With about 20% of the season in the books, the Blue Jays are last in the AL East and seven games under .500. Baseball Prospectus’s Postseason Odds report says they have an 11.29% chance of reaching the playoffs. Looking at their runs scored and allowed, they’re not as bad as their record looks – BP’s report says the Jays have a much better chance of reaching than the Devil Rays (2.48% despite a better record).
Even without all these fancy reports, we can see that Toronto’s playoff chances are slim. Sure, their offense has been pretty good, and they’re still waiting for Frank Thomas and Adam Lind to come around. But the Jays are carrying around a 4.90 team ERA; their rotation has been predictably bad. Chacin, Towers, Zambrano, Ohka. No one really expected those guys to post sub-5 ERAs. Probably not even J.P. Ricciardi.
Dustin McGowan is here to stay, and after a few months in the rotation he should start pitching like a solid #3. And the Jays have a little bit of interest in adding Jason Davis, who could help in the rotation or bullpen. But Ricciardi might be better suited to play for 2008, maybe sign a more legitimate starting pitcher in the 2007-08 offseason. Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail can see a bit of an overhaul in coming months, specifically naming Troy Glaus as a trade candidate.
Glaus can pretty much be counted on for a .360 OBP and .520 SLG, though it seems like he’s older than 30. This year it’s been his shoulder, Achilles, and hamstring. Despite the aches and pains, Glaus has played in about 150 games in each of the last two seasons. He makes $10.75MM this year and $12.75MM in ’08. He was also awarded an $11.25MM player option when he was traded to the Blue Jays, and has a full no-trade too. In other words, Glaus is calling all the shots.
Perhaps the Angels would want Glaus back; they have a slew of third basemen on their radar. The Phillies are another club lacking at the hot corner. The Indians, Reds, or Padres might be interested as well, assuming the contract can be worked out.