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Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays came up short on most (but not all) of their many pursuits of star free agents this winter, and the ship may have already sailed on the team's efforts to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a contract extension.  Amidst all the pessimism surrounding the Jays' future, the team did make some notable moves to try and reload the roster after a disappointing 2024 campaign.

Major League Signings

2025 spending: $59MM (not counting Tate/Walker)
Total spending: $156MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Toronto hitters combined for only 156 home runs and a .389 slugging percentage in 2024, so a 44-homer bat like Anthony Santander should bring some much-needed thunder to the lineup.  The Blue Jays made a hefty $92.5MM investment that Santander can build on the career year that saw him hit .235/.308/.506 over 665 plate appearances for the Orioles, while handily topping his previous high of 33 homers (in 2022).

Santander's overall hitting profile is a concern, as evidenced by the low batting average and OBP.  However, Santander still posted an above-average walk rate despite the low on-base number, and his strikeout rate remained above average in 2024 even though chasing pitches has been an issue for his entire career.  The switch-hitter is certainly a power-first (if not quite a power-only) type of batter, yet the profile fits for a Jays team lacking in pop and in left-handed hitting balance.

Santander will step right into the lineup as the everyday left fielder, and he'll probably get a decent share of DH time given that his glovework is considered only passable.  As defense-focused as the Blue Jays have been over the last couple of years, they continued to move in that direction with a surprising trade for arguably the sport's best defensive second baseman.

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Padres Have Received Interest From Around Nine Teams On Dylan Cease

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Around nine teams have been in contact with the Padres to express interest in Dylan Cease, writes Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Heyman lists the Cubs, Mets and all five AL East teams among that group. The remaining two clubs are unknown, though The Athletic reported in January that the Twins had shown interest.

A pre-Opening Day trade still seems highly unlikely. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote earlier this week that the Padres were only willing to entertain trading their top starter if they received a significant offensive upgrade in the return package. They’d almost certainly want a controllable starting pitcher who could immediately replace Cease in the rotation as well. That’s a difficult asking price for another team to meet, especially without impactful hitters remaining in free agency to backfill the lineup.

Cease was traded midway through last year’s Spring Training. That was a different situation, as the White Sox were in full rebuild mode when they dealt him to the Padres. San Diego expects to compete for a playoff spot despite budget limitations that kept them from doing much of significance until they added Nick Pivetta on a backloaded four-year deal. Cease worked 189 1/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball during his first season in San Diego. He struck out 29.4% of opponents and fanned 224 hitters overall — his fourth consecutive season above the 200 mark.

The Padres and Cease agreed to a $13.75MM salary for his final arbitration season. He’d be a lock for a qualifying offer when he hits free agency next winter unless the Friars deal him midseason, which would make him ineligible to receive the QO. Cease will be heading into his age-30 season and could command a contract above $200MM. While the Padres don’t seem optimistic about their chances of re-signing him, they’d obviously take a major downgrade to this year’s rotation if they trade him.

Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported earlier this week that the Orioles and Cubs were monitoring the rotation market. Baltimore will begin the season without Grayson Rodriguez. Chicago’s rotation hasn’t taken any huge injury hits, though they’ll be without Javier Assad for a few weeks. They’re reportedly in talks with free agent Lance Lynn, who’d be a much less costly but far lower-upside addition at the back of the rotation.

The Mets (Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea) and Yankees (Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil) have each lost multiple starters to injuries this spring. It has been particularly rough in the Bronx. Gil will likely miss the first half of the season with a lat strain. Cole will be out into the middle of 2026 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Nevertheless, respective baseball operations leaders David Stearns and Brian Cashman have indicated the New York teams are content with their internal options to weather those losses.

Boston already parted with two top prospects to add an impact starter in the Garrett Crochet deal. Toronto and Tampa Bay have rotations that arguably each run six deep. The Jays are likely to use Yariel Rodríguez in long relief. The Rays could consider trading one of their starters to settle on a five-man group. That could theoretically position Toronto or Tampa Bay to include a controllable starter in a Cease package, though there’s nothing to suggest the Padres are in anything more than due diligence mode with Opening Day two weeks off.

Blue Jays Re-Sign Dillon Tate

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March 12: The Jays officially announced their signing of Tate today. Bastardo was transferred to the 60-day IL as the corresponding move. Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet report report that Tate’s deal is a split contract that pays him at a $1.4MM rate in the majors and includes bonuses of $50K for reaching 45 and 50 games pitched.

Since Tate is on a split deal and has a minor league option remaining, he can be sent to Triple-A Buffalo without first needing to clear waivers — at least for the time being. He’s at 4.144 years of major league service, placing him just 28 days away from the five-year mark. Once players reach five years of MLB service time, they can’t be optioned without their consent.

March 10: The Blue Jays and right-hander Dillon Tate have agreed to a major league deal, pending a physical, reports Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet. The details of the deal for the CAA Sports client have not yet been publicly reported. The Jays will have to open a 40-man roster spot but could easily do so by moving Alek Manoah or Angel Bastardo, who both had Tommy John surgery last June, to the 60-day injured list.

Tate, 31 in May, was with Toronto briefly at the end of last year. The Jays claimed him off waivers from the Orioles on the first day of September. They optioned him to Triple-A, recalling him to the majors on September 18. He made four appearances with the big league club as the season was winding down. The Jays could have retained him via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $1.9MM salary, but the club non-tendered him instead.

Prior to that brief stint with the Jays, Tate’s journey had many ups and downs. One of the top names going into the 2015 draft, the Rangers took him with the fourth overall pick. Initially a top prospect, his stock wobbled a bit with some health woes. The Rangers flipped him to the Yankees in the August 2016 trade that sent Carlos Beltrán to Texas. He posted some decent numbers in the Yankees’ system but also missed time with shoulder troubles. He was then traded to the Orioles as part of the July 2018 trade that sent Zack Britton to the Yankees.

Tate was with the Orioles for the six-plus years from that Britton trade to being claimed off waivers by the Jays. Though he had been a starting pitching prospect, the O’s moved him to a relief role, perhaps in response to the injuries he had already been battling. Since then, he has occasionally shown flashes of potential as a reliever but the health woes have continued to get in the way.

From 2019 to 2022, Tate logged 179 innings out of the Baltimore bullpen. His 19.4% strikeout rate in that time was subpar but he limited walks to a 7.2% rate and also got ground balls at an excellent 58.1% clip. Among pitchers with at least 170 innings in that time frame, only Clay Holmes, Framber Valdez, Richard Bleier and Josh Fleming kept the ball on the ground at a better rate.

However, a forearm/flexor strain kept Tate on the IL for the entire 2023 season. He returned to the mound last season with his results backing up a bit. He tossed 36 2/3 innings between the orange and blue birds, with a 4.66 ERA. His strikeout rate and ground ball rate fell to 16.5% and 49.6% respectively. His fastball velocity, which averaged as high as 95.5 miles per hour in 2021, was down to just 92.6 mph last year.

Amid those struggles, both the Orioles and Jays sent him to the minors at times. He had better results down there, tossing 21 2/3 Triple-A innings with a 2.08 ERA, 23% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate, though his 41.4% ground ball rate still wasn’t up to his usual standards.

For the Jays, it’s a fairly low-risk deal. The cost hasn’t yet been reported but is likely something barely above the league minimum and might even be a split deal of some kind. Tate still has an option remaining, so he can be kept in Triple-A as bullpen depth, at least for a little while. His service time count is at four years and 144 days. That puts him 28 days shy of the five-year mark, at which point he would have the right to refuse an optional assignment.

The Toronto bullpen may be taking a hit this spring, with Erik Swanson getting tested for some elbow discomfort. Assuming Swanson starts the season on the IL, the Jays project to have a bullpen core of Jeff Hoffman, Yimi García, Chad Green and Nick Sandlin, leaving four spots potentially available. It’s possible that Yariel Rodríguez could end up in a relief role if Bowden Francis takes the final rotation spot. The Jays likely want a lefty in there, which could be Brendon Little, Josh Walker or Easton Lucas. Guys like Tommy Nance, Zach Pop and Ryan Burr are out of options, though Burr has been delayed by a shoulder injury.

Nick Robertson is also on the 40-man but has options. Adding Tate to the roster gives the Jays another optionable righty for the time being. His past prospect pedigree and strong big league results from 2019-22 give him a bit more intrigue than many optionable depth arms. If Tate can stick on the roster all year, he will be shy of six years of service, meaning the Jays could then retain him for 2026 via arbitration.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Sought $500MM Net Present Value In Extension Talks

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Last week, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. told ESPN that his asking price in extension negotiations with the Blue Jays was south of $600MM. The star first baseman didn’t publicly identify his exact demand, though he noted he was looking for a 14-plus year deal.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic provides more specifics, reporting that Guerrero wanted a net present value of $500MM to bypass testing the open market. That could have taken the form of an even $500MM+ without deferrals or a deferred deal with a loftier overall guarantee that would still have pushed the NPV to half a billion dollars. A hypothetical 14-year extension worth $500MM would come with an approximate $35.7MM annual value and would run through Guerrero’s age-39 season (assuming it began this year).

The deferrals were evidently a sticking point. Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post report that Toronto offered a deal that was in the $500MM range overall but included deferred money. According to that report, the NPV would have landed between $400MM and $450MM. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet writes that the NPV on the team’s offer was close to $450MM, suggesting they came in at the higher end of the range initially reported by The New York Post.

That would still have represented the third-largest guarantee in league history. Juan Soto easily holds the record at $765MM without deferrals. The Shohei Ohtani deal is respectively valued around $461MM and $438MM by the league and Players Association, respectively. Guerrero sought a number that would have placed him behind only Soto in net present value. His reported asking price was nowhere near Soto money, which so handily shattered prior precedent that it may be an outlier for a while. Still, it seemingly landed upwards of $50MM higher (in NPV terms) than the Jays were willing to go. Guerrero indicated he wasn’t interested in continuing negotiations beyond the opening of Spring Training. He has left the door open to reconsidering but said at the start of camp that he anticipates testing free agency.

The Jays have at least expressed a willingness to stretch the budget beyond Guerrero’s asking price for star players. They were seemingly willing to match the contract that Ohtani accepted from the Dodgers. Their precise offer to Soto isn’t clear but is believed to have been between $600MM and $700MM. That shows they’re not entirely averse to this kind of signing, yet it’s also a fact that the largest contract in franchise history remains the comparatively modest $150MM George Springer deal.

Toronto’s latest offer represents a significant jump from where they opened talks. Guerrero said over the offseason that the Jays’ offers before the Soto bidding were in the $340MM range. While the Soto price point didn’t make them willing to write a blank check for Guerrero, it seemingly contributed to them going $60MM+ above where they had been in terms of present value.

Guerrero is a career .288/.363/.500 hitter. He’s coming off his second-best season, as he raked at a .323/.396/.544 clip with 30 homers a year ago. At his best, he looks like one of the top five hitters in the game. He hasn’t quite maintained that level on an annual basis, though. He finished among the top six in MVP balloting in 2021 (finishing runner-up that year) and ’24. In the intervening two seasons, he hit .269/.341/.462 across nearly 1400 plate appearances. That’s still very good but not the kind of overwhelming numbers that’d force teams to essentially overlook questions about his defensive profile.

Assuming he gets to the market, Guerrero is likely to be the top free agent in the class. Kyle Tucker is arguably a better overall player, but the Cubs outfielder will hit free agency at age 29. Guerrero will get to the market at 27. The two-year age gap gives Guerrero the better chance to land a deal that stretches beyond a decade despite teams’ general reluctance to make extremely long commitments to first basemen.

Erik Swanson To Undergo MRI For Elbow Discomfort

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Blue Jays reliever Erik Swanson has been shut down with some elbow discomfort and is slated for an MRI, reports Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet. The further testing will shed some light on the next steps but Zwelling relays that Swanson is likely to begin the season on the injured list.

Time will tell how concerning this development is, but it’s always a bit scary when a pitcher’s elbow is a focus. It’s also the second straight spring with such a concern for Swanson. This time last year, Swanson first had to leave the club after his son was struck by a car. Once his son had recovered, the righty was slowed in camp by some forearm tightness. His MRI at that time didn’t reveal any structural damage but he did start the season on the injured list.

Swanson was able to be reinstated by mid-April but struggled badly. He had allowed 14 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings by the end of May and was optioned to Triple-A. He did finish strong, getting recalled at the end of June and posting a 2.81 earned run average over his final 25 2/3 innings.

Acquired from the Mariners as part of the Teoscar Hernández trade going into 2023, Swanson had a 2.97 ERA in his first season as a Blue Jay. He struck out 28.6% of batters faced while giving out walks at an 8% clip. He racked up 29 holds and four saves in that time. He was surely expected to play a key role in the bullpen last year until his forearm issue and early-season struggles. The strong finish left some optimism that he could get back on track in 2025, but now this latest elbow discomfort casts an ominous shadow.

The Toronto bullpen should look very different this year compared to 2024. Former closer Jordan Romano had even more significant injury troubles than Swanson last year and was non-tendered at season’s end. Génesis Cabrera, last year’s team leader in relief innings, was outrighted and elected free agency. Trevor Richards and Nate Pearson were flipped at last year’s deadline.

Ahead of 2025, the club signed Jeff Hoffman, re-signed Yimi García and acquired Nick Sandlin in the Andrés Giménez deal. Those three and holdover Chad Green should take most of the high leverage work for the Jays. Swanson would have been in that group as well but he seemingly won’t be an option, at least for the start of the season and perhaps longer, depending on what the MRI machine finds.

Assuming Swanson misses some time, the Jays will have to figure out who gets his bullpen opportunities. Assuming Yariel Rodríguez winds up in a long relief role, the Jays should have three spots alongside Hoffman, Green, García and Sandlin. None of those guys are lefties, so the Jays might lean towards having a southpaw or two. They have Brendon Little, Josh Walker and Easton Lucas on the 40-man. Richard Lovelady is also in camp as a non-roster invitee. Other righties on the roster include Tommy Nance, Zach Pop, Ryan Burr and Nick Robertson. Zwelling lists some pitchers that are impressing in camp so far, with some of the aforementioned players as well as NRIs Kevin Gowdy and Braydon Fisher. If the Jays decide to make an external addition to this group, some notable unsigned relievers include David Robertson, Craig Kimbrel and Phil Maton.

Soto: Mets Didn’t Offer The Most Money

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The Juan Soto free agency was one of the most anticipated in baseball history. It was expected to deliver historic results and did just that. He signed a massive 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets. That’s the longest contract ever and the largest guarantee. The $51MM average annual value is also a record if one considers the deferrals in Shohei Ohtani’s deal with the Dodgers. Ohtani technically got $700MM over ten years for a $70MM AAV but the heavy deferrals bring the net present value down to the $45MM range annually.

Despite all those records, Soto claims he could have got more. Abriendo Sports released a teaser for a Spanish-language interview they did with Soto. The full conversation won’t be released until Sunday but reporter Mike Rodriguez provided an English translation of the teaser. Soto says that the field was narrowed to the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Blue Jays and Red Sox and that the Mets didn’t offer the most money, with multiple teams offering more.

No other details were provided but it’s potentially an interesting bit of information. The five finalists are not surprising, as they were the clubs most often connected to Soto throughout the winter and towards the end of his free agency. Soto’s claim that the offer from the Mets wasn’t actually the highest doesn’t align with previous reporting. At the time of the agreement with the Mets, it was reported by Jon Heyman of The New York Post that the Yankees topped out at $760MM over 16 years. Sean McAdam of MassLive reported that the Red Sox maxxed out at $700MM over 15.  Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported that the Blue Jays stopped short of $700MM. Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, Brendan Kuty and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Dodgers stopped at $600MM.

All those numbers are under what Soto got from the Mets, so it’s tough to figure which teams could have had a larger offer than $765MM. Andy Martino of SNY reports today that Boston was one of multiple clubs willing to go higher than the top offer if they thought Soto would accept, but he went to the Mets because of the “family-friendly vibe” established by Alex Cohen, wife of Mets owner Steve Cohen. Perhaps the Red Sox had topped out at $700MM in terms of an official offer but had made some sort of verbal indication to Soto and agent Scott Boras that they were willing to keep pushing.

Speculatively speaking, it’s also possible that there was some creative accounting going on. The Dodgers are famous/infamous for their heavy use of deferred money in the contracts they sign with players. Ohtani’s contract is the most extreme example. As mentioned, it came with an advertised sticker price of $700MM but actually had a net present value that the league calculated at just over $460MM while the MLBPA calculated it around $438MM. While the Dodgers reportedly stopped their offer at $600MM, perhaps that was a post-deferral number, while the offer might have had a shinier pre-deferral number.

Or perhaps there was some mystery team willing to throw out wild numbers that Soto never took especially seriously. 11 clubs reportedly reached out to him at the start of free agency. Soto was connected to clubs like the Giants, Phillies, Rays, Royals and even his original Nationals club at various points through the offseason. None of them seemed to get especially close. The Rays reportedly offered Soto some kind of high-AAV deal on a short-term, so it’s also possible that’s what Soto is referring to. Maybe the Rays offered a higher AAV than the Mets but with far fewer years.

Ultimately, it’s all a moot point. Soto has signed with the Mets and that can’t be changed now. Still, it does make for fun hypothetical speculation. Teams generally went nuts for Soto because of his incredible track record at such a young age. Many top prospects don’t debut until their mid-20s but Soto already had 936 big league games under his belt by the end of his age-25 season. And he had hit .285/.421/.532 for a 158 wRC+ in those. To get that player with so many prime years remaining was a very rare alignment that led to an unprecedented bidding war and perhaps we don’t know how high it actually could have gone.

Guerrero: Asking Price In Extension Talks Was Below $600MM

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Extension talks between the Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn’t result in a deal before the start of Spring Training. That has been the slugger’s self-imposed deadline. While he left the door ajar to hearing out other offers from Toronto, Guerrero said last month that he expects to test free agency.

The four-time All-Star provided some details on negotiations in a Spanish-language interview with Enrique Rojas and Juan Arturo Recio of ESPN. ESPN has also published a summary of Guerrero’s comments in English. Most notably, he says that his camp’s final offer to the Jays checked in below $600MM, though he did not provide the specific asking price. He pushed back against the suggestion that he was seeking a deal comparable to the $765MM which Juan Soto secured from the Mets.

While Guerrero seemingly wasn’t pursuing an average annual value close to Soto’s $51MM mark, he did seek one of the largest contracts ever. Guerrero indicated he was looking for 14 or 15 years. Soto’s 15-year contract is the longest of all time. Fernando Tatis Jr. inked a 14-year extension, but that began in his age-22 season. Guerrero turns 26 in a few weeks. Even if the extension proposal would have bought out his final arbitration year, a deal of 14-plus years would run through at least age 39.

The Jays were involved in the Soto bidding. They were seemingly among the teams willing to go above $600MM on the superstar outfielder. Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported shortly after Soto agreed to his deal with the Mets that Toronto’s last offer landed below $700MM. One could argue they should be willing to make a similar investment for Guerrero, but his track record has been less consistent — which is reflected in the comparably lower asking price.

Guerrero is a career .288/.363/.500 hitter. He’s coming off his second-best season, as he raked at a .323/.396/.544 clip with 30 homers a year ago. Soto has a lifetime .285/.421/.532 batting line; he hit .288/.419/.569 with 41 longballs during his walk year with the Yankees. Guerrero said in December that the Jays had made an offer in the $340MM range prior to the Soto contract. That would have valued him similarly to Rafael Devers, who inked a $313.5MM extension with the Red Sox in 2023. Devers was a career .283/.342/.512 hitter who was entering his age-26 season at the time. While he played a more valuable position, he’s a below-average defender at the hot corner.

It remains to be seen whether the Soto contract will dramatically improve the market for future top free agents. Teams could view him as an outlier, the kind of free agent who might only come along once every few decades. From a net present value perspective, Soto obliterated prior precedent. Shohei Ohtani’s deal was valued around $461MM and $438MM by MLB and the Players Association, respectively. That reflected the massive deferral structure. Either net present value still represented the largest contract in league history at the time. Soto broke that record by more than $300MM.

Guerrero and Kyle Tucker headline next winter’s free agent class. Tucker is coming off a monster .289/.408/.585 showing and plays a solid right field. He’s arguably the better player in the short term, but Guerrero is two years younger. That could give him the greatest earning power in the class, though it’ll obviously be heavily dependent on their respective platform seasons. Guerrero will make $28.5MM in his final year of arbitration.

Latest On Daulton Varsho

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Daulton Varsho underwent rotator cuff surgery in late September, with the expectation that he would likely start the season on the 10-day injured list, even if his absence wouldn’t stretch too far into April.  That timeline isn’t much clearer now that Spring Training is well underway, but Varsho logged his first Grapefruit League action yesterday, going 1-for-3 with a homer while acting as the Blue Jays’ designated hitter in a 10-7 win over the Tigers.  Getting back to regular hitting action is certainly a good sign for Varsho, and Jays manager John Schneider also provided reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) with some updates on Varsho’s defensive progress.

On The Future Of The Blue Jays

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A lot can change in a year for a baseball team. Around this time in 2024, FanGraphs gave the Tigers a 28.9% chance of making the playoffs and had the Cardinals as the favorites to win the National League Central.

Detroit had a middling first half and sold at the deadline, trading Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers for prospects. They surged to the playoffs without Flaherty, then re-signed him this winter and now enter 2025 as clear contenders. The Cardinals kept their hopes alive through most of 2024, acquiring Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham and Shawn Armstrong at the deadline. But when that fell short, they decided to hit the reset button and don’t seem to be planning to compete anytime soon. Even their offseason reboot plans were scuttled, with various players using their no-trade clauses to block deals the front office surely hoped to make.

Going into 2025, the Blue Jays are perhaps the club with the widest spectrum of possible outcomes. On the one hand, a lot of the roster is the same club that played at a pretty consistent 90-win pace over the 2020-23 period. They had an injury-marred season in 2024 but bolstered the roster in the winter in an attempt to return to contention in 2025. With the expanded playoffs, getting back into the mix this year is entirely possible.

The American League East seems wide open. The FanGraphs Projected Standings have all five clubs with a 35-71% chance of getting a postseason spot, with the Jays at 38.3%. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are somewhat similar, with the Jays at 48.5% and no club higher than 72.3%. For the entire American League, both projection systems have 12 clubs in the 19-71% range, with only the Angels, Athletics and White Sox lower than that.

The other side of the coin is well known at this point. The club is losing its grip on several of its key players. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the most notable, as he’s an impending free agent that the club hasn’t been able to sign to a long-term deal. The same is true of Bo Bichette, the club’s other longtime core piece. Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Chad Green and Erik Swanson are also slated for the open market this fall. George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Yimi García, Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk are on pace to be free agents after 2026. José Berríos can join that latter group by opting out of the final two years of his deal. All could be trade candidates this summer if things aren’t going well.

That situation extends beyond the roster. President Mark Shapiro is reportedly going into the final year of his contract. General manager Ross Atkins is reportedly only signed through 2026. Manager John Schneider is signed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. Around the baseball world, there is an expectation that a poor season will lead to significant changes. If the Jays are bad again in 2025, no one would really be shocked if Shapiro, Atkins and Schneider are all gone.

Even if the team does manage to put together a good season in 2025, there will be questions to be answered about the future. As mentioned, several players are set to qualify for free agency in this coming winter or the one after that.

Whether they can replace some of those players internally is tough to say. Industry evaluations of the system as a whole are not strong. Baseball America ranks the farm system 23rd in the league. Keith Law of The Athletic and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN recently put them 24th.

That’s not necessarily shocking, as the club has been putting a priority on the big league roster lately. Bassitt and Springer had rejected qualifying offers, so the Jays had to give up a draft pick for each of those deals. The same is true of the upcoming draft, as Anthony Santander also rejected a QO.

Of the club’s five first-round picks from 2018 to 2022, they eventually traded three. They sent Jordan Groshans to the Marlins in the Anthony Bass/Zach Pop deal, Austin Martin to the Twins in the Berríos trade and Gunnar Hoglund to the Athletics in the Matt Chapman trade. The other two, Alek Manoah and Brandon Barriera, are both recovering from Tommy John surgery right now. Other notable prospects like Ricky Tiedemann and Landen Maroudis are also working back from TJS.

That has left the club with a clear lack in top-end talent. Baseball America has just one Jay on their top 100, with Tiedemann having literally the last spot. The lists from FanGraphs, ESPN, MLB Pipeline and Law all have two or three Jays on them but no one in the top 60.

A person looking for optimism could focus on the volume of guys who are either borderline top 100 guys or just outside of that designation. In addition to their recent top 100 list, Baseball America also released a list of every player who received at least one vote from one of their writers. They build their top 100 by having several contributors submit a top 150 ranking, then use a points system to combine those different lists.

As mentioned, the Jays ultimately only got one guy on there with Tiedemann taking the final spot, but he was one of seven different players to receive a vote. That means that at least one BA staffer considered Jake Bloss, Arjun Nimmala, Alan Roden, Josh Kasevich, Orelvis Martínez or Trey Yesavage to be a borderline top 100 guy. Some of those guys appeared on the other linked top 100 lists. Only one club had more than 11 players on that vote-getter list from BA, while some clubs had as few as three.

The volume of the Jays’ system also appeared to show up at ZiPS, the projection system from Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. ZiPS had five guys on the top 100, six guys in the top 200 and 20 in the top 500. In that latter category, only three clubs were ahead of the Jays. The Rays had 24, with the Reds and White Sox at 21.

This quantity-over-quality assessment probably aligns with the observations of anyone earnestly following the club. They have an army of guys who are not really considered top prospects but seem perhaps capable of being major leaguers in the near future. This includes guys like Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase, Charles McAdoo, RJ Schreck, Adam Macko and Lazaro Estrada. They also have some guys who are no longer prospects and aren’t fully established but still have some future potential, such as Bowden Francis, Davis Schneider, Nathan Lukes, Leo Jiménez and Addison Barger.

Perhaps a few nice developments in there could make the future look a little better. But even if that comes to pass, there will still be the unanswered question of the club’s star power. The club’s attempts to sign players like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and others have come up just short. As mentioned, their overtures to Guerrero haven’t worked.

The one benefit of all those misses, and the large slate of impending free agents, is that the future payroll is fairly clean. By 2028, only Santander, Berríos, Andrés Giménez and Yariel Rodríguez will be guaranteed deals. Berríos has an opt-out after 2026. Santander and Rodríguez can opt-out after 2027, though the club can void those opt-outs by triggering club options. The Giménez deal is guaranteed through 2029 with a club option for 2030.

Though Guerrero hasn’t signed a long-term deal yet, he did leave the door open to consider a future offer if the club circled back to him. It’s also possible that he could reach free agency and re-sign, the same way that star players like Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso re-signed with the Yankees and Mets respectively. The Jays could also pivot to some other notable free agent next winter, such as Kyle Tucker, Munetaka Murakami, Dylan Cease or Zac Gallen.

While starting this piece, I considered using cliches like “shifting sands”, “fog of war”, “up in the air”, “multiverse” or “over the horizon” in the title. The point I was hoping to make is that there’s almost nothing that can be known about the Jays right now. It’s entirely plausible that they’re good this year, but also just as possible that they’re bad. Making the playoffs is totally within reason, but everyone could be traded and everyone could be fired. They could see a few of their many young guys step up and cement themselves as future pieces, offsetting the upcoming free agent departures. The system could look barren as they kick off a yearslong rebuild. They could sign a franchise-altering mega contract or they could not.

Many fans have already made up their minds about the Blue Jays but it seems like everything will be on the line this year with so much to be determined. Regardless of the outcomes, it should be interesting.

Salary Details For Several Minor League Deals

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Every offseason, the primary focus for baseball fans is on trades and free agent activity. Naturally, major league free agent signings garner the majority of the attention and generate the most buzz. Minor league signees come with less fanfare, typically with good reason. They tend to be older veterans who are looking to extend their playing careers or perhaps younger names looking to rebound from an injury or a disappointing showing the prior season (sometimes the prior few seasons).

As spring training progresses, we’re seeing an uptick in minor league signings. Free agents who’ve lingered on the market and felt their leverage in negotiations dry up begin to concede and accept non-guaranteed pacts to get to camp in hopes of winning a roster spot.

Salary details for minor league signees isn’t as prominently reported on as it is for players signing guaranteed big league deals. The Associated Press just published a list of free agent signings throughout the winter, including within salary details for a handful of (mostly) recent minor league signings. Many of the salaries reported by the AP were already known and reflected here at MLBTR, but the report does include more than two dozen previously unreported base salaries for players on minor league deals. Here’s a quick rundown (player salary links point back to prior MLBTR posts detailing that minor league signing):

Blue Jays: Jacob Barnes, RHP, $1.4MM | Ryan Yarbrough, LHP, $2MM

Braves: Curt Casali, C, $1.25MM | Buck Farmer, RHP, $1MM

Brewers: Manuel Margot, OF, $1.3MM | Mark Canha, 1B/OF, $1.4MM

Cubs: Brooks Kriske, RHP, $900K | Travis Jankowski, OF, $1.25MM | Chris Flexen, RHP, $1.5MM

Diamondbacks: Garrett Hampson, INF/OF, $1.5MM | Scott McGough, RHP, $1.25MM

Dodgers: Luis Garcia, RHP, $1.5MM

Giants: Lou Trivino, RHP, $1.5MM

Mariners: Shintaro Fujinami, RHP, $1.3MM | Trevor Gott, RHP, $1.35MM

Padres: Yuli Gurriel, 1B, $1.35MM ($100K higher than initially reported)

Rangers: Nick Ahmed, SS, $1.25MM | Jesse Chavez, RHP, $1.25MM | David Buchanan, RHP, $1.375MM | Kevin Pillar, OF, $1MM

Red Sox: Matt Moore, LHP, $2MM

Royals: Luke Maile, C, $2MM | Ross Stripling, RHP, $1.75MM

White Sox: Brandon Drury, INF/OF, $2MM | Mike Clevinger, RHP, $1.5MM

A few things bear emphasizing. First, this is clearly not a comprehensive list of minor league signings throughout the league — nor is it even a comprehensive list of the listed teams’ non-roster invitees to camp. Secondly, many of these sums are of little consequence to the team. They’re not even guaranteed, after all, and even if a player makes the Opening Day roster and earns the full slate of his minor league salary, most of these salaries aren’t going to carry significant payroll ramifications.

That’s not true across the board, though. For instance, the Rangers are fully intent on remaining under the $241MM luxury tax threshold. At present, RosterResource projects them at $235.7MM of luxury obligations. Opting to select the contract of Buchanan or Chavez rather than allocating those innings to pre-arbitration players who’s being paid at league-minimum levels (or a few thousand dollars north of it) would inch the Rangers’ CBT number forward. They’re not going to hit the tax line even in if they wind up adding multiple NRIs to the actual roster, but selecting their contracts will further narrow the resources president of baseball ops Chris Young will have at his disposal for midseason dealings.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, are effectively seated right at the tax threshold. RosterResource has them with $241.4MM of luxury considerations. Team president Sam Kennedy said after signing Alex Bregman that he expects his team will be a CBT payor in 2025. As things stand, the Sox could duck back under that threshold, but selecting the contract of Moore, Adam Ottavino (also $2MM) or another prominent NRI would further signal ownership’s willingness to return to luxury tax status for the first time since 2022.

There’s probably no getting back under the tax line for the Blue Jays, who currently have a $273.3MM CBT number. However, the front office would presumably like to avoid reaching $281MM in tax obligations, as that’s the point at which Toronto’s top pick in the 2026 draft would be dropped by ten spots. In-season trades will have more of an effect on their tax number than decisions on NRIs like Barnes, Yarbrough, Eric Lauer and others, but it bears mentioning that the Blue Jays are around $8MM shy of what many clubs consider to be the most detrimental impact of straying to deep into CBT waters.

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