Mailbag: Musical Chairs In Center Field

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Rusty from San Diego writes:

Given the large list of potential free agent CFs for 2008, which teams do you think are likely to replace from within the organization, which ones are likely to retain their current guy with a new deal, and which are likely to sign one of the many free agents? Who is going to make the biggest splash in the CF market? Who is going to make the biggest mistake?

Interesting question.  First, a review of available players who can play center:

Ichiro Suzuki
Andruw Jones
Torii Hunter
Eric Byrnes
Corey Patterson
Milton Bradley
Aaron Rowand
Mike Cameron
Kenny Lofton

At the least, we have to figure out what the Mariners, Braves, Twins, Orioles, Phillies, Padres, and Rangers will do in center field.  Other teams that could acquire a CF: Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Nationals, Marlins, and Pirates.  About 9 CFs (if you count Byrnes and Patterson), anywhere from 7-13 teams with a possible need.  A lot of different combinations.

Mariners - Bring up Adam Jones to play center field; let Ichiro go.  Jones, hitting .318/.388/.594 in Triple A before his 22nd birthday, is the real deal.  The Ms could always retain Ichiro and use him in right field, but I see them as more likely to invest in pitching this offseason as a reaction to their current staff. 

Braves - Sign Cameron, let Andruw go.  This has been speculated by Ken Rosenthal and others, and it makes perfect sense to me.  For the Braves' sake, hopefully a two-year contract.

Twins - Sign Lofton, let Hunter go.  The first part is just a guess, but the Twins are never big spenders and I don't see anyone who can step up from within.  Bradley could be another option here.  The Twins are still in a pennant race, so they can't afford to trade Hunter for a prospect-type CF.

Orioles - Sign Andruw Jones, let Patterson go.  Could Andruw be the next face of the franchise?  Miguel Tejada may be on his way out, and acquiring/signing Mark Teixeira is no small task.  If the O's get Matt Wieters signed, negotiating with Boras on a huge deal like Andruw's seems more possible.  Plus, Andy MacPhail and the Cubs have never had issues with Boras.  I'll call this one the biggest mistake.     

Phillies - Let Rowand go, fill internally.  The Phils have two solid center field candidates in Michael Bourn and Shane Victorino, so I think Rowand is a goner.

Padres - Sign Rowand, let Cameron go.  Just a guess here, I have to fit the pieces somehow.  We know the Padres have some interest in Rowand, and they seem unlikely to pony up for one of the Big Three.

Rangers - Sign Hunter, let Lofton go.  Will Jon Daniels use 2008 as a rebuilding year?  It seems unlikely to me, given some of the large unmovable contracts on the roster.  Why not add another in Hunter?  Vernon Wells is no longer an option, and the Rangers don't have anyone in the pipeline.  Andruw could certainly make sense here too.

Red Sox - Continue using Crisp, promote Jacoby Ellsbury early in the season.  I think the pressure of being Boston's Opening Day CF could be too much for Ellsbury, but waiting a month or two could alleviate the pressure.  That's about the most the Sox could take of Crisp.  Slight chance of a stopgap insurance plan like Bradley or Lofton.

Yankees - Stick with Damon.  Not ideal, but the Yanks are locked in with Damon and may have much more pressing needs to fill this winter.

White Sox - Sign Ichiro.  This just seems right.  It would help bring some attention back to the South Side following what could be a very ugly second half.  Any kind of fire sale is going to leave fans bitter, and making a splash with Ichiro could help ease the pain of losing Mark Buehrle.  Of course, Rowand remains a strong option as well.  I'll call this one the biggest splash.

Nationals - Sign Patterson.  Toolsy, Bowden's type (assuming Bowden is still around).  My guess is that C-Patt's awful '07 coupled with the surplus of available CFs leaves him with a weak Ron Belliard type deal.  As a Boras client, he'll probably be encouraging to sign for only one year as an attempt to re-establish value.

Marlins - Fill position without free agency.  It's been a while since the Fish had a decent, regular CF.  I predict that by the end of this season, they'll acquire a young player.  Could be Elijah Dukes, could be Matt Kemp via a Dontrelle Willis trade, who knows.

Pirates - I was going to conveniently slide Eric Byrnes in here, but that doesn't make sense.  Byrnes is set to snag a three-year deal.  Let's sidestep him by saying he signs on somewhere to play a corner position.  The Bucs will perhaps employ some sort of stopgap and hope Andrew McCutchen is ready by All-Star break '08 or even sooner.  The kid needs to figure out Double A first though.  He's only 20.

Weigh in below!  How would you sort this thing out?

Comments

[DentalPlan]

Could the Giants be interested in Byrnes? He's happiest out west.

I don't know if Adam Jones is the real, real deal. The list of young, toolsy center fielders with good numbers but high strikeout totals who fail to produce in the minors is a long one.

[morisato]

I don't think Texas will sign Torii Hunter, partially because they drafted Julio Borbon to eventually become their everyday centerfielder. Byrnes is more of a fit because he fits the needs of the short term and would be able to slot over to left in a few years.

[jfish26101]

I still don't see why everyone thinks the Braves will sign Cameron. Hudson and Smoltz are due 6 mill raises each. We were already 7+ over the 80 mill cap before the season started. Unless Liberty comes out and says we are giving you at least 90 mill (at least) to play with, this makes no sense. Even if Wickman walks, we still have arb and salary increases. Their replacement comes via trade or from within in my opinion.

[jskohl]

WHY, WHY, WHY, WHY,? Why the hell did Ned Colletti sign Juan Pierre? There is a pretty nice list of center fielders! Yet, for some reason, Ned Colletti had to jump the gun one year early. Ned Colletti's two big offseason aquisitions: Juan Pierre and Jason Schmidt. How's that working out?

[ArodSucksAtLife]

"WHY, WHY, WHY, WHY,? Why the hell did Ned Colletti sign Juan Pierre? There is a pretty nice list of center fielders"

Ya I went over the same arguments for why did Theo sign J.D. Drew.

Basically the Red Sox are going to go with Ellsbury in CF to start next year. If Coco can re-establish his bat, he will be dealt by the deadline, he will be dealt before spring training next year guaranteed. It's fun that we can now look back at everyone's b.s. that the Sox were looking to add Andruw Jones, and call them on it.

[RotoAuthority]

Don't forget Brandon Moss, he is near big league ready as an RF for Boston.

[RotoAuthority]

Interestingly Adam Jones' top comp. is Elijah Dukes. Milton Bradley is #11. Is Jones a jerk or something?

[DunkinDonuts]

I'm not sure how Moss gets in as anything more than a platoon player, what with the $56M man penciled in for 120 games a year.

Also, if the logjam seems bad now with Hinske and Wily Mo, then it will be that much worse if Moss and Murphy keep performing. At least one has got to be traded while the stock is high.

[jskohl]

After ridding themselves of JD Drew, why sign Juan Pierre? It made no sense. I would have rather signed Kenny Lofton for one more year or give Matt Kemp some playing time. The Dodgers are desperate for some power.

[J.L.]

I think Byrnes wants to/will go to the Giants. He openly admits to being a Giants fan, I'm pretty sure he's from the bay area. They'll have room with Bonds gone or they'll get rid of Winn.

No way Kemp goes for Dontrelle. No, no, and no.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

Brandon Moss is going to be a good major league ball player. He won't play for the Red Sox, but any team that takes him away from us in a trade will get a damn good ball player. The reason David Murph got called up today was to get showcased for a trade, if it was talent alone Brandon Moss would have gotten the call.

[jskohl]

I don't think Kemp will be traded for Dontrelle. But the Dodgers still have Andre Ethier and Delwyn Young has been at AAA Las Vegas forever. Delwyn Young is 25 years old. If he isn't ever going to play in Los Angeles, then trade him. With Matt Kemp and Ethier up, and Jason Repko coming back next season from injury, there is no place to put Young.

[zubes007]

"WHY, WHY, WHY, WHY,? Why the hell did Ned Colletti sign Juan Pierre? There is a pretty nice list of center fielders"

Because he is an idiot and a terrible General Manager...the success of the team the last 2 years is ALL due to DePodesta (Penny, Lowe, Kent etc.) and Logan White (Martin, Broxton, Billingsley, Kemp etc.)

The only useful things Colletti has done were getting Takashi Saito (which was huge fluke) and signing Rafael Furcal (even a broken watch is correct twice a day). Basically all of the other additions he has made (Schmidt, Pierre, Lugo, Betemit, Baez, resigning Nomar etc.) have been unmitigated disasters or lateral moves that clog the depth chart and bloar the payroll (Ethier, Gonzalez).

[DentalPlan]

Brandon Moss strikes out too much for me to believe in him. We've seen this a lot, Dallas McPherson, Kelly Shoppach, etc.

[J.L.]

Of course if Depo was still the GM, Milton would probably still be patrolling CF. Actually, compared to pierre, that sounds good.

[was385]

I think the Braves are more likely to go within the organization with an option like Gregor Blanco or moving Francoeur to center and starting Brandon Jones in right. After this season, the Braves have a couple players getting big pay raises and I would have to think that the money for a CF goes into a new starter.

[jskohl]

I don't think Colletti is done with the stupid moves. I can see him moving 2 or 3 or more young talented players for a rental bat.
Hey, Zubes007, do you know who the Dodgers top catching prospect is?

[jfish26101]

Here is my hypothetical situations for fun with some obvious stretches but what do I know:

Braves – Promote Blanco or perhaps Brandon Jones later in the year. Could possibly land a CF via trade, convert Lillibridge back to CF or move Francoeur over.

Phillies – Let Rowand walk and PG makes a splash by signing Ichiro. He brought him over when he was in Seattle and they could drop Rollins in the order. If PG isn’t around, they probably solve the position in house with Bourne.

White Sox – Bring Rowand back to officially complete the burn on Philly.

Twins – I’m going to go out on a limb and say he resigns. Hunter seems like a loveable guy and seems very comfortable there. They have a bright future and there really isn’t anyone who can steal his spot away.

Red Sox – I’m going to go with Roto on this one and say they stick with Crisp until later in the season when Ellsbury takes over.

Mariners – Going to stick with Roto again and say the let Ichiro walk (not that they have a choice really) and promote Adam Jones who has been on a tear.

Yankees – I don’t see how they could manage to get out of the situation they are in. I suppose Damon could move to LF and Matsui to RF if they didn’t pick up Abreu’s option. Either way, they are screwed so it doesn’t make too much of a difference.

Rangers – I’m sure they would love to land one of the big name FA but I think Cameron is the best they will be able to do. They could potentially resign Lofton I suppose.

D-Backs – Young has solidified himself as the future CF of this team for years to come.

Nationals – I kind of like the Patterson pick actually. I think Byrnes would be a nice play for the Nats. He is an exciting player always joking around and diving around in the field like he is Eric Davis.

Marlins – I think they could potentially net Dukes but as someone said in the Dukes thread, it will still have to be a fair deal because the D-Rays can afford to be stubborn and we all know that is exactly what they are.

Cubs – Pie finally gets to play every day.

Pirates – I don’t see how McCutchen will be ready unless they want to completely screw the kid up. He is struggling mightily in AA so I think he will repeat it and potentially be a late season call up next year. I think Duffy will be out there roaming CF or perhaps Rajai Davis if the Pirate fans are really unlucky.

Giants – Stick with Roberts

Mets – Beltran.

Royals – I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Royals sign AJ. He hasn’t played well enough to get the contract that I think he could have got with an average season. He still has time to turn it on but I just don’t see it as likely. I could potentially see him resigning with the Braves if Liberty upped the payroll a little but of course that is unlikely as my guess here. Moore dabbled into FA last year with Meche. DeJesus could move to LF. I’m really stretching here but I don’t know where he might end up.

Angels – Stick with Mattewes.

Dodgers – Stick with Pierre.

D-Rays – Upton gets a shot or perhaps Crawford moves over and Upton gets LF.

Astros – Pence.

Brewers – Hall.

Jays – Wells.

Indians – Sizemore.

Cardinals – Edmonds if he is healthy but personally I think he should call it quits. It’s bad when a baseball player can’t keep from having concussion problems. I’m going to go with the feel good story and say Ankiel gets the job.

Reds – Hamilton is turning out to be one heck of a pick up in the Rule 5 draft. That franchise is really starting to turn around I think.

Orioles – I’m not sure what will happen here. Personally I think they need to completely clean house in the FO. If the fans were really lucky, I’d like to see a new owner but I don’t think they will be that fortunate. I could say Payton moving over or maybe a Bradley signing if there are no takers (simply because I don’t know where he might end up).

Rockies – Stick with Taveras.

Tigers – Probably stick with Granderson with Maybin on the way. I’d like to see Granderson move to LF and them get a quick fix for a year and let Maybin develop.

I’m missing a couple teams but I got to run so that will have to do. Enjoy and take it light heartedly since it was done for fun. ;)

[Blue]

"Reds – Hamilton is turning out to be one heck of a pick up in the Rule 5 draft. That franchise is really starting to turn around I think."

And a single tear rolls down my cheek.

They'll have to add an outfielder of some sort. The good news is that Hamilton has one of the best outfield arms in baseball, so he could play a great RF with his range. Griffey at this point probably wouldn't object to moving from LF to RF. So, they have a lot of flexibility in that they have a place for a LF, RF, or CF, depending on how they want to play it.

I can see Krivsky going hard after Torri Hunter, since he was in the Twins front office for so long. However, the only thing appealing about the Reds to him at this point is probably the fact that he could play along side Ken Griffey Jr. during what could very well be the last 1-2 years of his career.

[DrKook]

Mariners: Yes, go with Adam Jones and hope he's anything close to Junior.
Braves: Attempt and then resign Andruw Jones. Boras or no Boras this can be done. Otherwise, you have a huge hole on the team. Otherwise, try Lofton. I don't think he's been to Atlanta yet.
Twins: Never huge in the free agent market. I wouldn't count on it starting now. Fill from within or sign a stopgap until you come up with another alternative. Maybe Byrnes?
Orioles: Go for Jones, but I don't expect he'd go there unless they offer him the moon. More like Rowand or Cameron here.
Phillies: Rowand is gone. Gillick could pursue Jones here.
Padres: Rowand or I'd go after Ichiro.
Rangers: Ichiro, Hunter or Jones. Hunter seems more likely here since he's from Texas but they are the Rangers. Something nobody has proposed is that they Rangers might try to trade for Dukes and stick in him CF.
Yankees: Ichiro gets signed here. If not,then Jones because I believe Damon becomes the DH or Ichiro plays RF because I see the Yanks dumping Abreu at some point.
Redsox: Crisp isn't much to brag about but why not keep him until Ellsbury is ready.
Nationals: Bowden would love another head case like Patterson.
Whitesox: Could get Rowand back or Cameron.
Pirates: They might take Patterson for one year or get Byrnes and wait on McCutcheon or just fill in the gap some other way.

[A2000]

Roto what would think you of the Yankees letting Johnny Damon go for Triple A CF Brett Gardner who is an ideal leadoff man? He reminds me of Damon (few HRs, lots of speed) and I think he could compete at the Major League level.

[darkstar1661]

DrKook,
Yeah Loften played in Atl in 1997...Kinda burnt them bad too because the Braves traded Justice & Grissom for Kenny who ended up resigning with Cle for 1998. In essence the Indians got Justice and the players they got from Grissom being traded for a 1 year lease of Lofton to the Braves.

[bizfitch]

Braves: I think the Braves will probably fill from within, move Francoeur over put Brandon Jones in RF. However I think if the funds were avaliable signing Eric Byrnes would make a huge impact by bringing in some much needed energy. Don't count out an inovative trade from JS he might be able to steal away Baldelli while his value is down.

Mariners: I agree that they'll probably go with Adam Jones.

White Sox: I really think that they want to sign Rowand they love that guy, Ichiro is just as likely.

Phillies: I think the big splash might come here, they would really sting the Braves if they signed A.J and he may benefit from that launching pad, if they can move Burrell (which would be difficult) then I think they sign one of the big three (Ichiro, hunter, Jones)

Padres: They'll go cheap Bradley, or Byrnes, they should just hang onto Cameron

Rangers: Hunter hometown guy right? Or maybe Jones.

Twins: This is a tough one cause they likely won't spend what it would take to retain Hunter and I don't think there are any immediate internal replacements, I'll guess Rowand if the Sox and Phils pass on him

Orioles: What a mess, they probably shouldn't sign a big long term FA, Lofton maybe Cameron

Nats: Patterson makes sense although he won't make any impact

Yanks: Yeah I don't really see them worrying about CF next year

Red Sox: They'll stick with Crisp for a while and hope he can build up his trade value, then slide in Ellsbury

[AkulaMkii]

Everyone keeps connecting Rowand to the Padres, but I really don't like it. He's going to be severely overpaid by someone this offseason as he is having a career year. His .316/.395/.489 line is 30 to 40 points above his career average in every category, his HR pace is way ahead of anything he's done before, and even his fielding percentage has been above average. I think this is clearly a case of a guy having an excellent year before impending free agency. He will return to .270/.330/.430 form as soon as he gets a nice 4-year deal.

I hope the Padres re-sign Cameron (he should get similar money to what he is earning now given the number of FA Cfs) or get a bargain with someone like Milton Bradley. Paul DePodesta is in the Padres' FO now and he is the one who brought Bradley to the Dodgers. Plus, Bradley is well-suited to play at spacious Petco.

[PeteRose]

"Everyone keeps connecting Rowand to the Padres, but I really don't like it. He's going to be severely overpaid by someone this offseason as he is having a career year. His .316/.395/.489 line is 30 to 40 points above his career average in every category, his HR pace is way ahead of anything he's done before, and even his fielding percentage has been above average. I think this is clearly a case of a guy having an excellent year before impending free agency. He will return to .270/.330/.430 form as soon as he gets a nice 4-year deal."

I agree...Rowand
is playing above his potential...and i don't think its beyond the Phillies FO to over value Rowand and resign him for more than he's worth.........And I think it's fairly certain that the Phillies will NOT sign Andruw Jones. he's probably the least likely of all the FA center fielders to get signed by the Phill's

[Tano]

The Yankees will not be players in this CF situation. They have already moved beyond Damon however, who is basically going to DH until Giambi is back, and maybe focus on 1b afterwards.

They have essentially already given the CF position to Melky Cabrera with the hope that his slow but steady growth will lead to him becoming the next Bernie Williams. He will be given every chance to succeed in that, within reason.

[darkstar1661]

"They have essentially already given the CF position to Melky Cabrera with the hope that his slow but steady growth will lead to him becoming the next Bernie Williams."

How long will that last if they are really going to try to compete...

Even if giving the job to Cabrera, don't they still have a hole in the OF/1B/DH mix if anything doesn't go as planned? Its not like the Yanks to have no options when the starters are questions themselves. I could see Loften or Patterson landing there as a semi-starter who will fill the first vacant hole.

[Tano]

Melky is not hurting them, so I dont think there is any need to contemplate pulling the plug on him. He is a very good defender, and after a shaky start this year, he has been hitting near 300 for the last 6 weeks or so.

Patterson would be far worse than Melky is now, and Lofton is pretty much the same. Why bother?

DH is covered with Damon, and Giambi eventually - or just Damon. Upgrading at 1b is a possibility. But the Yanks have gone into the season with an attitude that they would primarily look for good D from their 1b, and that they didnt really need a big bat there (hence Minky). They can easily get good D and a Minky type bat from Andy Phillips, or Minky himself when he returns.

Offensive production has not really been the thing hurting the team this year, nor is it the key to making a run. That said, if Tex is available without giving up more value than say a Clippard, they would jump on it, of course.

[darkstar1661]

Tano, nah I was talking about 08...

You said it currently stands at:
Godzilla/Melky/Abreu ~ OF
Giambi/Damon ~ 1B/DH
??? ~ 4th OF/replacement for struggling players

And that '???' is the one where I figure they could plug Loften/Patterson. If Melky doesn't do enough then the player replaces him, if its one of the other spots then Cabrera moves to the corner and kenny/patt is in center. Kinda protects against any problems, which you know there will be atleast one...

Would be cheaper than spending a ton for either a bench player or someone putting one of the current big contracts on the bench. Kenny/Patt would then be a semi regular spelling players across the OF and DH until they are called to fulltime duty.

No?

[kevybo1]

Is it possible that Elijah Dukes could be traded for Dontrewlle Willis?

[ZachAttack]

LoL. No way.

[Tano]

d1661,

Yeah, I see your point. But I think the plan is that Damon could function as the 4th outfielder if the need arose. If he is healthy, and Giambi is too, then they would want to make sure both get their ABs.

They seem to like the idea of going with at least 12 pitchers, so there arent many open spots. The three OFs, Damon and Giambi, Arod, Jetes, Cano, 2 catchers, someone as regular 1b, and that leaves space for 2 general utility guys - Cairo and Basak (who can play OF too).

I dont know where another mediocre OF fits in there. Better to go with the flexible utility guys.

[DentalPlan]

Someone slams DePodesta again for no reason.

What I remember is DePodesta robbing the Marlins by trading the overrated, .700 OPS, bad defense catcher Paul Lo Duca for Brad Penny and Dodgers fans doing nothing but bitching about it.

Lo Duca is one of those guys like Darin Erstad, people ascribe all sorts of fictional, non-quantifiable attributes to them. I think I'd take Penny, yeah, I would.

[darkstar1661]

Tano,

So you mean that Damon will probably be that 4th OF with Giambi at DH and the team bringing in somebody for 1st? That works too I guess, but Johnny makes one mega expensive 4th OF...

I thought we were looking at:
Pos C, Giambi 1st, Cano 2nd, Jeter SS, A-Rod 3rd, Damon DH, Melky CF, Godzilla and BobbyA on the corners. With that configuration my idea of Loften/Patterson fits nicely I think as a def 4th OF with possible Plus bat and both would come pretty cheap since there are so many guys to play center on the market. Then you have the bench be Kenny/Patt, Backup-C, Cairo, and I guess Basek covering yourself nicely for any injury or bad play across the diamond. That does mean you have the Incredible Shrinking Firstbaseman at 1st and that will probably cost the team some games...

I wonder how many contracts the team would like to get out of if they could...

Anyway, yeah if what you are saying is the lineup I completly understand not needing another CF unless they could somehow dump Johnny and sign one of the two instead...

[darkstar1661]

Dental,

Although that trade worked out ok in the long run, didn't it really hurt the team that year? I mean I remember the team was clicking on all cylinders and looked rather unstopable then all of a sudden they seemed to be in a funk after the deal...

If I remember it correctly it was LoDuca/Mota/JuanEncarcion for Penny/Choi ~ where each of the Dodgers were doing good and a pretty important part of the club, while didn't Penny pretty much instantly go down hurt and Choi, well play like Choi?

I thought most of the anger at DePo was in the fact he just gave up more than he probably needed to and too important of players at the exact wrong time to do it. I think the fans felt the Penny addition was a smart move, just the cost of bigleague regulars was way too much...

Also, if you want to talk really bad Depo deals, the Bradley for FrankieG, Andrew Brown and Swindell* trade when Gameboy had been in essence released by the Tribe and no other team was even interested... Cleveland fans are still shocked we pulled 2 top 10 prospects for our trash on that one, where we figured we would get some bullpen bum...

But again, those are more overpaying for the return than anything.

(*might not have been Swindell, but I think it was him that was included to even out the salary a bit.)

[jfish26101]

bizfitch

I don't think AJ will be going to Philly. I can't imagine their fans welcoming him with open arms. It wouldn't take long (much like NY) of him to striking out with a smile on his face to alienate the fans.

He needs to go to some place with a small market. Not only will it draw more fans to the stadium and more media attention but it won’t place him in the middle of the spot light.

Moore and he have a history, his numbers are horrible and as I said KC splurged a little to sign Meche last season. They have Odalis Perez, Mike Sweeney, Jason Larue, Riske, Dotel and Sanders all potentially coming off the books. AJ takes over CF pushing Dejesus to LF with Teahan in RF. If they simply let Sweeney go and gave the DF to Butler this could make sense (at least it does to me).

[coolpapabell]

What about Fukudome? Isn't he a CF?