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Rumors and Questions

If Cubs make the playoffs, they will be glad not to see the Marlins in the postseason.  After last night's defeat, the Cubs haven't beaten the Fish since April... of 2006.

Lots of buzz today, so here are some Rumors and Questions on the day:

  • Florida Marlins Fans, it may be disheartening for you, both of you, to know that David Hyde (with some help from Bill Murray) believes as though either Miguel Cabrera or Dontrelle Willis will indeed be dealt this offseason.  Tim crunched the numbers and thinks they should shed Willis' contract.  If I had to choose, I'd agree with Mr. Hyde (not Dr. Jekyll) and wave goodbye to Miggy before the D-Train rolls out.  Cabrera is indisputably elite and could net a Hanley Ramirez or two.  Meanwhile, Dontrelle's value is at an all time low.  Who would you deal?
  • Speaking of former Marlins, Buster Olney thinks the Tigers will re-sign Todd Jones.  When asked who will close for the Tigers next year, Manager Jim Leyland responded with a definitive "don't know".  Well, maybe he's getting forgetful in his old age, but we all know who: Joel Zumaya.  But is he ready?  Chris McKosky of the Detroit News isn't sure.  What do you think?  If only he could lay off that Guitar Hero...
  • The Rangers and the Twins have each expressed interest in both Torii Hunter and, who else, Barry Bonds.  Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire weighs in positively on Bonds, while Joe Christensen says chances are slim but don't rule it out.  Shooter Charley Walters says the Twins will try to re-sign Hunter.  But Hunter is from outside Arlington, Texas and when asked if he's thought a little about going home, he told reporters "I haven't thought about it a little bit.  I've thought about it a lot a bit."  Meanwhile, the Rangers players say "Thumbs up!" to Bonds.  I think the Rangers are a natural fit for both of these vets.
  • Also, Ken Rosenthal's latest video on Foxsports.com breaks down the fates of Managers-Across-The-League.  Interestingly, he begins by praising Joe Torre for doing maybe his best job ever, and then notes how if the Yankees stumble in the postseason he might not be back...

Posted by: Nat Boyle


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Well yeah, the Joe Torre situation he writes about is dealing with his personal opinion against that of George's perception.

Sure he feels Torre has done a great job managing this mess but if he loses in the postseason, George might fire him anyway. I think that's basically what he's trying to convey. It makes sense.

Marlins could still wait until next off season to trade Miggy. While I think they could wait to deal Dontrelle at the trading deadline next year, where then there will be a huge push for a SP's and maybe he could bring his stock back up. I wish the Marlins could just spending money now though because with a few veterans its a playoff team and they need to bring back Joe Girardi he was a really great manager his 1st year while Fredi hasn't shown me anything great.

If Miggy gets traded, it'll be to the Red Sox. The match up there makes too much sense.

-They have history with making a big trade in the Beckett-Hanley deal.
-The Red Sox have a hole at 3B in '08.
-If they lock Miggy up long term, by the time he becomes a black hole in the field, he can take over for Papi as the DH.
-The Red Sox have 2 top prospects in Jacoby Ellsbury & Clay Buchholz that would fit perfectly into the Marlins long-term plans. Top it off with Craig Hansen and both teams become instantly better in '08.

As far as a 3B replacement, I can imagine the Marlins unloading both of their stars this off-season and Dontrelle could hopefully net them a solution at 3B and some relief help. The Padres match up well there with Headley & Meredith.

Why would Boston give up 3 top prospects to fill a 3B hole if they can resign Lowell or better yet Get Arod if he opts out?

I don't see Buchholz being dealt and after the way Ellsbury has played I don't see him going anywhere either.

Who knows, there is no doubt the sox would be interested if/when Miggy is available, and I believe he would move to 1b and youk to 3rd.

I like the sound of that Red Sox trade I just don't think they would add in Craig Hansen. The Padres or Dodgers seem very likely for Dontrelle. The Dodgers could offer Jonathan Meloan and Tony Abreu or Andy LaRoche for Willis. Maybe even the Rockies would get in on Willis. Garrick Atkins and Ubaldo Jimenez for Willis. But for either of those trades to happen Miggy has to get traded first.

Speaking of the Dodgers, what about a blockbuster with both Cabrera and Willis going to LA? That could solve the Dodgers' need for a big bat in the middle of their lineup and give them a much better option than counting Schmidt and/or Wolf coming back healthy. They also seem to be souring on Loaiza, so that definitely opens up a rotation spot. If they offered up LaRoche, Kershaw, Kemp, and another couple low-level arms, it might be enough to get Florida to give those guys up.

But the Fish are probably too dumb to make that bold of a move, and I'm not sure Colletti could pull off something that good for LA. He'd probably argue Cabrera and Willis aren't veteran enough, since he seems intent on turning the Dodgers into the Giants.

Kinda way off topic here, but does anyone happen to know a site for like projected 2008 salaries, contract information, free agent list, etc.?

The Marlins will be even more of a joke if they deal Cabrera. But I'd expect the Dodgers to make a huge play for him. They're the team with a hole at 3B, quality prospects, and a willingness to deal the prospects.

The Redsox will trade Crisp to make room for Ellsbury. I don't expect them to make a serious play for Cabrera.

I could definitely see the Red Sox getting in on Cabrera if and when he becomes available, if for no other reason than to keep him away from the Yankees.

No way they'd give up BOTH Buchholz and Ellsbury though, maybe one or the other but not both.

I could see a package of Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden, Jed Lowrie, perhaps one of the aforementioned, and a few other prospects.

Kinda way off topic here, but does anyone happen to know a site for like projected 2008 salaries, contract information, free agent list, etc.?

You can use http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/
They have everything for this year, but if you look at players signed to longer term deals the information is still there.

Red Sox fans are the best.

They wouldn't trade two young prospects for a top 5 player. Especially when one of those players is a 4th outfielder as it stands today.

Seriously, the Marlins should definitely move both this off-season. This will maximize their return as teams won't be renting the players for just a year. The Marlins won't compete next year regardless so why not stock up on cheap talent, save $20m and get ready for 09?

There's no way anyone's getting Cabrera via trade without gutting their farm. I don't think any team will be willing to pay that high of a ransom for one player.

As for moving both Willis and Cabrera in the same deal...it would take the Futures Game starting roster to get it done.

I actually think that the Yankees are better suited to getting Cabrera.

IMO, if Boston doesn't win the ARod bidding wars, then they will have the inside track on signing Lowell.

Then the Yankees will be hard-pressed to replace ARod's right-handed power bat in the line-up and will up the bidding to get Cabrera.

Maybe Joba, Melky and Horne?

How about Joba, Melky, and Hughes for starters. We're talking potential A-Rod-like production here, for a fraction of the cost, and in a model that's 9 years newer.

Buchholz, Masterson, Crisp, Kottoras(sp)

First of all, JMC, valid question, but have some respect for you self and do not say "like" before the meat of your question.
Next, I could see the Marlins attempting to trade Miggy, he is as good of a offensive player as I've seen in a long time. They should be able to net a ransom, and if they do not, should hold out. I feel they would be better off waiting until the deadline this summer to try to move Willis, increase his value a little bit, but he does have a good track record, and starting pitching is a valuable commodity, so if someone is willing to give up the farm, the could pull the trigger. But then again, I am a Pirates fan, and we just have an awesome track record with making moves, so what the hell do I know. Go Bucs, good luck to our new GM, hopefully he will be like the Fins and gut our roster and get a few players like Hanley. We'll see, I'm just saying what I'd do, but like I said, I'm a Bucco fan, so after 15 straight losing seasons, I know nothing.

i dont know how good ellsbury is but i wouldnt want to give up a guy that threw a no-hitter in his second major league start. I know personally i wouldnt want the royals giving up butler and gordon for cabrera- thats a very steep price albeit miggy is great.

Marlins won't want Crisp in any type of deal or any other player that has like 3 or more years of experience in the majors.

I agree with the thoughts on holding out with crossed fingers that Willis will improve and then dumping him at the deadline for a bigger bounty. Although for some reason Willis's trade value has always been about double what his contribution value is so I'd probably listen to offers this offseason as well. There are some really dumb GM's out there with nice farms.

If I were FL I'd be trying to lock Miggy up now and building the franchise around him. They will never be able to afford another Miggy through FA or a trade, so this is their one and only chance at a player like this unless they draft another. He is all that.

I too would like Florida to lock up Miggy - just don't think it's going to work. He is a $20m/year player once he hits FA. You just can't have 1/2 or 2/3's of your salary going to a single player.

Buchholz has potential to be great. He did throw a no-hitter in his 2nd start. Some other names that had similar performance:

Bobo Holloman - no hitter in his 1st start. Ended up going 3-7 that year and never pitched again.

Wilson Alvarez - no hitter in his 2nd start. Ended with a 102-92 and a 3.96 ERA.

Bud Smith - no hitter in his rookie year. Ended up going to the minors in his 2nd season - never made it back to the bigs.

I could go on and on ... the point is that throwing a no-hitter is no guarantee for success. There is a long history of young, talented pitchers who either develop arm troubles or just don't pan out.

"The Red Sox have 2 top prospects in Jacoby Ellsbury & Clay Buchholz that would fit perfectly into the Marlins long-term plans. Top it off with Craig Hansen and both teams become instantly better in '08."

Neither of them are being moved for any reason.

"Especially when one of those players is a 4th outfielder as it stands today."

Thats depth chart wise, not talent wise. This will be resolved this off season.

" Garrick Atkins and Ubaldo Jimenez for Willis."

Why would the Rockies ever make that tradein a million years. Jiminez has huge upside and can pitch in Colorado, Atkins is coming off his second consecutive 25/100 year. I wouldnt even trade one of those guys let alone both of them for Willis. Maybe a year ago, but not now. Although I still believe Willis can turn it around with the right change of scenery, teams just arent going to give up top run producing 3B under their control, and young cheap pitching with huge upside for a guy with a 5.20 era and a 1.60 whip, and a 144/88 K/BB. They would be giving up more talent, the better contracts, and more service time. It just doesnt make sense.

I mean less service time. Giving up a lot more years of control.

" I know personally i wouldnt want the royals giving up butler and gordon for cabrera"

And you say that I over value prospects. Thats too funny.

While I dont agree with the proposed trade of Ells+Clay, I do think Boston is a perfect fit for Miggy!

Lets say ARod stays in NY. The best player isnt an option anymore but Bostons best player isnt what he used to be and will need to be replaced soon. Miggy comes in for 08 as a counteraction to NY keeping ARod (instead of the Sox getting him) and after the year he can take over for Manny in LF if needed.

That being said, the Dodgers are also a very good fit and the Yankees will probably push for him if they lose ARod…

"And you say that I over value prospects. Thats too funny."

Ten years or whatever of Gordon and Butler, for two years of Cabrera.

Who accused you of overvaluing prospects?

"I could go on and on ... the point is that throwing a no-hitter is no guarantee for success. There is a long history of young, talented pitchers who either develop arm troubles or just don't pan out."
Being a red sox fan,I notice the sox are taking young pitching and player devlopment very seriously. I trust theo, and their medical staff to protect their young arms. There is a chance buccholz won't pan out but from everything I am reading and seeing has been all positive.

The one team I could see paying the ransom for Cabrera (or both) is the Dodgers. Red Sox would rather re-sign Lowell and keep Ellsbury and Bucholtz, Angels are too protective of their prospects (though Brandon Wood, Joe Saunders, and another prospect might get it done), most other teams don't have the right prospect mix, etc. Dodgers would probably be willing (if they can't get Johan from the Twins) to give up their top prospects for Cabrera and Willis (Kemp, Kershaw, Laroche and change).

Actually Cleveland will probably be in the mix too, they have been looking for a big bat and esp a RH one while having 3B &/or LF as the possibilities. A deal would probably see Marte (instant replacement for Cabrera who Fla would prob like), Ben Francisco (player they have liked for years who would play CF) and a Top-Prospect or two…

I see the Tribe heavily into the Bay and Miggy situation ~ teams match up well if they can work something out…

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