2007 Seattle Mariners

Obviously I've fallen a bit behind on these team outlooks, but I'll keep them going even as they extend into the season.  Today we have the Mariners.

Bill Bavasi's contract obligations:

C - Kenji Johjima - $5.2MM + $0.33MM signing bonus = $5.53MM + incentives
C - Rene Rivera - $0.38MM
1B - Richie Sexson - $14MM + 1.5MM signing bonus = 15.5MM
2B - Jose Lopez - $0.38MM
SS - Yuniesky Betancourt - $0.4MM + $0.3275MM signing bonus = $0.7275MM
3B - Adrian Beltre - $11.5MM + 1.4MM signing bonus = $12.9MM
IF - Ben Broussard - $3.55MM
IF - Willie Bloomquist - $0.825MM + $0.05MM signing bonus = $0.875MM
LF - Raul Ibanez - $5.5MM
CF - Ichiro Suzuki - $11MM + $1.5MM signing bonus = $12.5MM + incentives
RF - Jose Guillen - $5MM + incentives
OF - Jeremy Reed - $0.38MM
DH - Jose Vidro - $7.5MM - $2MM from Nats = $5.5MM

SP - Felix Hernandez - $0.42MM
SP - Jarrod Washburn - $8.75MM
SP - Jeff Weaver - $8.325MM + incentives
SP - Miguel Batista - $8.33MM
SP - Horacio Ramirez - $2.65MM

RP - J.J. Putz - $2.2MM + $0.5MM signing bonus = $2.7MM
RP - Chris Reitsma - $1.35MM
RP - Julio Mateo - $1MM + $0.075MM signing bonus = $1.075MM
RP - George Sherrill - $0.38MM
RP - Jake Woods - $0.38MM
RP - Arthur Rhodes - $0.38MM
RP - Jon Huber - $0.38MM

Injured/Minors:

RP - Mark Lowe - $0.38MM
RP - Aaron Small - $0.38MM
SP - Cha Seung Baek - $0.38MM
3B - Sean Burroughs - $0.45MM + incentives

Maybe someone can tell me whether signing bonuses are typically spread throughout the life of the contract.  That's what I've done here (the Mariners seem to love signing bonuses).  By my calculations this is a $104MM Opening Day payroll.  You can't call the team cheap.

The Ms offense was the second-worst in the league last year.  They made two change.  Jose Vidro, while a subpar DH and lousy acquisition, can't help but improve upon the lackluster performance of Carl Everett and Co. last year.  And with Ichiro sticking in center, the Ms are essentially replacing the offense of Reed and Bloomquist with Guillen.  The offense appears to have the potential to reach the middle of the pack.

The Mariners have some trade candidates in Reed and Broussard, but given Bavasi's track record, I'd be surprised if he made deals with them to improve the team.   

As for the rotation, not giving 25 starts to Joel Pineiro should help.  They're going for a mostly groundball approach with this staff, and it should be better.  Last year's starters posted a cumulative 4.88 ERA.  Lack of Pineiro and a step forward from Felix might be able to put them around 4.50.

Replacing Rafael Soriano with Chris Reitsma in the eighth inning will damage the club.  And it's not a big deal yet, but lights out closer J.J. Putz is nursing a tender elbow this spring.  The pen could fall apart in a hurry.  Last year's group had a 4.04 ERA.   

To me, the Mariners have very little chance of making the playoffs this year. I suppose they could pull off an upset with some career years in the rotation, no injuries, and great leaps forward from Lopez and Betancourt.  Still, the odds are stacked against them.

   

Comments

[DentalPlan]

Anyone want to guess how long it takes Chris Snelling to outproduce Jose Vidro?

A groundball staff is nothing much to get excited about; Jason Johnson is a groundball pitcher. How do you pay Miguel Batista 3/27 and no one has picked up Jason Johnson? I don't much care for Batista. Jeff Weaver is not a huge groundball pitcher. Look at these names - Jeff Weaver, Miguel Batista, Jarrod Washburn. It's like the very definition of expensive mediocrity. What did they trade Jamie Moyer for?

Anyone have a clue why with each passing day it looks worse that they didn't grab hometown boy Tim Lincecum in the draft?

With Ed Wade out of a job, Bavasi is a good candidate for worst GM.

[mraver]

Horacio Ramirez could actually be a pretty good acquisition. The left side of the Braves infield last year was awful, with neither Chipper Jones nor Edgar Renteria having more range than, say, me.

Having a gold-glover in Beltre and Betancourt over there should improve his numbers instantly. I mean, in theory going for a GB-heavy staff with that defense probably isn't a bad idea.

[nrmax88]

I agree mraver, looking over the Seattle Roster, in the huge ballpark, and in a not amazing AL West they may stick around for a little bit this year. Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, Jeff Weaver, and Horacio Ramirez actually isnt awful. They should have a decent OF if Ichiro is Ichiro, Ibanez is comparable to last year, and Jose Guillen stays healthy, their IF isnt awful either with Sexson and Beltre being league average with some power, Jose Lopez looks like he can play, Johjima was very good last year, Betancourt can pick it and so can Beltre. They have a pretty strong defense in SS and 3B. Their bullpen isnt awful, but losing Soriano will definitely hurt. Whats the deal with Lowe, he is hurt? I liked what I saw from him last year. I think he could fill in the setup role and if JJ Putz is consistent they can be decent, but it looks like the bullpen will indeed be weak this year Roto. You never know though, bullpens are weird, they can all have career seasons at once or something, I think a lot of times bullpen arms feed off eachothers success. failure and it becomes contagious. I must say though, from thinking the M's were dead before we started, I must say they do have a small chance at making a run for the West, or atleast staying close enough for a few months to call the season respectable.

[nrmax88]

success/failure**

[tmar]

Miguel Batista is a great guy but as mentioned is a very mediocre pitcher (who got real lucky last year). If the DBacks could afford him, I'd love to trade Tracy for Beltre. Beltre's D would give the Snakes a solid infield and I think his bat might actually wake up in one of the most hitter-friendly parks.

[Yu Hsing Chen]

I agree that with the Angels and A's certainly full of IFs of their own, the M's could sneak into contention this year, but having said that, they have far more IFs of their own and not nearly as much upside as the Angels.. while being runed by a manager that's the opposite of Beanes doesn't help.

[Baseballfan79]

I like this team and think it can make some noise in the NL West, it isnt a flashy pitching staff but I think it is a solid one.

[DentalPlan]

There's a misconception that you can make a purse out of a sow's ear with good infield defense. I don't really buy that for the most part. All of these groundball pitchers you're talking about are mostly 1.50 G/F ratio guys. We're not talking about Brandon Webb/Derek Lowe types when we talk about Ramirez, Washburn, Weaver, and Batista.

I don't even think this pitching staff is solid. I don't see how people can think when your #2-5 starters are all a lock to have ERAs 4.50 or above, that's solid. That's not solid. It's ugly. What is this, the Mariners forum? Let's get real here. If you moved Brandon Webb from a team that had awful infield defense to a team that had great infield defense, I'd buy a decent ERA improvement. But we're talking about modest groundball pitchers who often already pitched in front of good defenses. There's no reason to think there's going to be a big improvement except wishful thinking.