Stephen Strasburg Opts Out Of Nationals Contract
10:20 pm: Boras and the Nationals plan to start re-negotiating Strasburg’s deal on Sunday, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (link). Of course, that’s no guarantee that the two sides will come to an accord, but it’s certainly noteworthy that both parties appear committed to sustaining a working relationship.
9:28 pm: In a development that promises to have far-reaching implications on this offseason’s free agent market, starter Stephen Strasburg has decided to opt out of the remaining four years and $100MM on his contract with the Nationals, as first reported by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (link). As Feinsand notes in a follow-up tweet, the present-day value of the remaining money on his Nationals deal is closer to $88MM, due to the original agreement’s heavily deferred structure (link).
To say that Strasburg heads to the open market with momentum at his back would be a gross understatement. Always an excellent pitcher when healthy, the 31-year-old truly put it all together in 2019, leading his league in both innings pitched and wins, while maintaining typically pristine ERA (3.32) and strikeout (10.81 K/9) marks across 33 starts. And for a follow-up? The San Diego State product and former #1 overall pick laid waste to postseason hitters, allowing just 8 earned runs through 36.1 October innings; his two starts in the Fall Classic were dominant enough to see the righty named 2019’s World Series MVP, despite some tough competition from his offensive teammates. Strasburg will likely garner a fair deal of Cy Young support and now heads into free agency for the first time in his career with superagent Scott Boras as his sidekick.
The prevailing sense around D.C. has long been that the pitcher’s historical allegiance to the team that drafted him would lead to the two parties working out an extension. After all, it was just in 2016 that the hurler decided to extend with a seven-year, $175MM deal with Washington in advance of his impending free agency–a true rarity for a Boras client. However, today’s 12pm EST deadline for his opt-out decision came and went without word, and it appears that both parties declined to arrange a deadline extension to help facilitate negotiation around a new deal, as occurred with the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw last offseason.
Instead, Mike Rizzo and his Washington front office will likely find themselves negotiating for the starter’s services against the bidding of several other competing organizations in short order. All of the teams in Strasburg’s native Southern California appear as logical fits, with the Padres, Angels, and Dodgers all projecting to have both spending capacity and rotation needs this winter.
Nationals To Exercise Options On Eaton, Doolittle; Decline Options On Zimmerman, Gomes
Still in the afterglow of their World Series victory, it appears that the Nationals are deciding to decline their $18MM club option on first baseman Ryan Zimmerman, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (link). Catcher Yan Gomes will also have his $9MM option declined, while outfielder Adam Eaton ($9.5MM) and reliever Sean Doolittle ($6.5MM) will both see their 2020 options exercised, per Heyman (link).
As was suggested by our own Jeff Todd when Washington declined their option on Matt Adams yesterday, a decline of Zimmerman’s option was easy to foresee. Although he remains something of a franchise icon, the 35-year-old is several years removed from the kind of production that would warrant a salary approaching $20MM. A member of the club’s inaugural 2005 squad, Zimmerman was an All-Star in his heyday, logging a twin pair of 6.6 fWAR seasons in 2009 and 2010. However, the righty swinger has cobbled just 1.4 fWAR over the last two campaigns in spot duty, combining for a modestly above-average 107 wRC+ in that span. It would be not unthinkable for the club to bring him back as veteran depth on a more reasonable one-year term.
The club’s decision on Gomes also rates as rather predictable, even given a relative dearth of catching available on the free agent market this winter. After logging what appeared to be a rebound year with the Indians in 2018, Gomes came back down to earth with a .223/.316/.389 slash line across 358 plate appearances in D.C. this past season. Defensively, 2019 was an essentially mediocre campaign from the 32-year-old, with Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric pegging him with a -1.0 FRAA. The Nationals will owe Gomes a $1MM buyout.
Heading into 2019, Eaton’s option may have seemed something of a toss-up after injuries robbed him of the majority of his 2018 and 2017 seasons. His production this past season was right in line with career averages, however, as his blend of high-contact, on-base ability made him an above-average offensive contributor (107 wRC+). He was merely a passable defensive option in the outfield corners (as his -0.8 UZR would suggest), but a .279/.365/.428 line with 15 homers and 15 steals is essentially tailor-made for the top of a team’s lineup, making his option a clear value.
Doolittle had an up-and-down 2019 that saw him lose sole ownership of the closer’s role in the season’s second half amidst injury and performance concerns. Still, the lefty’s 9.90 K/9 rate, 2.25 BB/9 rate, and 4.05 ERA across 60 regular-season innings represent acceptable relief production in today’s offensively inclined climate.
Nationals Decline Mutual Option On Matt Adams
The Nationals announced today that they have declined their side of a $4MM mutual option on first baseman Matt Adams. He’ll instead receive a $1MM buyout and head back onto the open market.
While it’s still possible Adams could return again to D.C., perhaps it’s likelier he’ll move along elsewhere after a disappointing campaign. While he put in a solid early showing this year, Adams faded to a .217/.277/.406 line with sixty strikeouts over his final 155 plate appearances on the year.
At his best, Adams is a well-above-average hitter against right-handed pitching. But the 31-year-old has never enjoyed sustained productivity when facing southpaws and is likely only a candidate for platoon/pinch-hitting duties.
It remains to be seen what direction the Nats will take at first base following their epic finish to the 2019 campaign. Ryan Zimmerman could return on a lesser deal once his option is formally declined, with Adams or another lefty bat joining the roster to share time. Or Zimmerman could hang up his spikes after the thrill of finally raising a trophy, in which case the D.C. organization could go in any number of different directions.
Max Scherzer Scratched From Game 5 Start
5:54 pm: At a pregame media session, Scherzer told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASN) that he is also dealing with nerve irritation in his neck. The ace added that he underwent a cortisone shot that will take approximately 48 hours to kick in, seemingly putting to rest any hope he could return in Tuesday’s Game 6. He remains on the Nationals’ World Series roster, but those in attendance at this evening’s media session (including Todd Dybas of NBC Sports) seemed less than optimistic about his chances of returning by Wednesday’s potential Game 7.
3:36 pm: Nationals starter Max Scherzer, who was slated to start Sunday’s World Series game five, has been scratched from his start, according to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. In his place, Joe Ross will take the mound for the Nationals. Per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post, Scherzer has been dealing with spasms in his neck and right trapezius.
Manager Dave Martinez told reporters that Scherzer began experiencing spasms last night, and woke up this morning in worse condition, rendering him unable to go tonight. Martinez also said that the Nationals will keep Scherzer on the roster in hopes that he shows enough improvement in the next couple of days to pitch in either game six or seven (if necessary). As of now, the Nats plan to start Stephen Strasburg in game six on Tuesday, with the possibility that Scherzer could be available in relief, or as the starter for a potential seventh game.
Martinez noted that Scherzer’s injury influenced his bullpen management in last night’s loss: he refrained from using Joe Ross, bracing for the possibility that Scherzer may not be able to start Sunday’s game. It’s also notable that neither Sean Doolittle nor Daniel Hudson, the Nats’ two most reliable relievers, has pitched since game one last Tuesday, meaning that Martinez might be able to stretch them out if he can’t get sufficient length from Ross.
Scherzer’s injury is a crucial development in a virtual must-win fifth game. With Gerrit Cole on the hill for the Astros, it was already going to be a tough game, but without their ace on the mound, the Nationals will have to count on Joe Ross, who found his stride in August and September. The freshness of the bullpen will help the Nats’ cause, with the possibility that both Doolittle and Hudson could be asked to get six outs each.
Manager Notes: Bogar, Bochy, Martinez
Veteran baseball man Dave Magadan can be counted as one vocal supporter of Mets managerial candidate Tim Bogar, as the longtime MLB coach spoke of Bogar’s virtues to Mike Puma of The New York Post (link). Magadan, who has worked with Bogar on several coaching staffs, describes Bogar as a “sharp”, “attention-to-detail guy” capable of integrating analytics while still relating to players. Magadan says that coaches and players were very surprised that Bogar didn’t get the Rangers managing job that he held in an interim capacity after the resignation of Ron Washington in 2014. “We all thought he was going to get the job there in Texas,” Magadan says in Puma’s article. “Especially after we turned things around that last month, and it didn’t happen and we were all kind of surprised.” The Rangers ultimately gave the full-time gig to Jeff Banister despite Bogar’s 14-8 interim record, while Bogar ended up undertaking some front office work with the Angels before a coaching stop with the Mariners and, ultimately, the Nationals. Bogar interviewed with Mets leadership for the second time on Thursday, although Eduardo Perez has since been described as the “front runner” for the position.
More manager-centric notes from around the game…
- The Red Sox, Padres, and Indians are speculated as three potential landing spots for Bruce Bochy if the former Giants manager decides to make a 2021 dugout return, reads a piece from Grant Brisbee of The Athletic (link). Brisbee sees current Sox manager Alex Cora as “probably safe, but not with another disappointing season”. While it may seem odd at first glance to envision a Cora-Bochy transition, the writer is probably justified in believing that Boston’s leadership will likely have World Series-or-bust aspirations under new GM Chaim Bloom, given that the club has shown a willingness to move on from championship-winning executives like Ben Cherington and Dave Dombrowski in recent years.
- Rustin Dodd of The Athletic identifies Dave Martinez‘s bilingual capabilities as a key ingredient to the manager’s success (link). Dodd relays a tale from Martinez’s experiences as a player in the Puerto Rican winter leagues, where his lack of Spanish fluency did nothing to endear him to local fans and media (one game saw a 6-foot piece of barbed wire thrown in Martinez’s direction, according to the story). These early struggles promoted Martinez to turn to Benito Santiago and Juan Nieves for Spanish instruction. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo, for one, believes that those skills have been vital to Martinez’s relationships with young players like Juan Soto and Victor Robles. This piece comes just days after–according to reports–the Spanish skills of new Padres manager Jayce Tingler were considered a decisive factor in his hiring. In 2019, game-wide Opening Day rosters featured 251 players of international origin, with 102 of those players hailing from the Dominican Republic. It stands to reason that Spanish-speaking managers like Martinez and Tingler may soon become the overwhelming norm as the demographics of MLB continue to evolve.
Latest On Kurt Suzuki
5:14 pm: Suzuki will remain on the Nationals’ World Series roster, with Barry Svrluga of The Washington Post describing the catcher as “good to go” (link). Suzuki underwent an MRI earlier today, according to Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington (link).
Oct 25: Not only did the Nationals drop Game 3 of the World Series to the Astros on Friday, but they may have suffered a notable loss behind the plate. Kurt Suzuki departed early with a right hip flexor injury, manager Dave Martinez told Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post and other reporters. It’s not yet clear whether Suzuki will undergo an MRI.
This adds to an injury-laden month and a half for Suzuki, who missed a large portion of September while dealing with elbow issues. Suzuki has returned to serve as the Nationals’ No. 1 catcher for most of their playoff run this month, even though he took a 94 mph Walker Buehler fastball off the wrist and face in Game 5 of the NLDS against the Dodgers.
The physical beating the 36-year-old Suzuki has taken since September may help explain his recent struggles on the offensive side. After hitting a respectable .264/.324/.486 with 17 home runs in 309 regular-season plate appearances, Suzuki has fallen to 3 for 30 in the playoffs. He did homer in the Nats’ Game 2 rout over the Astros, however.
Looking ahead to Game 4, when the Nats will try for a commanding a 3-1 lead, Yan Gomes is likely to catch starter Patrick Corbin even if Suzuki’s hip problem isn’t serious. Gomes has regularly been the club’s choice at catcher when Corbin has taken the mound. As for Suzuki, Washington figures to know more on the severity of his hip troubles Saturday.
The Nationals’ “Bottom-Up” Analytics Strategy
The Nationals are well known as one of MLB’s organizations still reliant on an old-school, if not yet antiquated scouting infrastructure. Much of this stems from GM Mike Rizzo, a former scout and scouting director himself. They are not, of course, blind to analytics, and as is the case with all front office these days, the way they blend traditional scouting with the use of analytics is what makes the footprint of their front office particular.
Their first-ever analyst hire, in fact, now serves as an assistant general manager. Sam Mondry-Cohen, a former bat boy, is a key figure in deploying the Nats “bottom-up” strategy to analytics, per Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. Mondry-Cohen and Rizzo stress the importance of clubhouse temperament to the utilization of their data, letting their players dictate to a large degree where and how data is utilized. The Nats organizational philosophy is more transparent than ever this season with mood-manager extraordinaire Davey Martinez helming a rambunctious veteran clubhouse that credits their on-field success to baby sharks, dugout dances, and group hugs.
The Nationals also credit themselves for mixing analytics with instinct in deploying a quick-strike offseason strategy that netted key players like Patrick Corbin, Yan Gomes, Brian Dozier and Kurt Suzuki last offseason. Bottomless sieves of data and a competitive landscape rich with intelligent front offices can make decision-making a slog, but the Nationals try not to dwell when instinct can kick-in. It’s served them well, as the Nationals have eight straight winning seasons and a new NL pennant banner to hang.
Once the World Series is finished, it will be interesting to see how this front office values their own free agents. The group includes obvious notables like Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon, but surprise elite contributors like Howie Kendrick and Daniel Hudson also enter the free market, as does the captain of their folk hero superteam: Gerardo Parra.
Nationals Notes: Morton, Anibal, Suzuki, Trades
After two huge road wins over the Astros in the first two games of the World Series, the Nationals are headed back to Washington in command of the Fall Classic. Here’s the latest on the NL champs….
- Charlie Morton in a Nationals jersey? It could’ve happened last winter, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Washington pursued the veteran righty, and the Nats “believe they were the runners-up” to the Rays for Morton’s services. The Nationals made a offer similar to the Rays’ two-year, $30MM deal with Morton, though the turning point may have been Tampa’s closer proximity to Morton’s offseason home in Bradenton, Florida. On paper, it would seem like Morton’s decision paved the way for the Nats to ink Anibal Sanchez to a two-year, $19MM deal, though Sherman writes that the Nationals considered signing both Morton and Sanchez, not to mention their blockbuster signing of Patrick Corbin earlier in the offseason.
- Speaking of Sanchez, the idea of him starting Game 3 of the World Series would’ve seemed far-fetched two years ago, when the veteran righty’s career seemed to be on thin ice after struggling during the last three seasons of his five-year, $80MM contract with the Tigers. Since then, however, Sanchez has gotten back on track in a major way, as MLB.com’s Mike Petriello notes that no pitcher has a lower percentage of hard-hit balls over the last two seasons than Sanchez. Reasons for the turn-around could include Sanchez’s increased prep work between starts, or a change in pitch usage, as the veteran hurler has greatly increased the use of his cutter and mostly abandoned his slider, formerly one of his primary offerings.
- Sanchez also cited his relationship with catcher Kurt Suzuki as a big factor in his improved performance with both the Braves and Nationals, another example of how Suzuki has himself enjoyed something of a late-career renaissance. As The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) writes, Suzuki considered retiring following the 2016 season, and was hesitant about leaving his family in California to sign a one-year contract and play across the country with the Braves. His wife convinced him to take the deal, however, and achieve Suzuki’s goal of ten full seasons of MLB service. That clock is now running at well over 12 seasons and counting, as Suzuki has enjoyed three of his best seasons at the plate in 2017-19, and is now perhaps closing in on his first World Series ring.
- Finally winning a championship would be the ultimate payoff to years of aggressive moves from GM Mike Rizzo and the Nationals’ front office, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post writes. Prospects such as Lucas Giolito, Jesus Luzardo, and Sheldon Neuse were dealt to the White Sox and Athletics in trades that brought the likes of Adam Eaton and Sean Doolittle to Washington, and the Nationals are comfortable seeing their former prospects go on to MLB stardom for other teams. “It’s difficult to win consistently and have a good farm system because you use your prospect capital to acquire major league players. But that’s been our plan the whole time,” Rizzo said. It helps that the Nats have been hung onto some prospects (i.e. Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Stephen Strasburg) who have turned into major homegrown stars, while also scoring in other trades that brought other big names like Trea Turner into the organization as youngsters.
Spencer Kieboom Elects Free Agency
OCT. 24: Kieboom has elected free agency, according to the PCL transactions page.
OCT. 22: The Nationals are preparing for Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday, but that’s not stopping their front office from handling other business. The club outrighted catcher Spencer Kieboom to Triple-A Fresno on Monday, per the Pacific Coast League transactions page. As someone who has been outrighted previously, Kieboom will have a chance to elect free agency.
Kieboom, the brother of standout Nationals shortstop prospect Carter Kieboom, has been a member of the organization since going in Round 5 of the 2012 draft. Spencer Kieboom was a decently regarded prospect in his own right a few years back, though he hasn’t been able to carve out a consistent big league role thus far.
Kieboom got his only real taste of the majors in 2018, when a patient, low-strikeout approach helped him post a playable on-base percentage. However, a lack of power limited Kieboom to a .232/.322/.320 line over his 143 plate appearances. The 28-year-old didn’t make it back to Washington or even play with Fresno this season, instead spending all of it with Double-A Harrisburg. Kieboom batted just .196/.271/.256 in 188 PA before an elbow injury cut his season short.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Nationals
The thrilling first game of the World Series just wrapped up with Washington pulling off a 5-4 victory in Houston. If you’re a neutral observer, you may be hoping for six more games just like that one. However long the series lasts, though, both teams stand to see some key contributors reach the open market thereafter. Let’s start with a review of the Nationals’ pending free agents…
Anthony Rendon, 3B:
- I’m not going to tell you anything you don’t already know in regards to Rendon. The 29-year-old is coming off yet another world-class season, perhaps an MVP-level campaign, and is finally getting the national recognition his play has long warranted. As hands down the premier soon-to-be free-agent position player, Rendon has a strong case for a guarantee worth $225MM or more.
Brian Dozier, 2B:
- Dozier was an elite second baseman with the Twins for a few years leading up to 2018, but he hasn’t been the same player dating back to then. After a down season divided between the Twins and Dodgers, the Nationals signed Dozier to a one-year, $9MM contract last winter. Dozier enjoyed somewhat of a bounce-back regular season, hitting .238/.340/.430 with 20 home runs and 1.7 fWAR in 482 plate appearances. That’s still not great production, though, and odds are the 32-year-old will have to settle for another single-season guarantee (very likely for less money) in his next trip to free agency.
Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B/3B:
- As with Dozier, Kendrick’s likely heading for a one-year deal. However, in Kendrick’s case, that has far more to do with age than performance. After all, the long-solid Kendrick, 36, has been an offensive machine all season. Kendrick slashed a jaw-dropping .344/.395/.572 with 17 homers in 370 PA during the regular campaign, when Statcast more than backed up his bottom-line output. Just four qualified hitters (some names you may recognize in Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich and Nelson Cruz) outdid Kendrick’s .418 expected weighted on-base average. Kendrick has further cemented himself in Washington lore with a productive postseason, with his decisive grand slam in Game 5 of the team’s NLDS victory over the Dodgers sure to count among the franchise’s greatest moments for decades to come.
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/3B:
- The 33-year-old Cabrera has been an outstanding in-season pickup for Washington, which grabbed him off the scrapheap after Texas released him in early August. Cabrera was only a .235/.318/.393 hitter at that point, but he slashed an excellent .323/.404/.565 in 146 regular-season PA after donning a Nats uniform. Cabrera’s D.C. production should be enough to earn him another guaranteed deal in the offseason.
Gerardo Parra, OF:
- It’s hard to believe, but Parra has turned into a folk hero in Washington since the club brought him on a low-cost deal toward the beginning of May. At that point, Parra was the owner of a paltry .546 OPS and someone the Giants understandably jettisoned despite obvious needs in their outfield. Not only has Parra hit a much-improved .250/.300/.447 in 204 trips to the plate since then, but his “Baby Shark” intro has helped make him a fan and clubhouse favorite. It doesn’t look as if Parra would be a bad investment on what’s sure to be another low-paying deal.
Daniel Hudson, RP:
- The hard-throwing Hudson didn’t appear to be an exciting addition for the Nationals when they acquired him from the Blue Jays at the July trade deadline, but he has since established himself an indispensable part of their bullpen. Hudson pitched to a 1.44 ERA (with a 3.53 FIP) and totaled 23 strikeouts against two walks in 25 regular-season innings as a Nat. The brilliance has largely continued in the postseason for the 32-year-old, who has thrown seven frames of one-earned run ball and converted all four of his save chances. Hudson had to settle for a $1.5MM contract with the Jays right before the season started, but he should do far better next time. A two-year deal in the $10MM range could be in the offing this winter.
Jeremy Hellickson, RHP:
- Hellickson was a quality member of the Nationals’ pitching staff in 2018, which led the club to bring back the former AL Rookie of the Year on a $1.3MM guarantee last winter. At that price, it was a gamble worth taking for the Nationals, but it didn’t work out. The 32-year-old Hellickson struggled into May before missing the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Assuming Hellickson signs somewhere in the offseason, he’ll be getting a minor league pact.
Fernando Rodney, RP:
- This season has been a wild ride for the 42-year-old Rodney, who bombed with the Athletics in the early going, got his release in late May, signed a minors deal with the Nats a week later and is now part of a World Series roster. The nomadic arrow slinger tossed 33 1/3 regular-season innings of 4.05 ERA/3.72 FIP ball and posted 9.5 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9 after the Nationals brought him up in late June. Rodney has added 2 2/3 scoreless frames during the playoffs. Will that be enough for Rodney to pick up a major league deal over the winter? Perhaps, but he’s obviously not going to break the bank.
Jonny Venters, RP:
- Venters, who has seemingly overcome one awful injury after another during his career, will have to do so yet again. No stranger to the operating table, Venters underwent yet another serious procedure (on a torn capsule in his left shoulder) in August. The 34-year-old’s career could conceivably be over, though he’ll try to get off the mat one more time.