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Silver Linings: National League East

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In our Silver Linings series, we’re checking in on the most promising developments for non-contending teams during an otherwise disappointing 2018 season. Today, we’ll hop over to the National League East.

[Previous “Silver Linings” Posts: AL Central, NL Central]

While the Phillies are all but eliminated and sit just 1.5 games ahead of the Nats, they hung in the race longer and the 2018 season represented a big step forward nevertheless. Accordingly, we won’t go looking for silver linings in Philadelphia. But we will look at the three worst-performing clubs in the division, including one organization that was rebuilding from the start along with two of the most disappointing teams in baseball this year.

Nationals: Young Outfielders

With Bryce Harper mired in a curious slump for much of the season’s first half, and top-of-the-order dynamo Adam Eaton again on the shelf with ankle issues, the Nationals – a paragon of ignominy and disappointment over the past few seasons – turned for an offensive boost to an unlikely source: 19-year-old Juan Soto, who entered the season with just 301 professional plate appearances, none of which had come above the Low-A level.  Soto responded in a way few rookies – and virtually zero teenagers – have, slashing .297/.410/.518 after his May 15th call-up and carrying the club offensively through much of the summer.  Soto’s seemingly slump-proof output has been buttressed by an insanely high 16.1% BB rate and a preternatural ability, for a left-handed hitter, to handle same-side arms: his 145 wRC+ ranks third among all major league hitters with at least 100 PA in left-on-left matchups.  With Harper set to hit free agency after this season and sign perhaps the richest deal in major league history, Washington has insured itself beyond its wildest hopes: a true star, shining vibrantly before their eyes (for years to come, at a bargain rate of pay).

Though it was somewhat of a lost season for Washington’s most heralded prospect entering the 2018 campaign, 21-year-old Victor Robles, a consensus top-5 prospect among major outlets, offers another ray of hope for a franchise in desperate need of a spark as it transitions toward a future without many of its past stars.  Robles, who missed a good chunk of the season with a hyperextended elbow, slashed just .278/.356/.386 in limited action for Triple-A Syracuse, though he did steal 14 bases in just 40 games for the Chiefs.  The product of the Dominican Republic garners effusive praise for his work on defense, with MLB.com lauding his ’exceptional range and instincts’ and ’off-the-charts athleticism.’  Despite the tepid output at the plate in ’18, Robles still projects as a plus hitter with a chance for above-average power.

With those two cornerstones in place, a healthy Adam Eaton, baserunning whiz Trea Turner – whose 40 steals in 49 attempts have catapulted him to 4.2 fWAR, good for 2nd among all National League shortstops – and Anthony Rendon, perhaps the league’s most unheralded star, the revamped Nationals offense appears to yet again be a strength as the team prepares for the ’19 campaign.

Mets: Rotation Core

The Mets, who began the season in ecstasy and will end it in despair, had few bright spots on the offensive side of the ball this year.  Young lynchpins Amed Rosario and Michael Conforto have had, at best, uneven seasons (albeit with generally promising finishes), and high-profile offseason signings Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier offered little in the way of amends.  Brandon Nimmo’s newfound power stroke was a pleasant surprise, but for the most part, New York relied far too heavily on ineffective veterans and underperforming youngsters.

The rotation, however, was a different story.  Jacob deGrom, currently on pace for the third lowest ERA in franchise history at 1.78, is in the midst of an historic streak, having allowed 3 ER or fewer in 27 consecutive starts, the longest such streak in major league history. DeGrom, who turned 30 in June, is under control through the 2020 season and could be a prime trade chip for a franchise in desperate need of an overhaul. Of course, all indications are that the Mets don’t want to part with their best player. As for Noah Syndergaard, the man they call Thor has turned in another stellar season. Even if he failed to produce results quite as dominant as some might wish, he finished with 9.30 K/9 against 2.39 BB/9 and again limited homers at an elite rate.  Syndergaard’s age (26) and remaining years of team control (3) make him nearly as attractive a trade piece as DeGrom, though health is perhaps something of an ongoing question. Thor’s career FIP- (park- and league-adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching) of 67 ranks 17th all-time among hurlers and trails only the late Jose Fernandez and Clayton Kershaw among qualified starting pitchers.

Of course, those two hurlers were expected to perform. Even as Matt Harvey foundered and ended up departing, the Mets found a hugely valuable piece in a rather unexpected place. Former top prospect Zack Wheeler, whose early-career success was interrupted by a brutal run of injuries, enjoyed a renaissance as the summer progressed – turning the corner from poor results last year and early in 2018. Wheeler exhibited much-improved command, evidenced by a career-best 2.71 BB/9, which allowed him to compile 4.2 fWAR – easily eclipsing his career total over parts of three seasons with New York.  Even Steven Matz, who struggled for much of the season’s first half, has turned in six consecutive quality starts while lowering his ERA to 4.03, and, perhaps more importantly, has bucked the injury bug that’s bit him routinely throughout his 9-year professional career.

The prospective new regime in New York will have much to consider in their first few months on the job, not least of which will be the fate of their talented young hurlers.  Wheeler, 28, will enter Free Agency after the 2019 season and is the most likely candidate to be dealt, but a full-scale sell-off would go a long way toward replenishing a top-heavy farm and big league roster that shows more atrophy than promise.  DeGrom and Syndergaard would, without question, net franchise-altering returns, but are they moves that ownership (with a new front office regime expected) will be willing to make?  The winter of 2018 promises to be a fascinating one in the Big Apple.

Marlins: Superstar catcher

In a season with perhaps the lowest league-wide expectations since, well, the one following the last Marlins firesale, the new Miami regime had little to look forward to in 2018, and, as it turned out, even less to smile about.

The pitching staff was an unmitigated disaster, with 29 hurlers combining to post a 127 ERA- through the season’s first 152 games, easily the worst mark in MLB.  Signs of life were scarce, though offseason acquisition Caleb Smith did strike out 10.24 batters per nine across 16 starts, showcasing a live fastball and a slider that ranked among the league’s best.  And Trevor Richards, signed out of the independent Frontier League in July of 2016, rode a devastating changeup throughout the minors to the big league rotation in ’18, where poor command and a propensity for the gopher ball led to a 4.95 ERA mark through 23 starts, though he has struck out over a batter per inning as well.

Things weren’t much rosier on the offensive side, where just four regulars posted league-average or above batting lines. One of those players, rookie Brian Anderson, has ridden a .268/.351/.391 line and stellar UZR marks to a 3.0 fWAR total thus far in ’18, though his DRS totals are far less generous.  Top prospect Lewis Brinson has posted a putrid .201/.241/.350 line to this point, and minor leaguers Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz, and Magneuris Sierra – key prospect returns in offseason deals that sent away Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich – each struggled mightily at their respective minor league stops in ’18.

But J.T. Realmuto, the Marlins’ 4th-year catcher, has established himself as the premier backstop in the game. His .282/.347/.497 mark thus far is good for a 131 wRC+ in spacious Marlins Park, easily pacing MLB catchers offensively.  And Realmuto is a well-regarded defender and overall athlete. After back to back 3.5+ fWAR seasons leading up to the 2018 campaign, Realmuto has raised the bar even further this season, posting 4.9 fWAR in just 118 games behind the dish.  His 12.4 fWAR since the beginning of the ’16 season is tops among major league catchers, and with the Marlins still in the nascent stages of a wall-to-wall rebuild, he enters the offseason as one of the most coveted trade candidates in all of baseball.  While the Fish have only two more seasons of control to sell, they’ll come at fairly affordable rates. And contending teams in search of a big move will be hard pressed to acquire a similarly appealing alternative behind the dish.

Nationals, Fresno Grizzlies Announce Triple-A Affiliate Agreement

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The Nationals announced Tuesday that they’ve reached an agreement with the Fresno Grizzlies to serve as their new Triple-A affiliate. The newly agreed upon player development contract (PDC) is a two-year arrangement.

The Nats reportedly had interest in partnering with the Nashville Sounds, which would’ve been a much more favorable geographic and logistical arrangement for the organization. Instead, their top minor league affiliate will now be nearly 2800 miles from Nationals Park in Washington D.C.

Previously, the Nationals’ top affiliate had been located in Syracuse, though the Mets purchased the Chiefs last season in order to put an end to the sizable gap between their previous Triple-A affiliate, Las Vegas, and their home park.

The Nats were one of five teams — joined by the Astros, Rangers, Brewers and Athletics — vying for five affiliate spots as recently as this weekend. But with the Astros agreeing to a PDC with the Round Rock Express, the A’s teaming up with the Las Vegas 51s, the Brewers partnering with the San Antonio Missions and the Rangers just recently announcing a new PDC with the Nashville Sounds, the Nationals didn’t have much in the way of previously established alternatives.

Quick Hits: Martinez, Tigers, Reyes, Francisco

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Nationals manager Dave Martinez has drawn his fair share of scrutiny over the course of the season, but Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes that his job appears safe for the time being. General manager Mike Rizzo recently said he hasn’t considered a scenario where Martinez doesn’t return, and Janes reports that Nationals ownership deferred to Rizzo’s statement when she asked the Lerner family for comment on the matter.

More broadly, Janes speaks with more than a half dozen Nationals players (and has lengthy quotes from most) who vouch for Martinez. Shortstop Trea Turner and outfielder Adam Eaton are both adamant in their praise for Martinez, while veteran reliever Sean Doolittle describes the manner in which Martinez’s communication with the bullpen has continually improved over the course of the season. Janes points to the strong praise for Martinez from his players as proof that he has not lost the clubhouse, noting that former Nats manager Matt Williams was unable to maintain this level of support in a disappointing 2015 campaign.

Some more stray notes from around the league…

  • Tigers skipper Ron Gardenhire announced to reporters today that his entire coaching staff would return for the 2019 season (Twitter link via MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery). That’ll include Rick Anderson returning as the full-time pitching coach — a position he assumed after the Tigers abruptly dismissed Chris Bosio earlier this season in the wake of allegedly racist remarks toward an employee. Anderson, who was Gardenhire’s pitching coach in Minnesota, had previously been the team’s bullpen coach. Lloyd McClendon (hitting), Phil Clark (asst. hitting), former Tigers player Ramon Santiago (first base), Dave Clark (third base), Steve Liddle (bench), A.J. Sager and Joe Vavra (quality control) round out the Detroit coaching staff. Their returns aren’t entirely surprising, as owner Chris Ilitch recently expressed his pleasure with the current direction of his team’s rebuilding efforts.
  • Mets infielder Jose Reyes acknowledges that it has been a trying season, but says he’s still not sure he’ll hang up his spikes this winter, as Enrique Rojas of ESPN reports (Spanish language link). It sounds as if Reyes still has the desire to keep going, but also the appropriate perspective on his situation. “When you spend 15 years in the big leagues,” he said, ” it’s obvious that you start thinking about retirement, because we’re not eternal, but right now my physique is one hundred percent. It’s something I’ll think about with my family after the season.” There’s little question that the veteran switch-hitter would be a candidate for a minor-league pact, despite his ugly .196/.268/.332 slash in 235 plate appearances this year, though his prior suspension for alleged domestic abuse could well keep many organizations from showing interest and it’s not evident whether the Mets will ask him back.
  • For some, the decision to step away from the game isn’t a permanent one. That may be the case for former MLB reliever Frank Francisco. Per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, via Twitter, the righty is at least weighing a Dominican Winter League return. Though he recently turned 39 and hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2014, Francisco says he’s already working in the lower-nineties with his fastball. It remains to be seen whether the ten-year MLB veteran will even try to make it back to the bigs, but we’ve seen plenty of unlikely stories in the past.

Five Teams Set For Potential Triple-A Affiliate Changes

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The majority of clubs throughout Major League Baseball have already announced that they’ve renewed their player development contracts with their Triple-A affiliates, but there are still five clubs that don’t have a clear plan in place just yet. Notably, the Astros and the Fresno Grizzles announced yesterday that they will not be renewing their partnership. As MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart writes, that should pave the way for the ’Stros to land in Round Rock (where they previously had their Triple-A club for a decade). Astros president of business operations Reid Ryan said a return to Round Rock is “at the top of our list,” McTaggart notes, adding that the Ryan family owns the Round Rock Express.

That move, of course, would leave the Rangers searching for a new affiliate, though Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News wrote over the weekend that the Rangers could well end up in San Antonio, where a Triple-A franchise will be added as Colorado Springs loses its Triple-A designation (a move that’ll leave the Brewers, currently in Colorado Springs, looking for a new home as well). As Fraley explores, the facilities to which the Rangers could relocate in San Antonio are currently lacking, which could potentially prove detrimental in pursuing minor league free agents. However, sticking in Texas would come with greater marketing opportunities and a preexisting fan base from which to draw.

The Brewers, Nationals and Athletics are the three other clubs that are yet undecided on next year’s affiliations. The Nats will be seeking a new partner following the post-2017 announcement that the Mets had purchased the Syracuse Chiefs (securing a much-needed geographic upgrade over their current home in Las Vegas). The Athletics, in similar fashion, would reap significant geographic benefits by moving from their current home in Nashville to either Fresno or Las Vegas.

Betsy Helfand of the Las Vegas Journal-Review notes that the Nationals have expressed interest in moving to Nashville, while Bryant-Jon Anteola of the Fresno Bee suggests that the A’s would likely have their pick between Fresno and Las Vegas, as both would prefer to partner with the Athletics for geographic reasons, giving Oakland the advantage. That’ll present the A’s with the decision of whether to play in California or move to a newly constructed facility Vegas and seems likely to leave the Brewers with an even larger gap between their big league club and their top minor league affiliate, though they’ll be moving into improved facilities either way.

Pitching Notes: Hellickson, Buchholz, Skaggs, A’s

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Right-hander Jeremy Hellickson may have thrown his last pitch as a member of the Nationals. The pending free agent re-injured his right wrist during an at-bat Saturday, and he told reporters afterward that he won’t return this season (via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com). Saturday’s start was the first in a month for Hellickson, who had been on the shelf with a sprained wrist. Injuries notwithstanding, this will go down as a successful season for Hellickson after he had to settle for a minor league deal over the winter. The 31-year-old posted a 3.45 ERA/4.22 FIP with 6.41 K/9, 1.97 BB/9 and a 45.9 percent groundball rate in 91 1/3 innings.

  • Like Hellickson, righty Clay Buchholz has been as an excellent value pickup in 2018. Arizona signed the longtime Boston hurler to a minors deal in early May, and he went on to throw 98 1/3 frames of 2.01 ERA/3.46 FIP ball as a Diamondback, also adding 7.41 K/9, 2.01 BB/9 and a 42.6 percent grounder rate. Buchholz’s season is now done, as he incurred a flexor mass strain in his right elbow, but his D-backs tenure shouldn’t necessarily be over, Zach Buchanan of The Athletic writes (subscription required). Arizona has enough questions in its rotation that it should consider a reunion with the pending free agent, details Buchanan, who argues Buchholz’s elbow issue doesn’t look severe enough that it should scare off the team. Rather, as a result of the injury, the Diamondbacks may be able to re-sign the 34-year-old at a reduced price. Whether the D-backs are interested in bringing Buchholz back is unclear, but Buchanan notes that the player has “enjoyed” his run with the club.
  • Angels southpaw Tyler Skaggs, out since Aug. 11 with a left adductor strain, plans to return to the majors this season, per Maria Guardado of MLB.com. If Skaggs’ bullpen session on Sunday goes well, he could take the ball for the Angels during the upcoming week, Guardado relays. The 27-year-old’s adductor has forced him to the disabled list three times this season and limited him to 116 2/3 innings. That’s a career-high total for Skaggs, though, and with a 3.78 ERA/3.38 FIP, 9.49 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9, and a 45.6 percent grounder rate over that span, he has offered encouraging results.
  • Myriad injuries in their rotation could have stopped the Athletics from contending this season. Instead, thanks in part to scrapheap pickups Edwin Jackson, Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill, the A’s own one of the majors’ best records (90-59) and are now playoff shoo-ins. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com delves into how Oakland has succeeded, noting that its Matt Chapman-led defense leads the league in DRS (59) and has taken pressure off its pitchers. The staff – which has gone through 14 starters – has also gotten help from veteran catchers Jonathan Lucroy and Josh Phegley, pitching coach Scott Emerson and a stellar bullpen, as Crasnick explains in a piece that’s worth checking out.

NL East Notes: Zimmerman, Santana, deGrom, Camargo

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Ryan Zimmerman feels he has “two, three, four years left” in his career and he wants to spend them with the Nationals, the veteran first baseman tells MLB.com’s Bill Ladson as part of a lengthy Q&A piece, admitting that “It would be really weird to play anywhere else.”  It seemed as if Zimmerman’s time as an effective everyday player was winding down after injury-shortened seasons in 2014-16, though he rebounded with a healthy and productive 2017 season.  This year has been more of a mixed bag, as Zimmerman missed over two months with an oblique injury but has hit well (.267/.343/.506 in 286 PA) when he has been able to play.

Zimmerman, who turns 34 later this month, is owed $18MM next season, plus the Nats hold a $18MM club option on his services for 2020.  He acknowledged that he won’t be making such superstar money in the future, saying “At some point, if you want to be here, you have to make some sacrifices. I’m not going sit here and say I’m willing to play for the league minimum, but for me to play here would be the ultimate goal, to finish my career here.”

Here’s more from around the NL East…

  • Could the Phillies look to trade Carlos Santana this offseason?  “There has been some recent rumble” about the possibility, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury, though the idea seems rather speculative in nature.  Santana signed a three-year, $60MM deal to join the Phils just last winter, a signing that seemed surprising at the time since the club seemingly already had breakout rookie Rhys Hoskins established at first base.  Hoskins was shifted to left field instead, leading to a disastrous result from a defensive standpoint (-25 Defensive Runs Saved, -15.4 UZR/150).  Santana, meanwhile, has hit .233/.354/.429 with 23 homers over 616 PA — solid numbers, if less than the Phillies were expecting from the signing.  A Santana trade would allow Hoskins to return to first base, while allowing the Phillies to upgrade defensively at the very least in left field, and possibly make an even bigger all-around addition given how the team is thought to be preparing for a splashy offseason.  It’s worth noting that $25MM of Santana’s contract has already been paid out in salary and signing bonus, though even $35MM over the two remaining years could be a bit of a tough sell in trade talks, as Santana is limited to just first base (or DH) and he turns 34 in April.
  • Long before Jacob deGrom became a Cy Young contender, he was an unheralded ninth-round draft choice for the Mets in 2010 who wasn’t even used as a starting pitcher until near the end of his final year at Stetson University.  The Athletic’s Tim Britton (subscription required) has the story about how Mets scout Les Parker initially discovered deGrom, almost by accident as Parker happened to attend a scout day game at Stetson long enough to see deGrom enter as a reliever in the ninth inning.  Other Mets evaluators agreed with deGrom’s potential, and while his profile rose after becoming a starter later in Stetson’s season, the Giants were the only other team known to have significant interest in drafting deGrom.  The story is well worth a full read for a look at the scouting process and how you never know which prospect could emerge as a future star.
  • There has been quite a bit of speculation about the future of the Braves’ third base spot, be it top prospect Austin Riley winning the job or the possibility that Atlanta could look to acquire a big-ticket name for the hot corner.  Johan Camargo, however, has played well as the regular third baseman this season, and The Athletic’s David O’Brien (subscription required) wrote earlier this week that Camargo seems to be forcing himself into the Braves’ future plans.  “He’s done a lot to (impress team officials),” manager Brian Snitker said.  “As they go into the offseason and they’re looking, they might be able to take money they were going to spend (at third base) and spend it somewhere else.”  Camargo has hit .274/.354/.468 with 18 homers over 474 PA this season, while also posting a +6.5 UZR/150 and +5 Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner.  This adds up to an under-the-radar 3.0 fWAR season for the 24-year-old, who is under team control through the 2023 season.  The Braves could use Camargo in a super-utility role should Riley emerge as a viable big leaguer in Spring Training, or O’Brien even raises the possibility that Riley could become a trade chip if Camargo has done enough to win the everyday third base job going forward.  It would be a bold move to deal a top-100 prospect like Riley, though Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos is no stranger to moving prospects for established Major League talent.

NL Notes: Harper, D-Backs, Buchholz, Senzel, DeGrom

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As ever, there’s plenty of water-cooler chatter about the eventual destination of Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper, who — had you not heard? — is set to become a free agent at the end of the season. Particularly for fans of a Nats organization that is just weeks away from wrapping up a brutally disappointing campaign, it’s a subject of much attention. So eyebrows were raised recently at comments from Harper and, especially, club president of baseball ops/GM Mike Rizzo that could be interpreted as hinting at a reunion. In an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), Harper at least acknowledged a reunion is possible, saying that “it’s going to be an exciting future for the Nationals, and we’ll see if I’m in those plans.” Innocuous enough, to be sure, but perhaps the line could be interpreted as a wink toward contract talks. As for Rizzo, Chris Lingebach of 106.7 The Fan rounded things up. Those interested in parsing the words fully should click the link, but the key phrase at issue from Rizzo is his statement that he “won’t discuss [negotiations with Harper’s camp] until there’s something to announce.” Did the tight-lipped, hard-nosed GM tip his hand? It’s at most an arguable point.

From this vantage point, there’s enough here to make you think, but hardly a clear indication as to how Harper’s fascinating free agency will turn out. Here’s the latest from the National League:

  • The Diamondbacks had held a strong position in the postseason race for much of the season, but as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes, they’re now left hoping for a memorable late-season comeback to get in. “[B]reakdowns occurring in every facet of their game,” Piecoro writes, have spurred a ghastly 4-16 run that has reversed the team’s fortunes. Unfortunately, odds are that the Arizona club will head back to the drawing board at season’s end — while watching two significant players (A.J. Pollock and lefty Patrick Corbin) hit the open market. Still, it’s notable that the club has largely followed up on its successful 2017 campaign, as the thought in some quarters entering the year was that there wasn’t really enough talent to keep pace.
  • As is also covered in the above-linked piece, the D-Backs suffered an unwelcome blow in advance of tonight’s loss when they were forced to scratch righty Clay Buchholz. The veteran hurler has been an immense asset for Arizona, throwing 98 1/3 innings of 2.01 ERA ball since joining the club in mid-season as a minor-league signee. He’s now headed to Phoenix for testing, though the hope still seems to be that he’ll return this year. Regardless, it’s unfortunate news for the team but even more disappointing for the 34-year-old, who has dealt with plenty of health problems of late and will be reentering the open market at season’s end.
  • It has long been wondered what the Reds Baseball America points outwill do when they are ready to call up top prospect Nick Senzel, who’s blocked at his natural position of third base. We may be seeing the hints of an answer; as , Senzel is listed as an outfielder in the organization’s instructional league roster. That hardly guarantees anything, of course, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Senzel — who’s opportunity for a late-2018 callup was taken by a finger injury — come into camp in 2019 looking to crack the roster in the corner outfield. Just how it’ll all play out, though, remains to be seen.
  • Speaking of top prospects … among his many notes today, Jon Heyman of Fancred writes that the Mets took a targeted approach to discussions with other teams regarding ace righty Jacob deGrom. As Heyman puts it, the New York organization “focused” on the handful of clubs it deemed to have assets worth haggling over. When those teams weren’t willing to give up their best young assets, talks sputtered. Heyman cites “the Blue Jays, Braves, Padres, Yankees, and perhaps to a lesser extent the Brewers” as clubs that were engaged. But the ultra-premium prospects and young MLB players in those organizations simply weren’t on offer. It’s hard to argue with the Mets’ rationale; deGrom reached a new level this season, after all, and certainly shouldn’t be parted with by a major-market club for less than a compelling return.

Nationals Activate Jeremy Hellickson

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The Nationals announced today that they have activated righty Jeremy Hellickson from the disabled list. He had been sidelined since suffering a wrist sprain during his last outing on August 15th.

It’s too late now for Hellickson to help the Nats crawl back into contention. And he wouldn’t be eligible for the postseason if moved via trade. He will, however, add another arm to the mix while showcasing showcase for his own upcoming free agency.

Hellickson has neared the open market under quite different circumstances twice already. He received a qualifying offer from the Phillies after a strong 2016 campaign, but pitched poorly in 2017 after taking the hefty one-year deal. That set up a disappointing first foray into free agency, when he settled for a minors deal in D.C. in the middle of Spring Training.

Hellickson’s current contract came with only a $2MM base salary, though it did also include up to $4MM in incentives. Details on that clause have not yet been publicized, though it’s certainly possible that new thresholds could still be within reach.

To this point of the season, Hellickson has thrown 88 1/3 innings over 18 starts. That’s an average of less than five frames per outing, though that usage was by design rather than a reflection of poor pitching. In fact, Hellickson has thrived in this carefully controlled role, working to a 3.57 ERA with 6.5 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 along with a career-best 46.2% groundball rate.

In most ways, Hellickson looks to be much the same pitcher he always has been. By mostly eliminating his exposure to opposing lineups for a third time in a given outing, though, the Nats have lopped off his typically dreadful results in such situations. Perhaps that approach best explains the good year; of course, he’s also allowing only a .254 BABIP and is outperforming the expectations of ERA estimators (4.25 FIP, 4.20 xFIP, 4.27 SIERA).

What that’s worth on the open market remains to be seen. But Hellickson has surely thrown well enough to warrant a deal that comes with a 40-man spot. It should help that he’ll have a chance to tamp down any health questions by returning for the last few weeks of the season, even if that means working out of the bullpen.

Extension Candidate: Anthony Rendon

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The Nationals will watch their best-known, homegrown position player hit the open market this season. But the team still has another season of control over another top draft choice who made good on his promise, potentially creating an opening for long-term talks.

Sure, Bryce Harper is the bigger star and the more visible talent. But since Anthony Rendon turned into a regular in 2014, he has out-WAR’ed Harper. That’s particularly true over the past three seasons, as Rendon has churned out quality campaigns while Harper’s 2015 MVP effort has faded into memory.

The shadow hanging over Rendon seems to suit his personality. But it has seriously obscured his productivity. Since the start of ’14, he’s among the ten biggest position-player WAR producers in the game, yet he somehow hasn’t yet been named to an All-Star team. True, Rendon has twice finished among the top-ten in the MVP vote, but his profile remains much lower than the quality of his play would support — not even close to that of his long-time teammate.

It’s somewhat surprising that the careers of Harper and Rendon have never been seen as being intertwined in any meaningful way, despite the fact that they were chosen with lofty picks in successive drafts and reached the majors on a similar timetable. There are many reasons for that fact, but it’s all the more interesting to ponder given that there could be a very tangible way in which their outlook is connected. Specifically, if the Nats decide to let Harper walk, or are unable to coax him back, they’ll have vastly more future payroll capacity to work with in pursuing a new deal with Rendon.

To be sure, the Nats have more immediate needs than a new deal with Rendon, who’ll command a healthy raise on his $12.3MM salary through arbitration. But that’s all the more true in the case of Harper, who can be replaced from within by rising young talents Juan Soto and Victor Robles. In the case of Rendon, there’s no obvious heir at third base once he reaches free agency next fall. True, Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia loom as promising young players in the infield, but neither is quite as advanced or as promising as are the outfielders.

Plus, there’s likely more value to be achieved with a Rendon deal than one involving Harper, if for no other reason than that the latter will be on the open market at a rarely-seen point of his career. Convincing Rendon to stay would cost, to be sure, and he’s also a client of Scott Boras (as are many other current and former Nats, including the recently extended Stephen Strasburg). But it is at least possible that the low-key player would be more inclined to take a slight discount to stave off some risk and maintain stability. He won’t be selling as much of his youth; though he only just turned 28, Rendon won’t reach the market at an unusually young age. And he’d also be weighing terms with another year to go before free agency, creating a lever for at least something of a discount.

Risk, to be sure, would weigh in the equation for both sides if talks take place. Beyond the usual, injuries have been a particular concern for Rendon. A variety of lower-leg ailments, involving his ankles especially, have limited him over the years — both before and during his professional career. While he turned in mostly full 2016 and 2017 seasons, Rendon ended up missing a reasonably lengthy stretch this year after suffering a hairline toe fracture on a hit-by-pitch.

That consideration might weigh down the price, but surely wouldn’t get in the way of a deal entirely. As noted above, after all, Rendon has been supremely valuable despite his medical rap sheet.

It’s also true that Rendon isn’t hitting quite as much as he did in his outstanding 2017 season, when he walked more than he struck out and produced a career-high .232 isolated power mark. But that’s not to say that he isn’t doing quite a lot with the bat. Through 511 plate appearances in 2018, Rendon carries a .298/.358/.508 slash with 19 long balls.

This, interestingly, is the most aggressive version of Rendon we’ve seen. His strikeout-to-walk numbers (14.3% vs. 8.6%) have returned to something like his career norms after the uber-patient 2017 showing. He’s swinging (48.1%) and chasing out of the zone (29.9%) more than ever, though his contact rate remains in range of his career mean.

That’s not necessarily a problem, particularly since we know he has the pitch recognition in his pocket if needed. Rendon is also making more hard contact than ever before (38.1%) this season, so much so that Statcast thinks he has been quite unlucky (.403 xwOBA vs. .366 wOBA).

It’s worth bearing in mind, of course, that Rendon is also a high-quality all-around player. He’s not stealing as often this year as in the past but grades as a well-above-average overall baserunner. With the glove, it’s worth noting a sudden downturn in DRS (from +7 to -6). But he’s still a solidly above-average performer in the view of UZR and has long drawn sterling grades from those metrics and scouts.

So, what kind of a price tag might the Nats be looking at?

In truth, we haven’t seen the veteran third base market tested through extensions for quite some time. David Wright (eight years, $138MM) and Ryan Zimmerman (eight years, $126MM) signed those contracts before Rendon was even in the big leagues. Now, they feel a bit longer and a bit lighter on annual salary than we’re likely to see in the present market. The more recent action has been on players with much greater team control remaining, largely rendering them useless for our purposes.

Neither has the free-agent market seen many premium third baggers of late. Mike Moustakas fell flat on the open market with worries over his OBP and glovework. Pablo Sandoval got five years and $95MM, representing one of the closest comps for Rendon, though the Nats’ star is surely in a higher tier altogether. Before that, Adrian Beltre’s five-year, $80MM deal stands out as a laughable bargain for the club … and also a deal that’s far too stale to have any real relevance.

Perhaps, in approaching a Rendon price tag, we ought to consider two far more recent contracts, even if they truly aren’t on all fours with Rendon’s situation. Charlie Blackmon inked a deal in advance of his walk season that put a $21MM valuation on his free-agent seasons. While he was in an older age bracket, thus obviating the value of looking at his years, Blackmon was arguably a similarly situated player in terms of quality. Of course, there’s also an argument to be made that Rendon isn’t that far shy of the ability level of Jose Altuve, who was two years from the open market when he signed a deal with an AAV of over $30MM for his age-30 through age-34 seasons. Then again, he won’t be coming off of a superlative season capped by a World Series win and MVP award.

For Rendon, who’d stand to reach free agency in advance of his age-30 season without a new deal, it’s certainly arguable that a valuation between those two makes sense. Contract length is another variable that can’t be considered in isolation; likewise, options and opt-outs are a factor. Generally, the trend is toward slightly shorter deals that leave players with chances to cut things off a few years into the deal. In this case, perhaps, Rendon would be looking at adding five or six new seasons on top of his existing 2019 arbitration contract. With an AAV range in the neighborhood of $22MM to $26MM, that puts a rough guess in the range of a $130MM new-money commitment.

It’s certainly possible that’d be a bit too rich for the Nats’ liking, especially given the injury history (the details of which they know better than other teams) and the organization’s other needs. Then again, it may not be enough for Rendon to give up the chance of testing the open market. As always, these matters come down to negotiations between parties with real-world interests that can’t simply be reduced to baseball valuations. From the perspective of the baseball market, however, the above number — with a healthy error bar on either side — seems to be a generally fair target.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nationals Activate Sean Doolittle

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The Nationals announced today that they have activated closer Sean Doolittle. He has been sidelined since mid-July with a stress reaction in his left foot.

While the initial expectation was that Doolittle would only miss a brief stretch, he ended up on the shelf for a key portion of the season in which the club failed to get back into the picture in the NL East. Now, despite some less-than-stirring recent performances from the division-leading Braves and Phillies, the Nats are buried at three games under .500 and 8.5 games off of the divisional pace.

Clearly, there’s no longer any reasonable hope that Doolittle will help his team climb back into contention. Particularly in these circumstances, and given his long-running challenges with injuries, it stands to reason that he’ll be handled carefully upon his return.

Before going on the DL, Doolittle had been one of the game’s most dominant relievers. In 37 1/3 innings, he allowed just six earned runs on a paltry 17 hits and three walks — good for an absurd 0.536 WHIP — while racking up 49 strikeouts.

Fortunately for the Nats, there are still two more seasons of control left to work with. The extension that Doolittle signed with the A’s, who dealt him to D.C. last summer, includes consecutive club options of just $6MM and $6.5MM ($500K buyout apiece) for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

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