Nationals “Leery” Of Asking Price On Dallas Keuchel
The Nationals’ trade of right-hander Tanner Roark again puts Joe Ross and Erick Fedde atop the team’s list of options in the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, meaning they’ll once again be on the hunt for starters. To that end, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports that the Nats have interest in top lefty Dallas Keuchel but are “leery of giving him the five- or six-year deal he seeks.”
That’s the first word on the asking price for Keuchel, and it’s a fairly steep one, as most would expect. Of course, early asking prices are always going to be high — typically higher than the eventual landing point. If agent Scott Boras and Keuchel are ultimately seeking four to five years, for instance, it’s only natural to see them set out asking for five to six years. MLBTR estimated a four-year, $82MM deal for Keuchel at the outset of free agency, and a recent reader poll saw only about 15 percent of respondents believe a five-year pact was within reach.
Keuchel, 31 on New Year’s Day, is the top remaining starter in free agency but is one of several available pitchers to whom the Nationals have been linked since trading Roark. In the 48 hours since that swap, Washington has been tied to Yusei Kikuchi, Anibal Sanchez and Wade Miley. Keuchel would give the Nationals a virtually unparalleled top four alongside Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin but would also quite likely give the Nats an unheard of four starting pitchers with annual salaries in excess of $20MM. Like Corbin before him, Keuchel would cost the Nationals a pick in next year’s draft by virtue of the fact that he rejected a $17.9MM qualifying offer.
As for those wondering about the wisdom behind trading Roark only to immediately search for a replacement, it’s possible that the organization simply felt Roark’s rising arbitration price — MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegged him at $9.8MM — outpaced reasonable expectations for his performance in 2019. Roark’s strikeout, swinging-strike, home-run and ground-ball rates all went in the wrong direction in 2018, as did his velocity.
In the meantime, the Nats added a 100-mph arm, Tanner Rainey, in exchange for Roark’s final season of team control. While Rainey’s MLB cameo in 2018 was unequivocally brutal (19 runs on 13 hits and 12 walks with seven strikeouts in just seven innings), he also notched a 2.95 ERA with 13.5 K/9 across the past two minor league seasons. Walks were still an issue in the minors, though, as he averaged 5.4 free passes per nine innings pitched.
Quick Hits: Maxwell, Nats, Marwin, Twins, Herrera, Cubs, DeRosa
Free-agent catcher Bruce Maxwell hasn’t found a team since the Athletics outrighted him in September, and it doesn’t appear that’s going to change in the near future, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle explains. While Maxwell was arrested on a gun charge in 2017 and later pleaded guilty to disorderly conduct, he’s unemployed for a different reason, a major league executive told Slusser at the Winter Meetings.
“It’s the kneeling thing that might keep him from getting another job, not the arrest. Owners aren’t going to want to deal with that whole anthem issue,” the executive said of Maxwell, who in 2017 became the first and only major leaguer to kneel for the national anthem in protest of racial injustice.
Conversely, another source contended to Slusser that Maxwell’s not comparable to former 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who began kneeling for the national anthem in 2016. Despite a respectable on-field career and a clean off-field record, Kaepernick, 31, has been out of the NFL for two seasons. “This is not a Colin Kaepernick situation,” said the source. “This is if Colin Kaepernick had knelt for the anthem and also been arrested for a gun crime.”
Aside from Maxwell’s arrest, there are concerns over a 2017 incident in an Alabama restaurant, per Slusser, who also notes that the 27-year-old showed up overweight to spring training last season. Both Maxwell’s conditioning issues and a poor spring performance helped ruin his once-decent chance of becoming the A’s starting catcher in 2018. He ended up having a miserable season at the Triple-A level, and has since fired agent Matt Sosnick. As Slusser details, Sosnick reached out to every team multiple times trying to score a minor league deal for Maxwell, but no one bit. Slusser’s piece is worth checking out for Sosnick’s quotes on his ex-client.
More from around the majors…
- The Nationals have shown reported interest in free-agent infielder Josh Harrison, though they “seem to prefer” Marwin Gonzalez to him, Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post writes. Most (if not all) teams would take Gonzalez over Harrison, which is why the former figures to rake in an especially lucrative payday this offseason. Nevertheless, this is the first connection of the offseason between the Nationals and Gonzalez, who can play up to six positions but could be their solution at second base. He’d also give the Nationals yet another Scott Boras client.
- The Twins have interest in free-agent reliever Kelvin Herrera, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports. The club knows Herrera well from his days with division-rival Kansas City, where he pitched from 2011 until the Royals traded him to Washington last June. The hard-throwing 28-year-old didn’t perform well with the Nats, though, and then saw his season end in late August on account of a torn Lisfranc ligament in his left foot. However, Herrera’s progressing in his recovery from that injury.
- With bench coach Brandon Hyde seemingly on his way out of the organization, the Cubs have begun seeking a replacement. It doesn’t appear the job will go to beloved ex-Cub David Ross, who’s content working as both a special assistant to their front office and an ESPN analyst, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score suggests. The team has contacted former major league infielder/outfielder and current MLB Network analyst Mark DeRosa to gauge his interest in the job, according to Levine. If there’s not a match between the Cubs and DeRosa – who declined to interview for the Rangers’ managerial post after the season – Dodgers special advisor Raul Ibanez and two of the Cubs’ minor league skippers (Buddy Bailey and Mark Johnson) could be candidates, Levine posits.
NL Rumors: Realmuto, Mets, Marlins, Pads, Myers, Bucs, D-backs, Rendon
The Mets’ ongoing pursuit of Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto has dominated headlines this week, and Tim Healey of Newsday sheds more light on the teams’ talks. While the Marlins are interested in all three of Amed Rosario, Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto and reportedly want more than one of those players for Realmuto, it doesn’t seem that’s going to happen, per Healey. Rather, only one member of that trio – likely Nimmo or Conforto – would headline Miami’s return, according to Healey, who adds that the Marlins also like Mets infield prospects Andres Gimenez, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos. All three of those players rank among the Mets’ top prospects, with MLB.com placing Gimenez first, Mauricio sixth and Vientos eighth.
- Whether via trade or free agency, the Padres will “absolutely” acquire a third baseman this offseason, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com relays. Picking up hot corner help is the club’s No. 1 priority, Cassavell offers, as corner infielder/outfielder Wil Myers isn’t an ideal fit there, main 2018 starter Christian Villanueva immigrated to Japan and the Padres released Cory Spangenberg. But if Myers isn’t going to play third, it further calls into question what the Padres will do with him this offseason. San Diego is committed to Eric Hosmer at first base and has a host of of other outfielders, after all, and Myers has come up in recent trade speculation. However, despite Myers’ so-so production from 2017-18 and the remaining $64MM on his contract, it seems the Padres remain bullish on him. Indeed, they’re not going to trade Myers for anything but “the right offer,” Cassavell notes. His presence may make one or more of his fellow Padres outfielders expendable, though Cassavell suggests it’s no sure thing they’ll trade anyone from the group.
- Having lost Jordy Mercer in free agency, the Pirates have spoken to the Diamondbacks about shortstop Nick Ahmed this week, Adam Berry of MLB.com reports. The defensively adept Ahmed, 28, is coming off a career-best offensive season, albeit one in which he still hit just .234/.290/.411 (84 wRC+) in 564 plate appearances. He’s under control for two more years and will make a projected $3.1MM in 2019. That would be an affordable sum for Pittsburgh, but Berry explains that the team’s content to roll with in-house shortops Erik Gonzalez and Kevin Newman if it doesn’t land Ahmed or another veteran option.
- It’s well-documented that the Nationals could lose one of their elite players, outfielder Bryce Harper, to free agency this year. And the team may be in a similar position 12 months from now if third baseman Anthony Rendon, who’s entering a contract year, doesn’t sign an extension. However, general manager Mike Rizzo is optimistic the Nationals will prevent Rendon from leaving, Jamal Collier of MLB.com writes. “I think Anthony wants to be here, I think he wants to be here long term,” Rizzo said. “And we want him here. Hopefully there’s a deal that transpires out of goodwill between the two sides.” According to agent Scott Boras (also Harper’s representative), Washington’s “very aware” of what it has in Rendon, who has “been in the top 10 players in the game in the last three or four years.” Boras is always one to talk up his clients, but he’s not exaggerating in Rendon’s case, as the 28-year-old ranks seventh among position players in fWAR (17.3) dating back to 2016.
Pitching Notes: Gray, Lynn, Morton, Breslow
The Yankees are asking for “high-end Major League talent” in exchange for Sonny Gray, George A. King III of the New York Post hears from an official on a team interested in acquiring the right-hander. This isn’t the first time we’ve heard of the Yankees’ steep asking price for Gray, though as King notes, it may be a while before a trade emerges unless the club is willing to lower its demands. One can’t blame the Yankees for aiming high, and there’s certainly enough interest in Gray that the team can shop around, though the Yankees may not have quite enough leverage to make such a big ask. Intriguing peripherals notwithstanding, Gray did have a 4.90 ERA last season, and he has become even more of an expendable piece now that the Yankees are on the verge of re-signing J.A. Happ. With Happ, Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, and C.C. Sabathia all in the fold, there isn’t even any room for Gray in New York’s rotation if the club hangs onto him until Opening Day.
More on the ever-developing pitching market…
- The Nationals were considering Lance Lynn for their rotation, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports (via Twitter), but they weren’t willing to give the veteran righty the three-year guarantee Lynn seems to have found from the Rangers. Lynn would have filled the rotation spot left open now that Tanner Roark has been dealt to the Reds, though with Lynn off the board, Washington will keep looking at other veteran arms.
- The Twins weren’t one of the teams interested in Charlie Morton, according to 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter link). Minnesota is known to be on the lookout for pitching, though the Twins have thus far been more focused on position player additions (i.e. Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron) than new arms. The Astros, Rangers, and Rays were the only teams known to be looking at the veteran right-hander, who agreed to a two-year, $30MM guarantee with Tampa Bay yesterday. One would imagine more teams beyond just that trio checked in on Morton, given the righty’s impressive numbers over the last two seasons.
- Veteran southpaw Craig Breslow is considering retirement, and has been talking with the Red Sox and other teams about non-playing jobs, NBC Sports Boston’s Evan Drellich writes. The 38-year-old Breslow pitched in the Blue Jays’ minor league system in 2018, and wasn’t able to crack the big league roster in order to add a 13th Major League season to his resume. Breslow has long been seen as a candidate to move into a front office, managerial, or coaching role once he decided to hang up his spikes, and he is exploring all options as he considers whether or not to move onto this next stage or to continue pitching.
Pitching Notes: Nats, Jays, White Sox, Athletics
The Nationals already seemed like a possible ongoing pursuer of starting pitching before trading away Tanner Roark; now, it’s all but inevitable that the club will add another new arm. Veteran free agents Wade Miley and Anibal Sanchez are both on the Nats’ radar, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links), though it’s not clear whether either is particularly likely to land in D.C. Both hurlers turned in excellent results in 2018 after overcoming injuries, with the latter relying on his ability to induce groundballs and the latter finally overcoming his home run woes. Sustainability remains a question, of course, as each has had his share of struggles in seasons prior.
- Whether the Nats will also be exploring higher-end pitching options isn’t yet fully clear, but president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo did say today that the club is performing “due diligence” on Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, as Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com tweets. Given the wide interest that the 27-year-old has drawn to this point, it seems safe to assume the Nationals are at least open to making another significant rotation addition this winter.
- It’s still far too soon to know how the market will develop for Kikuchi, but we keep hearing of teams that wish to be involved to some degree. The Blue Jays intend to sit down with the 27-year-old lefty, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter), adding another organization. Though the Toronto club in no way profiles as a 2019 contender — most of the talk has surrounded its possible marketing of its own pitching — it surely has designs on a fairly quick bounce back and may view Kikuchi as a nice target to provide some good innings both now and in the future.
- White Sox GM Rick Hahn says he’s not likely to add a significant starter via free agency (via James Fegan of The Athletic, on Twitter), but that evidently won’t stop him from checking in at the top of the market for relievers. The Chicago organization has “shown interest” in veteran hurler Adam Ottavino, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports on Twitter. It’ll likely cost a pretty penny to reel in the talented right-hander, who is also a clear target for more obvious contenders, though perhaps the White Sox will plan to offer him and others a chance to work as the closer.
- It seems the Athletics are contemplating another bullpen buildout after succeeding with that strategy in 2018. Rosenthal tweets that the organization is interested in a reunion with Jeurys Familia, who certainly also ought to draw quite a few hits from other teams, particularly since he only just turned 29. While the rotation is an obvious need in Oakland, Rosenthal says it’s one that’s likelier to be met at a later point in the offseason — with “inexpensive” arms. It sounds as if the A’s won’t be driving the market on any of their top free agent targets. The search for diamonds in the rough paid out handsomely last winter, but hitting it rich again will surely be a challenge.
Reds Acquire Tanner Roark
The Reds have announced the acquisition of veteran righty Tanner Roark from the Nationals. Reliever Tanner Rainey goes to Washington in the swap.
There have been indications over recent months that the Nats were inclined to move on from Roark, who projects to earn $9.8MM in his final trip through arbitration. It seems reasonable to anticipate that the D.C. organization has its eyes on another upgrade to its staff, with an obvious need for one or two additional rotation pieces.
Meanwhile, Roark will help to shore up a Cincinnati starting unit that the club has long targeted for improvement. The 32-year-old has thrown at least 180 frames in each of the past three seasons, even if the results haven’t always been there. Adding him to the staff likely won’t take the Reds out of the market for starters, though the club surely values the lack of a long-term commitment given the price for open-market pitching we’re seeing so far this winter.
Roark has, to be sure, turned in some eye-popping earned run averages over full seasons, but it’s tough to see him as much of an upside play. He has only once topped a ten percent swinging-strike rate, during his otherwise poor 2017 season, and has consistently graded out as a low-4 ERA type hurler in the eyes of ERA estimators.
That’s not to say that there isn’t value in Roark’s profile — there is. But it seems likelier that the Reds should anticipate a quality, durable rotation piece than the front-line starter Roark produced like in the 2014 and 2016 seasons, in which he spun 2.85 and 2.83 ERAs, respectively, in ~200-frame samples. The varying highs and lows over the years have seemingly correlated more with variations in opponents’ batting averages on balls in play than with significant differences in the underlying quality of Roark’s work on the mound.
If there’s an area of concern, it could be in the cozy confines of Great American Ball Park. Roark has never had particularly pressing issues with the long ball, but he has coughed up quite a few more in his lesser seasons (2015, 2017, 2018) than in his good ones. And after turning in approximately 48% groundball rates over the prior three years, Roark dropped to 40.7% in 2018 even as his flyball rate rose to 37.6% after sitting at or below 32% in that same three-year span.
As for the other Tanner R. in this swap, the 25-year-old Rainey is perhaps a more intriguing asset than his forgettable MLB debut effort would suggest. He scuffled badly in an eight-appearance showing last year, but did show a blazing fastball that touched 100 and averaged out at a healthy 98.3 mph.
Promising, Rainey also produced 52 innings of 2.60 ERA ball at the Triple-A level in 2018. Of course, that comes with a massive caveat: he also surrendered more than six free passes per nine innings, continuing his longstanding control difficulties. The Nats have taken some other notable risks on high-octane, command-challenged hurlers this winter. It seems likely that Rainey will open his time with the organization at Triple-A, unless he shows a major spark or a clear need arises during camp.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
FA/Trade Rumors: Kinsler, Jays, Yanks, Indians, Miller, Allen, Miley
The Tigers, Brewers, Athletics and Nationals are among the teams interested in free-agent second baseman Ian Kinsler, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Brewers have met with Kinsler at the Winter Meetings, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relays. Detroit’s inclusion on the list is particularly interesting in light of the fact that Kinsler thrived there from 2014-17, before the team traded him to the Angels last offseason. The 36-year-old ended up dividing the season between Anaheim and Boston, where he combined to hit a less-than-stellar .240/.301/.380 (87 wRC+) in 534 plate appearances. But to Kinsler’s credit, he swatted 14 home runs, stole 16 bases and, for the 12th consecutive season, posted at least 2.0 fWAR (2.3).
More chatter from around the game…
- Blue Jays right-handers Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez have been mentioned in trade rumors this offseason, though teams are finding it especially difficult to pry them loose. Per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, interested clubs have found the Jays’ asking price for both pitchers to be “uncomfortably high.” Because Stroman and Sanchez each have two years of control left, Nicholson-Smith suggests the Jays are holding out for a return similar to the one the Mariners received from the Yankees for James Paxton. That doesn’t seem realistic on Toronto’s part, however, as both Stroman and Sanchez struggled through injury-limited seasons in 2018.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman met with free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino‘s representative Tuesday, though no real offers have been exchanged to this point, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. Ottavino, 33, remains near the top of the Yankees’ free-agent wish list, Sherman notes. With free agents Zach Britton and David Robertson possibly on their way out of the Bronx, Ottavino – a New York City native – is a logical target for the club.
- There’s “no chance” free-agent reliever Andrew Miller will re-sign with the Indians, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com writes. On the other hand, there’s still a possibility of fellow FA reliever Cody Allen returning to Cleveland, according to Hoynes, though he adds that it would be surprising. Although both Miller and Allen fell off in 2018, it still appears the two highly accomplished late-game arms will rake in sizable paydays on the open market.
- Free-agent lefty Wade Miley‘s camp is “confident” he’ll reel in a multiyear contract, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. The 32-year-old Miley’s clearly in far better position than he was last offseason, when he had to settle for a minor league deal with Milwaukee. Miley went on to hold his own over 80 2/3 innings with the Brew Crew, pitching to a 2.57 ERA/3.59 FIP with a 52.8 percent groundball rate. At the same time, though, he recorded unappealing strikeout and walk numbers (5.58 K/9, 3.01 BB/9) and benefited from an ultra-low, likely unsustainable home run-to-fly ball rate of 5.2 percent.
Position Player Rumors: Brantley, Manny, ChiSox, Phils, NY, Ramos, Tulo, DJ
Continuing to cast a wide net in their search for upgrades, the White Sox “have checked in on” outfielder Michael Brantley, Jayson Stark of The Athletic writes. To this point, the 31-year-old Brantley has spent his entire career as a member of the AL Central rival Indians, though he figures to be too pricey for the Tribe this offseason. Based on his career to date, Brantley would be a substantial upgrade for a Chicago team that received horrid production from its cast of outfielders in 2018.
- Speaking of the White Sox, they’re among the teams that will meet with superstar Manny Machado, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. The Yankees and Phillies, two other unsurprising suitors, will also sit down with the 26-year-old infielder, Heyman adds. In total, Machado will visit four clubs in the coming days, Buster Olney of ESPN hears.
- The Brewers met yesterday with free agent backstop Wilson Ramos and his representatives, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports. Positive vibes seem to have emerged from the sit-down on both sides, which could perhaps spur some momentum toward a match. The Mets met with Ramos today, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post was among those to tweet, though the New York club is seemingly pushing on other fronts first.
- Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who surprisingly hit the open market Tuesday when the Blue Jays released him, may be a fit for the Athletics as a second baseman, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle observes. While Tulowitzki would like to remain at short, he “would be willing to change positions,” his agent, Paul Cohen, told Slusser on Tuesday. He’s also a Bay Area native who, according to Cohen, “would have a lot of interest” in returning there.
- Meantime, the shortstop-needy Tigers will consider Tulo, but signing him is “a low probability,” GM Al Avila said (via Jason Beck of MLB.com). Regardless, the Tigers will add a shortstop prior to next season, Avila declared (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com).
- The Nationals want an everyday second baseman, and free agent DJ LeMahieu tops their list, Bob Nightengale of USA Today relays. General manager Mike Rizzo revealed last week that the Nationals had contacted LeMahieu’s camp.
- Eight teams are interested in infielder Wilmer Flores, Heyman tweets. The 27-year-old Flores was an above-average offensive player with the Mets in each of the past three seasons, though he did most of his damage against lefties and dealt with injury issues. The Mets non-tendered Flores last month.
- Infielder Carlos Asuaje, whom the Rangers claimed off waivers from the Padres on Monday, is drawing interest from Japan, Heyman reports. It’s unclear, however, whether Texas would enable Asuaje to leave. The Rangers would probably need financial compensation for that to happen, Heyman posits.
Trade Rumors: Santana, Rockies, Reds, Puig, Ender, Rangers, Mets, Nats
Mariners first baseman Carlos Santana is drawing a fair amount of interest just over a week into his tenure with Seattle. The Rays, Indians, Rockies and Marlins have all reached out to the Mariners regarding the 32-year-old switch-hitter, per reports from Corey Brock of The Athletic and colleague Ken Rosenthal. The Indians and Marlins jump out as particularly interesting clubs on the four-team list. Santana played in Cleveland from 2010-17, but the team wasn’t willing to match the Phillies’ three-year, $60MM winning bid for the then-free agent last offseason. He now has $40MM left on that deal, which looks high for an Indians team trying to reduce payroll and get younger this winter. The Marlins certainly aren’t big spenders, meanwhile, and unlike the Indians, they don’t figure to contend during the two remaining years of Santana’s contract. In any case, it seems like a solid bet that the rebuilding, payroll-slashing Mariners will flip Santana, whom they acquired largely to help balance out money in a swap with Philly that was headlined by pricey shortstop Jean Segura.
- Along with Santana, the first base-needy Rockies have interest in the Indians’ Edwin Encarnacion, the White Sox‘s Jose Abreu and the Padres’ Wil Myers, Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets.
- The Dodgers and Reds have had “multiple” trade discussions involving outfielder Yasiel Puig and other players, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Puig’s “in play,” as are other Dodgers outfielders and some of their pitchers, per Rosenthal, who notes that they’d like to clear payroll in order to make room for other potential acquisitions. Interestingly, Rosenthal reports there’s a possibility of the Dodgers taking on Reds righty Homer Bailey‘s $28MM to essentially buy prospects from Cincinnati. Bailey would count $17.5MM against the competitive balance tax, making his money easier to deal with for LA than his salary. But there’s no trade close as of now, Rosenthal adds.
- More on the Reds, who have expressed interest in Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte, according to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. However, no trade is imminent, and it’s not clear what the Braves asked for in return, Sheldon writes. Inciarte would be an upgrade over ex-Red Billy Hamilton, whom they non-tendered last month. For the Braves, trading Inciarte would free up center field for Ronald Acuna Jr. Although, as a 28-year-old with up to four affordable seasons left on his contract, it would likely take a significant return for Atlanta to move Inciarte.
- The Rangers have engaged in trade discussions with both the Braves and Mets, TR Sullivan of MLB.com tweets. Unsurprisingly, pitching-starved Texas is seeking young and controllable arms, according to Sullivan, who notes that the Braves and Mets are looking for outfield help. However, New York’s seeking a right-handed outfielder, as Sullivan points out, and the Rangers’ most notable outfielders (Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo) are lefty-swingers.
- The Nationals are reportedly willing to trade righty Tanner Roark, whom general manager Mike Rizzo spoke about Tuesday. Rizzo told Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com and other reporters that the Nationals will only move Roark if they add another starter first. As of now, there’s nothing imminent, Zuckerman relays.
Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
Dec. 11: Corbin’s deal includes a $2.5MM signing bonus, per Heyman, and the following yearly salaries: $12.5MM in 2019, $19MM in 2020, $24MM in 2021, $23MM in 2022, $24MM in 2023 and $35MM in 2024.
Dec. 7: The Nationals have formally announced the signing of Corbin to a six-year contract.
“As the top free agent pitcher on the market this offseason, we targeted Patrick from the onset,” said general manager Mike Rizzo in a statement within the press release. “He was one of the top pitchers in the National League in 2018 and at 29 years old, we believe the best is yet to come. We are thrilled to bring him into our organization.”
Dec. 6: Just $10MM of salary is deferred, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’ll be due in a period from November of 2024 through January of 2026, so ultimately it’s only a small portion of the contract that won’t be kicked very far down the road.
Dec. 4: The Nationals have agreed to a deal with veteran lefty Patrick Corbin, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Corbin, a client of ISE Baseball, has landed a $140MM guarantee over a six-year term, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.
Deferrals will reduce the true, present-day value of the deal, but it’s still a huge sum. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the deferrals will be relatively minor, though details aren’t yet known. There will not be an opt-out opportunity in the deal, Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com tweets. That’s one area in which the Nats will avoid giving further value. (As MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has explained, those increasingly common clauses convey sometimes-significant value to players.) There’s no word yet as to whether Corbin will obtain any no-trade protection.
It turns out that Corbin will not only top the $126MM guarantee achieved last winter by Yu Darvish,but will do so handily. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Corbin would beat Darvish slightly, grading him as the top arm on the market. That seemed an aggressive prediction at the time, with many other outlets suggesting Corbin would earn less, but his market took off from the outset with several large-market clubs driving the bidding.
The Nats ultimately topped the Yankees (who entered as the perceived favorite) and division-rival Phillies to get a deal done. It long seemed a match with the New York club made the most sense, due not only to need and spending power but also to Corbin’s well-known roots in New York. It turns out the Yanks were unwilling to move past a $100MM offer on a five-year term, per Billy Witz of the New York Times (via Twitter). The Phillies also were stuck on five years, per Heyman (Twitter link).
Corbin’s decision to head to D.C. represents the first major move of this winter’s free agent market. He’ll join Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg to make up an imposing trio atop the Nats’ rotation — a unit that still could be supplemented with another addition. All three will be playing on nine-figure deals, representing a remarkable overall commitment to maintaining a top-level pitching staff.
This is the most significant acquisition yet for the Nats, but hardly the first. Previously, the Nationals lined up a new catching duo (Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki) and added a pair of relievers (Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough). Clearly, the organization is fully committed to a run at a return to glory in 2019 and beyond. The same can be said of much of the rest of the division, setting the stage for a fascinating remaining winter of dealmaking (to say nothing of the season to come).
Because he declined a qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks, Corbin’s signing will trigger some draft pick implications. The Nats will cough up a second-round pick and a fifth-rounder as well, as they were one of two teams that paid the competitive balance tax in 2018. The D-Backs will add a sandwich round pick (after the conclusion of the first round).
It’s a big price for the Nats to pay, but they obviously felt it was worth it to add a 29-year-old pitcher who took major new strides in 2018. Corbin threw exactly 200 frames for the Snakes, working to a 3.15 ERA and — more importantly — looking every bit an ace in doing so. He ended the season with 11.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and a 48.5% ground-ball rate, leaving ERA estimators gawking (2.47 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 2.91 SIERA). Notably, Corbin’s eye-popping 15.6% swinging-strike rate was orders of magnitude superior to his prior personal-best (11.0% in the season prior) and ranked as the second-highest of any qualified starting pitcher in the Majors. That occurred even as his average fastball dipped below 92 mph for the first time since he established himself as a full-time MLB starter.
Beyond questions of the sustainability of Corbin’s performance, many will wonder whether this contract brings too much health risk. The southpaw missed all of the 2014 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery, after all. Of course, the Nats have not shied away from TJ patients in the past, and Corbin has otherwise mostly been a rather durable hurler by today’s standards. He topped two hundred frames in 2013 and slung 189 2/3 in the 2017 campaign. Plus, the still-youthful hurler has a deeper potential advantage for longevity: he did not push his arm on the youth baseball circuit and did not even join the baseball team in high school until he was a junior.
The addition of Corbin at such a lofty rate will leave many to wonder whether the Nationals have moved on from Bryce Harper. The addition of Corbin’s $23.33MM annual salary will bring the Nationals’ luxury tax ledger to a bit more than $188MM for the 2019 season — about $17.9MM south of the luxury tax line. Obviously, adding Harper to the fold would tax the Nationals well north of the $206MM luxury line, but the Nationals demonstrated last year that they were comfortable crossing that threshold.
Beyond that, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has suggested that the Nats payroll could support both an extension for Anthony Rendon and a new contract for Harper. While it’s possible that the addition of Corbin could make it difficult to ultimately sign both Rendon and Harper long-term, Rizzo’s prior comments at the very least lend credence to the notion that both Corbin and Harper could coexist on an increasingly large payroll. Furthermore, as Janes tweets, the Nats’ front office knows that in order to retain Harper, ownership will need to make an “unprecedented commitment” and looks to be building up the roster while leaving a decision on Harper in the hands of the Lerner family.
Now that the dust has cleared, Corbin has ended up topping some notable recent price points. In addition to beating the Darvish deal, he’ll receive more total money than Johnny Cueto ($130MM), though that contract included an early opt-out chance, as well as Jordan Zimmermann ($110MM). The contract will still fall comfortably shy of Jon Lester‘s somewhat front-loaded, $155MM pact with the Cubs in December of 2014.
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