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Rangers Sign Hoby Milner

By Anthony Franco | December 20, 2024 at 4:05pm CDT

The Rangers announced the signing of lefty reliever Hoby Milner to a one-year contract. Texas designated former top prospect Owen White for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Milner, a client of MVP Sports Group, is reportedly guaranteed $2.5MM. He can earn another $500K in incentives — $100K each for reaching 35 and 45 appearances, followed by $150K bonuses at 55 and 65 games.

Milner is a Dallas native who attended the University of Texas. The former Longhorn began his career with the Phillies, who selected him in the seventh round of the 2012 draft. Milner had brief MLB stints with the Phillies, Rays and Angels before finding his way to Milwaukee on a minor league contract after the 2020 season.

The low-slot southpaw had a solid four years with the Brew Crew. He posted interesting strikeout and walk numbers in 2021, so the Brewers retained him despite a 5.40 earned run average. That was a wise call, as Milner was a key piece of Craig Counsell’s bullpen between 2022-23. He combined for a 2.79 ERA across 129 innings over that stretch. Only 30 relievers around the league logged a heavier workload. Milner fanned a solid 23.5% of opponents while limiting his walks to a 5.3% rate. His arm angle flummoxed left-handed hitters, who managed a .199/.259/.284 line across 223 plate appearances.

Milner’s results regressed in 2024. He was tagged for a 4.73 ERA while lefties had a markedly improved .286/.290/.467 slash over 109 trips to the plate. Yet Milner ran an impressive 27:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while he held the platoon advantage.

His peripherals more broadly remained strong. He punched out nearly 24% of batters faced and kept the ball on the ground more than half the time that opponents made contact. He tied his career high with 64 2/3 innings. The ERA jump was a result of a huge spike in opposing hitters’ average on balls in play, as well as a significant drop in the number of runners Milner left on base.

The Brewers nevertheless decided to move on instead of tendering him an arbitration contract at a projected $2.7MM salary. That worked out reasonably well for Milner, who finds a guaranteed contract at nearly the same rate with his hometown team for his age-34 season. It’s the second bullpen pickup for the Rangers in as many weeks. They added Jacob Webb, who had somewhat surprisingly been non-tendered by the Orioles, on a $1.25MM pact. GM Chris Young and his staff need to add multiple arms to a ’pen that could lose each of Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc and José Ureña to free agency. They’ll start with a pair of affordable veterans who can work in the middle innings.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first to report Milner was signing with Texas on a one-year deal. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported the $2.5MM guarantee. The Associated Press reported the incentive structure.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

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Texas Rangers Transactions Hoby Milner

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Phillies Sign Max Kepler

By Anthony Franco | December 20, 2024 at 3:26pm CDT

The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve signed outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year deal. It’s a reported $10MM deal for the VC Sports Group client. Philadelphia already had an opening on the 40-man roster.

Kepler changes uniforms for the first time in his career. The German-born outfielder had spent a decade and a half with the Minnesota organization. He signed with the Twins as a teenager and reached the big leagues late in the 2015 season. Kepler appeared in parts of 10 big league campaigns with Minnesota, stretching beyond the six-year control window after signing a $35MM extension in February 2019.

For most of that run, Kepler was an above-average right fielder. He looked as if he might on the cusp of stardom after a 36-homer showing in 2019, but that proved to be an outlier in a season that was played with the juiced ball. Outside of that year, Kepler has typically been a 15-20 homer threat with decent on-base skills.

Kepler, 32 in February, is coming off his least productive season. He battled injuries in both knees and only appeared in 105 games. Kepler was limited to a career-low eight home runs while posting a middling .253/.302/.380 line across 399 plate appearances. The free passes plummeted alongside the power. Kepler walked at a career-low 5.5% clip, posting his lowest on-base percentage in the process.

The Phillies are hoping that a healthy offseason could allow him to return to his prior form. Kepler had one of his best years as recently as 2023. He hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 longballs (the second most of his career) across 491 plate appearances that season. Kepler set personal highs in average exit velocity (91.9 MPH) and hard contact percentage (47.6%). His hard contact rate dropped by 11 points this year, suggesting that he was playing at less than full strength.

Much of Kepler’s diminished production came late in the season. He carried a league average .256/.309/.394 slash line into the All-Star Break. That dropped to .246/.287/.352 in the second half. The Twins resisted putting him on the IL for a while as they tried to hang onto a Wild Card berth, but his numbers tanked so far in August that he had to land on the shelf. Minnesota’s September collapse meant that he was unable to return for a possible postseason push.

While it ended on a down note, Kepler had a productive run in the Twin Cities. He appeared in more than 1000 games, hitting .237/.318/.429 with 161 homers and just over 500 runs batted in. There wasn’t much doubt that Minnesota would go in another direction this offseason, though. Ownership isn’t giving the front office much financial leeway, so an eight-figure contract to retain Kepler after an injury-plagued season was never in the cards.

At his peak, Kepler was one of the sport’s best defensive right fielders. If not for sharing the Target Field outfield with Byron Buxton, he probably would’ve gotten more consistent run in center field early in his career. Kepler’s defensive grades are still solid but not as strong as they’d been in his 20s. Defensive Runs Saved graded him as a league average right fielder in a little over 800 innings this past season. Statcast credited him with two runs above average.

Better health could help him rebound on defense as well. Kepler fell below league average in Statcast’s sprint speed measurement for the first time. That’s not a surprise considering he was playing through knee pain. On both sides of the ball, the Phillies are hoping that this year was a health-related blip rather than the sign of a sharp decline in his early 30s.

Kepler figures to play mostly left field at Citizens Bank Park. That’s a position he’s never played in the majors, though most right fielders can kick over to the opposite corner without much issue. Kepler hasn’t started a game in center field since 2021, so he’s probably no more than an emergency option there. Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh are each likelier to handle center field work.

While there shouldn’t be much issue about the positional transition, Kepler’s handedness makes him something of an odd fit. The Phils had sought to find a rotational outfielder who could cut into the playing time for Rojas and/or Marsh. A right-handed hitter would have been the most straightforward solution, allowing the Phils to shield Marsh from lefty pitching. Philadelphia hoped Austin Hays would address that as a deadline pickup, but he spent most of his tenure on the injured list and was non-tendered last month.

Kepler doesn’t fit that need. Like most left-handed hitters, he’s much better against righties. Kepler has a career .243/.326/.452 line versus right-handers. He’s a .221/.292/.363 hitter in more than 1000 plate appearances against southpaws. If the Phils are going to platoon Marsh, he’d probably pair with the righty-hitting Rojas in center field. That’d put the onus on Kepler to stay healthy enough to play regularly in left field.

Marsh could always move back to left if Kepler lands on the IL, yet that’d leave the Phillies with the same middling outfield upon which they’re trying to upgrade. They’d certainly love to offload the remaining two years and $40MM on the Nick Castellanos deal, which would enable them to put Kepler in right field and add another outfield bat. Shedding a notable chunk of the Castellanos money is much easier said than done after he hit .254/.311/.431 this year.

It seems the Phils preferred the price point on Kepler over the asking price for the top righty-hitting outfielders available. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that Philadelphia had shown interest in Teoscar Hernández but apparently balked at the ask. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier this week that Hernández was looking for a three-year deal exceeding $60MM.

Signing Kepler pushes the Phils’ salary commitments to roughly $280MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. They’re up to $299MM in competitive balance tax obligations. The Phils went into the offseason with their CBT number already into the third tier of penalization. They’ve paid the tax in three consecutive seasons, so they’re subject to the highest set of escalator surcharges. Their spending between $281MM and $301MM is taxed at a 95% clip, meaning they’re on the hook for $9.5MM in taxes on Kepler. This represents a near-$20MM overall commitment on ownership’s part.

Once they go beyond the $301MM mark, they’ll be taxed at the maximum 110% rate on further spending. The Phillies were a virtual lock to exceed the third tier regardless of whether they signed Kepler. That’ll drop their top draft choice in 2026 by ten spots (unless they miss the playoffs and draw into the top six in the lottery). Signing Kepler and Jordan Romano to one-year deals addresses two of their biggest questions on relatively affordable terms.

Todd Zolecki and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Kepler and the Phillies were progressing on a one-year contract. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed the agreement and reported the $10MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.

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Newsstand Philadelphia Phillies Transactions Max Kepler Teoscar Hernandez

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Rangers Designate Owen White For Assignment

By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2024 at 3:25pm CDT

The Rangers officially announced their signing of left-hander Hoby Milner today, which was reported earlier this week. Right-hander Owen White has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

White, 25, was one of the top pitching prospects in the league as of two years ago but his results have tailed off significantly since then. A second-round pick in the 2018 draft, White’s professional debut was delayed by 2019 Tommy John surgery and then the pandemic taking out the minor leagues in 2020. He quickly made up for lost time once he got back on the mound. Over 2021 and 2022, he tossed 115 2/3 innings in the minors with a 3.42 earned run average. He struck out 34.1% of batters faced while giving out walks just 7.5% of the time.

That strong performance made him a consensus top 100 prospect going into 2023. But as alluded to earlier, he’s been hit around badly since then. He has allowed 13 earned runs in his first seven big league innings, meaning he has an unsightly 16.71 ERA at the moment.

That’s obviously a tiny sample size but the results in the minors have been bad as well. White has thrown 151 1/3 innings for Triple-A Round Rock over the past two years with a 5.41 ERA. The Express play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League but his 17.4% strikeout rate and 11.7% walk rate for that club have both been subpar.

The Rangers tried moving White to a relief role midway through the most recent season, with some encouragement there. He tossed 18 innings over this final 13 Triple-A appearances with a 5.50 ERA. His 25.6% strikeout rate was a nice jump, but he was still giving out free passes at a high clip of 12.8%.

White is down to just one more option year at this point, so 2025 was shaping up to be a make-or-break sort of season. But with his declining numbers and a move to the bullpen, his prospect shine has worn off enough that he is being bumped off the roster today.

DFA limbo normally last one week, though recent years have seen that clock paused between Christmas and New Year’s Day. On this date last year, Ryan Jensen was designated for assignment by the Marlins and he wasn’t claimed off waivers by the Twins until January 4, over two weeks later.

That gives the Rangers some time to call around and see if there’s any trade interest for White. Obviously, the recent results have tamped down his value, but some club might take a shot based on his past prospect pedigree. With one option year remaining, he could be stashed in the minors by a club willing to give him a 40-man roster spot.

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Texas Rangers Transactions Hoby Milner Owen White

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Mets To Sign Anthony Gose, Luis Ortiz To Minor League Deals

By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2024 at 2:14pm CDT

The Mets have minor league deals in place with left-hander Anthony Gose and right-hander Luis Ortiz, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Both pitchers also receive invites to major league spring training.

Gose, 34, spent many years as a position player in the majors but didn’t find much success and converted to the mound. In that role, he has intrigued with some high velocity and strikeout potential but has also shown control issues.

He tossed 27 2/3 innings for the Guardians over 2021 and 2022, allowing 3.90 earned runs per nine. He averaged 97.6 miles per hour on his fastball and struck out 31.9% of batters faced but also gave out free passes at a 13.8% clip. Tommy John surgery wiped out his entire 2023 season. He returned to the mound in 2024 but only got into three big league games. He tossed 44 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level with a 3.22 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 14.1% walk rate.

Gose is clearly a bit of a project, despite his age. He’s only really been pitching for a few years and the big surgery layoff put things on pause for a while. A 34-year-old with ongoing control problems might be considered a lost cause but Gose is perhaps a special case due to his unusual trajectory. If he can harness his stuff a bit better, there’s intriguing potential there. He has less than four years of service time and can be retained beyond 2025 if he has a roster spot at season’s end, though he is out of options.

Ortiz, 29, is not to be confused with the Luis Ortiz who was recently traded from the Pirates to the Guardians. This Ortiz has pitched for the Orioles and Giants before spending the past two years with the Phillies. He has tossed 34 innings over five different MLB seasons with a 4.76 ERA, 16.3% strikeout rate, 10.5% walk rate and 48.6% ground ball rate.

He only made one big league appearance in 2024 and only five in the minors. He missed time due to ankle and shoulder injuries before undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. He will therefore miss most or perhaps all of the 2025 campaign. From 2021 to 2023, he tossed 155 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 4.58 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate. If he eventually gets a roster spot, he still has one option season and less than two years of service time.

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New York Mets Transactions Anthony Gose Luis Ortiz

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Reds, Bryan Shaw Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | December 20, 2024 at 1:37pm CDT

The Reds have agreed to a minor league deal with free agent reliever Bryan Shaw, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Shaw, a client of CAA, will reunite with former Cleveland skipper Terry Francona in Cincinnati and head to major league camp in spring training, where he’ll compete for a bullpen spot.

The 37-year-old Shaw has pitched in the majors in each of the past 14 seasons, albeit only for four innings with the 2024 White Sox. He spent roughly half that time pitching for Francona in Cleveland, where Shaw enjoyed a stretch as one of the American League’s most durable and effective setup men.

From 2013-17, Shaw piled up 358 1/3 innings of 3.11 ERA ball with a 22.5% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. He tallied a hefty 110 holds along the way — the third-most in all of Major League Baseball in that five-year span (trailing the since-retired Tony Watson and Tyler Clippard).

Shaw parlayed that run of excellence into a three-year deal with the Rockies, but as with so many pitchers at Coors Field, things didn’t pan out. Shaw posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each of his two seasons with Colorado before being cut loose. He had a brief cameo with the Mariners during the shortened 2020 campaign but didn’t pitch well there, either.

In the four years since, Shaw has had an up-and-down run but has been serviceable on the whole. He’s pitched 185 1/3 frames dating back to Opening Day 2021 and sports a 4.37 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate. He spent most of the 2024 season with the Angels’ Triple-A club, posting a 4.14 ERA in 41 1/3 innings.

The Reds have several bullpen spots already spoken for. Alexis Diaz, Fernando Cruz, Emilio Pagan, Sam Moll, Brent Suter and Tony Santillan are all likely to open the season on the active roster, health permitting. Roansy Contreras, claimed off waivers earlier this week, will need to make the Opening Day roster or else be traded or passed through waivers prior to Opening Day. Cincinnati will likely make some additional non-roster pickups at the very least, but Shaw is a clear favorite of Francona’s, which could give him an inside track on a bullpen job if he shows well during spring training.

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Cincinnati Reds Transactions Bryan Shaw

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Orioles Re-Sign Matt Bowman To Minor League Deal

By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2024 at 1:06pm CDT

The Orioles have re-signed right-hander Matt Bowman to a minor league deal with an invite to big league spring training, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The righty will make $1.1MM if in the majors and will also have the chance to unlock incentives valued at $400K.

Bowman, 34 in May, just finished a nomadic season. He pitched for four clubs this year: the Twins, Diamondbacks, Mariners and Orioles, with Baltimore being his final stop. He signed a minor league deal with the O’s in August and was added to the roster shortly thereafter. He tossed 15 1/3 innings with Baltimore down the stretch, allowing 3.45 earned runs per nine. The O’s outrighted him off the roster at season’s end and Bowman elected free agency.

When combined with his other stops, he tallied 30 2/3 innings on the year with a 4.40 ERA, 18.2% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate. Keeping the ball on the ground has been Bowman’s best attribute in his career. Dating back to his 2016 debut, he has 216 big league innings with a 4.17 ERA. His 19% strikeout rate is a bit below average but his 8.3% walk rate is fine and he has kept the ball on the ground at a 54.6% clip.

The bulk of that came work from 2016 to 2019, before Bowman missed the 2020 to 2022 seasons due to injuries, with rehab from Tommy John surgery being the main culprit. He was healthy in 2023 but spent most of the year in Triple-A, getting into just three big league contests. As mentioned, he bounced around quite a bit this year but managed to get his largest chunk of big league work in quite a while.

He’ll give the O’s a bit of non-roster depth for their relief group. If he gets added to the roster at any point, he’ll make a salary a bit above league minimum, which will be $760K next year. He is out of options, which is part of the reason why he bounced around so much this past season. He has less than five years of service time, so he can theoretically be retained for 2026 via arbitration if he has a roster spot at season’s end.

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Baltimore Orioles Transactions Matt Bowman

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Braves Acquire Davis Daniel

By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2024 at 12:30pm CDT

The Braves have acquired right-hander Davis Daniel from the Angels, per announcements from both clubs. The Halos designated Daniel for assignment earlier this week. Left-hander Mitch Farris heads the other way.

Daniel, 28 in June, has a small amount of major league experience thus far. Between last year and this year, he has tossed 42 2/3 innings for the Angels, allowing 5.06 earned runs per nine. His 8.1% walk rate is right around average but his 19.9% strikeout rate and 39.1% ground ball rate are both a few ticks worse than par.

Atlanta is probably more interested in the Triple-A season that Daniel just had. He made 21 starts and one relief appearance at the Sale Lake Bees, logging 118 innings. His 5.42 ERA in that time is obviously not impressive, but the Bees play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Daniel struck out 23.3% of batters faced and only gave out walks at a 6.5% clip. His 4.41 FIP was almost exactly a run better than his ERA.

Daniel still has an option remaining, so he can give Atlanta a bit of extra rotation depth without taking up an active roster spot. Atlanta projects to have a rotation fronted by Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach. They will eventually get Spencer Strider back into that mix at some point, once he’s recovered from his April internal brace surgery. Until then, options for the back end include Grant Holmes, Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder and others. Daniel will jump into that group, who will presumably battle each other for positions on the depth chart.

Farris, 24 in February, was selected by Atlanta in the 14th round of the 2023 draft. Since then, he has thrown 124 2/3 innings over 21 starts and nine relief appearances in the minors. In that time, he has a 2.96 ERA, 30% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate. He spent most of 2024 at High-A and will backfill some of the pitching depth that the Angels just lost by cutting Daniel from the roster. Farris isn’t Rule 5 eligible until December of 2026, so he won’t need a roster spot for quite a while.

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Atlanta Braves Los Angeles Angels Transactions Davis Daniel

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Nick Nelson Signs With NPB’s Hanshin Tigers

By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2024 at 10:05am CDT

Right-hander Nick Nelson has signed with the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per an announcement from Beverly Hills Sports Council, his agency. It’s a one-year deal worth $1MM plus incentives. Phillies Tailgate reported last week that the two sides were in negotiations.

Nelson, 29, pitched in each of the past five major league seasons but without sustained success. He logged 114 1/3 innings for the Yankees and Phillies, allowing 5.20 earned runs per nine. His 23.1% strikeout rate and 42.6% ground ball rate were both close to average but he gave out walks at a high rate of 12.9%.

As is often the case with players heading overseas, the minor league numbers are a bit more interesting. A starter for most of his minor league career, he worked primarily in relief in 2021. He tossed 52 Triple-A innings that year with a 3.81 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, 12.3% walk rate and 53.6% ground ball rate.

In 2022, he was kept in the majors, tossing 68 2/3 innings with a 4.85 ERA. The Phils tried stretching him out in 2023, which didn’t go especially well. He made 20 Triple-A starts but with a 4.35 ERA, 17.7% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 49.3% ground ball rate. A return to a primary relief role in 2024 didn’t immediately get him back on track, as he threw 54 1/3 Triple-A innings this year with a 6.13 ERA, 18% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate and 41.6% ground ball rate.

Nelson exhausted his final option year in 2024. The Phillies outrighted him off their 40-man twice late in the year, once in August and once in September. He didn’t have a roster spot at season’s end and elected free agency.

Had he stayed in North America for the 2025 season, he likely would have been looking at minor league deals, having to fight for a roster spot. By heading to Japan and joining the Tigers, he locks in a nice payday above the MLB league minimum, which will be $760K next year. If he takes advantage of his new opportunity, he could parlay that into a raise with the Tigers or perhaps attempt a return to North American ball down the line, following the path of guys like Miles Mikolas and Colin Rea.

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Nippon Professional Baseball Transactions Nick Nelson

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Orioles, Jordyn Adams Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | December 20, 2024 at 8:55am CDT

The Orioles and outfielder Jordyn Adams are in agreement on a minor league contract, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The CAA client and former top prospect will head to major league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.

Adams, who turned 25 in October, was selected by the Angels with the No. 17 overall draft pick back in 2018. At the time, he was viewed as one of the best athletes in the entire draft class — a two-sport high school star who’d committed to play both football (as a wide receiver) and baseball at North Carolina. Pre-draft scouting reports touted Adams’ 80-grade speed (on the 20-80 scale) and a projectable frame that carried the potential to grow into more power.

While the speed has been on full display in the minors throughout his career — he’s gone 144-for-176 (82%) in stolen base attempts — Adams has yet to hit much at any stop. He’s a career .252/.333/.377 hitter in 2425 minor league plate appearances and, in 78 big league trips to the plate, mustered only a .176/.205/.216 slash with a 35.9% strikeout rate.

The speed is legitimate, as Statcast ranked him in the 98th percentile of big leaguers with a blazing sprint speed of 29.7 ft/sec. Even as he tumbled down the Angels’ prospect rankings at Baseball America, from No. 3 in 2020 to No. 23 this past season, BA called him a plus defender in center who “tracks fly-balls like a wide receiver” while showing elite closing speed.

In almost every other sense of the word, Adams is a project for the Orioles. However, he’s heading into only his age-25 season. He’s also joining an Orioles organization that has been far more successful than the Angels (and than most of the league, for that matter) when it comes to developing young position players. Adams may not ever be a star, but if the O’s can coax a bit more out of his bat, his speed and defense give him a path to at least being a viable fourth outfielder. Encouragingly, the righty-hitting speedster does have an OPS well north of .800 against lefties over the past three seasons in the minors.

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Baltimore Orioles Transactions Jordyn Adams

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Nationals Sign Michael Soroka

By Darragh McDonald | December 19, 2024 at 11:58pm CDT

The Nationals announced that they have signed right-hander Michael Soroka to a one-year deal, which reportedly comes with a $9MM salary. The club had 40-man vacancies and didn’t need to make a corresponding move. The ISE Baseball client will reportedly be used as a starter.

Soroka, 27, came into the offseason as one of the more interesting free agents available. He found success as a starting pitcher in his early 20s, back in 2019, but missed most of the 2020 to 2023 seasons due to injuries. In 2024, he struggled badly as a starter but then got moved to a bullpen role and finished the season in very strong fashion. It could have been argued that he earned himself another shot at a rotation job or that he found a role that worked for him and should continue as a reliever, though it seems he will take another shot at being a starter next year.

Prior to his 2019 breakout, Soroka was already a name to watch. He was a first-round pick of Atlanta in 2015 and found himself on top 100 prospect lists as he climbed through the minors. He debuted with five starts in 2018 and then fully cemented himself as a big leaguer in 2019, making 29 starts and logging 174 2/3 innings while allowing 2.68 earned runs per nine. His 20.3% strikeout rate was just below average but his 5.8% walk rate and 51.2% ground ball rate were both notably better than par.

That was Soroka’s age-21 season, so it seemed Atlanta had a rotation building block for years to come. Unfortunately, the baseball gods had a miserable fate in store for Soroka’s next chapter. In his third start of the shortened 2020 season, he had to be helped off the field with a leg injury, later revealed to be a torn right achilles tendon which required surgery. In 2021, he missed some time due to shoulder inflammation and later required another surgery on his achilles. He got back on the mound in 2022 and pitched in the minors, though that season was ended due to elbow soreness. In 2023, he was frequently shuttled between Triple-A and the majors and finished the season on the IL due to forearm inflammation.

After those four years in the injury wilderness, Atlanta seemingly didn’t have much faith in Soroka bouncing back. He was flipped to the White Sox in November, part of a five-for-one trade that saw Atlanta flip multiple spare parts for Aaron Bummer in a roster clearout move.

Unlike Atlanta, Chicago was aggressively rebuilding and had more bandwidth for being patient with Soroka, hoping for a bounceback. It didn’t materialize at first. Soroka started the season with nine starts but had a 6.39 ERA in those. His 46.9% grounder rate was strong but his matching strikeout and walk rates of 12.4% were both bad.

The last of those starts was on May 12. Soroka was moved to the bullpen at that point, which is when things became very interesting. He tossed 36 innings out of the bullpen in the remainder of the season with a 2.75 ERA. His 13% walk rate was oddly high and his grounder rate was just 26.5% but he managed to punch out 39% of batter’s faced.

That came with a significant change in his pitch mix. In those nine starts, he threw 22.5% four-seamers, 30.8% sinkers, 31.9% sliders and 14.7% changeups. After moving to the bullpen, he pushed towards a fastball/slider mix, with 43.2% of his pitches being the former and 41.6% the latter. His sinker and changeup rates dropped to 10.9% and 4.3%, respectively. Despite limiting his arsenal, he was effective against hitters on both sides of the plate. Righties hit just .197/.306/.296 against Soroka the reliever while lefties mustered only a .179/.299/.286 line.

Given the amount of success he had in that relief role, it might be tempting to suggest that he should stay there, but there are also counterarguments. For one thing, despite the many twists and turns in his career, Soroka is still young. He is currently 27 and won’t turn 28 until August. He might not want to give up on the possibility of being a starter just yet.

Furthermore, teams these days don’t tend to view relief success as any kind of reason to not try a guy in a starting role. In recent years, bullpen-to-rotation conversions have become all the rage, with guys like Seth Lugo, Michael King, Garrett Crochet, Reynaldo López, Jeffrey Springs and others making the move successfully. It doesn’t always work out, with A.J. Puk being one example, but even then the downside is pretty harmless as the pitcher just lands as a viable reliever as a fallback.

The Nats should be able to give Soroka a chance to earn a rotation job, at least for a while. They have some intriguing arms but most of them are fairly lacking in experience. The quartet of MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz all had decent results in 2024, with each posting an ERA of 4.41 or lower. However, Gore’s 372 2/3 career innings are the most of the bunch. Irvin is at 308 while Parker and Herz just debuted in 2024 and are below 200. Josiah Gray had UCL surgery in July and won’t be a factor until late in the 2025 season, if at all. Cade Cavalli missed all of 2023 and 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery and it’s unknown what kind of workload he can take on next year.

Washington can give Soroka a rotation gig to start the year and see how things go. If he struggles out of the gate, they can push him to the bullpen and give those starts to one of the younger pitchers. But if things go well, he can be very valuable for the Nats. If they are able to emerge from their ongoing rebuild, he can be a part of that, but he could be a midseason trade candidate even if the club isn’t ready for that step yet. Even if he’s pushed to a relief role, he could still be an interesting deadline trade candidate.

It’s also theoretically possible that he pitches his way into consideration for a qualifying offer at season’s end, as even mid-rotation or back-end guys like Nick Pivetta, Luis Severino and Nick Martinez got QOs this year. In that scenario, Soroka could stay with the Nats all year and help them make a contending push while also providing some future value at the end of the year, though that will be a concern for another day.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Soroka for a two-year deal worth $14MM. He has settled for a lesser guarantee but on a stronger annual value, with the chance to return to the open market a year from now. For him personally, that could be a lucrative bet, as it’s possible he will have much more earning power at the end of the 2025 season.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the Nats and Soroka were in agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided reported that it was a one-year deal worth $9MM.

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