MLB Free Agents 2007: Mark Mulder

After reading Joe Strauss's article today in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, I got to thinking about impending free agent Mark Mulder.  The standout quote:

"Mulder is certain to seek a package with higher average annual value than the five-year, $55 million contract A.J. Burnett received last December from the Toronto Blue Jays."

I don't doubt that he'll want and expect this kind of money, based on his career totals of 98 victories, a 3.87 ERA, and a 1.30 WHIP before age 29.  The problem with his contract (and most free agent contracts) is that he'll be paid largely on what he's done and not what he will do.  Burnett at least has upside.

I'm not here to bash Mulder; I know he's still a solid innings guy and that he's become one of the more extreme groundball pitchers in the game as his strikeout rate has declined.  He's a decent five-win pitcher, akin to the current version of Brad Radke.

I don't know why teams continue to overpay for this kind of production, but they do.  If you look at Mulder's projected Marginal Value Over Replacement Player, his next five-year contract could have an annual average close to his value for the entire length of the contract.  In other words, he might make $12MM in 2007 despite being worth less than $16MM over the entire period of 2007-2011.

It's understood that that's the way free agency works and you have to pay a premium to get decent starting pitching.  But Mulder's next contract looks like it will be one of the most egregious examples of a free agent mistake.  If the market overvalues starters, shouldn't teams find other ways to acquire them or else just build a dominant offense at the expense of pitching? 

Guys like Brad Radke, Mike Mussina, Kerry Wood, Andy Pettitte, and Jason Schmidt should also hit the market after the 2006 season.  The Schmidt Derby should be a wild one, especially if he returns to form in 2006 as I've projected.

Comments

[Go Cards]

Being a cards fan, I would love the hometown boy, but don't you think the White Sox will pick up his "relatively" inexpensive $9.5MM option in 2007.

[RumorMonger]

You know, I missed that about Buehrle. Thanks for correcting; it's a lock to be picked up. I'll change the post.

[Paul]

Radke has a stated desire to Retire after this season.

[RumorMonger]

I don't think it's that simple.

http://www.startribune.com/509/story/211995.html

"We will see what happens once the season is over," Radke said.

"Who knows if the Twins will want me back after this year? It depends on how I feel. It has to do with the family and some personal things, and I'll just weigh my options."

He said last year he might retire, also.

[A-ROD]

Wouldn't surprise me to see Mulder on the Southside and
Buerhle in St. Louis in 07.
God...Don't let this one happen KW!!!

[Vince]

Cards management should be praying that is case in '07 A-Rod

[Brandon Heikoop]

I know the steroid issue was overdone, but did Schmidt not lose 3 or 4mph off of his fast ball? For a guy who was a fastball-change type pitcher how can he be projected to pitch like the "pre-roid era" Schmidt?

[RumorMonger]

I would blame injuries instead of random steroid speculation, and his strikeout rate was quite healthy even if not at previous levels.

[xxJamesxx]

Mulder's value is only high because hes lefthanded. The number of premium lefties in baseball is very very low, and most teams believe they need to have a lefty in the rotation. I think the NL is where he belongs, and a team with great defense behind him is a must. Maybe Philadelphia will overpay for him ;)

[Paul]

Radke Turned Down A Four offer form Both the Twins and RedSox. It just looks like to me he was really Leaveing the door wide open. I just hope that if he does retire That he would be able to decide before the season ends so the We (Twins fans) Could thank him for sticking around and being of nicest guys and the perfect professional and a Great Twin.

[RumorMonger]

Yeah, it looks like Twins or retirement for him after this season, so there was probably no need to mention him in the article.

[Bdid]

If Mulder commands that, what will Zito bring? He's going to be second to none when payday comes! Have you been hearing anything on him Rumor?

[Paul]

Just Wondering What is going to happend the Giants after this year the team is like 400 years old that team is just going to fall apart very fast.

[Paul]

I'm too young to Remember this what was the deal With jason Schmidt going form the braves to pirates to braves and back?

[xxx]

8/28/96: Just before the waiver deadline, the Braves sent Ron Wright and a PTBNL to Pittsburgh for Denny Neagle... 2 days later they announced Schmidt was the other player in the deal.

7/30/01: A day before the non-waiver deadline, the Pirates finally give up on Schmidt (an impending free agent after the '01 season) and deal him along with OF/PH John Vander Wal to the Giants. Amazingly enough, all the Giants gave up for the two was journeyman OF Armando Rios and SP "prospect" Ryan Vogelsong.

Hope that helps.

[NeifiChicken]

The Giants will not contend in 2007, but if they play their cards right, 2008 is possible.

Lowry and Cain are two very good young pitchers to build around, they'll have Morris locked up and they have a plethora of young power arms in the minors.

The offense is a bit dry, but if they spend wisely, they can contend in 2008.

Don't forget Zito to the FA list, I'm hoping the Giants pursue him to replace Schmidt (if they don't keep him)

[Jerry]

All of this speculation is based on the assumption that the market stays the same as it was last season. I don't think that this is the case at all.

This year, there were few good pitchers. AJ Burnett and Kevin Millwood were the only guys who are standouts, and most people would argue that neither are ace pitchers. There was also a lack of depth in solid starters, with little beyond Weaver, Washburn, Byrd, and Loaiza.

Next season, the crop looks like it will be good. There are guys like Zito, Mulder, Schmidt, Radke, Mussina, Wood, and Pettitte. I would add guys like Doug Davis and Jeff Weaver to that list of very solid starters. Plus, there are a lot of guys who are solid middle of the rotation arms, like Vicente Padilla, Adam Eaton, Jason Marquis, Kip Wells, Kelvim Escobar, Mark Redman, David Wells, and Jose Contreras. There are also several guys who could really cash in with a comeback season, like Wade Miller, Sidney Ponson, Tony Armas Jr., Gil Meche, Ted Lilly, and Chan Ho Park.

Surely, a lot of these guys won't make it to free agency. But even if half of them resign, and several become non-factors due to injury or poor performance, the next crop of free agent pitchers will be much much deeper than it was this year. Plus, every year, at least a few players like the guys in the last two groups above will have big seasons in their walk years, like Millwood, Pavano, and Jaret Wright have recently. Thus, there are likely to be a few top free agents that we wouldn't necessarily view as elite players right now.

This increased depth could have several results. First, teams that are looking for an ace pitcher can actually go out and find several pitchers who really meet that definition. Thus, teams looking for a TOR starter won't end up paying a mediocre starter ace-type money due to a lack of talent available. If clubs aren't forced to settle, like the Mariners did this offseason when they overpaid Jarrod Washburn, we could see the return of reasonable salaries to #3 starters. Next offseason, there are also a lot of those type of guys who could be available.

I think that we will see a market correction next offseason. This crop should be better than the 2004-2005 season, which had a lot of solid pitchers but few great ones, and 2005-2006, which just had very few pitchers period. Perhaps the Yankees or Red Sox might overpay for someone like Zito or Mulder. But that could leave Schmidt, Davis, Pettite, and a few others left for a more reasonable price. And guys like Padilla, Eaton, Weaver, Radke, Wells, and Escobar could be there for teams that just want a decent pitcher. Markets fluctuate due to supply and demand. Next year, there will be a far better supply.