Diamondbacks Extend Nick Ahmed
The Diamondbacks have announced a long-term deal with shortstop Nick Ahmed. Ahmed will earn a guaranteed $32.5MM over the four years covered by the deal, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports on Twitter.
Ahmed and the Snakes had been engaged in an arbitration standoff, with the player seeking $6.95MM and the team at $6.6MM. This new deal will therefore tack on three further seasons and over $25MM in new commitments. Ahmed had been due to reach free agency at the end of the 2020 season. He is a client of Meister Sports Management.
The structure includes a $1.5MM signing bonus, per Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (Twitter links). Ahmed will earn $6MM for the coming season, take home $7.5MM apiece in 2021 and 2022, and receive $10MM in the final year of the deal. There’s also a $500K escalator for each Gold Glove award that Ahmed wins, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
At first glance, it’s a heck of an outlay for a player who’s entering his age-30 campaign without so much as a single league-average offensive season under his belt. Ahmed is a career .236/.289/.387 hitter through 2,209 plate appearances at the game’s highest level.
Then again, depending upon one’s perspective — and, as ever, the way things actually play out — this could be a bargain. It seems safe to say that the Diamondbacks do not put much stock in the UZR metric, by which Ahmed has been a good but hardly remarkable performer at short. By measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average, on the other hand, Ahmed is an exceptional performer with the glove. He has also earned the National League Gold Glove in each of the past two campaigns.
But that’s only touching the surface of the intrigue when it comes to Ahmed. Long a marginal performer with the bat, he trended up to a career-best 92 wRC+ last season. Ahmed cracked the .300 OBP barrier for the first time and drove 19 balls out of the park. It’s probably not reasonable to anticipate much beyond league-average offense (if that) going forward, but the arrow is obviously pointed in the right direction given that Ahmed has been able to improve both his plate discipline (career-best .46 BB/K ratio) and power (career-best .183 ISO) at the same time.
So, what’s the total package worth? Even after the offensive uptick last year, Ahmed was only a 2.4 WAR performer by measure of Fangraphs’ UZR-based valuation. But Baseball-Reference, which utilizes DRS, pegged him at 4.5 WAR. If indeed Ahmed truly wields an elite glove and provides anything approaching the league mean with the bat, he could handily out-perform the contract. If things really click at the plate, this could even turn into a truly high-value pact. Of course, there’s also equivalent downside if Ahmed’s offensive/defensive out-making trends reverse course.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Giants Claim Jarlin Garcia, Designate Burch Smith
The Giants have claimed southpaw Jarlin Garcia off waivers from the Marlins. In a corresponding move, righty Burch Smith was designated for assignment.
It’s not surprising at all to see these two teams line up on a transaction of this nature. The Giants have claimed pitcher after pitcher under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, quite often going on to attempt to slip them through waivers. And the Marlins have dropped a variety of interesting but not-yet-established relief pitchers this winter, with quite a few landing on other 40-man rosters.
Garcia was rather successful last year, compiling 50 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA ball. He lacks eye-popping strikeout numbers, but does get a solid number of groundballs and was quite successful at limiting hard contact. Garcia also found equal success against right and left-handed hitters in 2019, though fielding-independent pitching measures suggested he was much more effective when facing southpaw swingers.
As for Smith, he was added through the waiver wire last August. The 29-year-old had some effective outings last in the year with San Francisco but has obviously yet to show he’s a reliable MLB relief option. Over 135 2/3 career innings at the game’s highest level, Smith carries a 6.57 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9.
Angels Claim Jose Quijada, Designate Parker Markel
The Angels announced that they have claimed lefty Jose Quijada off waivers from the Marlins. Righty Parker Markel was designated to create roster space.
The Halos will try to tap into the upside of Quijada, who got quite a few swings in his 2019 debut despite relying heavily upon his fastball. He also coughed up 26 walks, 19 earned runs, and 10 home runs in his first 29 2/3 MLB frames. Over seventy career Triple-A innings, Quijada carries a 3.73 ERA with 11.2 K/9 against 4.4 BB/9.
Markel also debuted in 2019, though he’s already 29 years of age. He throws a 95+ mph heater and a slider with about equal frequency, but didn’t draw a stand-out number of swinging strikes (just over ten percent) in the majors last year. He was hammered in his 22 debut innings, surrendering 19 earned runs with a 24:17 K/BB ratio. But Markel was much better in the upper minors last year, throwing 41 1/3 innings of 1.74 ERA ball with a hefty 16.3 K/9 against 5.7 BB/9.
Mariners Outright Matt Festa
The Mariners announced that right-hander Matt Festa went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Nashville. He’s been invited to Major League Spring Training as a non-roster player.
The 26-year-old Festa made his MLB debut with the Mariners in 2018 and has pitched a total of 30 2/3 innings of relief since that time. To this point in his relatively young career, Festa has managed a 4.70 ERA with a 25-to-14 K/BB ratio and a 36.5 percent ground-ball rate in the Majors.
Festa, a seventh-round pick back in 2016, has averaged about 93 mph on his four-seamer — rather pedestrian among relievers in today’s game — but the righty’s success in both Double-A and Triple-A could earn him another look with the Mariners in the future. The Seattle bullpen is short on proven assets and could feature a Rule 5 pick (Yohan Ramirez) as well as several out-of-options hurlers to begin the season (Matt Magill, Sam Tuivailala, Dan Altavilla and offseason pickup Carl Edwards Jr.). That could be a recipe for a fair bit of in-season turnover, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to Festa back in Seattle at some point this summer, particularly if he’s able to continue his strong upper-minors production.
Padres, Gordon Beckham Agree To Minor League Deal
The Padres and veteran infielder Gordon Beckham are in agreement on a minor league contract, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). He’ll be in big league camp with the Friars this spring. Beckham is represented by CAA.
The 33-year-old Beckham spent last season in the Tigers organization, appearing in 83 games and logging 240 trips to the plate — both his highest totals since the 2016 season. The former No. 8 overall pick (White Sox, 2008) managed just a .215/.271/.372 slash, though he chipped in six homers, 13 doubles and a pair of triples. Beckham appeared at all four infield spots with Detroit in 2019.
Although he’s never produced much in the Majors (career .237/.300/.367), Beckham does carry a lifetime .293/.364/.436 slash in Triple-A. He’s a reasonably versatile piece that the Padres can move all around the infield in Triple-A El Paso if he doesn’t make the big league roster out of camp.
Joc Pederson To Angels Trade Falls Through
At least one leg of the Mookie Betts marathon trade has fallen through. The Dodgers and Angels will not complete their previously agreed upon deal, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. The nails of the deal would have sent Joc Pederson , Ross Stripling and prospect Andy Pages to the Angels in exchange for Luis Rengifo.
Angels owner Arte Moreno was reportedly unhappy with the delay of the original deal, but it’s unclear if that’s the driving factor in the breakdown of this deal. Per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, the terms of the original deal were dependent upon the original Betts trade. The final iteration of the deal that landed Betts in Los Angeles made this subsequent trade “unnecessary.” It’s entirely unclear at this time if the Dodgers or Angels are putting the kibosh on the deal at this stage, per Rosenthal.
It doesn’t make a lot of intuitive sense that the newest iteration of the Betts trade would make the Pederson leg moot. The new trade actually sends an additional outfielder to the Dodgers (Luke Raley from Minnesota), as well as an additional pitcher in Brusdar Graterol who could fill much the same role that Stripling has in years past. They are also sending money to Minnesota, which would presumably encourage the egress of player payroll in the form of Pederson and/or Stripling. With Betts, Cody Bellinger, and some collection of A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor, Matt Beaty and Enrique Hernandez on hand to man the outfield (before dipping into their depth in Triple-A), Pederson certainly represents a moveable piece.
He should be an attractive trade chip at that, given his affordable $7.75MM expiring contract this season and ~127 wRC+ over the past two seasons. The Dodgers shouldn’t struggle to find a trade partner for Stripling either, should they reengage on that front. Stripling is owed just $2.1MM this season and he’s controllable for another two beyond. The Dodgers have been able to somewhat protect the 30-year-old because of their depth, but he has nonetheless put up solid numbers: 3.51 ERA/3.60 FIP across 387 innings over the past four seasons with an All-Star appearance to his credit. It certainly makes sense for somebody to give Stripling the opportunity to start full-time, should the Dodgers look to move him again.
Dodgers Acquire Mookie Betts, David Price
6:05PM: Nearing the finish line. The medicals are done and it appears as if all we’re waiting on is approval from the league, per the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com adds that the players are being notified. In his words: “That’s usually a final step.”
4:42PM: The Dodgers and Red Sox have once again agreed to a trade that will send outfielder Mookie Betts and lefty David Price to the Dodgers, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The Red Sox will include $48MM to cover half of the remaining salary on David Price‘s contract. In this updated version of the deal, Alex Verdugo, minor league shortstop Jeter Downs, and catching prospect Connor Wong comprise the package heading to Boston. If we haven’t learned our lesson, the deal is pending medical reviews.
This trade will be accompanied by a separate agreement between the Dodgers and Twins that will send Kenta Maeda to Minnesota in exchange for right-hander Brusdar Graterol, with other pieces involved. Those players were involved in the first iteration of the megadeal, which is now two distinct trades between the same three teams. Notably, Graterol will now join the Dodgers, whereas he was previously destined for Boston.
The revised deal comes several days after the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Twins agreed in principle to a three-team trade of a similar complexion. That deal, of course, was held up by the Red Sox’ concerns over Graterol’s medical records. That saga reached a dramatic point yesterday, when the Twins’ pessimism about their end of the deal created a major roadblock in the path towards a completed trade.
Instead, the Red Sox get a pair of prospects along with their new starting right fielder in exchange for Betts while getting out from under half of the $96MM owed to David Price. Downs could be the heir apparent to Dustin Pedroia at second base. Connor Wong also slots into a position group of relatively weakness for the Red Sox’ system. With the financial savings, Boston should have no trouble accomplishing their goal of skirting the luxury tax as well.
Latest On Mookie Betts Trade Talks
1:40PM: Momentum towards a deal is building and there’s increased optimism that a trade—or trades—will take place, and there’s a chance that an announcement could come as early as today, according to Neal. The Twins and Dodgers are in direct discussions and Heyman reports that their part of the deal is “pretty set,” with Maeda heading to the Twins and Graterol going the other way. For what it’s worth, Neal adds that the Twins are now “expected to get a little more” than Maeda. If Heyman is correct, then the last remaining hurdle will be for the Dodgers to refine their package for Betts. Speculatively, that could involve Graterol being flipped to Boston, but the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier tweeted earlier that Graterol isn’t expected to be dealt to the Red Sox as part of any trade.
10:11AM: The Twins are indeed still involved in talks, though that doesn’t necessarily mean a three-team trade is happening, as Jon Heyman and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal explain (both links to Twitter). The Twins “are working hard to satisfy [the] Dodgers and the Dodgers are working hard to satisfy [the] Red Sox, ” Rosenthal writes, but negotiations could result in two separate trades. One deal between the Dodgers and Red Sox would send Verdugo and prospects to Boston and Betts and Price to L.A., and another swap between the Dodgers and Twins would see Maeda go to Minnesota and Graterol possibly be part of a trade package going to Los Angeles. As Heyman notes, “non-Boston docs seem to have no big issue with Graterol [medicals],” so the Dodgers might be satisfied in accepting the young righty in exchange for Maeda.
TODAY, 8:51AM: The involved parties are “hopeful” that a Betts trade can be worked out, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets, as there has been “progress” in talks. Notably, Heyman tagged the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Twins in his tweet, which could hint that a three-team arrangement is still possible.
FEBRUARY 8: The Twins’ portion of the proposed three-team trade that would send Mookie Betts to the Dodgers is in jeopardy, according to La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. Talks between the Twins, Dodgers, and Red Sox are ongoing and the current iteration of the trade is not entirely dead, according to reports from Joel Sherman of the New York Post and others, but the Twins have requested a prompt resolution one way or another. It seems there’s growing pessimism about the Twins’ involvement in the trade, so the Dodgers and Red Sox may have to explore alternative pathways towards its completion.
As part of the trade, the Twins were expected to send right-hander Brusdar Graterol to the Red Sox, receiving Kenta Maeda in return and allowing the Dodgers to acquire Betts and David Price. However, after the Red Sox balked at Graterol’s medical history with questions about his long-term role, they requested another prospect from the Twins and talks have stalled. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman suggests that the Twins have expressed a willingness to include one of their top-20 prospects to push the deal across the goal line, but even that hasn’t met the Red Sox’ heightened asking price.
If the Twins do indeed back out of the deal, the Dodgers and Red Sox could still try to complete the trade themselves or rope in a new third team to facilitate the mega-deal. For the time being, though, the prospect of a Betts trade appears to have hit a considerable setback. With the Red Sox’ insistence on acquiring another of the Twins’ top prospects and Minnesota’s reluctance to concede, little progress has been made since the deal was first reported on Tuesday and something will have to give if the trade is to be completed.
In its entirety, the trade would have sent Betts and David Price to the Dodgers, while Alex Verdugo and Graterol would wind up in Boston with Maeda joining the Twins. In addition, the Dodgers and Angels had agreed in principle to a separate trade that would send Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling to the crosstown Angels in exchange for Luis Rengifo and unidentified prospects. That deal, though, was contingent on the completion of the Dodgers/Red Sox/Twins swap and now itself appears in limbo.
Many around the game have voiced their frustration with the drama that has resulted from the Red Sox’ hesitation. MLBPA head Tony Clark, agent Scott Boras, and Angels owner Arte Moreno have all commented on the wide-ranging consequences of the delay. And with pitchers and catchers reporting to camp in the coming days, some of the players involved could be placed in awkward situation in which they would return to a team that has essential already agreed to trade them.
So while the Boston faithful may rejoice that their star outfielder remains with the team for the time being, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which Betts, or any of the players involved, reports to Spring Training with their original teams. That alone should provide ample impetus to finalize the trade in short order. Whether that means the Red Sox following through with the trade as originally agreed to, or the inclusion of another piece to appease Boston, we’ll have to wait and find out.
Blue Jays Designate Breyvic Valera For Assignment
The Blue Jays have designated infielder Breyvic Valera for assignment, as per a team announcement. The move creates a roster spot for right-hander Rafael Dolis, whose one-year deal (with a club option) with the Jays became official yesterday.
Valera appeared in five games for Toronto in late September, after the Jays plucked him off the Yankees’ roster via a waiver claim. With such veterans as Joe Panik and Ruben Tejada already lined up as utility infield options in Spring Training camp, Valera was likely deemed expendable. Should another team claim Valera during his latest trip through the DFA process, it will mark the sixth time in less than two years that Valera has switched uniforms.
Over 54 career Major League games since the start of the 2017 season, Valera has already played for five different teams — the Blue Jays, Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, and Cardinals, who originally signed him back in 2010. (Valera also had a brief stint in the Giants’ farm system last season.) The best-known of those transactions, by far, is Valera’s inclusion as part of the trade package sent from the Dodgers to Baltimore for Manny Machado in July 2018, though Valera was something of a throw-in rather than a key factor in the deal.
The 28-year-old Valera has only a .592 OPS over 138 plate appearances in the big leagues, but he has performed reasonably well at the minor league level, hitting .299/.360/.397 over 4099 PA. Valera has mostly worked as a second baseman, though since his best path to the Show is as a utility player, he also has quite a bit of experience around the diamond at every position besides catcher and pitcher.
Padres Acquire Emilio Pagan From Rays For Manuel Margot And Prospect Logan Driscoll
The San Diego Padres have acquired reliever Emilio Pagan from the Tampa Bay Rays. In exchange, they’re sending centerfielder Manuel Margot and prospect Logan Driscoll to Tampa Bay, per The Athletic’s Josh Tolentino (via Twitter). The deal is official, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio.
Both teams add strength to strength here. The Rays get an elite defensive centerfielder to back up one one of the league’s best in that department, while the Padres give their already-strong bullpen another weapon to lock down the ends of ballgames. Both teams, interestingly, are addressing an area with this trade to which they’ve already devoted resources this winter.
Turning to the players, Pagan departs one strong bullpen to join another in San Diego, where he’ll team up with incumbent closer Kirby Yates and 21-year-old flamethrower Andres Munoz. The Padres will be his fourth team in as many seasons after year-long stints with the Mariners, A’s, and Rays. Last season was his most successful to date, however, as he notched a 12.3 K/9 versus 1.7 BB/9 in his 70 innings as a Ray. San Diego seems to value his ability to retire both right and left-handed hitters, citing Pagan’s matching .179 BAA in their press release.
The Friars have dedicated quite a bit of resources to a bullpen that now looks like a genuine asset. They earlier re-signed Craig Stammen to a two-year, $9MM deal and convinced Drew Pomeranz to give San Diego a second go-round with a surprising four-year, $34MM commitment. The Padres also brought in former San Francisco Giant Pierce Johnson after a successful stint overseas.
Pagan’s one season in Tampa Bay came after being acquired from Oakland in the three-way deal that landed Jurickson Profar in Oakland and sent Brock Burke, Yoel Espinal, Kyle Bird, Eli White, and international draft pool money to the Rangers. The Rays also received a draft pick in that deal. Pagan served as the Rays de facto closer last season, notching 20 saves in 66 games with a 2.31 ERA/3.30 FIP.
For their part, Tampa adds an elite defensive centerfielder in Margot who may yet have another offensive gear in him as he nears his age-25 season. Margot hit an underwhelming .234/.304/.387 last year, in line with his career mark of .248/.301/.394 – but by just about any measure, Margot ranks among the game’s very best at traversing the centerfield grass. Last season, he scored 6 DRS, 5.8 UZR, and 11 Outs Above Average. Margot provides the Rays with defensive certainty up the middle should Kevin Kiermaier again struggle to stay healthy.
The Rays have made of a winter of adding outfielders by way of relatively surprising multi-player deals. Margot joins Hunter Renfroe as San Diego expats now based in Tampa. The Rays also dealt top pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore to St. Louis for Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena, who now figures to start the year in Triple-A. Austin Meadows, of course, remains on hand as an everyday player in the outfield.
For the Rays in particular, the move represents another somewhat disorienting instance of doubling down on a particular area. Their earlier trade for Martinez, who figures to spend much of his time at designated hitter, came shortly after the signing of Yoshi Tsutsugo, another prospective candidate to spend time at designated hitter.
Here again, the addition of Margot could be seen as an over-saturation of Tampa’s centerfield pool, where they’ve already added Arozarena. The Rays have reportedly been after Margot for some time, however, and though Kiermaier remains the unequivocal starter in center, they view Margot as an “impact defender,” per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
Driscoll was the 73rd overall pick of the Padres in the 2019 draft. His ability to play both catcher and outfield certainly marks him as a prospect of some intrigue. In 39 games at Low-A in 2019, Driscoll hit .268/.340/.458.