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Service Time Considerations For Top Prospects

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Timing the debuts of top prospects is essential for MLB teams. No club wants to expose a player to top competition before he's ready, but keeping a player in the minors when he could be contributing at the big league level is hardly appealing either. It's a balancing act.

Though a player's development generally determines his timeline to the Major Leagues, service time is undeniably a consideration. MLB teams can obtain an extra year of control from a player by delaying his debut and they can decrease his chances of qualifying for an additional year of arbitration with enough patience.

Heavily-hyped prospects often have carefully-timed debuts, and Baseball America's recently-released list of the game's top 100 prospects features those currently generating the most buzz. Of the 100 players on the list, 36 project to arrive in the Major Leagues in 2013, according to Baseball America. The chart below presents two key dates for each prospect who might make an impact this coming season.

First, there's the approximate date on which the team can call the player up while keeping him under control for an extra year — through 2019. Next, there's the approximate date on which the team can call the player up without setting him up for super two status and a fourth trip through arbitration.

Service Time Considerations '13

In many cases — Hyun-Jin Ryu comes to mind — service time will not affect teams’ decisions. But keep this list in mind if you’re wondering why Wil Myers is still at Triple-A Durham midway through the first month of the season.

This service time explanation is a modified version of a piece initially published at MLB Trade Rumors one year ago.

The Oldest $100MM Players

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Even as massive contracts become more and more common, baseball's first $100MM player remains the oldest person to obtain a nine-figure deal. Kevin Brown signed the first $100MM contract in baseball history after the 1998 season, a year in which the 33-year-old logged 257 innings, struck out 257 opponents and posted a 2.38 ERA. It led to a $105MM guarantee from the Dodgers, the first of its kind in MLB.

It’s been 14 years since Brown finalized his record deal — long enough for teams to hand out 40 more $100MM deals. In the last calendar year alone nine players have signed nine-figure deals. Many have surpassed Brown's $105MM guarantee, but none of them have been older than 33.

Here's the complete, updated list of $100MM players sorted by age, courtesy of MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker (the list includes free agent signings and extensions, but does not include posting fees for Japanese players):

  • Kevin Brown, 33, signed a seven-year, $105MM deal on 12/12/1998.
  • Alex Rodriguez, 32, signed a ten-year, $275MM deal on 12/13/2007.
  • Cliff Lee, 32, signed a five-year, $120MM deal on 12/13/2010.
  • Albert Pujols, 31, signed a ten-year, $240MM deal on 12/08/2011.
  • Jayson Werth, 31, signed a seven-year, $126MM deal on 12/05/2010.
  • Josh Hamilton, 31, signed a five-year, $125MM deal on 12/15/2012.
  • Alfonso Soriano, 30, signed an eight-year, $136MM deal on 11/20/2006.
  • Ryan Howard, 30, signed a five-year, $125MM extension on 4/26/2010.
  • Jason Giambi, 30, signed a seven-year, $120MM deal on 12/18/2001.
  • Ken Griffey Jr., 30, signed a nine-year, $116.5MM deal on 2/11/2000.
  • Carlos Lee, 30, signed a six-year, $100MM deal on 11/24/2006.
  • Zack Greinke, 29, signed a six-year, $147MM deal on 12/09/2012.
  • Carl Crawford, 29, signed a seven-year, $142MM deal on 12/8/2010.
  • David Wright, 29, signed an eight-year, $138MM deal on 12/04/2012.
  • Matt Holliday, 29, signed a seven-year, $120MM deal on 1/7/2010.
  • Joey Votto, 28, signed a ten-year, $225MM deal on 04/02/2012.
  • Mark Teixeira, 28, signed an eight-year, $180MM deal on 1/6/2009.
  • C.C. Sabathia, 28, signed a seven-year, $161MM deal on 12/20/2008 (revised as a 31-year-old on 10/31/2011). 
  • Manny Ramirez, 28, signed an eight-year, $160MM deal on 12/19/2000.
  • Adrian Gonzalez, 28, signed a seven-year, $154MM deal on 4/15/2011.
  • Cole Hamels, 28, signed a six-year, $144MM deal on 07/25/2012.
  • Johan Santana, 28, signed a six-year, $137.5MM deal on 2/2/2008.
  • Vernon Wells, 28, signed a seven-year, $126MM deal on 12/20/2006.
  • Barry Zito, 28, signed a seven-year, $126MM deal on 12/29/2006.
  • Mike Hampton, 28, signed an eight-year, $121MM deal on 12/12/2000.
  • Jose Reyes, 28, signed a six-year, $106MM deal on 12/04/2011.
  • Prince Fielder, 27, signed a nine-year, $214MM deal on 1/24/2012.
  • Matt Kemp, 27, signed an eight-year, $160MM deal on 11/14/2011.
  • Todd Helton, 27, signed a nine-year, $141.5MM deal on 3/1/2001.
  • Carlos Beltran, 27, signed a seven-year, $119MM deal on 1/13/2005.
  • Matt Cain, 27, signed a five-year, $112.5MM deal on 04/02/2012.
  • Ryan Braun, 27, signed a five-year, $105MM deal on 4/21/2011.
  • Ryan Zimmerman, 27, signed a six-year, $100MM deal on 2/26/2012.
  • Evan Longoria, 27, signed a six-year, $100MM deal on 11/26/2012.
  • Derek Jeter, 26, signed a ten-year, $189MM deal on 2/1/2001.
  • Joe Mauer, 26, signed an eight-year, $184MM deal on 3/21/2010.
  • Felix Hernandez, 26, signed a seven-year, $175MM deal on 02/07/2013.
  • Troy Tulowitzki, 26, signed a six-year, $119MM deal on 11/30/2010.
  • Alex Rodriguez, 25, signed a ten-year, $252MM deal on 12/1/2000.
  • Miguel Cabrera, 24, signed an eight-year, $152.3MM deal on 3/24/2008.
  • Albert Pujols, 24, signed a seven-year, $100MM deal on 2/19/2004.

It's also worth noting that $100MM contracts have been evenly split between extensions and free agent contracts. Since the beginning of the 2009-10 offseason, however there have been 14 $100MM extensions against just nine $100MM free agent signings.

How Often Are Vesting Options Triggered?

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Vesting options often appeal to both teams and players. Teams obtain assurances that they won't be overpaying for unproductive players and players get the chance to earn more by staying on the field.  There are always a handful of players with these clauses each season, but how often to do they vest?  Here, we'll take a look at the vesting options from the past three seasons and crunch the numbers to see what percentage of them have clicked.

2011

  • Brian Fuentes, Angels: Needed 55 games finished in 2010 for $9MM option to vest. He completed just 35 for the Angels and Twins.
  • Billy Wagner, Braves: Wagner's $6.5MM option vested as he easily surpassed 50 games finished (64).  However, the guaranteed money wasn't enough to talk to the veteran out of retirement.
  • Trever Miller, Cardinals: Miller reached 45 appearances, securing his $2MM option for the next season.  It would have reverted to a club option if he spent time on the DL with a left arm or shoulder injury, but he stayed healthy for the remainder of the year.
  • Matt Cain, Giants: Cain had more than the required 182 1/3 innings or 27 starts (223 1/3, 33) for his  $6.25MM option to vest, but the Giants instead guaranteed his 2011 salary at $7MM as part of his three-year extension.
  • Kerry Wood, Indians: Wood got a late start in 2010 season thanks to a back injury and a mid-season trade to the Yankees. The trade meant that he wouldn't get to close anymore, putting him well shy of the 55 games he had to finish to activate his $11MM option.
  • Alex Cora, Mets: Needed 80 games for his $2MM option to vest, but he played in just 66 games for the Mets and Rangers.
  • Darren Oliver, Rangers: $3.25MM option vested, as he surpassed the required 59 appearances (64).
  • Ramon Hernandez, Reds: $3.25MM option would have vested with 120 games played but he totaled just 97.
  • Magglio Ordonez, Tigers: He was on pace to easily hit 135 starts (or 540 plate appearances) before an ankle fracture in July cost him a guaranteed $15MM in 2011. 

2012

  • Bobby Abreu, Angels: Got his $9MM option by getting the required 433 plate appearances (finished with 585). 
  • Adam Wainwright, Cardinals: His second place finish in the 2010 Cy Young voting was step one of the vesting process, but the options for 2012 ($9MM) and 2013 ($12MM) options did not vest as he finished the season on the disabled list after having Tommy John surgery.
  • Aramis Ramirez, Cubs: $16MM option did not vest since he was not traded or named MVP of either the regular season or League Championship Series.
  • Rafael Furcal, Dodgers: Had just 369 total plate appearances, needed 600 for his $12MM option to vest.
  • Jon Garland, Dodgers: Recorded 54 innings on the mound, but needed 190 for his $8MM option to vest.
  • Francisco Rodriguez, Mets: Rodriguez agreed to waive his vesting option in exchange for additional compensation following the trade that sent him to the Brewers.  He would have been guaranteed a $17.5MM salary in 2012 had he finished 55 games and been declared healthy by doctors.
  • Koji Uehara, Orioles: $4MM option vested thanks to his 65 appearances (needed 55), despite coming shy of 25 games finished, which also would have triggered it. 
  • Arthur Rhodes, Rangers: $4MM option did not vest.  He needed 62 appearances but only totaled 51 between the Rangers and Cardinals.
  • Joakim Soria, Royals: Needed 55 appearances for his $6MM option to vest and racked up 60.
  • Dan Wheeler, Red Sox: His option would have vested at $3MM if he pitched in 65 games and increased to $3.25MM with 70 games, but he fell short of both totals with 47 appearances.

(A quick mention here for Mark Buehrle, who would have had an extra year at $15MM tacked onto his deal if he was traded at some point during the 2011 season.  Of course, that didn't happen.)

2013

  • Jason Bartlett, Padres: Only had 98 plate appearances on the year, needed 432 for his $5.5MM option to kick in.
  • Alex Gonzalez, Brewers: $4MM option would have vested with 525 plate appearances, but had just 89 thanks to a torn ACL.
  • Chipper Jones, Braves: $9MM+ option would have vested with 123 games while the future Hall of Famer only played in 112.  It didn't matter much anyway as Jones retired following the 2012 season.
  • Kevin Gregg, Orioles: Needed 50 games finished for his $6MM option to vest, had just 13.
  • Brett Myers, Astros: Myers' $10MM option would have vested with 45 games finished.  He also could have triggered the option based on an unknown points system.  Neither one of these things happened, leading the White Sox to decline his option.

Out of the 24 total vesting options across the last three seasons, only seven were triggered — and that's including Cain and Wagner*, who met the necessary requirements for their options but did not accept them for different reasons.  In total, just over 29% of the vesting options over the last three years have been triggered.

* By the same token, we'll put Rodriguez along with the options that did not vest, even though it was tossed out upon his trade to Milwaukee.  He did not reach the 55 games finished that would have been required to guarantee his $17.5MM salary for 2012.

This year, we'll be keeping an eye on vesting options for several notable players and some are more realistic than others.  Lance Berkman hopes to stay healthy and trigger his $13MM option for 2014 by hitting 550 plate appearances on the year with the Rangers.  The Giants will be on the hook for $18MM if Barry Zito reaches 200 innings in 2013.  To trigger his $20MM option for 2014 with the Phillies, Roy Halladay needs to rack up 259 innings this year.  It's a tall order, but Halladay did manage to record 250 2/3 innings just three years ago.

Team Facebook/Twitter/RSS

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If you prefer your MLBTR fix limited to only your favorite team, we've got you covered.  Below are links to our team Facebook, Twitter, and RSS pages and feeds.

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

Transactions only: Twitter / RSS

How To Use MLBTR

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An explanation of the many ways to enjoy MLB Trade Rumors:

  • If the main site doesn't load perfectly on your cell phone, try the more mobile-friendly mlbtraderumors.mobi.  It's a simple page that shows you just the headlines and lets you click through to what you want to read.
  • If you're an iPhone user, be sure to pick up our app for the latest news and rumors. MLBTR just introduced an Android app as well.
  • If you want only the hard news in the form of transactions, our transactions page is the ticket.  You can also get only the transactions via Twitter or RSS. 
  • To return to the main page at any time, just click on the title or the Home button on the navigation bar below the title. 
  • The navigation bar will cover many of your needs.  Use the About dropdown to learn about this site or any of its writers. 
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  • Feeds By Team is a very useful dropdown.  Hover over it to see all 30 teams.  Click on the team name to bring up a page of every post containing information about that team, with the latest on top.  These are the same pages you'll find if you go to the Rumors By Team section on the sidebar and select A's Rumors, Angels Rumors, etc.  
  • Also under the Feeds By Team dropdown, you'll find RSS and Twitter buttons.  Those links allow you to follow a single team's rumors via RSS or Twitter.  Did you know we have a separate Twitter account for each of the 30 teams?  For example you can follow @mlbtrtigers, where you would get the latest Tigers updates.
  • You can also follow Tim Dierkes and Ben Nicholson-Smith on Twitter for more MLBTR content.
  • On the far right of the Navigation bar, you'll see buttons for Twitter, Facebook, and RSS.  MLBTR has over 248,000 Twitter followers, over 68,000 Facebook fans, and over 53,000 RSS subscribers.  Sign up for these and you'll be the first to receive all of our posts.
  • Be sure to check out your favorite team's MLBTR page on Facebook so you can receive and comment on the latest rumors.
  • On to the sidebar.  It begins with a list of our Top Stories, which our writers update any time major hard news occurs.  Go here for a quick update on the most important stories.  Below that is the site's Search Box, where you can type in any player's name and get the latest on him. 
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  • Below Features you've got headlines for all the Recent Posts, in case you'd rather not scroll to see all the headlines.  Then there's a box for our Mailing List, where you can sign up to receive a daily email containing MLBTR's posts.  Use this option if you don't need the news as soon as possible.
  • Next we have Featured Posts, where you'll find original work from MLBTR writers we consider noteworthy. 
  • There's also a contact form in case you need to reach MLBTR.

Regular MLBTR Features

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If you're a regular MLBTR reader, you'll be familiar with our chats, our Week In Review posts and Zach Links' Baseball Blogs Weigh In feature. Here's some more detail on when you'll see our weekly features and exactly what to expect from them:

  • MLBTR Chats - Join me every Wednesday at 2pm CDT to chat about the latest trades, signings and rumblings around the Major Leagues.
  • Baseball Blogs Weigh In - Every Friday morning, Zach Links directs you to some of the best writing on baseball blogs around the web. Whether it's opinion, stats or something else entirely, you can connect to the best of the blogosphere once a week on MLBTR. If you want to send Mike a post of yours, reach him at: mike@riveraveblues.com.
  • Week In Review - It's remarkable how much happens in seven days. Every Sunday night, Daniel Seco summarizes the week's biggest stories in our Week In Review posts.
  • MLBTR Originals - Edward Creech gathers all our original analysis and reporting in one place every Sunday night.

Notable Transactions From February 2012

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We're nine days into February and after the Mariners' signing of Joe Saunders earlier this week, only three of Tim Dierkes' Top 50 Free Agents – Michael Bourn (No. 3), Kyle Lohse (No. 10), and Jose Valverde (No. 44) - remain on the open market.  As we keep an eye on that trio, what else can we expect to go down this month?  With help from the MLBTR Transactions Tracker, here's a look back at the notable moves of February 2012..

Top Free Agent Contracts For Starting Pitchers

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Until free agent starters Kyle Lohse and Joe Saunders sign new contracts, it’ll be too early to draw final conclusions about this year’s starting pitching market. Both pitchers have cases for multiyear deals at a time that many teams could still use rotation depth.

Yet Spring Training is just a week away, and most free agent pitchers have signed. MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker offers a look at the top free agent signings for starting pitchers this offseason. Here’s the top ten, beginning with the largest guarantees (links go to MLBTR posts):

  1. Zack Greinke, Dodgers – six years, $147MM – Greinke established a new record for right-handed pitchers.
  2. Anibal Sanchez, Tigers – five years, $80MM – Sanchez returned to Detroit after coming close to a deal with the Cubs.
  3. Edwin Jackson, Cubs – four years, $52MM – The Cubs bolstered their rotation with many free agent arms, including Jackson.
  4. Jake Peavy, White Sox, – two years, $29MM – Soon after becoming the Chicago GM, Rick Hahn re-signed Peavy.
  5. Ryan Dempster, Red Sox – two years, $26.5MM – Dempster elected to stay in the American League after 15 seasons in the NL.
  6. Jeremy Guthrie, Royals – three years, $25MM – Excel Sports Management found a three-year deal for Guthrie relatively early in the offseason.
  7. Brandon McCarthy, Diamondbacks – two years, $15.5MM – McCarthy recovered from a skull fracture to obtain a multiyear deal.
  8. Joe Blanton, Angels – two years, $15MM – The Angels' rotation underwent major changes this winter.
  9. Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees – one year, $15MM – Kuroda declined New York’s qualifying offer then re-signed for another year in the Bronx.
  10. Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners – two years, $14MM – It didn’t take long for the Mariners to retain Iwakuma on a two-year deal.

Extensions That Don’t Extend Team Control

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Teams and players have agreed to 19 offseason extensions so far this winter, as MLBTR's Extension Tracker shows. Six of those extensions don't extend the teams' control over the players with options or additional guaranteed years. Here's a closer look (click on team names for MLBTR's post on each extension):

Deals Covering Two Remaining Seasons Of Arbitration Eligibility

Deals Covering First Two Seasons Of Arbitration Eligibility

This marks a shift compared to a similar point during the 2011-12 offseason, when approximately half of the extensions signed didn’t extend club control. It wouldn’t be prudent to draw too many conclusions from a single offseason, especially when that offseason isn’t yet complete. However, the dropoff struck me as noteworthy.

Teams generally covet club options, and some teams, such as the Rays, have made a habit of obtaining multiple options on most or all extensions. Other clubs have insisted that extensions buy out at least one season of free agent eligibility. In general, extending team control is a prime reason teams look to extend players.

The clubs above are taking on the risk that the players will suffer injuries or perform poorly. Yet deals that don't buy out free agent years and don't include club options can turn out well for the teams. These clubs will benefit if the players meet or exceed expectations on the field and turn out to be bargains relative to what they would have earned going year to year in arbitration.

So far this winter it seems that teams are becoming a little more hesitant to complete multiyear deals that don’t extend club control. The limited upside doesn’t seem to be tempting clubs right now.

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