Cubs/Red Sox/Mariners Trade Possible

A reliable source told me today about a three-way deal that is "imminent."  It's always risky to throw around "imminent," but I'm just quoting him here.

Here's the scenario:

BOS gives: Bronson Arroyo, Tony Graffanino, PTBNL

BOS gets: Jeremy Reed, Will Ohman

CHC gives: Corey Patterson, Ohman

CHC gets: Raul Ibanez, Graffanino, cash

SEA gives: Reed, Ibanez, cash

SEA gets: Arroyo, Patterson, PTBNL

Let's evaluate.  There's no doubt the Cubs would be making out like bandits in this trade.  Corey Patterson is useless to them, even as a fourth outfielder.  28 year-old lefty Ohman tossed a solid 43 innings this year, and seems recovered from his January 2002 Tommy John surgery.

But Chicago's bounty seems to outweigh the former phenom and useful southpaw.  Ibanez is on the hook for just $4.25MM in 2006, and the 33 year-old is probably good for a .290/.350/.460 line in 2006.  He played 55 games in left field for the Mariners in 2005.  I've projected him at .288 with 21 HR, 84 RBI, 89 runs, and 8 steals for 2006.  Graffanino could probably chip in with some decent on-base skills from 2B or a utility role.

My Arroyo projection has him leading the Red Sox in wins with 16.  Arroyo does a good job limiting his baserunners and should have an ERA under 4.  I don't think Safeco would have a major effect on his numbers.  Reed should continue to improve all facets of his game in '06, and would be a nice pickup for the Red Sox.

There may be a holdup in the deal because the Red Sox want to trade before Graffanino and Arroyo hit arbitration, and the Cubs want to wait.  The word is that Mariners GM Bill Bavasi is strangely infatuated with Corey Patterson. If that's the case, Hendry should strike while the iron is hot.  I don't have any information on where Matt Murton would find himself if the proposed trade takes place, but he wouldn't have a starting gig for the Cubs.

Comments

[kenny lofton]

the mairiners would have to have a ridiculously retarded gm to do this trade.

oh wait....

[JMan]

hendry would definitely redeem himself in the eyes of many currently bewildered Cubs fans. Maybe it's possible that Murton was asked for in a deal for Zito or Tejada and this is Hendry taking care of the whole that would create.

[swede]

If this deal happened,
where would Reed hit
in the Sox order? Top
or bottom?

[Jake]

JMan,
Well I hope you are right about Murton being asked for in a deal with Tejada or Zito (more likely I think) and Hendry is filling a possible hole. I too have my doubts about the likeliness of Seattle pulling the trigger on this trade. It doesnt make a whole lot of sense from their point of view but then again its not like their GM has a great track record anyway. I like Ibanez but a couple things make me nervous one I've heard he is horrible defensively, two his stats were actually much better at home than the road and three his daytime average was 30 points lower than his nighttime. Does he not pick up the ball as well during the day? I know its picky but these are all relevant questions. That being said the one thing that really ticks me off as a Cub fan in what Rumor reported. Is the Red Sox want to get the deal done before Arroyo and Graffanino go to arbitration, but the Cubs want to wait? My question is wait for what!!!!???? The M's get smart and pull the offer off of the table or the Red Sox make another deal involving Clement (Would Arroyo not be traded then?) You have a chance to trade Corey, get a productive (certainly more of a sure thing than Murton) in left and a pretty good utility guy and the Cubs want to wait!! WHy?

[Carmen Fanzone]

Is it that Hendry just can't bring himself to field a player that might draw over 60 walks in a season, or one that doesn't strike out at least 100 times? Sounds like Ibanez would have been a nice fit for the right field spot (other than that whole 'He's not a rightfielder' thing) that went to Jacque Jones. As a leftfielder, it just sounds like a marginal move to put a "Dusty Trusty" veteran into a spot currently held by a young player. Unless like JMan said, Murton goes in a deal for an actual impact player.

If this comes to pass, and until the Cubs get said impact player - I say "Bah".

For the Red Sox, I'd guess that Reed would hit at the top. Looks like the SS options are down to Gonzalez (ex-Marlin) or Tejada at short? Neither of them would be leadoff hitters. Unless possibly they sign Rickey Henderson to replace Manny if they swing the Tejada deal - heh.

[Carmen Fanzone]

Oh yes ... don't forget Julio Lugo, if you come up with the Rays' gouged prices.

[JMan]

I don't know how to properly analyze the info because it doesn't provide distances, but looking at the Doubles/Triples that Ibanez hit at Safeco, it sure seems that there were 10 potential HRs hit that fell for doubles/triples.
I know you can't take much out of hit charts but it was just kinda interesting to look at.

[mike]

This trade is great cuz it doesnt really hurt the Cubs at all. They do not need Patterson, he is nothing. I don't like Ohman either, he didnt impress me and I think he was just lucky. We already have Rusch, Eyre and possibly Hill. There is no reason why we should think Murton would put up better numbers than Ibanez. If this trade does happen, it would be best if we traded Murton and someone like Hill for Zito.

[Jake]

JMan,
While you might be correct in that a possible 10 HRs fell for doubles and triples at Safeco. Im not entirely sure how to analyze that either. I guess I would agree with you that it is possible but Im not entirely sold on the idea simply because one Sexson still hit a ton of HRs there and two Ibanez has never hit 30 HRS in his 9 year career. I know SafeCo is a definite pitchers park but he also played in Kaufman Stadium and Im not sure how that breaks down or if it favors hitters or pitchers. The other thing to keep in mind is How many HRS might he lose in April, May, and Sept with the wind blowing in at Wrigley? I think this would be a good move, but like one guy said isnt really a true impact guy. He's a nice player but Im betting if you compare his stats with other LFS in the NL Ibanez is probably somewhere in the middle. I can think of 3 in our own division Id rather have than him in C.Lee, Dunn, and Bay but still it is an upgrade but doesnt make the Cubs more than a little above .500 team if its done. Noone has talked much about this starting rotation which I think at least on the back 3 needs tremendous help and minus Cincy is probably easily the worst 3-5 in this division. We have three guys that dont go more than 5-6 innings a start and should have the bullpen worn down by August if that is the case. Sorry Im not counting Wood until I actually see him on the field, but even he qualifies as basically a 5-6 inning pitcher. I really feel we need to get another starter without giving up Prior or Zambrano to compete this year.

The deal makes sense for Seattle and Chicago but Boston gets taken.

Arroyo,a solid starting pitcher AND Graffanino,a versatile veteran utility man AND a PTBNL ?

All they get back is a barely major league reliever and an unproven CFer with no power.

[RumorMonger]

I don't think Boston gets taken. Graffanino doesn't amount to much, and a PTBNL never does.

They're giving up a solid starter for a CF with even less service time, who held his own in his rookie season. Reed played great defense and his minor league record shows that his hitting will progress. And CFs are quite hard to come by.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/R/jeremy-reed.shtml

[Jman]

When do the players hit arbitration? Jan 7th? Just trying to figure out how long this deal could sit on the table.

With the Cubs Convention coming up it makes me think Hendry would want this done sooner than later in order to introduce the new players there.

RM, the Mets and Dodgers have apparently come to terms on a deal where the Mets would trade Jae Seo for Duaner Sanchez. The original source is Newsday and it was just mentioned on WFAN here in NY.

[Zonis]

This trade would be absolutly terrible for the Mariners. But then, thats the Bavasi Sports Managment for ya.

[AJ]

Perhaps Hendry is "waiting" because he wants to see if another deal will work out before committing. (Zito?)

[Jake]

AJ,
While you may be correct, my general feeling is a deal like the proposed trade between the Red Sox, Cubs and Mariners would be a precursor to a deal of Zito not after it was made. The A's have no interest in Patterson or Ohman as far as I know. Ibanez would be a LF if the Cubs had to give up Murton in any deal for Zito. I just hope they dont wait to the point where the Red Sox get pissed because arbitration comes for Graf and Arroyo and they pull out. or someone gets into Bavarsi's ear and tells him what a fool he is for making the deal and he pulls out.

[Mike]

Interesting that the source said imminent...that usually means that we should expect it to happen VERY SOON. Intersting trade for all teams. If the Red Sox don't trade Manny, then Reed seems to be a fine addition.

I just wish Manny would sit down with the Boston media or do an interview and actually explain some things. It would clear a lot of the "why's" for Red Sox Nation. If only the O's will give us Tejada...

[Mike]

Also, in a chat at boston.com (http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2006/01/04/10406_gammons_chat_wrap/) today, Peter Gammos predicted that the Red Sox end up with both Tejada and Reed, although he said he wasn't very confident.

[chris p]

graffanino is only one of four options at shortstop. the other red sox shortstop options are pedroia, cora, and machado. they are much more desperate for a center fielder where the current options are adam stern (coming off shoulder surgery), chris durbin (no experience above aa), jacoby ellsbury (no experience above a-ball), and ... manny? they also have about 50 starting pitching options, so losing arroyo wouldn't hurt much. this would be a very solid deal for the red sox.

[Ben]

bostondirtdogs says it ain't happening... I'm betting the sox are still waiting on the tejada trade. If they trade clement and arroyo then they're either confident about signing clemens or they're prepared to give papelbon the #5 spot.

Anyway, I thought boston was trying to get broxton for wells to flip him for gaithright?

[Gleebo]

I'd like to see us hang on to Ohman...even with the revamped bullpen. There's still a chance that Eyre finds trouble pitching in Wrigley with his flyball ratio. I like having Wuertz and Ohman out of the pen.

What does anyone thing the ceiling is for Murton in the next 5 years. Will he ever be capable of being better than Raul Ibanez? If we are looking at a possible trade for Zito involving him(which with the amount of people in the A's outfield this seems unlikely) I think this is a good trade.

If not, it just looks like they are giving Dusty more Chess(okay this is Dusty we'll go with Candyland) pieces to mess around with and avoid using a young player in an everyday situation.

By the middle of april rest assured Neifi will be starting most of the time at SS and Mabry will be getting way too much time in LF if Cedeno or Murton even show a hint of struggle. Dusty just loves them crafty veterans and their .240 potential.

[Ray_Oyler_Fan_Club]

ugh. another rumor made up by some xbox GM somewhere.

so...the Mariners give up a young, Gold Glove caliber CF, who will wind up developing into a fine, table-setting offensive player, along with their starting LF/DH who had given them consistent production, and get, in return:

a career underachieving, useless CF, whose paltry numbers in Chicago would go even further in the toilet in the American League and at Safeco Field, and

a worthless, #5 at best [even in the Mariners rotation] overhyped SP, who would wind up being a one-year rental before testing free agency.

this deal makes all the sense in the world for the Red Sox and Cubs though. if I were the GM for either of these teams, I'd be all over this like white on rice.

for Seattle, this deal stinks like week old fish at the Pike Place Market.

[Mike]

What's up with your source? haha BDD is saying it's not happening.

[RumorMonger]

What can I say? I don't make guarantees here, and I did mention that it wasn't practical for Seattle.

[Tim]

I know this is a rumor site and things have a tendancy to get blown out of proportion fairly quick. That being said, this trade that is "imminent" is BS...Murton isn't going anywhere, Boston still owes us for Van Buren - so why would we give them more for nothing? Ibanez WAS a good player - Murton will be better. The only thing that holds true is that this move would reflect what Dusty likes - Vets.

[Jack]

Hendry better leave room for Murton. What more does a guy have to do to earn a starting spot!? For God's sake all he's done since he came to the Cubs is hit. Murton is younger, and cheaper, and figures to get on base better than Ibanez, while still producing decent power, and maybe even a .300 BA I guess they'd make out well in this deal except it just isn't really filling any needs of theirs. And what's with being down on Ohman? He absolutely owned lefties last year, holding them to only a .173 BA while striking out 26 in 81 ABs. With Eyre in the fold as the lefty set-up man, Ohman would have the opprotunity to just be a lefty specialist, which he could do more than adaquately. The Cubs FINALLY made some strong moves in the bullpen, and before they can even test it out they're trying to rip it apart? I doubt they'll move on this deal.

[Jman]

Actually the Sox have given us a player for VanBuren.

[Tim]

Who???????

Show me where.

[JMan]

Matt Ciaramella was the PTBNL for VanBuren. Left that out by mistake.

Since BDD says it isn't happening then it must not be happening?

[Tim]

Thanks.

[Jerry]

Well it looks like old Jim Hendry is lying to us Cub fans again. He will never make this trade. Unless some blogger is lying.

[Nick]

Why would the Sox do this? Unless they knew there was a deal lined up for Tejada, they wouldn't trade their only decent shortstop.

[RumorMonger]

I don't think the Sox ever seriously considered using Graffanino as their starting SS. Most he's ever played there is 36 games in '03.

[M C]

As much as Bavasi may be infatuated with ex-Angels, I don't think anyone sans Bowden is dumb enough to do this trade. What would the Ms then do with Gil Meche? Who would play LF? Who would DH? Besides, as of at least a week ago, the offers to Boston concerning Reed started with Lester or Papelbon. Clement or Arroyo is out of the picture. The source on this is either 2 weeks behind or just really wrong.

[RumorMonger]

Yeah it looks like you're right, MC. Although the Ms do have Everett to DH.

[Uncle Charlie]

If Beanne has told Hendry he can have Zito if Murton is part of the deal, then Hendry makes this trade and ends up with both Zito and Ibanez. Otherwise, Murton is the starting LFer. How could you possibly keep a +.900 OPS youngster out of the starting lineup with mediocre veterans as his competition? Not even Dusty could do that.

[TIm]

Why the heck do the subs getting outfielders? They have about 7 of them stop letting teams trade outfielders

[Ray_Oyler_Fan_Club]

that's just another reason that this rumor came out of somebody's xbox 360...

with Murton, Pierre and Jones in the OF...and Marquis Grissom as the 4th OF...what sense does Ibanez make?

none. zero. zippo. nada.

I think this rumor's "source" was using a dartboard when he came up with this one.

[RumorMonger]

I don't think the Cubs are counting on much from Grissom or Restovich.

[Cubs]

Any new news on zito?

[Barry Zito]

Yes there is news on me, I play for Oakland, I will finish up there and then go to New York and play for the Yankees after next year. Thanks for your concern, but this board is full of fugly rumors.

B.Z.

[Carmen Fanzone]

To 'Barry Zito' and Adam: "Lighten up, Francis."

I don't know where RumorMonger gets his sources, or how much his people actually know - and he certainly isn't going to tell us, lest he lose their confidence - but I think he puts out some reasonable information, which gives us fans something to kick around during hot stove season. True, there's more than a few wild fans trying to trade Corey Patterson for Tejada straight up, and such - but playing armchair GM is all part of the fun of being a fan.

I find RM to be very even handed when analysing what's passed along to him. And if you think the sites not worth your time, I'm sure you're more than welcome to STFU, and find yourself a "Sons of Jay Buhner" site - sheesh, the guy can only report what he hears.

[Adam]

Fine, Carmen.

But let's call it what it is. This is a fantasy site.

I'd hope no one here would rely on this site for actual, factual information.

[dan]

i dont know if anyone brought this up, but ibanez might very well be trade bait. several times, hendry has been known to acquire a player to trade him. i wouldn't ditch murton, he's shown better prospects than the cubs 2 key future stars, pie and cedeno.

[dan]

everyone knows this is a fantasy site, adam. but the prospects of "future facts" being kicked around just gets some people excited.

[A-ROD]

I hope ur right
"Barry Zito"

Imagine 2007 Starting Staff

1. Big Unit
2. Moose
3. Zito
4. Wang
5. Chacon

I will be looking forward to it!!!

[A-ROD]

Good News!!!
Mark Prior has voided the final year of his contract, making him eligible for salary arbitration.

The right-hander's agent, John Boggs, said Wednesday that Prior notified the team of his decision on Nov. 29.

Prior's deal, agreed to in 2001 after he was drafted, allowed him to void the contract after 2004 or 2005, but only if he had accumulated enough service time to be eligible for arbitration. He just missed having enough service time after 2004.

His first contract had called for a $2.75 million salary next year, and he will earn far more because of arbitration.

So RumorMonger does this make it much more difficult to trade him???

[SoSHer]

This exact rumor was posted yesterday in the SoSH members only section and the words "imminent" were used to describe it.

Let's call this blog for what is is. A place to review message board rumors from across the country and nothing more.

[Larry the Cable Guy]

Hendry,
Git R Done

[C Chawson]

How did this get hijacked into a Yankee fanboy projection thread? And what are you proposing NYY trades for Zito? Sturtze?

I'm not very impressed with the Cubs transactions this year, and this doesn't make them better. The damage is already done with Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones in the fold. Unless they plan on spinning Murton (he wouldn't make a bad Manny replacement...), Ibanez doesn't have a spot. At least, he shouldn't: Murton is 24 and better.

Maybe this is the only way they can get something for CP.

[Jerry]

As an M's fan, this trade doesn't make much sense to me.

There are a few things that just don't add up:

-In recent reports, the M's are said to be targeting Papelbon and Lester in any trade of Reed. Arroyo just isn't going to be enough

-The M's are supposed to be interested in Patterson, but Gil Meche's name was brought up. Patterson is a project, and isn't a huge part of this trade

-One of the M's biggest offseason goals was to add a lefthanded hitter with power. This trade would have the M's losing one of its main lefty bats.

-if Ibanez leaves, who plays LF and who fills his spot in the lineup? Matt Lawton? Not likely.

Some other permutation of this trade could do down. However, if Ibanez is included, the M's would have to get better return that just Arroyo and Patterson. I would think that any package would have to include one of the two Red Sox prospects (Papelbon or Lester). Plus, that PTBNL would have to be pretty good, not just a throw-in.

Bavasi has made some dumb moves lately (Washburn, Everett), but give the man some credit. Would you make this trade? It just doesn't make sense.