb
• Robbie Ray
• Tyler Mahle
• Adrian Houser
• Landen Roupp

Like every team, they'll need reinforcements for injuries.  Ray is 34 and 2025 was his first full season in three years.  Houser is 33 and tossed a career-high 164 1/3 innings last year (Triple-A included).  Roupp missed 24 days with elbow inflammation and then saw his season end in August with a deep bone bruise to his knee.  Mahle missed over three months with shoulder soreness.

On the Mahle conference call, Giants GM Zack Minasian said, "I don’t know if we’re ever done. I think we’re very comfortable with the five that we have and then the bundle of arms behind them. Our depth is in a much better spot than it was at the beginning of the offseason, so we’re happy with where we’re at. We’ll keep working at it, but we do think this is a solid five-man rotation going into the spring."  That quote comes via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.

That bundle behind the starting five may include Hayden Birdsong, Kai-Wei Teng, Carson Seymour, Blade Tidwell, and Carson Whisenhunt, all of whom made big league starts last year.  Trevor McDonald and Keaton Winn are options as well.

The Giants are paying $21MM in AAV for Houser and Mahle this year, but neither can be counted on for a 2-WAR season.  I don't know that Zac Gallen would be enough of an improvement over the Giants' existing back-end options, but slotting Framber Valdez in behind Webb would be huge.  The Giants have a good team at present, but Valdez could add a crucial three wins over whoever he replaces.

Back in November, Giants owner Greg Johnson expressed reluctance to sign a pitcher to a long-term deal.  Just before that, MLBTR predicted a five-year deal for the 32-year-old Valdez.  Ranger Suarez signed a five-year deal two weeks ago, so it is possible to get that type of contract in January.  That said, we haven't seen a free agent starter get five years on January 28th or later since Yu Darvish in 2018.  As we get closer to pitchers and catchers reporting, the chance of Valdez getting a true five-year deal like Suarez decrease.

There are several factors that likely contribute to Valdez being unsigned on January 28th:

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This week's mailbag gets into Nico Hoerner trade possibilities, whether top remaining free agents will go short or long-term, what's next for the Red Sox after Alex Bregman signed with the Cubs, where free agents such as Lucas Giolito and Zac Gallen might land, and much more.

Marc asks:

Well, Tom Ricketts proved me wrong. I never thought he’d pony up for a high dollar FA again. So, what now? I see all the rumors about Nico Hoerner but I think the Edward Cabrera trade and Alex Bregman signing are “all in” moves and moving Hoerner would weaken them (I think). Is there another move you think they could/ should still make?

I was surprised as well.  I didn't think the Cubs would substantially improve their offer to Bregman from a year prior.  But while Bregman is a year older, he was also free of the qualifying offer this time around.  The signing is also a reminder that each offseason is its own beast with unique variables.  What might have changed for the Cubs in 2025?  They saw increased regular season attendance, hosted five playoff games at Wrigley, and got a better feel for what Matt Shaw can do in the Majors.  They may have also grown more enamored of Bregman, who seemed to be adored by Boston's young players.

I would not make a blanket statement that the Cubs should not trade Hoerner this winter - it always depends on the return.  But certainly the Cubs should not trade Hoerner if it makes them worse in 2026.

I haven't found a Cubs fan online who wants to trade Hoerner.  But I will play devil's advocate for a minute.

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This week's Front Office mailbag gets into the Dodgers adding a top free agent, Boston's offer to Alex Bregman as well as the Triston Casas situation, which bats the Reds could add, what's next for the Marlins and Mets, and much more.

William asks:

Any substance to the rumor that Bichette is signing with the Dodgers? How would that affect their tax? And who might they trade away?

Ron asks:

The Dodgers seem set for 2026 and beyond. They have young starting pitchers coming along and younger outfielders on the way. Left field and third base are the positions that might need tweaking this year or next. Could they grab the 2 best F.A.'s still available?

On January 1st, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote that the Dodgers (and Yankees and Cubs) "checked on" Bichette.  That's all Heyman gave us in that article - no further context.  Two days later in a tweet, Heyman added the Phillies to the list of teams that "have interest," beyond the well-known Blue Jays and Red Sox.

With all due respect to Heyman, that Dodgers-Bichette connection is pretty thin.  It'd almost be irresponsible for a big market team not to "check on" a quality player like Bichette as his free agency drags into the new year, especially a club with room for improvement in the infield.  We have no idea if anything more than due diligence has occurred between Bichette's camp and some of these clubs.

I hope we get better info, but GMs cannot shoot down free agent interest publicly, so if some of this is overstated we might not learn until after Bichette signs.

In late November, MLBTR's Anthony Franco included the Dodgers as a "plausible/on-paper dark horse" for Bichette, writing:

"There hasn’t been much in the way of Dodgers/Bichette smoke so far. This would feel a bit like overkill, but the Dodgers don’t have anyone locked in at second base. Their farm system is loaded with outfield talent but not as strong in the middle infield aside from Alex Freeland. Locking Bichette in at second would require them to play Tommy Edman mostly in center field coming off ankle surgery."

On Monday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote, "Dodgers people like to say that Andrew Friedman’s preferred method of operation is 'hanging around the backboard.' If a player’s price in trade or free agency drops, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations will attempt to grab him on the rebound and dunk on the industry yet again."

Friedman has had the Dodgers' top front office job for more than 11 years now, so we should have evidence of him "hanging around the backboard" and snatching up some top free agents whose market disappointed.  Below is what I found, which should help us determine whether the Dodgers might swoop in on Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette:

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This week's mailbag gets into whether Kyle Tucker will sign a shorter-term deal, options for the Rays at catcher, the trade value of controllable Mariners starters, the Tigers' offseason thus far, Dustin May's potential impact with the Cardinals, and much more.

Dave asks:

At this point do you think Kyle Tucker will take a high AAV deal — example: 5 years $250 million with opt outs after years 2 and 4?

I'm writing this on December 17th, and I don't think we're at that point with Tucker.  It's true that long-term free agent deals usually happen in December.  The last free agent deal of 8+ years that didn't happen in December was Bryce Harper in March 2019, with his 13-year deal coming a few weeks after Manny Machado's ten-year pact.

Eric Hosmer got an eight-year deal in February 2018, and Prince Fielder signed for nine years in January 2012.

That's about it, though, so if we get to the new year without a Tucker deal, the odds start shifting toward a shorter term.

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This week's mailbag gets into the Mets' offseason thus far, Craig Breslow's tenure atop Boston's front office, the Munetaka Murakami situation, how an expansion draft works, the Cubs' anti-deferral policy, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s trade value, and much more.

Ed asks:

I'm finding it hard to understand the Mets thinking. I'm scratching my head about the Marcus Semien/ Brandon Nimmo trade. I asked my friend who's a big Mets fan (his last name is Metz) what he thought and he responded that it depends on what outfielder they replace Nimmo with. I told him that unless they break the bank on Kyle Tucker its not going to be a clear upgrade. I'd say Cody Bellinger is an slight upgrade but after looking at their numbers its amazing how similar Bellinger and Nimmo are offensively and I don't see Cody putting up as good numbers in Citi Field.

Then I heard they are shopping Senga, instead of signing Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez to compliment Senga they are looking to move on all together. Again I think both Framber and Ranger are probably a little better than Senga but if you sign one of them and keep Senga he becomes your # 2 which he is much better suited for.

I believe last year was more of a fluke for Devin Williams than the new norm, but would rather have Diaz, especially since William's problem might have been that he just can't handle the New York limelight. The Mets are now going with Williams as closer unless they resign Diaz and yes it probably closes the door on Diaz unless they want to invest over $100 million on two back end of the bullpen guys.

Just curious what you think of these moves. Do you feel the Mets will be stronger in the OF, Starting and Relief pitching in 2026?

Abner asks:

As a NY Mets fan I would love to see a late innings duo of Edwin Díaz & Devin Williams. But knowing how does David Stearns operate, how realistic is the Mets signing Díaz with Williams already in the fold? Will they look for cheaper options getting a guy like Tyler Rogers and/or Emilio Pagán to be the setup man while Williams is the closer? If they decide to invest heavily in Williams and Díaz, does that mean that they will not invest in an ace for the starting rotation this offseason? Thanks in advance.

On the Nimmo/Semien trade, I agree with Ed's friend.  So far, we've seen a portion of the Mets' offseason puzzle.  It's not close to being complete.

At age 33, Nimmo projects as roughly a 2.5 WAR player next year.  It's true that the free agent market is light on outfielders who are capable of that, beyond Tucker and Bellinger.  But it's also true that 34 MLB outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR this year, including several few saw coming.  And that doesn't account for platoons that combined for 2.5 WAR-type value.

There's also collapse risk with the 33-year-old Nimmo, who is under contract through 2030.  Let's take a quick look at the last five years and see how many 33-year-old outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR:

• 2025: 2 (Aaron Judge at 33, George Springer at 35)
• 2024: 0
• 2023: 1 (Kevin Kiermaier at 33)
• 2022: 2 (Starling Marte and Mark Canha at 33 - both Mets!)
• 2021: 2 (AJ Pollock at 33, Darin Ruf at 34)

Nimmo's track record is very good, and a projection system is not going to project him to fall off a cliff after a 3-WAR season.  But outfield is a young man's game, and you can see how rare good seasons are at 33+.  With Nimmo, this could be a case of the old adage about trading a player a year too early rather than a year too late.  So I don't mind subtracting a player who probably won't age well, saving some money long-term and bringing in a second baseman with strong defense.  That's not to say Semien doesn't have his own collapse risk at 35, but his speed and defense are holding strong.

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This week's mailbag gets into the Grayson Rodriguez-Taylor Ward trade, the four accepted qualifying offers, the trade value of Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, and much more.

Nick asks:

Hi, what is Mike Elias thinking selling low on Grayson? Ward is a good, not great, hitter, and Rodriguez's ceiling is an ace. You guys have been calling for a Singer-Ward swap and I feel like 4 years of Rodriguez, even with his injuries, would have way more value than one year of Singer.

Zach asks:

For real, what's with trading Grayson Rodriguez?!?

In making this trade, Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias made a big bet against Rodriguez.

When the Orioles drafted Rodriguez 11th overall out of high school in 2018, the club was a few months away from replacing Dan Duquette with Elias as the head of baseball operations.  So Elias wasn't involved with that pick, but he is intimately familiar with Rodriguez's career and health history.

Once one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, Rodriguez's injuries began with a 2022 Grade 2 lat strain that cost him three months and pushed back his expected Major League debut.  He was healthy in 2023, had some success in the Majors, and totaled 165 innings - the only time in his career he's topped 117 frames.

Rodriguez missed 19 days with shoulder inflammation in May 2024, and then saw his season end that year on July 31st due to what was initially called a mild lat strain.  No one could've guessed that quality start against the Blue Jays would close the book on Rodriguez's Orioles career before his 25th birthday.

The big righty supposedly entered 2025 without restrictions, and claimed he wasn't hurt when his velocity was down in spring training.  But in March he was diagnosed with elbow inflammation, compounded in April by another "mild lat strain."  It was initially thought Rodriguez would return in the second half, but he experienced elbow discomfort while rehabbing and was shut down.  After multiple opinions were gathered, Rodriguez's 2025 season ended with right elbow debridement surgery on August 11th.

As Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun reported, Elias described Rodriguez's health this way at the end of September: "There’s nothing medically to suggest that he won’t be ready, and he’s very determined and not happy about what happened last year."  Elias expressed some caution but ultimately said, "I am bullish on the situation."  The procedure involved removing bone chips from Rodriguez's elbow.

Rodriguez spoke to reporters yesterday.  Here's an excerpt from Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register:

"Rodriguez said he is “absolutely” confident that he can pitch a full season this year. He said the bone spurs had been an issue for “three or four years,” and he believes that they led to the lat injuries. “Just being able to get those out of there, my arm feels great right now throwing,” Rodriguez said. “There’s really no question for me to be ready for spring training.”"

I'm searching for an explanation why the pitching-needy Orioles would trade a pre-arbitration mid-rotation type starter with 238 2/3 pretty good big league innings to his name and four years of team control remaining for one year of what looks like, at best, a 2.5 WAR outfielder.

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This week's mailbag gets into Orioles starting pitcher targets, whether the Tigers have championship core pieces beyond Tarik Skubal, many hypothetical trade scenarios, and much more.

Tim asks:

I appreciate all the work you put into the Top 50 Free Agent list, as well as the Top 40 Trade Candidates list. My question is: do you really expect the Orioles to pursue any top of the rotation pitchers? I have a hard time believing Mike Elias will pursue such pitchers via Free Agency, as evidenced by his risk-averse history. Please calm my fears that we'll have a repeat of last offseason's lackluster moves.

Ben asks:

After their tepid foray into the starting pitching market last year (Sugano, Morton, Gibson) yielded less than stellar results, do you see Baltimore adjusting their approach on the starting pitching market by targeting more high-end arms? If so, do you think a trade or free agent signing is more likely?

These questions work well together, because we're trying to guess whether Elias will repeat his over-cautious approach to the rotation, or learn from it.

The Orioles were in on all the big names last offseason, but apparently didn't like the prices on any of them.  By January 3rd, the Orioles had committed to Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton.  The only good starting pitcher remaining on the market at that point was Nick Pivetta.

Part of Elias' folly was reliance on Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin.  Injuries have pretty much been constant throughout Rodriguez's big league career.  Eflin had a run of good health from 2023-24, but he was also dealing with chronic knee and back pain.  While he'd pitched really well for the Orioles in nine regular season starts in '24, his success was mostly about strike-throwing.

I've written before in this space that holding on to a well-regarded prospect who ultimately does not pan out is just as bad as trading one who does.  Elias is not exactly going to get fired for holding on to Heston Kjerstad or Coby Mayo last winter, but you have to wonder whether Garrett Crochet or Jesus Luzardo could've become Orioles.  The Orioles gave up Joey Ortiz and DL Hall to get Corbin Burnes, but didn't take a similar chance last winter.

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MLBTR's annual Top 50 Free Agents list comes out Thursday evening!  We'll also be launching our free agent prediction contest at that time.

This week's subscriber mailbag covers possible Freddy Peralta and Sonny Gray trades, how the 2026-27 lockout might affect free agency this winter, where Bo Bichette will sign if not Toronto, the chances the Dodgers land Kyle Tucker, and how the Cubs will approach the loss of Tucker as well as a rotation upgrade.

Morris asks:

What would a realistic trade with Milwaukee for Freddy Peralta look like for the Braves? While I would love to see Cease in a Braves' uni, I think he may get a much better deal elsewhere with Atlanta's seeming insistence on being "logical" with every free agent (cue Friedman's famous quote). Milwaukee has a penchant for really getting something extra out of pitchers, and Peralta is a finished product who will be too expensive for them to keep much longer. Would something like Bryce Elder (Milwaukee could absolutely figure out how to make him better), a top-15 pitching prospect, and a top-30 position-player-prospect get the deal done?

At one point in our free agent deliberations, we had Dylan Cease signing a three-year, $93MM deal with two opt-outs.  We were having a bit of a hard time giving Cease the long-term contract he's likely seeking, mostly because of his 4.55 ERA.  For the most part, we've gotten past those reservations and expect Cease to sign for perhaps seven years, as Aaron Nola did coming off a 4.46 regular season mark.

It should be noted that the Braves were competitive in the bidding for Nola, so we can't completely rule out Alex Anthopoulos going long for the Georgia-native Cease.  But it's also true that in eight years atop the Braves' front office, Anthopoulos' biggest free agent deal in both years and dollars was Marcell Ozuna's four-year, $65MM pact in February 2021.  I agree that Cease feels unlikely in Atlanta.

On September 30th, Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote, "The Braves could use another reliable veteran — someone in the mold of Charlie Morton as a pitcher who can provide steadiness, leadership and consistent innings."  The thinking is that with Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Spencer Strider locked in, the Braves need reliability more than they need a front of the rotation guy.  In my Top 50 picks, I've got the Braves signing Chris Bassitt.  I also find the idea of a paid-down Sonny Gray acquisition to be plausible.

But there's nothing that precludes Anthopoulos from thinking bigger and renting Peralta for a year, regardless of whether they can eventually extend him.

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This week's mailbag gets into Pete Alonso alternatives for the Mets, why many assume the Tigers won't sign Tarik Skubal, whether the Nationals will try to make a leap forward in 2026, and more.

Steve asks:

How long will the Mets give Boras and Pete Alonso to decide if they want to re-sign before shifting their focus to other first basemen, whether it be through a trade or signing?

The Mets have to make a series of decisions:

• Do they want Alonso at all?  The answer would have to be yes, even accounting for being locked into some poor defense in 2026 at either first base or right field, since Alonso and Juan Soto can't both DH.  And perhaps Soto can improve his defense.
• If yes, what's the maximum term?  Last winter, the Mets seemed to prefer three years, but there was probably an amount/opt-out combo where they would've done four years.  If David Stearns tells Boras, "There is no scenario where the Mets sign Pete for four-plus years," then perhaps both parties can have an early answer as to whether the fit is viable.
• If Alonso and the Mets are both willing to do a three or four-year deal, where do opt-outs fit in?  These are obviously not great for the team, because if Alonso's production tanks in the course of the deal, they're stuck with him.

On October 1st, I wrote that Alonso will be seeking at least five years, and therefore the Mets should just let him walk.  I still feel that way, but if there are three or four-year scenarios, the Mets should at least entertain those early on.

On October 14th, I ran through the four different 30+ home run first basemen Stearns found in his seven-year tenure with the Brewers.  But let's look at that differently and see where the Brewers ranked in first baseman WAR while Stearns was in charge:

• 2016: 10th
• 2017: 6th
• 2018: 7th
• 2019: 14th
• 2020: 14th
• 2021: 27th
• 2022: 18th

Now consider that with Alonso as the Mets' first baseman under Stearns, the team ranked 12th in 2024 and 7th this year.

The difference is that the Mets expect more certainty than the Brewers, because as Brewers GM Stearns was not given a budget that allowed for signing a $30MM-ish first baseman.

So while it's easy to say that Stearns should just go find the next Jesus Aguilar, he can't (or perhaps shouldn't) really run the risk of something like 2021, where the Brewers had some of the worst first base production in the game with Daniel Vogelbach, Keston Hiura, and Rowdy Tellez.

What are the Alonso alternatives?

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