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« Chavez Would Waive No-Trade Rights | Main | Yankees, Brewers, Giants, Astros, Rays After Percival »
Buster Olney has been digging up all sorts of good trade rumors, and I'm happy to pass along his info. Let's start with the A's.
We recently discussed Eric Chavez, who as far as we know is staying put but wouldn't get in Billy Beane's way if he decides to move him. However, with apologies to Chavez, the hot stove buzz around the A's will be focused on their young pitching.
We know Dan Haren would draw a huge bounty of three to five very good young players. We can assume that Joe Blanton would command a similar price, maybe slightly less. Olney revealed today that Billy Beane isn't likely to rebuild and try to contend simulataneously. Instead, he would have a massive fire sale. If Haren goes, Blanton and Huston Street probably would too. Olney says Beane's plan would be similar to the Marlins with Miguel Cabrera - target specific blue-chip prospects and approach those teams.
The Dodgers, Mets, Diamondbacks, and Yankees are named as teams that would figure to be in on an Oakland fire sale. Those are the clubs with top shelf prospects that are going hard after starting pitching this winter. This is shaping up to be one hell of a hot stove league. Matthew Cerrone adds that if the Angels strengthen themselves by adding Cabrera (which Olney expects), that would further encourage the A's to punt on '08.
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this will be the hottest trading team if they go through with it, i love haren an street, this should be real fun if the really are going through with the fire sale
PS - i love the name Huston Street, sounds like a Mortal Kombat guy or something lol
Posted by: 04Forever | November 21, 2007 at 10:44 AM
Huston Street, WINS! Fatality!
Posted by: 04Forever | November 21, 2007 at 10:46 AM
As a die hard A's fan, I'm up for a fire sale. This team currently has 2 guys who have the potential to be or are dominant players: Dan Haren, Daric Barton.
If dealing Haren, Blanton, Gaudin, and Street brings in 10 high level prospects why not do it? The current team is not going to be able to compete with the Indians, Angels, Tigers, red socx, and yankes, or even the Blue Jays, Twins, and Mariners.
The A's would be wise to deal Street before the Twins put Nathan on the block.
Posted by: jclay | November 21, 2007 at 10:52 AM
jclay, I 100% agree with you that a fire sale may be the way to go. If the team is going to be rebuilding, they might as well trade for as many prospects as possible. That said, I'd still try to do everything possible to hang on to haren, but definately trade the rest in anticipation of an exciting team in fremont.
Posted by: SkiBolton | November 21, 2007 at 10:58 AM
Why doesnt harden's name come up in dump talks anymore?
Posted by: bsox21 | November 21, 2007 at 10:58 AM
I would like the Sox to make a run at Huston Street, if he was made available and stick him in the power RHP setup role that they are looking to upgrade. I don't know if Street would be interested in that role, but I'm not sure he could do much about it. What would it take to get him? Masterson? Lowrie?
If I were Billy Beane, I would try to package Haren with Chavez, much like the Marlins did in the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell trade. It would limit the trade partners, but would help shed additional payroll. I guess it all depends on what type of return you'd get if you put them together compared to if you made 2 seperate deals.
How about a Street/Haren combo deal for the Sox (I'm sure the Yanks and Mets would love that combo too).
Street and Haren for:
Lester, Lowrie, Crisp, and Bowden? Too much? Not enough?
Posted by: Papelboner | November 21, 2007 at 11:01 AM
i think that deal would only get us street Papelboner
Posted by: 04Forever | November 21, 2007 at 11:03 AM
Harden doesn't come up in dump talks anymore b/c the A's would rather hang on to him for cheap and hope he gets healthy than trade him for 1 cent on the dollar.
I would be really surprised to see any of the A's go to an AL team unless the haul was HUGE. Like Pedroia, Bucholz, and two more prospects for Haren. How would it help the A's to deal their best players to a competitor for their B-level prospects and a CF to open up a hole for a better CF? Take nothing away from Lester and company in the above proposed deal, but there's a reason why the socx are willing to deal those guys and not Ellsbury, Pedroia, Bucholz, etc.
Billy will be holding out for better than the Mark Mulder deal for Haren and Blanton.
Posted by: jclay | November 21, 2007 at 11:09 AM
No way that deal works.
Lester might PROJECT to be as good as Haren, depending on what scouting reports you read. So, even if he hits his upside the A's end up with a similar pitcher. That's a HUGE IF though.
Crisp is a salary dump. Lowrie and Bowden ... come on now.
If teams are preparing to offer Kemp, Loney, LaRoche and Billingsley for Santana the Sox better be prepared to sell off similar talent for Haren AND Street.
Posted by: bjsguess | November 21, 2007 at 11:25 AM
There is no way that Blanton should bring back as much prospects as Haren. Haren is heads and above Blanton in performance his whole career. He shouldn't even draw something slightly less, I think the chasm between their performances are that great. If Billy gets close deals for both, he either got snookered on Haren or snookered someone on Blanton (though if he deals Haren first, the losers might overpay for Blanton, much like how he dealt Hudson first then Mulder).
Personally, unless he gets a heck of a deal for Haren, I would hold him until mid-season, by then contenders will be chomping at the bit to get a pitcher like him, I would think.
Say, that brings up a good question, do people think that it is easier to get more now, when things are pretty unsettled, or mid-season when teams might feel that a player like Haren could be the tipping point since there is more at stake then?
In any case, I would not deal Haren just to deal him, whereas for Blanton, I think the time is right, same with Street, he's been injured too frequently for my tastes. Heck, most of the team has been frequently injured, Crosby, Chavez, outfielders, and now they traded Scutaro, who saved their butts when Crosby was out.
Posted by: obsessivegiantscompulsive | November 21, 2007 at 11:27 AM
I'd eat my shorts if Crisp came over in any deal for an A's player, thats laughable...
Posted by: NorCalBB | November 21, 2007 at 12:09 PM
obsessivegiantscompulsive: The difference between Haren and Blanton is Haren will cost $16.25 over the next three years while Blanton is under team control for the next three years.
Posted by: scatterbrian | November 21, 2007 at 12:12 PM
I still do not understand why the braves are not pursuing the idea of getting Blanton. I do not consider Haren a possibility because we just do not have the superstar potential prospect billy beane would want in return for Haren. However, for Blanton, i would think we could have a shot given that we have a young arm we could send back their way (jurrjens, james, or reyes) along with the shortstop whom they want (Lillibridge). The braves do have good depth, but that depth has so many question marks. Hudson should continue to be our ace, but with Smoltz and Glavine you have to worry about their age, Reyes and Jurrjens will have adjustment issues, James may or may not return to form this year, and Hampton of course is a pipe dream to return to any form of his oldself. Now, all of these questions could go the right way for the braves, but they could just as easily go wrong for the braves. Plus, once smoltz and glavine are gone, blanton has top of the rotation type talent, especially in the nl, and could step up as a future Number 2 or better. I think that if the braves have what it takes to get the deal done, which we do, we should definitely pursue it.
Posted by: bravesbeast | November 21, 2007 at 12:52 PM
Haren would be putting up Jake Peavy seasons every single year in the NL...any team should consider trading their farm if they can lock him up at the same time. Haren is an absolute stud.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 21, 2007 at 01:20 PM
Everyone keeps saying that the Yanks are going after pitching, but does anyone else think there's a good chance that rotation next year is Wang, Joba, Hughes, Moose, and Kennedy? I do. I mean, the Yanks could essentially pick up any available starter for combinations of Joba, Hughes, Cano, Melky, Austin Jackson, Tabata, etc., but really don't seem inclined to do so. Definitely keep the rumor mill going w/r/t guys who are worth getting at just about any cost, like Santana and Peavy, but are the Yanks really going to break the bank open for Dan Haren? Particularly when Beane will hold out until he's got exactly what he wants? Seems unlikely.
Posted by: Oui Oui | November 21, 2007 at 01:36 PM
the Yanks and break the bank open go hand in hand, regardless of who it is
Posted by: NorCalBB | November 21, 2007 at 02:01 PM
"Haren would be putting up Jake Peavy seasons every single year in the NL...any team should consider trading their farm if they can lock him up at the same time. Haren is an absolute stud."
Exactly. And I disagree with bravesbeast; I think the Braves do have enough farm talent to get a deal done for Haren. Now, granted we can't offer a package as attractive as the Angels and Dodgers can put together, but if they go shopping for others I think the Braves can get it done.
This would mean something like four or five of the following: Brandon Jones, Brent Lillibridge, Chuck James, Jo Jo Reyes, Jair Jurrjens, and Gorkys Hernandez. Basically anyone except Jordan Schafer and Jason Heyward (although Beane might insist that Schafer is included).
Posted by: Something Profound | November 21, 2007 at 02:07 PM
But something Profound, that trade right there is more of a quantity than quality trade, and the braves are not going to sell the farm for a pitcher. While I say our depth has enough questions that it would be smart to try to go after a guy like blanton, it would not be smart to sell the farm for Haren. Frank Wren is not going to put all his chips into one trade, it is just not going to happen. When i say we do not have the pieces to get him, I mean that we do not using a reasonable mindset. We just are not going to give up that many guys who are ready to contribute at the majors for one pitcher, it is just not going to happen. Blanton would cost us two of those guys, and maybe a lower level prospect, a less costly but wise move in getting a young reliable starter. We may have the talent to get haren, but not in a reasonable sense by any means.
Posted by: bravesbeast | November 21, 2007 at 02:27 PM
considering the duds Beane got for Hudson, I'd steer clear from dealing with the Braves if I were him
Posted by: NorCalBB | November 21, 2007 at 03:26 PM
I couldn't agree with you more bravesbeast. I'll be honest, you opened my eyes to the incredible fit the A's and Braves are as trading partners for Blanton and I've been spreading your gospel ever since.
Lillibridge or Andrus and Jurrjens for Blanton seems like a great deal for both teams. The Bravos get the high end starter and innings eater they need without selling the farm, and the A's get their SS of the Future and a high ceiling SP to plug into Blanton's old spot. Perfect match.
Haren seems to be a good fit for the Doddgers as they have the volume of high end prospects needed to get the deal done, and the desire for a front line starter. Kershaw, Billingsly, Kemp, and Tony Abreu may get it done.
Street and Gaudin are tough to gauge. Pretty much any team is a possibility for Street b/c everyone is always looking for bullpen help and Street can close or set up. Gaudin would be a great alternative to anyone thinking of signing Carlos Silva or one of the other mediocre and soon to be overpaid starters on the market this offseason.
Posted by: jclay | November 21, 2007 at 03:26 PM
JCLAY needs to slow down a bit. Are you actually advocating a Kemp/Bills/Kershaw/Abreu deal for Haren???
Haren is a quality pitcher that could be a #1 starter for the next 5 years. However, that is still an insane offer...even for Haren.
Billingsley was 33rd among MLB pitchers in VORP (with an average of 70 fewer innings pitched than the guys above him)
Kemp was 12th in VORP among RFs with about 300 fewer ABs than the players above him.
These guys are top notch MLB players RIGHT NOW.
Kershaw is the #1 pitching prospect in ALL of baseball. I know they don't always pan out, but they're traded as if they do.
And Abreu...well he's not that great.
No way in hell LAD should make that move.
I know I sound like a broken record at this point, but here it goes anyway...
The following players are NOT PROSPECT...THEY ARE NOT PROSPECTS...
Kemp
Loney
Billingsely
Ethier
Martin (nobody really says he is anymore)
Posted by: kbrooks2LA | November 21, 2007 at 03:58 PM
Well it's simple, the Yankees aren't getting any of those guys because they will have to trade young pitching prospects which is not happening. I don't see Harren or Street being traded (too valuable) but Blanton is possible to being delt.
Posted by: yankfan1 | November 21, 2007 at 07:02 PM
The Yankees are better off just throwing their own blue chips into the rotation next year; cheaper and bigger upsides than Blanton and Santana seems to be a pitcher who may lose effectiveness by the end of his eventual huge contract. Just doesn't seem to have the velocity to blow people away when he makes mistakes; gives up a ton of homers. As we saw with Josh Beckett between 06 and 07, home runs can really make your ERA fluctuate.
Posted by: JD | November 21, 2007 at 10:09 PM
Don't worry kbrooks... I know Billingsly and Kemp are not prospects, they are young major leaguers. The high end prospects I was referring to were Kershaw and Abreu, but it was worded poorly. Next time I'lle be sure to write the volume of high-end prospects and high ceiling young major leaguers to get the deal done.
I've heard the dodgers are willing to give up those guys in the right deal, and are interested in bringing in a front line starter, which is why I mentioned them. I'm sure that Kershaw and Kemp would be necessary to complete a deal for Haren, but Billingsly may have been a little excessive. My guess is LaRoche would be involved but I'm not high on him.
Bottom line: The team that gets Haren is going to have to give up a lot of talent (both prospects and young major leaguers with high ceilings) and the Dodgers look like a good fit.
Posted by: jclay | November 22, 2007 at 01:56 PM
Don't worry kbrooks... I know Billingsly and Kemp are not prospects, they are young major leaguers. The high end prospects I was referring to were Kershaw and Abreu, but it was worded poorly. Next time I'lle be sure to write the volume of high-end prospects and high ceiling young major leaguers to get the deal done.
I've heard the dodgers are willing to give up those guys in the right deal, and are interested in bringing in a front line starter, which is why I mentioned them. I'm sure that Kershaw and Kemp would be necessary to complete a deal for Haren, but Billingsly may have been a little excessive. My guess is LaRoche would be involved but I'm not high on him.
Bottom line: The team that gets Haren is going to have to give up a lot of talent (both prospects and young major leaguers with high ceilings) and the Dodgers look like a good fit.
Posted by: jclay | November 22, 2007 at 01:57 PM