Quick Hits: Rays, Nationals, Guerrero
The Rays have struggled lately, but they’ve done surprisingly well overall this season despite numerous pitching injuries. One key reason is that they’ve pulled starting pitchers early in games, as Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan explains. The Rays have frequently removed starters after just five or six innings, even when they’ve been very effective, because batters tend to do much better against a pitcher the third time through the order. Rays pitcher Nate Karns says the team explained the strategy to its pitchers before the season. “They didn’t hand us a big spreadsheet or anything,” he says. “But they gave us what we needed to know. That’s something they’ve run a lot of numbers on, crunched a lot of data, and for me to have no numbers myself to refute it, I just trust them and believe what they’re doing is right. And it’s working.” The Rays’ rotation ERA of 3.29 ranks second in the American League despite injuries to a number of key pitchers. Here’s more from around the big leagues.
- Injuries to regulars like Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Denard Span raise questions about whether the Nationals should acquire another hitter at the trade deadline, Nats Insider’s Mark Zuckerman writes. As Zuckerman notes, the Nationals are currently three games up in the NL East, and they’ve been one of the NL’s better offensive teams overall. (A season like the one Bryce Harper is having makes a big difference in that regard.) The Nationals have also gotten nice contributions from players who didn’t project to be starters, including Danny Espinosa, Michael Taylor and Clint Robinson. But the Nationals simply have too many injured players for whom to cover. Zuckerman argues that a versatile regular like Ben Zobrist would be tremendously helpful in patching the Nats’ lineup.
- Alex Guerrero‘s contract with the Dodgers contains a clause that allows him to opt out after 2015 if he’s traded, but Guerrero might consider waiving that clause if he were paid extra, Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles writes. Guerrero (who can’t be optioned to the minors without his permission, either) has played sparingly lately, with Justin Turner handling third most of the time. Guerrero is currently owed about $12MM through 2017. He’s just 28 and has hit 10 homers in 159 plate appearances this year (albeit with a .277 OBP), so he could be a more appealing addition to the trade market if he’s willing to dispense with his opt-out clause.
West Notes: A’s, Kazmir, Machi, Ibanez
The Athletics are in a “holding pattern” on trade talks as they continue to see how things progress in the coming weeks, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (Twitter links). Nevertheless, likely buyers appear to be taking a close look at Oakland’s roster, as Rosenthal counts the Blue Jays, Astros, Royals, Tigers, Nationals, and Pirates among the clubs that sent scouts to last night’s game.
- Scott Kazmir threw for the A’s last night, of course, and left after just three innings of work with forearm tightness. Kazmir insisted after the game that it was not a major source of concern, and indeed Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle notes on Twitter that he was able to play catch today without apparent issue.
- Giants reliever Jean Machi appears at risk of becoming a roster casualty when the club welcomes back Jeremy Affeldt and/or Tim Lincecum, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle notes on Twitter. The 33-year-old has produced outstanding results in each of the last two seasons, putting up 119 1/3 innings of 2.49 ERA pitching. But it’s been a different story in 2015, as Machi has suffered a notable decline in his strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.8 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9, presently) and owns a 5.29 ERA in 32 1/3 frames.
- The Rangers got a bargain on recent international signee Andy Ibanez, writes Ben Badler of Baseball America. Texas landed the 22-year-old infielder for just $1.6MM, but Badler pegs him as roughly equivalent in value to a supplemental first-round or second-round draft pick.
NL East Notes: Mets, Papelbon, Pettibone, Span
Mets GM Sandy Alderson indicated today that the trade landscape for bats is starting to take shape, as Mike Puma of the New York Post reports on Twitter. “The target market is just beginning to reveal itself,” said Alderson. New York’s most obvious needs seem to be on the left side of the infield, where the shortstop position continues to be a source of consternation and third bagger David Wright remains an uncertainty.
Here’s more from the NL East:
- Other teams believed the Phillies were nearing a deal involving closer Jonathan Papelbon at some point in June before putting talks on hold, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports (links to Twitter). Per Stark, there is a sense that the decision to pull back came from above GM Ruben Amaro Jr., with Philadelphia choosing to hold off when the Andy MacPhail hiring neared completion. Clubs that were in the conversation included the Blue Jays, Cubs, Rangers, and one of the Los Angeles franchises, according to the report. MLBTR recently posed the question on Instagram whether Papelbon or Francisco Rodriguez is the better closer target. Check it out to join the discussion.
- Phillies righty Jonathan Pettibone is set for another shoulder surgery, the club announced. The 24-year-old once seemed primed to function as a quality rotation piece, but has not pitched competitively since early last season.
- The Nationals are waiting to decide on a DL stint for center fielder Denard Span until he sees a back specialist tomorrow, Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com tweets. Span has been excellent when healthy, but continues to deal with a series of nagging injuries. The progress of this particular malady could play a significant role not only in his future free agent case, but also Washington’s motivation to land a player like Ben Zobrist to provide the team with options down the stretch. While Michael Taylor and Matt den Dekker are capable of playing center, the club is also dealing with the absence of Jayson Werth and several other injury and performance issues that could make an addition desirable.
Red Sox Acquire Ramses Rosario From Nationals
The Nationals announced today that they’ve traded minor league right-hander Ramses Rosario to the Red Sox in exchange for the No. 66 international bonus slot. That slot is valued at $327,700, per Baseball America.
Rosario, 19, was signed by the Nats in the 2012-13 international signing period and has worked exclusively in the Dominican Summer League from 2013-15. He’s posted a combined 4.11 ERA in 72 1/3 innings across 34 games (31 relief appearances) in that time, averaging 6.2 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9. Rosario did not rank among Washington’s top prospects per Baseball America, MLB.com or Fangraphs.
The Nationals’ $1,985,400 international bonus pool (also per BA) was the second-smallest in the Majors this year. The additional $328K will allow boost that figure to $2.31MM, which is more than enough to give them some breathing room to reach additional agreements beyond Dominican outfielder Juan Soto, who reportedly has a $1.5MM bonus agreed upon with the team.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, are restricted from signing an international amateur for more than $300K after absolutely shattering last year’s budget to sign Cuban phenom Yoan Moncada, so it makes sense to see them trading their slots.
Nationals Place Stephen Strasburg On 15-Day DL
The Nationals have placed Stephen Strasburg on the 15-day disabled list with a left oblique strain, and recalled righty Taylor Jordan from Triple-A Syracuse to take his place, the club announced today. Strasburg left his start yesterday after just 56 pitches due to discomfort in his left side.
The transaction continues what’s been a frustrating season for Strasburg, who’s already made one trip to the DL to recover from a strained left trapezius muscle and has also dealt with several other nagging injuries. Strasburg has only pitched 61 innings in 2015 and his health issues have surely been a factor in his uncharacteristically high 5.16 ERA. His peripheral numbers (9.3 K/9, 2.7 BB/9) and ERA indicators (3.55 FIP, 3.38 xFIP, 3.44 SIERA) suggest that Strasburg had pitched somewhat better than his ERA, which could also be explained by a .355 BABIP and a low 64.1% strand rate. Since returning from his initial DL stint, Strasburg had looked much better, allowing just two runs and posting 18 strikeouts over 15 2/3 innings.
If Strasburg is able to make a quick recovery, there’s a chance he might technically not need to be replaced on the pitching staff. Nats manager Matt Williams hinted that the team could simply employ a four-man rotation until the All-Star break since Washington has an off-day on Thursday. If Strasburg is still on the DL once the second half resumes, Tanner Roark (who has already made six starts this year) will likely take his spot in the rotation.
It’s doubtful that Strasburg’s injury would lead to an external acquisition even if he did miss significant time. Nationals starters have combined for a league-best 10.6 fWAR, with Roark and Joe Ross providing valuable depth behind Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister and Strasburg.
NL International Signings: Rockies, Mets, Braves, Nats, Reds
Here are the day’s notable international signings from the National League. Rankings courtesy of Ben Badler of Baseball America, Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs, and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez.
- The Rockies have a $2MM deal in place with outfielder Daniel Montano after he signed today, per a tweet from MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. Montano rated 12th on the MLB.com board, based upon his good instincts in center, smooth left-handed stroke, and decent power potential. There are some questions, including inconsistent performances at times, which led BA to slot him 16th and Fangraphs to rank him just outside the top twenty.
Earlier Updates
- The Mets have landed two top international shortstops, according to Badler. Venezuelan product Andres Gimenez, the second overall prospect on Badler’s list, is headed to New York. The bonus will be for $1.2MM, per Sanchez (via Twitter), for a player that Badler called the second-best available prospect based upon his excellent batting skills from the left side of the plate, decent power potential, and strong overall defensive profile. And Dominican shortstop Gregory Guerrero will also join the club after agreeing to a $1.5MM bonus, per Badler. Guerrero, cousin of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and nephew of Vlad Sr., rated 9th among July 2 prospects in McDaniel’s estimation. Per McDaniel, the Mets signee has a more advanced hit than power tool, but could increase his pop over time. He is ultimately expected to move off of short to the hot corner. Having entered the day with $2,531,300 in spending capacity, these two deals put New York at just over 6.6% above their pool. That would line the team up to face a one-year ban on signings of over $500K, making a deal for another bonus slot appear likely.
- The Braves have a deal in place with shortstop Derian Cruz for $2MM, Badler reports. McDaniel was high on Cruz, rating him the 8th-best player available, citing his outstanding speed, good hitting tools, and potential ability to stay at the shortstop position or otherwise play up the middle defensively. Atlanta also agreed to a $1.4MM bonus with outfielder Christian Pache, per Sanchez (via Twitter), the tenth-rated player on MLB.com’s top-thirty list. While these signings will put pressure on the team’s total spending allotment of $2,458,400, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets that the club will attempt to trade for about $1MM in extra capacity to steer clear of future signing restrictions.
- Dominican outfielder Juan Soto will join the Nationals after agreeing to a $1.5MM deal, Sanchez tweets. That’s the team’s largest-ever bonus for a young international signing, James Wagner of the Washington Post notes on Twitter. Soto’s appeal lies more in his feel and approach at the plate than in pure bat speed, Baseball America writes in rating him 13th in the class. Though he does not offer much on defense and looks to be a corner outfielder in the future, Soto is said to have the potential to be an above-average offensive producer both in terms of pure hitting and power.
- The Reds have agreed to a $1MM bonus with outfielder Christian Olivo, according to Sanchez (via Twitter). MLB.com was highest on Olivo, rating him 23rd on the international market and noting that he has a fairly high power ceiling that he has yet to fully tap into. The left-handed hitter has drawn mixed reviews in the baserunning and defensive departments.
Draft Signings: Lambert, Eshelman, Ferrell, Denton
Let’s wrap up some notable recent draft signings to close out the day. Slot values, as always, are courtesy of Baseball America.
- We already noted that Rockies second-rounder Peter Lambert had signed, and now Jim Callis of MLB.com tweets that he’ll earn $1,495,000 to forego his commitment to UCLA. That’s just shy of a full $100K above the slot value for the 44th choice. A projectable right-hander, Lambert was rated a top-fifty draft-eligible player by both Baseball America and MLB.com.
- The Astros have agreed to terms with second-round choice and 46th overall pick Thomas Eshelman, Mark Berman of FOX 26 Houston reports on Twitter. The Cal State-Fullerton righty says he’ll formally sign next week. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs had Eshelman as the 54th player on his pre-draft board, while others were somewhat less optimistic. Baseball America rated him 126th, explaining that Eshelman has exceptional command but lacks outstanding pure stuff.
- The Astros have also announced the signing of TCU righty Riley Ferrell, as Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle first reported on Twitter. He’ll get a $1MM bonus from the club, per Jim Callis of MLB.com (via Twitter). MLB.com liked him as the 45th-best draft prospect, noting that the TCU closer has a big fastball-slider combination that could make him a big league contributor from the pen in short order.
- The Cardinals are in agreement with second-round pick Bryce Denton, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Denton had been committed to Vanderbilt, but is just a physical away from becoming a professional. ESPN.com’s Keith Law rated Denton 68th coming into the draft, noting that he has enhanced his outlook with improved strength and conditioning. Law says that the Tennessee high schooler is likely to play in the corner outfield as a pro, and could ultimately possess both a high-contact and powerful bat if he develops.
- Rays third-round second baseman Brandon Lowe has agreed to terms on an unspecified bonus, Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune reports on Twitter. Lowe was taken 87th overall, which came with a $676,900 slot value. The University of Maryland product ranked as high as 92nd in pre-draft rankings, with that tab coming from Law, who profiles him as a very good hitter with below-average power and solid-but-not-spectacular overall defensive ability.
- The Nationals have agreed to a $500K bonus with 13th-round pick Max Schrock, Callis tweets, That’s the highest bonus yet given to a post-tenth-round selection, Callis adds. As I noted recently, Washington had freed a significant amount of cash with its previously reported signings, and $400K of that will go to add the South Carolina second baseman, who Baseball America rated 282nd overall based on his strong bat.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Desmond, Toussaint, D-Backs, Samardzija, Cotts
In his latest notes column for FOX Sports, Ken Rosenthal begins with an interesting note on the Nationals. Despite a substantial payroll and a heavy offseason investment in Max Scherzer, Nats ownership is reluctant to add payroll during the season. Rosenthal notes that, in hindsight, we saw an indication of this last July when Cleveland paid all of the $3.3MM remaining on Asdrubal Cabrera‘s salary after the Nats acquired him. (Of course, the Nats were also willing to take on all of Matt Thornton‘s salary via waiver claim.)
Because of this, Rosenthal wonders if the Nats will consider trading Ian Desmond this summer to clear room for a different acquisition. Given Desmond’s struggles, the team could be better off with Danny Espinosa, Yunel Escobar and Anthony Rendon seeing regular time in the infield. Earlier in the week, I speculated on a possible Desmond trade after it was reported that the Nats were interesred in the D-Backs’ middle infielders, but Rosenthal notes that it could also allow them more flexibility to pursue Aroldis Chapman, Ben Zobrist or even a reunion with Tyler Clippard. Of course, Desmond’s offensive and defensive woes diminish his trade value, as well.
A few more highlights from Rosenthal’s column…
- Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart tells Rosenthal that he usually doesn’t pay attention to media criticism, but he’s aware of the near-universal criticism of the D-Backs for their trade of Touki Toussaint (in which the team essentially sold its 2014 first-round pick to Atlanta). Rosenthal quotes Stewart: “The truth is we did not know what Touki’s value would be if we shopped him. There is a lot of speculation on that. People are assuming it would have been better, but we don’t know. There was an opportunity to make a deal that gave us more flexibility today as well as next year. We took that opportunity. It’s tough to say we could have gotten more. He was drafted at No. 16, given ($2.7) million. In my opinion, that’s his value.” Stewart continues to say that Toussaint has not thrown 96 mph with the D-Backs, despite some scouting reports and that there’s “some inflation of what people think Touki is.” Stewart adds that the D-Backs think Toussaint will be a Major League pitcher but not for another five to six years.
- A brief interjection from me to offer my take on those comments: It’s odd to hear a GM openly devalue a player in this fashion, even after trading him away. Beyond that, however, it’s puzzling to hear Stewart equate Toussaint’s value with the clearly arbitrary number assigned to last year’s draft slot value. Having shown a willingness to spend $16MM+ on a pitching prospect (Yoan Lopez) this offseason, Stewart is undoubtedly cognizant of the fact that Toussaint would have fetched far, far more than $2.7MM in a theoretical free agent setting. Additionally, if they truly do feel that Toussaint will pitch in the Major Leagues, that makes the trade all the more puzzling to me, as my best explanation to this point had been that they simply didn’t believe in his future all that strongly.
- Back to Rosenthal’s piece, which has several more quotes from Stewart, including the GM’s own admission of surprise to his team’s current standing in the NL West. The D-Backs were built with an eye on the longer-term picture than 2015, says Stewart, and they’ll need to assess how to respond at the deadline. To this point, the D-Backs have received inquiries on their starting pitching, but not on their middle infield. Stewart flatly says “…we’re not moving [Nick] Ahmed,” and calls a trade of Chris Owings “very unlikely.” Interestingly, that does seem to indicate that the new GM values Ahmed over Owings.
- The Astros remain interested in Jeff Samardzija, and as Rosenthal notes, a move away from what has been a brutal White Sox defense would likely help Samardzija quite a bit. Samardzija’s .338 BABIP has helped contribute to a significant discrepancy between his 4.53 ERA and 3.67 FIP. Of course, Chicago’s porous defense doesn’t necessarily explain Samardzija’s diminished strikeout rate and struggles to strand runners in 2015. The Astros, Rosenthal says, are eyeing Samardzija and other pitchers, but the White Sox are not yet ready to sell.
- The Brewers aren’t receiving very strong interest in Francisco Rodriguez, likely in part due to his backloaded contract, Rosenthal hears. K-Rod is still owed $1.95MM in 2015, plus $9.5MM in 2016 between his salary and the buyout on a $6MM club option for the 2017 season. Lefty Neal Cotts, however, figures to be in demand and may even be of interest to his former club, the Rangers, Rosenthal writes. Cotts’s 4.30 ERA isn’t anything to write home about, but he’s held lefties to a .546 OPS.
- The Cardinals might not be as urgent to add a starter as many had previously expected. The club feels that Michael Wacha can top 200 innings, and Carlos Martinez can deliver about 170. A bigger need might be a left-handed-hitting complement for Mark Reynolds at first base, and Rosenthal suggests Adam LaRoche as a speculative fit to improve the team on both sides of the ball.
Draft Signings: Lambert, Hill, Stevenson
Here are the day’s notable draft signings …
- The Rockies appear to have a deal in place with second-round pick Peter Lambert, who tweeted that he is en route to join the club’s Rookie affiliate. While a bonus remains unreported, Lambert was taken 44th overall, which came with a $1,395,200 slot allocation. The high school righty rated 48th on the board of Baseball America, which credited him with a nice three-pitch mix. Colorado also added fourth-rounder David Hill for a $550K bonus (a slight bump over the slot value of $533K), per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter). The University of San Diego right-hander actually placed even higher than Lambert on BA’s list (44th), based upon his increasing velocity and promising slurve and change (though BA also noted that Hill will need to improve his control and consistency).
- The Nationals have agreed to terms with their first overall pick, second-rounder Andrew Stevenson, on a below-slot $750K bonus, James Wager of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. Stevenson, an outfielder out of LSU, was taken with the 58th overall choice ($1,058,100 slot value), which was awarded to the Nats for failing to ink last year’s second-rounder. MLB.com was higher on Stevenson than other outlets, ranking him the 79th-best player available and calling him “the best defensive center fielder in college baseball.” Per that review, Stevenson has a useful, if unexciting, offensive profile. Overall, the Nats have racked up quite a bit of savings on those players they have inked to date: $786,800 by my count. Only third-rounder Rhett Wiseman (who is playing for Vanderbilt in the College World Series as we speak) and eighth-round choice Koda Glover (a senior from Oklahoma State) have yet to sign from the first ten rounds, and it’s not immediately clear how (if at all) the team will utilize its extra bonus availability.
NL East Notes: Freeman, Marlins, Hamels, Zobrist, Mets, Franco
A bone bruise in his right wrist has landed Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman on the DL, writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. The team is hopeful that Freeman won’t miss too much time, but Bowman adds that it would be “optimistic” to expect that he will return on July 3 when he is first eligible to be activated.
A few more items pertaining to the NL East…
- Though they’re 11 games under .500, the Marlins are not yet thinking of selling, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). The team could revisit that thinking if things don’t improve after facing the Cardinals, Dodgers and Giants on the upcoming homestand, he says. Still, the team could soon have a surplus of starting pitching on its hands, once Jose Fernandez, Jarred Cosart and Henderson Alvarez are all activated from the disabled list. Mat Latos could end up being the odd man out, Rosenthal speculates, adding that veteran righty Dan Haren isn’t likely to be moved.
- While reports of scouts watching a certain team/player can sometimes be overblown, there are a pair of NL East clubs scouting possible trade pieces tonight. The Nationals have a high-level scout watching the Athletics tonight, tweets Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, noting that Washington has been linked to Ben Zobrist recently. Additionally, Jared Sandler of the Rangers Radio Network tweets that the Phillies have a scout in attendance for Chi Chi Gonzalez‘s start tonight. Gonzalez’s name has been floated in rumors connecting the Rangers to Cole Hamels.
- Andy Martino of the New York Daily News joined SNY’s Mostly Mets podcast to discuss possible upgrades for the Mets‘ offense (audio link). “They’re moving cautiously, because my understanding is that they have payroll flexibility, but essentially, Alderson has one big bullet to fire that way,” Martino said. Alderson may have the ability to either add a few lower-cost pieces or pursue one more expensive player, but Martino points to Alderson’s history of not parting with significant prospect packages to outbid other clubs in speculating that the ultimate result of the Mets’ trade efforts will be adding a few lower-profile pieces.
- The Mets announced today that Travis d’Arnaud has hit the DL with a sprain in his left elbow (Twitter link). At this time, there’s no immediate timetable for d’Arnaud’s return, though it’s at least positive that the injury is in his non-throwing elbow.
- In the wake of Maikel Franco‘s scorching hot streak and his third homer in two games at Yankee Stadium, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com tweets that the Phillies beat the Yankees‘ offer to Franco by a mere $5,000 back in 2010. Philadelphia offered Franco a $100K signing bonus, whereas the Yankees’ top offer was $95K. That’s probably another $5-10K that the Yankees wish they’d spent, though there’s little certainty when dealing with players of that age. (Franco was 17 at the time he signed with the Phils.)