Not Much Cooking With Johan

The Mets just don't have the prospects to compete in the competitive pool of the Santana sweepstakes.

you are wrong Stephen its that the Twins want major league ready talent and all the Mets best prospects are not major league ready.

Im just wondering what else it would cost the Mets if they did offer Reyes. Reyes is, well, Reyes. I know were talking about the best pitcher in baseball, but if im giving up Reyes, the Twins better not expect the farm to go along with him. I'll throw in Humber and one of Pelfrey/Mulvey...but thats it. Barring injury, Reyes will be an all star/mvp candidate for the next 10 years...and then some.

As a great philosopher once wrote: "Much Ado about Nothing."

I still don't understand the Twins fascination with getting a top-flight pitching prospect back in this deal. One of the Baseball Prospectus writers noted how stacked the Twins are with young pitching, even without Santana or Garza. The Twins have been good at drafting, developing, and trading for young pitching. What they haven't done nearly as well is draft, develop, and trade for young hitting. Morneau and Mauer are both great, but outside of those two and Ortiz, the haven't developed many impact hitters. And that doesn't improve much even if you think Torri Hunter was an impact hitter.

Trade Johan for hitting, you will develop the pitching!!! Johan for Kemp, LaRoche, and a lower-level prospect makes tons of sense for the Twins. Not sure it makes much sense for the Dodgers, who also need impact hitters. But the Twins would have Mauer, Morneau, Young, Kemp, and LaRoche locked in for at least the next few years. Plus they have Kubel, Cuddyer, and Casilla, who are all capable. Should be a good offensive core.

whats wrong with a proposal or perez, mulvey/humber/pelfrey, chruch, and gomez/F-mart

Perez is a free agent after next year

"I'll throw in Humber and one of Pelfrey/Mulvey"

Wow, I'm glad youre not GM of the Mets. I wouldnt trade Reyes straight up for Johan. Reyes has gold glove defense, is a leadoff hitter and it a gamechanger on the basepaths. How can you trade that for a guy that pitches every five days????

On top of that, you would "throw in" Pelfrey and Humber?? Wow.

The Mets do have the prospects to compete with other teams. Bostons "offer" is awful. Lester projects as a number 3 starter, Crisp is a liability in the field(and overpaid) and the other two prospects mentioned weren't even top 100 prospects last year. Masterson had a 5.00 ERA in A ball last year!!! Pelfrey dominated at AA and AAA, but now he sucks??? He's 23 for Christ's sake!

This insanity has to stop. Red Sox and Yankees prospects getting overvalued, but Mets prospects getting treated like black sheep??

I don't even want Johan anymore, I'd rather keep the prospects. In two years when we have an outfield of Gomez, Beltran and Fernando Martinez, I'll be smiling every day.

I agree the problem with the Mets is a lack of an MLB talent to move. That's really the problem in any offer though. Sure Crisp, Cabrera, and even Ryan Church are MLB tested players, but that doesn't make them impact players, they're all role players who are just enough above average to be considered everyday players.

I think the other problem the Twins are having is that they do have specific needs that aren't exactly being met in any of these packages. That's why you get all the guys who can play CF, that is one need the Twins have, but its probably not their most pressing one. They would much rather find a premium 3B, SS, or even 2B; much hotter commodities right now. Those just don't seem to be available. The Twins probably figure, their best way to get a real stud back is with Santana. They can probably get a role playing CF as a second piece for Nathan later on anyway if that's not a position that's filled. If they get an outfielder for Santana, its gotta be a potential stud like Ellsbury. Gomez, unfortunately, is not far enough along to qualify, although I'm sure they'd love him as a second piece. Its just not quite that easy to find a good, young infielder right now.

This should also be reminder of how lucky the Mets are to have guys like Wright and Reyes. You can't just buy even half that talent at those positions in this market.

Oh, and here's my crazy fantasy scenario for how the Mets get Santana. It'll never happen, but I can dream:

First, Trade John Maine, Carlos Delgado (Mets eat contract here), and Ruben Gotay to the Dodgers for James Loney and Andy LaRoche. Maine seems like he'd be a good fit for the Dodgers. A good #3 is probably the low end of what he'll be, and he could even be a pretty solid #2. Delgado and Gotay act as somewhat viable replacements for both players the Dodgers lose. I imagine now that the Dodgers have Jones, having two guys coming off the worst years of their careers isn't an enticing proposal, but they are also two of the top sluggers of our time, and neither is ridiculously old by any means. Loney gets the Mets younger positionally, and LaRoche could be just the piece the Mets are missing in a trade for Santana. I'd have to imagine LaRoche, Gomez, Pelfrey/Mulvey and another pitcher has to be at least somewhat enticing. It fills all the Twins needs with high upside guys, and there's a good chance at least one and maybe two could be ready for 2008. The problem is still a lack of proven talent, but if at all possible, it would have to be tempting to the Twins. If your the Mets, sure you lose Maine, but the upgrade of Santana and at 1B are worth it. At this point, Livan and El Duque might just make for some extra "story" along the way.

Okay, go ahead and flame away, I just felt like sharing a fantasy ;).

At this point it seems really stupid to me that there is some growing consensus that the Red Sox just succesfully tried to stop the Yankees from getting him. The main reason I think this is that if anyone took the Yankees out of the negotiations it was the Yankees themselves. The Twins appear to for whatever reason be content holding him unless they get 2 major league ready upside prospects (which is not going to happen). The red sox offer is clearly better than the draft picks so they should take it before the season starts if nothing else comes up. One wildcard is that they may know that Santana would not block a trade to the Yankees no matter when it occured. Maybe they want to gamble that the Yankees would become desperate as soon as someone got hurt in their rotation. It seems like a dangerous game because the longer they wait the only teams that can afford him know they are that much closer to getting him for free.

I believe the mets have the best chance at Santana based on the fact that the bosox and yanks are going to give up. Good ol Omar is gonna propose the same old trade everyday until the twins get sick of him and just say yes.

First, Trade John Maine, Carlos Delgado (Mets eat contract here), and Ruben Gotay to the Dodgers for James Loney and Andy LaRoche.

No. Just...no.

I mean Im sure the Dodgers will just bend over to help the Mets landed Santana...

@PDubs

Did you just say Coco Crisp is liability in the field? WOW. I can't take anything you have to play seriosuly. He just missed getting a gold glove, you can't argue with Ichiro, Hunter, and Sizemore.

You obviously have never seen him play. The Twins would be getting him FOR his defense. He's an average hitter, fast, ok arm, but a GREAT defender.He has 13 errors over 6 seasons, that's 2 a year (on this past year).

I didn't and am not gonna read the rest of your post. Make sure you know what you're talking about before you post something here.

Another possible Twins ploy could be to wait for one of the other top available starters to be traded and try to claim a team getting Santana should pay a similar price. Unlikely to work but possibly worth a try.

I don't think Johan is going anywhere. I think the only package that Minnesota liked was from the Yanks (who declined an offer they actually wanted). once Andy came back, it was over.. I dont know if this link was on here, or somewhere else but..

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2007/12/05/2007-12-05_brian_cashman_yanks_balk_at_millions_and.html

The Yankees actually said no because of the $$ and Hughes.

Despite what some of you say Minnesota does NEED one MLB ready pitcher back in any trade or they won't be able to compete with Detroit and Cleveland. They get an untested Liriano back and they lose Santana. They need a pitcher that can start on opening day which the Mets aren't offering, nor anyone else not in Boston or the Bronx.

Santana isn't going anywhere.. but as they said on ESPN - we'll see if thats the case if the Yanks are 10-15 in May...

I meant to say and they lose Santana, and have lost Garza.

PDubs "...Crisp is a liability in the field..."

WHAT? Are you joking? What sport are you talking about here, football? Because Crisp is a hair short of defensive perfection in baseball.

this story just needs to go away. every story involving red sox and yankees just gets beat into your head until you cant take it anymore.

"PDubs

Did you just say Coco Crisp is liability in the field? WOW. I can't take anything you have to play seriosuly"

Calm down there, champ. I made a mistake. I was thinking about the only redeeming quality Coco had, and that is his defense.

He's a liability with the bat. He hit .260 with a .330 OPB last year. He had a .317 OBP in 2006. He struck out 84 times in barely over 500 at bats. Considering how he hits for almost no power, that amount of strikeouts is disgusting.

Trading Johan for a future #3(which the Twins have plenty of) and a defensive centerfielder is just plain irresponsible. If they're gonna make a deal, at least get someone with upside.

You should really stop posting if you think Lester's highest upside is a #3.

PDubs: Jon Lester was always expected to be a future #1/#2. More likely a #2, but certainly not a #3. Once again where are you getting your information... Coming up in the system he was always considered to be the better of the two between himself and Papelbon or at the worst an equal.

And before you reference his stats this year...remember he was coming back early from chemotherapy. He's already reportedly gained some weight back this winter. Really can you judge his performance this season that harshly (not that it was even that poor of a performance esp when you look at his decisions)? The only important thing I personally think you can take from this season is that he can obviosly pitch well under pressure (see game 4 of the world series).

Even beyond the gibberish you've already sputtered out the worst is probably how you keep insisting the trade is just for Coco and Lester. Masterson and Lowrie are the red sox #3 and #4 prospects respectively according to soxprospects.com, behind only Bucholz and Ellsbury. Further, i believe it's baseballprospectus (it was linked in one of the old threads) that ranked the Red Sox players under 25 as follows:
#1 Bucholz
#2 Lester
#3 Ellsbury
#4 Masterson
#5 Pedroia (2007 AL ROTY)
#6 Lowrie

Yah...three of the Sox' top six under 25, two are higher than the 2007 AL ROTY. Yah the sox are offering such garbage aren't they.

Oh and as for crisp. Recheck his CAREER numbers. There's been a lot of talk that he'd likely do better offensively with just a change of scenery. He's had a couple bad years in Boston, but it isn't like he's getting old or anything...

gfulla,

I'll concede that Lester has #2 upside, but pretty much everything I've read as far as scouting reports have him projecting as a #3. I'd LOVE to see something where he's called a future #1.

Crisp needs a change of scenery? According to ESPN's park factor, which compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road, rates Boston at #1 and Minnesota at #28. How is that change of scenery helping his numbers????

Link for your perusal:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

The bottom line is that the Twins need guys with offensive upside. They already have Liriano, Bonser, Baker, Slowey and Perkins. All of these guys are rated better than Masterson, so why trade for something that's not a need. It makes no sense.

Keep attacking me and tell me I'm spitting out gibberish. Just because we have a difference in opinion, it doesn't mean that I'm wrong.

Lester/ Lowrie and Masterson are potential 1/ 1s draft talent the Twins would get if they kept Santana, and thats if Santana is not signed by a team with a protected pick, they could only get 1 good draft pick out of Santana (not likely, but Zito to the Giants.. like we all saw that coming..)

Lowrie is just the player the Twins needs, SLG/OBP SS. Potential stud there, just potential, but it counts, Crisp great defense, and two good pitchers.

PDubs, the Twins trade for pitching depth because they can't get hitting, they can't get Kemp/ LaRoche. So they get Lester/ Masterson, freeing them to trade Lester/ Baker for some hitting (re: Garza for Young)

Seriously, if you haven't noticed by now you cannot have too much pitching, and that virtually every team wants pitching...

PDubs: You should know better than to look at a pitcher's ERA when they play in the minors. Every half-way intelligent fan knows that the pitcher's ERA is inflated in A, AA, and AAA because of defense. Ground balls that decent MLB shortstops would get to are out of the question for subpar shortstops. The same can be said for all positions. While these are not considered errors, they are plays that Major League Talented players make regularly and the rest of us miss.

Failing to trade Johan this offseason will be the Twins' biggest mistake. Nobody can argue against that point. The Twins' are not serious contendors and they need help, holding onto Johan will not be enough to contend in 2008.

QuintJS: Solid point - look at how the Red Sox did in 2007 and look how deep their pitching was. They had their starting 5 plus "fill-ins" like Lester and Bucholz when the other's needed extra rest. Not to mention the strength of Okajima in the pen. Pitchers are your biggest liability and the biggest priority for every team.

Pdubs:
I've never seen him listed in scouting reports as simply a #1 or simply a #3. Generally, I've seen him mentioned as a likely #2 with potential for better.

As for why you'd want Masterson in a trade? It's called depth. Ignoring the potential for injury or just simple failure from some of your pitching staff, Masterson can always be used for relief or flipped as part of some trade for the type of prospects the twins ARE looking for.

Show me the trade where the twins have actually been offered these players with offensive upside and then this argument might hold a bit of water.

As for Coco, Park Factor has nothing to do with what I'm talking about. All players have to deal with the park factor when they play on a particularly field (and btw the numbers you listed were just for 2007, they tend to fluctuate a fair amount as fenway was around #14, 3 of the last 6 years). If you want to show some sort of comparison of left handed vs right handed batters in a particular field with information about how different batting styles/personalities tend to perform then feel free to shower me with information. The fact of the matter is tho, you haven't provided any information to prove Coco is less suited to the Metrodome than to Fenway. Even more, this whole discussion is still not even what i was referring to. A lot of talented players come to larger market teams and tend to flounder under the pressure. I was simply suggesting (as many others have) that Coco might do better in a bit of a smaller market.

Oh, and since you seem unwilling to comment on him at all I guess I'll have to talk about Jed Lowrie on my own. He was the 2007 Red Sox Minor League Offensive Player of the Year with an OPS of .911 over 337 ABs in AA and .862 over 160 ABs in AAA last year. Admittedly he struggled a bit in the fall, however, the fall league was only 24 games long, a rather small sample size.

*One little addendum about Crisp just in case you bothered to bring it up...he may be a switch hitter but remember that doesn't mean his stats are the same batting both lefty and righty. His OPS over the last three years is over .40 points apart between the two (favoring lefty). Also, on a separate note you never bothered responding to Crisps last two years in cleveland where his avg were .297 and .300 over 139 and 145 games respectively.

Meddler, I agree with you on the Mets prospects. That is what scares me about trading for Johan. These guys the Mets have are not really less talented them some other teams prospects, just not as far along. They could end up giving up Gomez as a second piece, like you said, but a year from now he may have Matt Kemp status. You just dont know. Same with MArtinez, he could be a top 10 prospect within the next 2 years. The twins, or any team with a big star the Mets are interested in, could end up with the best package from the Mets because of the quantity, and the guys wont be less talented, just younger and further off. Pdubs, I agree with you, just keep your prosects and your 7 year 140 million dollar contract that Johan wants. I dont really even think its worth it. Picture signing a free agent, and giving up your best 3 or 4 prospects. Thats how I look at it.

couldn't the reds throw together a nice package?
Names like Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Travis Wood, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Drew Stubbs, Todd Frazier, Josh Hamilton....some kind of combo of those guys has to entice the Twins

i guess problems could be the contract situation or that johan may not want to play his home games at a launching pad