Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag News & Rumors

This week's mailbag gets into the Red Sox and their offense, Masataka Yoshida's trade value, how far Jacob deGrom is from Hall of Fame consideration, the Brewers and Christian Yelich's contract, the Phillies' and Braves' rotations, and how revenue sharing money is spent.  Now that Bruce Meyer has been named executive director of the MLBPA, I've added thoughts on that news at the bottom of this article.

Christopher asks:

Do the Red Sox have enough offense to make the playoffs?

David asks:

It's two weeks before the trade deadline and the Red Sox are in contention but it's painfully obvious they didn't solve their problem with needing a power hitter. I appreciate it's only February but look into your crystal ball. Who are their likely targets?

Dave asks:

Given the fact Luis Arraez recently signed for $12M year contract, do you still feel there is no value for some team picking up Yoshida? Both have bad marks defensively and Arraez has a higher batting average but Yoshida provides more power, so that may balance out. Worse case someone should take Yoshida for at least $8M.

Lloyd asks:

Boston has an OF glut and Duran is mentioned as the one to most likely be traded. Detroit has an INF glut and Torres is tradeable after June 15. Is there a match here, assuming both players are healthy and productive? Would Boston move Duran for Anderson or Lee, Tiger Top-10 prospects who rank in the lower end of the top 110 MLB prospects? Detroit could use an OF bat for the big push. Assuming salary/contract considerations offer no stumbling block, is this something that would work?

The Red Sox continue to have room for a major addition at second or third base, given that recent addition Caleb Durbin can play either spot.  Such a pickup would bump Durbin or Marcelo Mayer to the bench, which already has a pair of infielders in Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Romy Gonzalez.  (Or Mayer could return to Triple-A, where he's only played 43 games).

It's worth keeping in mind that the most accurate projection system, The Bat X, has Durbin posting an 85 wRC+ this year, Mayer at 86, and Kiner-Falefa at 69.  Gonzalez is at 102, but he's done almost all his damage against left-handed pitching.  Even veteran shortstop Trevor Story is only at 97 in that projection system.  Throw in catcher Carlos Narvaez at 83 and Ceddanne Rafaela at 88, and there's a pretty good chance five of nine Red Sox lineup spots feature subpar offense.

Certainly, there is room for a Mayer breakout or a Kristian Campbell bounceback (Campbell is outfield-focused).  Durbin and Narvaez could sustain more of last year's success.  Story may hit like he did from June onward last year.  Rafaela flashed brilliance at the plate for a couple months.

But that's quite a few "ifs," and the club is reliant on good health from 33-34-year-olds Story and Willson Contreras.

Offense isn't everything, which is why FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a healthy 60.1 shot at the playoffs this year.  The club projects to get a lot of value out of its outfield and DH spots; they're fifth in baseball in total WAR for those four spots.  The opposite is true of Boston's infield, which rates 26th.  And that does account for the club's likely improved infield defense.

The Red Sox rank first in all of baseball for projected starting pitcher WAR.  About 72% of that value is coming from the trio at the top: Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez.  While the Sox do have a wealth of solid depth options behind them, it's fair to say a major injury to Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Roman Anthony, or Rafaela could knock them out of the playoff picture.  I'm sure you could say that about the top five players of any team, but three of these are pitchers.  Crochet and Suarez have lengthy injury histories, and Gray is 36.

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This week's mailbag gets into the Orioles' and Braves' rotations, whether Nick Castellanos could help the Tigers, and what the Brewers will do at third base after trading Caleb Durbin.  It concludes with a bunch of my half-baked "hot takes" for your amusement.  I'd love to see yours in the comments.

Michael asks:

Why couldn't the Orioles have signed Ranger Suarez? Seems like they whiffed on this deal.

I don't know that it needed to be Suarez specifically, but Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias has thus far failed to add a front of the rotation starting pitcher.  Shane Baz is probably good for 2 WAR and still has breakout potential.  But (likely) better pitchers such as Suarez, Dylan Cease, Sonny Gray, Framber Valdez, Michael King, MacKenzie Gore, and Freddy Peralta were available this winter and the Orioles didn't add any of them.

Elias had this to say in a recent press conference: "I think we’ve put together a really strong rotation as it stands right now. We’ll continue to look externally, if we can bolster this group in one way, shape or form. … But I think that this rotation looks good."

Elias could still boost the team by one or even two wins by signing Zac Gallen, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today did name the Orioles as one of four suitors.  Still, any of the above would've been better.  Elias noted that "late signings can be tricky," implying that his interest in adding a notable free agent starter might diminish by (in my estimation) the end of the month.

FanGraphs projects the Orioles' rotation to be the 17th-best in MLB.  That includes 3.1 WAR from Kyle Bradish in 148 innings.  I think Bradish is good for more than that, though I'm also not confident Zach Eflin can reach his 146 inning projection, so maybe it's a wash.  Eflin underwent lumbar microdiscectomy surgery last August and aims to be ready for Opening Day.

FanGraphs' projections currently calls for five different Orioles pitchers to reach 146 innings.  Is there any chance of that happening?

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This week's mailbag gets into the Dodgers' rotation, the Phillies' outfield, my favorite and least favorite moves of the offseason, the Twins' and Tigers' approaches, the Astros' infield logjam, and the Cardinals' return for Brendan Donovan.

Drew asks:

Is there a world where the Dodgers get involved on another SP? Dodgers are clearly planning to "load manage" the starters in addition to running the 6 man and Friedman has publicly stated that in a perfect world he is a seller at the deadline (à la Dustin may last year). Why not sign Giolito, Bassitt, or even Gallen to an above-market 1 year salary and try to flip them at the deadline (I'm assuming that the QO for Gallen is slightly mitigated because of the prior penalties for Diaz and Tucker).

I'm excited to see Stone and Ryan but it's still not clear what they will look like post injuries. This would theoretically be another way to leverage the cash on hand advantage and keep the farm restocked given the current draft pick penalties they have to deal with.

Greg asks:

How in the world will the Dodgers manage to limit the innings of their top starters this season? Will a 6-man rotation be enough?

Let's take a look at the Dodgers' rotation:

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto: The 27-year-old made a total of 24 starts as a rookie in 2024, tallying 112 2/3 innings.  He missed nearly three months due to triceps and shoulder injuries.  Not only did Yamamoto avoid the IL in 2025, he pitched 173 2/3 regular season innings over 30 starts and finished third in the NL Cy Young voting.  Then he tacked on another 37 1/3 postseason innings over five starts, capped by a Game 7 no-rest 34-pitch relief outing.  That epic performance won him World Series MVP.  Yamamoto jumped 98 1/3 innings last year and is slated to pitch in the World Baseball Classic.  But it's worth noting that in the regular season, 18 of Yamamoto's starts were on five days rest and the other 12 were on six or more.  That final Game 7 relief performance was his only postseason outing with fewer than five days rest.
• Blake Snell: Snell, 33, tossed just 61 1/3 regular season innings last year over 11 starts due to a four-month bout with left shoulder inflammation.  He was Dominant Snell upon his return and added 34 postseason innings to bring his total to 109 (including minor league rehab time).  Last week, Jack Harris of the California Post wrote, "Snell and the team decided to have the 33-year-old slow-play his winter throwing program this offseason. The plan, Snell said, is to still be ready for Opening Day in late March. But at this point, that is not seen as a certainty within the organization."  I get the "as long as he's ready for the postseason" outlook here, but Snell has a checkered injury and may start the season on the IL.
• Tyler Glasnow: Glasnow, 32, is another "good when he's available" type.  He managed 90 1/3 regular season innings over 18 starts, pitched another 8 2/3 on minor league rehab, and then added 21 1/3 in the postseason to reach 120 1/3 last year.  When the Dodgers traded for Glasnow in December 2023, I explored his injury history in an email-only subscriber article.  The upshot was that Glasnow suffered a forearm strain in 2019, avoided surgery, and then "pitched 86 total innings in 2020, a third of them in the high-stress playoff environment. His innings total ranked fourth in baseball that year."  He unsurprisingly went down for Tommy John the following year, and also had to recover from a flexor strain and knee surgery - during the lockout when he couldn't communicate with the Rays medical staff.  He returned from that in 14 months nonetheless.  Glasnow was not treated conservatively by the Rays, in my opinion.  To be fair, I thought he'd hold up better with the Dodgers, but his 2024 season ended on August 11th due to elbow tendinitis and he lost 73 days in 2025 mostly due to shoulder inflammation.  It'd be tough to count on even 140 total innings for Glasnow.
• I don't need to explain Shohei Ohtani to you.  He was initially handled carefully on the mound post-Tommy John in '25, tallying 47 regular season innings as a sort of MLB rehab and another 20 1/3 in the postseason.  Ohtani reached 140 innings in each of the 2014-16 seasons in Japan and topped out at 166 in MLB in 2022.  He won't be pitching in the WBC.  I'd be reluctant to pencil him in for more than 140 innings total this year, but it's never wise to bet against Ohtani.
• I haven't surveyed every team, but Emmet Sheehan is probably the best "fifth starter" in baseball.  The 26-year-old had Tommy John surgery in May 2024 and returned in a speedy 13 months.  His August and September were especially dominant last year.  Sheehan was used in relief in the postseason and mostly struggled.  He reached 100 1/3 total innings last year, his second-highest total after 2023's 127 frames.  Sheehan is yet another Dodgers starter you wouldn't want to count on for more than 140 innings.
• Roki Sasaki projects to have the sixth spot after a rocky MLB debut.  He went on the IL in mid-May with a shoulder impingement, missed more than four months, and returned as a reliever.  Even 100 innings from Sasaki would be a win, and he hasn't yet shown he can be an effective MLB starter.

Dodgers starters ranked third-lowest in MLB with 783 1/3 regular season innings last year.  Clearly that isn't a problem for them; set 800 as the goal and assume you'll need six different guys who can manage 50+ innings in relief.  Is the current group set up to reach 800 innings, and is another addition worth pursuing?

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This week's mailbag gets into the Giants' rotation, why Framber Valdez remains unsigned, a thorough look at where Eugenio Suarez could land, the Tigers and Nationals, and more collective bargaining thoughts.

Paul asks:

Who makes sense for the Giants to add to their rotation?

Daryn asks:

Why is Framber Valdez not signed yet? He is the best starting pitcher in the market. Is it his age and asking for a lot of years, or it is the clubhouse thing we hear about?

At present, the Giants' rotation looks like this:

• Logan Webb
• Robbie Ray
• Tyler Mahle
• Adrian Houser
• Landen Roupp

Like every team, they'll need reinforcements for injuries.  Ray is 34 and 2025 was his first full season in three years.  Houser is 33 and tossed a career-high 164 1/3 innings last year (Triple-A included).  Roupp missed 24 days with elbow inflammation and then saw his season end in August with a deep bone bruise to his knee.  Mahle missed over three months with shoulder soreness.

On the Mahle conference call, Giants GM Zack Minasian said, "I don’t know if we’re ever done. I think we’re very comfortable with the five that we have and then the bundle of arms behind them. Our depth is in a much better spot than it was at the beginning of the offseason, so we’re happy with where we’re at. We’ll keep working at it, but we do think this is a solid five-man rotation going into the spring."  That quote comes via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.

That bundle behind the starting five may include Hayden Birdsong, Kai-Wei Teng, Carson Seymour, Blade Tidwell, and Carson Whisenhunt, all of whom made big league starts last year.  Trevor McDonald and Keaton Winn are options as well.

The Giants are paying $21MM in AAV for Houser and Mahle this year, but neither can be counted on for a 2-WAR season.  I don't know that Zac Gallen would be enough of an improvement over the Giants' existing back-end options, but slotting Framber Valdez in behind Webb would be huge.  The Giants have a good team at present, but Valdez could add a crucial three wins over whoever he replaces.

Back in November, Giants owner Greg Johnson expressed reluctance to sign a pitcher to a long-term deal.  Just before that, MLBTR predicted a five-year deal for the 32-year-old Valdez.  Ranger Suarez signed a five-year deal two weeks ago, so it is possible to get that type of contract in January.  That said, we haven't seen a free agent starter get five years on January 28th or later since Yu Darvish in 2018.  As we get closer to pitchers and catchers reporting, the chance of Valdez getting a true five-year deal like Suarez decrease.

There are several factors that likely contribute to Valdez being unsigned on January 28th:

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This week's mailbag gets into Nico Hoerner trade possibilities, whether top remaining free agents will go short or long-term, what's next for the Red Sox after Alex Bregman signed with the Cubs, where free agents such as Lucas Giolito and Zac Gallen might land, and much more.

Marc asks:

Well, Tom Ricketts proved me wrong. I never thought he’d pony up for a high dollar FA again. So, what now? I see all the rumors about Nico Hoerner but I think the Edward Cabrera trade and Alex Bregman signing are “all in” moves and moving Hoerner would weaken them (I think). Is there another move you think they could/ should still make?

I was surprised as well.  I didn't think the Cubs would substantially improve their offer to Bregman from a year prior.  But while Bregman is a year older, he was also free of the qualifying offer this time around.  The signing is also a reminder that each offseason is its own beast with unique variables.  What might have changed for the Cubs in 2025?  They saw increased regular season attendance, hosted five playoff games at Wrigley, and got a better feel for what Matt Shaw can do in the Majors.  They may have also grown more enamored of Bregman, who seemed to be adored by Boston's young players.

I would not make a blanket statement that the Cubs should not trade Hoerner this winter - it always depends on the return.  But certainly the Cubs should not trade Hoerner if it makes them worse in 2026.

I haven't found a Cubs fan online who wants to trade Hoerner.  But I will play devil's advocate for a minute.

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This week's Front Office mailbag gets into the Dodgers adding a top free agent, Boston's offer to Alex Bregman as well as the Triston Casas situation, which bats the Reds could add, what's next for the Marlins and Mets, and much more.

William asks:

Any substance to the rumor that Bichette is signing with the Dodgers? How would that affect their tax? And who might they trade away?

Ron asks:

The Dodgers seem set for 2026 and beyond. They have young starting pitchers coming along and younger outfielders on the way. Left field and third base are the positions that might need tweaking this year or next. Could they grab the 2 best F.A.'s still available?

On January 1st, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote that the Dodgers (and Yankees and Cubs) "checked on" Bichette.  That's all Heyman gave us in that article - no further context.  Two days later in a tweet, Heyman added the Phillies to the list of teams that "have interest," beyond the well-known Blue Jays and Red Sox.

With all due respect to Heyman, that Dodgers-Bichette connection is pretty thin.  It'd almost be irresponsible for a big market team not to "check on" a quality player like Bichette as his free agency drags into the new year, especially a club with room for improvement in the infield.  We have no idea if anything more than due diligence has occurred between Bichette's camp and some of these clubs.

I hope we get better info, but GMs cannot shoot down free agent interest publicly, so if some of this is overstated we might not learn until after Bichette signs.

In late November, MLBTR's Anthony Franco included the Dodgers as a "plausible/on-paper dark horse" for Bichette, writing:

"There hasn’t been much in the way of Dodgers/Bichette smoke so far. This would feel a bit like overkill, but the Dodgers don’t have anyone locked in at second base. Their farm system is loaded with outfield talent but not as strong in the middle infield aside from Alex Freeland. Locking Bichette in at second would require them to play Tommy Edman mostly in center field coming off ankle surgery."

On Monday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote, "Dodgers people like to say that Andrew Friedman’s preferred method of operation is 'hanging around the backboard.' If a player’s price in trade or free agency drops, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations will attempt to grab him on the rebound and dunk on the industry yet again."

Friedman has had the Dodgers' top front office job for more than 11 years now, so we should have evidence of him "hanging around the backboard" and snatching up some top free agents whose market disappointed.  Below is what I found, which should help us determine whether the Dodgers might swoop in on Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette:

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This week's mailbag gets into whether Kyle Tucker will sign a shorter-term deal, options for the Rays at catcher, the trade value of controllable Mariners starters, the Tigers' offseason thus far, Dustin May's potential impact with the Cardinals, and much more.

Dave asks:

At this point do you think Kyle Tucker will take a high AAV deal — example: 5 years $250 million with opt outs after years 2 and 4?

I'm writing this on December 17th, and I don't think we're at that point with Tucker.  It's true that long-term free agent deals usually happen in December.  The last free agent deal of 8+ years that didn't happen in December was Bryce Harper in March 2019, with his 13-year deal coming a few weeks after Manny Machado's ten-year pact.

Eric Hosmer got an eight-year deal in February 2018, and Prince Fielder signed for nine years in January 2012.

That's about it, though, so if we get to the new year without a Tucker deal, the odds start shifting toward a shorter term.

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This week's mailbag gets into the Mets' offseason thus far, Craig Breslow's tenure atop Boston's front office, the Munetaka Murakami situation, how an expansion draft works, the Cubs' anti-deferral policy, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s trade value, and much more.

Ed asks:

I'm finding it hard to understand the Mets thinking. I'm scratching my head about the Marcus Semien/ Brandon Nimmo trade. I asked my friend who's a big Mets fan (his last name is Metz) what he thought and he responded that it depends on what outfielder they replace Nimmo with. I told him that unless they break the bank on Kyle Tucker its not going to be a clear upgrade. I'd say Cody Bellinger is an slight upgrade but after looking at their numbers its amazing how similar Bellinger and Nimmo are offensively and I don't see Cody putting up as good numbers in Citi Field.

Then I heard they are shopping Senga, instead of signing Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez to compliment Senga they are looking to move on all together. Again I think both Framber and Ranger are probably a little better than Senga but if you sign one of them and keep Senga he becomes your # 2 which he is much better suited for.

I believe last year was more of a fluke for Devin Williams than the new norm, but would rather have Diaz, especially since William's problem might have been that he just can't handle the New York limelight. The Mets are now going with Williams as closer unless they resign Diaz and yes it probably closes the door on Diaz unless they want to invest over $100 million on two back end of the bullpen guys.

Just curious what you think of these moves. Do you feel the Mets will be stronger in the OF, Starting and Relief pitching in 2026?

Abner asks:

As a NY Mets fan I would love to see a late innings duo of Edwin Díaz & Devin Williams. But knowing how does David Stearns operate, how realistic is the Mets signing Díaz with Williams already in the fold? Will they look for cheaper options getting a guy like Tyler Rogers and/or Emilio Pagán to be the setup man while Williams is the closer? If they decide to invest heavily in Williams and Díaz, does that mean that they will not invest in an ace for the starting rotation this offseason? Thanks in advance.

On the Nimmo/Semien trade, I agree with Ed's friend.  So far, we've seen a portion of the Mets' offseason puzzle.  It's not close to being complete.

At age 33, Nimmo projects as roughly a 2.5 WAR player next year.  It's true that the free agent market is light on outfielders who are capable of that, beyond Tucker and Bellinger.  But it's also true that 34 MLB outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR this year, including several few saw coming.  And that doesn't account for platoons that combined for 2.5 WAR-type value.

There's also collapse risk with the 33-year-old Nimmo, who is under contract through 2030.  Let's take a quick look at the last five years and see how many 33-year-old outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR:

• 2025: 2 (Aaron Judge at 33, George Springer at 35)
• 2024: 0
• 2023: 1 (Kevin Kiermaier at 33)
• 2022: 2 (Starling Marte and Mark Canha at 33 - both Mets!)
• 2021: 2 (AJ Pollock at 33, Darin Ruf at 34)

Nimmo's track record is very good, and a projection system is not going to project him to fall off a cliff after a 3-WAR season.  But outfield is a young man's game, and you can see how rare good seasons are at 33+.  With Nimmo, this could be a case of the old adage about trading a player a year too early rather than a year too late.  So I don't mind subtracting a player who probably won't age well, saving some money long-term and bringing in a second baseman with strong defense.  That's not to say Semien doesn't have his own collapse risk at 35, but his speed and defense are holding strong.

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This week's mailbag gets into the Grayson Rodriguez-Taylor Ward trade, the four accepted qualifying offers, the trade value of Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, and much more.

Nick asks:

Hi, what is Mike Elias thinking selling low on Grayson? Ward is a good, not great, hitter, and Rodriguez's ceiling is an ace. You guys have been calling for a Singer-Ward swap and I feel like 4 years of Rodriguez, even with his injuries, would have way more value than one year of Singer.

Zach asks:

For real, what's with trading Grayson Rodriguez?!?

In making this trade, Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias made a big bet against Rodriguez.

When the Orioles drafted Rodriguez 11th overall out of high school in 2018, the club was a few months away from replacing Dan Duquette with Elias as the head of baseball operations.  So Elias wasn't involved with that pick, but he is intimately familiar with Rodriguez's career and health history.

Once one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, Rodriguez's injuries began with a 2022 Grade 2 lat strain that cost him three months and pushed back his expected Major League debut.  He was healthy in 2023, had some success in the Majors, and totaled 165 innings - the only time in his career he's topped 117 frames.

Rodriguez missed 19 days with shoulder inflammation in May 2024, and then saw his season end that year on July 31st due to what was initially called a mild lat strain.  No one could've guessed that quality start against the Blue Jays would close the book on Rodriguez's Orioles career before his 25th birthday.

The big righty supposedly entered 2025 without restrictions, and claimed he wasn't hurt when his velocity was down in spring training.  But in March he was diagnosed with elbow inflammation, compounded in April by another "mild lat strain."  It was initially thought Rodriguez would return in the second half, but he experienced elbow discomfort while rehabbing and was shut down.  After multiple opinions were gathered, Rodriguez's 2025 season ended with right elbow debridement surgery on August 11th.

As Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun reported, Elias described Rodriguez's health this way at the end of September: "There’s nothing medically to suggest that he won’t be ready, and he’s very determined and not happy about what happened last year."  Elias expressed some caution but ultimately said, "I am bullish on the situation."  The procedure involved removing bone chips from Rodriguez's elbow.

Rodriguez spoke to reporters yesterday.  Here's an excerpt from Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register:

"Rodriguez said he is “absolutely” confident that he can pitch a full season this year. He said the bone spurs had been an issue for “three or four years,” and he believes that they led to the lat injuries. “Just being able to get those out of there, my arm feels great right now throwing,” Rodriguez said. “There’s really no question for me to be ready for spring training.”"

I'm searching for an explanation why the pitching-needy Orioles would trade a pre-arbitration mid-rotation type starter with 238 2/3 pretty good big league innings to his name and four years of team control remaining for one year of what looks like, at best, a 2.5 WAR outfielder.

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