Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag

Our final subscriber mailbag before the trade deadline gets into the Guardians trading Steven Kwan and Shane Bieber, what's next for the Yankees, Giants, and Cubs, Dave Dombrowski's approach toward trading top Phillies prospects, and positives for the Braves.

John asks:

Where does Cleveland go from here? Kwan isn't signing long term. Clase may be lost. Will Santana be dfa for Kayfus?

Robb asks:

Would the Guardians be more receptive to dealing Steven Kwan if the Dodgers take Shane Bieber off their hands? Even so, I doubt anything less than Dalton Rushing would interest the Guardians as a starting point.

In a recent report, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said Kwan is drawing a ton of interest, and Emmanuel Clase's non-disciplinary leave might increase the chances of a trade.

Kwan, 28 in September, is earning $4.175MM this year and is under team control through 2027.  Though he's not a flashy player, Kwan has been worth about 4 WAR per 650 plate appearances in his career and this season is no different.

Trading Kwan would be risky for the Guardians, as the franchise has failed to find or produce an outfielder of this caliber since perhaps Michael Brantley.  Nor will Kwan's arbitration salaries be prohibitive, even for the Guardians.  The next big hopes are Chase DeLauter, who may be out for the season due to a hamate fracture, and Jaison Chourio, who has yet to succeed at High-A.

Still, trading players with Kwan's service time is the circle of life for the Guardians, so I imagine if someone offers multiple cornerstone top-100 prospect type players (especially position players), they'll take a hard look at it.

Carlos Santana is 39 and he's been terrible since June, so I could see a DFA in the offing.  The Guardians may first attempt some of the $4MM he's still owed this year.  C.J. Kayfus, 23, has done nothing but rake in the minors, though his Triple-A strikeout rate is high at 28%.  It'd make sense to give Kayfus a look this year, unless the team is trying not to start his service time clock.

What will happen with Bieber, one of the more intriguing trade targets of the 2025 deadline?

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This week's mailbag covers Yankees prospect Spencer Jones, comps for a Mason Miller trade, and trade deadline situations involving the Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, and Dodgers.

Angel asks:

Do you believe the Yankees now view Spencer Jones as untouchable? His trajectory is so similar to Judge's, but I'd sign right now for 75% of Judge.

Jack asks:

Why does it feel like lots of the Yankees prospects don’t pan out in the MLB? Do you believe it’s because they’re overhyped, poor player development, a mix of both, or something completely else?

Sandy asks:

Volpe made another critical error last night. He seems to wilt under pressure in clutch defensive situations even if his dWar is positive at 0.8. Are the Yankees having second thoughts about their long-term shortstop? Should they? His bat has never been up to league average. Thanks!

Charles asks:

What would it take for the Yanks to get Bednar, Keller, and IKF in a package from the Pirates? It seems that if they are going to be contenders they need something like that.

Jones  is an interesting and polarizing prospect.  His stock seemed to drop in 2024, as he spent the season at Double-A and posted a 127 wRC+ with a whopping 36.8% strikeout rate.

In another 208 PA at the level this year, Jones still struck out 33.7% of the time, but posted a massive 186 wRC+ to earn a Triple-A promotion.  That came on June 27th.  He has since annihilated Triple-A pitching with a 205 wRC+, which includes 10 home runs in 79 PA.  His strikeout rate for the RailRiders is down to 26.6%.

The sample size makes this tricky.  Jones tinkers with his swing a lot, but 79 PA isn't enough to say that he's truly cut the strikeouts.  If he'd struck out five additional times in Triple-A - one additional time every three games -  his K% would be 32.9.

The error bars on Jones are wide, but the odds are currently stacked against him becoming a star.  Jones' Double-A sample is still bigger than his Triple-A one.  Let's see if we can find some comps who struck out at least 30% of the time at Double-A at age 24 or younger while posting a 130 wRC+ or better.

• 2014: Joey Gallo
• 2015: Will Swanner
• 2016: Yoan Moncada, Dylan Cozens, Nellie Rodriguez
• 2017: Eric Haase
• 2019: Colton Shaver, Riley Adams, Vince Fernandez, Drew Ward

Gallo and Moncada at least had a few star-caliber seasons in the Majors between them.  Otherwise, these guys did not become stars or even MLB regulars.  They also did not cut their strikeout rates and dominate Triple-A pitching, so if Jones keeps that up he'll be charting a new trajectory.

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This week's mailbag gets into relief options for the Tigers, whether the Nationals should trade MacKenzie Gore, and the trade value of Athletics JJ Bleday and Luis Severino, as well as questions involving the Astros, Reds, Rangers, Cubs, and Red Sox.

Colin asks:

A few days ago, the Dodgers traded Noah Davis to the Twins for cash.  Davis was not at all successful with the Dodgers.  Can you tell me how much cash a team typically gets in a situation like that?

I ran this question by a front office friend.  He replied, "The dollar amount received by clubs trading away a DFA’d player for cash considerations almost always falls between $55,000 and $100,000.  There’s little incentive for clubs to trade the player for anything less than $50,000 because the club will receive that amount if the player is claimed off waivers. MLB caps cash transactions in this situation to a maximum of $100,000. Thus, most cash transactions of this nature end up in the $55,000 to $100,000 range."

Barry asks:

I really feel that Detroit needs two bullpen arms, one of which could close out games or be in the closing mix and match what AJ does. Any insight as to who the Tigers are looking at? I am thinking that David Bednar is the type of pitcher Detroit likes, controlling the strike zone, low walks.

Michael asks:

Coming out of the break, the Tigers have the best record in baseball and the biggest division lead. Nobody had that on their bingo card. In light of that, what should be Detroit's plan for the next two weeks? Should they swing for the fences and if so, how? Or look to add a piece here and there but not mortgage the future (or empty the farm) in favor of adding big names now?

The Tigers definitely need to add late inning relievers who can miss bats.  There's a good case to be made for signing David Robertson, who is reportedly throwing for interested teams.

The average MLB reliever punches out 22.4% of batters faced and has an 11.3% swinging strike rate.  We saw trade rumors on Mason Miller of the Athletics last summer; his K% is over 40%.  He's under team control through 2029, though, so the A's have no reason to trade him now unless they feel they're selling high or received an offer they can't refuse.

The Orioles' Felix Bautista is under team control through 2027.  He has a huge strikeout rate as well, but walks even more batters than Miller.  Bautista's teammate Seranthony Dominguez is in that same class.  A free agent after the season, Dominguez seems a lock to be dealt.  Same goes for Gregory Soto, so it makes sense for Scott Harris to be blowing up Mike Elias' phone.

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This week's mailbag gets into the Cardinals' deadline approach, the lefty relief market, offseason ideas for the Rangers, the Mariners trading Julio Rodriguez, who the Yankees could give up in trades, Bo Bichette's future, and much more.

Rich asks:

With two bad performances by starting pitchers, Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde, will the Cardinals seek a trade for at least one veteran starting pitcher?

Sam asks:

Bernie Miklasz who seems pretty well sourced was talking about the Cardinals potentially trading Nootbaar. If they do that, what sort of return would the Cardinals get? His results are not good but his statcast data is great.

At the time of this writing, the Cardinals are 1.5 games out in the wild card with a 33.5% chance at the playoffs.

The first question reminds me a bit of the 2021 season, when John Mozeliak's Cardinals reached deadline day as a .500 club with just a 2-3% chance at the playoffs.  The club picked up veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ at the deadline, with Mozeliak saying, "We wanted to try to do it in a way that we wouldn't be giving up a lot of future talent; that was something that was sort of critical in our decision-making. Needless to say, today we felt like we took a couple steps forward without having to sacrifice our future."

The 2021 team went 39-21 from July 30th onward before losing the (lone) NL Wild Card game against the Dodgers.  Lester and Happ gave the Cardinals exactly what they wanted: innings.  Innings are generally what Mikolas and Fedde provide, having combined for 349 of them last year.  Sonny Gray has been excellent, while Matthew Liberatore and Andre Pallante have been solid.

Mikolas and Fedde do deserve ERAs around 5.00, and there's logic to seeking an upgrade - either one controllable beyond this year, or one in the Lester/Happ mold who doesn't cost much.  In my recent Cubs Trade Deadline Outlook, I named just about every potentially available starting pitcher I could think of, though Steve Adams suggested I add Drew Rasmussen.  The Cardinals have a very real shot at reaching the playoffs this year - perhaps more than they expected coming into the season - and I do think they should add a starter.

In an article Monday, Katie Woo of The Athletic noted that Fedde may not take his next turn in the rotation, and Mikolas shouldn't feel comfortable either.  Michael McGreevy is the next man up.  The 25-year-old has excelled in Triple-A and can probably do better than Fedde.

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This week's mailbag is a bit of a hybrid. MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes handles the first handful of questions, while Anthony Franco takes the final few to round it out. We'll get into the Braves' continually sinking playoff chances, trade possibilities for the Cubs, Roki Sasaki's disappointing debut season, deadline outlooks for a handful of bubble teams, and much more!

Kevin asks:

Should the Braves attempt a rebuild, move on from some of the core that is underperforming again and develop a new draft philosophy? Maybe draft some hitters?

Phillip asks:

I am a Braves Fan, win or lose and I watch them every night. This season and the season they won the World Series are 2 different entities. Why would the Braves not trade Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna? I mean we have so many weaknesses, we have 3 starting pitchers, bottom of our lineup is worst in baseball and our relievers are among the worst in baseball. What could we get for Ozuna and Iglesias?

It's worth considering that the 2021 Braves were 30-35 with 12% playoff odds on 6-16-21.  On 7-2-21, that had risen to 40-41 with a 20.6% chance at the playoffs.  The current team is worse at 38-46, but still holds a 17.2% chance at the playoffs.  It's not that different from where the World Series-winning team once was.

Still, the Braves are 7.5 games out in the Wild Card.  They've played like a 73-win team.  To have a shot at the playoffs they'd need to play more like a 100-win team.  I'm more on the side of Braves fans here than I am on the side of FanGraphs Playoff Odds.  And these guys wrote in before news of Spencer Schwellenbach's injury.

Ozuna, 34, has experienced a power outage this year.  However, his expected slugging percentage is .487 versus his actual .392 mark, and I assume he'll be fine.  He's a DH-only rental making $16MM, so my guess is that he'd bring in 40-grade type prospects.  Iglesias is 35 and making the same money.  His velocity and strikeout rate are slipping, and somehow 18.4% of his flyballs have left the yard.  I think he'd be a pure salary dump.

So while I don't think the Braves will make the playoffs, I also don't think they're re-stocking the farm system by trading Ozuna and Iglesias.

As for Kevin's question, let's do a mini-assessment of the Braves' core, with the player's 2026 age in parentheses.  Money owed in 2025 is not included.

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This week's mailbag gets into many aspects of the Rafael Devers trade, remaining questions to answer in Boston, no-trade clauses, shortstop options for the Braves, Pete Alonso's next contract, Ryan Helsley's struggles, and much more.

Kevin asks:

What's your personal take on the Giants trade? I think Boston got the better deal.

John asks:

Seen a lot of talk from fans and the media that Devers contract will age badly but I did a little digging into the Contract Tracker. Between 2015 and 2020 there were 12 contracts with an AAV at 30 mil. and over. This year alone there were 5, including one for 50. So am I wrong to think that given the way salaries have escalated by the end of the contract 30 mil. likely won't be that big a deal?

Denny asks:

Will Devers HR stats suffer playing home games at whatever the current name is of the ballpark in SF?

My initial reaction was to favor the Giants' side of the deal.  They added a 28-year-old top 10 hitter in baseball who should be worth 3-4 WAR per year for the foreseeable future.  The Giants also ditched Jordan Hicks' contract in the process.

The Giants could feel pain from moving Kyle Harrison and James Tibbs III, but probably not in the short-term.  The balance of this deal hinges heavily on Harrison, who is just 23 and retains number two starter upside.  The Red Sox can control Harrison through 2030 if they keep him in the minors for a few weeks, which I'm guessing is the plan.  Harrison has at least held his own through the equivalent of one Major League season.

Tibbs is considered a 50-grade prospect; he'll have to hit a lot to profile as a corner outfield regular.  Jose Bello is the wild card prospect, and those get moved regularly.

I have seen multiple anonymous executives suggest Devers' contract is underwater, meaning he's worth less than he's owed.  You could look at that in a strict dollars per WAR/aging curve sense, plugging in Devers as a 4-ish WAR player for 2025 who will begin his decline in 2026 or '27 and will be paid through 2033 (age 36).  WAR doesn't like a player like this, especially if he's a DH, and I could see valuing him below $250MM with this approach.

Say Devers was owed $253MM at the time of the trade, plus a $2MM assignment bonus paid by the Giants.  Let's also say that Hicks should be valued around $8MM per year.  Given that his contract pays $12MM a year through 2027, the Giants save approximately $10MM by unloading Hicks' contract.  Factor in Devers' deferrals and we'll say it's like the Giants are paying Devers around $225MM for the next 8.5 years.

Had Devers been declared a free agent on June 15, would he have topped $225MM?

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It's time for another installment of our weekly MLB Mailbag. I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes once more this week before he takes back over next week. In today's mailbag, we'll look at Devin Williams' signature changeup, a group of potential first base targets on the trade market and what they might cost, Framber Valdez's earning power, Colt Keith's role in Detroit, the Red Sox' struggles and Rafael Devers' future, the Dodgers' third base outlook and Toronto's collection of outfielders. Let's dive in.

Elden asks:

I admittedly never followed Devin Williams before the NYY acquired him but isn't it odd to have a closer so heavily reliant on changeups? What is the current timeline to get Weaver back?

It's odd, yes, but when said changeup is arguably the best pitch in baseball since Williams' debut, it's hard to argue with the approach. First, let's look at historical changeup usage by Williams.

Sports Info Solutions began tracking pitch types back in 2002. Since the 2002 season, there have been 6500 individual seasons by relievers with more than 20 innings thrown. Only 20 of them have seen a reliever deploy his changeup at a 50% clip or higher. Williams has five of those. Tommy Kahnle has four of them.

Williams isn't the only reliever to make a career out of a lethal changeup, of course. Trevor Hoffman rode his changeup to the Hall of Fame. Francisco Rodriguez and Fernando Rodney had dominant changeups at their peaks. None threw their changeup even close to as frequently as Williams, however. Broadly speaking, yes, it's quite rare for relievers to be this reliant on changeups. It's rare for relievers to even have a changeup as their go-to secondary offering; fastball/slider combos have been en vogue for years and remain so.

Statcast and its pitch tracking data were rolled out in all 30 MLB parks back in 2015. Since 2015, Williams' "Airbender" unsurprisingly grades out as the best changeup in the sport, but it's also the eighth-most valuable pitch overall. The only individual pitches that carry greater value in that time are (in order): Kenley Jansen's cutter, Josh Hader's sinker, Chad Green's four-seamer (!!), Edwin Diaz's slider, Zack Britton's sinker, Emmanuel Clase's cutter and Liam Hendriks' four-seamer. Of course, it bears mentioning that Jansen, Hader, Green, Hendriks and Diaz have all pitched far more in that decade-long window than Williams, who only debuted in 2019.

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I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes on this week's edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. We'll tackle questions on Jarren Duran and the Padres, Alex Bregman's opt-out status, Donovan Solano and Tyler Locklear in Seattle, Masataka Yoshida, Brendan Donovan, some Giants rotation standouts, the Angels' bullpen and more!

Ross asks:

With the report that the Padres are interested in Jarren Duran, what would be a reasonable return for the Red Sox?

As we discussed on the podcast this week, the Padres/Duran connection feels like it's drawing a bit more attention than it should, at least based on the chances of him actually changing hands (even more so if we specifically zero in on the Padres). That's not to say there's no chance of a Duran deal, but the Padres have a clear need in the outfield and an ultra-aggressive baseball operations leader in A.J. Preller. It'd frankly be more surprising if they hadn't inquired on Duran.

That said, it's worth diving into a bit. Duran had a borderline MVP-caliber season last year, hitting .285/.342/.492 with plus defense and elite baserunning. Baseball-Reference valued him at 8.7 wins above replacement. We've seen players named MVP with lesser WAR totals than that, but Duran was an afterthought in the 2024 race thanks to outrageously good seasons from Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. and (to a slightly lesser extent) Juan Soto.

The Padres' farm system was once a powerhouse but is now top-heavy and lacking depth. Shortstop Leo De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas are among MLB's 25 best prospects, but there's not a lot of other talent in the hopper. It makes a deal difficult to envision -- for multiple reasons.

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This week's mailbag gets into a potential extension for Zach Neto, who could offer a Juan Soto-like package for Paul Skenes, Ken Rosenthal's recent article on the Nationals, potentially available outfielders and relievers, upcoming free agents who have helped and hurt their stock, and much more.

RJ asks: 

What would an extension look like for Zach Neto?

Neto, 24, was the first player from the 2022 draft class to reach the Majors.  As a rookie in 2023, Neto missed a month with an oblique strain and later missed more than that with a back injury.  He didn't hit much as a rookie, but as a shortstop was still worth about 2 WAR per 150 games.

Neto avoided the IL in his breakout 2024 season and took off offensively around May, posting a 122 wRC+ from that point forward.  He logged over 1,300 innings at shortstop and was worth 3.5 WAR.  His baseball card stats were strong too, with 23 homers and 30 steals.

Statcast's Outs Above Average says Neto is a subpar defender in terms of range, suggesting he's not great at lateral movement.  The more holistic DRS sees Neto as a positive (we discussed OAA and DRS last week).  I don't get the impression his defense is considered a liability, and it probably won't limit his earning power much.

Neto underwent November shoulder surgery, making his season debut on April 18th as a result.  He's posted a 141 wRC+ in 152 plate appearances since then, which ranks 32nd in the Majors and fifth among shortstops.  He's on pace for 5.8 WAR per 150 games, which would make him a top-five shortstop in baseball.  In the small 2025 sample, Neto has traded contact for power, with a pace putting him close to 40 bombs over a full season.  Neto went from no red on his Statcast page last year to tons of it this year, with an expected slugging percentage that's actually higher than his already-excellent .542 mark.  The second-phase breakout seems real.

The Angels could hardly be accused of service time manipulation, having promoted Neto less than nine months after they signed him out of the draft.  Yet as it stands, he entered the season with one year and 170 days of Major League service, two days shy of two full years.  That means Neto will go through arbitration four times starting with the 2026 season, resulting in free agency after 2029.

Let's fire up the MLB Contract Tracker, our robust tool designed for this purpose, included with your subscription!

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