Ian Snell, Jason Bay On Mariners' Radar?

That'd be very interesting. Perhaps the "cheap" alternative to Bedard for the M's? This could also signal that perhaps the Reds are getting close on Bedard, and the M's are almost completely out of it/unwilling to give up Morrow, etc.

Obviously if Jones is in, that's great, and I like Snell, but heck, even if Bavasi offers something like Clement/Balentien/one other prospect, I think Huntington should maybe jump.

That would really restock the Pirates offensively.

I can't imagine after moving hamilton the reds are really still in on bedard unless they move jay bruce. No way this happens anyway the pirates have a glutton of corner outfielders and snell is one of two really close to sure things in that rotation.

I'm torn on this one. Snell is exactly the kind of pitcher (throws strikes, stays healthy) the Pirates don't have in abundance. I don't think they'll move him unless they get a good young pitcher in return, and Morrow is the M's lone good upper-level pitching prospect who they won't move. Clement/Balentien might work, but I still say if they want a catching prospect then send Nady to the Padres for Nick Hundley.

To get Bedard for 2 controled years they'll have to go votto,encarnacion(I guess),Bailey, and Cueto and if I'm the orioles I still think I could do better. It could hav got done with Bruce,Votto,Bailey or Hamilton,Votto,Bailey,Encarnacion but if you don't have bruce in there some where I just don't see it.

DevO,

I agree, the Pirates should definitely be able to get more than just Jones for Snell. Snell showed a lot of improvement last year and is only 26 next year. The Mariners would get him below market value for his age 26-29 seasons. With his ability to miss bats, he's a #3 at worst. Pretty much any team would be happy with a sub 4 ERA and around 8 K/9 out of their #3. Plus, he has ace upside (still needs work on his 3rd pitch, and is more likely a #2). He made marked improvements last year in control (3.6 BB/9 in 2006 --> 2.9 BB/9 in 2007) and against lefties (.305/.380/.526 in 2006 --> .284/.352/.447 in 2007).

If the Pirates can't get more than just Adam Jones for him, then they shouldn't make the deal.

Personally (unlike Jake at Bucco's Blog), I think the Pirates and Mariners are a great match. The Mariners are desperate to win this year, the Pirates have no chance to win this year. The Mariners can probably still afford to take on some salary for 2008 and certainly for 2009 while the Pirates probably want to shed a little more salary and have a number of 5th year arbitration players (Nady, Sanchez, LaRoche) who are getting expensive. The Mariners want to improve their starting pitching and 2nd base (and maybe get another outfielder if they trade Jones or Balentien), the Pirates have Snell, Sanchez, and Bay/Nady. The Mariners have a good mix of near-MLB-ready talent (Jones/Clement/Balentien/Morrow) plus some younger prospects with lots of upside (Triunfel, Tillman, etc.) and the Pirates have a pretty bare farm outside of 3 players (McCutchen, Pierce, and Walker). Why wouldn't they be able to match up? Plus, if the Pirates do trade Snell, at least he's going to the AL where the fans won't see him as much if he does develop into a #1b or #2 starter.

If the Pirates acquire Jones, they could start him in CF this year and then shift him to right when McCutchen is ready, which is great because they could avoid rushing McCutchen. Or they could start him at AAA at SS to work on defense for a few months and see whether he can cut it there (this is what I'd do, as its a lot easier to find good hitting outfielders than shortstops with his offensive potential).

From the Mariners perspective, they can get Snell for a lot less MLB ready talent than Bedard, plus he's cheaper, plus he is under control for 4 more years. That's 4 years of a rotation with Felix and Snell, plus they have the money to make a run at some of the potential big-name free agents in 2008 and 2009.

Lots and lots of possibilities between these two teams.

I think Snell is terribly overrated. Look at his 2nd half splits this year, he had a 4.83 era and got knocked around a lot, he pitched in a pitchers park in the NL. There's a reason the Pirates are shopping him, calling him a cheaper alternative to Bedard is wrong, in the AL I wouldnt be suprised if his era was around 5.

How about Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, and a prospect for Snell and Nady.

I don't know about y'all, but it's fairly clear to me after the Silva signing that Bavasi likely is done stockpiling starting pitching for 2008. There are plenty of 5th-starter candidates in the M's system -- Morrow, Rowland-Smith, (shudder) HoRom -- and it doesn't seem as though Snell projects better than the lot of them in a stadium like Safeco. Trading Jones for him would be absurd, even if Bay were involved.

Now if Bavasi could get the Bucs to bite on Richie Sexson, we might have something to talk about.

H0RAT!0SANZSERIF, where in the world do you get the idea that Snell doesn't project better than HoRam or Rowland-Smith? Talk about just making things up! Morrow has talent, but is completely unproven against MLB hitters as a starter. Snell would likely be a vast improvement over the guys you mentioned for 2008.

Joe and gogopalehorse - I think Joe is closer than gogopalehorse. Nady is a league average corner outfielder. His defense is considerably worse than Jones, but there is no guarantee that Jones can be a league-average hitter in 2008. Of course, he has way, way, way more talent than Nady. But in the short term, he'd be a decent stop-gap if the Mariners trade Jones. Still, I would be surprised if the Mariners gave up 2 of their 3 best ML-ready prospects for Snell and Nady. Better bet would be Snell and Nady for Jones, plus 2-4 good prospects that aren't as close to the majors (Triunfel, Tillman, Ramirez, Aumont, Butler, etc.).

Re: "WHITESOX, what (other than 2nd half splits) makes you think Snell is terribly overrated? His 4.83 ERA looks bad in the 2nd half, but you are completely disregarding a 2.93 ERA before the break."

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So Snell has had one superb half-of-season in his 2 seasons as a starter? What makes you think that wasn't a fluke? Snell would most definitely be an improvement over any of Seattles in house candidates for 2008 but you don't go trading the best offensive prospect the Mariners have had since ARod for what projects to be a #3 starter.

The entire point of the Mariners showing interest in Snell is so they DON'T have to deal Jones since thats what the Bedard talks are surrounding. I really am curious what Snell is worth to Seattle. If the Bucs even mention Jones name without talking about Snell +, then Seattle should look elsewhere.

So many people underestimate Adam Jones. Scouts are saying his lowest projection is a Mike Cameron with a better average and slightly less of a defender but with a better arm and more power.

He has most often been comped with Eric Davis.

You don't deal a young Eric Davis for Ian Snell. Sorry.

I just think he's overrated, I saw him pitch a few times and just think he came back down to earth, I may be wrong and will admit that. I just think if I was the Bucs I would trade him while his value is so high.

And by the way, Jones is 21-22 years old. I agree, you don't trade a young Eric Davis for a no. 3/4 starter.

I have a few points about this possible trade, but before I get into that I just want to comment quickly on the preceived difference in leagues.

While having a DH in your lineup would be an advantage for an AL team, the reality is that this is compensated for by NL teams. If you look at the makeup of the senior circuit you'll notice that they favor offensive minded middle infielders and catchers more than the AL teams. The Mariners problem this year was that they had a horrible DH in Vidro and it cost them going to the playoffs, but even with their horrible pitching they would have easily won any of the NL divisions because their core of position players was stronger. The final point about the two leagues is that with one less hitter in the starting lineup the NL teams typically carry one more pitcher. This extra pitcher is usually what allows the managers to go to the bullpen sooner and in turn saves runs on the ERA for his staff. The pirates pitching was thin in July and August with Salomon Torres being on the DL twice and they overworked their bullpen. My guess would be that they kept Snell in the games after he was struggling and it led to a higher ERA. With a strong bullpen in Seattle, they would not have to push him for that extra two or three batters.

Snell would be a great addition to the Mariners. I have been very high on him for a couple years now and his numbers have improved in EVERY season since his cup of coffee four years ago. In fact, I would have rather had Snell and Bedard over one of the two and Silva. No offense to Carlos Silva, but he is not even worth 7MM a season. I would have thrown a 4/30MM (he may improve and pitching is going through inflation) contract on the table and told him to take it or leave it.

Talent is not everything. If you look at most lopsided trades, you'll realize that half the players teams were worried about dealing, were never able to translate their skills to the major leagues. Here are the trades I would make before the start of the spring training. I did one of these before Silva was signed, but this is my first since.

TRADE 1

Pittsburg Pirates get:
Adam Jones OF
Rob Johnson C
Chris Tillman RHP
Yung Chi-Chen 2B
Daniel Carroll OF
Cesar Jimenez LHP
Nolan Gallagher RHP

Seattle gets:
Jason Bay OF
Ian Snell RHP
Damaso Marte LHP

TRADE 2

Tampa Bay Rays get:
Jose Lopez 2B
Bryan LaHair 1B
Joseph Woerman RHP
Ryan Feierabend LHP
Kameron Mickolio RHP
Wladimir Balentien OF

Seattle gets:
Carlos Pena 1B
B.J. Upton IF/OF

2008 Seattle Mariners

Starting Lineup

Ichiro Suzuki CF
B.J. Upton 2B
Adrian Beltre 3B
Carlos Pena DH
Jason Bay RF
Raul Ibanez LF
Richie Sexson 1B
Kenji Johjima C
Yuniesky Betancourt SS

Bench

Jose Vidro IF
Jeremy Reed OF
Jeff Clement C/1B
Willie Bloomquist UTL

Starters
Felix Hernandez RHP
Ian Snell RHP
Jarrod Washburn LHP
Miguel Batista RHP
Carlos Silva RHP

Closer
J.J. Putz RHP

Bullpen

George Sherrill LHP
Brandon Morrow RHP
Damaso Marte LHP
Sean Green RHP
Eric O'Flaherty LHP
Sean White RHP

15 Remaining Players on the 40-man Roster

Pitchers

Cha Seung Baek RHP
Travis Chick RHP
R.A. Dickey RHP
Jon Huber RHP
Mark Lowe RHP
Horacio Ramirez LHP
Ryan Rowland-Smith LHP
Brad Thomas LHP
Jake Woods LHP

Catchers

Jamie Burke C

Infielders

Tug Hulett 2B
Oswaldo Navarro SS
Ronnie Prettyman 3B

Outfielders

Charlton Jimerson CF
Prentice Redman CF

Re: BaseballGuru. I don't like the Pirates deal. Tillman is probably our #1 pitching prospect and has more upside than Morrow. At least as a starter. Plus those deals are a little farfetched. I do that Tampa deal in a heartbeat but they wouldn't.

Re: basemonkey. Morrow's only real question is if he can develop his command and hold his own as a starter. He especially needs to work on his secondary pitches. Bavasi has already said he will break camp with the club when it would be much preferable for him to start at least half the season in AAA.

There is no question he has a plus plus fastball and still has trouble locating that. He is at worst a quality setup man or closer in the future.

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If you read that Prospect Insider article it seems that the Bucs are asking for about 10X what Snell is worth so I don't think we have to worry about a deal anytime soon. I think he said they asked for Jones, Morrow, Clement, and Truinfel JUST FOR SNELL. Good grief is that all? Probably our top 4 prospects for a guy who projects a #3?

Thats ridiculous to the point of being insulting.

Well, in terms of real life dollars and cents, 4 years of Snell, 1 of which is pre-arbitration, are worth more than 2 years of Bedard.

For instance, using Baseball Prospectus' MORP values (all calculated prior to 2007, so I expect both players' projected values to go up quite a bit), Snell would be worth $29 million for 2008-2011 (when he would reach free agency) while Bedard would be worth $19 million for 2008-2009. So while Bedard is worth more per season (he's a better pitcher, so this is obvious), Snell is worth more in terms expected value paid (actually paid over contract) versus value received (based on performance).

Simply put, despite the fact that Bedard will pitch better each season than Snell, Snell is worth more because he is locked up for 2 extra years. And those 2 years are very cheap (no arbitration and 1st year of arbitration).