Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag

This week's mailbag gets into the Reds' offense, whether Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, and Jorge Polanco will stay with their respective clubs, trade targets for the Braves' rotation, and whether the Rangers could trade Jacob deGrom.

Bill asks:

What can the Cincinnati Reds possibly do to fix the mess that is their lineup? They need at least one big bat and probably do not have the money to accomplish that.

The Reds' offense ranked eighth in the NL with 4.42 runs scored per game.  Let's examine where the lineup stands after the Reds were eliminated by the Dodgers in the Wild Card round.

• C: Jose Trevino and Tyler Stephenson handled catching duties.
• 1B: Spencer Steer was the regular this year, but rookie Sal Stewart began taking starts after coming up in September.
• 2B: Matt McLain was the typical choice, with Gavin Lux starting occasionally.
• SS: Elly De La Cruz has the full-time job.
• 3B: Ke'Bryan Hayes took most starts, with a few going to Stewart.  Before Hayes was acquired, Santiago Espinal logged innings here.
• LF: Austin Hays was the top choice, followed by Lux and Will Benson.
• CF: TJ Friedl has the full-time job.
• RF: Noelvi Marte took over the starting job.  Jake Fraley spent time here before getting injured, and Benson was also in the mix.
• DH: Of late, it was a Lux/Miguel Andujar time share.  Hays also picked up a good number of ABs here.

No one on the Reds had a stellar offensive season.  Almost every regular fell between a 97 wRC+ and a 109 mark, with 100 being league average.  Where can improvements be found?

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This week's mailbag gets into offseason possibilities for the Cubs and Mets and also includes questions on the Angels, Guardians, and A's.

Walter asks:

With the Cubs probably not getting serious on Tucker, how much money will the Cubs have to spend and what are the likely targets to hopefully build a champion next year? Starting pitching? Bullpen?

Colin asks:

How should the Cubs replace Kyle Tucker? It feels like keeping it internal with a combo of Seiya and Caissie and Alcantara in RF and the first two and Ballesteros at DH won't make up for Tucker's production. Curious if there are any good targets out there for them to pursue.

Kelly asks:

The Cubs have several players going into next season in their final year. What do you predict will happen with Boyd, Suzuki, Happ and Hoerner? I know some of it is predicated on Tucker, but which are the priorities in your opinion to extend or trade this off-season? Where do Ballesteros, Amaya, Cassie and Long factor into their decision?

Nick asks:

Tucker leaves, Caissie in right, and sign Bregman. Can the Cubs package Happ and Shaw together for a controllable starter? Anybody come to mind?

It seems odd to get into the Cubs' offseason as they host the Padres in the Wild Card Series, but I received many of these questions and I aim to please with this mailbag.

The Cubs will easily come in below the $241MM competitive balance tax this year, after going a little bit over in 2024.  They were also under the CBT from 2021-23.

Regular season attendance was up 3.7% this year, plus at least a few playoff games are taking place at Wrigley Field.  In theory, the Cubs could get into the range of the $244MM threshold, if president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer sees reasonable ways to spend that money.  So what do the 2026 commitments look like?

• Dansby Swanson - $25.3MM
• Ian Happ - $20.3MM
• Seiya Suzuki - $17MM
• Jameson Taillon - $17MM
• Matthew Boyd - $14.5MM
• Nico Hoerner - $11.7MM
• Carson Kelly - $5.75MM

I'll also make a few option assumptions:

• Cubs will pick up Andrew Kittredge's $9MM club option
• Cubs will pick up Colin Rea's $6MM club option
• Cubs will pick up Shota Imanaga's three-year, $57MM club option.  I'm not entirely sure on the CBT hit in this case, but $19MM should be close enough for our purposes.

There is a case to be made for declining Imanaga's three-year option, but we can get into that another time.

I dared to enter Matt Swartz's top-secret arbitration lab, in the basement of the MLB Trade Rumors building, to beg for some early numbers.  But the Cubs' class is only Justin Steele, Javier Assad, Reese McGuire, and Eli Morgan.  We can just worry about Steele and Assad, who have respective projections of $6.55MM and $1.9MM.

These 12 players, plus other stuff such as player benefits, brings the team's estimated CBT payroll to $176MM.  If these estimates are generally correct, the Cubs will enter the 2026-27 offseason about $68MM shy of the $244MM CBT threshold.  There's space to spend some serious money this winter!

Assessing potential Cubs targets will require a team breakdown!

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This week's mailbag gets into the impending free agencies of Josh Naylor, Zach Eflin, Kyle Tucker, Michael King, and J.T. Realmuto, among other topics.

Stephen asks:

Josh Naylor in a mariners uniform next year would be wonderful. What would it take to make it happen?

This mailbag presents several opportunities to exercise my contract prediction muscles in advance of the MLBTR team collaborating on our Top 50 Free Agents list throughout October.  So let's try to put a number on Naylor.

Naylor will be 29 next year, and not until June, so you get a good amount of age 28 as well.  He's been even better in Seattle than Arizona, and this year's 126 wRC+ seems representative of his abilities for the next few years.

Somehow, Naylor has stolen 28 bags this year in 30 tries despite second percentile sprint speed.  As I have said in this space, I love that as a fellow slow runner, but I don't think I'd bake it into his free agent valuation.  Defensively, Naylor seems to rate as an acceptable first baseman.  Overall, he's a guy you can pencil in for 2.5-3 WAR.  He deserves intangible credit, too, in the clubhouse and with Mariners fans.  The cherry on top: he's ineligible for a qualifying offer due to the July trade.

If you check out Darragh McDonald's podcast with Jerry Dipoto from earlier this month, they got into the difficulty of attracting free agents, particularly bats, to Seattle.  Naylor, though, feels like he sees the ball well at T-Mobile Park, called it a "super cool stadium," and called the team's fans "awesome."  In a park that suppresses offense by around 9%, Naylor is hitting .350/.398/.613 in 90 plate appearances since the trade.  So if there is a free agent position player on whom the Mariners are going to line up for more than two years, which Dipoto has yet to do with the Ms, Naylor seems like the guy.

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This week's mailbag covers the trade value of Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, and Nolan Arenado, the Orioles' need this winter, the Astros' infield logjam, Kyle Schwarber's Hall of Fame candidacy, and how the Red Sox might approach first base next year.

Sam asks:

Assuming Willson Contreras agrees to waive his NTC, what sort of return would the Cardinals receive? Same question for Sonny Gray too please. (Assuming that Arenado is not moved or that the Cardinals eat most of his contract in exchange for a PTBNL or similar from his limited list of teams)

Hugh asks:

Assuming Arenado and Gray waive NTCs, what are the chances Cardinals can move them? Would Arenado be a non-tender candidate?

It's difficult to just assume Contreras, Gray, or Arenado would waive their no-trade clauses, even for the sake or argument.  That's because those players would basically never entertain saying, "OK, I consent to a trade to any of the other 29 teams.  Go for it!"  They'd do something like what Arenado did last winter: provide a list of approved teams, and/or tell the GM you'll take it on a case-by-case basis if a deal is close.

I think these questions are more to get at what kind of trade value each player has, so let's assess that.

Contreras, 34 next May, became a full-time first baseman for the Cardinals this year.  Perhaps a new team would consider using him behind the plate here or there, especially if the automated ball-strike system is implemented, but we'll mostly consider him a first baseman/DH.

Contreras dealt with some minor injuries this year, but had avoided the IL until today.  His season has ended due to a right shoulder strain.  Contreras managed to post a solid 123 wRC+ in a career-high 563 plate appearances, good for 2.8 FanGraphs WAR in 135 games.

If we give Contreras some grace for having to adjust to his new defensive duties in April, it's worth noting that he had a 135 wRC+ since May.  This is a potential top-20 hitter in the game with plenty of red on his Statcast page who can arguably hang with the likes of Rafael Devers and Bryce Harper.  I don't think Contreras has that reputation, but that's what I see.  As a cherry on top, his first base defense appears to be average or better.

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This week's mailbag gets into potential offseason targets for the Giants and Nationals, the potential free agencies of Trent Grisham and Ha-Seong Kim, and the Mets' current six-man rotation.

Neil asks:

Giants fan here. They are killing me with this Jekyll and Hyde act on offense this year. It's the .500 team I was expecting but they need more team speed and the OF defense gives me a headache. Who should they target in free agency?

Todd asks:

I see my Giants are hanging on (barely!) in the West, but looking forward to next year, who do they need to acquire to be given an 'A' for their off-season next March? Obviously pitching is needed, I'm interested in specific names who they should be targeting. Thanks!

Let's do a Giants rundown!

• C: Having Patrick Bailey as the starter represents a choice to sacrifice offense at the position for Gold Glove defense.  That strategy can work, but you'd ideally make up for the dead spot in the lineup in some other way.
• 1B: Rafael Devers seems to be improving defensively; he's been splitting time at first base with Dominic Smith.  In August, Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote that the situation "could turn into a timeshare dependent on top prospect Bryce Eldridge’s development at the position."  Eldridge, 21 in October, has a 100 wRC+ in 260 Triple-A plate appearances.  He's still the 19th-ranked prospect in baseball, so if and when he figures out Triple-A, he's expected to share first base and DH with Devers.
• 2B: Tyler Fitzgerald, the Giants' innings leader at the position this year, was optioned to Triple-A a few weeks ago.  Since then we've mostly seen Casey Schmitt, with rookie Christian Koss mixed in.  Former top prospect Marco Luciano, at times mentioned as a potential future second baseman, has spent the entire year at Triple-A and has been playing left field.
• SS: Willy Adames is settling in with a 149 wRC+ since July.
• 3B: Matt Chapman has had a couple of IL stints for hand injuries, but he's still having a typical good year.
• LF: Heliot Ramos has hit decently with a 111 wRC+ (and no platoon splits), but he's been one of the game's worst defensive left fielders this year.  As such, he's been worth only 1.1 fWAR.  Ramos is under team control through 2029 and won't yet be arbitration eligible in 2026.
• CF: Jung Hoo Lee has been solid in his first full MLB season and has a 133 wRC+ since July.
• RF: With Mike Yastrzemski traded to Kansas City, the Giants have been giving Drew Gilbert and Luis Matos some run.  The samples are too small to really tell right now, but perhaps they could form an adequate platoon.
• DH: It's been Devers, Smith, and Wilmer Flores here.  Smith and Flores may depart as free agents, but the Giants shouldn't do anything major here given Eldridge's trajectory and Devers' defensive limitations.

The Giants' offense this year ranks ninth in the NL with 4.37 runs scored per game.  Their wRC+ is an even 100.

That's all the way up to 118 since August, third-best in the NL.  The club has been carried by veterans Devers, Lee, and Chapman in that time, with bonus contributions from Matos and Smith.  For next year, the hope is that Eldridge can come up and contribute, but the Giants can't really count on it.

Second base seems like a clear need for the Giants.  Gleyber Torres will be a free agent again, and the trade market could offer a few options such as Luis Garcia Jr.

The Giants could use a big bat in the corner outfield.  Kyle Tucker is the obvious choice.  The versatile Cody Bellinger would also fit well in San Francisco.  Adolis Garcia would be a cheaper bounceback candidate.

For Neil's outfield defense concerns, moving on from Ramos would help.  Defensive upgrades could include Bellinger, Wilyer Abreu, and Luis Robert Jr.

What's the outlook on the starting pitching side?

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This week's mailbag looks at potential Kyle Tucker suitors, the chances of the Yankees retaining Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, the Angels' history in free agency, extension ideas for the Royals and Cardinals, and what the future holds for the Twins.

Colin asks:

Where are some realistic landing spots for Kyle Tucker this offseason?

Why not just assess the viability of Tucker for all 30 teams?  I'm sure Tucker's agents at Excel Sports Management already have.

• White Sox: In their June statement, the team said that Justin Ishbia "will make capital infusions into the White Sox as a limited partner in 2025 and 2026 that will be used to pay down existing debt and support ongoing team operations."  The team's long-term books are already clean.  Could Ishbia announce his presence by signing Tucker to a contract worth perhaps more than six times the team's current record deal of $75MM? Chalk it up as highly unlikely, yet still more likely than it's been in a long time.
• Guardians: No chance.
• Tigers: The club's dalliance with Alex Bregman last winter was notable, but that still wouldn't have been a top-three free agent deal.  Tucker is highly unlikely here based on how the Tigers have operated since Mike Ilitch passed away in 2017.
• Royals: No chance.
• Twins: No chance.
• Orioles: Payroll-wise, the Orioles could manage this, but we've been saying that sort of thing for a while now.  We've only seen one offseason under David Rubenstein, and it topped out with Tyler O'Neill's $49.5MM deal, but he could theoretically surprise us.
• Red Sox: On a team with Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, and Wilyer Abreu, signing Tucker doesn't seem to make sense.  The Red Sox were in on Juan Soto last winter, and Duran or Abreu could be traded, so we won't rule it out quite yet.
• Yankees: With Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger up for free agency and Jasson Dominguez failing to assert himself, there is a reasonable case to be made here for Tucker.  There's enough payroll space to make it work as well.
• Rays: I was going to write "no chance" and move on, but Tucker is from Tampa and Patrick Zalupski should assume ownership of the Rays before the outfielder signs.  Given that Zalupski can't magically change the Rays' market size, he doesn't have a plan for a new stadium in place, and he doesn't have Steve Cohen type net worth, this is still pretty close to "no chance."
• Blue Jays: Nathan Lukes, Daulton Varsho, and Addison Barger make up a typical Jays outfield right now, with George Springer, Myles Straw, and Davis Schneider also drawing some starts and Anthony Santander on the IL.  Re-signing Bo Bichette or adding starting pitching would seem more urgent, but there's no particular impediment to the Blue Jays pursuing Tucker.  Plus, Excel did the Springer deal with the Blue Jays.
• Athletics: The A's made their statement last winter with a trio of $60-something million contracts (Luis Severino, Lawrence Butler, and Brent Rooker).  That's still a very far cry from Tucker's stratosphere, and he's not going to elect to make Sutter Health Park his new home for the next few years.
• Astros: There's no evidence the Astros got anywhere with extension talks when they had Tucker, and no reason to think Jim Crane will break precedent and give him a huge contract on the open market.
• Angels: With Anthony Rendon's contract almost off the books, could the Angels try for a major free agent once again?  There's no compelling reason to think so, but Arte Moreno is at least capable of swimming in these waters.
• Mariners: The Robinson Cano deal happened nearly 12 years ago; the Mariners would likely have to similarly bowl over the competition to convince Tucker to come there.  Consider it unlikely, but not absurd.
• Rangers: The Rangers are on track to stay under the CBT and thus reset their payor status.  Adding a fourth huge contract running into a player's late 30s might not be the best long-term move, and starting pitching seems more urgent, but a pursuit of Tucker can't be ruled out.

Moving on to the National League:

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This week's mailbag gets into the Cubs and Kyle Tucker, the Reds trading Nick Lodolo for a big bat this winter, Bo Bichette's contract, and offseason approaches for the Rays and Mets.

NE asks:

Do the Cubs and Kyle Tucker have any interest in an extension?

Tucker came out of the gates with a 157 wRC+ in 370 plate appearances through June.  That performance put him basically in a dead heat with fellow All-Star starter Pete Crow-Armstrong and Shohei Ohtani with 4 WAR, at which point all three players were in the NL MVP race.

Tucker jammed his right ring finger on a June 1st slide.  He continued to play well, but later revealed that "a week or two after that" x-rays found a hairline fracture.  The narrative around the injury remains confusing.

Tucker posted a 173 wRC+ in June, the best month of his season.  He homered on June 28th as part of a four-hit game.  Then he went on to hit just one home run over his next 172 PA.  So the idea is that Tucker played through this injury but it only began to sap his power four weeks later, perhaps due to some mechanical change to his swing.

By mid-August, Tucker was throwing his helmet, slamming his bat, failing to run out grounders, and getting booed by Cubs fans.  On August 18th, Cubs manager Craig Counsell announced the plan to give Tucker a mental reset on the bench.  The following day, Brewers manager Pat Murphy went on 670 The Score and said, "I think Tucker is hurt. I don't have any information, but Tucker's not the same. He's hurt, and he's playing through it. He's such a class kid that he probably doesn't mention it to anyone."

Murphy's comments caused the Cubs to fess up to Tucker playing through the hairline fracture.  It was just a very odd way for this to all go down: the injury that didn't manifest itself for four weeks, and the reveal coming from a rival team's manager who either made a really good guess or actually did have some information.

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This week's mailbag gets into extension possibilities, realignment problems, whether a Ketel Marte trade makes sense, Reid Detmers' future, and much more.

Greg asks:

With a good spring is there a possibility of the Pirates signing Konnor Griffin long-term and starting him on Day 1?

In Baseball America's August update, shortstop Konnor Griffin was ranked as the top prospect in all of baseball.  BA wrote, "Griffin has taken off like a meteor this season and his penchant for impact hasn’t slowed down even despite a promotion to High-A. The 19-year-old has made significant strides in allaying concerns about his hit tool and approach, and the rest of his overall game has evaluators buzzing as they envision how his plus power, speed and at least above-average defense at two different positions could come together."

Griffin has mostly played shortstop this year, with the occasional start in center field.  He posted a 156 wRC+ in A ball and got even better in High-A with a 169 mark.  Though he doesn't turn 20 until next April, Griffin got another promotion to Double-A this past weekend.

Given that Griffin has played one game in Double-A and the Altoona Curve only have 23 more on the schedule, putting him on the Pirates' Opening Day roster next year at age 19 would be aggressive, perhaps to the point of being detrimental.  Even Jackson Chourio played 122 games at Double-A and had a brief taste of Triple-A.  But let's explore the likelihood of an extension.

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This week's mailbag gets into a qualifying offer for Trent Grisham, the likelihood of the Reds signing Elly De La Cruz long-term, preseason projections consistently whiffing on the Brewers, how a lockout might affect free agency in 2026-27, what it might take to extend Alex Bregman, and much more.

Dmitry asks:

I keep seeing that the Yankees wont re-sign Trent Grisham. What is the downside to a QO? is 22 million for a 3 win CF in his prime on a one year deal really that bad?

Grisham, 29 in November, is on pace for a 2.8 WAR season in about 139 games.  He's missed some time on the paternity list and a few games due to a hamstring issue.

Grisham was widely seen as a non-tender candidate in the offseason, but instead accepted a $500K pay cut to land at $5MM on a pre-tender deal.  He had an 87 wRC+ from 2022-24 over 1,288 plate appearances.  Despite avoiding the IL in 2024, Grisham played in only 76 games for the Yankees, who had an outfield of Alex Verdugo, Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto.

Prior to this year, Grisham was more of a sub-2-WAR backup outfielder or bottom of the order regular who was not considered worthy of a $6MM salary.

The main wart on Grisham's season is that he's only hit like this (126 wRC+) once before, in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.  But Grisham has a career-low strikeout rate with career-best power, plus good Statcast metrics. Though he owes some of his success to a huge April, he's still managed a 113 wRC+ since.  The Yankees sat Grisham a fair bit against lefties last year, but not this year, and he's been tolerable against them.

Once one of the faster players in baseball, Grisham lost several steps in 2023 and now sits in the 33rd percentile for sprint speed.  That might partially explain why the two-time Gold Glover has a negative Outs Above Average mark for the first time in his career.  Defensive runs saved shows a similar story.

When it hasn't been Grisham in center field for the Yankees this year, it's been Cody Bellinger.  Bellinger figures to take a $5MM buyout over his final $25MM salary for 2026, meaning both outfielders will be free agents.  Assuming the Yankees don't want to give Harrison Bader another try, their main free agent alternative would be Cedric Mullins.  The trade market could feature Luis Robert Jr. and little else at center.

Internally, Spencer Jones would be the main option if both Bellinger and Grisham depart.  Jones, 25 in May, has torched both Double-A and Triple-A pitching this year, dropping his strikeout rate from 33.7% to 26.0% at the higher level.

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This week's mailbag covers Kyle Schwarber's impending free agency, what the Braves should do in the offseason, whether Trevor Story could opt out, why MLB killed August waiver trades, how Josh Naylor will fare in free agency, the potentially weak 2026-27 free agent class, the chances the Dodgers sign Kyle Tucker, the Rockies' young bats, and more.

Fred asks:

I can't believe that John Middleton will let Kyle Schwarber play anywhere else but Philly next year, especially with the overall drop in the Phillies' non-Schwarber power output this year. Does a 4/125 extension keep him away from free agency?

Schwarber turns 33 in March.  He's mashing this year like never before.  Schwarber has already reached his first 4 WAR season, should fly past 5 WAR, and won't be far off 6 WAR.  His previous career-high was 3.3 last year.  The bar is very high for offense when you have no defensive value.

Regarding the term, only two DHs age 33 and up have achieved four years in free agency: Nelson Cruz and Victor Martinez within a month of each other in December 2014.  They were actually age 34 and 36, respectively, so I guess that's a (weak) case to actually go to five years on Schwarber.

To Fred's question, yes - four years at $31.25MM per year should definitely keep Schwarber away from free agency.  The Phillies have a $185MM CBT payroll for next year at the moment, given Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suarez, Jordan Romano, and others coming off the books.  There would be room to give Schwarber a contract with a $30MM AAV, and it was Dave Dombrowski who did that ill-fated V-Mart deal with the Tigers.  But would this type of contract with Schwarber be a good idea?

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