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Now There's A Trade Rumor

This is a hell of a trade rumor, and it'd be wrong not to pass it along.  According to the blog Bleed Cubbie Blue:

"The Cubs are reportedly "in discussions" with the Yankees for a deal in which the principals would be Aramis Ramirez...and Alex Rodriguez...This deal, if it happens, might also include Jacque Jones, and other lesser players including prospects on both sides.

This same source told me that the White Sox are "close" to acquiring Andruw Jones from the Braves; the price would be Brian Anderson and young pitching. That deal would also make sense for both sides.

If the A-Rod to the Cubs deal happens, also expect Todd Walker to be moved (maybe to the Tigers), and at that point A-Rod moves back to SS, Ronny Cedeno to 2B, and the Cubs get a placeholder 3B until they can either sign one or trade for one in the offseason."

Just to reiterate, all of the above comes courtesy of Bleed Cubbie Blue.  My own personal feeling is that the rumor did indeed originate from a legitimate source.  Now let's take a closer look.

As you may know, A-Rod's contract deserves a webpage unto itself.  As far as I can tell, the Yankees, or any other team, would owe him $16MM annually through 2010.  Based on projections, that's pretty close to fair value. 

Aramis Ramirez was given the unfortunate ability to opt out of his current deal and become a free agent after this season.  Even if 2006 is an off-year, I think he could top the three years, $33.5MM he's owed in the deal.  1060west sums it up: Ramirez will probably test the market given the weak class at the position

As for the other rumor - Jones would certainly be a sweet pickup for the White Sox.  Brian Anderson has been terrible this year, but he was the organization's best prospect entering the 2005 season according to Baseball America.  The Sox have some decent if not spectacular pitching prospects, so this one isn't out of the realm of possibility.  Plus, there's always Brandon McCarthy.

It will be interesting to see if this one picks up enough steam to catch the eye of the Chicago print media.  They will undoubtedly dismiss it as an Internet rumor and not credit BCB as the source.       

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I can see the Jones deal happening if it is Anderson and McCarthy or something like that. That could work out really nicely for both teams.

As for the other trade...

I'm a Reds fan, but I'd almost like to see the A-Rod for Ramirez deal go through just for the theatre of it all. However, I can't see it happening, as A-Rod has a no-trade clause and probably wouldn't agree to go to the Cubs, given the season they are having. Interesting, though.

Absolutely no way in any of the circles of hades A-Rod gets moved, especially not to the cubbies. If and it's a big if he got moved to anybody, I'd put my money on the Angels. He would thrive out there and be the perfect person to back up Vladdy. Cashman would also foam at the mouth to get his hands on Santana, and Wood. I've heard alot recently about the Yankees actually lowering total payroll so 16 million off the books which Moreno can handle and getting two maybe three blue chippers makes alot more sense than Aramis Ramirez and his impending free agency.


Young pitching also isn't getting moved for Jacque Jones. I'd be suprised if Williams makes any moves at all. He can't move Contrares or Garland cause they have no trades for this season, he'll pull another winter deal to get his needs. The team as it is currently made up has a damn good chance to repeat and doesn't really need anywork. SP and Bullpen will get them far in the playoffs and the shoddy production from CF is overshadowed by the Podsednik/Dye/Konerko/Thomeproduction. The same reason the Red Sox wont move Gonzalez for a more servicable bat at SS, not that Anderson is going to pull the CF Gold Glove, but its just not that big of a deal.

Yeah okay I'm a dumbass I saw Jones and ran with the Cubs theme. Andruw isn't worth young pitching either. Both sholders are coming apart at the seams as a result all the great web gems over the years. That plus the fact that they can win it all as currently comprised makes moving McCarthy unlikely. Plus why take Anderson when the Braves are supposively aiming for Gathright? I'd take the .200 batting avg and 40 sb over just .200 batting avg.

This is interesting timing for getting these rumors from "a reliable source", as both of those exact scenarios were floated on WSCR Sunday morning before the final game of the Cubs-Sox series. The Cubs taking on A-Rod's contract would handcuff them just as badly as Sosa's did, so this is highly unlikely.

I wouldn't assume the worst; I really don't think they have motivation to just mimic what they heard on the radio.

Sosa's contract handcuffed the Cubs because he started to suck. He started to suck because of A)lack of steroids B)questionable age and C)lack of ability to draw a walk. I don't see those three factors affecting A-Rod; he'll age well.

Anderson is worlds apart from Gathright.

This rumor might as well have been written in yellow ink. It stinks of sensationalism and shaky logic.

And once it doesn't happen, the source will be able to point to ARod's huge series against the Mets this past weekend and say "well, the Boss changed his mind."

It just sounds a little too convenient.

Substitute Carlos Zambrano for Jacque Jones and you got a deal. The trade would be more realistic trading Arod and a mid level pitching prospect such as Henn or DeSalvo plus Yanks kickin in 2-3mil a year on Arods salary for Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano.

That seems less realistic to me.

i would've never guessed someone named yankeebaseball would think the yanks deserve ramirez and zambrano for a-rod.

"Substitute Carlos Zambrano for Jacque Jones and you got a deal."
Throw in Cano, Wang and Hughes, and you have a deal. Cubs trade Zambrano for A-Rod? Lunacy.

TheRealErik, glad someone else has common sense.Why would the cubs trade the best young pitcher in baseball, that would be foolish.

"Why would the cubs trade the best young pitcher (Zambrano) in baseball, that would be foolish."

I can't tell if you are joking, but I'd be hard pressed to call Zambrano "the best", good yes, but "the best" I strongly doubt. I'd probably take Santana, Liriano, Verlander, Oswalt, Webb, and possibly Kazmir over him.

This is Ridiculous!!! Anything less than Big Z & A. Ramirez would result with Cashman being strung up in fron t of Yankee Stadium.... Has it dawned on anyone that A-Rod has a no-trade clause & would not approve such a trade since playing with the Yanks gives him a much better chance at a ring than with those Losers Since 1908...

Hey TheRealErik, I'm glad to see you're right at it again after the Yanks gave those Bums a 16-7 beat down. I guess all those years of Braves dominance & that 2000 W.S. caused Mets fans such as yourself to be delusional.

"Hey TheRealErik, I'm glad to see you're right at it again after the Yanks gave those Bums a 16-7 beat down."
Congrats. You beat Alay Soler. The mighty, mighty Yankees. OOOooo. I tremble.

Double-play Rod is a nice player, but he isn't worth a Zambrano.

You guys knocked out Wright in the 2nd inning. It looked like you guys had the Yanks on the ropes....BUT THEN A-Rod K.O. your Mets with that Grand Slam & that nice 3 Run Shot. That game was the Mets to win, but the bums couldn't get to Villone quick enough! A-Rod is easily worth Big Z since he is only 30 & one of the top 3 players in baseball...
I don't know, this trades seems to reek of Cubbie Desperationt to me.....

I'd probably take Santana, Liriano, Verlander, Oswalt, Webb, and possibly Kazmir over him.

What pitcher 25 or younger is better than zambrano? And no Liriano and verlander with there great rookie seasons arent better. Maybe in 3 years but not right now. All these pitchers you mentioned get better run support. You want to throw webb in there because of this season? He is 40 and 40 in his career. Santana has appeared in 50 more games than zambrano and has 13 more wins. Oswalt is a really really good P but he is pushing 30 so how are you calling him young? Granted oswalt has the best win loss of all the people you named.Granted Jake Peavy is having a shitty season he is the only 25 or younger than compares with zambrano.

I agree with the above post. You can't compare Zambrano with Verlander or Liriano yet. Granted they have potential and may be better later on, but you have to wait a few years to see. And Z gets no run support, he should have more wins. And dont forget he is a decent hitter, 3 HR already. And which Santana is everyone talking about. Johan is older than Z, he is like 28 so he cant be compared. And Ervin isnt as good. Z is probobly the 2nd best pitcher under 25, behind Peavy. But its getting closer with Peavy struggling.

A-Rod is easily worth Big Z since he is only 30 & one of the top 3 players in baseball...
I don't know, this trades seems to reek of Cubbie Desperationt to me.....


Ok how is A rod easily worth big Z? Big Z is only 25. A Rod a top 3 player? How so?

Zero good post for the most part. Zambrano's numbers are better than peavy's. Zambrano leads all active players 25 and under in wins.

It's just like a Cubs fan to twist everything, no where was specifications -like "can't be older than 25" or "can't be a rookie" - listed on the comment that Zambrano is "the best young pitcher" in baseball. There's not a whole lot of 25 or younger pitchers in the league, especially when I have to exclude rookies. There's still a a few pitchers 28 or younger (which is still young in my book) that's better than the tempremental Zambrano.

I forgot to add that I would take Zambrano over Peavy, and Johan is the Santana, and he is 28, but being that he's still young I can compare him. And he's better than Zambrano is or will be.

So I guess next time before I comment on a Cub fan's post, I should make sure to ask them to specify all the qualifications, because it appears the comment should have been more like "Why would the Cubs trade the best 25 year old or younger pitcher that is not a rookie and recieves little run support to the Yankees for A-Rod?"

Its just like a non cub fan to knock a cub player for being a cub player. The fact you named Webb,verlander,and liriano better than zambrano is a joke. The fact you named A rod a top 3 player is a opinion.Santana has 2 full season more than zambrano and has 13 more wins so I dont see how you are trying to say he is way better than zambrano and always will be. There career E.R.A's are roughly the same, they are both great pitchers but neither is way better than the other.

Ok, go back and tell me exactly where I said A-Rod is a top 3 player.

For baseball fans, the game is a "what have you done lately" sport. Zambrano is good, I even said that before, so I'm not sure why you are telling me that I'm knocking Zambrano for being a Cub. As far as saying Liriano being better than Zambrano is a joke, please tell me, who is better right now?

My original comment was that there were plenty of players that I would (and I quote) "probably take" over Zambrano. I was saying that there are plenty of good young pitchers out there, and that saying Zambrano is the best is far sighted. Now that we have established that by young pitcher, he has to be 25 or younger and have pitched 3 or 4 years, then maybe my list would change. But just "the best young pitcher in baseball" comment is a stretch.

On A-Rod being a top 3 player, what other players can you say are better? Pujols, probably, and maybe someone like Derek Lee or Ortiz compares offensively, but remember, A-Rod can play above average defense at the most valuable defensive position - teams don't need him to sit around and catch balls at 1st (or, in Ortiz's case, not field at all). He has a massive contract, although the Rangers are picking up a large part. To say Zambrano is better or even equal in pure value, though, is foolish. Sure, he's a good pitcher, but pitchers only go out once every 5 days, and average a little more than 6 innings a game - Rodriguez would play every day, with his career .950+ OPS, and also make his pitchers better with good defense at short.

Sorry Darin, you didnt say A-Rod was top 3. But you are saying right now? Ok fine they are doing better than zambrano right now especially liriano, but who is to say that is going to last? And you cant deny that there run support is loads better than zambrano's.

Kwang how are you saying 3B is the most valuable position? Derrek Lee is a better defensive player than A-Rod, and a 1B has to handle every ball from the infield for the most part. As a cubs fan I wouldnt have said lee is a top 3 over A-Rod, but I would say berkman,ichiro,guerrero, are better IMO.

"Santana has 2 full season more than zambrano and has 13 more wins..."

Yeah good call on that, where in those two full seasons Santana split time between being a reliever and starter. Before this season, Santana has pitched in 90 more innings than Zambrano. Santana has also had 2 consecutive (working towards his 3rd) season of sub 3.00 ERA and sub 1.00 WHIP. Zambrano walks about twice as many batters as Santana does and strikes out about 15% less than Santana.

So I'm not allow to compare present day Santana to present day Zambrano, so how about 25 year old Santana and 25r year old Zambrano. I don't really care much about wins and losses right now, because that does play alot into the pitcher's surrounding cast, so I will continue to focus on ERA, Ks, Walks and WHIP (and I am stretching, seeing that Zambrano hasn't finished his 25 year season yet, so I'll assume he maintains pace, just for arguements sake, this is in no way scientific).

Santana in his 25 year (1st complete year as a starter)
228 innings
265 Ks
45 BBs
2.61 ERA
.921 WHIP

Zambrano (is projected)
238 innings
236 Ks
130 BBs
3.33ERA
1.26

Did you notice Zambrano's 2:1 Strikout to Walk Ratio, compared to Santana's 4:1? Right now Santana has a 6:1 ratio. That's what I mean by Zambrano's not going to get better than Santana.

For the record I never said Santana was "way better" just better, and will continue to be better.

Either way there career E.R.A's are .07 diffrent. Who cares if zambrano walks more people, it matters if they score or not.

I agree that Johan Sanatana is better than Zambrano. They may have similar numbers but Santana has much better poise where Z does tend to let his emotions take over.

The others that are complaining that the cubs fans changed it to Under 25 or whatever. If you use the term young player, than there has to be an age limit. Oswalt is almost 30, that is not young anymore. 25 is a good number to use, maybe even 28 because of Johan.

And like i said before you can't compare someones rookie year to someone who has 3 good years under his belt. Didn't Hideo Nomo win around 20 games his rookie year, and now what. if you want to compare rookies than thats fine, but you cant compare Liriano, Verlander to Zambrano. In a few years you can but not in the rookie year.

A-Rod is a great player. The only person I would say is better is Pujols. Zambrano is an exciting young pitcher who walks too many people. Now lets look at this deal. The easiest way to compare players is to use WARP. I will use WARP2 since I like it better.

Last year A-Rod posted a WARP2 of 12.6. Now some of you will say that is an outlier and not the norm but ARod has had 7 seasons of 10+ WARP, and last year was only his 5th best. Zambrano last year had a WARP2 of 7.8 and Ramirez had a WARP2 of 5.0. So why is this trade not fair. Those two have a combined value of 12.8 and A-Rod posted a 12.6. A-Rod is only 2 years older than Ramirez and has better speed, defense and plate discipline. And as a shortstop A-Rod is even more valuable than he is at third base.

Zambrano is making 6.5 mil this year and Ramirez is making 11 mil. A-Rod is making 25 million but the Yankees only pay him 14. So you would actually be saving money.

This all being said there is 0% chance that the Yankees would make this trade, Lee and Zambrano and Cashman would listen but Ramirez and Zambrano would never happen. A-Rod is too valuable in his hitting and marketability. Give up this rumor it is not gonna happen

Oswalt is 28 and turns 29 in late August. Santana is 27. My stance is that 25 is young, but there aren't many comparables when you start limiting it to 25 and 3 to 4 years of experience. I agree that 28 is probably a good cut of age.

Nomo won 13 games his rookie year. He also enjoyed having a deceptive delivery, foreign to American players that year. Liriano and Verlander both have normal deliveries. Nomo was also 25 as a rookie, and I think he developed some arm troubles by the time he was 29. He did bounce back and have some decent seasons in '02 and '03. Who's to say Zambrano doesn't get "Dusty Bakered" and end up with arm problems this year or next?

As far as run support
Zambrano:
'06 - 3.89
'05 - 3.55
'04 - 4.55

Santana:
'06 - 3.82
'05 - 3.67
'04 - 4.21

So it's pretty close, with Zambrano probably getting the edge in run support, but Santana winning 8 more games over that span (actually 9 if you count the playoff game in '04). Zambrano's playoff performances have been forgettable so far.

Ok kyle your on crack. Now zambrano and ramirez was more than I would be willing to offer. But now you have just gone crazy adding lee in there, lee had just as good of a year last year if not better considering the cubs team last year was nowhere as good as the yankees.

I dont think zambrano will have arm problems (knock on wood). He is mainly a fastball,and sinkerball pitcher.He does throw a slider but not often.

'Kwang how are you saying 3B is the most valuable position?'

3rd base isn't too important, I was assuming A-Rod would move back to SS.

do you all forget the yankees need an OF to replace matsui? Yes, jones fills that need. Aram is in there to fill in the void in money and the spot at 3rd that arod would leave behind.

I think this is a good site and I think that it usually puts out legitimate rumors. This one does not sound like one however. Really, why would the Yanks do this? To save money? This sounds like Cubs fans/management wishing upon a star.

and, seriously, who thinks Zambrano is more valuable than A-Rod? Seriously. A position player who is one of the greatest players of his generation versus a young star pitcher who Dusty overworks every fifth day? Let's not get too crazy on this thread.

ptk I realize the Lee thing is not realistic but I am saying for A-Rod to be traded I would have to be blown away.

As far as pitchers better than Zambrano under 25, Peavy has been better but thats been said. I would say that Kazmir is better currently although he fails the 3 years of service rule. Willis is also better than Zambrano.

How is peavy better? Look at there numbers.Kazmir isnt better either, he is nearly a .500 pitcher in his career with a higher E.R.A. Granted he pitches for the devil rays and is really good, I dont think he is better than zambrano.Willis I will give you, he is really good too but once again the numbers with zambrano are really close. I would love for the cubs to trade a shatload of prospects to bring him back.

I think he said Peavy "has been better". But I agree with ptk, I'd take Zambrano over Peavy. Petco is a rediculous pitcher's park, while Zambrano plays in it's polar opposite and still puts up similar if not better numbers. Though Z walks too many batters.

Do the Cubs have anything remotely decent enough in terms of a prospect package to compete with the rest of the major league when Florida finally trades Willis? I don't know but I'm thinking Pie and Hill isn't going to get it done.

If you are going to use WARP as a comparative statistic for value on a team with a fixed number of players, you have to assign an additional WARP to the playewr who is being traded singly. I.E. if you say that Jacque and Ramirex have a cumulative WARP of X, and ARod a WARP of Y, you also have to count the WARP of the player that would normally being playing Jacque's future position, because you would have to be sacrificing that to get him...

I am a Cub fan, and I will say that A-Rod is one of the top 3 position players in baseball. He's one of the beast players ever, so I'm no sure how he couldn't find his way into the top 3 current players.

As to the trade rumor, the proprietor of the site where that rumor originated is employed by the Cubs marketing department, so I would take that rumor with a grain of salt. The presence of the rumor only serves to generate interest in the Cubs and the season. Since the trade makes little if any sense from the Yankees perspective, I'd feel safe blowing off the rumor.

Does Al really work for the Cubs?

Yes. He writs a small column each month for Vineline, the Cubs monthly magazine published by the marketing department. He apparently recieves a very small stipend for this work, but to me it represents a conflict of objectivity. His writing seems awfully positive, even for him since that started.

I was not aware of that.

Darin.... The cubs have enough arms and position players in the minors to make a push for Willis. Guzman and Marmol are on the Cubs roster right now, either one of those 2( I prefer giving up guzman), pie,hill, theriot,restovich,sing.It would prob take 3 to 4 of these players should they wish to move willis. But they are playing pretty good right now so I dont know if they will even move him.

Its funny on this topic, it says todd walker maybe to the tigers. Where would he play? Placido Polanco is better on defense IMO, and a better #2 hitter.

mikebornemann - Thanks for the info on Al. The thought of A-Rod out of Yankee Pinstripes & in Cubbie Blue gave me the shivers.

Anyways is there any chance the Cubs become buyers by the 31st deadline. I mean would they consider going out & trading for a big name to give their fanbase something to be happy about considering the atrocious season occuring at Clark & Addison? Carlos Lee, Soriano, Zito, etc.

Colonel, if they become buyers it will be for someone they know they can resign or for a player that will be with them next year. I dont think its a smart move to give something up for someone that wont be there next year.The best thing the cubs could do is sell to mark cuban, going to church for prayer now.

There is not even a remote chance in hell that the ARod deal happens and I'm absolutely shocked that anyone even thinks it's even a slight possibility.

So I'm supposed to believe the Yankees are going to trade Alex Rodriguez (a guy signed for years to come) for a good but still inferior third baseman and a decent to not so good outfielder who they only need for a couple months.

Furthermore, the Cubs are going to take on A-Rod's mammoth contract, when they already are doing terrible this year.

And also, A-Rod is going to wave his no trade clause to go from the Yankees, a team almost always in contention, to the Cubs, on pace to lose 100 games?

I'm absolutely blown away that anyone could even remotely think this is possible.

As for the Cubs becoming buyers, only if they're morons, or if they manage to find someone who agrees to a multi year extension before coming to the Cubs. You know what will make the Cubs fans a lot happier? Being sellers or not doing anything so that in a couple years, their prospects can come up and they can contend again.

"There is not even a remote chance in hell that the ARod deal happens and I'm absolutely shocked that anyone even thinks it's even a slight possibility."

"I'm absolutely blown away that anyone could even remotely think this is possible."

so Kyle, are you saying I should not have ordered my custom A-Rod Cubbie's Jersey?

I think what Kyle means is that I should stop thinking about burning $150 (my A-Rod Jersey) since he is not going anywhere...

RumorMonger, do you know whether scouts who are looking over the Yankee farmsystem like anything else besides Philip Hughes?

Hughes is the only name I have heard. Nothing about scouts looking at Tabata, etc., but who knows.

What about that quality 3rd basemen, Drew Henson...errr I mean Eric Duncan.

Last I heard was that Eric Duncan was struggling in the minors....

http://www.dailyherald.com/sports/rozner.asp?id=205188
Barry Rozner is such a fag... Barry doesn't give credit for "his" Suggestion! What a bastard thing to commit by not mentioning mlbtraderumors/bleedcubbie blue for such his source!

How about A-Rod?
By Barry Rozner
Daily Herald Sports Columnist
Posted Wednesday, July 05, 2006

Call me insane, as you do most every day, but why not Alex Rodriguez to the Cubs?

You could dump Aramis Ramirez, Jacque Jones and a reliever on the Yanks and get back a guy still in his prime to rebuild around at shortstop.

On the surface, it probably seems crazy, and maybe the Cubs would never take on that contract, but they’ve spent plenty of bad money over the years. And just in Ramirez, Jones and Ryan Dempster you would make up for A-Rod’s salary, and that’s money well spent for a change.

With Derrek Lee and A-Rod, you’d be on your way to having a legit infield again, offensively and defensively.

Not trying to start a rumor or even suggest anyone has had the conversation, and knowing the Cubs, they probably wouldn’t dream of it.

The Eric Duncan comment was a joke, I was comparing him to Drew Henson.....but I thought he got demoted back down to AA where he's putting up decent numbers. I stress "decent".

You find me one person who would take Zambrano over Santana, regardless of their ages and (chuckling) win-loss record, for this year, next year, or any number of consecutive years in the future, and I'll buy you lunch.

OMG you guys are arguing about the stupidest shit. Zambrano is good, but why argue and compare numbers of two players in different leagues and levels of quality teams in their respective divisions? Also, there is as much of a chance of the cubs getting ARod as there is the Bulls getting Lebron James and Kevin Garnett. Not gonna happen. Why would ARod approve a trade to leave the largest market in the world, a market where he not only gets exposure in the U.S., but also world wide, plays for a team who is always a move or two from the world series, to move to a perrenial loser with the weakest starting rotation in the league after dealing zambrano??? As a Sox fan, I would love it...

hi i am a mets fan... but comparing zambrano to santana or A rod is completely bogus. Zambrano pitches in the NL and is in a weaker divsion than santana. if santana was in the NL his era would be pushing under 2. zambrano would get killed in the AL because gives up too many walks... You cannot walk 130 a year in the AL and not get bombed. BECAUSE TEAM IN THE AL HAVE MANNY AND ORTIZ BATTING NEXT TO EACH OTHER, OR THOME OR KONERKO...you cant walk people and face these guys. thats why for the last couple of years the Nl cant win a game asgainst the AL in world series or in the allstar game cuz their vastly inferior. it doesnt matter what zambaranos era or w-L is because he pitches for teh NL..if he pitches in the al then his era will be in the mid fours..just ask becket what was his era last year and now this year. Ask vasquez what his era was last year and this year. Ask randy how he comes one year from being 2nd in the cy young to what he has became. on the other side look at arroyo who has turned into an ace from goin forom the al to the nl Why in the hell would the yankees trade Arod for zambrano when they can get Zito would is better than zambrano and had a better era than him until he got rocked in his last game but he has survived in the AL and will come with less prospects and the yankees can easily throw money and make him stay after this year

zambranos era against AL teams this year is 6.15... and his era against the best hitting NL team the mets is 4.85 .... these number to say he will be a sucess against tougher hitting or in the AL

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