Sheehan On Adam Dunn

Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus gives his analysis on some Adam Dunn trade suitors.  And it's a free article.

Is Dunn really a lightning rod for criticism in Cincinnati?  I'd like to see what those who live there think.  I feel that in this day and age Dunn is mostly appreciated for his strengths.

Sheehan's top five fits for Dunn, in order of likelihood, are the Twins, Angels, Yankees, Padres, and A's.  As Sheehan alludes to, Terry Ryan and Bill Stoneman don't make this type of trade. 

What's more, the Angels would have a serious logjam with Dunn.  You don't move Casey Kotchman off first, leaving the DH and left field spots for Dunn.  You'd rotate the DH spot between Dunn and Vlad, and the left field spot between Garrett Anderson, Reggie Willits, and occasionally Dunn.  Someone's losing some playing time in the deal, and Vlad is probably getting less time at DH to rest.  Use of Dunn on the field probably compromises the defense.  An Anderson injury could make this less of a problem.  Another thought: a coworker of mine suggested that the Angels give up some quality prospects for their bat, but force the inclusion of Shea Hillenbrand in the deal.  Not a bad idea.

Interesting to note that Sheehan calls Chase Headley unavailable.  Not sure if that is based on some inside info.  I had speculated yesterday that Headley's callup could be a showcase.

Sheehan's idea of the Yankees for Dunn makes a ton of sense, but they would have to assemble a prospect package without any real alluring name.  Well, Joba Chamberlain might be somewhat alluring.  It sounds like Wayne Krivsky would ask for Robinson Cano though. 

Comments

[Dicky LaRue]

I think all these Dunn to the Yankees rumors are absolute crap. The guy is a butcher at 1b and the Yanks are clearly playing Cairo at 1b only because he has a good glove. They could play Phelps who is also a butcher at 1b, but they don't because they value defense right now with this team.

I don't see any way the Yankees trade for Dunn at all. It makes zero sense with what they are doing and even suggesting they give up Chamberlin for 1/2 a season for Dunn is ludicrous.

If the Yanks get a 1b, I guarantee you it will be a guy with a good glove over a guy who can hit 40 HR's.

They've learned that lesson already with Giambi.

[nicksreds]

being a reds fan I am glad to see this guy thinks there are a lot of suitors for Dunn. Most reds fans are sick and tired of Adam Dunn. If you watch a game on TV or go to a game the boos' get louder and louder everytime he strikes out. I can not way till this guy it out of Cincy. People talk about his power, He plays in our friendly GABP. Shoot even Phillips and Gonzo are on pace for around 30 HR's this year for crying out loud. I can not wait until he is shipped out.

[MWD1202]

Adam Dunn for Robinson Cano? Not a chance in the world. Why would the Yanks trade a "future batting champ" who is only going to improve on his hitting for a batter who is lucky to break .250? I understand what Dunn brings to the game; the ability to hit the long ball. But I don't think the Yanks are stupid enough to mortgage a big piece of their future for him of all people. As far as Joba Chamberlain, it's an idea; but I think that as long as Brian Cashman is the GM, Hughes-Chamberlain-Betances are not going to be touched because they are the pitches with the most upside within the Yanks system.

[Sunny Reiser]

seriously, if Krivsky expects to get Robbie Cano for Adam Dunn, he needs to put down the crack pipe. Ditto the Dunn for Ervin Santana/Howie Kendrick/Brandon Wood speculation.

If he can somehow pry Santana & Aybar or Wood from the Angels for Dunn, he'd be doing just fine. Though, IMO, Santana and his problems with command/leaving the ball up would not bode well for him in Cincy's park.

[schellis]

In general "knowledgable" fans in Cincinnati hate Adam Dunn, they feel that all he does is strike out or hit homers. They feel that he is the worst defense LF in the majors, is fat lazy and doesn't give a crap about what the team does. He also isn't a team player.

They want him to morph into a Ryan Freel/Albert Pujols combination. Basically a elite hitter that gets his uniform constantly dirty.

The major problem with Dunn is that the Reds manager generally puts him in a postion to fail. Would you pitch to Dunn when you have someone like David Ross, Juan Castro and the pitcher hitting behind him? When he hits in front of someone like Jr (when Jr is actually a threat) his average spikes without loss of his power.

If the Reds deal him chances are Dunn will become a very good player becaue the team that gets will obviously have a better clue what to do with him then the Reds do.

If it were me running the show I would ask for a ton and if all I got was crap (B level prospects and spare part major leaguers) I would just pick up Dunn's option and perhaps consider extending him.

Dunn is no where near as bad the player that Reds fans believe him to be and the teams play this year is really not because of him either. His numbers show that he is having a very good year.

[schellis]

Also the park effects really don't effect Dunn because when he hits a homer it usually isn't one that barely clears the wall.

I also wouldn't want to deal with the Yankees because in general all Yankees are seriously over rated and they have really nothing in the farm system that I would want.

[schellis]

Finally the reason the Yankees are playing the glove 1B's over Phelps is because its Josh Phelps. You put a real talent out there and that would change.

[darkstar1661]

Do we really think the Angels will go after Dunn? Not only is he tough to fit into the roster but Anaheim is not a team willing to pull the trigger on deals... It would mean either sitting one of their best hitters (Willits/Kotchman) or ageing but still fan favirote Anderson who makes a ton of cash. Plus you have Shea and Riveria in the mix...

Then they would probably be giving up their best chips to bring the guy for 3rd that they really need for something they don't? If they haven't made deals in the past years to help the club, this would be a horrible one to change that trend with...

I think its more likely the Angels are even talking to the Reds because A) they were playing eachother and B) to drive up the price for teams they will likely play important games against later.

Oh and guys, Dunn is a bit more than a .250BA, 40HR guy... Its not like we are talking about Rob Deer here, Adam is a 350 OBP, 530 SLG guy who is bad in LF but isn't as bad at 1st as people are acting like. His offensive output more than makes up for the slight fielding disadvantage he has to Cairo who cant hit his weight...

The Yankees won't give up Cano of course, but that sounds like an opening offer and not the Reds real request ~ but this type of deal is exactly what we were told the stockpiling of arms in the offseason could be used for. NY needs to overcome a BoSox team which is much better, if they seriously want to try and win they will overpay to fill their needs and Dunn fits their needs rather perfectly.

[hotsaucenchickin]

Schellis thank you very much for pointing out the fact that Dunn is actually a very good player and that he would be much better if Griffey batted behind him. Where you were wrong was that Juan Castro and David Ross bat behind him. Probably ment way behind him. Usually Hamilton and Encarnacion bat behind Dunn.

Krivsky is not expecting anything for Dunn, he is only asking from people that want Dunn. Robinson Cano doesn't look like that much of a batting champ right now Dunn is batting .265 with 16 home runs and 42 ribbies. Cano is batting only .270 3 homers and 29 ribbies. If I were Krivksy I would be asking for more than just Cano.

On the Angels trade that does seem like a heck of a lot of players for Dunn. Maybe just Santana and Wood or Kendrick.

Dunn is worth more than you think and his defense is improving. He hasn't been given that much of a shot at first base yet but he may be much more natural there.

[redsrcool]

actually, Schellis is right. At one point in the year, Adam Dunn was batting 6th, with the SS and David Ross behind him. Castro was in at the time because Alex Gonzalez was injured. I believe that that was one of his slumps.

[Ripwa]

I am no prospect expert but Joba isn't exactly projected to be an ace. As far as i know his ceiling is a front of the rotation,2 or 3, but mroe likely a 4. I have always been the impression that Kennedy and Betances are better prospects. If they could do a straight up trade Dunn For Chamberlain and they pass i think they are crazy. They have such good young pitching, losing one wont hurt.

[Kyle]

Ripwa I believe you are a little confused. Chamberlain is projected to be a 2, he throws 95-97 with a very good slider. On the other hand Kennedy is probably a #4 at best. Betances has a higher ceiling but he is only 18 and is only gonna pitch short season this year. Getting Chamberlain for Dunn would be a steal, and if the Yanks make that trade I will be pretty upset.

[darkstar1661]

You know, what about the M's? They are loaded with 1B/DH types, but if the trade included one of them going to Cin then it might work...

What we know is the Reds somehow feel like they are never really out of the race (& in that divison can you blame them) and Sea has a GM to pull off just as dumb of trades with their false hope. We also see the M's are somehow only 5 out in the ALW and 2 in the WC race so they might be willing to jump if a deal is reached before they start to fall.

They could maybe send Broussard or Guillen in the return which would minimize the loss Cincy takes at the plate a little but and offer up some pitching prospects from the high minors as Seatle is one of the few teams not needing arms for their pen right now. Cincy would then be getting something in the form of arms and ML offense, which in their park a guy with some power like Benny could end up helping.

It would also be a slap in the face to Ana and Oak if they are really thinking about Dunn ~ which I know Sea would be happy to provide.

What do you all think?

[Ripwa]

A #2? Hmm, i can't say i understand that. His numbers at Nebraska last season were "eh" at best. Looking at the stats Kennedy is vastly superior this season. Besides his first start at Trenton he has been absolutely filthy. Not to mention the fact that Kennedy was drafted ahead of Joba last year. I think people don't give Kennedy his credit because he isn't a "high ceiling" guy and give Chamberlain too much credit for that dreaded word "potential". I have never seen either pitch live, but from what i have seen and from the stats i'm looking at, Kennedy has a much greater chance of succeeding.

[jza1218]

I still don't understand this love for Robinson Cano. He's a player who's worth is predicated on his batting average. You'd be lucky to get 15 walks out of him (as the Yankees were last year).

He doesn't provide anything extraordinary, doesn't hit for power and doesn't have speed.

He's just Jorge Cantu minus the power but with a better glove.

[scatterbrian]

The Angels turned down Kendrick for Dunn, so they probably won't do it for Wood, let alone Santana + Kendrick/Wood. Plus, the Angels will be getting Rivera back mid-July supposedly, which further merks their DH/OF situation, and Kotchman's not going anywhere. The Angels need a 3B, if anything. Not a good fit.

The A's make a little more sense, but it would also make them pretty left-handed at LF/1B/DH throughout the roster. Maybe if Dan Johnson is part of the deal, or a separate one the gets a piece for Dunn.

Minnesota works, but they'd be better off fixing the left side of their infield.

Detroit makes the most sense. Ditch Casey at first, plug in Dunn between Ordonez and Sheffield.

[DMONEY]

Ripwa, you are so wrong it's laughable. Joba is a potential number 1. Should be top 5 pitching prospect by end of the year. He's just filthy. And Kennedy has by no means been vastly superior. Chamberlain isn't potentially better than Kennedy, he just is. It's just wrong/

[nrmax88]

"He plays in our friendly GABP. Shoot even Phillips and Gonzo are on pace for around 30 HR's this year for crying out loud. I can not wait until he is shipped out."

I dont watch him enough to know about the complete player he is, but too fair, he doesnt hit many wall scrapers

[nrmax88]

"If he can somehow pry Santana & Aybar or Wood from the Angels for Dunn, he'd be doing just fine. Though, IMO, Santana and his problems with command/leaving the ball up would not bode well for him in Cincy's park."

Yeah, so if Santana wouldnt bode well then how would Krivsky be doing fine? Maybe he is asking for Cano because he doesnt want to trade Dunn and he is trying to make somebody overpay.

[Coltre Hughes]

A lot of people seem to be stuck in the knee-jerk "the Yanks farm system is crap"- mode. Hello? It's improved quite a bit and teams will dismiss their "unalluring names" at their own peril.

To the person compared Dunn's average and Cano's average and concluded that Dunn for Cano would be a steal for the Yanks, do I even have to tell you how stupid that is? Cano is a young cheap player Dunn is an old expensive(compared to Cano)player. Cano has the potential to improve, Dunn's probably played his best seasons already. Yes, Dunn helps an offense more overall than Cano, but there's are other factors to consider when thinking about a trade. On Chamberlain, why would anyone mention his college statistics when, A. we know he had issues in college that have been resolved(his weight being the major one) and B. we have actual pro stats to look at? A look at his pro stats so far show the stuff of an ace. Oh yeah, he also wears his hat bill straight, so there's another reason to love him. Listen, here's the deal, when the season is over, the dust settles and the lists come out, the Yankees, with Joba, will have the number one pitching prospect in the league for the second year in a row. Next year, Hughes will be the Lone Ranger and Joba will be his Tonto(sorry).

(Sometimes writers say things, usually negative, about the Yankees simply because they know it will get a response. I think this is the case here, with the blogger slighting Joba and the Yanks system[the ridiculous "unalluring names" comment]. For someone making a blog or writing a colunm, having people read and respond to what you write is the most important thing, it's how they keep score, never forget that; they want eyes and they don't care how they get them. You could say ten nice things about the Kansas City Royals and not get half the response you'd get from saying one negative thing about the Yankees. So don't take too much offense Yanks fans, he's just trying to get your goat.)

[Stephenk29]

Dunn for Cano is simply ridiculous. The Reds have Gonzalez and Phillips at short who are both having pretty darn good years. The Reds have the worst bullpen in the majors and only put out about 3 feasible starters. The Reds desperately need pitching and Krivsky has shown that he won't hesitate to make a deal. The fans of Cincinnati boo Dunn constantly but I don't put much weight into that. These are the same fans who booed Junior off the field because he got hurt again (after making a diving catch and separating his shoulder). I'm a season ticket holder and I'm ashamed of half the things our fans do, especially the fair weather ones. Dunn is hitting about .270 and is forth or so in NL home run ranks. His defense is embarrassing at times but I still don't won't to see a trade that settles for less than equal return. If nothing happens, I won't be all to disappointed.

[Not Joe Morgan]

"I still don't understand this love for Robinson Cano. He's a player who's worth is predicated on his batting average."

He led AL 2Bs in isoP last year. Not hitting a ton of HRs doesn't mean he has a hollow batting average; there's quite a bit of value in hitting 40 doubels. Or just ignore that in an attempt to make a point.

"You'd be lucky to get 15 walks out of him (as the Yankees were last year)."

Luckily for the Yankees, he has 13 this year. Strike two.

"He's just Jorge Cantu minus the power but with a better glove."

Or he's BJ Upton with better range but less power. Or Tadahito Iguchi with more power but without the ring. Or Jose Valentin with less experience and no mustache. Basically he's a 2B. Great work.

[schellis]

I have no clue why the Reds would want Cano when they already have a superior player in Phillips at the position.

As for Dunn being old and expensive, I'll give you expensive but he's definately not old, the guy is only 27 years old, and is actually less then 3 years older then that youngster Cano.

People think Dunn is over 30 primarily because of how long he's been in the majors.

[ianoconnor]

"Listen, here's the deal, when the season is over, the dust settles and the lists come out, the Yankees, with Joba, will have the number one pitching prospect in the league for the second year in a row."

Two years in a row? Homer Bailey was the top prospect this year.

[Not Joe Morgan]

Not according to BP, atleast for one. They had Bailey behind Gordon, Hughes and Young.

[ianoconnor]

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/news/top50/y2006_post.jsp?content=1

I guess it's a toss-up... I was going from this list.

[Stephenk29]

Yeah, Ive never seen Bailey rated above Hughes or any of the other two mentioned as well.