Uncategorized News & Rumors

With 259K Twitter followers, MLB Trade Rumors ranks fourth on Sports Business Daily's MLB rankings, behind ESPN's Buster Olney, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, and Peter Gammons of MLB Network.  Andrew Westney conducted an interesting roundtable on the topic of Twitter with Olney, Rosenthal and the also well-followed Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  In the discussion, Rosenthal blames/credits MLBTR for his joining Twitter, and I do recall urging him to give in to the inevitable so that we wouldn't have to keep refreshing his blog.  On to today's links:

• "Free agency is neither dead nor dying; rather, it's just become a lot less interesting," writes Rob Neyer of Baseball Nation, with so many of the game's top players signed to extensions.  Neyer contends that trades are more interesting than free agent signings anyway, because they involve two teams rather than one.  But doesn't free agency involve many teams bidding on one player?
• "For the foreseeable future, I’d expect free agency to be the place you buy a short term fix rather than a long term superstar," suggests Dave Cameron of FanGraphs, who thinks the recent Red Sox offseason is what free agency is moving toward.  
• MLB's assigned draft bonus pools have risen 8.2% over last year, reports Jim Callis of Baseball America.  Callis has obtained the bonus pools by team, from the Astros at nearly $11.7MM to the Nationals at about $2.7MM.

Rapper and entrepreneur Jay-Z is "planning to become a certified agent, first in baseball and eventually in basketball and football," reports Darren Rovell of ESPN.  Jay-Z's entertainment company Roc Nation has formed a partnership with CAA Sports to create Roc Nation Sports.  The group's first client is Robinson Cano, the top free agent of the 2013-14 offseason and a former client of the Boras Corporation.  

Just to be clear, though, CAA's Brodie Van Wagenen will handle Cano's baseball contract negotiations.  Rovell further explains, "the initial launch is with CAA, but Roc Nation Sports will be its own company."

To become certified by the MLBPA, a prospective agent must "be designated by a Major League Player as his representative, or by a certified agent as a recruiter or service provider, read, understand and agree to all MLBPA Regulations Governing Player Agents, and submit a completed application for certification along with a non-refundable $500 application fee."

Seven years, $180MM!  The largest contract ever signed by a pitcher!  I'm no accountant, but I was slightly annoyed to read the common descriptions of Justin Verlander's new deal with the Tigers.  Shouldn't we just be looking at the new, guaranteed money he received, when determining the contract's value?  In what's becoming a common trend, the remaining two years and $40MM from Verlander's old contract were tacked onto the front of his new deal.  I understand why it's done — the $180MM total allowed his agency to claim the largest contract ever signed by a pitcher, topping a $175MM Felix Hernandez deal that involved the same accounting trick.

So to counter that, I've tallied up the ten biggest contracts for starting pitchers, involving only new money and years:

1. C.C. Sabathia, Yankees, December 2008: seven years, $161MM.  Sabathia signed as a free agent more than five years ago, and while Zack Greinke and Cliff Lee later topped his average annual value, no one has beat his guarantee.  Further illustrating the impressiveness of that contract, it included an opt out after the third season.  So, the deal effectively was seven years and $161MM only if Sabathia felt he couldn't do better on the open market after three years. 
2. Zack Greinke, Dodgers, December 2012: six years, $147MM.  This deal has the highest AAV for any open market, full season free agent contract.  But Greinke received only $3MM more than Hamels, despite Hamels' deal not being negotiated on the open market.
3. Cole Hamels, Phillies, July 2012: six years, $144MM.  
4. Justin Verlander, Tigers, March 2013: five years, $140MM.  
5. Felix Hernandez, Mariners, February 2013: five years, $135.5MM.    
6. Barry Zito, Giants, December 2006: seven years, $126MM.
7. Johan Santana, Mets, February 2008: five years, $124.25MM.
8. Mike Hampton, Rockies, December 2000: eight years, $121MM.
9. Cliff Lee, Phillies, December 2010: five years, $120MM.
10. Matt Cain, Giants, April, 2012: five years, $112.5MM.

Using my method, there was only one other pitcher to receive $100MM+ in new money, and it's the first: Kevin Brown in December of '98.  Who's next in the $100MM club?  Clayton Kershaw comes to mind, especially since he'll only be 27 in the first year of his next contract.  Two strong years plus the open market would give Kershaw that elusive, true $200MM in new money, but the Dodgers probably won't let him get to free agency.  Is there a $100MM pitcher in the upcoming offseason?  Josh Johnson has a shot, with a Cy Young-caliber year.  After 2014, aside from Kershaw, the Tigers' Max Scherzer is a candidate.

The average annual value pitcher contract rankings differ greatly from the total value ones:

1. C.C. Sabathia, Yankees, October 2011: one year, $30MM.  Only Sabathia has reached a $30MM AAV.  Since he did not technically opt out of his previous Yankees contract, I consider his latest deal to be one year, $30MM in new, guaranteed money.
2. Roger Clemens, Astros, May 2007: one year, $28,000,022.  This is deceptive, since Clemens signed in May and his contract was pro-rated.  He wasn't actually paid that full amount.  If a pitcher signed on September 1st for $5MM, would you consider him a $30MM pitcher?
3. Justin Verlander, Tigers, March 2013: $28MM AAV.  Verlander snagged the largest ever AAV on a multiyear deal.  It was the second time he bested Felix slightly, one month after Hernandez signed.
4. Felix Hernandez, Mariners, February 2013: $27.1MM AAV.
5. Johan Santana, Mets, February 2008: $24.85MM AAV.
6. Zack Greinke, Dodgers, December 2012: $24.5MM AAV.
7. Cole Hamels, Phillies, July 2012: $24MM AAV.
8. Cliff Lee, Phillies, December 2010: $24MM AAV.
9. C.C. Sabathia, Yankees, December 2008: $23MM AAV.
10. Matt Cain, Giants, April 2012: $22.5MM AAV.  

Clemens topped $22MM in '06 on his first pro-rated deal, and Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay also have $20MM+ AAVs.  

Do you like playing fantasy baseball, and perhaps even winning your league?  In many leagues, as tradition dictates, saves are one of the stats you must accumulate to win.  Many of those same leagues allow unlimited, instant free agent pickups.  The upshot: if you're not quick to the draw to grab the latest newly-minted closers, you won't win saves.  That's why I created @CloserNews on Twitter a few years back.  The sole purpose of this account is to inform you of closer-related news the instant it becomes available, so that you can be the first to your waiver wire.  So give it a follow today and pull your fantasy team out of the gutter!

Many of us could use a little extra boost heading into an all-important fantasy baseball draft or two this week.  Check out our latest at RotoAuthority:

• Alex Steers McCrum tells us which players have changed in value during Spring Training.
• Steve Adams gives us his rapid fire sleepers and busts.
• Ben Zobrist is a top-30 fantasy pick, opines Mark Polishuk.
• The RotoAuthority team presents its top 40 starting pitchers.

After more than four years and thousands of perfectly-crafted posts for MLB Trade Rumors, Ben Nicholson-Smith is joining Sportsnet.ca as their new baseball editor.  Sportsnet has hired one of the industry's best up-and-coming journalists.  Ben's professionalism, hard work, and top-notch writing will be sorely missed here at MLBTR, and we wish him the best.  He's made my job much easier over the years.  If you've enjoyed Ben's work here, give him a follow on Twitter.  Though this is Ben's last day at MLBTR, we'll surely be proudly linking to his work for Sportsnet.ca. 

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An explanation of the many ways to enjoy MLB Trade Rumors:

• If the main site doesn't load perfectly on your cell phone, try the more mobile-friendly mlbtraderumors.mobi.  It's a simple page that shows you just the headlines and lets you click through to what you want to read.
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• If you want only the hard news in the form of transactions, our transactions page is the ticket.  You can also get only the transactions via Twitter or RSS. 
• To return to the main page at any time, just click on the title or the Home button on the navigation bar below the title. 
• The navigation bar will cover many of your needs.  Use the About dropdown to learn about this site or any of its writers. 
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To entice veterans into signing minor league contracts, teams will often dangle opt-out clauses. These clauses allow players to push the eject button on their deals if they are not on the big league roster by a certain date.  However, the collective bargaining agreement makes such deals mandatory for players who meet certain requirements.

Last season, there were more than 30 players, known as "Article XX(B) free agents," who qualified for these agreements and signed minor league deals.  The 2012 list, as broken down by our own Mark Polishuk, included some prominent names like Vicente Padilla, Omar Vizquel, Jason Isringhausen, Juan Pierre, and Jeff Francis.  

Matt Eddy of Baseball America compiled a list of this year's group of Article XX(B) free agents.  So who qualifies for this designation?  Any player who had a Major League contract expire at the end of the previous season and with at least six years of Major League service time who signs a minor league deal.  Then, the team must make a decision about that player's fate by five days before Opening Day.  The player has to be placed on the 25-man roster, released outright, or given a $100K bonus if sent down to the minors.  If the player is sent to the minor leagues, he'll also have an opt-out date of June 1st that will allow him to bail if he is not on the varsity squad by that stage. 

As Eddy notes, 16 of last year's Article XX(B) free agents made an Opening Day roster, 11 were cut loose prior to the deadline, two began the year in Triple-A (Francis and Aaron Cook), and two others (Russell Branyan and Corey Patterson) re-worked their contracts so that they could sign straight minor league pacts. 

Here's a look at the 33 veterans on minor league deals who could be free to find new jobs or $100K richer before Opening Day.  Players who also appeared on last year's list are denoted with an asterisk..

Diamondbacks: Rod Barajas

Red Sox: Lyle Overbay

Reds: Miguel Olivo

Indians: Matt Capps, Jason Giambi, Daisuke Matsuzaka

Rockies: Miguel Batista*

Royals: Endy Chavez, Xavier Nady*, George Sherrill

Angels: Bill Hall

Dodgers: Mark Lowe

Marlins: Austin Kearns, Casey Kotchman, Chad Qualls

Mets: Tim Byrdak, Pedro Feliciano, LaTroy Hawkins

Yankees: Matt Diaz, Juan Rivera

Phillies: Aaron Cook*

Pirates: Brandon Inge, Jose Contreras, Jonathan Sanchez

Padres: Freddy Garcia

Giants: Chad Gaudin, Ramon Ramirez

Rays: Juan Carlos Oviedo, Jamey Wright*

Rangers: Jeff Baker, Yoshinori Tateyama

Nationals: Chris Young, Chris Snyder

Teams and players often agree to contract extensions during the spring, after the top free agents have signed and arbitration cases have been resolved. Extensions are all about comparables, especially when it comes to arbitration eligible players. Coming up with the relevant position, salary and service time data would have been a serious obstacle for most observers until MLBTR introduced an Extension Tracker.

The tracker shows all contract extensions, whether they cover the player's arbitration years, free agent years, or both. All the extensions are listed by date, and our filter button allows you to change the date range. You can also filter by any combination of team, position, guaranteed years, amount in millions, number of options, service time, super two status, and agency. The service time filtering allows you to choose one or both boundaries of a range. Service time is denoted as years.days, so 4.148 means four years and 148 days. The player name is hyperlinked to MLBTR's post on the story of the extension.

For example, if you wanted to put Chris Sale’s recent extension in context, you could search for all of the starting pitchers with two-plus years of service time who signed five-year deals of $25MM or more since 2008. That search turns up many similar deals, since Sale’s deal fits within a pre-established template for pitcher contracts.

The extension tracker can be found under the Tools menu in the navigation bar up top, along with our, Arbitration Tracker, Agency Database and Transaction Tracker. MLBTR also has iPhone/iPad and Android apps.