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Time For Blue Jays To Think About '08?

With about 20% of the season in the books, the Blue Jays are last in the AL East and seven games under .500.  Baseball Prospectus's Postseason Odds report says they have an 11.29% chance of reaching the playoffs.  Looking at their runs scored and allowed, they're not as bad as their record looks - BP's report says the Jays have a much better chance of reaching than the Devil Rays (2.48% despite a better record).

Even without all these fancy reports, we can see that Toronto's playoff chances are slim.  Sure, their offense has been pretty good, and they're still waiting for Frank Thomas and Adam Lind to come around.  But the Jays are carrying around a 4.90 team ERA; their rotation has been predictably bad.  Chacin, Towers, Zambrano, Ohka.  No one really expected those guys to post sub-5 ERAs.  Probably not even J.P. Ricciardi.

Dustin McGowan is here to stay, and after a few months in the rotation he should start pitching like a solid #3.  And the Jays have a little bit of interest in adding Jason Davis, who could help in the rotation or bullpen.   But Ricciardi might be better suited to play for 2008, maybe sign a more legitimate starting pitcher in the 2007-08 offseason.  Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail can see a bit of an overhaul in coming months, specifically naming Troy Glaus as a trade candidate.

Glaus can pretty much be counted on for a .360 OBP and .520 SLG, though it seems like he's older than 30.  This year it's been his shoulder, Achilles, and hamstring.  Despite the aches and pains, Glaus has played in about 150 games in each of the last two seasons.  He makes $10.75MM this year and $12.75MM in '08.  He was also awarded an $11.25MM player option when he was traded to the Blue Jays, and has a full no-trade too.  In other words, Glaus is calling all the shots. 

Perhaps the Angels would want Glaus back; they have a slew of third basemen on their radar.  The Phillies are another club lacking at the hot corner.  The Indians, Reds, or Padres might be interested as well, assuming the contract can be worked out. 

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"This year it's been his shoulder, Achilles, and hamstring. Despite the aches and pains, Glaus has played in about 150 games in each of the last two seasons."

Nitpicking a bit, but he went on the DL with a bone spur in his heel, which supposedly continues to bother him. No word on the shoulder/hammy since earlier in the spring, but the messed up heel remains a problem and is expected to for the rest of the season.

You are saying the shoulder and hamstring have not bothered him at all this year? That is all I was saying.

the Dodgers need a 3B and it has been discussed in the past that they have a surplus of SP (usually Penny is the one mentioned as a trade candidate).
Penny for Glaus?

I could see that but only if Schmidt comes back and looks decent.

The Dodgers would be crazy to trade Penny for Glaus. Glaus is pretty expensive and would block LaRoche/Loney for a couple more years. LaRoche has done well so far and they need to stick with him until he proves he is overmatched.

Glaus in Philly would be interesting. The Phils never seem happy with Burrell as protection for Howard. Glaus and Burrell after Howard would be interesting. I don't think it would be a smart move and they really should have more then enough offense without Glaus.

I could see a EE for Glaus swap if the BlueJays were to pick up some of the contract. Edwin Encarncion was sent down to AAA today by the Reds so he's pretty deep in the dog house. Though I think the Reds would be better served trading EE for someone like Salty or bullpen help, then picking up a FA 3B that really isn't a big name like Lowell though with the way he's playing this year he could be a big name by the time he's a FA.

A Kevin Kouzmanoff package might be enticing.

Just read on rotoworld that BJ Ryan had TJ surgery and he's done for the year. It's probably for the best that he got it done, but man does that ever hurt them.

Will they try and acquire more bullpen help now?

Pat Burrell's terrible. Bring on Glaus. But, would rather have Rios.

If I was JP I would wave the white flag, but I guess we'll see.

JP seems to have too much pride to wave the white flag this early.

Could Kevin Towers pull off a Linebrink for Glaus swap? That way Kouz could tear up in AAA for a full year. There's been rumbling in the past that the Padres have the money for a big trade and this could be it. KT could add a prospect to sweeten the deal. Chase Headley perhaps? It was rumored that Linebrink/Headley was offered for Sheffield so it's reasonable to expect that to be a solid bounty for Glaus as well.

This would be a trade that would add extremely valuable players to both sides. With Ryan out, JP will want a legitimate back of the bullpen arm and Linebrink can fill that. For the Padres, Glaus could be the power threat they need to go all the way. A 1-2 right side/left side punch by him and Gonzalez could be deadly and too tempting for KT to pass on.

I like the idea of Glaus/Linebrink, I had hoped last year we could have pawned off HIllenbrand for SL, but hey Accardo looks pretty good this year (so far)there are plenty of 3Bs on free agency (and maybe Arod?) Its not time for an all out firesale, but I think some strategic thought on the part of JP and the Rogers gang is waht is needed here...the minors are not exactly brimming with talent, and the window to make a championship run may extend to 2010 and be closed for some time after.

Encarnacion for Troy Glaus or Saltalamacchia? I want some of what you're smoking, bruh, please.

Encarnacion is garbage, always been an overrated player with limited skills. If Krivsky could pry Jon Lieber from the Phils for him at this point, I would consider the Reds very lucky.

No way in this or any alternate universe does Encarnacion net Glaus or Salty.

I dunno if I agree with you Sunny. I think Salty would be way out of reach, but I hardly thing EE for Glaus is a bad deal for Toronto. On the contrary I doubt Cincinatti would do it. EE is still 24, and his defense is bad but Glaus is no gold glove candidate. Consider the contracts I think Toronto would get the better end of a straight swap

Linebrink is overrated, I flat out don't trust San Diego pitchers in the AL, heck, look at Heath Bell's ERA and tell me that's for real.

Dustin McGowan, come on, I've been hearing about this guy forever, he's never going to be a #3 starter, who was that guy on the Royals, Denny Bautista, who was always projected highly and never did squat, that's who McGowan reminds me of.

The Blue Jays need pitching? Maybe they shouldn't have given away Chad Gaudin, who's pitching like an ace for the A's, for NOTHING, repeat, NOTHING. Billy Beane fleeced J.P. Riccardi there! Gaudin is 5th in the AL in ERA!

How about the Brewers trading Tony Graffanino and Jose Cappalan for Glaus? Toronto gets a decent 3B and bullpen help. Cappalan could be closer material as well.

Sunny-

I don't understand why you think EE is garbage. Hitting .276/.359/.473 as a 23-year-old in the majors is pretty good. As a 22-year-old at AAA in 2005 he hit .314/.388/.548. Both sets of numbers are very good for his age, plus he has shown the ability to steal 10-15 bags in the majors.

For comparison (all when they were 23):

Aramis Ramirez hit .300/.350/.536 as a 23-year-old in the majors (though he regressed a ton as a 24-year-old).

Rolen hit .290/.391/.532 as a 23-year-old and also regressed a good bit the following season.

Glaus hit .284/.404/.604 as a 23-year-old and regressed as a 24-year-old.

Atkins hit .287/.347/.426 as a 24-year-old.

Chipper Jones hit .265/.353/.450 as a 23-year-old (all three lower then EE).

I'm not saying he is going to be as good as any of these guys, but based on his past results, he certainly has the ability to be an above-average major league hitter and might be a star.

Basically, you are wrong and provided no actual facts or evidence to support your statement. Oops.

I think the Blue Jays would be lucky to get EE for Glaus (depending on how much $$ was picked up) and the Reds would be foolish to make the trade.

Let's play a game called who is J.P. "What's Moneyball Again?" Ricciardi going to throw money at next off season?

As far as his offense, rotation and bullpen woes go, here are my choices:

Adam Dunn
(Pending his option being declined.)
David Wells
(After seeing the money The Rocket is getting, Boomer will try to squeeze out one last season for as much money as he can and JP will overwhelm him before KT. This is obviously assuming that Boomer turns it around soon, which isn't a definite.)
Scott Linebrink
(Overrated: yes. Best reliever hitting the market: big yes.)

so are u just trying to say u think they should trade glaus?

what about there outfield surplus

why do the blue jays fans give manny the "manny sucks" chant? o thats right he kills them

I feel like Russ Branyan could put up similar numbers to Glaus if he played full time (lotta power, low avg). I'd rather package Linebrink and somebody and try to get Ichiro. Maybe if Germano turns out to be good Hensley could be packaged with Liney.

Okay what your all forgetting is the Jays have NO replacement for 3b. I would say a perfect fit would involve Andy LaRoche, but Scot Linebrink wouldn't be the main part of a deal for Glaus. Seriously, why trade for bullpen help (I really don';t get why this guy is SO chased after), if your taking away your starting 3b. It certainly won't help you compete. There's no need to trade Glaus, really, unless the package is sweet, and I see a good fit with the Dodgers.

I dunno the Dodgers make alittle sence can't betermit play SS? have some sort of deal thats Glaus going to LA for Betermit a Young Corner guy "the dodgers have afew" and maybe a pitching prospect. The jays could also hand the Dodgers some other Rental type to help with their run.

As for the Jays actualy selling thats pretty hard to do considering the players they can't get rid of I guess. Do they tell Frank Thomas ok well we signed you to get us into the playoffs but were gonna wait til next year.

Everyones quick to jump on the who will JP throw money at train but he held back this season and paid into the future with Wells.
Everyone can say but that was a bad contract for Wells, Maybe but he woulda got it from any GM in the league if they had the money and was available.

Who says it was a bad contract for Wells? It wasn't.

the Jays could and should trade Glaus, but i dont think he should come cheap even if its into the season. i thought the Jays should have traded Glaus during the offseason.

Penny has been good this season. one idea i thought about even before the season was a deal involving Glaus to the Dodgers for Penny and Betemit. i think the Jays might have to include something else in there, but i dont think the Dodgers would move Penny right now.

Linebrink? not enough.

as far as Gaudin, he wasnt much of a prospect with Tampa Bay or Toronto. why did Toronto give him up, 13.15 ERA, 2.85 WHIP, .470 BAA ..thats why. i doubt Gaudin continues whats hes doing so far.

Tony Graffanino and Jose Cappalan? not close. Tony Graffanino is a bench player, hes garbage.

we are talking about Troy Glaus, all star calabre 3B. someone you can pencil in for 35+ HR's 100+RBI's. its going to take more than some of the players ive seen mentioned. hes also not in a contract season so its not a rent a player.

"Linebrink is overrated, I flat out don't trust San Diego pitchers in the AL, heck, look at Heath Bell's ERA and tell me that's for real."

What's your basis for not trusting SD pitchers in the AL? The only example we have is Akinori Otsuka and if that's all we have to go off of, then I'd for sure say SD pitchers can be trusted. Unless I'm remembering wrong, I could have sworn Bell was highly regarded with the Mets so I'm not surprised at all to see him posting dominant numbers.

Rudy Seanez was dominating in San Diego in 2005, and Heath Bell was never all that at all. Linebrink had a 3.57 ERA last year and a 3.22 this year, in that park, that's simply not that impressive. Chris Young was not an ace in Texas though he was good, Woody Williams looked good in San Diego, Alan Embree and Jon Adkins suddenly become highly effective relievers, Brian Sweeney, Scott Cassidy, in 2004 Blaine Neal put up okay numbers, Antonio Osuna, seriously, how many examples do you need? The lesson is simple: Don't buy high on these San Diego relievers.

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