Yanks Want Lowell For First Base

DunkinDonuts,
I literally just created an account so that I can commend you on your post - that had greatest flow of words about that subject I have ever seen!
And yes, I'm a diehard Yankee fan.

Hope to be posting some comments in the future...

how many comment will there be if something actually happens? The Red sox should just say thanks for the great year, good luck with the Yankee and take there draft pick.

4 years 60 million!! WHAT!! WHY!!

i dont know, it sounds like the yankees might announce both now next week

well he isnt a sellout yet, once ink touches paper, then he his....will see what he does

metafrantic,

How much is the relief of not having to search for other 3B options really worth to the Red Sox? Lowell is not a $15M per year player. Just how good a defensive player he is depends on which metric you fancy. His career OPS is .812. For perspective, Drew's career OPS is .890, and was above .900 when he signed.

I just don't see a career .280 hitter who had a solid season at age 33 maintaining that pace. I don't think it would be wise to shell out 3/$45M for an anomalous season and feelings of goodwill after a WS victory.

In 2007, only 11 MLB players made $15M. Five of them were Yankees. I'm not ready to put Lowell in that company just to shore up 3B.

Bad idea from the Yanks part. Lowell could only hit good in Fenway. Paying him for four years is a bad idea.

Lowell should be paid like one of the top 10 players in baseball because of the fact that the RedSox might have a hard time finding someone else to play 3B right now...

...Isnt that some backwards, *F*ed up logic there?

Lowell probably shouldn’t even be considered one of the top 50 players in all of baseball and he should be paid like the mega-stars? If the Yankees want him at that cost, let them have him ~ its one of those amazing stupid ideas…

"Lowell should be paid like one of the top 10 players in baseball because of the fact that the RedSox might have a hard time finding someone else to play 3B right now...

...Isnt that some backwards, *F*ed up logic there?"

Of course it is! Do you think I'm HAPPY the the Sox have to overpay on Lowell? It's stupid and ridiculous!

But the thing is - the Red Sox don't control the market! They can't just say "This is what you're worth, this is all we're going to pay you" and then expect the player to accept it if another team is offering them twice as much!

That's exactly what will happen with Lowell if the Sox refuse to budge; Lowell will sign with the Yankees or the Dodgers, some team that gives him more per year and an extra year on top of it. Why the hell would any player take a $36m contract if they have a $60m offer on the table?

My suggestion of upping Lowell's yearly pay but staying at 3 years wasn't about his value - it was about showing Lowell that the Sox really do value him. Even if the Yankees only offered him 3 years, he'd still have to be seriously tempted if their offer is $2m/year more. Who wouldn't want an extra $6m?

But if the Sox tell Lowell "We only have room in our plans for you for 3 years, but for those 3 years we'll value you as highly as anyone in baseball", maybe that - as well as the other benefits, like a fanbase that already loves him and a park well suited to his hitting style - would be enough to convince him to stay. The Sox give him a bit more, but keep the commitment short-term.

I think one of the big weak spots in Theo Epstein's role as GM of the Red Sox is that he get obsess with certain players. Matt Clement was one of those certain players he was drooling over because of his high strikeout ratio. (Clement was going to go to be traded for Lowe as part of the Garciaparra trade in 2004) Ditto for Drew, besides the Wily Mo Peña trade. Not signing Pedro was in hindsight the right move, but signing Clement, who had just as screwed up shoulder as Pedro, wasn't not the greatest move, nor pursuing Lowe, who had some brilliant stats like a no hitter and 20 wins in a season, and some pratfalls as well.

I think Epstein is taking the right approach to Lowe right now, but he should had signed him at the beginning of the 2007 season.

As much as the Ortiz and Okajima signings overcome all the bad signings and trades times two. I think Epstein and his staff should look at more at times than their fixed worth of a player, given they had had more shortstops in the past four years than Spinal Tap has had drummers. They could had Orlando Cabrera cheaper than Renteria and Lugo, and got better fielding and hitting production.

SABRmetrics are a good tool but they don't predict the future. However, I think if any ballclub signs Lowell for four years and a monster salary, they are going to be in for a surprise in a downturn in batting production.

darkstar1661, it's amazing how you seem to have skimmed over what I wrote and completely missed the important points.

I NEVER said the Sox should overpay Lowell because he's the easist. I don't give a f*** if he's the easiest. I said he was the lesser evil, because THERE IS NO ONE BETTER AVAILABLE.

The only 3B actually on the market who is a better player than Lowell is Miguel Cabrera, who will cost $10m-$12m/year over the next two years AND cost any team that wants him several A-grade prospects. Or, they pay Lowell a few million a year more, get lower production, BETTER defense, and keep their prospects. In the Sox's case, they get to keep 6 years each out of Buccholz & Ellsbury, plus two more prospects. In this case, Lowell is the better buy for the Red Sox over Cabrera.

The other options are worse: Blalock or Crede through trade, Corey Koskie or Mike Lamb via free agency - their numbers are all worse than Lowell's.

And you mentioned they have the option of moving Youkilis to 3B. Sure, they could take the guy out of the position he just won a gold glove in. And they'll fill the 1B position with... Tony Clark? Ryan Klesko? Hey, they could re-sign Douc Mientkiewicz!

There are NO BETTER OPTIONS. It's not a matter of taking the easiest choice, it's taking the best of what the market makes available. If you can suggest a better option I'd love to hear it. Not just a CHEAPER option - a BETTER option.

Oh, and you keep saying "signing Lowell at 2X his worth". Just because you decided what you think he's worth doesn't make it true. The market has changed. Players are worth a lot more than they would have been even two years ago. And even if Lowell was only worth $8-10m/year, then $13-15m is still less than 2X.

Metafrantic,

a) 8-10M to 13-15M… 2X 8 is 16 so its rather close to 2X isn’t it? I guess we can get ticky-tack and say that a 13-15M isn’t 2X his value, but its rather close…

b) Players are worth that much more over 2 offseasons? So the inflation rate is about 4M a year?

c) Saying “a & b” means that Miguel Cabrera will make upwards of 20M in Arbitration ~ why has it been projected at 11M though?

d) I didn’t skim over your posts to come up with the “easy” option ~ I’m just telling you that’s what Lowell is. Want an option? Crisp could be traded for Crede, you don’t add hardly anything in salary and you save the 13-15 youre offering Lowell meaning you can sign someone else with that cash. Do you like Andrew Jones + Crede or Lowell + Crisp for the same amount as far as value?

There are really countless other options; “Lowell is the only 3B avail” is just the “easy” one… Since Youk can play 3rd and almost anyone can play 1st then the “players avail to fill the RedSox 3B hole” really includes any single player available on the market, whether in trade or FA. You telling me that in all of baseball you haven’t heard of a single better player being available instead of paying Mike Lowell as if he’s one of the top 10 players in baseball?

Shoot, sign Hunter or Jones to play 1B ~ its still probably about what you are claiming Lowell should get... Sign Jose Guillen for about ½-2/3 that amount and put him at 1B ~ he produced about what Lowell will for ya last year.

…again, its just an unlimited amount of options available to them since they already have a 3B on the roster…

BTW, there IS one option that I like more than Lowell; bring SS Jed Lowrie up from AAA Pawtucket, and either have him try 3B or shift Lugo over. Lugo's the worse fielder, so he should probably be the one to make the move; and going SS to 3B is easier than a lot of position changes.

Having said that, the Sox will never do it. But I'd love to have them see if Lowrie's ready. (of coruse, if it turns out he's not then they have the same problem again)

Cool deal,

First ~ thank you for a calm, logical response!

Anyway,
b) I don’t think there has been a single year which has seen 4M/YR inflation rates; I don’t believe there are not enough guys making upwards of 10-12M for it to be feasible. That makes “The market has changed. Players are worth a lot more than they would have been even two years ago” difficult, which is what I was trying to portray. If Lowell was worth 7 or 8M 2 years ago his true value cant be in the 15M range without a 4M/YR inflation rate ~ get it? Which leads us to…

c) was saying Miguels worth should 20+M a year in Arbitration under those inflation rates. If Lowells worth is 15 and Cabrera is considered vastly superior then 20+ might even be on the low side. Guess we’ll have to watch for that…

d) “Jones/Crede vs. Lowell/Crisp... I realize that's just one option, but for the record? Yeah, I'd rather have Lowell/Crisp hitting in Fenway. Lowell/Crisp is considerably better defensively, Lowell hits better than Crede, Crisp is 5 years younger than Jones, Jones hasn't ever been tried against AL pitchers, and he's a free agent with Scott Boras as his agent.”

Fair enough, you don’t like that option quite as much ~ I just randomly pulled it out of my rear real fast anyway because I needed one :) hehehe… (Does show there are quite a few avail though…) But anyway, instead you want to pay a single player that was unwanted as little as a year ago nearly twice as much as he’s worth? See, that’s the part that just seems rather illogical…

And that’s the thing; I just don’t see the logic what so ever in paying a guy that wasn’t wanted such a short period of time ago upwards of 5 million than he’s probably worth just because they need a 3B. It’s the same backwards logic that has created the disaster that the Yanks have, its creating long-term horrible situations to fill an immediate need with the easiest option. Its really no different than the Damon contract if you think about it, and we all know that NY would love out of that one…

b) not across the board, certainly. I was thinking more of individual years at a certain position, for which the market was unusually thin and there was a lot of demand. Two years ago, would a Carlos Silva have gotten anywhere near a $10m/year deal, even for one or two years? Of course not. But now he's expected to field several 4/40 offers. It's just basic supply and demand.

c) well, in arbitration no one gets what they could get as free agents... that's just a given. It's because there's only one team they can play for, so there's no negotiating leverage. Supposedly arbitration salaries are based on market value, but on average players get between 70% and 80% of their FA market value. It can be more or less of course, depending on whether the team's or the player's submitted number is the one the arbiters accept. That's one of the weirdest things about the whole process: there's no middle ground, unless the two sides agree before it actually reaches arbitration.

"But anyway, instead you want to pay a single player that was unwanted as little as a year ago nearly twice as much as he’s worth?"

I don't like it when people use this argument against Lowell, and here's why:

First, the Red Sox didn't consider Lowell the "throw-in' that everyone seemed to think; yes he was a salary dump, but that's because the Marlins have such a tiny payroll. Both Epstein and Lucchino came out and said that they thought Lowell would do well at Fenway and they were happy to get him, and that was BEFORE his 2007 season.

Second, everyone seems to bag on Lowell because of his 2005 season, which admittedly was terrible. But that was ONE season, by far the worst of his career. He'd had 5 much better seasons before, and he's had two much better seasons since. The terrible year was the abberation, not the other way around. No, he won't match his 2007 season again; but on the other hand, I think that he can do a bit better than his career averages (.282/.345/.472 with 22 HR, 91 RBI, 75 Runs and 39 2B in 551 AB) across the board for the next few years. That, plus his stellar defense and the fact that he's incredibly respected in the clubhouse and adored by the fans, makes him quite valuable... to the Sox. another team, not so much.

Honestly, the Sox should be the only team giving him any kind of serious offer, since he's more likely to reproduce his good numbers there than anywhere else. If the market made sense, it SHOULD be: Sox offering 3 years @ 8-10m (maybe a LITTLE higher), and everyone else offering less. Unfortunately, the market doesn't always make sense (see previous comment RE: Carlos Silva). It seems that the Yankees made their 4/56 offer to Lowell partly to keep him away from the Sox, and that doesn't seem like good sense... although from a business perspective, weakening your opponent does have merit.

Also, I wouldn't call three years long-term. 4, 5 years and up, that's long-term. 3 is reasonable. Even if they only got one more solid offensive year out of Lowell, they'll only have lost two, and have the depth to cover that. That's not such a terrible loss. But any more and it can't be counteracted. that's why I've been saying that 3 years is acceptable for Lowell, but 4 and up isn't. And apparently the Sox agree, because they're not budging on that 4th year.

If the Sox were to go after a short-term stopgap, I'd rather they pursue Blalock than Crede. Blalock is controlled for 2 years pretty cheap, and has the potential to match Lowell's numbers in a good hitter's park like Fenway... maybe. He's been a disappointment in Texas to what everyone thought he was going to be.

But I don't want a one-year answer: the Sox don't have a minor league solution for 3B that will be ready in one year; 2 years, maybe. And if not, they'll have two years to find another solution as opposed to one. I don't want them to be looking at the same problem one year from now.