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Nelson Cruz Has Received Offers For 2023 Season

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Veteran slugger Nelson Cruz had a down year with the Nationals in 2022 and turned 42 over the summer, but the seven-time All-Star doesn’t appear to be considering retirement. Cruz said in a radio appearance on Grandes en los Deportes in his native Dominican Republic that he’s already received formal offers for the 2023 season (Twitter link). As one would expect, Cruz did not reveal which team or teams have made him an offer, nor did he divulge additional details on the nature of said offers.

Following the season, Cruz underwent surgery on his left eye — a procedure intended to alleviate inflammation that had blurred his vision. Cruz noted at the time that he’d had issues with the eye dating back to the 2021 season, though they worsened considerably over the course of his 2022 season. Specifically, Cruz explained that he’d had difficulty picking up the spin on pitches.

Whether due to the vision troubles, his age or some combination of the two, Cruz indeed had his worst season since establishing himself as a big league regular way back in 2008. Signed by the Nationals to a one-year, $15MM contract in March, Cruz went on to bat just .234/.313/.337. He homered just ten times as a National — far and away his lowest total in any of his 14 seasons as a regular. Cruz even homered 16 times during the 60-game 2020 season and had otherwise never hit fewer than 22 long balls in a full big league campaign.

Prior to his one-year stint in D.C., Cruz remained a highly productive designated hitter with the Twins. In parts of three seasons with Minnesota, he batted .304/.386/.598 with 76 home runs in 1081 trips to the plate. Minnesota traded Cruz to the Rays in a July 2021 deal that netted them righty Joe Ryan, however, and Cruz began to struggle at the plate with Tampa Bay. The timing of that downturn in production aligns roughly with the timeline Cruz laid out when discussing his eye troubles.

Any team that signs Cruz would likely need a clear vacancy at designated hitter. Cruz hasn’t played an inning in the outfield since 2018 with the Mariners, though the Rays did give him one game (seven innings) at first base late in the 2021 campaign. Still, it’d be a stretch for any of the Dodgers (J.D. Martinez), Red Sox (Justin Turner, with Rafael Devers and Triston Casas at the infield corners), Tigers (Miguel Cabrera), Angels (Shohei Ohtani), Yankees (Giancarlo Stanton), Marlins (Jorge Soler), Giants (Joc Pederson, with Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger in the outfield corners) or Astros (Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker) to squeeze Cruz into the mix, unless he were willing to accept a role as a pure bench bat. That said, given his lack of defensive ability, Cruz may not appeal to clubs as an option off the bench.

Cruz didn’t tip his hand as to when he might make a decision on a team for the forthcoming season and gave no indication as to whether the offers he’s received are ones he is strongly considering. He and agent Bryce Dixon have plenty of time to deliberate, of course, but Cruz has a rather full plate at the moment; he’s serving as the general manager for the Dominican Republic’s team in this year’s World Baseball Classic and also plans to play in the event.

Three Teams Interested In Yu Chang

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Free agent infielder Yu Chang is reportedly drawing interest from three big league teams (h/t to CPBL Stats).

Chang, 27, suited up for four teams last year, making appearances for the Guardians, Red Sox, Pirates and Rays. He slashed a combined .208/.289/.315 with four home runs over 190 plate appearances, striking out in 31.1% of those and walking 8.4% of the time.

Signed by the Guardians out of Taiwan in 2013, Chang made his debut with Cleveland as a 23-year-old in 2019. He wouldn’t get many opportunities at the big league level in his first few seasons, but did get an extended run in 2021. That year, Chang slashed .228/.267/.426 with nine home runs over 251 plate appearances. Cleveland designated him for assignment after appearing in just four games in 2022, and he’s bounced round the league a bit since.

Defensively, Chang has generally spent time at first, second and third base, although he has seen a little bit of time at shortstop as well. Over his career, he’s been worth two Outs Above Average at first, three at second and four at third.

While it’s not known what sort of interest he’s getting around the majors, it seems likely he’d land on a minor league deal providing some infield depth in case of injuries. As such, it’s largely pointless to try and speculate which three teams may be interested as just about any team could do with a bit more infield depth on minor league deals.

Quick Hits: Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Rangers

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The Diamondbacks have added former pitcher Rolando Valles to their major league coaching staff, per Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic. Valles takes the position vacated by former D-Backs bench coach Luis Urueta, who left the team in November to join the Marlins in the same role. When discussing the hiring, manager Torey Lovullo told reporters that Valles will be part of Arizona’s “run-prevention team.”

Signed by the Astros as an undrafted free agent in 1997, Valles would spend five years in the club’s system, reaching Low-A, before playing another five seasons in independent leagues. He then transitioned to an organizational role, spending two seasons with the Brewers in their player development system helping players with their off-field needs and on-field development before becoming a minor league pitching coach in 2010. Valles joined the Reds in 2019 in an associate coaching role where he engaged in offensive and pitching duties.

Some more notes from around the game…

  • The recent passing of a ’millionaires tax’ in Massachusetts has led to an increase in state income taxes in 2023 from 5% to 9% on annual income over $1MM — potentially impacting Boston’s offseason, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. Speier reports that agents who have been negotiating with the Red Sox are factoring in the tax when contemplating offers, stating that “it’s potentially millions of dollars in the deal.” Speier adds that Boston is now “lumped in with teams in California and New York in needing to outbid clubs in more favorable tax environments (particularly Texas and Florida, where there’s no state income tax) to present offers of equal value.” Speculatively speaking, this tax may have played a role in the Red S0x’s five-year, $90MM agreement with NPB star Masataka Yoshida, who many around the league predicted would earn significantly less.
  • With the Red Sox witnessing their longtime shortstop Xander Bogarts leave in free agency, the club has been connected with several middle infielders to fill the hole, most recently signing Niko Goodrum to a Minor League deal and discussing Joey Wendle with the Marlins. However, the door for Kike Hernandez to play a key role in the infield has not been completely shut. The super utilityman told reports that he is “preparing to play center field every day … but I haven’t thrown away my infield glove,” adding that he continues to take ground balls. Over nine seasons, the 31-year-old has logged 2,335 innings at short and second base but has primarily patrolled Fenway’s outfield in recent years. From a defensive standpoint, advanced metrics concerning Hernandez’s middle infield production are split. Since 2014 at the shortstop position, the righty is credited with 9 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a 5.4 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) but a -3 Outs Above Average (OAA). Similarly, since 2014 at second base, Hernandez has amassed 18 DRS but a -6.1 UZR and -5 OAA.
  • Despite missing the entirety of the 2022 season, Michael Conforto and agent Scott Boras were able to secure the outfielder a two-year, $36MM contract with the Giants. Important to the deal, per Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, was the no-barrier opt out presented to Conforto by San Francisco. Grant adds that while the Rangers offered the left-handed hitter a deal similar to the Giants, Conforto would have to meet certain playing thresholds to execute the opt out.

Brett Anderson Seeking Return To MLB

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Left-hander Brett Anderson sat out the 2022 season, but Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports he’s preparing for a potential comeback next year. The veteran starter turns 35 in February.

Anderson appeared in the majors in every year from 2009-21. He spent his first five seasons in Oakland before taking on more of a journeyman role by the 2014 campaign. Dealt to the Rockies during the 2013-14 offseason, he’d go on to appear with five different teams over the next five seasons. Anderson spent one year in Denver followed by two seasons with the Dodgers. He split the 2017 campaign between the Cubs and Blue Jays before heading back to Oakland.

The former second-round draftee spent the 2018-19 seasons with the A’s, throwing 176 innings (the second-highest total of his career) in the second season. After that year, Anderson inked a $5MM contract with the Brewers. He spent the abbreviated 2020 campaign in Milwaukee, then returned on a new $2.5MM pact for 2021.

Anderson made 24 starts during his second season with the Brew Crew, but the club limited him to 96 frames. He only faced an opponent for the third time in a outing on 43 occasions. That somewhat sheltered role paid off, as Anderson posted decent numbers in a hitter-friendly Milwaukee environment. He worked to a 4.22 ERA, only walking 6.8% of his opponents while racking up grounders on a massive 57.5% of batted balls. Anderson averaged under 90 MPH on his fastball and only struck out 14.2% of batters faced, but his go-to sinker remained effective at keeping the ball out of the air.

At year’s end, Anderson qualified for free agency. He seemingly didn’t pursue any opportunities, as there were no substantive reports of teams with interest last winter. Anderson never announced his retirement, however, and he’s apparently again looking to get back to the highest level.

For his career, the Texas native owns a 4.07 ERA in 1140 1/3 innings. He allowed around four earned runs per nine innings in each season from 2019-21, and some clubs will presumably check in on his progress as he builds back towards game strength. Anderson will surely have to take a minor league contract and may well have to conduct a showcase in front of scouts before signing, but it stands to reason he could secure an invitation to Spring Training at some point this offseason.

Sign Up For The Free MLBTR Newsletter

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The MLB Trade Rumors Newsletter has been going strong for over a year!  The newsletter is written by Cliff Corcoran, who has an extensive resume contributing to Sports Illustrated, The Athletic, Baseball Prospectus, and other outlets.  Cliff will take you through the hot stove highlights of the previous day, boiling down MLBTR’s posts into the essential stories.  It’s a great morning read during these busy hot stove times.

 

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Cole Hamels Planning Comeback In 2023

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Cole Hamels is looking for one more shot at continuing his baseball career, and told The Associated Press that he is hoping to catch on with a new team this offseason.  “A Spring Training invite is no risk, all reward.  If you start me out in February, I’ll be ready by April 1,” Hamels said.  “Or I’ll know exactly I can’t do it, and I will be the first one to admit, nope, I had a great career. I can hang it up and be proud of what I did.”

The left-hander is a veteran of 15 Major League seasons (2006-20), and is best remembered as one of the key figures of the Phillies’ 2008 World Series team.  Hamels was named the MVP of both the NLCS and World Series during that championship season, the highlight of an excellent 10-year run in Philadelphia.  After being traded to the Rangers in 2015, Hamels spent parts of four seasons in Texas before heading to the Cubs in 2018-19, and then one single game with the Braves in 2020.

That lone game represents Hamels’ last appearance in the big leagues.  Triceps and shoulder injuries limited his time in Atlanta, and after he inked a $1MM deal with the Dodgers in August 2021, his Los Angeles stint was also derailed by injuries.  Continued shoulder problems resulted in surgery, and Hamels has now spent over a year both recovering and taking care of some other related health issues.

The shoulder procedure was only one of three surgeries for Hamels over the last year, as he also dealt with a pinched nerve in his left foot and a torn right meniscus.  “It’s hard to train when you’ve got body parts that are not doing what they’re supposed to do to allow you to do what you want to do,” Hamels said, and the fuller scope of surgeries allowed for more “understanding what was kind of wrong, getting it fixed and then actually being able to rehab it, just kind of addressing the right areas and not trying to overcompensate.”

This cleaner bill of health could make any interested teams feel more comfortable about signing a pitcher who turns 39 later in December, and who essentially hasn’t pitched in three full seasons.  However, as Hamels noted, there isn’t much risk in a minor league contract, and clubs can use spring camp as a better chance to evaluate what the southpaw can still bring to the table.  While Hamels would ideally like to start games, his primary goal is just getting back onto the mound, as he said he is “not opposed” to working as a reliever.

Jameson Taillon Drawing Strong Interest In Free Agency

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Starting pitcher Jameson Taillon has been taking Zoom meetings with clubs and his market is “gaining steam,” according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

It’s hardly surprising that teams are interested in Taillon, given that just about every club is looking to bolster its rotation at this time of year. The starting pitching market is headlined by aces like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon, with those guys looking for hefty contracts that only certain teams will be willing to pay. Taillon, however, is generally considered to be part of the next tier of serviceable mid-rotation arms, which means his contract will be lesser than those aces but his market wider.

The Pirates selected Taillon with the second overall pick back in the 2010 draft and he was a highly-touted prospect during his time in the minors. However, his big league debut was delayed by both Tommy John surgery and testicular cancer, but Taillon eventually got through both of those ordeals and made it to the big leagues in 2016.

Over this first three years, he established himself as a solid big league arm, tossing 428 2/3 innings by the end of 2018, with a 3.63 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate. Unfortunately, he was limited to just seven starts in 2019 before requiring flexor tendon surgery and a second Tommy John. That wiped out the remainder of his 2019 and kept him sidelined for all of 2020.

Taillon never suited up for the Pirates again, as he was traded to the Yankees going into 2021. It was a risky move for the Yanks, given Taillon’s uncertain injury situation. But he has stayed healthy the past two years outside of a brief IL stint for an ankle injury late in 2021. He still made 29 starts that year and 32 in 2022, producing a combined 4.08 ERA over the past two seasons along with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 37.1% ground ball rate.

Those aren’t elite numbers but they’re certainly good enough for Taillon to upgrade most pitching staffs around the league. However, the Yankees didn’t issue him a $19.65MM qualifying offer, evidently unwilling to pay that Taillon at that rate. MLBTR predicted Taillon to secure himself a contract of $56MM over four years, an average annual value of $14MM, though Feinsand reports that Taillon is expected to beat that figure. The starting pitching market has seemed robust so far, with Tyler Anderson getting $39MM over three years while Mike Clevinger and Matt Boyd signed strong one-year deals worth $12MM and $10MM, respectively, despite injury concerns for both of them. If starters continue to be highly valued by clubs this winter, it wouldn’t be a shock if Taillon does indeed surpass projections.

MLB Sells Remaining BAMTech Share To Disney

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Major League Baseball has sold its 15% stake in the BAMTech streaming platform to the Walt Disney Company, the Associated Press reports. Disney paid the league $900MM to buy out MLB’s final share in BAMTech, according to filings with the SEC. Disney now owns the service completely.

BAMTech has its roots in the MLB Advanced Media platform, which was created back in 2000. MLB’s digital media arm has long been regarded as an industry leader that has generated strong revenues for the league. Disney had increasingly invested in BAMTech in recent years, purchasing a 75% share by 2017 in a deal that saw each MLB team receive roughly $50MM in additional revenue. The corporation bought out a 10% share owned by the National Hockey League last year for $350MM and completed the process with this month’s purchase from MLB.

The proceeds of the sale are expected to be distributed evenly among teams. As Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes, that represents a roughly $30MM windfall for each club. Whether that’ll lead teams to more freely invest in player payroll remains to be seen, although it’s a notable bump in revenue for organizations that could theoretically serve as a catalyst for an uptick in free agent spending.

At the end of October, commissioner Rob Manfred told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times that MLB earned just below $11 billion in revenue this year (Twitter link). That’s presumably slightly above pre-pandemic levels, as the league reported $10.7 billion in revenue back in 2019. MLB did not announce a revenue figure in either 2020 or ’21.

Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Now Available

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5,966 people submitted entries in MLBTR’s annual free agent prediction contest!  The contest leaderboard is now available.

The goal of the contest has always been to see who can do the best at predicting where MLB free agents sign – a very difficult endeavor.  However, in the past I have always allowed for freebies – if a player signs during the week or so that the contest is open, you were able to change your pick to the correct team, and it would count as correct.  Typically this has only been for a couple of players.

Though some people like the freebie simply to reward diligence, that’s not why I’ve done it that way in the past.  Instead, I’ve left signed players in the contest because we didn’t have the technical resources to alter the leaderboard midstream.  Now, we have that person, and removing the six signed (or in the case of Clayton Kershaw, close to a deal for three weeks) players from the contest was easy.  Six would have been an abnormally high number of freebies, as well, so it served as a tipping point for me.

Additionally, some contest participants do not receive the confirmation email from Google Forms that allows them to modify their picks, so those people were missing out on freebies for a technical reason I was not able to solve.

I changed my mind on freebies because I think it’s better this way, and always doing something a certain way isn’t a good reason to continue.  While this change is going to lower batting averages for all participants (including participating MLBTR staff!), nine prognosticators still maintain a perfect batting average after the signings of Mike Clevinger and Jose Abreu.

Nathan Eovaldi, Matt Strahm Drawing Strong Interest

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The markets for right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and left-hander Matt Strahm are “heating up,” according to Rob Bradford of WEEI. He speculates that one of them could sign prior to the Winter Meetings, which begin on December 4.

Bradford doesn’t specifically link any teams to the two hurlers, but it’s not surprising that they are generating lots of interest. Both of them have shown various levels of quality in the past but neither is likely to command a massive contract, meaning very few teams would be priced out of their bidding. Given that just about every team could use some extra arms, it makes sense that many of them would be kicking the tires.

Eovaldi is an established mid-rotation starter but has shown himself capable of pushing his production towards the front end. In 2021, he made 32 starts for the Red Sox, throwing 182 1/3 innings in the process. His 3.75 ERA might seem to be merely decent, but his 25.5% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate were both a few ticks better than average. Advanced metrics felt he deserved much better, with his 2.79 FIP almost a full run better than his ERA. FanGraphs wins above replacement, which is FIP-based, gave Eovaldi 5.7 on the season. That was the third-highest tally among all MLB pitchers that year, trailing only Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler.

However, he’s not coming off the ideal platform year, as back and shoulder injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings in 2022. He kept his ERA down to 3.87 but his velocity was down in the second half and his strikeout rate dropped to 22.4%. This isn’t the first time injuries have been a concern, as he’s twice had Tommy John surgery and also had surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow in 2019. He’s also turning 33 in February and has been tagged with a qualifying offer, tying him to draft pick compensation. Those factors will put a damper on his market, with MLBTR predicting a two-year, $34MM contract. The free agent market has aces like Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon, but they are all likely to command nine-figure deals. The next tier features many mid-rotation options like Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and others, but Eovaldi is one of the more interesting upside plays in that group.

As for Strahm, he’s proven himself to be a capable left-handed reliever, which is often more than enough to garner free agent interest on its own. But he’s also hoping to find an opportunity as a starter this offseason, which could expand his market even wider. He hasn’t made multiple starts in a season since 2019, but Michael Lorenzen hadn’t made more than three starts in a season since 2015 when he set out to free agency looking for a starting gig and signed a one-year, $6.75MM deal with the Angels a year ago.

Strahm has a somewhat similar profile and could potentially secure himself a deal in that range, though it’s not a guarantee he’ll take that path. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported today that Strahm is more likely to secure a bullpen job given the weakness of the free agent market in that department. As Rosenthal points out, the other southpaw relievers like Taylor Rogers, Will Smith and Brad Hand all had concerning performances in 2022, while Matt Moore was great but after many poor seasons prior to that. Those factors could lead to Strahm getting a nice offer to be a team’s primary bullpen lefty, which might be tempting enough that he forgoes his plan to jump into a rotation again. He posted a 3.83 ERA in 44 2/3 innings this year for the Red Sox, striking out 26.9% of batters faced while walking 8.8%.

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