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« Carlos Guillen to Play 1B Next Season | Main | A.J. Pierzynski Extended Through 2010 »
It's been a slow Saturday in the rumor mill so as it grinds down, I thought I'd see where everyone would put Joba Chamberlain next season if you were the Yankees.
Experts and statisticians feel that Joba must be in the rotation because 180 innings of Joba next year is more valuable than around 60. Frank Neville for The Sporting News thinks "health permitting, [Joba] can be a 20-game winner and rack up 200-plus strikeouts a year." Now wait, where have we heard that argument before? Ah yes, with Jonathan Papelbon.
Papelbon has become the most dominant closer in the majors with a 13.3 k/9 and I wonder if everyone still feels that 180-200 "starter" innings are as valuable to the Sox as his 56.1 "closer" innings have been. Nobody seems to be suggesting otherwise! Most if not all projections have Papelbon slated to close in '08, not start, and they're probably right. With the emergence of Clay Buchholz, the Sox have remained mum. And fans/reporters don't seem to bring it up as if Papelbon might overhear and remember that he actually once wanted to start. Well that story has come full circle and Paps wants to close now. Chamberlain, meanwhile, seems to be running the same hamster wheel with one major difference: the Yankees actually have a closer.
It's an interesting conundrum. In a way, Mariano Rivera is the reason to put him in the rotation while on the other hand Mariano Rivera is the reason to continue his development in relief. The presence of Rivera provides reasoning to both keep him in the bullpen to be his successor or move him out because, hey, they already have Rivera. There's an obvious divide in thought here.
I'm of the belief that if Todd Jones can close, Rivera is not done. Therefore Rivera, Luis Vizcaino, and Edwar Ramirez (in due time) plus one or two more effective relievers (and specialists, etc) would be solid for 2008. And I think everyone would be impressed by a sudden rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, and Joba the Starter.
Posted by: Nat Boyle
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Papelbon actually wants to close, SI.com put up an article detailing it. That sun-times article is over a year old.
He became the closer in spring, because he wanted to, HE went up to Tito and said he wanted to close.
Papelbon is the RS closer pretty much from now on. He said he wanted to start last year basically because he knew that was what he was going to do after the shoulder thing.
Joba will start, and while being a RS fan, It seems the smart idea, it isn't quite the same as Papelbon, Yankees have a closer in Rivera (he is basically signed next season, we all know he will be), so the Yankees just need to find someone who can set him up.
Pettitte, Wang, Hughes, Joba and Kennedy could be great.
Posted by: quintjs | September 29, 2007 at 05:09 PM
Get rid of Mo and make Joba the closer. His slider is pretty much untouchable and plus the Yankees can just go sign some washed up starting pitcher to fill in his spot.
Posted by: Barroid_Bonds | September 29, 2007 at 05:09 PM
I'm sorry just my opinion here..
J.J. Putz it's the must dominant closer in baseball, no matter what Espn and Fox try to tell you.
Posted by: pedrolourencosta | September 29, 2007 at 05:11 PM
J.J. Putz has been great this year, but I wouldn't say he is the most dominant closer in all of baseball still. He needs to show consistency now.
Posted by: Barroid_Bonds | September 29, 2007 at 05:19 PM
i know exactly what they should do with him...
send him to Minnesota for Santana.
Posted by: bozbot | September 29, 2007 at 05:36 PM
White Sox, Pierzynski agree to 2 year extension through 2010.
http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070929&content_id=2239176&vkey=news_cws&fext=.jsp&c_id=cws
Posted by: buehrlebro | September 29, 2007 at 05:39 PM
Thats one heck of a young starting rotation the Yanks can have. Quite Scary with that offense.
Posted by: Ralphy | September 29, 2007 at 05:53 PM
Tons can go wrong by that logic. Remember, you have three young pitchers and an aging one. Plus, Moose fits nowhere into this. He won't just retire because he's blocking a youngster.
I say let the last two spots be won out of ST with Kennedy, Hughes and Joba. Maybe keep Joba as a reliever- I mean, that's a 7 inning game most of the year for the Yankees if they have the lead. Plus, I just don't think having three rookies in a rotation is smart. Injury, late season fatigue, or just straight up suck can happen. Luckily, the Yanks have fallbacks.
Posted by: buehrlebro | September 29, 2007 at 05:59 PM
Petite
Wang
Hughes
Chamberlain
Kennedy
That rotation gives any Yankee fan a warm, tingly feeling.
I personally want Mariano back in 2008 and 2009. Mo has said he wants to pitch in the new Yankee Stadium.
He has earned that much.
The Yankees have many guys for the bullpen, not the least of which are Ohlendorf, J. Brent Cox and even Humberto Sanchez.
Posted by: lekman | September 29, 2007 at 06:23 PM
Rivera is a free agent. Everyone has him re-signing with the Yankees, but I can't imagine him taking anything under 4 years...which he'd get from somebody.....Are the Yanks prepared to do that with Joba sitting there???? Or would Rivera be willing to sign for just 3 years to stay in NY?????
Posted by: snowmanny | September 29, 2007 at 06:24 PM
Let us also remember one thing.
Paplebon was a closer in college. The Red Sox tried grooming him as a starter in their farm.
Chamberlain was a dominate starter throughout college.
He does not need to be groomed into a starter.
The guy has 4 dominating pitches, we've only seen 2 of them.
Posted by: lekman | September 29, 2007 at 06:25 PM
It's a tough call. A 6 inning game is a valuable thing. Then again, so is a starter of Joba's caliber.
A 6-man rotation is actually a possibility. It would limit the young guys' innings and Pettitte and Mussina would benefit from the extra rest. About the only one it wouldn't help would be Wang. And of course there will be injuries, so then they'd just shift up to a 5-man rotation.
I believe the Yankee pen will be very good even without Joba. Ohlendorf is really flying under the radar but since his move to the pen he's been throwing in the mid to high 90s (up from 92), and his slider almost makes him look like Joba-light. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him be the #1 setup man next year.
Vizcaino is solid, and as much as hurts me to say it, Farnsworth might have figured it out. He just started pitching from the windup and has been absolutely dominant. Who knows...
Anyway, the biggest problem with Joba as a starter is limiting his innings. As such, starting the season in the pen, then moving to the rotation might be best. But you could say the same thing about Hughes and Kennedy as well.
Anyway, it's a good problem to have.
Posted by: bobo | September 29, 2007 at 07:43 PM
Joba only made a few AAA starts this year before they moved him to the bullpen. As dominant as he's been as a reliever, he might need more time to groove into starting on the major league level. But maybe not. I think he could be more valuable as a starter since he's been dominant as such everywhere he's pitched. Either way, spring training will be interesting.
Posted by: johnflaherty | September 29, 2007 at 08:40 PM
The White Sox are a joke.
"Florida owner Jeffrey Loria said nothing will change "in the structure and day-to-day operations of the Marlins front office," "
Beinfest is promoted to president, Michael Hill named general manager.
I really want to see Joba get a couple starts in the ML, cause and chalk this up to hater/homerism if you want but out of 5 times I saw him pitch his slider wasn't thrown for strikes, and his fastball while 8 billion miles an hour is straight as a bullet. 2nd or 3rd time through an order and that is going to get solved, he will be a sick reliever if they keep him in that role.
"And fans/reporters don't seem to bring it up as if Papelbon might overhear and remember that he actually wants to start."
Its amusing that Papelbon is actually more ditzy or "Manny like" than Manny is.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | September 29, 2007 at 08:50 PM
"The guy has 4 dominating pitches, we've only seen 2 of them."
ehhhhh.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | September 29, 2007 at 08:51 PM
I really want to know what all these 4 "dominating" pitches are.
1.Fastball
2.Slider
3.SLUTTER ?!?!?!
4.GYRO ?!?!?!
Posted by: Barroid_Bonds | September 29, 2007 at 09:04 PM
"ehhhhh"
I'm with you here...how do you know they're "dominating" if you've never seen them?
Pitchers like Joba are better in roles where they can go all out, not that he can't be a serviceable starter.
Posted by: buehrlebro | September 29, 2007 at 09:04 PM
buerhlebro: "Moose fits nowhere into this." - I don't expect him to retire, but I do see him as expendable at this point.
I agree with you on being too heavy in young pitchers is a bad way for the Yanks specifically to begin a season. Perhaps Moose keeps a spot warm until next July? Hughes and Kennedy already gives them a better chance to win. Joba, who knows. But hence the post!
Posted by: Nat Boyle | September 29, 2007 at 09:11 PM
Joba is certainly more valuable as a starter than a reliever. I just wouldn't count on a 20 win season from him. I remember the same hype with Hughes at the beginning of the year. How did that pan out?
Joba and Hughes should both be great pitchers. Just don't count on them too much this early. Even great pitchers need some time to become dominant.
Posted by: bjsguess | September 29, 2007 at 09:29 PM
Lekman is right; Joba throws a major-league quality change-up and curveball. I don't think he's thrown the change-up in the majors(at least, not much), although you'll occasionally see him mix in the curveball early in a count. They're not dominating pitches in the way his slider and fastball are, but the change-up is average and the curveball's above-average.
This is what sets him apart from Papelbon; while Paps is certainly a great closer, he doesn't have the third or fourth pitch that you need to get through a lineup more than once or twice. Joba does, and it's a waste to not use that rare talent.
Lekman also hits on one of the two guys that really will be the next closer for the Yanks: Humberto Sanchez. Sanchez doesn't have the repertoire that Joba has, but he can throw it fast and well for short spurts, and that's what you need in a closer. (The other possibility is K-Rod, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it next season.) Ohlendorf's possible, too, as is Whelan, but I think the most likely guy in the system is Humberto.
Posted by: pdano | September 29, 2007 at 09:34 PM
Joba seems to have a great fastball and a good slider, he threw a couple nice curveballs late in the season and I can see him be a pretty good starter with those 3 pitches. You can probably teach changeup eventually, that's a learnable pitch with experience.
Is it me or does Hughes lack a 3rd pitch right now? Maybe it is the injury but he seems to be fastball/curveball right now with a changeup that didn't seem very good. He seems better as a reliever at this point, though maybe when he fully recovers, he can be a good starter.
You can say Mussina is expendable but he's owed so much money, you can't just DFA him, yet his stuff isn't suited for bullpen work either. I think they'll give him a spot in the rotation and try to keep the innings down for the young guys.
Posted by: zs190 | September 29, 2007 at 09:36 PM
Also: I wouldn't be shocked if the rotation next year starts out as Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Hughes, Kennedy, while Joba gets a little more practice with his off-speed stuff in AAA and stretches his arm back out a bit. Then he comes up in May, and either he takes over for an injured rotation member or the Yanks trade Mussina to an NL team. It makes him not such a great fantasy guy, but it might be best for the Yanks.
Posted by: pdano | September 29, 2007 at 09:37 PM
Sanchez is coming off TJ surgery and he wasn't ready for major even before that, I think they'll keep him in AAA next year.
Posted by: zs190 | September 29, 2007 at 09:38 PM
I'm not really buying Ohlendorf as a viable late inning guy either. He's always had control issues, Kyle Farnsworth and Brian Bruney can both throw hard, but both have bad control, and Joe just doesn't trust either of them in the late innings, I think Ohlendorf is just going to be mop up/middle relief next season if he makes the roster at all.
Posted by: zs190 | September 29, 2007 at 09:47 PM
"Is it me or does Hughes lack a 3rd pitch right now? "
and a quality fastball. Just disregard this season for him. He'll come out next season as dominant as he would've been pre-ham string injury. He's the real deal. I can't wait to see some Hughes/Buchholz matchups for the next 5-6 years.
Humberto Sanchez is going to be a bust, maybe a fringe 7th inning guy, he sucks.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | September 29, 2007 at 10:14 PM
After the Yankees drafted Hughes out of high school, they told him to stop throwing his slider to protect his arm. This year he was supposed to start throwing it again at AAA, but due to how quickly he got called up he didn't get to work on it much.
In his first two starts (pre injury) his fastball had more speed, and his curveball looked rather nasty (especially against Texas).
On the plus side, this month he's 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA, despite the weaker stuff. How many 21 years olds can compensate that well when pitching below full strength?
Posted by: yanksfan | September 29, 2007 at 11:32 PM
Yes make Joba a starter. Maybe he can duplicate Hughes' stellar season.
Posted by: SierraM | September 29, 2007 at 11:57 PM
Yes make Joba a starter. Maybe he can duplicate Hughes' stellar season.
Posted by: SierraM | September 29, 2007 at 11:58 PM
Edwar will be great out of the pen soon.. love his change
Posted by: TheHall | September 30, 2007 at 01:21 AM
I don't think you can compare Ohlendorf the starter's numbers to those of Ohlendorf the reliever.
All I know is I've seen most of the innings he's thrown for the Yankees this year, and he's been borderline dominant. I keep saying Joba-light because that's what it's like: Great fastball with movement (but it's 94-97 instead of 98-100), and a great slider (but it's 85-87 instead of 89-91, with a bit less break). But he's made some hitters look absolutely foolish.
Of course it's a super small sample size, but I haven't seen any reason to worry about his control. I believe he's walked 1 in 7 innings, and he seems to be working consistently ahead in the count (if he wasn't, he wouldn't be getting as many strikeout on sliders in the dirt).
I think that today I would rather see him come into a close game than anyone other than Joba or Mo.
Posted by: bobo | September 30, 2007 at 02:11 AM
"Edwar will be great out of the pen soon.. love his change"
I like koolaid too, but I prefer grape.
"All I know is I've seen most of the innings he's thrown for the Yankees this year, and he's been borderline dominant."
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=ohlenro01&t=p&year=2007
3 hits 1 walk in 4 and 2/3 with 8k. If only there were some sort of acronym to use that could point out how retarded/irrelevant this was. If it was alliteration that would be cool too. Though your ability to watch most of 4 and 2/3 innings is pretty special.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | September 30, 2007 at 03:39 AM
I'm actually a Yankees fan and even I don't feel very good about prospects for Edwar Ramirez, realistically.
He has a great changeup but he can't dominate with just it like Rivera's cutter. He has a below average fastball around 89-91 and nothing else really, can't throw the fastball for strike without absolutely getting pounded yet he has to throw the fastball to keep people from locking in on changeup so he nibbles on corners, resulting in a bunch of walks but also tons of strikeouts with his changeup, I think he's going to be mediocore unless he find another pitch or improve his fastball.
Posted by: zs190 | September 30, 2007 at 06:29 AM
Joba should be in the rotation, IMO. The Yankees need him and the other youngsters. Given how stubborn Mussina is, the Yankees should go with a 6 man rotation because the youngsters will be on innings capped.
Edwar is going to be good. This is first full season and he dominated at times and obviously struggle other times. He should get a chance next year.
The Yankees should sign Kerry Wood. It's a good risk, IMO, that might actually work out. Yes, we have Sanchez, Melancon, Garcia, JB Cox and other guys returning from TJ surgery. I don't think they'll be able to contribute out the gates next season so why not sign a guy that actually be dominating?!
Posted by: E-ROC | September 30, 2007 at 09:11 AM
Reading these comments, I again don't see anyone addressing the two decisions that need to be made before figuring out what to do with Joba.
#1) What about the OTHER starters? Wang we know is one. Is Pettite picking up his option? Are Kennedy or Hughes definites for the rotation? Is Clemens gone for good? What about Mussina, who has a year left on his contract and a no-trade that he's VERY unlikely to waive (given that he wouldn't even talk to anyone but the Yankees before signing his deal)?
I don't know if the Yankeees already HAVE 5 starters, or NEED 1 or 2>
2) How many years are the Yankees willing to give Rivera? I see Yankee fans talking about giving him a 2-year deal as some sort of a gift. This guy is a premium free-agent who will be getting 4-year offers. Furthermore, Cashman loves his draft picks (for good reason)and probably wouldn't be heartbroken to see Mo go if it meant a couple more Chamberlains and Hughes were there for the taking in the draft. But then you need a closer.
Posted by: snowmanny | September 30, 2007 at 11:02 AM
Snowmanny--Clemens isn't coming back. The rotation will be healthy next year, at least in the beginning. Clemens was an emergency signing that was needed. Cashman might force Mussina out the door or make him a long reliever. That would put Joba and Kennedy in the rotation. Hughes could start the year in AAA because of the injuries he has had this season.
The Yankees will give him two guaranteed years with an option for the third. The Yankees have tons of relievers. There has to be a gem somewhere in there. That can't all be garbage. The Yankees can always sign a guy like Kerry Wood or trade for someone if their talented minor league relievers don't pan out
Posted by: E-ROC | September 30, 2007 at 11:32 AM
E-ROC ... where was the gem in the bullpen this year? They had lots of arms but really no one that would excite you outside of Rivera (and of course, Chamberlin in the past month).
I'm not a big fan of the theory that if you have enough arms someone will emerge. You need quality not quantity. I just don't see that quality aspect right now. I'll bet you anything that the playoffs will prove my point. The Yankees will lose games because of their bullpen.
Posted by: bjsguess | September 30, 2007 at 12:47 PM
bjsguess--The gems (quality) were Chamberlain, Ramirez before the struggles, and now Ohlendorf. Joba needs to be in the rotation. He has four dominate pitches and has the potential to be an ace. That's worth more than one or two innings. Pettite isn't getting any younger, neither is Mussina and Clemens, who might actually retire after this season. Mussina sucks terribly. He can't beat good teams. It's a fact. The arms that are in the minors are very good. We'll find out just how good next year. There are a ton of them and there has to be at least a couple of them who can pitch. They may not be Joba dominate, but if they can get outs, that would be gladly taken. There is a lot of quality in that quantity.
Posted by: E-ROC | October 01, 2007 at 01:12 AM