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Phil Bickford Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Mets

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Reliever Phil Bickford won his arbitration hearing against the Mets, as first reported by Joel Sherman of the New York Post (X link). His camp at ET Sports successfully argued for a $900K salary; the team had filed at $815K.

New York acquired Bickford in a minor deadline trade with the Dodgers. He threw 25 1/3 innings down the stretch, working to a 4.62 ERA. The former first-round pick fanned around a quarter of opponents against an elevated 11.4% walk rate. Those were similar strikeout and walk marks as he managed in Los Angeles. He finished the year with a 4.95 mark over a career-high 67 1/3 innings.

The 28-year-old Bickford has topped 50 innings in three consecutive seasons. After working to a 2.81 ERA for the Brewers in 2021, he has allowed nearly five earned runs per nine in each of the past two years. The Mets nevertheless tendered him a contract even as they’ve brought in various relievers this offseason. Bickford is out of options, so they’ll need to keep him in the big league bullpen or put him on waivers.

Rockies To Sign Bradley Zimmer To Minor League Deal

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Outfielder Bradley Zimmer and the Rockies are in agreement on a minor league deal, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The ISE Baseball client will also receive an invite to major league Spring Training.

Zimmer, now 31, was once a first-round draft pick and top 100 prospect, with evaluators noting his potential to be a true five-tool talent. He has gone on to provide excellent speed and defense but he developed a strikeout problem as he climbed the minor league ladder that has prevented him from being a valuable contributor at the plate.

To this point in his career, he has 975 plate appearances at the major league level and has been punched out in 33.9% of them. That’s well beyond the league average, which was 22.7% in 2023. Zimmer’s 7.8% walk rate is also subpar, though only slightly. His combined batting line of .213/.298/.333 translates to a wRC+ of 74, or 26% below league average.

But the other parts of his game have generally lived up to the hype. He has 42 steals in 50 tries, with his sprint speed usually ranking near the top of league leaderboards. On defense, he has played all three outfield spots and racked up 14 Outs Above Average, 15 Defensive Runs Saved and a grade of 7.8 from Ultimate Zone Rating.

Those are some nice qualities, but the hitting problems have prevented him from carving out a meaningful role in the bigs. He was drafted by Cleveland and spent the first few years of his career with them, until he had exhausted his option years after 2021. He led to him bouncing around in 2022, getting traded to the Blue Jays, before being claimed off waivers by the Phillies and then going back to the Jays on another waiver claim.

He was non-tendered by the Jays and signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers for 2023. He was released in mid-May and signed another minors pact, this one with the Red Sox. Between those two organizations, he put up a batting line of .210/.326/.346 at the Triple-A level last year while striking out in 37.3% of his trips to the plate.

Despite his warts, Zimmer is a solid fit for the Rockies. It has been reported this offseason that they are looking for a left-handed hitting outfielder who can play all three outfield slots, which would apply to Zimmer. With Charlie Blackmon likely to be in the designated hitter slot most of the time, the club’s remaining outfield mix leans right-handed. Nolan Jones is left-handed but Kris Bryant, Hunter Goodman, Brenton Doyle and Sean Bouchard are all righties. Michael Toglia is a switch-hitter but hasn’t clicked in the big leagues yet and still has options.

Bryant is likely ticketed for regular work at first base this year, leaving two spots available next to Jones for that group. Doyle is fairly similar to Zimmer, in that he’s an elite defender and runner but has big strikeout issues. He received 431 plate appearances in the big leagues last year but was punched out in 35% of them while slashing just .203/.250/.343. He stole 22 bases and received excellent grades for his glovework but the offense is clearly a work in progress, and his Double-A and Triple-A strikeout rates are also above 30%.

As for the others, Goodman hit just .200/.247/.386 in his first 77 MLB plate appearances. He has hit well in the minors but is considered a poor defender who may end up at first base in the long term. Bouchard has some decent offensive numbers but missed most of last season due to injury, is considered a poor defender and is now about to turn 28 years old.

With neither of Goodman or Bouchard considered assets in the field, it would make sense to have Zimmer on hand as a late-game defensive replacement or pinch runner. His left-handed bat also could create some platoon opportunities, but he’s still not great at the plate even with the platoon advantage. He’s hit righties for a .216/.305/.350 line and 80 wRC+ in his career, compared to .204/.276/.285 and a wRC+ of 56 against southpaws.

Mariners Claim Collin Snider From Diamondbacks

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The Mariners have claimed right-hander Collin Snider off waivers from the Diamondbacks, per announcements from both clubs. The latter had designated him for assignment last week. The Mariners’ 40-man roster is now full with this move.

Snider, 28, spent his entire career with the Royals until recently. Drafted in 2018, he appeared in 62 major league games over the two most recent seasons. He tossed a combined 54 2/3 innings while allowing 5.93 earned runs per nine. His rate stats weren’t especially impressive, striking out just 13.4% of hitters while giving out walks at an 11.4% clip, though he did get grounders on 51.9% of balls in play.

In the minors, his results have been somewhat similar. He’s thrown 64 1/3 innings at Triple-A over the past two years with a 5.74 ERA, 18.3% strikeout rate, 15.7% walk rate and grounders on more than half of the balls in play.

He was put on waivers in December with the Diamondbacks making a claim, though he was nudged off the roster with the Snakes signed Joc Pederson and needed a roster spot. The Mariners recently freed up a spot on their 40-man roster when they traded Prelander Berroa, Zach DeLoach and a draft pick to the White Sox for Gregory Santos.

They’ll use that open slot to take a flier on Snider, who still has one option and can be stashed in the minors until needed. He has mid-90s velocity on both his four-seamer and sinker, even if he hasn’t yet parlayed those into many strikeouts. He has got plenty of ground balls and he did well at limiting hard contact in the big leagues last year. The Mariners could have him as Triple-A depth to see if he takes a step forward, or perhaps try to pass him through waivers at a future date.

The M’s have Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash and Santos likely taking their high-leverage bullpen jobs. Trent Thornton, Austin Voth and Mauricio Llovera are each out of options, which could help them in securing jobs to start the season. Beyond that, Snider joins a group of optionable relievers that includes Gabe Speier, Tayler Saucedo, Jackson Kowar, Ty Adcock, Carlos Vargas, Eduard Bazardo and Cody Bolton. Some of those guys may earn jobs out of camp but there will likely be a lot of fluctuation throughout the campaign.

Twins Outright Ryan Jensen

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Right-hander Ryan Jensen went unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment by the Twins, tweets Dan Hayes of The Athletic. He’ll remain in the organization but has been sent outright to Triple-A St. Paul and is no longer on the 40-man roster. Jensen will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.

The Twins have to be pleased with the manner in which the Jensen sequence played out. Minnesota claimed the former first-rounder off waivers from Miami last month but designated him for assignment last week in order to claim another righty reliever who’d been DFA’ed: Daniel Duarte. Jensen had bounced from the Cubs to the Mariners to the Marlins via waivers since his original DFA back in August, but the Twins succeeded in passing him through waivers and will now be able to retain him as Triple-A depth.

Now 26 years old, Jensen was the No. 27 overall pick in the 2019 draft. In 2023, he split the year between Double-A and Triple-A, working to a combined 5.32 earned run average in 64 1/3 innings of work. He operated primarily out of the bullpen, his first season doing so after spending the first few years of his career as a starting pitcher. He sports an overall 4.42 ERA with an above-average 26% strikeout rate and ugly 14.5% walk rate in his minor league career.

Jensen has a mid-90s heater, plus ground-ball rates, above-average strikeout rates and a pair of minor league options remaining. If the Twins can get him to rein in his command troubles, he has the makings of a quality reliever, but that’s a significant “if” based on how his career has panned out thus far.

Taylor Ward Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Angels

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Outfielder Taylor Ward has won his arbitration hearing against the Angels and will earn the $4.8MM salary figure he submitted for the 2024 season rather than the team’s $4.3MM figure, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Ward is represented by Wasserman.

Ward, now 30, was a first-round pick of the Angels back in 2015 but it took him a while to establish himself at the big league level. By the end of the 2020 season, he had appeared in 94 games scattered across three different campaigns, hitting .214/.283/.351 in that time. In 2021, he showed some positive momentum, hitting eight home runs in 65 games at the big league level and slashing .250/.332/.438 for a wRC+ of 110.

That earned him some regular run in 2022 and he initially made the most of it, seeming like one of the best hitters on the planet for a time. Through May 20, he had hit nine home runs in 131 plate appearances and was slashing .370/.481/.713 for a wRC+ of 235. But it was at that time that he suffered a “stinger” in a wall collision and his performance dipped, though he still finished the season at .281/.360/.473 line for a wRC+ of 137.

Last year, he was performing at a solid level, though beneath his breakout 2022 season. He was hitting .253/.335/.421 for a wRC+ of 107 when, in late July, he was hit in the face by a pitch from Alek Manoah of the Blue Jays. Ward suffered facial fractures and required a trip to the injured list, from which he was not able to return, undergoing surgery while away.

He first qualified for arbitration after 2022 as a Super Two player. He and the Halos avoided arb by agreeing to a $2.75MM salary for the 2023 season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Ward for a bump to $4.5MM in 2024. The two sides couldn’t come to an agreement prior to the filing deadline and ended up submitting numbers pretty close to that projection, just a few hundred thousand on either side. But the arbiters aren’t allow to pick a middle ground and decided to go with the number from Ward’s camp, giving him the slightly higher raise.

Ward will be eligible for two more passes through the arb system before he’s slated for free agency after 2026. The Angels had two arb cases this year but it was reported last week that they defeated left-hander José Suarez. With Ward’s case now complete, their arb class is fully settled.

Austin Hays Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Orioles

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Outfielder Austin Hays has won his arbitration hearing against the Orioles, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll earn the $6.3MM figure his camp submitted this coming season rather than the $5.85MM salary for which the team filed. Hays is represented by the MAS+ Agency.

Hays, 28, has been a part of the Orioles’ organization since being drafted in 2016. He received a few proverbial cups of coffee to start his major league career but has established himself as a solid regular in the past three years. Going back to the start of the 2021 campaign, he’s appeared in 420 games for the O’s. His 6% walk rate is subpar but he’s limited strikeouts to a 21.6% clip while hitting 54 home runs. His combined .261/.313/.439 batting line translates to a wRC+ of 108, indicating he’s been 8% better than the league average hitter.

Defensively, Hays is a capable center fielder but doesn’t get to play there often thanks to the presence of Cedric Mullins. Most of his work has come in left field, where Outs Above Average is not too fond of his work, but Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved both consider him to be strong there. FanGraphs has considered him to be worth about two wins above replacement annually in that time, though Baseball Reference is a bit more bullish, with the latter using DRS as opposed to OAA.

He first qualified for arbitration last winter, with he and he club avoiding arb by agreeing to a salary of $3.2MM. Going into this winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a bump to $6.1MM in 2024. He and the club couldn’t agree prior to the filing deadline and both sides submitted figures pretty close to that projection. In the end, the arbiters sided with the player’s camp, so he’ll get a slightly higher bump.

He’ll be eligible for arbitration again in 2025 before he’s slated for free agency. It’s possible that the club’s outfield picture will change a lot between now and then. Anthony Santander is in his final season before hitting the open market, but the club’s loaded farm system has already seen young players like Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Kyle Stowers make their major league debuts. Mullins is on the same arb schedule as Hays, slated for one more pass before free agency after 2025.

The O’s initially had five players without an agreement in place after the filing deadline, though they later avoided arbitration with Danny Coulombe and Cionel Pérez. Now that the Hays case is solved, they have two more decisions to come on Ryan O’Hearn and Jacob Webb. O’Heard filed at $3.8MM and the club at $3.2MM while Webb filed at $2.4MM to the club’s $2.2MM.

Phillies Acquire Michael Rucker, Designate Andrew Bellatti For Assignment

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The Phillies announced Tuesday they’ve acquired reliever Michael Rucker from the Cubs in exchange for cash. He’d been designated for assignment by Chicago last week. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, the Phillies designated fellow right-hander Andrew Bellatti for assignment.

Rucker, who turns 30 in April, changes organizations for the first time. The BYU product had been a member of the Cubs since they selected him in the 11th round of the 2016 draft. After a couple seasons as a starter in the minors, he converted to relief by the 2019 campaign. Lofty strikeout tallies in the upper minors in 2019 and ’21 earned him a major league look midway through the 2021 season.

The right-hander has pitched at the MLB level in each of the past three years. He has allowed just under five earned runs per nine through 123 1/3 big league innings. Rucker allowed a near-7.00 ERA as a rookie before turning in a decent 3.95 mark across a personal-high 54 1/3 frames in 2022. Things skewed back in the wrong direction last year, as he was tagged for a 4.91 figure over 40 1/3 innings.

That led the Cubs to squeeze him off the roster when they signed veteran reliever (and former Phillie) Héctor Neris to a one-year deal. Rucker’s arm strength and reasonable peripheral numbers led Philadelphia to take a low-cost look. Rucker has punched out between 21% and 24% of opponents in each of his MLB seasons. He generated ground-balls at a personal-high 51.8% clip a year ago, although he also walked nearly 11% of batters faced. Rucker’s fastball averages just under 95 MPH and he showed some swing-and-miss upside with each of his slider and cutter last season.

Rucker also has a minor league option remaining, so the Phils can keep him at Triple-A Lehigh Valley for another season. That’s not true of Bellatti, whom he replaces on the 40-man roster. Bellatti looked like an excellent find for Philadelphia on a minor league contract heading into 2022, when he turned in a 3.31 ERA over 54 1/3 innings. He didn’t find the same level of success last year, pitching to a 5.11 mark through 24 2/3 big league frames.

The 32-year-old Bellatti posted strong results while in Triple-A a year ago. He worked to a 2.42 ERA with an above-average 25.7% strikeout percentage in 27 appearances with Lehigh Valley. The Phillies have a week to trade him or place him on waivers. Bellatti has been outrighted multiple times in his career, so he’d have the ability to elect free agency if he goes unclaimed in the coming days.

Mauricio Dubon Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Astros

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Utilityman Mauricio Dubón has won an arbitration hearing against the Astros, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC-2 in Houston. The Astros will pay the $3.5MM salary figure submitted by Dubón and his representatives at ALIGND Sports, as opposed to the $3MM sum the team had filed.

Dubón is coming off the best season of his career. He played in a personal-high 132 games and tallied almost 500 plate appearances. Dubón turned in league average results offensively, hitting .278/.309/.411 while getting into the double digits in home runs for the first time. As he has throughout his career, he consistently put the ball in play while playing essneitlaly anywhere on the diamond. Dubón struck out in fewer than 15% of his plate appearances and started multiple games at each of first base, second base, shortstop, left field and center field.

The right-handed hitter filled in effectively at the keystone early in the year when Jose Altuve was on the injured list. He moved back to his traditional utility role as the season progressed. Dubón doesn’t project as a starter at any individual position in a strong Houston lineup, but his defensive flexibility means he’ll log semi-regular playing time around the diamond.

This was his second of four trips through the arbitration process. Dubón qualified for early arbitration last winter as a Super Two player, agreeing to a $1.4MM salary for 2023. He earns a raise of more than $2MM this time and will go through the process twice more. Dubón won’t be eligible for free agency until the 2026-27 offseason, at which point he’ll be entering his age-32 campaign.

Dubón was Houston’s only arbitration-eligible player who didn’t agree to terms this offseason. Finalizing his salary pushes their 2024 payroll commitments to roughly $240MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re up to nearly $255MM in competitive balance tax obligations, just $2MM below the second penalization tier. It’s easily the highest payroll projection in franchise history as Houston pushes for another AL West triumph. With each of Dubón, Taylor Ward and Austin Hays being announced as the winners of their hearings this morning, players have been victorious in three of the first five arbitration cases.

Royals Sign Bobby Witt Jr. To 11-Year Extension

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The Royals are retaining their franchise shortstop well into the next decade. Kansas City announced the signing of Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year extension on Monday afternoon. The Octagon client is reportedly guaranteed nearly $288.78MM on the largest contract in team history. Witt has multiple chances to opt out of the deal, as he’ll be able to test free agency after the 2030, ’31, ’32 and ’33 seasons. If he doesn’t exercise any of those opt-out clauses, the Royals would receive a three-year team option after the ’34 campaign. That’s an $89MM provision covering the 2035-37 seasons, bringing the deal’s maximum value to $377MM over 14 years. Witt has a full no-trade clause.

Witt receives a $7.777777MM signing bonus. The salaries break down as follows:

  • 2024: $2MM
  • 2025: $7MM
  • 2026: $13MM
  • 2027: $19MM
  • 2028: $30MM
  • 2029-34: $35MM annually
  • 2035: $33MM
  • 2036-37: $28MM annually

It’s a stunning deal that more than triples the previous franchise-record, which was the $82MM extension signed by Salvador Pérez in March of 2021. It was reported back in November that Witt and the club had engaged in some preliminary talks but it would have been fair for fans to be skeptical of anything getting done. The club’s payroll has never been higher than 15th in the league in recent years, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, making it hard to predict them for any kind of mega deal.

Witt is still fairly early in his career, having just two years of service time and not yet qualifying for arbitration. But even pre-arb deals for superstar players have grown to a massive scale in recent years. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that the Brewers gave Jackson Chourio $82MM before he even reached the majors. Players like Julio Rodríguez and Corbin Carroll got to $210MM and $111MM, respectively, before even getting to one year of service time. Witt has exactly two years of service, having cracked the club’s Opening Day roster in 2022. The apex for players between two and three years of MLB service is the 14-year, $340MM extension between the Padres and Fernando Tatis Jr.

Given those escalating prices and the typical low-spending ways of the Royals, it was difficult to see the two sides coming together and getting a deal done. But the Royals have extended well beyond their comfort zone, shattering their previous franchise record. For Witt, he didn’t quite get the same guarantee as Tatis but he could end up earning more than him via that option. The opt-outs also give him extra earning power, either by allowing him to test the open market or by leveraging those opt-outs into future contract talks with the Royals.

The fact that the Royals were willing to go to such extreme lengths is a reflection of Witt’s incredible talents as a player. The second overall pick in the 2019 draft, behind only Adley Rutschman of the Orioles, Witt showed his potential with a solid rookie showing in 2022. As mentioned, he cracked the club’s Opening Day roster, and eventually appeared in 150 games that year. His 4.7% walk rate was on the low side, but he limited his strikeouts to a 21.4% clip while launching 20 home runs. His .254/.294/.428 line was just a bit below average, wRC+ of 98. He also stole 30 bases, though his glovework wasn’t highly rated, split between shortstop and third base.

Last year, he took steps forward in just about every respect of his game. He decreased his strikeout rate to 17.4% while bumping his walk rate slightly to 5.8%. His home run tally jumped from 20 to 30 and he increased his steal tally to 49. His .276/.319/.495 batting line led to a wRC+ of 115, indicating he was 15% better than league average at the plate.

On the defensive side of things, he stayed at shortstop all year and seemed to cement himself as a viable franchise cornerstone there. Defensive Runs Saved wasn’t too enthused, giving him a grade of -6, but that was still an upgrade over the -18 he was tagged with at shortstop the year before. But Ultimate Zone Rating gave him a positive grade of 3.2 in 2023 while his tally of 14 Outs Above Average was one of the best in the league. Only Dansby Swanson, Willy Adames and Ezequiel Tovar racked up more OAA among shortstops last year.

That combination of offense, speed and defense makes him one of the most exciting and valuable players in the league. His 5.7 wins above replacement via FanGraphs was 11th among all position players last year and he finished seventh in American League Most Valuable Player voting.

It’s been a rough few years for the Royals, as they just lost 106 games last year and haven’t been above .500 since 2015. But it seems there has been a concerted effort this winter to give the fans more reasons to be excited. The club has given significant deals to free agents like Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier, Will Smith and Chris Stratton in an effort to improve the club’s chances in 2024. Witt was already on the roster and this deal won’t alter the club’s fortunes in 2024, but it does send a strong message that they are willing to commit to a player they feel can be the face of the franchise for years to come.

Owner John Sherman only purchased the team towards the end of 2019 and things have been fairly dreary for the franchise since then, as they have struggled to emerge from a lengthy rebuild. But the club has been trying to secure government funding for a new stadium and perhaps this offseason’s spending is an attempt to build some good will between ownership and a fanbase that hasn’t had much to cheer about lately.

Regardless of the motives, it’s a massive deal and surely an exciting one for the supporters. Witt is one of the most talented players in the league and he’ll now be locked into the Kansas City lineup for the foreseeable future. His first opt-out chance will come after 2030, which will be his age-30 campaign. At that point, he’ll be deciding whether to stick around or leave four years and $140MM on the table to become a free agent. Assuming he continues to perform at a superstar level, that would be a fairly easy decision. He could likely double that even with today’s dollars and seven years of inflation would only help him. But it seems that he and the club have a good relationship, so perhaps another deal could be worked out to keep him with the Royals at that point.

“I am incredibly grateful to the Sherman family and the Royals front office for believing in me,” Witt said on X today, “and I promise to do everything in my power to help bring championship baseball back to Kansas City! Let’s go!!”

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Royals and Witt were in agreement on an 11-year, $288.8MM deal. Anne Rogers of MLB.com reported the deal included a three-year team option. Passan reported the inclusion of opt-out clauses after years seven, eight, nine and ten; Passan was also first to report the $89MM value of the three-year option as well as the $7.78MM signing bonus. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the specific salary breakdown. FanSided’s Robert Murray had reported on Sunday that the Royals and Witt had reopened extension talks. Jon Heyman of The New York Post relayed the full no-trade clause.

Brewers Sign Jakob Junis

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The Brewers announced that they have signed free agent righty Jakob Junis to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2025. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (X link) initially reported the deal. It’s a one-year, $7MM guarantee for the Wasserman client, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Junis will receive a $4MM salary next season and a $3MM buyout on the 2025 mutual option, which The Associated Press reports is valued at $8MM. He’s expected to open the year in Milwaukee’s starting rotation.

Junis hit the open market for the first time coming off a quietly strong platform showing. The 31-year-old pitched 86 innings over 40 appearances as a multi-inning reliever for the Giants a year ago. He turned in a personal-low 3.87 ERA while striking out an above-average 26.2% of opposing hitters. That was the best mark of his career, as was his 11.3% swinging strike rate.

An uptick in velocity played a part in his improved swing-and-miss results. Junis averaged 93.7 MPH on his sinker, above the 91-92 MPH range in which his fastball had sat for his career. He also added a tick to his slider, which clocked in at 84.2 MPH on average after sitting in the 82-83 MPH area in prior years. Adding some speed to the slider was probably more important than the extra life on the fastball. Junis uses the breaking pitch at an atypical rate.

The slider has been his primary pitch in each of the last four seasons. He pushed it to new heights in 2023, turning to the breaker nearly 63% of the time. That didn’t come at the expense of the strong control he’s shown throughout his career. He walked under 6% of opponents for the fourth time out of his five MLB seasons with 40+ innings.

As one might expect given his slider/sinker profile, Junis has been more effective against same-handed hitters. Since the start of 2022, righty batters have a .254/.297/.414 line while striking out nearly a quarter of the time against him. Left-handed bats have fanned at a modest 20.3% rate and turned in a robust .290/.341/.494 showing over that stretch.

It’s easier for a manager to navigate around those platoon issues when Junis is pitching in a relief role, even one in which he frequently works multiple innings. It could be a bigger concern as a starter, although it wouldn’t be surprising if skipper Pat Murphy tends to minimize his exposure to opposing lineups more than twice in an outing.

That’s generally how Milwaukee seems to be approaching the 2024 rotation. They’ve moved on from their pair of co-aces. Brandon Woodruff was non-tendered after the revelation he needed shoulder surgery, while Corbin Burnes was traded last week. That left the Brew Crew with Freddy Peralta as the unquestioned staff ace, followed by pitchers with varying degrees of injury or performance concerns.

Milwaukee re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea to factor into the middle of the staff. They took a flier on Joe Ross, who missed most of last season working back from 2022 Tommy John surgery. Hard-throwing southpaw DL Hall came back from Baltimore in the Burnes return. Aaron Ashby is still trying to carve out a rotation role despite various injuries, including a shoulder procedure that wiped out his ’23 season. Prospects Robert Gasser, Jacob Misiorowski and Carlos Rodriguez loom in the upper minors.

It’s unlikely to be the kind of dominant rotation Milwaukee has trotted out in recent seasons, even if there’s a decent amount of intrigue with Junis, Ashby and the aforementioned collection of young pitchers. There aren’t many reliable sources of innings, which could force Murphy to lean heavily on his relief group.

The $4MM salary brings Milwaukee’s payroll projection around $105MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s well below last year’s approximate $119MM mark. It’s unclear whether ownership is willing to match last season’s spending level. If there’s payroll room, the roster could benefit from an additional bench bat and perhaps another left-handed reliever to pair with Hoby Milner.

MLBTR ranked Junis as the offseason’s #47 free agent, predicting a two-year, $15MM guarantee. He comes up short of that figure on a one-year deal. He’ll look to establish himself as a starter before returning to free agency next winter in advance of his age-32 season. The mutual option is essentially an accounting measure that allows the Brewers to push $3MM of the guarantee to the start of next offseason. Mutual options are almost never exercised by both sides, so Junis is very likely to head back to the market a year from now.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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