Lowell Signs With Red Sox

Jones, why? he hates it here, he has said it before

If the deal is for 3/$36M, then the Red Sox are overpaying by a year. If it's for 3/$45M, then they're overpaying by a year and $9M.

I just can't find sound justification for upwards of $15M per on the basis of Lowell's 2007 season, even discounting the fact that he is highly unlikely to approach those numbers again.

Perhaps I just can't get used to the changing market, but I simply can't get excited about giving Graybeard more than two years.

"just can't find sound justification for upwards of $15M per on the basis of Lowell's 2007 season, even discounting the fact that he is highly unlikely to approach those numbers again."

Its not like its your money or there are salary cap implications...I agree two years would be ideal but a third year for a guy who just won the world series mvp, hit .324 and is invaluable in the club house is not a terrible thing. As much of an anomaly as his average would appear to be this past year, Lowell changed his approach at the plate and started to routinely hit to right field with two strikes instead of trying to pull the ball regardless of the count. Fenway is going to be prohibitively expensive for most people whether Lowell gets 15 mil or 12 mil. I get what you are saying in your post but I dont think it a third year is terrible and I have already been more or less priced out of Fenway with the exception of a game or two per year. I'm glad their will be a little more continutiy with this club then 2004.

Did you hear that Hunter is real interested in the Dodgers? Makes no sense for LA. Please dont do it, LA!

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2007/11/19/torii-hunter-update/

I'm hoping the Lowell rumors are true even if the money and years are fair since it would figure to take Boston out of the Teixiera sweepstakes next offseason.

Boston.com is saying that "chances are increasing rapidly":

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2007/11/any_lastminute.html

Signing Lowell is simply unbelievable. He can't walk, field, hit outside of Fenway or run, and we're signing him for $15m a year. We could have Lowrie, a better hitter with upside next year for 375k, but instead Theo throws away more money.

Lowell and Lugo on the left side of the diamond. Is that the worst MORP of any infield duo in history?

Theo makes yet another terrible move.

Try 3 years for $37.5, not even close to $15 per.

Oh and I hate all of those terrible moves Theo keeps on making that keep on winning us championships.

I agree 100% he just makes those awful moves. lol. i just wish people would open their eyes and see that Theo is actually a really good GM that might actually know what he is doing

punk, prove that theo's a good gm. How are Drew and Lugo doing?

And Lowrie is a much better solution that Lowell. Lowell will be our backup by the third year.

$15m a year for a sub-.800 OPS. I'm astonished.

Agreed. Lowell is better than any of the alternatives. While he isn't a superstar, he plays fantastic defense and produces well enough at the plate. This deal also frees the Red Sox to trade a center fielder as they see fit. They are not forced into dealing for a third baseman. They can trade Coco for a back up catcher or a reliever. Or they can deal Elsbury in a Santana package.

Jed Lowrie is not ready to produce at the ML level. I doubt he is ever a regular (league average) third baseman. The kid does not have enough pop for a corner position. Its middle infield or nothing for Lowrie. If he can stay on as a shortstop, his obp. will be valuable.

They won the world series in spite of this guys, not because of it. Correlation does not imply Causation.

I can't prove Lowrie will do better, but he was ripping up the minors and is just 23. If you trust PECOTA, their lines are almost the same next year, but Lowrie would be making $12m less, with upside.

So, we essentially gave up 2 first round picks and $13m a year for a mediocre 3B. And, in 2005 alone, we drafted Buchholz, Lowrie and Ellsbury, so chances are we would've replaced everyone in a potential Cabrera deal the same year.

We have 0 power coming for the future. I guess we're expecting Ortiz to hit like this until he's 40, because Theo can't get a power producer if it kills him.

"How are Drew and Lugo doing?"

Both players had off years; they were both adjusting to the switch to the AL. Both had significantly better second halfs and performed closer to what was expected of them.

Drew has 4 years left to his deal, and Lugo has 3. You can't judge the worth of a contract by 20% or 25% of its duration. In a couple of years is when we'll know if they were good deals or not.

"$15m a year for a sub-.800 OPS. I'm astonished."

Both those numbers are wrong. Lowell's getting $12.5m a year, and his 2007 OPS was .879. His career OPS is even .811.

Want to talk about extreme BABIP'S? Lowell's was exceptionally low in 2006 and exceptionally high in 2007; if it balances out, he'll be a solid-but-not-spectacular offensive 3B, and still one of the best defensively in the game. At least if you trust Pinto's PBR, which had him 6th for 2007, or The Hardball Times' RZR, which had him 3rd.

There's really no reason to expect a cliff dive in the next season or two. And there's also zero reason to think that Lowrie is ready to be a major-league 3B. He might have the bat for SS or 2B, but for 3B, he isn't there yet.

Bad move in that they're paying for 2007 but will likely get 2006.

Good move in that there really wasn't anyone else available, and the fans love him (but how much did they love him after 2006? how much love will go away after the performance with RISP doesn't continue?).

As a Yankee fan, I'm happy about this. If they had gone with Lowrie, the production wouldn't have been that much worse and they'd have an extra $36M over the next 3 years to throw at other players.

Anyway, this will look pretty bad in 2010, but then again, so will Rivera and Posada. Guess it's the price you pay to keep a guy who's well-liked at a position that would otherwise have a huge hole.

"Lowrie would have outhit him next year, without a doubt. The last deal I hated this much was Lugo's, and look how that turned out."

Lowrie hit .163 in the Arizona Fall League...to say he would without a doubt hit better then Lowell is just stupid. Lowrie hit 13 homeruns last year in more then 500 at bats between AA/AAA...not sure how you chastise Theo for not getting power and suggesting Lowrie as Lowell's replacement...also Lowrie has never played 3B and is marginally athletic enough for ss so he is not likely to be a defensive upgrade. Lowrie is ideally a 2b. Also Lowell has improved his approach at the plate and started using right field frequently last year instead of trying to pull everything...so while he may not hit .324 I would bet he hits close to .300.

"You're right, it is $12.5m a year. As for sub-800, if he ever hits over .800 again I'll be amazed. He's 34 now, can't hit on the road, and can't walk, so his fall is going to be 2005-ish. If we're lucky, he'll average .270/.320/.440 for the life of the deal, and that third year is going to be wretched."

Lowell's career averages are .282/.345/.472/.817 with 22 HR, 91 RBI, 75 Runs and 39 2B in 551 AB. In his eight full seasons his OPS only dipped below .814 twice. 2005 was the ABERRATION, not the norm.

He's also playing half his games in a park that is almost custom-made for his swing. He's gotten smarter about driving the ball the other way with two strikes. Hitting behind Papi and Manny, he sees a lot more good pitches.

Will he match 2007? No. Will he find a middle ground between 2006 ad 2007? There's no reason to think he won't. He's healthy, he's got advantages in Fenway he never had in other parks.

The Red Sox are now essentially back to the same team that won it all last year. Hopefully a full year of Clay and Ellsbury with some bouncebacks for Lugo, Drew, and Manny and a 2nd year uptick from Dice-K and they'll be favored for '08

"Also Lowell has improved his approach at the plate and started using right field frequently last year instead of trying to pull everything"

Um, what?

http://riveraveblues.com/2007/11/02/why-i-dont-sign-mike-lowell/

I picked a few other stadiums too, and can't find a single XBH to RF.

Too much money and too many years. However, the Sox like the Yankees can afford to over-pay and over-commit. There really wasn't a better option out there.

What's another $13m to Theo and company. Even if he tanks (which I don't think he will) the team can absorb the mistake.

I'll say it again - the line between the Yankees spending and the Red Sox spending is getting more blurred all of the time. Red Sox fans don't like to hear it but they have become the Evil Empire version 2.

"I don't get why people seem to think he'll be better than 2006. He was the exact same hitter last year."

You're saying that he was the same in 2007 as he was in 2006? You've seen the numbers, right?

I think the real difference was, in 2007 he learned to use Fenway Park to his advantage. He's still mostly a pull hitter, but he's got the strength and the swing to pummel the Monster. Who cares how he did it - he hit .373/.418/.575 at Fenway last year. In 2006 his numbers were a lot better at Fenway as well.

So last year, Lowell hit about to his career norms in away games, but found a huge advantage in his home games. Why would that stop? Is he suddenly going to change the approach that worked so well for him?

I do expect some dropoff since he did hit unusually well with RISP (.356/.419/.574). But I also don't see him going all the way back to his 2006 numbers (yes, that's the year I mean)... those were actually slightly below his career numbers. So I think it'll be somewhere in between... posibly a bit closer to the 2006 numbers, but I can still see him going .320/.390/.500 at Fenway.

Look, in the past few years I've been against signing Damon (worked out great), said we gave up way way too much for Beckett (no doubt there), said Coco wouldn't hit (right there, didn't expect the glove to be quite that good), and said Lugo would be an utter disaster (I predicted his .230 line in may/june). I also said "Okaji will be a cult hero."

This doesn't make any sense. It's shortsighted and sentimental, which a real FO should avoid. Lowell is not the solution for the Red Sox at this time. When you have our resources, you should build for the future instead of settling with what sorta worked in the past.

We are locked into mediocrity in RF, 3B, SS right now, and if we extend Varitek, at C too. We are the Red Sox, we can do better. nuf ced.

You can't call a signing shortsighted and sentimental and then turn around and say "We are the Red Sox, we can do better." Give me a convincing argument that there was a better option, because I haven't seen it yet.

The Red Sox considered Mike Lowell's market value, and decided that in today's market, he was worth roughly 3/36. According to Peter Gammons, both the Phillies and Dodgers were prepared to offer Lowell 4 years, but The Red Sox stuck to their assessment. And even though Lowell wanted that 4th year, he agreed in the end to pass it up to play for the Sox. He left at least $12m on the table.

So market value now indicates that the Sox got a deal. They also didn't give up anything in trade, and brought back someone who's loved by the fans and respected by the team. It's also perfectly reasonable to expect a fairly solid few years of offense (as I described in my post above).

In 2008, the Sox will get a slight downturn in performance from Lowell, and possibly Youkilis and Pedroia as well. But they'll also get slight upturns from Lugo and Drew, and Ellsbury will improve their offense over Crisp as well.

It will all balance, and they'll end up with VERY similar offensive production as 2007... plus similar defense, a nearly identical bullpen (with upgrades, now that Gagne is gone), and a better, deeper rotation. And thanks to some $$ coming off the books (Clement, Pineiro, Schilling's lower price), their payroll will be LESS than it was in 2007.

This isn't exactly 10 yrs at 275 mil. We got him rather cheaply I think at 3yrs 37.5 mil.

I think this is better than giving up Ellsbury and Buchholz for Miguel Cabrera.

I'd rather not move Lowrie away from his natural position. I'm hoping we can replace Lugo and plug Lowrie there in the near future.

Sean O, are you a moron?

Lugo had an off year at the plate, but he made some great plays in the field, especially during the playoffs.

Drew struggled during the season, but he only hit a grand slam in the first inning against Fausto Carmona in the ALCS.

And good for you predicting Lugo's line in June - when he hit around .100.

All the moves Theo has made are terrible, that's why he has won 2 W.S. in his time in Boston. What an dumb ass that guy is.

so what did you guys want the red sox to do? Trade propsects? Lowrie is not ready so dont give me that answer.

Lugo hit 280 in the second half and hit over .300 from the number 9 spot....he can rebound

Check the Fire Brand archives, they're all there.

Lowrie may not be ready, but what about trying out Lowrie, Chris Carter and Brandon Moss? We see if any of them can handle it. I'm upset that we didn't even try to find a solution, considering we didn't even make the Winter Meetings where we could shop for people.

by first i mean third :P

Sean O, before i get to deep into a discussion with you i would like to state: That i was against the Red sox signing Mike Lowell for more the two years....to be honest i don't think he will come close to matching 07 with 08. Keeping this in mind how do you know that Theo didn't try? Arod went back to the Yanks and Miggy's price was too high. I ill judge the signing of Lowell when spring training comes along. If they stand pat and this is all they do i will question it, but if they trade these "pieces" that you wanted them to shop for a 3rd baseman for pitching(Santana? haren?) then i will agree with Theo.

Keep in mind if they waited until the winter meetings and Lowell signed else where they could be in another Coco Crisp situation were they would have to overpay for a 3B

Santana has rising home run rates and is a lefty going to Fenway? No way. Haren's 2nd half is much more indicative, where he was essentially a mid-4's LAIMer as opposed to the unattainable first half.

We have pitching, and more coming. Papelbon, Beckett, Matsuzaka, MDC, Bowden, Masterson, hell even Bard if he learns some control. We need hitting, hitters who can get on base and slug over .500.

Ortiz is a large guy who profiles like Mo Vaughn, players who fall apart as they enter their 30s. Manny has already had a terrible season, and while he'll likely rebound, he is getting older. We have no power solutions for the future, and none in the system.

I don't want to become the Angels.

Quick poll, has anyone read through a single post that Red Sox Dynasty has made? About the 2nd line the verbal excrement becomes too much and I scroll to the next post.

Anyone actually make it through one? No?

metafrantic:

I think:

a) his home/road split was a bit due to luck. I bet he's better on the road in 08, and worse at home (though for reasons you suggest, about the monster, he'll be better at home).

b) his BA, and thus OBP and SLG numbers, were inflated due to his high BABIP

c) his RBI numbers were inflated due to RISP.

These are very, very rough numbers, but make the BABIP correction, and apply that to his RISP averages, and he loses 30-40 RBI, and ends up with an almost exact copy of 2006.

With normal luck, he'd be maybe a little better than he was in 2006. Odds are that based on age we should see some decline (not guaranteed at all, of course), and I come up with 2006 again.

"That still leaves from November 19th through early March to find someone else for first or third, which theo completely ignored."

How can you say this? Do you have personal inside information as to what other options Theo Epstein looked at?

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/

"The Red Sox had placed a deadline of today for Lowell to make up his mind. If Lowell had passed on the Sox offer, which remained pretty close to the original offer they made the World Series MVP, they were ready to begin implementing their Plan B."

See? They had other options in mind. They'd just decided that Lowell - at the value they set for him - was their first choice. If he'd held out for more money/years, they'd have moved on.

Notice that nobody agrees with you Sean?

Nobody agreed with me for Damon either, and for the most part, everyone wanted Lugo. Nobody agreed with me when I said Crisp can't hit.

I'm ok with all that. In case anyone actually want to analyze the deal though, you won't be happy if you're a Red Sox fan. Yankees fans should be dancing right now.

With all that knowledge, he also got Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo. He signed Rudy Seanez coming off of a one year lucky spell to be our setup guy, and Matt Mantei the year before. With that info, he gave up Cla Meredith and Bard for Doug Mirabelli. He traded Riske, who had a servicable season, for a LOOGY who gets killed by lefties in Lopez.

It's ok to try for risk, but you need to have a backup. Lowell is a risky choice, since he'll be at or below average by next year at the earliest, and we have no other options. Theo, with all of this information, continually makes horrifically bad decisions.

Actually a lot of people agreed with you on Damon. I know that I personally did not want him back even for 3 years because of how over-rated he really was. Sean it sounds like you dont like any deals. The Sox are the only team to have won 2 world sereis in this millenium, I dont see why you are so critical of management.

As a Yankee fan, I'll say that the Sox make a lot of great decisions, and some not-so-great ones (just like us).

The thing is, even though some players are overpaid, they were still valuable (Matsuzaka, for example).

Like Clemens - worth $17M (or whatever he ended up getting paid)? No way. But do they make the playoffs without him? Likely not.

Sure, there are better choices that could have been made at some positions (SS, RF), but every team is going to make mistakes, and if you won the WS with a payroll that's acceptable to the owners, how can you complain?

Three years is not a ton. I don't think the Sox truly believe they'll get the same kind of production (at least not BA and RBI) out of Lowell. I do think they expect Drew and Lugo to produce more, and for Ellsbury to outproduce Crisp. They don't need Lowell to be a beast again, just a steady offensive and good-to-great defensive player, as well as a fantastic guy in the clubhouse. I like the move a ton.

How much of these "astonishing DP and LOB numbers" is a factor of the amount of walks this team takes?

"3B is a position where you can get power, and we have none."

None? Lowell averages 22 HR and 39 3B every year. In 2007 he was 2nd among AL 3B in 2B and 4th in HR. In 2006 he was 1st in 2B and 8th in HR. Is that "none"? Sounds like some decent power to me.

"The best thing about this is that it makes Crede the second best third basemen on the market. All that needs to happen now is a Miggy Cabs trade and Crede is as good as gone."

HA! See, if even White Sox fans want him gone, I'm damned glad that the Crisp-for-Crede rumor didn't pan out!

Well he's very solid defensively, but he never plays the whole season (he's averaged 434 AB over the last 5 years) and his career .305 OBP is painful.

Ah, Sean O., predictor of all things baseball. I say we get Theo fired and start a petition for Sean O. to take over.

Sean, you still think we gave up too much for Beckett? The same Beckett that was the only reliable starter we had all postseason? Unless Hanley has some secret pitching ability, I think we needed Josh to win this world series.

Anyway, MORGAN ENSBERG? The same Morgan Ensberg that has gotten worse and worse over the last two years, while Lowell has gotten better and better? The same Ensberg that hit .230/.320/.404 this past year? Btw, when I look at Morgan's splits, it really shows me why splits are overrated. He was absolutely terrible at home, hitting .183. Yet, Minute Maid is a GREAT park for right handers. Couldnt even capitalize on that. Yet you think someone that is already declining and put up a 88 OPS+ this past year, someone who is, at best average defensively (post as many blogs that say Lowell is bad at 3rd that you want, anyone with 2 eyes can see that hes pretty good), to replace Lowell?!?! Thats your big answer to the 3B question?

You keep on talking about getting MORE power at 3rd base, but you want a guy that slugged .404 or Jed Lowrie to take over? Pick a side dude, because the guy you keep bitching about has had 128 Xtra base hits over the last 2 years.

"It might be “Short-Term” or “Below-Market-Value” to the Yanks/BSox ~ but not to the sport as a whole. This is just another bad contract given by the huge-spenders."

Oh, right, right, because this is so much worse for the sport then the four year deal Philly and Los Angeles were supposedly offering. If there's even a lick of truth to that, this is, by the definition of the term, a "below-market-deal." Whether you personally agree with the market is irrelevant.

"I mean is Lowell now the second highest paid 3B in baseball, right?"

No...Aramis Ramirez is getting about $15MM per, Adrian Beltre's contract was about $12.8MM per, and Troy Glaus is making an identical $12.5MM next season at the end of a backloaded contract with an AAV of $11.25MM.

metafrantic:

"bobo, well put, although I think the Yankees would have been better off without Clemens. He only gave them 99 IP and it was a very league-average 99 innings. They could have gotten that from any number of guys a lot cheaper."

Eh, I'm not sure. There wasn't really anyone available that you'd be confident in giving you even league-average numbers that wouldn't cost a ton in terms of prospects. I'm trying to think about who the best starters available were - maybe Garland or someone like that?

Even if the Yankees offered the White Sox $12M cash (Clemens's salary minus Garland's salary) for Garland on June 1, I don't know if the White Sox would have taken that.

So they got an average starter, and didn't have to trade any prospects. Some Yankee fans may have been expecting a Cy Young winner - I wasn't. I just wanted someone - anyone - who could manage an ERA lower than 8. Because believe me, the Yankees threw everyone they had out there when all their starters decided to strain their hamstrings, and everyone was awful.

Even with 20/20 hindsight, I don't know if there was a better option than Clemens.

"there's no way the Yankees couldn't have found someone for $18m could give them 200 league-average IP; that's Johan Santana money. Even at the same ridiculous price, twice the innings at the same level would have been better."

Oh, definitely - but that would have been in the offseason. (If you're arguing they should have had more SP depth, then I totally agree, but my point is at the time of the Clemens signing - midseason - that he was probably the best option).

I'm trying to think of starters who were available - Contreras, Morris, Trachsel, Garland, Padilla, Redman...

You get my point. MAYBE Garland could have put up the numbers Clemens did, but Williams was asking for the world for him.

The other guys...well - if we had got one of them in place of Clemens, then you guys would have beat the Tigers instead of the Angels in the first round.

Gah - that was supposed to say Karstens, not Rasner.

"So if 5Years to A) the face of the Mariners B) the 27YO probable NL MVP C) 28YO Best pitcher in baseball… Only Ichiro will be older than Lowell at the end of the respective deals and each of them hold “super-star” ability instead of “off career year”. "

Those were just examples, for god's sake. You want more? Here's a list of the FORTY-ONE 4-year and up contracts given out, IN JUST THE LAST YEAR:

http://community.livejournal.com/baseballblog/4314.html

9 contracts of 6 years or more within the last year. Even Brandon fucking Inge got 4 years. And 25 different teams gave out those contracts, so don't start suggesting it's only big-market teams.

And no - I WON'T be complaining about this deal within a year. If you want to be reactionary and declare it crap before it's even been signed, that's your problem. I actually prefer to see how contracts go before deciding how they went.