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Yordan Alvarez

Better Building Block: Pete Alonso Or Yordan Alvarez?

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With just over a month remaining in the regular season, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Astros designated hitter/outfielder Yordan Alvarez look like the clear-cut front-runners for Rookie of the Year honors in their respective leagues. Alonso has been brilliant all season, and his excellence this summer has helped lead the Mets out of despair and into National League wild-card contention. Alvarez, meanwhile, has given the already loaded Astros yet another tremendous hitter in a lineup chock-full of them since the club promoted him to the majors June 9. But which of the two would you rather have for the long haul?

At least in terms of home runs, the 24-year-old Alonso has enjoyed one of the greatest first seasons in recent history. The Mets have been around since 1962, but Alonso already holds the franchise’s single-season record for most homers in a year. Alonso swatted his 42nd of the year Tuesday, thus helping him to an overall line of .265/.367/.596 across 556 plate appearances. The right-handed swinger has shown no vulnerability while facing either same-sided or lefty hurlers, evidenced by a 147 wRC+ against the former and a 149 mark versus the latter. Alonso’s 148 wRC+ ranks eighth among qualified hitters, while his 4.2 fWAR ties him for 23rd with Cubs third baseman and former NL MVP Kris Bryant. Plus, Alonso’s .382 expected weighted on-base average falls in the league’s 92nd percentile, per Statcast, and doesn’t sit too far behind his real wOBA of .398.

Statcast has looked even more favorably on the 22-year-old Alvarez’s production, giving him an eyebrow-raising .421 xwOBA that ranks fifth in the majors among those with 100 or more trips to the plate. Only offensive luminaries Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Nelson Cruz and Christian Yelich have outdone Alvarez in that category. Trout and Yellich have already won MVPs, while Bellinger could join them in the next couple months. Meantime, Alvarez’s actual wOBA (.456) outdoes every other batter’s by at least 10 points. His line of .329/.420/.703 with 21 homers in just 257 PA amounts to a 190 wRC+, which ranks first out of those with 200-plus trips to the plate, while he has already racked up 2.9 fWAR.

The lefty-hitting Alvarez, like Alonso, has brutalized pitchers of either handedness (199 wRC+ against righties, 170 wRC+ versus southpaws). Although Alvarez’s .367 batting average on balls in play seems unlikely to hold as he moves forward, it’s clear the stacked Astros have yet another world-class offensive building block on their hands.

MLB.com placed Alvarez 23rd among the game’s prospects at the time of his promotion, while Alonso was 51st shortly before the Mets elected to place him on their season-opening roster. It’s evident now they deserved better than even those high rankings. Alvarez seems likely to go down as one of the top heist pickups in recent memory, as the Astros acquired him from the Dodgers for reliever Josh Fields back in August 2016, while Alonso has been a steal of a draft pick for New York – which landed him in the second round in 2016. These two can already count themselves among baseball’s fiercest sluggers just a few months into their respective careers, and they’re likely on their way to ROY honors as a result. Who’s the better building block, though?

(Poll link for app users)

West Notes: Yordan, Angels, Rangers, Padres

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Rookie sensation Yordan Alvarez garnered some first base experience during his time in the minors, but the Astros have no intention of trying him there in the majors this year, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The team wasn’t “comfortable” with Alvarez’s performance at first in the minors, according to manager A.J. Hinch. Thanks in part to that, the Astros will stick with the hot-hitting Yuli Gurriel as their starter, with Rome noting Aledmys Diaz will serve as the backup when he comes off the injured list. Alvarez will continue as a designated hitter/left fielder, a role which has suited him well during what has been a brilliant introduction to the majors. Through his first 69 plate appearances, the 22-year-old has slashed .317/.406/.733 (196 wRC+) with seven home runs.

More from the majors’ West divisions…

  • The Angels received an encouraging second opinion this week on infielder Zack Cozart’s problematic left shoulder, manager Brad Ausmus revealed (via Dave Sessions of MLB.com). The doctors “seem to be narrowing it down to a couple things it could be, and I guess the MRI is to further narrow that down,” Ausmus said. Cozart has been down since May 28 with inflammation in his shoulder, a joint that also cost him a significant chunk of 2018. He underwent season-ending surgery on a torn labrum last season, ending his first year with the Angels after just 58 games. Cozart will visit Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who performed his surgery a year ago, for more imaging tests Friday, Sessions relays.
  • The Rangers were within a week of summoning reliever Matt Bush back to the majors before he was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. Bush had been rehabbing a prior UCL injury all season, but this week’s news means he’ll wind up missing the entire campaign and surely a large portion of 2020. The Rangers plan on sticking with in-house relievers to help fill Bush’s void in the immediate term, according to Wilson, though he suggests the injury will place a greater urgency on the club to acquire outside help before the July 31 trade deadline.
  • Padres left-handed reliever Jose Castillo – out all season because of a flexor strain – could be one bullpen session away from restarting a rehab assignment, manager Andy Green said Thursday (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). The 23-year-old was pitching in what was supposed to be his final rehab appearance June 10 when he suffered a setback. Castillo was a quietly outstanding piece of the Padres’ bullpen as a rookie in 2018, when he pitched to a 3.29 ERA/2.64 FIP with 12.21 K/9 and 2.82 BB/9.

AL West Notes: Stroman, Astros, Yordan, Trout, Laureano

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Marcus Stroman has been mentioned as a possible trade target for not only the Astros, but virtually every team in baseball that could be looking for starting pitching help.  Houston’s interest in the Blue Jays righty, however, dates back to at least 2017, as Peter Gammons reports (Twitter link) that the Astros heavily evaluated Stroman when exploring pitching targets that summer.  Houston “did almost as much work on” Stroman as they did on eventual acquisition Justin Verlander, Gammons writes.  Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle addressed Gammons’ tweet and the Astros’ pitching needs as part of a mailbag piece, noting that Stroman’s pitching style doesn’t match Houston’s preferred model for a starter, though the Astros don’t hold hard and fast to that model — case in point, their signing of Wade Miley last winter.

Here’s some more from around the AL West…

  • Yordan Alvarez left today’s game after three innings due to what the Astros described as “discomfort” in his left knee. (MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart was among those who reported the news.)  The injury isn’t thought to be serious, as Alvarez said he could have continued playing, though manager A.J. Hinch said he removed Alvarez “as a precaution” and “we’ll give him a day or two” to get healed up.  Alvarez initially suffered the injury after fouling a ball off his knee on Tuesday.  The rookie slugger has been nothing short of incredible during his first 65 Major League plate appearances, with seven homers and a .298/.385/.719 slash line.
  • Before Mike Trout signed his record-setting extension with the Angels in March, Phillies fans long wondered if the superstar would one day join the Phils to play closer to his hometown of Millville, New Jersey.  As Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller writes, however, Trout appreciates keeping some space between his real-life home and his adopted hometown of Los Angeles.  “Obviously, a lot of people from home wanted me to come back east.  We were thinking about it, my wife and I,” Trout said.  “But it’s perfect to be able to go back in the offseason and have a life, be myself and spend time back in my hometown. It’s always good to go back.”  The story is well worth a full read for Trout’s loyalty to the Angels, the connection between Trout and Millville, plus the interesting note of how Bryce Harper got in touch with Trout before signing to learn some details about the Philadelphia area, prior to Harper’s deal with the Phillies.
  • The Athletics are known to be considering extensions with several of their players, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle adds Ramon Laureano’s name to the list of those under consideration for a long-term deal.  “Laser Ramon” has already gained attention for his excellent throwing arm, and has also shown some promise at the plate, entering today hitting .261/.306/.440 with 12 home runs over 314 plate appearances.  An extension for Laureano would probably be a relatively inexpensive investment for Oakland, certainly in comparison to the much greater dollar figures it would take for the A’s to extend the likes of Matt Chapman or Marcus Semien.  But, there’s also no real rush to extend Laureano yet, as the outfielder has yet to amass even a full year of MLB service time.

West Notes: Leake, D’Backs, M’s, Hampton, Padres, Alvarez

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Some rumblings out of both the AL and NL West divisions…

  • The Mariners and Diamondbacks discussed a potential trade earlier this week that would’ve sent Mike Leake to Arizona, though in the words of FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link), these negotiations “never got serious.”  As we heard on Thursday, Leake was never contacted about the trade, which would’ve been a necessary step since Leake has a no-trade clause in his contract.  Given that the M’s have shown a willingness to eat money in trades of their veteran players, Leake could have been (and perhaps even still is) a particularly attractive option to a D’Backs team that doesn’t have a ton of payroll room.  In Leake’s case, Seattle would also be sharing the financial burden with the Cardinals.  As per the terms of the trade that brought Leake to the Mariners from the Cardinals, St. Louis was responsible for $9MM of the $36MM owed to Leake over the 2019-20 seasons.
  • In the words of one Padres official, there is still an “outside chance” that the club could ink 23rd-round draft pick Maurice Hampton, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes, despite Hampton’s commitment to play both baseball and football at LSU.  Hampton reportedly wanted a $2.75MM bonus to begin his pro baseball career, and while the team believes this asking price may have dropped, it still represented a hefty enough demand that Hampton fell to the 23rd round despite a consensus top-50 prospect ranking in the eyes of draft evaluators.  Since Hampton was taken beyond the top ten rounds, any contract he signs worth more than $100K would see that excess money subtracted from San Diego’s $10,758,900 draft pool, leaving the Padres with less money to sign their other picks.  However, the team has been trying to create extra financial space within their pool — the Padres took four college seniors (who have less negotiating leverage) with their picks in the seventh thru tenth rounds, and saved almost $543K when sixth overall pick CJ Abrams agreed to a below-slot bonus.
  • Yordan Alvarez enjoyed a dream debut in the majors today, going 1-for-3 with a walk and his first MLB home run, a two-run blast that proved to be the winning score in Houston’s 4-0 win over Baltimore.  The young Astros slugger is considered one of the game’s most promising young bats, though there is far from a consensus on his overall value as a prospect, The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan writes (subscription required).  Alvarez is largely seen as a bat-only player, with limited defensive value as a left fielder or first baseman despite some solid athleticism for a man of his size (6’5″, 225 pounds).  “Any projection of Alvarez’s future value will take a hit by an evaluator who doesn’t believe he can stick in left,” Kaplan writes, and he speaks to several writers from sites such as Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, and MLB.com about why Alvarez received a pretty wide range of rankings.

Astros Promote Yordan Alvarez

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TODAY: Alvarez is in today’s lineup as a DH, hitting fifth.  In corresponding moves, southpaw Reymin Guduan has been optioned to Triple-A and Lance McCullers Jr. was shifted to the 60-day IL, as per multiple reporters.

SATURDAY: The Astros are set to promote top infield/outfield prospect Yordan Alvarez from Triple-A Round Rock in advance of Sunday’s game, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic reports. Alvarez isn’t on the Astros’ 40-man roster, which is full, so they’ll need to make a corresponding move to create a spot for him.

Alvarez, a soon-to-be 22-year-old from Cuba, joined the Astros in an August 2016 trade with the Dodgers for reliever Josh Fields. Since then, Alvarez has developed into one of baseball’s premier prospects. The lefty-swinging Alvarez has slashed a ridiculous .343/.443/.742 (175 wRC+) with a minor league-leading 23 home runs and 49 walks (including 11 intentional passes) against 50 strikeouts in 253 plate appearances at the Triple-A level this season.

MLB.com is among the outlets with a high opinion of Alvarez, ranking him as the game’s 23rd-best prospect while lauding his offensive upside. At the same time, MLB.com notes the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Alvarez won’t provide much (if any) defensive value. Alvarez has lined up at first base and left field in the minors, and he’s likely to divide his time between LF and designated hitter in his first taste of the majors, per Kaplan. The Astros are in excellent shape in left with Michael Brantley, though they haven’t gotten much production from primary DH Tyler White.

Despite White’s paltry output, the Astros’ offense entered Saturday with the majors’ sixth-most runs and its second-highest wRC+. They also boast the American League’s top record (44-22) and a nine-game lead in their division. However, injuries to Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa and Aledmys Diaz have taken a bite out of the Astros’ lineup of late, so Alvarez could help in that regard.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Notes: Glasnow, Astros, Alvarez, Ohtani, Jays

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Even though Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow has been incredible this season, the club still plans to tamp down his workload as the year progresses, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. The towering 25-year-old has recorded a dazzling 1.47 ERA/2.39 FIP with 9.63 K/9, 1.47 BB/9 and a 51.4 percent groundball rate, but at 43 innings pitched, he’s already closing in on last season’s total. “He threw 112 innings last year and we have to monitor that,’’ said manager Kevin Cash, who added: “If we can get him extra days, we’re going to do that. If we’ve got to shave an inning off of him per start, like (Friday) night we could have taken him out after the sixth. Those are things we have to monitor and consider here early in the season.’’ For what it’s worth, Glasnow’s season-high innings total as a professional came as a member of the Pittsburgh organization in 2017, when the formerly wild hurler racked up 155 1/3 frames. A year later, the Pirates traded him and outfielder Austin Meadows to the Rays for righty Chris Archer in what now looks like a heist for the first-place Tampa Bay franchise.

Elsewhere around the American League…

  • Astros outfield/first base prospect Yordan Alvarez has gotten off to a scorching start this year at Triple-A Round Rock, where he has slashed an awe-inspiring .418/.505/.923 with 12 home runs in 107 plate appearances. The Astros have taken notice of the 21-year-old’s brilliance, according to president of baseball ops/general manager Jeff Luhnow, who said Saturday that Alvarez “certainly is making it a conversation” within the team to promote him (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Luhnow also declared, “It’s pretty clear he can hit right now in the big leagues,” and noted Alvarez would likely slot in as a left fielder for the Astros in order to make a maximum impact. At the same time, though, the Astros already have a more-than-capable regular there in Michael Brantley, and Luhnow cautioned, “The same people who were clamoring for Kyle Tucker to come up because he was destroying AAA pitching are the same people now clamoring for Yordan Álvarez to come up.” That indicates it’s not a slam dunk Alvarez will head to Houston imminently, as Tucker disappointed during a 77-plate appearance major league debut in 2018 and has gotten off to a terrible start in Round Rock this year.
  • Angels designated hitter Shohei Ohtani’s much-anticipated 2019 debut could come as early as Tuesday, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register suggests. Ohtani has been on the shelf thanks to October 2018 Tommy John surgery, which will stop the two-way star from pitching this year but won’t keep him out of the Angels’ lineup. To their credit, Kevan Smith and Albert Pujols – especially the former – have offered respectable DH production in Ohtani’s absence. [UPDATE: Regarding Ohtani’s potential activation, GM Billy Eppler said Sunday (via Fletcher): “We hope to be able to activate on him this trip but he has to get through every step of the progression so we’re not going to say anything till the progression is finished.”]
  • Prospect Jesus Lopez, whom the Blue Jays acquired from the Athletics for Kendrys Morales in March, is switching from infielder to catcher, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet tweets. The 22-year-old’s adjusting to his new position in extended spring training, per Davidi.

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