Uncategorized News & Rumors

We're nine days into February and after the Mariners' signing of Joe Saunders earlier this week, only three of Tim Dierkes' Top 50 Free Agents – Michael Bourn (No. 3), Kyle Lohse (No. 10), and Jose Valverde (No. 44) - remain on the open market.  As we keep an eye on that trio, what else can we expect to go down this month?  With help from the MLBTR Transactions Tracker, here's a look back at the notable moves of February 2012..

• Trades: Jeremy Guthrie for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom (MLBTR post), A.J. Burnett for Exicardo Cayones and Diego Moreno (MLBTR post), Chris Carpenter + PTBNL for Theo Epstein + PTBNL (MLBTR post).
• Signings: Micah Owings (Padres), Edwin Jackson (Nationals), Casey Kotchman (Indians), Todd Coffey (Dodgers), Shawn Camp (Mariners), Hong-Chih Kuo (Mariners), Luis Ayala (Orioles), Kosuke Fukudome (White Sox), Raul Ibanez (Yankees), Eric Chavez (Yankees), David Aardsma (Yankees).
• Extensions: Elvis Andrus (three years, $14.4MM), Clayton Kershaw (two years, $19MM), Nelson Cruz (two years, $16MM), Casey Janssen (two years, $5.9MM), Kyle Kendrick (two years, $7.5MM), Ryan Zimmerman (six years, $100MM), Salvador Perez (five years, $7MM), Sean Marshall (three years, $16.5MM).
• Waiver Claims: Adrian Cardenas (Cubs from A's), Darin Mastroianni (Twins from Blue Jays), Matt Angle (Dodgers from Orioles).
• Minor League Contracts: Dan Johnson (White Sox), Juan Cruz (Pirates), Chad Durbin (Nationals), Carlos Guillen (Mariners), Ryan Rowland-Smith (Cubs), Rick Ankiel (Nationals), Justin Ruggiano (Astros), Joe Beimel (Rangers), Mark Teahen (Nationals), Rick VandenHurk (Blue Jays), Alex Cora (Cardinals), Jamey Wright (Dodgers), Bill Hall (Yankees), Jeff Suppan (Padres), Nick Johnson (Orioles), Scott Linebrink (Cardinals), Mauro Gomez (Red Sox), Travis Blackley (Giants), Chris Gimenez (Rays), Ross Ohlendorf (Red Sox), Brett Tomko (Reds), Clay Rapada (Yankees), Manny Ramirez (A's), Brent Leach (Dodgers), Jason Isringhausen (Angels), Jay Gibbons (Brewers), Juan Rincon (Angels).
• Released: Rick VandenHurk (Orioles), Clay Rapada (Orioles).

Until free agent starters Kyle Lohse and Joe Saunders sign new contracts, it’ll be too early to draw final conclusions about this year’s starting pitching market. Both pitchers have cases for multiyear deals at a time that many teams could still use rotation depth.

Yet Spring Training is just a week away, and most free agent pitchers have signed. MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker offers a look at the top free agent signings for starting pitchers this offseason. Here’s the top ten, beginning with the largest guarantees (links go to MLBTR posts):

1. Zack Greinke, Dodgers – six years, $147MM – Greinke established a new record for right-handed pitchers.
2. Anibal Sanchez, Tigers – five years, $80MM – Sanchez returned to Detroit after coming close to a deal with the Cubs.
3. Edwin Jackson, Cubs – four years, $52MM – The Cubs bolstered their rotation with many free agent arms, including Jackson.
4. Jake Peavy, White Sox, – two years, $29MM – Soon after becoming the Chicago GM, Rick Hahn re-signed Peavy.
5. Ryan Dempster, Red Sox – two years, $26.5MM – Dempster elected to stay in the American League after 15 seasons in the NL.
6. Jeremy Guthrie, Royals – three years, $25MM – Excel Sports Management found a three-year deal for Guthrie relatively early in the offseason.
7. Brandon McCarthy, Diamondbacks – two years, $15.5MM – McCarthy recovered from a skull fracture to obtain a multiyear deal.
8. Joe Blanton, Angels – two years, $15MM – The Angels' rotation underwent major changes this winter.
9. Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees – one year, $15MM – Kuroda declined New York’s qualifying offer then re-signed for another year in the Bronx.
10. Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners – two years, $14MM – It didn’t take long for the Mariners to retain Iwakuma on a two-year deal.

Teams and players have agreed to 19 offseason extensions so far this winter, as MLBTR's Extension Tracker shows. Six of those extensions don't extend the teams' control over the players with options or additional guaranteed years. Here's a closer look (click on team names for MLBTR's post on each extension):

Deals Covering Two Remaining Seasons Of Arbitration Eligibility

• Jason Motte, Cardinals

Deals Covering First Two Seasons Of Arbitration Eligibility

• Logan Ondrusek, Reds
• Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies
• Cliff Pennington, Diamondbacks
• Craig Stammen, Nationals
• Josh Thole, Blue Jays

This marks a shift compared to a similar point during the 2011-12 offseason, when approximately half of the extensions signed didn’t extend club control. It wouldn’t be prudent to draw too many conclusions from a single offseason, especially when that offseason isn’t yet complete. However, the dropoff struck me as noteworthy.

Teams generally covet club options, and some teams, such as the Rays, have made a habit of obtaining multiple options on most or all extensions. Other clubs have insisted that extensions buy out at least one season of free agent eligibility. In general, extending team control is a prime reason teams look to extend players.

The clubs above are taking on the risk that the players will suffer injuries or perform poorly. Yet deals that don't buy out free agent years and don't include club options can turn out well for the teams. These clubs will benefit if the players meet or exceed expectations on the field and turn out to be bargains relative to what they would have earned going year to year in arbitration.

So far this winter it seems that teams are becoming a little more hesitant to complete multiyear deals that don’t extend club control. The limited upside doesn’t seem to be tempting clubs right now.

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High-profile players such as Chase Headley and Martin Prado avoided arbitration last week, further reducing the number of unsigned arb eligible players remaining. There are now just 15 such players, down from the group of 200-plus players for whom MLBTR projected arbitration salaries when the offseason began. Using MLBTR's Arbitration Tracker let's take a look at the remaining unsigned players…

• Jason Hammel filed for $8.25MM, Orioles countered with $5.7MM
• Shin-Soo Choo filed for $8MM, Reds countered with $6.75MM
• Max Scherzer filed for $7.4MM, Tigers countered with $6.05MM
• Jim Johnson filed for $7.1MM, Orioles countered with $5.7MM
• Homer Bailey filed for $5.8MM, Reds countered with $4.75MM
• Jordan Zimmermann filed for $5.8MM, Nationals countered with $4.6MM
• Clayton Richard filed for $5.55MM, Padres countered with $4.905MM
• Dexter Fowler filed for $5.15MM, Rockies countered with $4.25MM
• Mat Latos filed for $4.7MM, Reds countered with $4.15MM
• Sergio Romo filed for $4.5MM, Giants countered with $2.675MM
• David Freese filed for $3.75MM, Cardinals countered with $2.4MM
• Mike Leake filed for $3.5MM, Reds countered with $2.65MM
• Mike Aviles filed for $3.4MM, Indians countered with $2.4MM
• Darren O'Day filed for $3.2MM, Orioles countered with $1.8MM
• Gerardo Parra filed for $2.7MM, Diamondbacks countered with $2.1MM

Hearings are scheduled to begin in Phoenix today and continue through February 21st, Paul Hagen of MLB.com reported last week. However, these cases won't necessarily end up going before panels of arbitrators. No file and trial team has any remaining arb eligible players, as Tim Dierkes recently explained.

The arbitration process can be confusing, but it doesn't have to be. At its essence the process provides a structured way of compensating players with significant MLB experience who haven't yet earned the right to negotiate for their salaries in free agency.

When a player has between three and six years of service time or qualifies as a super two, he's arbitration eligible, assuming he’s on a team’s roster and not already under contract. Players who qualify for arbitration can negotiate for raises based on their production in comparison to that of their peers. While arbitration eligible players don’t earn as much as they could on the open market and can only negotiate with one team, it can still be a lucrative process with many agreements in excess of $5MM.

Only a small percentage of cases go to hearings each year. Players who do have hearings must defend their filing number in front of a panel of arbitrators (players might attend the hearings, but agents and MLBPA officials would argue on the player’s behalf). After hearing arguments from both sides the panel will either side with the team or the player; there’s no compromising.

Here are some links to posts and resources that will help make sense of arbitration, a fixture in baseball offseasons for four decades:

• MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker offers a look at the many unsigned players plus those who have already agreed to terms.
• MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz listed his projected arbitration salaries and they've been accurate, as usual. Be sure to check out Swartz’s arbitration breakdown series for detailed discussions of major cases. Last winter Swartz broke down arbitration salaries for hitters and pitchers, explaining the importance of innings pitched, home runs and RBI.
• I have weighed in on what matters in arbitration and explained what doesn't apply.
• Tim Dierkes recently examined the stance taken by file and trial teams.
• Teams and players make the headlines, but agencies are an integral part of the process, so check out our Agency Database.
• Plus, a GM discusses some arbitration details, a look at the largest remaining arbitration cases, and an explanation of how free agents were linked to arbitration under the sport's last basic agreement.

When the offseason began, MLBTR had projected arbitration salaries for more than 200 players. Most of those players have agreed to terms with their respective clubs, and many others were non-tendered or otherwise removed from their teams' 40-man rosters. That leaves 29 unsigned arbitration eligible players, including many high profile cases. Using MLBTR's Arbitration Tracker let's take a look at the ten unsigned players who filed for $5MM plus when they exchanged figures with teams one week ago…

• Chase Headley filed for $10.3MM, Padres countered with $7.075MM
• Jason Hammel filed for $8.25MM, Orioles countered with $5.7MM
• Shin-Soo Choo filed for $8MM, Reds countered with $6.75MM
• Max Scherzer filed for $7.4MM, Tigers countered with $6.05MM
• Jim Johnson filed for $7.1MM, Orioles countered with $5.7MM
• Martin Prado filed for $7.05MM, Braves countered with $6.65MM
• Homer Bailey filed for $5.8MM, Reds countered with $4.75MM
• Jordan Zimmermann filed for $5.8MM, Nationals countered with $4.6MM
• Clayton Richard filed for $5.55MM, Padres countered with $4.905MM
• Dexter Fowler filed for $5.15MM, Rockies countered with $4.25MM

The Diamondbacks, who acquired Prado from Atlanta yesterday, will have to defend the Braves’ filing number if they don’t work out a multiyear agreement with their new acquisition. Many others, including Bailey and Zimmermann, are also candidates for multiyear deals.

Hearings will begin next month, though these cases won't necessarily end up going before panels of arbitrators. No file and trial team has any remaining arb eligible players, as Tim Dierkes recently explained. That said, the Nationals have been regulars at arb hearings in recent years, even though they aren't technically a file and trial team.

Early on in the 2012-13 offseason, on the first Monday of November, nine free agents obtained qualifying offers from their former teams. By the Friday of that week, all nine players had declined the offers, which were in play for the first time under baseball's new collective bargaining agreement.

Though the new CBA is still in its first full offseason, much of the mystery that once surrounded qualifying offers has disappeared in the last 11 weeks. Every club has had the chance to pursue players linked to draft pick compensation, and at least one team doesn’t like what it sees. The Mets have already lobbied MLB for modifications to the rules, though it doesn’t seem likely they’ll be granted an exception. Speaking in general terms earlier this month, Rob Manfred, MLB’s executive VP of labor relations, told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that he’s not yet prepared to say baseball’s CBA needs changes.

“I’m not inclined to get into a discussion about changing an agreement when it hasn’t even operated for a full year,” Manfred said.

Despite the limitations imposed by qualifying offers — and it’s no secret that these restrictions reduce interest and depress player salaries — the players that turned them down are doing well to this point in the offseason. As MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker shows, the seven players who signed after declining qualifying offers obtained an average of $50MM, with no player obtaining less than $15MM in guaranteed money.

• Josh Hamilton – five-year, $125MM contract 
• B.J. Upton – five-year, $75MM contract 
• Nick Swisher – four-year, $56MM contract 
• Rafael Soriano – two-year, $28MM contract 
• David Ortiz – two-year, $26MM contract 
• Adam LaRoche – two-year, $24MM contract 
• Hiroki Kuroda – one-year, $15MM contract 
• Michael Bourn – free agent 
• Kyle Lohse – free agent

The group includes two free agents who are both represented by agent Scott Boras: Bourn and Lohse. The market for Bourn appears to be developing, though the market for Lohse remains unclear. As noted earlier, the Mets would like to have the option of sidestepping the rules to sign Bourn. Similarly, Lohse has lamented the effect of the qualifying offer.

Yet as Boras showed when he found a two-year deal for Rafael Soriano, it’s too early to rule out substantial contracts for top free agents. In its short history, the qualifying offer has clearly limited interest in many free agents linked to draft pick compensation. But to this point it hasn’t prevented players from finding lucrative multiyear free agent contracts.

RotoAuthority was my first website, launched in June 2005. The site was brimming with fantasy baseball analysis, often off the beaten path. My posts became sporadic as MLBTR grew, so in recent times I've recruited a team to ensure regular, high-quality content for 2013. The group includes Alex Steers McCrum, Bryan Grosnick, Mark Polishuk, and Steve Adams. We'll be covering everything you need to win your mixed league, including sleepers, busts, rankings, average draft position, and projections. Our newest posts:

• Which aging first basemen qualify as sleepers, and which as busts?  Steve Adams breaks it down.
• Alex Steers McCrum tells us which Brewers starter he's targeting as a sleeper.
• Ian Kinsler faces off with Dustin Pedroia in Mark Polishuk's latest.
• Is Bryce Harper a second round pick?  Alex gives us his take.

I'm pleased to announce our popular Baseball Trade Rumors app now supports the larger screen of the iPhone 5.  The app, which costs $2.99, also supports older iPhones as well as iPads.  It's a great way to read MLBTR posts on your phone ad-free, and also allows you to set up custom push notifications for players and/or teams.  Check out the Baseball Trade Rumors app today! 

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