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MLBTR wishes everyone a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2013. Auld Lang Syne!

As the cliche goes, sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make.  Some teams greatly benefited by standing pat on certain trades or signings during the past year while others may have hurt their prospects for the 2012 season and beyond by not striking when the iron was hot.  Here is a list of some of the most intriguing non-moves (the good and the bad) of 2012…

* Giants don't sign Tim Lincecum to a long-term extension.  San Francisco signed five of their biggest stars to multiyear extensions last offseason, handing out five-year deals to Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner, a three-year deal to Pablo Sandoval and two-year contracts to Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong.  As MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith pointed out in August, four of those deals already look like winners for the Giants, especially given the club's World Series victory two months later.  The one exception was Lincecum's two-year, $40.5MM contract, which suddenly looked like a mistake given how Lincecum struggled in 2012, though "the Freak" seemed to rediscover his form pitching out of the bullpen in the postseason. 

While Lincecum's $22MM salary in 2013 is a short-term concern, the Giants may have escaped larger pain given how they were exploring longer-term, nine-figure contracts with the two-time Cy Young winner last offseason.  Lincecum's stated preference for short-term deals may cost him millions unless he rebounds next year.  If he doesn't, then the Giants can part ways with Lincecum and free up payroll space for another acquisition or for extending Buster Posey.

* Reds don't move Aroldis Chapman to the rotation.  It's always been a matter of when, not if, the Reds would shift Chapman to starting pitching to see if his electric arsenal would translate into being a staff ace.  There were hints Chapman would make the room last spring, but after Ryan Madson underwent Tommy John surgery and was lost for the season, the Reds kept Chapman in the bullpen and eventually slotted him into the closer's job.  The rest was history.  Chapman delivered one of the most phenomenal seasons by a closer in baseball history (1.51 ERA, 5.3 K/BB ratio and 122 strkeouts in 71 2/3 innings) and the Cincinnati rotation didn't miss him, as the Reds' durable five starters combined to make 161 of 162 possible starts. 

One can't help but wonder, however, that the Reds might've gotten further than the NLDS if Chapman had been a starter and delivered anything close to his relief performance.  Now that Cincinnati has re-signed Jonathan Broxton, it looks like we'll finally see Chapman as a starting pitcher in 2013.

* Pirates don't sign Mark Appel.  The Stanford right-hander was considered to be a candidate for the first overall pick of the 2012 amateur draft but fell to the Pirates at #8, possibly due to the expected salary demands from Appel and adviser Scott Boras.  As you would expect, the lower draft standing didn't lower Appel's price tag and the Bucs weren't able to reach an agreement with Appel by the signing deadline, which Boras blamed on a lack of dialogue between Appel and the Pirates before the draft. 

This was the first high-profile instance of the collective bargaining agreement's new draft signing rules coming into play.  Pittsburgh could've gone over slot to sign Appel without any penalty in past years (as ESPN's Keith Law pointed out) whereas under the new rules, the Pirates would've risked losing future draft picks for exceeding their draft cap to sign Appel.  The end result is that Appel will again be one of the top prospects heading into next year's draft, and the Pirates will receive the ninth overall pick in the 2013 draft (considered by some pundits to be a relatively weak class) as compensation for not signing Appel last summer.  Taking the risk on Appel left the Pirates without a top prospect for the year, a setback for an organization that needs as much blue-chip talent as possible.

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Last year, roughly one quarter of the teams in baseball won between 80 and 89 games and all of them missed the playoffs.  This season, we saw the Tigers take the AL Central and the Cardinals grab the second NL Wild Card spot with 88 wins.  Outside of that, you weren't invited to the party in 2012 if you had 80-something victories.  What have those teams within striking distance done so far this winter to bulk up?  As Ben Nicholson-Smith has done over the last two winters, I've broken those clubs in two groups with their 2012 win totals in parentheses and links that send you to the club's offseason transactions summary..

Aggressive Acquirers

• Angels (89) – The Angels are one of two repeat customers this year, with the other being the Dodgers.  After the Dodgers backed up a Brink's truck to sign Zack Greinke, the Halos went into best player available mode and inked Josh Hamilton to a five-year, $125MM deal.  The Angels then took care of their logjam by trading Kendrys Morales to the Mariners for left-hander Jason Vargas.  Meanwhile, their signings of Ryan Madson and Sean Burnett will also help to solidify the bullpen.
• Dodgers (86) – We all knew the Dodgers were going to spend this winter, but it was still jarring to see how much they shelled out for Greinke.  The six-year, $147MM deal landed them the top pitcher on the open market while plucking him away from their intra-market rival.  They also added Hyun-Jin Ryu to the starting five and kept Brandon League in the pen with a three-year deal.  
• Diamondbacks (81) – The Angels didn't need a boost in the outfield when they signed Hamilton and neither did the D'Backs when they landed Cody Ross on a three-year deal.  Even after parting with Chris Young, the Diamondbacks still have Justin Upton, Jason Kubel, and Gerardo Parra in the fold with prospects Adam Eaton and A.J. Pollock waiting in the wings.  It sounds like Upton or Kubel will be moved, and they'll bring back a solid return for Arizona.  GM Kevin Towers also shook things up when he acquired shortstop Didi Gregorius, left-handed pitcher Tony Sipp, and first baseman Lars Anderson in a three-team deal.
• Phillies (81) – The Phillies didn't make a major splash on the free agent market, but they did upgrade with a pair of significant trades early in December.  The Phillies solved their third base vacancy when they got Michael Young from the Rangers.  They were also in need of a center fielder and were heavily linked to Michael Bourn, but they instead went out and got Ben Revere from Minnesota for Vance Worley and Trevor May.  They also picked up a pair of pitchers in the middle of the month in starter John Lannan and reliever Mike Adams.

Restrained Spenders

• White Sox (85) – The White Sox finished three games behind the Tigers for the AL Central crown and they opted against an overhaul heading into 2013.  They got the offseason started with a two-year contract extension for Jake Peavy and so far their biggest free agent pickup is Jeff Keppinger on a three-year, $12MM deal.
  
• Brewers (83) – Kyle Lohse remains unsigned, but don't expect the Brewers to make a play to keep him in the division.  Milwaukee upgraded their pitching by signing Tom Gorzelanny last week and inking Mike Gonzalez to a one-year deal yesterday.
  

With power becoming harder to find, lots of teams are shifting towards a contact-oriented offense. They seek players who can hit for average and put the ball in play to force the defense's hand, move runners over, all sorts of stuff. Few players manage to be above-average at both hitting for power and putting the ball in play, but Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltre, Robinson Cano, and Albert Pujols are among those who pull it off.

The league average strikeout rate in 2012 was 19.8% (of all plate appearances). Marco Scutaro had the lowest strikeout rate among qualified hitters this year (7.2%) while Jose Reyes was second (7.8%). Adam Dunn, on the other hand, had the highest strikeout rate at 34.2%. Only four other players (Pedro Alvarez, Drew Stubbs, Carlos Pena, Chris Davis) were over 30%. Strikeouts are not the only way to identify hitters who can put the ball in play though, especially in the age of PitchFX. Contact rate, which is available at FanGraphs and uses PitchFX data, is the percentage of contact made with individual swings. The league average contact rate was 79.6% this past season, with Scutaro (95.2%) and Josh Hamilton (64.6%) representing the two extremes. No other player was above 92.6% or below 66.9%.

Here are the remaining unsigned free agents who posted better than average strikeout and contact rates in 2012 (min. 200 PA). The lists, as you'll notice, are not identical.

Strikeout Rate

1. Carlos Lee – 8.0%
2. Casey Kotchman – 9.8%
3. Juan Rivera – 10.3%
4. Yuniesky Betancourt – 11.0%
5. Johnny Damon – 12.1%
6. Ryan Theriot – 12.2%
7. Adam Kennedy – 16.4%
8. Jose Lopez – 16.5%
9. Travis Hafner – 17.5%
10. Orlando Hudson – 18.0%
11. Yorvit Torrealba – 18.3%
12. Delmon Young – 18.4%
13. Scott Rolen – 18.8%
14. Rod Barajas – 19.1%

Contact Rate

1. Lee – 89.5%
2. Theriot – 89.3%
3. Damon – 89.2%
4. Kotchman – 87.7%
5. Betancourt – 85.3%
6. Rivera – 84.8%
7. Hudson – 84.6%
8. Kennedy – 84.4%
9. Rolen – 84.0%
10. Lopez – 83.7%
11. Bobby Abreu – 82.9%
12. Jeff Baker – 80.2%
13. Hafner – 79.7%

Damon and Rolen could retire before the end of the offseason, which would further remove from the crop of available contact hitters.

Generally speaking, teams prefer pitchers who get ground balls. Ground balls can sneak through the infield for base hits, but they never go over the fence for a homer and need to be well-placed (down the line, typically) to go for extra bases at all. Great pitchers like David Price, Felix Hernandez, and Clayton Kershaw get both strikeouts and grounders, but few can do both.

The MLB average ground ball rate was 45.1% in 2012, the highest it's been since reliable batted ball data started being recorded in 2002. Trevor Cahill led all qualified pitchers with a 61.2% ground ball rate this past year, and he was the only pitcher over 60%. Phil Hughes had the lowest ground ball rate at 32.4%, making him one of only two pitchers below 35% (Bruce Chen, 32.7%). Here's the short list of unsigned free agent pitchers who posted a better than league average ground ball rate last season (min. 80 IP)…

1. Derek Lowe – 59.2%
2. Aaron Cook – 58.6%
3. Carlos Zambrano – 49.1%

Kevin Millwood (44.7%) fell just short of a league average ground ball rate while both Erik Bedard (43.3%) and Joe Saunders (43.1%) were a little further behind. Kyle Lohse, the best starting pitcher left on the market, generated a ground ball 40.5% of the time this past season. Shaun Marcum is a big time fly ball pitcher, with a 35.4% grounder rate in 2012 and a sub-41% rate in four of his five full big league seasons.

It's worth noting that Carl Pavano, who didn't pitch much in 2012 due to a shoulder problem, had a 50.6% ground ball rate in 2011. Brett Myers, who is looking for a job as a starter, posted a 47.7% ground ball the last time he was a full-time rotation guy.

WEDNESDAY: MLBTR's Tim Dierkes says (on Twitter) teams would not be permitted to make sign-and-trade deals to avoid the draft pick compensation rules. MLB would view it as collusion.

MONDAY: Some executives are already anticipating that clubs will make an effort to find a loophole for free agents attached to draft pick compensation according to ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider req'd). Forfeiting a draft pick for a free agent also means forfeiting the draft pool money associated with that pick, which is very valuable in this age of restricted draft spending.

Olney says teams have already internally discussed a modified sign-and-trade scenario, and he uses the Indians as an example. Since Cleveland has a protected first round pick and forfeited their second rounder to sign Nick Swisher, the next compensation free agent they sign will cause them to lose just a third rounder. They could sign a compensation free agent, then trade that player to another club in a pre-arranged deal, preumably for something deemed a bit more valuable than a third round pick.

The Yankees explored sign-and-trade scenarios with the Diamondbacks for Carl Pavano and Grant Balfour during the 2010-2011 offseason. Michael Bourn, Kyle Lohse, Rafael Soriano, and Adam LaRoche are the remaining unsigned compensation free agents, and there has been a limited market for all four this winter despite their on-field value. Players signed as free agents can not be traded until after June 15th without their written consent, so they would have to be on board with a sign-and-trade scenario.

You might think that finding an innings eater is a simple task, but there were ten teams last season that didn't have a single pitcher crack the 200 inning plateau*.  It helps tremendously to have a pitcher who can give you that level of output.  Statistically, the Blue Jays (73-89) had one of the weaker bullpens in baseball last season with a combined 4.33 ERA with 8.58 K/9 and 3.51 BB/9.  However, their relievers were asked to cover 527 and 2/3 innings.  Had they gotten more work out of their starting rotation, their pen would have had more time to rest and as a result likely would have performed better.

At this point in the offseason, most of the durable starters are off the market.  The Angels picked up on this last week when they flipped Kendrys Morales for Seattle's Jason Vargas, who has logged 611 innings across the last three seasons.  In fact, the only pitcher still available on the open market who pitched more than 200 innings in 2012 is Kyle Lohse, who delivered 211 IP for the Cardinals last season.  Obviously, Lohse will be expected to bring more to the table than just soaking up innings and his contract will reflect that.  Teams looking to get creative can look to a couple of other available names who have demonstrated the ability to go deep into games in years past.

Brett Myers was converted into a reliever in 2012 but says that he hopes to start (and, presumably, command starter money) again in 2013.  The right-hander logged 439 innings between 2010 and 2011 for the Astros.  Shaun Marcum missed a large part of last season with elbow issues, but he hovered around 200 innings in the two years prior to that.  Left-hander Joe Saunders missed the cut in 2012 (174.2 IP), but had no trouble earning the innings eater label in '10 and '11. 

At this time last winter, Saunders, Hiroki Kuroda, and Edwin Jackson stood as the only true innings eaters left available on the market.  There are even fewer free agent options this time around for teams hoping to ease the burden on their bullpen.

*Nationals' innings leader Gio Gonzalez came dangerously close as he pitched 199 and 1/3 innings.  The Rockies are one of the ten clubs, but it should be noted that they earned this distinction by design with their "Project 5,183" system.

A high-powered offense alone won't punch your ticket to the playoffs, but it certainly helps the cause.  The Yankees (95 wins, 804 runs scored), Rangers (93, 808), and Cardinals (88, 765) found their way to the postseason thanks in large part to their top-five offenses.  Meanwhile, the five lowest scoring teams of 2012 all missed the playoffs and averaged out to 69.2 wins on the year. 

We'll take a look at those bottom five teams and see what they've done to improve their offenses so far this offseason.  Team name links go to a summary of the teams' moves on MLBTR's Transaction Tracker and 2012 run totals are in parentheses.  For reference, the average MLB team scored roughly 705 runs this past season.

• Astros (583) – The Astros, along with the Mariners, finished in the offensive cellar two years in a row.  Houston's main upgrade to their offense came with the signing of Carlos Pena to a one-year, $2.9MM deal with $1.4MM in incentives.  Pena has been an offensive force in years past, but struggled mightily at the plate in 2012 with a .197/.330/.354 slash line, a career-high 182 strikeouts, and just 19 homers – his lowest total in a healthy season since 2003.
• Marlins (609) – Some expected the Marlins to make a play for Alex Rodriguez in an effort to bolster their offense, but their massive November trade with Toronto made it clear that those kinds of acquisitions weren't in the cards.  The deal shipped Jose Reyes out of town and brought back Adeiny Hechavarria, a 23-year-old shorstop who has promise but doesn't project to do much offensively.  Miami signed Placido Polanco to a one-year, $2.75MM contract, but he'll have to improve from his .281/.330/.356 batting line over the last three years to make a big impact.
• Cubs (613) – The Cubs spent the bulk of their money on pitching but they also made a few low-cost signings to re-tool their offense.  Theo Epstein & Co. signed Nate Schierholtz to a one-year, $2.25MM deal, plucking him away from other suitors such as the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Orioles, and Mets.  Another strong year from Alfonso Soriano would help propel Chicago's offense, but the Cubs may eat a big portion of the $36MM owed to him to get his salary off of the books and get a solid prospect in return.
• Mariners (619) – Last week, Seattle shipped left-hander Jason Vargas to the Angels for first baseman Kendrys Morales.  The 29-year-old posted a .273/.320/.467 batting line with 22 home runs in 522 plate appearances for the Angels in 2012 after missing the entire 2011 campaign with a leg injury.  The M's also picked up Raul Ibanez last week on a one-year, $2.75MM deal and signed Jason Bay to a low-risk $1MM contract.
• Dodgers (637) – The Dodgers won't be lacking in firepower in 2013 thanks to their blockbuster trade with the Red Sox in August.  Adrian Gonzalez admitted that he was pressing last season as he looked to adjust to a new team and market.  Carl Crawford will be back in action after missing the bulk of 2012 and will join Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier to form a tremendously strong starting outfield.