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By Tim Dierkes [November 5, 2007 at 3:36pm CST]
SI.com's Jon Heyman has a new column up. Let's discuss.
- Alex Rodriguez's five possible destinations: Angels, Red Sox, Mets, Giants, Dodgers. That sounds about right. Heyman notes that the Dodgers do not have an advantage because of Joe Torre; he says star players don't consider managers as a criteria when deciding where to sign.
- Though not mentioned as one of A-Rod's five potential landing spots, Heyman says the buzz is growing that Mike Ilitch and the Tigers could go after him.
- Heyman says the Rockies will hang on to Garrett Atkins and follow through with the plan to try Ian Stewart at second base. That could mean the end of Kaz Matsui in Colorado.
- How about Eric Gagne to the Tigers? If they are interested, that bodes well for me getting at least 1 of 50 right.
- Johnny Damon for Joe Crede first mentioned in the Chicago Tribune??!! That trade speculation, sir, is MLBTR's baby. Anyway, Heyman's source thinks the Yankees could do better for Damon.
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Lol, Tim, I don't really like Crede. How about Scott Rolen? He has an injury history but Yanks are one of the few teams that can afford to take a gamble with his contract. When healthy, he's a quality player both offensively and defensively.
I was reading the article linked here earlier where the Cardinals GM admitted there is a problem between La Russa and Rolen that might not be able to be resolved internally.
Posted by: zs190 | November 05, 2007 at 03:42 PM
You'd rather have Rolen and his contract than Crede? I dunno...maybe if he proved his health.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | November 05, 2007 at 03:44 PM
I don't see him going to the Mets or the Giants. And like Heyman I'm not so sure the Dodgers are the favorite to get Arod. Right now, my favorite for getting Arod is the Angels with Boston inching closer.
As for Atkins likely staying the Rockies, I think they should trade him. I mean look at all these good, young pitchers that are supposedly available via trade. Atkins a young pitcher like Morales and a mid level prospect should get them a nice front line starter like a Dan Haren.
Posted by: Bravesfan18 | November 05, 2007 at 03:50 PM
Except, you are going to have to give up something better than Damon for Rolen.
Cardinals have an outfield full with Rasmus on the way. Taking Crede is simply a salary dump to get rid of Damon. The Cardinals aren't looking to take on $26 M Damon has left for terrible OF play. They could pay Edmonds for another year and he'd probably be just as effective.
The whole point is if the Yankees find someone to take away Johnny Damon, they should jump at it, no matter who they get in return.
Posted by: HL | November 05, 2007 at 04:08 PM
And you also misread about the Rolen situation. While obviously something could happen and the situation not be resolved, Mo says the Cardinals are trying every avenue to resolve the issue internally.
You make it seem like they think it won't get fixed. They are taking the approach that it will get fixed but you also never know.
Posted by: HL | November 05, 2007 at 04:10 PM
Damon for Crede would be a steal for the Yankees. Damon is overpaid at 13 million/year for 2008 and 2009; Crede is in his arbitration years. He's not that great, but if the Yankees can dump Damon's contract, leaving the OF to Matsui, Cabrera and Abreu, they should jump at the opportunity. I'm assuming that it's the same fans who wanted A-Rod to leave who are now scoffing at this deal. Simply put, it would be a total fleecing by New York.
Posted by: John Peterson | November 05, 2007 at 04:15 PM
HL is right. Damon to STL makes no sense.
I'm not sure what the market should be for a guy like Rolen. He makes some serious cash that the Cards could spend elsewhere (starting pitching?). He would be a nice insurance policy for when the Betemit experiment fails miserably.
If you could get Rolen for some "B" level prospects then it might be worth the gamble.
They still need to move Damon though. I'm not sure what the market is for a DH who hits 8 HR's, can't steal bases any longer and who makes $13m/y over the next 2 years. Don't see a lot teams with that type of a need.
Posted by: bjsguess | November 05, 2007 at 04:47 PM
How about Kevin Kouzmanoff & Cla Meredith for Johnny Damon & $6mm?
Also, with all of the talk on A-Rod wanting to be in Boston, does anyone see an outside possibility of him taking less money to do so? A 7yr/$196mm deal would go a long way in proving A-Rod's desire to actually serve a team, as opposed to himself.
If the Red Sox found a way to unload Julio Lugo onto the White Sox, Cubs or Cardinals, they could really stick it to the Yankees by signing both A-Rod and Lowell.
Obviously, this would reak of an 'Evil Empire' but with the way Boston's front office is structuring themselves with their balance of creating an incredible farm and aggressive marketing strategies (going big for Dice-K), they're simply becoming a smart empire.
Keep in mind how cheap and effective their starting rotation can be next year with Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Buchholz & Wakefield. They can afford to go big on their offense with their young starting pitching.
Posted by: WestCoastBias | November 05, 2007 at 04:53 PM
I take back the Damon deal after seeing it in (virtual) print. I wouldn't mind sending 1 of those guys over, but not both.
Posted by: WestCoastBias | November 05, 2007 at 04:54 PM
Tim, dude, you run a great blog, so don't let these blokes run you out for batting .300 on predictions. I think most of your predictions seem reasonable.
Maybe you should offer some sort of a challenge or contest to your readers to come up with lists of 50 of their own... sort of FANTASY FREE AGENCY thing.
Posted by: IowaCubs | November 05, 2007 at 04:57 PM
I doubt the Dodgers can pay anything close to what A-Rod and Boras want. McCourt is seriously cash strapped, and can't give anything near $30 mil a year or a ten year contract. Besides Dodgers stadium is a pitcher's park, even still with all the changes done by McCourt and Co.
The Red Sox are going to have Youklis, Pedoria, Bucholz, and Lester becoming free agents one of these days and demanding more than the MLB minimum. They don't want a huge long term contract and find themselves in a situation they had for years with Manny Ramirez. If A-Rod goes for a $20mil/4 year deal, the Red Sox will bite, but not anything A-Rod and Boras want. If Lowell signs for the Yankees, then A-Rod will be lobbied heavily by the Red Sox, If Lowell signs, which looks at this moment not likely, A-Rod is left with the Yankees and the Angels. The Wild Card is Florida.
I think for A-Rod, one big draw is a hitter's friendly park like the Rangers' ballpark, Wrigley Field and Fenway..
Posted by: okojo | November 05, 2007 at 05:35 PM
I think you guys misconstrued what I was saying. I didn't say Damon for Rolen straight up like the proposed Crede deal.
What I was saying was that given the fact that the Cardinals might end up shopping Rolen(it's not a given or anything but it seems like it would be hard to resolve, feel free to disagree) that the Yanks might be better off trading for Rolen. Obviously health is a big concern, wouldn't trade for him if there are significant issues with his health. But if he's relatively healthy, I would rather have Rolen with his lousy contract than Crede.
Posted by: zs190 | November 05, 2007 at 05:51 PM
Dodger Stadium is not the pitcher's haven that it used to be. Check the stats...it has actually becoming increasingly hitter friendly. The reduction of foul ground naturally helps hitters, but the HR have also been on a consistent rise...which is strange b/c LA hasn't had much power (and has had a pretty good staff).
I think playing in a division w/ Petco and PacBell (in addition to Dodger stadium) would be more of a concern.
Also, it's strange that people have just accepted that McCourt doesn't have any money despite no real evidence. The franchise has appreciated nearly $300 million since his acquisition (less than 4 years). In addition, the team sold 3.8 million tix last year. Just b/c you heard someone said McCourt is cash-strapped doesn't make it true. Maybe it is...but the people spouting it really have no clue either way.
Posted by: kbrooks2LA | November 05, 2007 at 06:18 PM
Any chance the yankees can talk Mussina into waiving his no trade clause? Mussina and betimit for Rolen would work for cards - Mussina might benefit from NL central and even get 1 more contract. Yankees have no plans for Moose so no loss for them. If Moose wants to pitch past this year I think he really needs to goto NL and hope for a jeff weaver like rebirth
Posted by: touchmymonkey | November 05, 2007 at 06:20 PM
If the Rockies don't want Atkins because of his subpar D, then why wouldn't they move him to 2nd and let Stweart go to third. Is Stewart good with the glove?
Posted by: StLknows | November 05, 2007 at 07:22 PM
You would think that alot of teams would be looking at A-rod first, then kicking the tires on Cabrera. As a red sox fan I can't see Cabrera before A-rod. Many see Cabrera signing around 20m a year (speculation on a trade and extend w/ buying out arb years) While A-rod, from what I read will go anywhere from ( 30m to 35m ) with many thinking 35m is a stretch and there is no garuntee of 30m+ even yet.
You go with a player who puts up constant numbers and is in great shape for at the moment about 10m differnce. You then keep your young studs and improve even further for what 10m?
I would think that a team like the Angels would be more inclined to come up with a package to get cabrera simply because it seems that cabrera is alot closer to Vlad money, and they have a few younger players already slated to start next year.
If i had to guess I am going to say the red sox end up with
A-rod.
Posted by: ryn519 | November 05, 2007 at 08:49 PM
I would also like to add the marlins as a dark horse. A-rod could cost the Marlins 25m in theory if they could get a one year contract. Moving Cabrera to not pay his Arb. while picking up A-rod and a few young MLB ready players of their choice, and you could see the Marlins contend for a wild card spot, get a new stadium and save the franchise from moving. The only problem is you need to trade Cabrera first and hastily I would imagine.
Posted by: ryn519 | November 05, 2007 at 08:57 PM
If you look at the Forbes list for baseball team valuation, McCourt has probably the highest debt to team value ratio of any club that is not building a stadium at this moment. He bought the Dodgers via loans, turned around and did another $250 million loan with Bank of America with Dodger Stadium as collateral. Fox took his Boston Waterfront property when McCourt couldn't find a junior partner after two years of his purchase. He doesn't have a cable network to bring in more revenue but a standard contract with K-Cal. All those loans are long term, and he pretty much paying millions upon millions in interest every year, let alone the loans, including one to MLB.
Attendance figures are well known to be manipulated by the ballclubs. Debt/value ratio is probably a better mark on the club's financial health...
McCourt needs to squeeze as much revenue out of club as possible to meet his loan obligations which is why parking went up to $15 dollars per game. The Dodgers make money but with a labor intensive business, they also have alot of overhead with small profit margins.
Posted by: okojo | November 05, 2007 at 10:43 PM
Damon stole 27 bases this year. He was caught 3 times, so lets put to bed this theory he cant steal bases anymore.
In 2003(in the second year of his contract with Boston coincidentally), Damon put up a line of .273/.345/.405, following up his 2002 line of .286/.356/.443.
In his second year as a Yankee, he put up a line of .270/.351/.396. Pretty similar to his 2003. In his first year as a Yankee, Damon posted a good line of .285/.359/.482.
Apart from his power, his first years with both the red sox and yankees were similar. Same with the second year with each of those teams, he seemed to fall off a little bit. Maybe both seasons partly because of injury, because Damon only played in 140 or so games in 03 if I remember. He did though, in 2004, bounce back from his bad 03 to a tune of .303/.380/.477.
Maybe it is some weird trend, maybe not, my point is, Damon is still a solid leadoff hitter. The Yankees have already lost A-Rod, possibly Pettitte, and may yet lose Mo and Posada. Why trade away your leadoff hitter on top of all of that without another guy to do fill his role? A leadoff guy is important, especially in the playoffs to get on and put pressure on the pitcher from the get go.
Maybe the guy just had a bad year because he was all banged up. Playing left should also be easier on him then playing centerfield.
Posted by: nrmax88 | November 05, 2007 at 11:16 PM
What about Damon and a prospect (Tyler Clippard?) for Tejada? Orioles could use a CF and the Yanks can move Tejada to third.
Posted by: grose976 | November 06, 2007 at 08:49 AM