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« Rangers Rumors: Guardado, Cameron, Hamilton | Main | White Sox Sign Alexei Ramirez »
Today we had another bold swap of young players. The Rangers sent young pitchers Edinson Volquez and Danny Ray Herrera to the Reds for outfielder Josh Hamilton.
You all know the story with Hamilton. Former first overall pick by the Rays in '99, immensely talented. Derailed by drug problems for many years, then posted an incredible half season in the Majors for the Reds despite little experience above A ball. He put up a .922 OPS for the Reds, and seems like a great gamble by Jon Daniels despite health concerns. He'll turn 27 in May; hopefully the Rangers let him stay in center. Hamilton leaves a park that inflates left-handed home runs by about 28% to a park that inflates them by 24%. His departure clears a path for top prospect Jay Bruce.
Volquez, 24, is also immensely talented. He kept stalling at the big league level but finally seemed to figure it out in September. Baseball America calls his stuff "electric," describing a mid-90s heater paired with a mid-70s change-up. One concern here is that Volquez is a flyball pitcher. Wayne Krivsky took an interesting route to add an intriguing starter; I wonder if the move takes them out of the Erik Bedard sweepstakes. It's been speculated that the Reds could go after Mike Cameron to fill their new center field void.
Herrera, 23, is a southpaw relief prospect. Check out this info from Baseball America. He barely registers 5-foot-7, 145 pounds. He tops out at 84mph but throws some kind of screwball to offset the weak heat. This trick helped him post an 11.0 K/9 in Double A this year.
Baseball America rocks, check them out by the way. They've already got analysis of this deal up here.
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Yikes. The Bill James Handbook has Hamilton with a .979 OPS next year, so sweaterpants better have some serious faith in Volquez to unload that. Not to mention 2 more cost-controlled years even before Hamilton would have hit arbitration.
Sure Volquez is in a similar position, but (as much of a huge Dunn fan as I am) wouldn't you want to move him first? The Rangers are never afraid to burn away money, and Hamilton is looking like the much better overall player.
Krivdawg, what the hell are you thinking?
Posted by: Sean O | December 21, 2007 at 04:48 PM
Good trade for both? Reds needed pitching...is Volquez the goods? OF seems depleted now though.
Hamilton should thrive with that short porch in right.
Posted by: icantbelieveitsnotbittner | December 21, 2007 at 04:52 PM
What does this mean for Bruce? Ryan Freel? FA OF signing?
Posted by: icantbelieveitsnotbittner | December 21, 2007 at 04:56 PM
Hamilton will struggle once the AL gets a book on him. I'll tell ya right now....sliders in and changeups away. He is a good fastball hitter, and he'll jump off to a hot start in '08, but it won't last. Volquez will be another fringe pitching prospect in the AL who has a chance to dominate in the NL. His fastball is straight, but 94-98 MPH of straight is still good. His change is filthy, with more bottoming out than most changes you'll see. His curve is just average enough to work on the 7-8-9 hitters in the weak lineups he'll be facing. He should be there 4 or 5 starter come opening day. With Harang, Arroyo, Bailey and now Volquez.....you can tell Dusty's got a plan.
Posted by: Ad Rock | December 21, 2007 at 04:57 PM
Don't the rangers need pitching too
Posted by: PeteRose | December 21, 2007 at 05:38 PM
The Rangers are idiots because they still think Millwood/Padilla makes for a good top of the rotation. They have a few good young prospects to fight over the 5th job (Millwood, Padilla, B-Mac and K-Gabbs being the 1st 4). I think the Rangers should take more of an Billy Beane type mindset. No one in that division will take down the Angels, so rebuild. Silva is a worthless move for the M's and this is a lateral move for the Rangers. The A's have the right idea trading Haren. If only the Rangers could unload Millwood or Padilla on some sap of a GM, they'd be set.
Posted by: Ad Rock | December 21, 2007 at 05:44 PM
Any chance they use this to land Bedard? The O's wouldn't of wanted Hamilton, but they do want young pitching. That was my first reaction after seeing this trade.
Posted by: ultimatedub | December 21, 2007 at 05:49 PM
With the price of free agents I expect the Rangers to unload Padilla, maybe Millwood too.
Posted by: Mike Simms | December 21, 2007 at 06:18 PM
"If only the Rangers could unload Millwood or Padilla on some sap of a GM, they'd be set."
LOL...Why trade Millwood right now? He was TERRIBLE last year, they don't have any replacement for him, and they'd get absolutely nothing back in return. Hold onto him and hope he gets out to a good start this year, then move him. And you think they haven't tried to find somewhere for Padilla? If there was any type of value, he'd be gone by now...
Posted by: N41D | December 21, 2007 at 06:27 PM
wow, great trade for the Rangers. I can't believe that's all it took to get Hamilton. Volquez is not a sure thing by any means. Nice job Texas.
Posted by: UMterp | December 21, 2007 at 06:29 PM
Anyone can hit in that park, even a washed up Sosa hit some dingers and knocked in a few last year. Hamilton is a stud sure, but the Rangers need solid pitching ABOVE ALL OTHER FACETS OF THE GAME, adding more runs to the offense wont mean a damn thing when the pitching gives up a kings ransom of runs every game.
The Rangers remain one of the worst runs franchises in MLB. They need to be going pitching-heavy yet they think adding more hitters will compensate for their lack of pitching, it wont.
Posted by: Athletic Domination | December 21, 2007 at 06:41 PM
The only sure things about Hamilton is that he will get hurt (check out his minor league history along with last year) and he can't hit that outside pitch to save his life. Could be a nice trade for the Reds also.
Posted by: BuckiBlaze | December 21, 2007 at 06:43 PM
Mendoza, Galarraga, Loe, Hurley, Diamond, Rheinecker, Tejeda, Rupe, Murray....The Rangers have a truckload of AAAA pitchers, and Millwood and Padilla both had ERA's over 5 last year if I am not mistaken (Padilla's may have been over 6). Attention John Daniels..."YOU HAVE NO CHANCE IN THAT DIVISION". You could get "something" for these 2, and be better off if they got a marginal single A prospect for both. REBUILD RANGERS!!
Posted by: Ad Rock | December 21, 2007 at 06:44 PM
Are you kidding me? Wayne Krivsky has to be the worse gm in all of baseball. Hey Wayne, you just traded away a player with a ton of more talent than Jay Bruce for a pitcher who is no better than #4 in our rotation. Somebody please tell Wayne he is fired. Please dont lwt him trade any more young talent.....Hey Wayne how many times are you going to get taken to the cleaners? Way to trade for a minorleague player that tops out at 82 mph.. Can you say Dave Williams Reds Fans? Wayne get out of town and take Marvin Lewis with you.
Posted by: wire2wire | December 21, 2007 at 06:51 PM
my comment is simple.... why do the rangers keep acting like they dont need pitching?
Posted by: cityfield5 | December 21, 2007 at 07:02 PM
Great point.
And Hamilton...not risky at all.
Posted by: koch | December 21, 2007 at 07:10 PM
Honestly, some of you people are crazy. I'm not a fan of either, but I am a HUGE fan of baseball. This is a good trade for Cincinnati. You bitching and moaning fans about how Wayne Krivsky isnt a good GM are crazy. Hello Brandon Phillips! Bronson Arroyo has been good as well. The Reds have an abundance of Outfielders and Left handed hitters. They need pitching. I know Reds fans love Homer Bailey or they did until people turned on him after 9 starts. But him and Volquez have similar stuff. And for some of you to say Hamilton has a better upside than Jay Bruce.....JAY BRUCE....are you nuts? He's the #1 rated prospect in all of baseball. I know some of you reds fans have your heads on straight and can see that this is a good deal the Reds made. Hamilton isn't Miguel Cabrera people. You werent going to get 4 major league ready players for him. He's played half of a season in the Majors. Give me a break. I hope he does well, and he probably will be good, but I think regardless of how the trade ends up for the Reds, it was a good trade for them and their organization.
Posted by: dphill314 | December 21, 2007 at 07:24 PM
Wire2wire ummm... You need to look into things closer before you make such wild statements about Krivsky. I personally think Krivsky is one of the better NL GM's I personally like the move. Two pitchers for an single outfielder with injury history galore.
Your comment about the Herrera made me laugh. You don't always have to throw hard to be successful in the bigs especially if you have great movement and from what I am hearing this guy has a great sinker. I am a huge Hamilton fan and I am sad to see him go but to get two pitchers, one ranked as the best pitching prospect not that long ago. I don't know what these two will end up doing and neither do you but I have to say this
I wonder if this will be part of the puzzle to get Bedard or maybe Krivsky is stocking up pitching prospects. I don't really have a problem with that.
You can never have enough pitching.
I also kinda like the idea that was mentioned of bringing Mike Cameron back to Cincy. Kinda funny if Griffey and Cameron end up playing together since he was part of the deal to get Griffey Jr.
All in all I like the trade even though I will miss Hamilton. When he was healthy he played very well and well he was not healthy often enough. Good luck Hamilton just don't do well against the Reds if we play you.
Posted by: JayTheRed | December 21, 2007 at 07:29 PM
Well said dphill314 and JayTheRed. I for one am getting worn out by the whinning of some of my fellow Reds fans. What do you expect WK to do sit, around and do nothing so we can say " Wait till next year" again. I think this trade will work out for both teams.
Posted by: BuckiBlaze | December 21, 2007 at 07:38 PM
It’s interesting to read the comments in this thread, because there are folks think the Reds did better and folks who think the Rangers did better.
Here is my take on this. The Rangers get a guy who has a tremendous upside. They need pitching but they need a centerfielder. This is a guy who, if he remains healthy and that is truly the question, can be part of the core of the Rangers with Young, Kinsler, and Salty.
Now the Reds get a guy who won’t cost much for a while and who has the potential to be a legit #3-4 starter in the NL. But again it’s a risk. I think worst case he will be the Reds #5 and in the NL middle can be fairly successful.
Both teams took risks and I see this as a pretty good deal on both sides. If both live up to potential it’s the kind of trade that will be debated for a while.
I don’t think that in the AL Volquez would have lasted. He probably would do better in another NL Park but... he should do ok. And I just don’t know if Hamilton will stay healthy, but in Texas he will be given every opportunity to prove it, where in Cincy he might not, especially if he falters.
I think this is a pretty fair trade all the way around.
Posted by: Bleacher_Buddha | December 21, 2007 at 07:39 PM
I think this sets up a trade with Baltimore and Erik Bedard. The prospects from the Rangers are not ready for the majors, in my book, so I think it frees up Homer Bailey and/or Johnny Cueto go to the Orioles in a deal for Bedard. Dusty Baker prefers veterans, so I can't see him putting up with a guy like Volquez for 2008.
Posted by: wunderfull | December 21, 2007 at 07:42 PM
Any chance, like someone said earlier, that the Reds may be using Volquez to add to a potential Bedard deal? I wouldn't bank on Volquez being in the Reds rotation this year and MacPhail wasn't too interested in a high risk-very high reward player like Hamilton. He's trying to load up on pitching and Volquez would be a good 3rd player to say Bailey and Votto.
Posted by: epic | December 21, 2007 at 07:44 PM
I think this is a good trade. If you want to see what knowledgable Reds fans think go to www.redszone.com (I'm not advertising my own site)...
Posted by: *BaseClogger* | December 21, 2007 at 07:46 PM
I'm glad someone else sees this as a win/win. This isn't your older brother's Rangers, this offense is bad. Hamilton gives them a middle of the order bat at a position that the organization has always struggled to fill. Yes, there are injury/sobriety issues, but the fact is this adds a legitimate bat to the Ranger's lineup. The main part that worries me is that he hasn't fared well against lefties, but regardless, he will be an everyday starter.
On the flip side, the Reds had an abundance of outfielders, need a good young arm, and netted an extra reliever. They bought low on Hamilton and sold high. Good for them.
I like the trade on both sides.
Posted by: BrianTX | December 21, 2007 at 07:47 PM
And in regard to Bailey/Votto/Volquez.... I'd be all over that if I was Baltimore.
Posted by: BrianTX | December 21, 2007 at 07:49 PM
Volquez's ceiling is a #2 starter in the NL. He has nasty stuff and will probably breakout playing in a terrible division.
Like a wise poster in this thread said "you can never have enough pitching". Never, EVER trade a pitcher for a hitter.
Dumb trade for the Rangers, looks like the A's wrapped up 3rd or 2nd place with this deal, that shouldnt happen in a supposed rebuilding year.
Posted by: Athletic Domination | December 21, 2007 at 08:13 PM
And to those talking about getting Volquez to move in a Bedard deal....wouldnt Hamilton be a better fit for the Orioles as they currently do not have a CF? Bailey/Votto/Hamilton > Bailey/Volquez/Votto.
Posted by: Athletic Domination | December 21, 2007 at 08:17 PM
I agree BrianTX on 2 things. This isnt the 2003 rangers that will try to win by out hitting you. They need a bat and a CF this is a nice add for them. And that this totaly sets up a trade for Bedard. I just worry that Baker will do to Bedard what he did to Wood/Prior. Bailey/Votto/Volquez.. dang that is a haul for the O's.
A-D I agree that Volquez celing is high but.. he is less of a sure thing than Hamilton. Hamilton has injuries and deamons to deal with but.. Volquez still hasn't proved himself either. I still say this is a wash.
Posted by: Bleacher_Buddha | December 21, 2007 at 08:18 PM
I think the O's are rebuilding and they have a prospect they can bring in. I see the O's much like the A's. Lets get as much as we can, preferably pitching and see what we have in house. Then make moves when we know what we truly have. But... it is Andy MacPhail, so you never know. He may trade it all for the rights to Sosa... :-)
Posted by: Bleacher_Buddha | December 21, 2007 at 08:21 PM
I'd definitely classify this as a win-win. I'm a little sad to see the second third of the DVD go, but a fly-ball pitcher in that park is a no-no.
Posted by: jatorres | December 21, 2007 at 09:20 PM
Wk needs pitching, and doesnt want to break the bank. The Reds can compete with the current rotation as is, and gets better as time and experience passes.
A trade for Bedard is not likely anymore, but Ive been wrong before.
I see the Reds starting Bruce in SF, and the rotation being-
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Belisle
Cueto/Volquez
Posted by: GmblngPtchr20 | December 21, 2007 at 10:02 PM
"A trade for Bedard is not likely anymore, but Ive been wrong before."
If it can be a Bedard for Bailey/Volquez/Votto, how do you not make that in a second.
Harang/Bedard/Arroyo/scrub/scrub, kills Harang/Arroyo/bailey/whatever/whatever.
You need what 88-90 wins to nail down the Central, then a Harang/Bedard/Arroyo rotation can get you to the W.S. easy. Then get rolled on by the Sox or Tigers, but still its a hell of a leap. You make the trade.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | December 21, 2007 at 10:19 PM
Harang
Bailey
Arroyo
Cueto
Voloquez
Could be the rotation for years to come, and with the young hitters like Encarnacion, Phillips, Votto, and Bruce...and even Dunn who could be extended, the Reds have a very good nucleus of young players to compete in the NL Central for years to come.
Theres no reason when the Reds should sell the farm ofor two years of Bedard, instead of float around .500 then be REAL good for years after.
Posted by: GmblngPtchr20 | December 21, 2007 at 10:22 PM
I wouldn't say you guys are selling the farm. You're giving up Bailey, but would be getting Bedard in return, and you have Cueto in the wings. You give up Votto who's a very solid prospect. And you give up Volquez who you just got and is anything but a sure thing. The beginning of his year last year was horiffic, he did turn it around nicely though. What I'm saying is I wouldn't call him a sure thing. And sorry to say, but you gotta give up some quality to get quality.
Posted by: epic | December 21, 2007 at 10:40 PM
That being said, I don't think Bailey/Volquez/Votto should get it done, but who knows. If I was Baltimore I would start the conversation with Bruce and let Cincinnati keep Bailey and Votto. Bruce and some low level minor leaguers.
I'd ask for Bruce, Maloney who I would immediately make a reliever, Daryl Thomson, Norris Hopper, and Todd Frazier if he can be a PTBNL.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | December 21, 2007 at 10:45 PM
"and even Dunn who could be extended"
Dunn should command and deserve Texiera money, you think he is going to get it from Cincinnati?
"Theres no reason when the Reds should sell the farm ofor two years of Bedard, instead of float around .500 then be REAL good for years after."
That won't be selling the farm in the Bailey/Votto/Volquez, or my version of the deal. Prospects exist to develop and play to win or trade away for a chance to win. The Reds should be able to trade for Bedard, without gutting their ML franchise, flourish in the NL Central and rebuild their farm during Bedard's tenure. It's the same deal with the Detroit, or a Boston/Johan deal. You can trade alot of minor league talent, but minor league talent only exists to help the major league club. If you can trade Bailey+ or Bruce+ and have a chance to compete for championships cause of your return you do it. Ditching Hanley sucks, and hurts. Even today when I just look at the numbers he puts up, I wince. Then I google Julio Lugo, and I get a tear in my eye. Beckett and Lowell won me a championship it still stings to lose the minor league talent but you do it every day of the week and twice on sundays.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | December 21, 2007 at 10:59 PM
"it shouldnt surprise you the Rangers dropped out. i think what you were trying to say is that they "say" they're looking for good pitching, and then end up signing another bat or vincente padilla."
I posted that on the last Mark Prior thread stating that the Rangers had lost interest in him. I put it up this afternoon.
Low and behold, a few hours later, they traded for another bat.
Can't say I didn't see that one coming a mile away.
Posted by: Ya Hote Ta | December 22, 2007 at 12:56 AM
First of all, Bill James wildly overrates a lot of guys. I remember with the Cubs last year he projected some ridiculous numbers for Felix Pie and thought Rich Hill would lead the majors in K/9. Yuh-huh.
Second, Baseball America has been sappy in love with Edinson Volquez for a long time. Doesn't anyone remember all of the DVD hype (Diamond, Danks, Volquez)? I remember when BA had his ETA as breaking with the team in 2005. I think the Reds got the better of the deal but I also think it's hard to be as enthusiastic about Volquez as people were some three years ago. Maybe he can stop hitting a wall with his new team. In any event he looks like he could be an excellent reliever even if he doesn't succeed as a starter.
Posted by: DentalPlan | December 22, 2007 at 01:33 AM
Dunn is not going to get Teixeira money because he bleeds runs away with his outfield play, look at his FRAA.
Posted by: DentalPlan | December 22, 2007 at 01:35 AM
I think if the reds land cameron, which they should, then there is no need to do any more this offseason. Bedard only has 2 years left of service time, and is also an injury waiting to happen. GO young reds please, you could be this years cleveland indians. I wouldn't trade Bailey alone for Bedard. He has 5-6 years of service time and will be better then him in the not to distant future.
Posted by: PIERZYNSKI 4 PREZ | December 22, 2007 at 02:45 AM
Dont know much about Herrera at all, but the way he has been described, he seems like he can be a Doug Davisish type of pitcher. Small, crafty left hander who has that ability to strike out a lot of guys without anything overpowering at all, relying on deception and movement. I still love this deal for Texas. I would love to have control of Hamilton cheaply over the next 5 years while he is in his prime. He could be a big time fantasy guy hitting in the middle of the order behind Young and Kinsler and them.
Posted by: nrmax88 | December 22, 2007 at 09:22 AM
You wont trade Bailey for Bedard. Hmph. I would understand if you sai Johan instead of Bedard, because Johan is demanding a huge contract right now, but thats just stupid. Bedard is relatively cheap, and will immediately make the Reds the best team in the central, where they are only a team right now that might win the division, or might finish in last. Bedard is a stud, and Bailey isnt. Not yet. That is like me saying I wouldnt trade Pelfrey for Bailey. I would understand if you said Gallardo, Lincecum or Hughes, but Bailey hasnt done a thing yet at the ML level, he has big hype but so did Pelfrey last year, now nobody even wants him. I guess your username (pierzynski 4 prez), should speak to how much credibility you have. I would place a huge wager that Homer Bailey will never, for even one minute in his life, be better then Bedard is right now, let alone bve better then him at some time in the "not to distant future".
Posted by: nrmax88 | December 22, 2007 at 09:27 AM
Just for the record, I wouldnt trade Phil Humber for Pujols, Humber will be better in the not to distant future. Plus he has service time. Duh.
Posted by: nrmax88 | December 22, 2007 at 09:30 AM
The Rangers are about to trade David Murphy and Gerald Laird to the Brewers for Dave Bush/Chris Capuano.
Posted by: dstar442005 | December 22, 2007 at 11:30 AM
With Hamilton gone Bruce is definitley the future. Does that mean Freel is on the way out? Teams will definitley would have interest or had interest until his ACL injury. But i think they should put Bruce in CF from the start and roll with it. I like this trade for the Reds than the Rangers. Pitching, Pitching, Pitching is what wins.
Posted by: braves077 | December 22, 2007 at 11:31 AM
All this talk about Bedard to the Reds is just wishful thinking by Oriole fans. You're not getting Bruce and Co. for 2 years of him. Everyone knows he's headed for the B'Jay's when his contract is up.
Posted by: BuckiBlaze | December 22, 2007 at 01:21 PM
any chance TEX plays Hamilton in RF and Cruz in CF? i think Cruz would at least be LA in CF and Hamilton would stay healthier in RF. why not get Pierre for LF? they need a leadoff man
Posted by: maximumpotential | December 24, 2007 at 03:50 PM
LF-Pierre
SS-Young
RF-Hamilton
2B-Kinsler
C-Salty
DH-Bradley
3B-Blaylock
CF-Cruz
1B-Shelton
Posted by: maximumpotential | December 24, 2007 at 03:53 PM